Belarusians are blocking the movement of the railway to complicate the movement of military cargo. As a result, queues formed at the Minsk railway station Photo Belsat TV #StandWithUkraine https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1499061341348376577/photo/1
O that is good news, well done to the brave people of Belarusia
Never mind, the Ukrainian ambassador got a massive clap from the HoC, and that makes it all better.
No, what will make it all better will be the withdrawal of abusive invaders, for a war to address the deep psychological issues of the flabby chested, doped up Russian despot.
When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.
But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.
A few year later, communism collapsed.
Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.
Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
The other one is Alan Partridge?
No its you actually.
There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.
Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?
You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.
We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.
You're a Putin shill just like PJohnson it seems.
NATO is acting and aiding the Ukrainians who are fighting well. You trying to spread misinformation that its not happening doesn't make it right.
Have fun everyone who goes.
All I am trying to do is to agitate to get the Ukrainians some real help. Not virtue signalling claps in the House of Commons.
Real help like the seven years of sending munitions and training to Ukraine from the UK? Real help like the vast amounts of munitions the whole of NATO is sending to Ukraine? Real help like the severe sanctions the whole of the West is imposing on Russia?
Help is going, so the only reason to be opposing signalling our support seems to me that you oppose the support that is happening.
Britain’s One Web satellite launch on Russian rockets (due this Saturday) has been SCRAPPED after Moscow demanded Britain sell their shares & guarantees given that satellites won’t be used for military purposes
Belarusians are blocking the movement of the railway to complicate the movement of military cargo. As a result, queues formed at the Minsk railway station Photo Belsat TV #StandWithUkraine https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1499061341348376577/photo/1
O that is good news, well done to the brave people of Belarusia
Down with Putin. Down with Lukashenko. Glory to free Ukraine. Glory to free Belarus.
Looks devastating for the Russian army, even if it cant be verified.
I note there is no numbers for total captured. is this because using that number would be against the Geneva convention? or if not why not?
Can’t say I’m too much of an expert of the Geneva Convention as it applies to prisoners of war. I’m better suited to searching obscure requests on Ukranian social media. Well, my wife is anyway…
I don’t know if they even collate numbers of prisoners back up the chain of command.
Apparently today the Ukranians have requested the UNHCR to collect Russian bodies from the border, as the Russians have decided they don’t want them back The cowards don’t even want to give their own soldiers and families the dignity of a funeral.
I appreciate that you are involved via your family but that last point. I think a multitude of sins can hide behind "apparently". This one sounds unlikely, tbh.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
Erm…. the STEM folk are exactly the ones doing the lion’s share of the work on intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; as well as assessments on the Russian kit and calculations around logistics. They also designed and built NLAW, Javelin and the other kit.
As a history graduate, this is absolutely not the time I would seek to one up those with actually worthwhile education.
"The difference between science and the fuzzy subjects is that science requires reasoning, while those other subjects merely require scholarship"
Looks devastating for the Russian army, even if it cant be verified.
I note there is no numbers for total captured. is this because using that number would be against the Geneva convention? or if not why not?
Can’t say I’m too much of an expert of the Geneva Convention as it applies to prisoners of war. I’m better suited to searching obscure requests on Ukranian social media. Well, my wife is anyway…
I don’t know if they even collate numbers of prisoners back up the chain of command.
Apparently today the Ukranians have requested the UNHCR to collect Russian bodies from the border, as the Russians have decided they don’t want them back The cowards don’t even want to give their own soldiers and families the dignity of a funeral.
I appreciate that you are involved via your family but that last point. I think a multitude of sins can hide behind "apparently". This one sounds unlikely, tbh.
When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.
But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.
A few year later, communism collapsed.
Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.
Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
It's really not. But please don't let that worry you.
Off topic, but I notice that today's reported deaths with/from Covid are 651 for the last seven days. I think this is the first time for several months that the weekly average has been under 100 per day. Some good news, at least.
And it shouldn't need saying but the date of death has been under a hundred for a while.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Don't start that nonsense.
By that logic "midsummer's day" is the first day of summer.
Still. Even if you assume that, the Russians have taken quite a battering, particularly their armored vehicles. (And one would assume, the people inside them.)
When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.
But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.
A few year later, communism collapsed.
Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.
Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
The other one is Alan Partridge?
No its you actually.
There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.
Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?
You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.
We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.
Biden is the most isolationist US President since Carter, his actions in withdrawing from Afghanistan and now his ruling out airstrikes and military involvement in Ukraine show that.
However the US is weary after its post 9/11 wars and that is understandable and will not go beyond sanctions on Russia. That does not mean Putin is going to march through NATO nations but it does mean we may be entering another period of stand off as was the case in the Cold War with no sign of a Thatcher or Reagan on the western side on the horizon
Biden is just a middle way interventionist between the peaceniks and the war mongers. Get out of stupid unwinnable wars for out if the way armpits like Afghanistan. Aggressively support democracies facing unprovoked attacks from right wing fascists like Putin.
Biden may have been right to get out of Afghanistan and that the US had no need to be there once Bin Laden was killed (though return of AQ would destroy that argument).
However he is not really aggressively supporting Ukraine, hence he has ruled out even airstrikes on Putin and just stuck to airstrikes, wary of Russia's nuclear weapons. Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney for example would have taken a tougher line on Putin than Biden did. Even Trump may have avoided a Ukraine invasion as he was so unpredictable and Putin would not have been sure of his response (even if for Trump China is the main enemy, not Russia)
PB is two days older than my nephew who I'm meeting in the pub on Saturday for a drink. It's the day after his birthday, but also the day before mine, and we always try to meet up on the 5th. First time he'll be able to buy me a drink!
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Don't start that nonsense.
By that logic "midsummer's day" is the first day of summer.
It is in my view. Summer for me is mid June until mid September
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Don't start that nonsense.
By that logic "midsummer's day" is the first day of summer.
That's right, it is. Although Midsummer's Day is a bloody stupid name as it's not the middle of summer under either measure of the seasons!
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
Statistically, the coldest week of the year is the third week of February. That is "the bleak midwinter".
The Beast from the East (and the follow-up two weeks later) were both mid-late March.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
True, although the dates aren't really set by the cosmos either.
The Lesser Celandine and Early Dog-violets were in flower at the weekend. That's good enough for me.
- Cases are still falling, R is below 1 for age and region. Some signs that the fall is slowing further - MV Beds - seems to be plateauing, after the increase around the 28th Feb - In hospital - likewise - Admissions - spike on the 28th. Need to see more data to see what is going on - Deaths down
I hope this doesn't sound too trite but it isn't necessarily irrelevant either. I know he described his own style as closer to Benny Hill but I like Zelenskyy's wit.
In response to Putin's rambling 5000 word essay on Ukraine Zelenskyy said he was 'envious' that the leader of one of the world's great powers had so much time on his hands. On Putin's claim that the people of Russia and Ukraine were brothers, Zelenskyy said more like Cain and Abel.
I saw an American general say that he thought Zelenskyy had driven Putin nuts. That may be about the EU/Nato, placing Putin's oligarch buddy under house arrest or many other things. But bullies don't generally like being laughed at.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
Oh not this again.
All season definitions are arbitrary, and can be useful in different ways with varying degrees of usefulness, but if you're going to base them on the solstices and the equinoxes, then those are the mid-points of the seasons. It's the cross-quarter days in between that mark the start/end points of the season (so the astronomical spring started near the start of February).
There must have been an epic misunderstanding at some point for anyone to think that summer started on midsummer's day, but that's no excuse for propagating it.
Erm…. the STEM folk are exactly the ones doing the lion’s share of the work on intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; as well as assessments on the Russian kit and calculations around logistics. They also designed and built NLAW, Javelin and the other kit.
As a history graduate, this is absolutely not the time I would seek to one up those with actually worthwhile education.
"The difference between science and the fuzzy subjects is that science requires reasoning, while those other subjects merely require scholarship"
I don't know why, but there is quite often something striking in official pictures from the Commons. This one a bit more obvious reason for being striking Shame the place will probably fall to bits.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
Again, that is quite correct. Well said.
Not true here in Scotland. I wouldn't be 100% sure for another 5-6 weeks that the road south won't be blocked at some point.
The Russian ministry of defence has given a casualty figure for the first time. According to them, 498 Russian troops have been killed so far.
That'll be as accurate as their Covid numbers then....
Yes, but if they're admitting to that many, it suggests the estimates from the Ukrainian side are in the right ballpark.
I suspect that the Ukrainian numbers are really quite accurate (as far as is possible anyway in a war). They have been so adept at winning over the media, why lose that credibility by doubling their true numbers?
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
Statistically, the coldest week of the year is the third week of February. That is "the bleak midwinter".
The Beast from the East (and the follow-up two weeks later) were both mid-late March.
Indeed so.
And it's worth noting that the 'thermal seasons' run approximately 10th of the month to the 10th – i.e. summer is 10 June to 10 Sep, winter 10 Dec to 10 March and so on.
No wonder there is such an argument about the seasons – the thermal reality is slap bang between the astronomical definition and that used by the Met Office!
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
True, although the dates aren't really set by the cosmos either.
The Lesser Celandine and Early Dog-violets were in flower at the weekend. That's good enough for me.
Yes, don't get me wrong, I like a daff as much as the next man. Great to see some springing up in my front garden!
@julianborger Serbia is voting for the UNGA resolution deploring the Russian invasion of Ukraine and calling for an immediate withdrawal. An important vote from a country usually friendly with Moscow.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
Oh not this again.
All season definitions are arbitrary, and can be useful in different ways with varying degrees of usefulness, but if you're going to base them on the solstices and the equinoxes, then those are the mid-points of the seasons. It's the cross-quarter days in between that mark the start/end points of the season (so the astronomical spring started near the start of February).
There must have been an epic misunderstanding at some point for anyone to think that summer started on midsummer's day, but that's no excuse for propagating it.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Don't start that nonsense.
By that logic "midsummer's day" is the first day of summer.
It is in my view. Summer for me is mid June until mid September
Agreed – for me too and for most people I think.
The idea that 1 September is autumn is demonstrable nonsense. September is often the loveliest of all the summer months.
On the filming/photographing of Russian POWs by some Ukrainians, I haven't seen anything yet that would seem to break the rather vague rules.
The Third Geneva Convention, Part 2, Article 13 states that prisoners of war must be treated humanely and "Protected against public curiosity".
"GC III, Art. 13 does not per se prohibit photographing a POW. The prohibition extends to photographs that degrade or humiliate a POW. With respect to POWs, there is some value added in disseminating photographs since it gives family members assurance that their loved one is alive. "
@julianborger Serbia is voting for the UNGA resolution deploring the Russian invasion of Ukraine and calling for an immediate withdrawal. An important vote from a country usually friendly with Moscow.
Russia publishes its first casualty figures in Ukraine, admitting 498 soldiers killed and a further 1500 injured. That's a remarkable admission given they were claiming days ago to have suffered no casualties whatsoever.
Hope to see several of you at the PB party, although you might not immediately recognise me without my wig.
Sorry not to be able to join you as I believe we are the only remaining PB Tories (those who won bets with tim). Have fun and photos please (in the best possible taste)....
Still. Even if you assume that, the Russians have taken quite a battering, particularly their armored vehicles. (And one would assume, the people inside them.)
Not sure. I've watched more than my fair share of the videos out there. And people are tallying the Russian losses from online media.
I imagine that Russia has lost at least half of what the Ukrainians are saying simply because not everything is filmed and what has been captured is substantial.
On the filming/photographing of Russian POWs by some Ukrainians, I haven't seen anything yet that would seem to break the rather vague rules.
The Third Geneva Convention, Part 2, Article 13 states that prisoners of war must be treated humanely and "Protected against public curiosity".
"GC III, Art. 13 does not per se prohibit photographing a POW. The prohibition extends to photographs that degrade or humiliate a POW. With respect to POWs, there is some value added in disseminating photographs since it gives family members assurance that their loved one is alive. "
Hope to see several of you at the PB party, although you might not immediately recognise me without my wig.
Sorry not to be able to join you as I believe we are the only remaining PB Tories (those who won bets with tim). Have fun and photos please (in the best possible taste)....
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
Oh not this again.
All season definitions are arbitrary, and can be useful in different ways with varying degrees of usefulness, but if you're going to base them on the solstices and the equinoxes, then those are the mid-points of the seasons. It's the cross-quarter days in between that mark the start/end points of the season (so the astronomical spring started near the start of February).
There must have been an epic misunderstanding at some point for anyone to think that summer started on midsummer's day, but that's no excuse for propagating it.
Wrong.
Season =! totality of daylight.
Seasonal lag (insolation) means that months with much less daylight are substantially warmer than those with more.
September is notably warmer than May in the UK, despite having considerably less daylight hours!
Off topic, but I notice that today's reported deaths with/from Covid are 651 for the last seven days. I think this is the first time for several months that the weekly average has been under 100 per day. Some good news, at least.
Russia publishes its first casualty figures in Ukraine, admitting 498 soldiers killed and a further 1500 injured. That's a remarkable admission given they were claiming days ago to have suffered no casualties whatsoever.
Hope to see several of you at the PB party, although you might not immediately recognise me without my wig.
Sorry not to be able to join you as I believe we are the only remaining PB Tories (those who won bets with tim). Have fun and photos please (in the best possible taste)....
That's a pity, I was looking forward to guessing which end-of-line train station you'd end up in early tomorrow morning...
Magnificent theatre hall at the Ukrainian Institute in Przemyśl, now being used as a centre of refuge for those fleeing Ukraine. People arriving in a state of complete exhaustion and shock. Some barely move for hours or longer while they absorb what they’ve just experienced. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1499069588344037382/photo/1
The Russian ministry of defence has given a casualty figure for the first time. According to them, 498 Russian troops have been killed so far.
That'll be as accurate as their Covid numbers then....
Yes, but if they're admitting to that many, it suggests the estimates from the Ukrainian side are in the right ballpark.
I suspect that the Ukrainian numbers are really quite accurate (as far as is possible anyway in a war). They have been so adept at winning over the media, why lose that credibility by doubling their true numbers?
Estimates will not be easy I imagine - what harm to their cause if they err on the generous side of things? So long as they are in the ballpark up they won't lose much credibility. And the view is so positive the ballpark will be generous.
Okay, let’s believe (ha!) for a minute that the Russians have lost 500 soldiers.
How many more do we think might have been:
A. Injured? B. Captured?
Now, the Ukranians are claiming nearly 6,000 dead Russians.
Can we scale up the injured and captured numbers in the same proportions, and if so what percentage of the 100k troops the Russians say have gone over the border, are no longer in play?
The truth, as always in war, is going to be somewhere in the middle.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PB on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Don't start that nonsense.
By that logic "midsummer's day" is the first day of summer.
It is in my view. Summer for me is mid June until mid September
Agreed – for me too and for most people I think.
The idea that 1 September is autumn is demonstrable nonsense. September is often the loveliest of all the summer months.
Off topic, but I notice that today's reported deaths with/from Covid are 651 for the last seven days. I think this is the first time for several months that the weekly average has been under 100 per day. Some good news, at least.
What’s Covid?
One of my most well worn VHSs from my youth. Oh, no, wait, sorry that was “Coed Vid”.
Interesting that it's now Lavrov giving out all the demands. If "Ukrainians must choose their own leaders" is classic Putin-speak, I'm Edna O'Brien.
I wonder if Lavrov is on manoeuvres.
If the baton gets dropped, as it were, over the coming months then there are two options: the full Kremlin apparatus gets dismantled and a new broom comes in (essentially revolution) or the people in positions of power try to rebuild and retain their power base by getting someone in the administration in (nothing to see here, Mr Putin’s just decided to take early retirement).
The truth, as always in war, is going to be somewhere in the middle.
IDK, casualty estimates asides I think we can agree the truth of this war is not very close to the middle position of the two sides. Except on a technical basis, like saying the number 9 is in the middle between 1 and 10.
Every conflict, road traffic collision, train or plane crash, murder, rape, etc has horrific images. It really does serve no purpose to post them.
I utterly disagree. It is the images that have angered the world. Words do not cut it
We NEED to see what is happening, and we NEED to be distressed and upset - and righteously furious
Yes, of course, if this was just a random murder or a traffic accident, why post it? Macabre. But this is a deliberate unprovoked war on civilians and it is only the bloody brutal photos and videos that bring home the horror
There is no good reason for ever being distressed or upset.
Russia publishes its first casualty figures in Ukraine, admitting 498 soldiers killed and a further 1500 injured. That's a remarkable admission given they were claiming days ago to have suffered no casualties whatsoever.
When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.
But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.
A few year later, communism collapsed.
Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.
Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
The other one is Alan Partridge?
No its you actually.
There you were just now, desperately scraping around for assurances your hero Joe Biden would not leave Europe in the lurch in the event NATO was attacked.
Where did you get the idea the man who saved you from 'NATO slayer Donald Trump could even contemplate such a thing?
You got it from NATO's messaging. Which is gutless and cowardly.
We don't want to fight, under any circumstances. And so we are going to be asked to, when we are done watching Putin slay innocent Ukrainians.
Biden is the most isolationist US President since Carter, his actions in withdrawing from Afghanistan and now his ruling out airstrikes and military involvement in Ukraine show that.
However the US is weary after its post 9/11 wars and that is understandable and will not go beyond sanctions on Russia. That does not mean Putin is going to march through NATO nations but it does mean we may be entering another period of stand off as was the case in the Cold War with no sign of a Thatcher or Reagan on the western side on the horizon
Biden is just a middle way interventionist between the peaceniks and the war mongers. Get out of stupid unwinnable wars for out if the way armpits like Afghanistan. Aggressively support democracies facing unprovoked attacks from right wing fascists like Putin.
Biden may have been right to get out of Afghanistan and that the US had no need to be there once Bin Laden was killed (though return of AQ would destroy that argument).
However he is not really aggressively supporting Ukraine, hence he has ruled out even airstrikes on Putin and just stuck to airstrikes, wary of Russia's nuclear weapons. Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney for example would have taken a tougher line on Putin than Biden did. Even Trump may have avoided a Ukraine invasion as he was so unpredictable and Putin would not have been sure of his response (even if for Trump China is the main enemy, not Russia)
PB is two days older than my nephew who I'm meeting in the pub on Saturday for a drink. It's the day after his birthday, but also the day before mine, and we always try to meet up on the 5th. First time he'll be able to buy me a drink!
Happy birthday and have a fun night tonight
PB is a week younger than my eldest granddaughter. Just emerging from the chrysalis, ready to take wing. Happy birthday!
Wow. Russian @mod_russia admits 498 casualties, over 1500 wounded. You know what this means in Kremlinspeak.
That's a lot more than I thought they would admit. which might indicate that the Ukrainian numbers are broadly accurate.
Did they release any more information, e.g. how many of their men have been captured? or how many Ukrainians they clamed to have killed?
They claim to have killed 2,870 Ukrainian military. I don't think they've given a figure for how many civilians they have killed (not that they would be in a position to know even if they cared).
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
In Spain - AEMET - the national weather agency sticks to the solstices and equinoxes to mark the season changes - each time there's a change we get appropriate pictures to start the forecast - a snowy scene after dec 21st , etc.
On the filming/photographing of Russian POWs by some Ukrainians, I haven't seen anything yet that would seem to break the rather vague rules.
The Third Geneva Convention, Part 2, Article 13 states that prisoners of war must be treated humanely and "Protected against public curiosity".
"GC III, Art. 13 does not per se prohibit photographing a POW. The prohibition extends to photographs that degrade or humiliate a POW. With respect to POWs, there is some value added in disseminating photographs since it gives family members assurance that their loved one is alive. "
I don't think I've seen anyone degraded or humiliated, just captured.
Indeed all the photos I have seen so far seem to show the POWs being well treated and (relatively) relaxed.
But the document linked to has a footnote which specifically links to US Army Regulations which say:
"Photographing, filming, and video taping of individual EPW, CI and RP for other than internal Internment Facility administration or intelligence/counterintelligence purposes is strictly prohibited."
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
Every conflict, road traffic collision, train or plane crash, murder, rape, etc has horrific images. It really does serve no purpose to post them.
I utterly disagree. It is the images that have angered the world. Words do not cut it
We NEED to see what is happening, and we NEED to be distressed and upset - and righteously furious
Yes, of course, if this was just a random murder or a traffic accident, why post it? Macabre. But this is a deliberate unprovoked war on civilians and it is only the bloody brutal photos and videos that bring home the horror
There is no good reason for ever being distressed or upset.
Wow. Russian @mod_russia admits 498 casualties, over 1500 wounded. You know what this means in Kremlinspeak.
That's a lot more than I thought they would admit. which might indicate that the Ukrainian numbers are broadly accurate.
Did they release any more information, e.g. how many of their men have been captured? or how many Ukrainians they clamed to have killed?
They claim to have killed 2,870 Ukrainian military. I don't think they've given a figure for how many civilians they have killed (not that they would be in a position to know even if they cared).
Ukraine is saying 2,000 of their own civilian deaths, FWIW.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
In Spain - AEMET - the national weather agency sticks to the solstices and equinoxes to mark the season changes - each time there's a change we get appropriate pictures to start the forecast - a snowy scene after dec 21st , etc.
And quite right too. Seasonal lag is pretty extreme in much of Spain so the proper seasons are the ones to use, not this claptrap propagated by the Met Office.
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Yes but astronomical Spring is normally more accurate weather wise in my experience and that does not start until 20th March
But then mid-December is still autumn, which is silly.
Weather wise it largely is, you rarely get snow until after 21st December
Statistically, the coldest week of the year is the third week of February. That is "the bleak midwinter".
The Beast from the East (and the follow-up two weeks later) were both mid-late March.
Not quite - the original beast was end of Feb start of March (about 26th to the 3rd). Second blast was two weeks later.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
Every conflict, road traffic collision, train or plane crash, murder, rape, etc has horrific images. It really does serve no purpose to post them.
I utterly disagree. It is the images that have angered the world. Words do not cut it
We NEED to see what is happening, and we NEED to be distressed and upset - and righteously furious
Yes, of course, if this was just a random murder or a traffic accident, why post it? Macabre. But this is a deliberate unprovoked war on civilians and it is only the bloody brutal photos and videos that bring home the horror
There is no good reason for ever being distressed or upset.
Wow. Russian @mod_russia admits 498 casualties, over 1500 wounded. You know what this means in Kremlinspeak.
That's a lot more than I thought they would admit. which might indicate that the Ukrainian numbers are broadly accurate.
Did they release any more information, e.g. how many of their men have been captured? or how many Ukrainians they clamed to have killed?
They claim to have killed 2,870 Ukrainian military. I don't think they've given a figure for how many civilians they have killed (not that they would be in a position to know even if they cared).
Ukraine is saying 2,000 of their own civilian deaths, FWIW.
Yes, and no doubt that figure will be increasing rapidly given today's shelling of various cities.
On the filming/photographing of Russian POWs by some Ukrainians, I haven't seen anything yet that would seem to break the rather vague rules.
The Third Geneva Convention, Part 2, Article 13 states that prisoners of war must be treated humanely and "Protected against public curiosity".
"GC III, Art. 13 does not per se prohibit photographing a POW. The prohibition extends to photographs that degrade or humiliate a POW. With respect to POWs, there is some value added in disseminating photographs since it gives family members assurance that their loved one is alive. "
I don't think I've seen anyone degraded or humiliated, just captured.
Indeed all the photos I have seen so far seem to show the POWs being well treated and (relatively) relaxed.
But the document linked to has a footnote which specifically links to US Army Regulations which say:
"Photographing, filming, and video taping of individual EPW, CI and RP for other than internal Internment Facility administration or intelligence/counterintelligence purposes is strictly prohibited."
So this is not clear cut imho.
I wonder how much thought the US Army Regs gave to what they'd let their home guard do if Russians illegally invaded them, rather than their own army visiting other continents on arguably dubious legal bases.
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
Beyond the pedantic quirk of the Vatican/Rome those two also have the closest capital cities in the world – Kinshasa and Brazzaville are just a mile apart at their nearest point. Which rather adds to the ludicrous sense of confusion and mistaken identity.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Syria, Russia, Belarus, N.Korea, Eritrea voted against the UN resolution. Quite the alliance.
The Axis of Evil 2022 edition.
Is Eritrea still at war with Ethiopia? Perhaps we now know which side to pick.
No. The Horn of Africa alliance business got shaken up a year or so, ago. Ethiopia kicked the Tigrayans out of government - then Eritrea and Ethiopia buried the hatchet, got awarded the Nobel peace prize, then jointly went to war with the Tigrayans.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
Maybe we are seeing the military's demands for Putin to stay in office....
- Cases are still falling, R is below 1 for age and region. Some signs that the fall is slowing further - MV Beds - seems to be plateauing, after the increase around the 28th Feb - In hospital - likewise - Admissions - spike on the 28th. Need to see more data to see what is going on - Deaths down
The BA.2 bump feeding through.
It's why Northern Ireland has such high prevalence in the ONS infections survey and why Scotland has had admissions and hospital figures going up (but after NI):
Probably won't be very visible on the cases data; that's now less and less reliable. Watch the ONS survey and the hospital data.
Infections are bumping upwards in the oldest categories (most vulnerable) and this will feed through into hospitals.
Personally, I'm expecting more a "bump" than a "surge." NI look to be on their way down from the BA.2 bump. Scotland still rising but should plateau soon (I hope). We're now just starting that rise in England, but I'm expecting (hoping?) it'll be less severe because England's had longer for BA.1 to make its way around so immunity should be wider-spread (and vaccine coverage is better in England than NI).
Expect 2-3 weeks of a reversal in the drop in infections and admissions, though.
Comments
🚀 📡
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1499063398813863941
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
- Lazarus Long
https://dev.apnews.com/article/russia-kyiv-ukraine-japan-government-and-politics-2db2e7aeab196d941e7b66492feca14b
By that logic "midsummer's day" is the first day of summer.
Still. Even if you assume that, the Russians have taken quite a battering, particularly their armored vehicles. (And one would assume, the people inside them.)
However he is not really aggressively supporting Ukraine, hence he has ruled out even airstrikes on Putin and just stuck to airstrikes, wary of Russia's nuclear weapons. Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney for example would have taken a tougher line on Putin than Biden did. Even Trump may have avoided a Ukraine invasion as he was so unpredictable and Putin would not have been sure of his response (even if for Trump China is the main enemy, not Russia)
Happy birthday and have a fun night tonight
The Beast from the East (and the follow-up two weeks later) were both mid-late March.
The Lesser Celandine and Early Dog-violets were in flower at the weekend. That's good enough for me.
- Cases are still falling, R is below 1 for age and region. Some signs that the fall is slowing further
- MV Beds - seems to be plateauing, after the increase around the 28th Feb
- In hospital - likewise
- Admissions - spike on the 28th. Need to see more data to see what is going on
- Deaths down
Wow. Russian @mod_russia admits 498 casualties, over 1500 wounded. You know what this means in Kremlinspeak.
In response to Putin's rambling 5000 word essay on Ukraine Zelenskyy said he was 'envious' that the leader of one of the world's great powers had so much time on his hands. On Putin's claim that the people of Russia and Ukraine were brothers, Zelenskyy said more like Cain and Abel.
I saw an American general say that he thought Zelenskyy had driven Putin nuts. That may be about the EU/Nato, placing Putin's oligarch buddy under house arrest or many other things. But bullies don't generally like being laughed at.
All season definitions are arbitrary, and can be useful in different ways with varying degrees of usefulness, but if you're going to base them on the solstices and the equinoxes, then those are the mid-points of the seasons. It's the cross-quarter days in between that mark the start/end points of the season (so the astronomical spring started near the start of February).
There must have been an epic misunderstanding at some point for anyone to think that summer started on midsummer's day, but that's no excuse for propagating it.
Shame the place will probably fall to bits.
And it's worth noting that the 'thermal seasons' run approximately 10th of the month to the 10th – i.e. summer is 10 June to 10 Sep, winter 10 Dec to 10 March and so on.
No wonder there is such an argument about the seasons – the thermal reality is slap bang between the astronomical definition and that used by the Met Office!
Serbia is voting for the UNGA resolution deploring the Russian invasion of Ukraine and calling for an immediate withdrawal. An important vote from a country usually friendly with Moscow.
https://twitter.com/julianborger/status/1499063822736367623
The idea that 1 September is autumn is demonstrable nonsense. September is often the loveliest of all the summer months.
The Third Geneva Convention, Part 2, Article 13 states that prisoners of war must be treated humanely and "Protected against public curiosity".
"GC III, Art. 13 does not per se prohibit photographing a POW. The
prohibition extends to photographs that degrade or humiliate a POW.
With respect to POWs, there is some value added in disseminating
photographs since it gives family members assurance that their loved
one is alive. "
According to this = https://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/Military_Law/pdf/LOAC-Deskbook-2015_Ch6.pdf
I don't think I've seen anyone degraded or humiliated, just captured.
Russia publishes its first casualty figures in Ukraine, admitting 498 soldiers killed and a further 1500 injured. That's a remarkable admission given they were claiming days ago to have suffered no casualties whatsoever.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1499066719096168450
https://twitter.com/BBCJLandale/status/1499068385463832582
I imagine that Russia has lost at least half of what the Ukrainians are saying simply because not everything is filmed and what has been captured is substantial.
Season =! totality of daylight.
Seasonal lag (insolation) means that months with much less daylight are substantially warmer than those with more.
September is notably warmer than May in the UK, despite having considerably less daylight hours!
How many more do we think might have been:
A. Injured?
B. Captured?
Now, the Ukranians are claiming nearly 6,000 dead Russians.
Can we scale up the injured and captured numbers in the same proportions, and if so what percentage of the 100k troops the Russians say have gone over the border, are no longer in play?
The truth, as always in war, is going to be somewhere in the middle.
The UN General Assembly has approved a resolution demanding that Russia cease fighting in Ukraine and withdraw all troops.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499067749510914051?s=20&t=bTyOwzUGHzHHjlitoZ2DtQ
5 against:
Russia
Belarus
Eritrea
N Korea
Syria
35 Abstentions, notably China & India.
If the baton gets dropped, as it were, over the coming months then there are two options: the full Kremlin apparatus gets dismantled and a new broom comes in (essentially revolution) or the people in positions of power try to rebuild and retain their power base by getting someone in the administration in (nothing to see here, Mr Putin’s just decided to take early retirement).
Revolution doesn’t suit the Russian ruling class.
Did they release any more information, e.g. how many of their men have been captured? or how many Ukrainians they clamed to have killed?
China
India
South Africa
ready to take wing. Happy birthday!
"Photographing, filming, and video taping of individual EPW, CI and RP for other than internal Internment Facility administration or intelligence/counterintelligence purposes is strictly prohibited."
So this is not clear cut imho.
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
Plus ca change.
It's why Northern Ireland has such high prevalence in the ONS infections survey and why Scotland has had admissions and hospital figures going up (but after NI):
Probably won't be very visible on the cases data; that's now less and less reliable. Watch the ONS survey and the hospital data.
Infections are bumping upwards in the oldest categories (most vulnerable) and this will feed through into hospitals.
Personally, I'm expecting more a "bump" than a "surge." NI look to be on their way down from the BA.2 bump. Scotland still rising but should plateau soon (I hope). We're now just starting that rise in England, but I'm expecting (hoping?) it'll be less severe because England's had longer for BA.1 to make its way around so immunity should be wider-spread (and vaccine coverage is better in England than NI).
Expect 2-3 weeks of a reversal in the drop in infections and admissions, though.