Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Even getting to the summer gets him past Brown and May.
And also past Jim Callaghan. Then a fair gap to catch Ted Heath. So far he's past two postwar PMs, Eden and Douglas-Home.
It may just be a coincidence, but there's a big gap between Derby (3y 280d) and Peel (5y 57d) - which a May 2024 departure would leave him right in the middle of.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Depends on how deferential voting plays out. Boris and co will need to actually deliver to keep the Red Wall seats - as I've pointed out before look at Redcar to see what happens if you promise and don't deliver the seat returns to it's default Labour state.
Even if Labour regained every single redwall seat lost in 2017 and 2019 they would still be well short of a majority unless they also won most of the seats Brown lost to Cameron in 2010 or most of the seats Ed Miliband lost to the SNP in 2015
A complication of the Met getting involved and the delay this will cause is that it would be very awkward if Tory MPs booted out Boris only to find that his successor was also caught up in the scandal when the Met eventually gets round to finishing its investigation. A strong reason to hold off putting those letters in.
It shouldn't take them that long in that (a) the evidence is irrefutable and not being denied and (b) the PM has already confessed - he "didn't know" he was breaking the law and then it was "only a cake"
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
Would you vote Labour under those circumstances Richard?
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
The lesson is that constantly electing clowns and smirking twats reduces your clout on the international stage. Who knew?
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
The lesson is that constantly electing clowns and smirking twats reduces your clout on the international stage. Who knew?
Missed this earlier. Hurley Burley presents clips of liar lying to parliament to Sebastian Fox, and "asks" a question by doing her best Alan Partridge shrug at him.
Its always been one of Michael Green's big problems. His face breaks out into that grin where we can see that he knows he is lying and is embarrassed by it.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
Because Italy is A.N. Other militarily.
France is a nuclear armed power that spends three times as much on its military as Italy does.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
Third beer downed, I presume.
Sadly, no. Stony sober. Had to go into central Colombo to get my train ticket for Galle
Soon gym, then gin, however!
Are you going to Arugam Bay? It's wonderful.
if I get massively bored, Colombo’s
You must be pretty bored and unhappy to spend much of your time in beautiful Sri Lanka sitting on politicalbetting.com
Get a life
I don't think it appropriate for any poster to pass comment or judgement on any other poster for being on PB at any time or place, frankly.
Glass & houses spring to mind
Indeed. I wrote my first (and just about last - where do people get the time) header for PB just after a very decent lunch in Barbados at the Lone Star (king prawn caesar and a bottle of Minuty which latter may have aided the process).
'Liz Truss, the senior British politician who talks Sinophobic talk, is less of an Iron Lady and more of a Chocolate Soldier, someone who might look smart and shiny in a uniform, but is utterly clueless when it comes to fighting.'
I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
It would be easier to eliminate influenza, and as far as I know nobody is trying to do that.
We might have just about stuffed the genie back in the bottle with the Wuhan strain, and possibly with Alpha, but Delta really became too much for Western levels of NPIs, and with Omicron you are now dealing with what is probably the most transmissible virus we have ever seen. It is a fool's errand to think that Omicron can be eliminated, and even for those who think that is a good idea I would suggest that there must be several dozen easier targets to deal with first.
And I'm not against eliminating the coronavirus, I wish we could, but eliminating an extremely transmissible airborne virus where many people will be asymptomatic and infectious is an almost impossible challenge. Maybe one day we will have incredibly good testing enabling us to corner and kill the virus but I think we are a hell of a long way from that right now.
I would have thought: before today he was likely to survive until after local elections just from time to find replacement and don't want new leader appointed just before those elections so stretch the timetable to just after. It is not clear that it is Boris who has or may have broken law but if it was, there would surely be more chance of acting leader being appointed so more chance of going before April.
However the market seems to see chance of Boris going before April as lower so news is seen as more of a delay before Boris goes. So the markets are saying it is unlikely to be Boris that has broken law? Hmm., guess it is more likely to be someone else.
The two parties that caused the most anger were the ones before Philips funeral
Boris was away in Chequers, so on those he will not be charged
Mr. Crandles, Jan-Mar 2022 departure was 2.6 early this morning, 4.2 shortly after Met announcement, now 5.2. July 2022 or later down to 1.87.
As I was saying, a noticeable lowering of the implied chance of departure from 38.5% chance to under 20%. as if it is a delay.
2.6 = 38.5% chance was ridiculous, I would have thought 5% chance should have increased to ~ 7 to 9%, because of the time to find new leader was already going to put it past March. The real change is an increased chance of acting leader being needed. But markets aren't seeing it as I do.
I would have thought: before today he was likely to survive until after local elections just from time to find replacement and don't want new leader appointed just before those elections so stretch the timetable to just after. It is not clear that it is Boris who has or may have broken law but if it was, there would surely be more chance of acting leader being appointed so more chance of going before April.
However the market seems to see chance of Boris going before April as lower so news is seen as more of a delay before Boris goes. So the markets are saying it is unlikely to be Boris that has broken law? Hmm., guess it is more likely to be someone else.
The two parties that caused the most anger were the ones before Philips funeral
Boris was away in Chequers, so on those he will not be charged
But the ones that broke the law and the ones that caused public anger may not intersect on the Venn diagram of parties.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
Would you vote Labour under those circumstances Richard?
(Assuming Starmer still leader)
Not sure. I have a lifelong antipathy to Labour and socialism in general - or more specifically to statism. So my default would always be to spoil my ballot. But Starmer certainly doesn't sicken me in the way Johnson does so I might at least consider it.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
Would you vote Labour under those circumstances Richard?
(Assuming Starmer still leader)
Not sure. I have a lifelong antipathy to Labour and socialism in general - or more specifically to statism. So my default would always be to spoil my ballot. But Starmer certainly doesn't sicken me in the way Johnson does so I might at least consider it.
As it stands I think I'd vote for Ed Davey's Lib Dems. Though my seat is a Labour versus Tory marginal.
I would have thought: before today he was likely to survive until after local elections just from time to find replacement and don't want new leader appointed just before those elections so stretch the timetable to just after. It is not clear that it is Boris who has or may have broken law but if it was, there would surely be more chance of acting leader being appointed so more chance of going before April.
However the market seems to see chance of Boris going before April as lower so news is seen as more of a delay before Boris goes. So the markets are saying it is unlikely to be Boris that has broken law? Hmm., guess it is more likely to be someone else.
The two parties that caused the most anger were the ones before Philips funeral
Boris was away in Chequers, so on those he will not be charged
But the ones that broke the law and the ones that caused public anger may not intersect on the Venn diagram of parties.
Mr. Crandles, Jan-Mar 2022 departure was 2.6 early this morning, 4.2 shortly after Met announcement, now 5.2. July 2022 or later down to 1.87.
As I was saying, a noticeable lowering of the implied chance of departure from 38.5% chance to under 20%. as if it is a delay.
2.6 = 38.5% chance was ridiculous, I would have thought 5% chance should have increased to ~ 7 to 9%, because of the time to find new leader was already going to put it past March. The real change is an increased chance of acting leader being needed. But markets aren't seeing it as I do.
I think you're wrong, I sense he's probably safe now for a while, but that's precisely when you have a great betting opportunity - when you see things differently to most others.
Surely doesn't change anything unless it contains details of events not already known about? Everyone knows what happened; the response from No.10 will continue to be "we don't comment on leaks/we can't prejudice the police inquiry".
I suppose if it includes evidence of Boris being told in advance that things he subsequently did would be illegal that could change things: "wait for the met to confirm that the thing that the PM did that he was warned was illegal was in fact illegal" becomes a harder line to hold.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
Would you vote Labour under those circumstances Richard?
(Assuming Starmer still leader)
Not sure. I have a lifelong antipathy to Labour and socialism in general - or more specifically to statism. So my default would always be to spoil my ballot. But Starmer certainly doesn't sicken me in the way Johnson does so I might at least consider it.
As it stands I think I'd vote for Ed Davey's Lib Dems. Though my seat is a Labour versus Tory marginal.
Well that will make the party a bit less Liberal and a bit more Tory then
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Mr. Crandles, Jan-Mar 2022 departure was 2.6 early this morning, 4.2 shortly after Met announcement, now 5.2. July 2022 or later down to 1.87.
As I was saying, a noticeable lowering of the implied chance of departure from 38.5% chance to under 20%. as if it is a delay.
2.6 = 38.5% chance was ridiculous, I would have thought 5% chance should have increased to ~ 7 to 9%, because of the time to find new leader was already going to put it past March. The real change is an increased chance of acting leader being needed. But markets aren't seeing it as I do.
I think you're wrong, I sense he's probably safe now for a while, but that's precisely when you have a great betting opportunity - when you see things differently to most others.
I am saying the 5.2 price is still too low.
There is less difference now than there was so I have reduced my exposure to cash in some of the profits.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
So you're waving the white flag? Excellent, you can take a holiday until after the election.
Starmer now has the opportunity to widen the attack on Johnson for breaking the law and lying about it into an attack on the Tory party for not forcing Johnson to resign for breaking the law and lying about it.
If he can make that stick then it makes it much harder for any new leader after Johnson to repair the damage. Starmer has to convince people that they don't just want a new PM, they want a new party of government.
The longer this goes on for the more time Starmer has to make that argument.
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
Has it occurred to you that there should be a higher ideal to politics than the grubby pursuit of power for its own sake? If there’s to be a change of government anyway then fine, you may as well start the process of cleaning the stables, restoring the integrity of the office and using the remaining period of majority government to enact some policies that might do some good for the Uk and its people.
Or does that run counter to the greasy pole climbing ambitions of you and your fellow Tory Party careerists?
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Yep. It won't last more than a few days. Can't say "we can't publish because the police" when the police are requesting that they publish.
Daft bastards they are if they thought plod taking over would buy them some time. Its the opposite. We will get her damning report followed swiftly by the PM having to attend a local cop shop for his interview under caution.
"Nothing to see here" is not a viable rebuff to the PM being interviewed under threat of arrest for multiple breaches of the laws he himself passed.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
It would unite the Conservatives around the accused, which is to Labours' advantage
Yes that is exactly my point. Starmer gets to shine with integrity and channel public outrage. And at the same time increase the chances of facing a no hoper lame duck at the next election.
What I as a citizen of this country would want is for a prominent Tory to be the one laying down the motion, so that it might actually get passed.
Hmm. It seems Gray and and someone in her team are briefing quite separately from the government. Likewise the Met are apparently little bothered about contradicting the government line. Neither of these are good for No.10.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
The sad truth is that most voters aren't the kind of amoral sycophants that infest the Tory party like your good self. They understand right and wrong and the PM is wrong.
You are clinging to polls now which are lagging indicators in a fast-moving political scandal which gets worse on a daily basis. You can try and cling to this line that they won't vote for Sunak or Truss and thats fine, but whats increasingly clear is that they won't vote for Johnson.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
Which in turn makes sense - the NYT has a strange view of the UK. Complete with street interviews with local people in the UK who speak using Eastern US English idiom.
Hmm. It seems Gray and and someone in her team are briefing quite separately from the government.
Well well. Perhaps she read my post saying she shat the bed and changer her mind! Or perhaps this was always the case and the press got over excited about what No 10 briefed to them without checking with anyone else.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Yep. It won't last more than a few days. Can't say "we can't publish because the police" when the police are requesting that they publish.
Daft bastards they are if they thought plod taking over would buy them some time. Its the opposite. We will get her damning report followed swiftly by the PM having to attend a local cop shop for his interview under caution.
"Nothing to see here" is not a viable rebuff to the PM being interviewed under threat of arrest for multiple breaches of the laws he himself passed.
It is a delicious prospect, but sadly I can't see it happening. Our establishment is rather less corrupt than in many countries but I think our plods will be looking at any excuse to not go down that path.
They know it will look bad on them, and the whole system generally, but I don't think you will be seeing his fat little handcuffs, unless Cummings has some photos from a very different establishment to a police station.
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
Wouldn't you like to throw your considerable weight behind a shiny new leader? It must drive you mad having to justify your support for someone who very few people like even less trust and from now on is nailed on certainty to be a laughing stock.
I understand that Cabinet Office is currently in discussion with Met Police about publication of Sue Gray report - when/ how much of it etc. If Scotland Yard gives green light, will be very difficult to hold back from publishing in full. https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1485991792726233091
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
No. Their line is laughable. "We can't publish because of the police investigation" is undermined somewhat by the police not only giving the go-ahead but openly calling for its publication.
It really helps the opposition cause to have the Jethro wing of the Tory Party parrot a line which is patently laughable and will have fallen apart as a defence before the debate is even finished.
If she found evidence of wrong doing - Sue Gray was pretty much bound to talk to the police about it. Otherwise that would be a cover-up, all by itself.
EDIT: or evidence off things that were potentially wrong doing
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
No. Their line is laughable. "We can't publish because of the police investigation" is undermined somewhat by the police not only giving the go-ahead but openly calling for its publication.
It really helps the opposition cause to have the Jethro wing of the Tory Party parrot a line which is patently laughable and will have fallen apart as a defence before the debate is even finished.
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
The sad truth is that most voters aren't the kind of amoral sycophants that infest the Tory party like your good self. They understand right and wrong and the PM is wrong.
You are clinging to polls now which are lagging indicators in a fast-moving political scandal which gets worse on a daily basis. You can try and cling to this line that they won't vote for Sunak or Truss and thats fine, but whats increasingly clear is that they won't vote for Johnson.
It does not matter to Boris if most Labour and LD and SNP voters hate him as long as he holds the party and more Tory supporters and Tory MPs back him than oppose him.
Same as it did not matter to Corbyn if most Tory and LD voters hated him as long as he held the party and more Labour members and Labour voters backed him than opposed him. Hence Corbyn survived the attempted overthrow of him in 2016 to lead the party in 2017 and until final defeat in 2019
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Yep. It won't last more than a few days. Can't say "we can't publish because the police" when the police are requesting that they publish.
Daft bastards they are if they thought plod taking over would buy them some time. Its the opposite. We will get her damning report followed swiftly by the PM having to attend a local cop shop for his interview under caution.
"Nothing to see here" is not a viable rebuff to the PM being interviewed under threat of arrest for multiple breaches of the laws he himself passed.
It is a delicious prospect, but sadly I can't see it happening. Our establishment is rather less corrupt than in many countries but I think our plods will be looking at any excuse to not go down that path.
They know it will look bad on them, and the whole system generally, but I don't think you will be seeing his fat little handcuffs, unless Cummings has some photos from a very different establishment to a police station.
I didn't say they would arrest him. But they propose to interview everyone involved under caution. If Peppa failed to attend they would arrest him - thats the "under threat of arrest" bit. And its unique to him - Blair was never a suspect, merely a witness.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
I am not going to claim to have done a sweeping survey of European media, but I do listen to and read German media every day, and talk to German people every day. I was stupidly under the impression that "plague island" is not a thing (at least in Germany), and that nobody is obsessed with trying to prove that everything the UK does is wrong, and that mask mandates in the supermarkets of NRW weren't being kept in place just because Britain has got rid of them.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
As ever you miss the wider point, the narrative across Europe was that the UK got it all wrong on COVID and now those same politicians (note it was the politicians, not the people) who reveled in the UK's apparent failure on COVID are backed into a cornee unable to follow the same route as we've taken out of the pandemic having branded the UK plan as mad not too long ago.
So... after a few hours of it seeming like the Cabinet Office would not publish the Sue Gray report until the Police have concluded their investigation, now the Met seems to have indicated they have no objection, the report may be published sooner rather than later in any case https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1485993778041217025
That, excluding the dont knows, not far short of half of your previous supporters now want you to resign is hardly a good look for any politician.
Boris doesn't have even half of Tory or Leave supporters on his side. It's mental to keep him.
He has more Tory and Leave supporters with him than against him.
That also means he likely wins a VONC if reflected amongst Tory MPs
This makes no sense - we all understand that if more Tory MPs support him then oppose him in a VONC, then he wins, but why would the split among a group of voters, some of whom are now ex-Tories, be reflected among MPs? It's as informative as saying "52% of gatherings in No. 10 were illegal, and he wins a VONC if that percentage is reflected amongst Tory MPs".
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Yep. It won't last more than a few days. Can't say "we can't publish because the police" when the police are requesting that they publish.
Daft bastards they are if they thought plod taking over would buy them some time. Its the opposite. We will get her damning report followed swiftly by the PM having to attend a local cop shop for his interview under caution.
"Nothing to see here" is not a viable rebuff to the PM being interviewed under threat of arrest for multiple breaches of the laws he himself passed.
It is a delicious prospect, but sadly I can't see it happening. Our establishment is rather less corrupt than in many countries but I think our plods will be looking at any excuse to not go down that path.
They know it will look bad on them, and the whole system generally, but I don't think you will be seeing his fat little handcuffs, unless Cummings has some photos from a very different establishment to a police station.
Why would it need an interview (under caution or otherwise)? Breaches would surely only be met with an FPN, so an interview would presumably only be needed if he contested the FPN.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
As ever you miss the wider point, the narrative across Europe was that the UK got it all wrong on COVID and now those same politicians (note it was the politicians, not the people) who reveled in the UK's apparent failure on COVID are backed into a cornee unable to follow the same route as we've taken out of the pandemic having branded the UK plan as mad not too long ago.
Should be tons of example of German politicians doing all this revelling then.
You are simply wrong on this, it just shows your Brexit obsession.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
One thing I think is key is that Johnson being a shyster who doesn't follow the rules (even his rules) is now priced in. It was to an extent before, but the blatant hypocrisy hurt him with the first party revelations. The cake incident doesn't really add anything to that unles you believe his baloney about the earlier parties and not condoning them. The cake thing is no worse than the earlier transgressions, possibly even less bad (could well have come as a suprise to him and churlish to send everyone away instantly rather than have the claimed ten minutes). It's less serious than what was already revealed.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
Indeed, Boris' core vote is the skilled working class, pensioners and Leave voting non graduates.
They are underrepresented on PB which is mainly full of middle class, under 65 graduates and most of those who are pensioners voted Remain, including OGH
Yep. It won't last more than a few days. Can't say "we can't publish because the police" when the police are requesting that they publish.
Daft bastards they are if they thought plod taking over would buy them some time. Its the opposite. We will get her damning report followed swiftly by the PM having to attend a local cop shop for his interview under caution.
"Nothing to see here" is not a viable rebuff to the PM being interviewed under threat of arrest for multiple breaches of the laws he himself passed.
It is unlikely to be Boris that may have committed the offence. If not Boris, and the person is senior enough, it gives torys opportunity to say we held inquiry which routed out problem, sacked person concerned, reported them to police and this settles matters and we are getting on with the job of governing.
Still doesn't look good but there will be less agreement about what else should have been done.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
I know plenty of lifelong Tories (50+ years worth of elections) who will either spoil their ballot or actively vote against the Tory candidate if he’s still leader at the next election. Those stories prophesizing the crumbling blue wall might well have some substance if they are not careful.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
One thing I think is key is that Johnson being a shyster who doesn't follow the rules (even his rules) is now priced in. It was to an extent before, but the blatant hypocrisy hurt him with the first party revelations. The cake incident doesn't really add anything to that unles you believe his baloney about the earlier parties and not condoning them. The cake thing is no worse than the earlier transgressions, possibly even less bad (could well have come as a suprise to him and churlish to send everyone away instantly rather than have the claimed ten minutes). It's less serious than what was already revealed.
Decorator much more of an issue, though. If work, was illegal. If not work, was illegal.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
Indeed, Boris' core vote is the skilled working class, pensioners and Leave voting non graduates.
They are underrepresented on PB which is mainly full of middle class, under 65 graduates and most of those who are pensioners voted Remain, including OGH
How many of those voters will have had a friend or family die in 2020 to 2021 that can be used as a starting point in how bad and uncaring Boris and the Tory party are?
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
Indeed, Boris' core vote is the skilled working class, pensioners and Leave voting non graduates.
They are underrepresented on PB which is mainly full of middle class, under 65 graduates and most of those who are pensioners voted Remain, including OGH
Bloody hell this is as desperate a post as I've ever seen from you
Lose 38% of your own voters and you lose the election.
There is no evidence yet Sunak would win the election either and every other alternative leader to Boris polls even worse v Starmer Labour
If you are going to lose the election (and if Boris stays, you are) you have two otions:
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose (b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
Wrong, changing a leader who polls worse than Boris means we lose even more seats.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
The sad truth is that most voters aren't the kind of amoral sycophants that infest the Tory party like your good self. They understand right and wrong and the PM is wrong.
You are clinging to polls now which are lagging indicators in a fast-moving political scandal which gets worse on a daily basis. You can try and cling to this line that they won't vote for Sunak or Truss and thats fine, but whats increasingly clear is that they won't vote for Johnson.
It does not matter to Boris if most Labour and LD and SNP voters hate him as long as he holds the party and more Tory supporters and Tory MPs back him than oppose him.
Same as it did not matter to Corbyn if most Tory and LD voters hated him as long as he held the party and more Labour members and Labour voters backed him than opposed him. Hence Corbyn survived the attempted overthrow of him in 2016 to lead the party in 2017 and until final defeat in 2019
I guess there is one aspect of your analysis that is spot on: Johnson = Corbyn
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
Agree entirely - Boris is an idiot and buffoon but he is "our buffoon" - there was a lot of anger in voters from 2016 to 2019 as the establishment did not appear to want to honour the referendum result - hence the reason Boris was elected
Comments
It may just be a coincidence, but there's a big gap between Derby (3y 280d) and Peel (5y 57d) - which a May 2024 departure would leave him right in the middle of.
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
(Assuming Starmer still leader)
Its always been one of Michael Green's big problems. His face breaks out into that grin where we can see that he knows he is lying and is embarrassed by it.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1485885950597156864
France is a nuclear armed power that spends three times as much on its military as Italy does.
Though perhaps that's your point.
Global Times
@globaltimesnews
China state-affiliated media
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1485908806500507648?s=20
Though 88% of Labour voters and 82% of LDs and 79% of Remain voters want him to go
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1485985006472376322?s=20
We might have just about stuffed the genie back in the bottle with the Wuhan strain, and possibly with Alpha, but Delta really became too much for Western levels of NPIs, and with Omicron you are now dealing with what is probably the most transmissible virus we have ever seen. It is a fool's errand to think that Omicron can be eliminated, and even for those who think that is a good idea I would suggest that there must be several dozen easier targets to deal with first.
And I'm not against eliminating the coronavirus, I wish we could, but eliminating an extremely transmissible airborne virus where many people will be asymptomatic and infectious is an almost impossible challenge. Maybe one day we will have incredibly good testing enabling us to corner and kill the virus but I think we are a hell of a long way from that right now.
Boris was away in Chequers, so on those he will not be charged
Credit where credits due, this is an area the frog eaters have done quite well in.
as if it is a delay.
2.6 = 38.5% chance was ridiculous, I would have thought 5% chance should have increased to ~ 7 to 9%, because of the time to find new leader was already going to put it past March. The real change is an increased chance of acting leader being needed. But markets aren't seeing it as I do.
Bravado or denial or in his mind no offence committed
Johnson is just hanging on to beat Brown and May's tenure now. He won't fight 2024 (or at least, the Conservatives shouldn't let him).
Redefining nuclear power as the problem, Is Something. Which Can Be Done Now. Cheaply.
Problem solved...
I suppose if it includes evidence of Boris being told in advance that things he subsequently did would be illegal that could change things: "wait for the met to confirm that the thing that the PM did that he was warned was illegal was in fact illegal" becomes a harder line to hold.
All the other alternative leaders bar Sunak poll worse v Starmer than Boris and even Sunak still trails Starmer
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/worlds-media-ask-how-it-went-so-wrong-for-plague-island-britain-covid
(a) keep the leader in place and definitely lose
(b) change the leader and possibly win
I would submit that hypothetical opinion polls - which have a long history of being completely useless - are not a suitable tool to use to decide which option to choose.
There is less difference now than there was so I have reduced my exposure to cash in some of the profits.
The hypothetical polls in 1990 showing a Major led Tories would lead Kinnock Labour unlike Thatcher's Tories were right in 1992.
The hypothetical polls in 2019 showing a Boris led Tories would lead Corbyn Labour unlike May's Tories were also right.
No current polls however have a Sunak led Tories leading Starmer Labour and most have a Truss or Gove or Patel led Tories trailing Labour by worse than Boris is
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
With no objection from the Met Police, Gray must now weigh up what to publish/when. This could mean everything is out in days.
This is an evolution of earlier situation
LIVE on Sky now
2/
A final decision has yet to be taken
Gray will consult with lawyers and some officials. The Prime Minister and political advisers in No10 are NOT part of this decision, I'm told
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1485990630610329615
If he can make that stick then it makes it much harder for any new leader after Johnson to repair the damage. Starmer has to convince people that they don't just want a new PM, they want a new party of government.
The longer this goes on for the more time Starmer has to make that argument.
Or does that run counter to the greasy pole climbing ambitions of you and your fellow Tory Party careerists?
Daft bastards they are if they thought plod taking over would buy them some time. Its the opposite. We will get her damning report followed swiftly by the PM having to attend a local cop shop for his interview under caution.
"Nothing to see here" is not a viable rebuff to the PM being interviewed under threat of arrest for multiple breaches of the laws he himself passed.
What I as a citizen of this country would want is for a prominent Tory to be the one laying down the motion, so that it might actually get passed.
That also means he likely wins a VONC if reflected amongst Tory MPs
You are clinging to polls now which are lagging indicators in a fast-moving political scandal which gets worse on a daily basis. You can try and cling to this line that they won't vote for Sunak or Truss and thats fine, but whats increasingly clear is that they won't vote for Johnson.
They know it will look bad on them, and the whole system generally, but I don't think you will be seeing his fat little handcuffs, unless Cummings has some photos from a very different establishment to a police station.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1485991792726233091
It really helps the opposition cause to have the Jethro wing of the Tory Party parrot a line which is patently laughable and will have fallen apart as a defence before the debate is even finished.
EDIT: or evidence off things that were potentially wrong doing
Same as it did not matter to Corbyn if most Tory and LD voters hated him as long as he held the party and more Labour members and Labour voters backed him than opposed him. Hence Corbyn survived the attempted overthrow of him in 2016 to lead the party in 2017 and until final defeat in 2019
I have said that I don't get any pleasure from saying "I told you so" to all the idiots who thought he was some sort of genius, but.....I told you so.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1485993778041217025
You are simply wrong on this, it just shows your Brexit obsession.
They are underrepresented on PB which is mainly full of middle class, under 65 graduates and most of those who are pensioners voted Remain, including OGH
Still doesn't look good but there will be less agreement about what else should have been done.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/jan/13/broadcasting.Iraqandthemedia
https://news.sky.com/story/sue-gray-report-partygate-inquiry-could-be-released-in-full-in-coming-days-despite-police-investigation-12525162
Quite a lot I imagine.