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Off to PB’s 18th birthday party – politicalbetting.com
Off to PB’s 18th birthday party – politicalbetting.com
I’m just leaving to get the train to London for this evening’s 18th Birthday party which is being held at the Smarkets offices, 1 Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks, London E1W 1AZ.
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Protesters set tents and chairs alight outside country’s parliament building as riot police move to break up three-week-long demonstration
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/fire-clashes-bring-violent-end-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-mandate/
Thanks to Mike and the rest of the team for providing us all with this great site. And thanks to all the posters who keep me informed, entertained and occasionally shouting at my laptop!
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
Given the fact absolutely no-one likes the Russians and few of the Russian soldiers seem to wish to be there retain the land they win is going to be hard work as a minimum and probably impossible.
Meanwhile…
There are questions you don’t have good answers to.
“You are on Putin’s kill list, how do you feel about that?”
“Well, Im also on Ukraine’s top 10 bachelorette’s list. Hope it balances it out” 🤦♂️❤️🇺🇦 https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1499052367861489677/video/1
FPT:
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499041554350198791
Good short thread just pulling together some thoughts on the 'what next' for occupied Ukrainian cities.
Basically: Ukrainian civil authorities will be of no help, and Russians have neither the time or money to set up parallel structures.
Either they need to garrison the city, or just accept that they'll lose control the moment they leave. If they garrison they can either set up a green zone, and cede the rest of the city to the Ukrainians, or try aggressive patrols and checkpoints. The former results in almost self-sieging, the latter is very attritional. In order to just to provide security to a people you need about 1 soldier for every 50 residents, but maybe as low as 1:20 if there's an active insurgency. For Kherson (pop: 300,000) that's about 6,000-15,000 troops.
The maths doesn't work, even if you use the most generous possible assumption of 1:50. Oh, and you need to find a way to supply them.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-nato-stop-the-war_uk_621f8e0ae4b0ce76f63424fb
Well done Mike and team, would have loved to have been there but, you know…
At the outset of the war US/UK intel predicted 500,000 refugees and 50,000 casualties in the first week (IIRC). The refugee was guess was good, if anything an underestimate (the EU thinks 800,000 have already fled)
But 50,000 Ukrainians killed or injured? Nowhere near that, even if we believe the official estimates are underplaying the human toll (which they probably are, to prevent panic)
This suggests that Putin's killing machine has not yet got into gear, but that, if and when it does, it will be hideous
@visegrad24
Ukrainian migrants working in Ireland flew back home to fight against the Russians.
Here is a short message from them:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499040742634885120
Do you mean Ukraine, or the party?
But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.
A few year later, communism collapsed.
Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.
Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1498944099520368641/photo/1
You could argue that our sanctions and announcements increasing defence spending will probably do the same again.
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1498838724423172096?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1498838724423172096|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=
If 4% or whatever of the nation did what the Russians, then the Russians could give them guns and police uniforms and that would help them a lot with the manpower. The Russians probably will not stop anybody who wants from leaving, and that could remove the people most incline to oppose the Russians.
I really don't know, the Ukrainian resistance so far has far exceeded almost all outside expectation, but predicting what might happen is very hard.
An unpostponeable appointment at 2 pm in Ashington precludes my attendance.
Have an absolute ball.
At least there's plenty to talk about.
Iraq.
"Mark Kelly🇬🇧@MarkKL29·3mMoment when an airstrike hit city council building in Kharkiv, Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/MarkKL29/status/1499055959813017602?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg
There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.
Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?
You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.
We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.
No drunk dials/posts.
@Leon no sober dials/posts.
.
There's now no reliable figure for casualties (eg) in Kharkiv, since the fairly indiscriminate bombardment started, which is when civilian casualties start to escalate, and the Ukraine authorities are quite clear that they for now are no longer able to give those numbers.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Definitely NSFW
Putin turns the country into a slaughterhouse
https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1499046478148509698?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg
(Yes, I'm a STEM person with a non-real - academic - job and I'm pontificating on social media. Exception that proves the rule and so on...)
Apologies
However the US is weary after its post 9/11 wars and that is understandable and will not go beyond sanctions on Russia. That does not mean Putin is going to march through NATO nations but it does mean we may be entering another period of stand off as was the case in the Cold War with no sign of a Thatcher or Reagan on the western side on the horizon
They must have heard about the PB event.
Attack the Elite, Comrades !!!
"We have asked NATO [for a no-fly zone over Ukraine]. They are considering... But from a professional view, there are also alternative mechanisms for ensuring the safety of Ukrainian airspace. This is the first priority in all negotiations..." MFA Kuleba
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1499038720686796801
We NEED to see what is happening, and we NEED to be distressed and upset - and righteously furious
Yes, of course, if this was just a random murder or a traffic accident, why post it? Macabre. But this is a deliberate unprovoked war on civilians and it is only the bloody brutal photos and videos that bring home the horror
I hope that all of you going have a great night
@FirstSquawk
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS THERE SHOULD BE A SET OF WEAPONS SPECIFIED THAT CAN NEVER BE DEPLOYED IN UKRAINE - IFAX
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS MOSCOW'S AIM IS DEMILITARISATION OF UKRAINE BUT UKRAINIANS MUST DECIDE ON THEIR OWN LEADERS
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499053190335328256
NATO is acting and aiding the Ukrainians who are fighting well. You trying to spread misinformation that its not happening doesn't make it right.
Have fun everyone who goes.
I appreciate flint knapping is a very visceral activity but for example a wordsmith might be expected to appreciate this.
The humanities graduates only have stuff to write about because of science graduates.
I note there is no numbers for total captured. is this because using that number would be against the Geneva convention? or if not why not?
Another plus is their quiet determination to put reliability above speed and sensation. C4 has also been good.
Photo Belsat TV
#StandWithUkraine https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1499061341348376577/photo/1
NEW: The weapons Germany promised (anti-tanks and stingers) have been handed over to #Ukraine (per DPA reporting).
Berlin’s offer was only made on Saturday. Remarkable speed given it took a MONTH for the helmets to get there! 🇩🇪🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/trent_murray/status/1499051291552722946
Not that they are leading to mass illness there – really the problem there seems to be the mindset rather than the severity of the outbreak.
https://samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan-c?utm_source=twitter&s=r
His best case long term scenario now is Crimea accepted as Russian but with a free and Western-oriented Ukraine. Personally I think this would be a mistake as it would still reward his tyrannical invasion.
*taps nose* remember, uniforms should not be worn, mufti very much required.
Real help like the vast amounts of munitions the whole of NATO is sending to Ukraine?
Real help like the severe sanctions the whole of the West is imposing on Russia?
Help is going, so the only reason to be opposing signalling our support seems to me that you oppose the support that is happening.
It's the 71st day of winter...
Are they? On day 1 they said with a straight face Ukraine needed to decide its own future.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Jacinda-Ardern-Leading-Supriya-Vani/dp/0861540301
I don’t know if they even collate numbers of prisoners back up the chain of command.
Apparently today the Ukranians have requested the UNHCR to collect Russian bodies from the border, as the Russians have decided they don’t want them back
The occupied zone was half the country, and 1/3 of the population - say 13 million.
At the end of 1941 there were 100k Germans in the occupied zone when it had calmed down from the invasion, with the resistance movements we know about.
Ukraine has a population of 44 million.
Area of Ukraine = approx 4x the area of the occupied zone of France.