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Off to PB’s 18th birthday party – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,847
edited March 2022 in General
Off to PB’s 18th birthday party – politicalbetting.com

I’m just leaving to get the train to London for this evening’s 18th Birthday party which is being held at the Smarkets offices, 1 Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks, London E1W 1AZ.

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

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    ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,522
    Have fun
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,568
    edited March 2022
    Not first.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,454
    Now old enough to legally drink...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,454
    Fire and clashes bring violent end to New Zealand Covid vaccine mandate protests

    Protesters set tents and chairs alight outside country’s parliament building as riot police move to break up three-week-long demonstration

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/fire-clashes-bring-violent-end-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-mandate/
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fire and clashes bring violent end to New Zealand Covid vaccine mandate protests

    Protesters set tents and chairs alight outside country’s parliament building as riot police move to break up three-week-long demonstration

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/fire-clashes-bring-violent-end-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-mandate/

    Just as cases are rocketing up: 24,106 cases today. for contest that's more than NZ had from the start of the pandemic up until the 16 Feb 2022.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,225
    There is a thread on twitter about how hard it will be retain control even after Russia occupies a town / city. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499037729165881349 shows the scale of the problem Russia has for different reasons.

    Given the fact absolutely no-one likes the Russians and few of the Russian soldiers seem to wish to be there retain the land they win is going to be hard work as a minimum and probably impossible.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,454
    edited March 2022
    BigRich said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fire and clashes bring violent end to New Zealand Covid vaccine mandate protests

    Protesters set tents and chairs alight outside country’s parliament building as riot police move to break up three-week-long demonstration

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/fire-clashes-bring-violent-end-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-mandate/

    Just as cases are rocketing up: 24,106 cases today. for contest that's more than NZ had from the start of the pandemic up until the 16 Feb 2022.
    South Korea currently being hit very hard. Just had 200k+ cases in a day.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,225
    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    I thought you would have been going?
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,598
    Have a cracking night everyone!

    Meanwhile…



  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    I thought you would have been going?
    Someone would try to dox me. Tsk
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,981
    SandyRentool said:

    Let's all raise a glass to PB.

    Thanks to Mike and the rest of the team for providing us all with this great site. And thanks to all the posters who keep me informed, entertained and occasionally shouting at my laptop!

    I read that as shouting at your lollipop and I haven't had my anesthetic yet.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,665
    WTF?

    There are questions you don’t have good answers to.

    “You are on Putin’s kill list, how do you feel about that?”
    “Well, Im also on Ukraine’s top 10 bachelorette’s list. Hope it balances it out” 🤦‍♂️❤️🇺🇦     https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1499052367861489677/video/1
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,205
    Enjoy everyone!

    FPT:

    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499041554350198791

    Good short thread just pulling together some thoughts on the 'what next' for occupied Ukrainian cities.

    Basically: Ukrainian civil authorities will be of no help, and Russians have neither the time or money to set up parallel structures.

    Either they need to garrison the city, or just accept that they'll lose control the moment they leave. If they garrison they can either set up a green zone, and cede the rest of the city to the Ukrainians, or try aggressive patrols and checkpoints. The former results in almost self-sieging, the latter is very attritional. In order to just to provide security to a people you need about 1 soldier for every 50 residents, but maybe as low as 1:20 if there's an active insurgency. For Kherson (pop: 300,000) that's about 6,000-15,000 troops.

    The maths doesn't work, even if you use the most generous possible assumption of 1:50. Oh, and you need to find a way to supply them.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,665
    John McDonnell pulls out of Stop The War rally, just days after he withdrew his name from a Stop The War letter. Looks like Labour's under new management, right enough.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-nato-stop-the-war_uk_621f8e0ae4b0ce76f63424fb
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    I thought you would have been going?
    Someone would try to dox me. Tsk
    So pretend to be someone else
    You could pretend to be one of the posters on hear that we had that no longer posts? LOL
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,665
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    I thought you would have been going?
    Someone would try to dox me. Tsk
    So pretend to be someone else
    Dress like S. K. Tremayne
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,584
    Enjoy tonight everyone who is going. I'm not able to make the trip but I shall raise a glass in solidarity with Mike and 18 years of PB!!!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,151
    edited March 2022
    Enjoy the party, and congratulations to PB for being old enough to vote, and to bet!

    Well done Mike and team, would have loved to have been there but, you know…
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,007
    eek said:

    There is a thread on twitter about how hard it will be retain control even after Russia occupies a town / city. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499037729165881349 shows the scale of the problem Russia has for different reasons.

    Given the fact absolutely no-one likes the Russians and few of the Russian soldiers seem to wish to be there retain the land they win is going to be hard work as a minimum and probably impossible.

    Yes, these phrases "taken a city" and "under Russian control" bear thinking about as to what they actually mean. Control what? Enforced how?
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,142
    What's the minimum safe distance when it all kicks off? :)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    One mystery in Ukraine is the relatively LOW numbers of Ukrainian casualties

    At the outset of the war US/UK intel predicted 500,000 refugees and 50,000 casualties in the first week (IIRC). The refugee was guess was good, if anything an underestimate (the EU thinks 800,000 have already fled)

    But 50,000 Ukrainians killed or injured? Nowhere near that, even if we believe the official estimates are underplaying the human toll (which they probably are, to prevent panic)

    This suggests that Putin's killing machine has not yet got into gear, but that, if and when it does, it will be hideous
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,584
    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    Ukrainian migrants working in Ireland flew back home to fight against the Russians.

    Here is a short message from them:

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1499040742634885120
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    I thought you would have been going?
    Someone would try to dox me. Tsk
    So pretend to be someone else
    I could pretend to be Mike Smithson. That would fuck with everyone's brain. Because, actually, I AM MIKE SMITHSON
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Flatlander said:

    What's the minimum safe distance when it all kicks off? :)

    1 astronomical unit

    Do you mean Ukraine, or the party?
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    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,151
    Ukranian official numbers for Russian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1498944099520368641/photo/1

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,007
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    I thought you would have been going?
    Someone would try to dox me. Tsk
    Just dox them back if so. They'll soon learn.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,804
    Enjoy it guys, sorry not to be there.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,904
    I'll be there in spirit. Meaning not there. Unfortunately.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,904
    Sandpit said:

    Ukranian official numbers for Russian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1498944099520368641/photo/1

    No way of knowing if even close, but as noted before even exagerrated x3 that would be a sizable loss for a modern war.
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    ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,522
    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    Actually it forced the Soviets to spend even more on military programmes, further warping their economies and hastening the collapse. It was clever.

    You could argue that our sanctions and announcements increasing defence spending will probably do the same again.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,804
    Sandpit said:

    Ukranian official numbers for Russian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1498944099520368641/photo/1

    People are trying to find the location of this, supposedly a drone strike on a convoy:

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1498838724423172096?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1498838724423172096|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,142
    IshmaelZ said:

    Flatlander said:

    What's the minimum safe distance when it all kicks off? :)

    1 astronomical unit

    Do you mean Ukraine, or the party?
    The party. Someone is bound to start a riot over a dodgy Scottish sub-sample.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    eek said:

    There is a thread on twitter about how hard it will be retain control even after Russia occupies a town / city. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499037729165881349 shows the scale of the problem Russia has for different reasons.

    Given the fact absolutely no-one likes the Russians and few of the Russian soldiers seem to wish to be there retain the land they win is going to be hard work as a minimum and probably impossible.

    Maybe, the danger is we tell ourselves things we want to here.

    If 4% or whatever of the nation did what the Russians, then the Russians could give them guns and police uniforms and that would help them a lot with the manpower. The Russians probably will not stop anybody who wants from leaving, and that could remove the people most incline to oppose the Russians.

    I really don't know, the Ukrainian resistance so far has far exceeded almost all outside expectation, but predicting what might happen is very hard.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,727
    Everyone have a great time.
    An unpostponeable appointment at 2 pm in Ashington precludes my attendance.
    Have an absolute ball.
    At least there's plenty to talk about.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,998
    Flatlander said:

    What's the minimum safe distance when it all kicks off? :)

    It's near Tower Bridge I believe, so anywhere outside Greater London should be fairly safe.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,386
    Chameleon said:

    Enjoy everyone!

    FPT:

    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499041554350198791

    Good short thread just pulling together some thoughts on the 'what next' for occupied Ukrainian cities.

    Basically: Ukrainian civil authorities will be of no help, and Russians have neither the time or money to set up parallel structures.

    Either they need to garrison the city, or just accept that they'll lose control the moment they leave. If they garrison they can either set up a green zone, and cede the rest of the city to the Ukrainians, or try aggressive patrols and checkpoints. The former results in almost self-sieging, the latter is very attritional. In order to just to provide security to a people you need about 1 soldier for every 50 residents, but maybe as low as 1:20 if there's an active insurgency. For Kherson (pop: 300,000) that's about 6,000-15,000 troops.

    The maths doesn't work, even if you use the most generous possible assumption of 1:50. Oh, and you need to find a way to supply them.

    It only works if the population welcome you as liberators and with open arms.
    Oh, Vlad, what have you got yourself into?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,007
    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,023
    Really gutted not to be able to make it - enjoy, everyone!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,727
    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    There is a thread on twitter about how hard it will be retain control even after Russia occupies a town / city. https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499037729165881349 shows the scale of the problem Russia has for different reasons.

    Given the fact absolutely no-one likes the Russians and few of the Russian soldiers seem to wish to be there retain the land they win is going to be hard work as a minimum and probably impossible.

    Yes, these phrases "taken a city" and "under Russian control" bear thinking about as to what they actually mean. Control what? Enforced how?
    Yeah.
    Iraq.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    Imagine living in a city where THIS happens

    "Mark Kelly🇬🇧@MarkKL29·3mMoment when an airstrike hit city council building in Kharkiv, Ukraine"

    https://twitter.com/MarkKL29/status/1499055959813017602?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg
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    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.

  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,998
    edited March 2022
    Off topic, but I notice that today's reported deaths with/from Covid are 651 for the last seven days. I think this is the first time for several months that the weekly average has been under 100 per day. Some good news, at least.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Leon said:

    Imagine living in a city where THIS happens

    "Mark Kelly🇬🇧@MarkKL29·3mMoment when an airstrike hit city council building in Kharkiv, Ukraine"

    https://twitter.com/MarkKL29/status/1499055959813017602?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg

    Never mind, the Ukrainian ambassador got a massive clap from the HoC, and that makes it all better.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,879
    Leon said:

    One mystery in Ukraine is the relatively LOW numbers of Ukrainian casualties

    At the outset of the war US/UK intel predicted 500,000 refugees and 50,000 casualties in the first week (IIRC). The refugee was guess was good, if anything an underestimate (the EU thinks 800,000 have already fled)

    But 50,000 Ukrainians killed or injured? Nowhere near that, even if we believe the official estimates are underplaying the human toll (which they probably are, to prevent panic)

    This suggests that Putin's killing machine has not yet got into gear, but that, if and when it does, it will be hideous

    It's getting into gear.
    There's now no reliable figure for casualties (eg) in Kharkiv, since the fairly indiscriminate bombardment started, which is when civilian casualties start to escalate, and the Ukraine authorities are quite clear that they for now are no longer able to give those numbers.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,611
    edited March 2022
    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.

    I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    More terrible images from Ukraine

    Definitely NSFW

    Putin turns the country into a slaughterhouse


    https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1499046478148509698?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,142
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.

    I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
    Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Northern_Al said:

    Off topic, but I notice that today's reported deaths with/from Covid are 651 for the last seven days. I think this is the first time for several months that the weekly average has been under 100 per day. Some good news, at least.

    Yes only 42 Covid Deaths in England reported today compared to 140 last Wednesday.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,912
    northern_monkey said:

    Have a cracking night everyone!

    Meanwhile…



    The STEM folks of course have 'real jobs' and are too busy to be pontificating on social media :wink:

    (Yes, I'm a STEM person with a non-real - academic - job and I'm pontificating on social media. Exception that proves the rule and so on...)
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,977
    Leon said:

    More terrible images from Ukraine

    Definitely NSFW

    Putin turns the country into a slaughterhouse


    https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1499046478148509698?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg

    Every conflict, road traffic collision, train or plane crash, murder, rape, etc has horrific images. It really does serve no purpose to post them.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,526
    I should know better than to make plans. In spite of having bought my train tickets I will not be coming tonight. Bloody drilling causing issues once again so I will be sat on my computer watching people ignore my advice - as usual.

    Apologies
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,611
    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.

    Biden is the most isolationist US President since Carter, his actions in withdrawing from Afghanistan and now his ruling out airstrikes and military involvement in Ukraine show that.

    However the US is weary after its post 9/11 wars and that is understandable and will not go beyond sanctions on Russia. That does not mean Putin is going to march through NATO nations but it does mean we may be entering another period of stand off as was the case in the Cold War with no sign of a Thatcher or Reagan on the western side on the horizon
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,782
    FPT
    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Malmesbury said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    DavidL said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    As If Londoners needed any more reason to loathe the Tube driving strikers bringing misery to commuters

    Turns out their Union is pro-Putin and Stop The War


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/01/enemy-underground-putin-apologists-brought-london-standstill/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    Automated trains. Now. Stop messing about.
    You can automate stand-alone systems. Which the London Underground isn't.
    What do you mean by stand-alone systems? The DLR is automated and seems to work fine with several branch lines etc. It doesn't seem that different to the Tube, except when it was built. I am not arguing, because I don't know enough about it, but what is the difference?
    The DLR is a stand-alone system. Its trains run on its tracks and only its tracks. No other trains run on its tracks - stand-alone.

    London Underground is not a stand-alone system. The sub-surface lines operate over and interact with National Rail tracks and vice-versa. Even the tube lines plug into NR metals - Bakerloo north of Queens Park being one example. And then plug into each other with tube and sub-surface trains running on the same physical tracks operating different lines.

    Whats worse, because the network was built by different companies to different standards at different times, there are existing incompatibilities between very similar-looking trains on very similar-looking routes (e.g. Central and Northern), made all the more fun by the various hidden connections between lines (e.g. the Kings Cross loop connecting Euston Northern Line and Kings Cross Piccadilly lines).

    So the simple reality is that endless anti-union posts demanding Automated Trains. Now. Is literally messing about because its simply not possible to implement driverless operation without £vast spent on separating the infrastructure before you spent £vast on a giant computer system and then a new fleet of trains on all lines.

    Final point. This giant computer to drive your Automanted Trains. Now. They don't like complex. One of the reasons why Crossrail is so late and so over budget is that the system combines multiple signalling systems on different parts of the network. The interface between them so that the computer is able to hand a train over safely from system to system has to be robust and fail-safe or there is a big bang and deaths...
    There are various claims floating around about the "New Tube For London" trains - that they will have the capability to run driverless. Is this the usual weasel words stuff? Leaving out the "..if you completely re-engineer the signalling and the lines and the platforms...."??
    Driverless? No. Automated Train Operation? Yes. As has been the case since 1968. Most of the tube lines have at least sections of ATO operation. So the new trains will continue to operate ATO but will be able to go fully automatic as and when the infrastructure allows which will be in 20never.
    Another thing to note about the DLR is that whilst it is 'driverless', every train should have a crew member on board - a train captain. They earn less than a tube driver, but it's still quite a cost.

    So it needs to be made clear whether you are talking about 'driverless' or 'crewless' trains. The latter is where the money is really saved, but is much, much harder to get to. If you still need a crew member on the train, then the savings are just not there.
    I see there's another strike on.

    They must have heard about the PB event.

    Attack the Elite, Comrades !!!
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,879
    edited March 2022
    Not quite sure what this means from Ukraine minister.

    "We have asked NATO [for a no-fly zone over Ukraine]. They are considering... But from a professional view, there are also alternative mechanisms for ensuring the safety of Ukrainian airspace. This is the first priority in all negotiations..." MFA Kuleba
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1499038720686796801
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,124
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    More terrible images from Ukraine

    Definitely NSFW

    Putin turns the country into a slaughterhouse


    https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1499046478148509698?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg

    Every conflict, road traffic collision, train or plane crash, murder, rape, etc has horrific images. It really does serve no purpose to post them.
    I utterly disagree. It is the images that have angered the world. Words do not cut it

    We NEED to see what is happening, and we NEED to be distressed and upset - and righteously furious


    Yes, of course, if this was just a random murder or a traffic accident, why post it? Macabre. But this is a deliberate unprovoked war on civilians and it is only the bloody brutal photos and videos that bring home the horror
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,611
    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.

    I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
    Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
    Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,386
    George Monbiot taking his fellow travellers to task over pushing Putin's lines.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/02/russian-propaganda-anti-imperialist-left-vladimir-putin

    More of this, please. Shake yourself out of the rut of defending your tribespeople and say it loud when they are wrong about something.
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 835
    Have a nice evening, to all that are going. As a humble lurker I won't be there (maybe next year), but I have changed my profile pic in honour of PB's birthday. I think I've lurked through 8 or 9 of them so far!
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,068
    Happy 18th PB

    I hope that all of you going have a great night :+1:
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,327
    Interesting sign of Russia significantly walking back its demands:

    @FirstSquawk
    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS THERE SHOULD BE A SET OF WEAPONS SPECIFIED THAT CAN NEVER BE DEPLOYED IN UKRAINE - IFAX

    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS MOSCOW'S AIM IS DEMILITARISATION OF UKRAINE BUT UKRAINIANS MUST DECIDE ON THEIR OWN LEADERS

    https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499053190335328256
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446
    Congrats to Mike and to PB, have fun tonight.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,792
    edited March 2022
    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.

    You're a Putin shill just like PJohnson it seems.

    NATO is acting and aiding the Ukrainians who are fighting well. You trying to spread misinformation that its not happening doesn't make it right.

    Have fun everyone who goes.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,977
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    More terrible images from Ukraine

    Definitely NSFW

    Putin turns the country into a slaughterhouse


    https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1499046478148509698?s=20&t=2LPFVqQJn9AdMYqx8Fbstg

    Every conflict, road traffic collision, train or plane crash, murder, rape, etc has horrific images. It really does serve no purpose to post them.
    I utterly disagree. It is the images that have angered the world. Words do not cut it

    We NEED to see what is happening, and we NEED to be distressed and upset - and righteously furious


    Yes, of course, if this was just a random murder or a traffic accident, why post it? Macabre. But this is a deliberate unprovoked war on civilians and it is only the bloody brutal photos and videos that bring home the horror
    I suggest that those who are unable to assess the issues without such pictures are those who would likely be swayed one way or another on any given matter depending on what real or fake news they had seen most recently. By posting what you are posting (can you vouch for the authenticity) you are contributing to the problem not "opening peoples' eyes".

    I appreciate flint knapping is a very visceral activity but for example a wordsmith might be expected to appreciate this.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Sandpit said:

    Ukranian official numbers for Russian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1498944099520368641/photo/1

    Looks devastating for the Russian army, even if it cant be verified.

    I note there is no numbers for total captured. is this because using that number would be against the Geneva convention? or if not why not?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,432
    northern_monkey said:

    Have a cracking night everyone!

    Meanwhile…



    On a parallel subject this disaster might have quietened down some of the over vocal critics of the BBC. I wonder how many outfits would or could have produced Ed Stourton's R4 prog on the historical background to Ukraine (Ukraine: how did we get here) yesterday, free to air and accessible worldwide.

    Another plus is their quiet determination to put reliability above speed and sensation. C4 has also been good.

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,665
    Belarusians are blocking the movement of the railway to complicate the movement of military cargo. As a result, queues formed at the Minsk railway station
    Photo Belsat TV
    #StandWithUkraine     https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1499061341348376577/photo/1
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,118
    Getting a shift on:

    NEW: The weapons Germany promised (anti-tanks and stingers) have been handed over to #Ukraine (per DPA reporting).

    Berlin’s offer was only made on Saturday. Remarkable speed given it took a MONTH for the helmets to get there! 🇩🇪🇺🇦

    https://twitter.com/trent_murray/status/1499051291552722946
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,007
    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.
    You have slightly misinterpreted my concern. Biden's messaging is crystal clear - Ukraine and no further - and I believe him. I'm not worried he doesn't mean it. I'm worried Mad Vlad Putin might not 100% believe it. In which case we could have a terrible misunderstanding. And I'm not *that* worried, just a little bit worried. Now if your man was still in the White House it'd be different. Then I wouldn't be a little bit worried about where this was going. I'd be shitting bricks.
  • Options
    MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.

    You're a Putin shill just like PJohnson it seems.

    NATO is acting and aiding the Ukrainians who are fighting well. You trying to spread misinformation that its not happening doesn't make it right.

    Have fun everyone who goes.
    All I am trying to do is to agitate to get the Ukrainians some real help. Not virtue signalling claps in the House of Commons.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,422
    northern_monkey said:

    Have a cracking night everyone!

    Meanwhile…



    Erm…. the STEM folk are exactly the ones doing the lion’s share of the work on intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; as well as assessments on the Russian kit and calculations around logistics. They also designed and built NLAW, Javelin and the other kit.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,998
    rcs1000 said:

    northern_monkey said:

    Have a cracking night everyone!

    Meanwhile…



    Yeah, but without STEM, would there be any MLAWS?

    The humanities graduates only have stuff to write about because of science graduates.
    And without you science graduates us humanities graduates wouldn't have to worry about nuclear warfare.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,142
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.

    I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
    Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
    Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
    Feel free to argue that with the Met Office...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,618
    BigRich said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fire and clashes bring violent end to New Zealand Covid vaccine mandate protests

    Protesters set tents and chairs alight outside country’s parliament building as riot police move to break up three-week-long demonstration

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/fire-clashes-bring-violent-end-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-mandate/

    Just as cases are rocketing up: 24,106 cases today. for contest that's more than NZ had from the start of the pandemic up until the 16 Feb 2022.
    Yes, as bizarre as it might seem we are likely to reach 'crossover' with NZ in absolute daily numbers in the next few days, despite their having only 1/14th of our population.

    Not that they are leading to mass illness there – really the problem there seems to be the mindset rather than the severity of the outbreak.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    This is an excellent overview of the state of play in Ukraine. Putin's first two plans have fallen apart and there is no chance at victory for him long term, although there is likely to be vast amounts of suffering before Putin gets to that conclusion.

    https://samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan-c?utm_source=twitter&s=r

    His best case long term scenario now is Crimea accepted as Russian but with a free and Western-oriented Ukraine. Personally I think this would be a mistake as it would still reward his tyrannical invasion.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,422
    edited March 2022
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting sign of Russia significantly walking back its demands:

    @FirstSquawk
    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS THERE SHOULD BE A SET OF WEAPONS SPECIFIED THAT CAN NEVER BE DEPLOYED IN UKRAINE - IFAX

    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS MOSCOW'S AIM IS DEMILITARISATION OF UKRAINE BUT UKRAINIANS MUST DECIDE ON THEIR OWN LEADERS

    https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499053190335328256

    How about nuclear weapons? We, the US, and the Russians could guarantee Ukrainian independence and security in exchange for it never having nuclear weapons. We could sign it in Budapest.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_xP said:

    Belarusians are blocking the movement of the railway to complicate the movement of military cargo. As a result, queues formed at the Minsk railway station
    Photo Belsat TV
    #StandWithUkraine     https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1499061341348376577/photo/1

    I've been wondering how close the family, cultural and other links are between Belarus and Ukraine. I would imagine pretty close, given that their languages are similar and that they were both part of the USSR (and various predecessor empires) for so long. Does anyone here know more about this aspect?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,829
    Enjoy yerselves, and if anyone batters someone else pls film the event.

    *taps nose* remember, uniforms should not be worn, mufti very much required.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,792
    MISTY said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.

    You're a Putin shill just like PJohnson it seems.

    NATO is acting and aiding the Ukrainians who are fighting well. You trying to spread misinformation that its not happening doesn't make it right.

    Have fun everyone who goes.
    All I am trying to do is to agitate to get the Ukrainians some real help. Not virtue signalling claps in the House of Commons.
    Real help like the seven years of sending munitions and training to Ukraine from the UK?
    Real help like the vast amounts of munitions the whole of NATO is sending to Ukraine?
    Real help like the severe sanctions the whole of the West is imposing on Russia?

    Help is going, so the only reason to be opposing signalling our support seems to me that you oppose the support that is happening.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,233
    Scott_xP said:

    John McDonnell pulls out of Stop The War rally, just days after he withdrew his name from a Stop The War letter. Looks like Labour's under new management, right enough.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-mcdonnell-nato-stop-the-war_uk_621f8e0ae4b0ce76f63424fb

    Labours under new management, hard right enough.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,618
    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    Okay, I'll bite – that's because it isn't.

    It's the 71st day of winter...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,904
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting sign of Russia significantly walking back its demands:

    @FirstSquawk
    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS THERE SHOULD BE A SET OF WEAPONS SPECIFIED THAT CAN NEVER BE DEPLOYED IN UKRAINE - IFAX

    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS MOSCOW'S AIM IS DEMILITARISATION OF UKRAINE BUT UKRAINIANS MUST DECIDE ON THEIR OWN LEADERS

    https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499053190335328256


    Are they? On day 1 they said with a straight face Ukraine needed to decide its own future.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,420
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Enjoy

    Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...

    It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.

    I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
    Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
    Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
    But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,716
    edited March 2022
    Interesting that it's now Lavrov giving out all the demands. If "Ukrainians must choose their own leaders" is classic Putin-speak, I'm Edna O'Brien.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    kinabalu said:

    MISTY said:

    When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.

    But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.

    A few year later, communism collapsed.

    Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.

    Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.

    The other one is Alan Partridge?
    No its you actually.

    There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.

    Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?

    You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.

    We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.

    Biden is the most isolationist US President since Carter, his actions in withdrawing from Afghanistan and now his ruling out airstrikes and military involvement in Ukraine show that.

    However the US is weary after its post 9/11 wars and that is understandable and will not go beyond sanctions on Russia. That does not mean Putin is going to march through NATO nations but it does mean we may be entering another period of stand off as was the case in the Cold War with no sign of a Thatcher or Reagan on the western side on the horizon
    Biden is just a middle way interventionist between the peaceniks and the war mongers. Get out of stupid unwinnable wars for out if the way armpits like Afghanistan. Aggressively support democracies facing unprovoked attacks from right wing fascists like Putin.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,904
    biggles said:

    northern_monkey said:

    Have a cracking night everyone!

    Meanwhile…



    Erm…. the STEM folk are exactly the ones doing the lion’s share of the work on intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; as well as assessments on the Russian kit and calculations around logistics. They also designed and built NLAW, Javelin and the other kit.
    As a history graduate, this is absolutely not the time I would seek to one up those with actually worthwhile education.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,233
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fire and clashes bring violent end to New Zealand Covid vaccine mandate protests

    Protesters set tents and chairs alight outside country’s parliament building as riot police move to break up three-week-long demonstration

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/fire-clashes-bring-violent-end-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-mandate/

    One for the bargain bucket at Woolies.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Jacinda-Ardern-Leading-Supriya-Vani/dp/0861540301
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,151
    BigRich said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukranian official numbers for Russian casualties.

    https://twitter.com/armyinformcomua/status/1498944099520368641/photo/1

    Looks devastating for the Russian army, even if it cant be verified.

    I note there is no numbers for total captured. is this because using that number would be against the Geneva convention? or if not why not?
    Can’t say I’m too much of an expert of the Geneva Convention as it applies to prisoners of war. I’m better suited to searching obscure requests on Ukranian social media. Well, my wife is anyway…

    I don’t know if they even collate numbers of prisoners back up the chain of command.

    Apparently today the Ukranians have requested the UNHCR to collect Russian bodies from the border, as the Russians have decided they don’t want them back :cry: The cowards don’t even want to give their own soldiers and families the dignity of a funeral.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,782
    Chameleon said:

    Enjoy everyone!

    FPT:

    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1499041554350198791

    Good short thread just pulling together some thoughts on the 'what next' for occupied Ukrainian cities.

    Basically: Ukrainian civil authorities will be of no help, and Russians have neither the time or money to set up parallel structures.

    Either they need to garrison the city, or just accept that they'll lose control the moment they leave. If they garrison they can either set up a green zone, and cede the rest of the city to the Ukrainians, or try aggressive patrols and checkpoints. The former results in almost self-sieging, the latter is very attritional. In order to just to provide security to a people you need about 1 soldier for every 50 residents, but maybe as low as 1:20 if there's an active insurgency. For Kherson (pop: 300,000) that's about 6,000-15,000 troops.

    The maths doesn't work, even if you use the most generous possible assumption of 1:50. Oh, and you need to find a way to supply them.

    For a very rough comparator, France had a population of around 42 million in 1939 falling to about 38-39 million by 1945 (many fled or deported or in forced-Labour).

    The occupied zone was half the country, and 1/3 of the population - say 13 million.

    At the end of 1941 there were 100k Germans in the occupied zone when it had calmed down from the invasion, with the resistance movements we know about.

    Ukraine has a population of 44 million.

    Area of Ukraine = approx 4x the area of the occupied zone of France.
This discussion has been closed.