Whatever the exact number of loses for Russia in terms of men and equipment, I think it is very clear it is much higher than their initial projections.
My current pet theory — I don't claim it's particularly good one because the number of things that no longer make any sense to me rises daily — is that Putin has deluded himself.
Putin seems to believe that anyone who speaks Russian, who is ethnically Russian*, who was born in Russia, of has Russian parents, or Russian family, or who lives in a place that was once Russian, is Russian. This is of course total nonsense in the way most people in the modern world see nationality. You can easily demonstrate this by telling an English speaking Australian, who has English parents, and English family, that they are English and should support the English cricket team. Be careful to stand at a considerable distance from you interlocutor when performing this dangerous experiment.
But if you actually thought they way Putin seem to think you can sort of vaguely see how restoring a Russian Empire might be a plausible idea, providing of course you don't give a damn about the human suffering and cost that such a plan will incur.
To most of us Putin and the way he seems to be looking at the world is simply nuts, and his plan doomed to fail no matter how much blood is spilt or treasure spent.
* I realise this is a massive oversimplifcation and that Russia is more diverse than generally understood.
Sinn Féin 33% (+9) Fine Gael 20% (-1) Fianna Fáil 17% (-5) Greens 5% (-2) Social Democrats 4% (+1) Labour 4 (nc) People Before Profit/Solidarity 3% (nc) Aontú 2 (nc) others/independents 11% (-3)
(Red C/Business Post; 23 February 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
That is a terrible poll for both FG and FF even though Sinn Fein is 'only' on 33% . Would be nice to see some properly detailed seat/constituency projections.
Sinn Féin 63 +26 Fine Gael 40 +6 Fianna Fáil 34 -3 Independents 8 -12 Social Democrats 5 -1 Green Party 3 -9 PBP/Solidarity 3 -2 Labour 3 -4 Aontú 1 nc Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
So in other words the governing Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on 74 and SF are on 63.
Add in the Independents to FG and FF and they have 82 seats and a majority
LOL.
Not the remotest chance.
The only stable coalition on those figures would be SF + FF, on the assumption that FF are much more likely to form a coalition with SF than FG.
Why would they do that when they are already in government with FG and could govern with them again with Independents.
FG and FF may even move closer to form one united party of the centre right in the Republic of Ireland with SF the main party of the left
The Independents are not a homogenous group. You'd never get all of them supporting the same government, and any prospective Taoiseach would have to be certifiable to entertain the possibility of relying on the Healy-Raes for support.
The suggestion is instant proof that you know nothing about Irish politics.
Given FG and FF are 11 seats ahead of SF they do not even need all Independents to back them.
The fact you are a leftwing SF supporter who gets annoyed when facts are pointed out to them does not change that. Ideologically too FG and FF are far closer to each other than SF now, hence they are both in government
I'm not a left-wing SF supporter. If I was voting in an Irish election my initial choices on the ballot would most likely be the Greens, SocDems and Labour (not sure in what order), and I'm not sure if I would include SF lower down in my preference list at all - some of the stories about the way in which they treat party members who "step out of line" have me a bit concerned about their lack of tolerance for dissent.
If there wasn't a coalition between FF and SF there would soon be another election.
A FG and FF and SocDem and some Independents deal is more likely.
In fact within 10 years FF and FG may merge to form a new centre right party v SF. Given they no longer are the first and second party in Ireland and ideologically there was never much difference between them anyway bar FG was a little more economically liberal and FF a little more socially conservative, that would make sense
FG and FF merging makes obvious sense to everyone - except for FG and FF. The coalition hasn't exactly fostered a collegiate atmosphere for a variety of reasons. It seems to be something that is simultaneously obvious, and yet impossible.
I'm not sure why you've now added the SocDems into a coalition with FF & FG. I guess it's just because they have the highest number of TDs in the projection, so it makes the numbers add up nicely for you.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
There's a lot of very shaken everyone-else too. The Russians have no idea how bad this is going to be. A couple of days and they're on their knees. I don't think they realise that ordinary people, say like me, will never enter into a business relationship with a Russian ever again, or at least until they have no weapons of any kind. I plan not to even speak to Russians until Putin is gone.
I don't like being shaken or threatened, and fair or unfair I hold absolutely all Russians responsible.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
I'm tempted to say cancel the gas contracts now and hasten Putin's end. They could be reinstated by the end of the month if something resembling a functioning sane regime was in place in the Kremlin. Obviously in the medium term Germany will now pull away from its RU gas policy, but the short term fix for currency would help a new RU.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
It seems to me those convoy troops must be getting rather fed up, and cold. How motivated will they be when they get there?
It is around freezing and quite windy and snowing in Kyiv. You need to keep the engine on the stay warm. After two weeks in the field, you really have to wonder if the reason the Ukrainians have kept these guys alive is that they are already looking mutinous.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
I can't believe that the wily old fox Levrov is happy with this shit, never mind a load of other Russian senior types I have never heard of.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
It seems to me those convoy troops must be getting rather fed up, and cold. How motivated will they be when they get there?
It is around freezing and quite windy and snowing in Kyiv. You need to keep the engine on the stay warm. After two weeks in the field, you really have to wonder if the reason the Ukrainians have kept these guys alive is that they are already looking mutinous.
Or the reason they've not moved is that they already have mutinied.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
It seems to me those convoy troops must be getting rather fed up, and cold. How motivated will they be when they get there?
It is around freezing and quite windy and snowing in Kyiv. You need to keep the engine on the stay warm. After two weeks in the field, you really have to wonder if the reason the Ukrainians have kept these guys alive is that they are already looking mutinous.
Spending the Ukrainian war safely parked in a lay-by is not a bad outcome for a Russian soldier.
Forbes @Forbes · 1h Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's 512-foot yacht has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg. https://trib.al/QrcDw35
Richard_Tyndall said Whilst I do like Housman, my preference is for John Clare
The Spring comes in with all her hues and smells, In freshness breathing over hills and dells; O’er woods where May her gorgeous drapery flings, And meads washed fragrant by their laughing springs. Fresh are new opened flowers, untouched and free From the bold rifling of the amorous bee. The happy time of singing birds is come, And Love’s lone pilgrimage now finds a home; Among the mossy oaks now coos the dove, And the hoarse crow finds softer notes for love. The foxes play around their dens, and bark In joy’s excess, ’mid woodland shadows dark. The flowers join lips below; the leaves above; And every sound that meets the ear is Love.
Yes. Poems like that make me want to get out and blend with the countryside, just as Clare was inspired and calmed to do.
I will arise and go now, and go to Innisfree, And a small cabin build there, of clay and wattles made; Nine bean-rows will I have there, a hive for the honey-bee, And live alone in the bee-loud glade.
And I shall have some peace there, for peace comes dropping slow, Dropping from the veils of the morning to where the cricket sings; There midnight’s all a glimmer, and noon a purple glow, And evening full of the linnet’s wings.
I will arise and go now, for always night and day I hear lake water lapping with low sounds by the shore; While I stand on the roadway, or on the pavements grey, I hear it in the deep heart’s core.
Forbes @Forbes · 1h Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's 512-foot yacht has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg. https://trib.al/QrcDw35
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
I can't believe that the wily old fox Levrov is happy with this shit, never mind a load of other Russian senior types I have never heard of.
For those who can understand Russian, this is Lavrov in 2018 saying that going to war would be a "nervous breakdown" and a sign of weakness, and that if they want to keep Ukraine as a neutral country, they need to make sure the population feels comfortable.
Forbes @Forbes · 1h Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's 512-foot yacht has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg. https://trib.al/QrcDw35
< I guess here the key is China. On the face of it, a war is bad for business, when the global supply chain is already messed up. But loaning Russia money, like they do in Africa, that might be rather tempting. Also China don't have any issue doing business with dodgy regimes under the table, like they do with North Korea (often via Russia).
We were discussing this at the PB "do" this evening.
This is a real opportunity for Xi - IF he can broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine (even if that involves splashing the Chinese cash freely) he will emerge with a seriously enhanced reputation.
That could also open the door for a genuine Sino-American rapprochement in the Pacific or at least a toning down of the Taiwan rhetoric which may not be comfortable for Pyongyang (one of the "naughty five"). At the very least, we may be at the dawn of a new bi-polar world order with the Americans and Chinese facing each other (hopefully in amity) in the Pacific and poor old Eurasia, for the first time in centuries, on the wrong side of the world.
There's also the question of Eritrea, another country on the naughty step. Will we see a more concerted effort against that deeply unpleasant regime of Afwerki perhaps involving direct military aid to Ethiopia and Tigray?
There is near zero chance of Xi giving up Chinese claims over Taiwan
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
The abstention list is a useful repository of safe places to escape to if things take a thermonuclear turn. Of the ones on the list, well we all know Sri Lanka has nice hotels and catering. A few like Armenia or Tajikistan are too close to the action. I think I'd probably still risk a far-away green tick location. Chile, Singapore or New Zealand.
Some of the greens are quite surprising too. Serbia I suppose had little choice. UAE voted for here, yet abstained at the security council so someone has been having a word. The most amusing must be Afghanistan. Cheers, Talibs!
Afghanistan was not just a yes but a co-sponsor. That is gobsmacking.
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
The abstention list is a useful repository of safe places to escape to if things take a thermonuclear turn. Of the ones on the list, well we all know Sri Lanka has nice hotels and catering. A few like Armenia or Tajikistan are too close to the action. I think I'd probably still risk a far-away green tick location. Chile, Singapore or New Zealand.
Some of the greens are quite surprising too. Serbia I suppose had little choice. UAE voted for here, yet abstained at the security council so someone has been having a word. The most amusing must be Afghanistan. Cheers, Talibs!
Afghanistan was not just a yes but a co-sponsor. That is gobsmacking.
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
The abstention list is a useful repository of safe places to escape to if things take a thermonuclear turn. Of the ones on the list, well we all know Sri Lanka has nice hotels and catering. A few like Armenia or Tajikistan are too close to the action. I think I'd probably still risk a far-away green tick location. Chile, Singapore or New Zealand.
Some of the greens are quite surprising too. Serbia I suppose had little choice. UAE voted for here, yet abstained at the security council so someone has been having a word. The most amusing must be Afghanistan. Cheers, Talibs!
Afghanistan was not just a yes but a co-sponsor. That is gobsmacking.
Given the history of Russian occupation in Afghanistan it wasn't that surprising. The Taliban hate the Russians even more than the Americans
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
It seems to me those convoy troops must be getting rather fed up, and cold. How motivated will they be when they get there?
It is around freezing and quite windy and snowing in Kyiv. You need to keep the engine on the stay warm. After two weeks in the field, you really have to wonder if the reason the Ukrainians have kept these guys alive is that they are already looking mutinous.
Or the reason they've not moved is that they already have mutinied.
Looking at the Kiev weather forecast it could be getting colder next week. Down to -8 at night. I presume it won't be much warmer in the convoy further north. How do soldiers generally stay warm.
Forbes @Forbes · 1h Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's 512-foot yacht has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg. https://trib.al/QrcDw35
It’s one way to expand their navy.
It's also one way to find out what sort of surveillance kit they have on board....
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
It seems to me those convoy troops must be getting rather fed up, and cold. How motivated will they be when they get there?
It is around freezing and quite windy and snowing in Kyiv. You need to keep the engine on the stay warm. After two weeks in the field, you really have to wonder if the reason the Ukrainians have kept these guys alive is that they are already looking mutinous.
Spending the Ukrainian war safely parked in a lay-by is not a bad outcome for a Russian soldier.
Well, it's just another boring exercise as far as most of them know.
Whatever the exact number of loses for Russia in terms of men and equipment, I think it is very clear it is much higher than their initial projections.
Putin seems to believe that anyone who speaks Russian, who is ethnically Russian*, who was born in Russia, of has Russian parents, or Russian family, or who lives in a place that was once Russian, is Russian. This is of course total nonsense in the way most people in the modern world see nationality. You can easily demonstrate this by telling an English speaking Australian, who has English parents, and English family, that they are English and should support the English cricket team. Be careful to stand at a considerable distance from you interlocutor when performing this dangerous experiment.
But if you actually thought they way Putin seem to think you can sort of vaguely see how restoring a Russian Empire might be a plausible idea, providing of course you don't give a damn about the human suffering and cost that such a plan will incur.
Of course a bad Austrian painter had a similar idea once when it came to Germany. The idea hasn’t been very much in vogue since then until Mr Putin brought it back.
Some very shaken Russians out there. The sanctions have only been hitting for a day or so and the situation is already quite bad, the banks are on their knees and no payment system is working. The Russian economy is coming to a standstill, all contracts void and no money in or out. The revenge of Western Capitalism has been next level in how to crush a medium sized power. There is real shell shock. There is still the possibility that the gas contracts with Germany are concelled and then there will be no foreign exchange at all and that will bring total chaos.
The vote in the UN was another utter disaster and has rammed home the effective cancellation of Russia around the planet. Eritrea, North Korea, Belarus and Syria are all basket cases and it is a complete diplomatic rout for Russia.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are not only holding on, but actually able to mount offensive operations, albeit limited. Hundreds of Stingers will end any advantage Russia has in the air, and soon the long range artilliary that is pounding Kharkhiv will itself come under attack. The steady flow of kit and other support for the Ukrainians is gathering force, even as the Russian forces face increasing problems in the north and east. The longer "the column" is stationary the closer we are getting to a what could become a comprehensive defeat of Russian forces. They are two days away from Kyiv, but have been now for four days.
Navalny´s call for protest will have an impact. We watch and pray, but something big seems to be brewing across the border.
It seems to me those convoy troops must be getting rather fed up, and cold. How motivated will they be when they get there?
It is around freezing and quite windy and snowing in Kyiv. You need to keep the engine on the stay warm. After two weeks in the field, you really have to wonder if the reason the Ukrainians have kept these guys alive is that they are already looking mutinous.
To keep that engine running to stay warm, you need fuel.
The fuel that is being picked off in supply convoy after supply convoy. And even with drone strikes of fuel trains within Russia itself.
If Corbyn had won in 2019 and become PM the UK would almost certainly have abstained on the UN resolution tonight at the General Assembly rather than voted to condemn Russia's invasion as it has done on the Security Council and in the General Assembly
He would have voted against and with Russia
I doubt he would have gone that far but we would have abstained and I expect Corbyn would in due course have pulled the UK out of NATO and scrapped Trident
All this tosh. Have you not noticed how weak is the clown despite a majority of eighty? Corbyn would have been constrained by the majority of his MPs if not by the LibDems and/or SNP as well.
Whatever the exact number of loses for Russia in terms of men and equipment, I think it is very clear it is much higher than their initial projections.
My current pet theory — I don't claim it's particularly good one because the number of things that no longer make any sense to me rises daily — is that Putin has deluded himself.
Putin seems to believe that anyone who speaks Russian, who is ethnically Russian*, who was born in Russia, of has Russian parents, or Russian family, or who lives in a place that was once Russian, is Russian. This is of course total nonsense in the way most people in the modern world see nationality. You can easily demonstrate this by telling an English speaking Australian, who has English parents, and English family, that they are English and should support the English cricket team. Be careful to stand at a considerable distance from you interlocutor when performing this dangerous experiment.
But if you actually thought they way Putin seem to think you can sort of vaguely see how restoring a Russian Empire might be a plausible idea, providing of course you don't give a damn about the human suffering and cost that such a plan will incur.
To most of us Putin and the way he seems to be looking at the world is simply nuts, and his plan doomed to fail no matter how much blood is spilt or treasure spent.
* I realise this is a massive oversimplifcation and that Russia is more diverse than generally understood.
Reminds you of the ironic saying in Soviet Times, that ‘elephants are Russian’.
If Corbyn had won in 2019 and become PM the UK would almost certainly have abstained on the UN resolution tonight at the General Assembly rather than voted to condemn Russia's invasion as it has done on the Security Council and in the General Assembly
He would have voted against and with Russia
I doubt he would have gone that far but we would have abstained and I expect Corbyn would in due course have pulled the UK out of NATO and scrapped Trident
All this tosh. Have you not noticed how weak is the clown despite a majority of eighty? Corbyn would have been constrained by the majority of his MPs if not by the LibDems and/or SNP as well.
Johnson got Brexit done by winning a majority and deselecting anti Brexit Tory MPs.
Corbyn would have deselected pro Trident and pro NATO Labour MPs in due course had he win a majority
BBC reckons that millions of Russians are turning to them for news on the war. A similar thing happened in Germany towards the end of world war II. Be nice if it was true. How does Putin tolerate them broadcasting there?
On the years to come narrative - how are Russians now going to afford a years long campaign when their economy is screwed. Putin survives due to a huge security state that he pays for. He won't be able to pay them anymore. Unless they take the Aleppo approach (heaven help us) they will be run out very very quickly.
I guess here the key is China. On the face of it, a war is bad for business, when the global supply chain is already messed up. But loaning Russia money, like they do in Africa, that might be rather tempting. Also China don't have any issue doing business with dodgy regimes under the table, like they do with North Korea (often via Russia).
Russia has money. They have massive USD reserves they saved up just for this.
The problem they have is that no-one will sell them stuff. So, those oil wells are dependent on Schlumberger and Halliburton kit: without it, output starts to dip.
Have the Chinese not stolen their tech yet?
Probably but it is kind of pointless. This technology is sold - or rather rented - as a package. Tools, operators, interpretation, experience etc. It is not just a physical product that is sold on the open market. And no one internationally will look at a technology that has clearly been lifted from another oil field company. So it is kind of pointless for China to spend the millions building their own tools based on stolen technology because no one will buy them. Oil Companies pay for the experienced operators as much as the tools themselves. And that is one thing the Chinese can't replicate and pass off as their own.
BBC reckons that millions of Russians are turning to them for news on the war. A similar thing happened in Germany towards the end of world war II. Be nice if it was true. How does Putin tolerate them broadcasting there?
This is London calling, London calling.
Our funding has been shut down by Nadine Dorries and we are therefore replacing this shortwave broadcast with Nick Ferrari on LBC.
If Corbyn had won in 2019 and become PM the UK would almost certainly have abstained on the UN resolution tonight at the General Assembly rather than voted to condemn Russia's invasion as it has done on the Security Council and in the General Assembly
He would have voted against and with Russia
I doubt he would have gone that far but we would have abstained and I expect Corbyn would in due course have pulled the UK out of NATO and scrapped Trident
All this tosh. Have you not noticed how weak is the clown despite a majority of eighty? Corbyn would have been constrained by the majority of his MPs if not by the LibDems and/or SNP as well.
Johnson got Brexit done by winning a majority and deselecting anti Brexit Tory MPs.
Corbyn would have deselected pro Trident and pro NATO Labour MPs in due course had he win a majority
Of course by deselecting them he would no longer have a majority!
If Corbyn had won in 2019 and become PM the UK would almost certainly have abstained on the UN resolution tonight at the General Assembly rather than voted to condemn Russia's invasion as it has done on the Security Council and in the General Assembly
He would have voted against and with Russia
I doubt he would have gone that far but we would have abstained and I expect Corbyn would in due course have pulled the UK out of NATO and scrapped Trident
All this tosh. Have you not noticed how weak is the clown despite a majority of eighty? Corbyn would have been constrained by the majority of his MPs if not by the LibDems and/or SNP as well.
Johnson got Brexit done by winning a majority and deselecting anti Brexit Tory MPs.
Corbyn would have deselected pro Trident and pro NATO Labour MPs in due course had he win a majority
Of course by deselecting them he would no longer have a majority!
He would have after the next general election even if Labour gained no more seats. Deselected Labour MPs would have been replaced by Corbyn loyalist Labour MPs
"In the current situation, I have therefore taken the decision to sell the Club"
"RA adds: "I will not be asking for any loans to be repaid."
"I have instructed my team to set up a charitable foundation where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine."
£2-3bn will be a good start in terms of reparations.
Weasel words.
He’s transferring the loans to the buyer - they will pay him face value for them.
Hmmm… how do you know he’s not converting them to equity?
He might be but would be less tax efficient.
I have a company worth $3bn with $1bn in equity and $2bn in shareholder loans
Pay me $3bn and I’ll transfer you the shares and the loans. I won’t ask the company to repay the loans…
Indeed that makes sense. If the club isn't going to repay loans then isn't that essentially Abramovich 'gifting' £1.5bn to Chelsea? How does that possibly fit with the bad joke that is called Financial Fair Play?
He also gets to offset interest payments (whether cash or not) against taxable profits
If Corbyn had won in 2019 and become PM the UK would almost certainly have abstained on the UN resolution tonight at the General Assembly rather than voted to condemn Russia's invasion as it has done on the Security Council and in the General Assembly
He would have voted against and with Russia
I doubt he would have gone that far but we would have abstained and I expect Corbyn would in due course have pulled the UK out of NATO and scrapped Trident
All this tosh. Have you not noticed how weak is the clown despite a majority of eighty? Corbyn would have been constrained by the majority of his MPs if not by the LibDems and/or SNP as well.
Johnson got Brexit done by winning a majority and deselecting anti Brexit Tory MPs.
Corbyn would have deselected pro Trident and pro NATO Labour MPs in due course had he win a majority
Of course by deselecting them he would no longer have a majority!
He would have after the next general election even if Labour gained no more seats. Deselected Labour MPs would have been replaced by Corbyn loyalist Labour MPs
You are a complete idiot. This parallel universe where Corbyn wins a majority, delivers a Commons majority for policies such as leaving NATO and backing Russia in the war, despite expelling over a hundred of his own MPs, and then wins re-election with a set of left-wing candidates, how far away is it?
You have no understanding of real world politics at all.
If Corbyn had won in 2019 and become PM the UK would almost certainly have abstained on the UN resolution tonight at the General Assembly rather than voted to condemn Russia's invasion as it has done on the Security Council and in the General Assembly
He would have voted against and with Russia
I doubt he would have gone that far but we would have abstained and I expect Corbyn would in due course have pulled the UK out of NATO and scrapped Trident
All this tosh. Have you not noticed how weak is the clown despite a majority of eighty? Corbyn would have been constrained by the majority of his MPs if not by the LibDems and/or SNP as well.
Johnson got Brexit done by winning a majority and deselecting anti Brexit Tory MPs.
Corbyn would have deselected pro Trident and pro NATO Labour MPs in due course had he win a majority
Of course by deselecting them he would no longer have a majority!
He would have after the next general election even if Labour gained no more seats. Deselected Labour MPs would have been replaced by Corbyn loyalist Labour MPs
You are a complete idiot. This parallel universe where Corbyn wins a majority, delivers a Commons majority for policies such as leaving NATO and backing Russia in the war, despite expelling over a hundred of his own MPs, and then wins re-election with a set of left-wing candidates, how far away is it?
You have no understanding of real world politics at all.
Had Corbyn won a majority in 2019 the cancellation of Trident and the UK leaving NATO would have been very close.
It was only Boris and the Tories landslide victory in 2019 which ensured Corbynism was defeated
Comments
Putin seems to believe that anyone who speaks Russian, who is ethnically Russian*, who was born in Russia, of has Russian parents, or Russian family, or who lives in a place that was once Russian, is Russian. This is of course total nonsense in the way most people in the modern world see nationality. You can easily demonstrate this by telling an English speaking Australian, who has English parents, and English family, that they are English and should support the English cricket team. Be careful to stand at a considerable distance from you interlocutor when performing this dangerous experiment.
But if you actually thought they way Putin seem to think you can sort of vaguely see how restoring a Russian Empire might be a plausible idea, providing of course you don't give a damn about the human suffering and cost that such a plan will incur.
To most of us Putin and the way he seems to be looking at the world is simply nuts, and his plan doomed to fail no matter how much blood is spilt or treasure spent.
* I realise this is a massive oversimplifcation and that Russia is more diverse than generally understood.
I'm not sure why you've now added the SocDems into a coalition with FF & FG. I guess it's just because they have the highest number of TDs in the projection, so it makes the numbers add up nicely for you.
I don't like being shaken or threatened, and fair or unfair I hold absolutely all Russians responsible.
Forbes
@Forbes
·
1h
Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's 512-foot yacht has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg. https://trib.al/QrcDw35
And a small cabin build there, of clay and wattles made;
Nine bean-rows will I have there, a hive for the honey-bee,
And live alone in the bee-loud glade.
And I shall have some peace there, for peace comes dropping slow,
Dropping from the veils of the morning to where the cricket sings;
There midnight’s all a glimmer, and noon a purple glow,
And evening full of the linnet’s wings.
I will arise and go now, for always night and day
I hear lake water lapping with low sounds by the shore;
While I stand on the roadway, or on the pavements grey,
I hear it in the deep heart’s core.
https://www.tiktok.com/@noizovich/video/7070221783009479941
The fuel that is being picked off in supply convoy after supply convoy. And even with drone strikes of fuel trains within Russia itself.
Could the Russian winter do for yet another army?
That's a surprise. They are horribly isolated.
Corbyn would have deselected pro Trident and pro NATO Labour MPs in due course had he win a majority
Russian police arrest Elena Osipova for protesting in Saint Petersburg against the war.
She is a survivor of the Siege of Leningrad, which lasted 2 years and 4 months, claiming the lives of more than 1 million Russians.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499139576518131715
Our funding has been shut down by Nadine Dorries and we are therefore replacing this shortwave broadcast with Nick Ferrari on LBC.
“Cycle lanes are a disgrace, amiright?”
An inva vodka pkacs in Edinburgh. My GF is hot, my frienda are mental.
Viva la Ukraine
I love PB
You have no understanding of real world politics at all.
It was only Boris and the Tories landslide victory in 2019 which ensured Corbynism was defeated