Guardian reporting the Gray report might be split in half, with the part covering events that were not deemed illegal published before the police investigation and the part dealing with events deemed illegal only published later. Presumably the government spin will be "Gray finds govt did nothing wrong" when the first part is published. I mean, they can't possibly think we're that stupid...
I want the whole Sue Gray report publishing in full, splitting it would be absurd
If Cressida Dick pushes for this, because of some testimony or other of her officers that she has apparently seen, she might change everything back again.
Good point. It is difficult to believe any government is happening. Ukraine and the huge current delays at borders should be the headlines in the news.
I worked for a certain large oil company, with a famous and prominent landmark London office. A tower, from the days when towers were unusual.
In the aftermath of 7/11 they commissioned a report from an external consultancy. An unusually stupid external consultancy.
The report was on the world wide effect on said oil company if the HQ building was destroyed.
The fools in the external company diligently reported that it would have no noticeable effect on the operations of the oil company. Which implied that profits would go up - since without the cost of the HQ and staff.....
The report was, of course, denounced as useless. And the external company marked as "do not use".
By the directors sitting on the top floor of said building.
Is it just possible that tory voters are much more angry at Boris for rising gas bills and soaring inflation than they are about parties?
Not my experience on the doorstep, frankly. People have cost of living worries certainly, and want to know how the Government will respond, but that's not the source of the (very real) anger.
MPs claiming it isn't coming up and is all Westminster bubble are lying. It really is as simple as it seems.
The anger over No10 parties is going to combine in a very toxic way for the government when energy price rises start really hitting people’s pockets.
Gas prices have fallen back from the absolute peak, but are still 4x higher than a year ago. If you heat your house with mains gas, then you can assume that the cost of that is going up significantly. It looks like the government will try and smooth out the impact with some kind of loan scheme, but expect consumer prices to approximately double. If gas prices don’t fall back then consumer prices will double again in a year or so unless the government decides to permanently subsidise consumer gas supplies.
This summer might be a great time to insulate the snot out of your home.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
If I want to stir people up, I am very capable of doing that, as you know
My saying “this is cause for some modest concern” is really not wild scare-mongering. I am just stating the facts, meagre as they are
We have a new variant (or sub variant - opinions differ). It seems to have some troubling properties - super transmissible, even more infectious than Original Omicron, BUT there are also lots of hopeful signs that it is no worse than Omicron, and will just fade into the general run of Covid, as it slowly becomes endemic. However this variant may make that progression bumpier than we hoped
That Parisian article gets it about right. Absolutely no need to panic yet, at all. But concerned vigilance? Yes
Your attitude seems to be: we just ignore any Covid developments now, and then it will completely go away. Recent history tells us this is not sensible
It is possible to be in a state of concerned vigilance and to believe that all the current set of measures have to be dropped immediately. I've finally got COVID and the self isolation rules I am having to follow have caused financial losses for me, and problems for the organisation I am working for and various other issues that would in normal times be unthinkable. What I have got is mild flu. It is not a justification for failing to meet my work and personal commitments. I don't see the point of any of it. I only know I've got it because I took an LFT test for assymptomatic as I didn't have any of the 'main covid' symptoms. I've basically been penalised for following the rules.
Edit - and to add - whenever I call someone to tell them I can't do something because I've got covid I get the sense they don't believe me. Covid has obviously become the excuse of choice for liars and skivers.
Absolutely. I agree with all of that. I was against Plan B, let alone anything harsher. Omicron is so infectious any conceivable restrictions are pointless pantomime or idiotic self harm - unless you go the Full China. We can’t and won’t do that so let life continue, and let those who are scared stay home
That in no way contradicts my state of “concerned vigilance” when another variant of the bug hoves into view. Which it has.
It may well be absolutely nothing to worry about, as @turbotubbs says. Or it may be more than that. With the limited evidence we have so far, you can argue it either way, but nothing is conclusive. So, we watch. Warily
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Good point. It is difficult to believe any government is happening. Ukraine and the huge current delays at borders should be the headlines in the news.
I worked for a certain large oil company, with a famous and prominent landmark London office. A tower, from the days when towers were unusual.
In the aftermath of 7/11 they commissioned a report from an external consultancy. An unusually stupid external consultancy.
The report was on the world wide effect on said oil company if the HQ building was destroyed.
The fools in the external company diligently reported that it would have no noticeable effect on the operations of the oil company. Which implied that profits would go up - since without the cost of the HQ and staff.....
The report was, of course, denounced as useless. And the external company marked as "do not use".
By the directors sitting on the top floor of said building.
Ooh. Did they resolve the issue by moving?
No, they resolved the problem of the report saying that they were utterly valueless to the business they ran, by binning the report.
The idea that terrorists would bother with a private company was laughable anyway - they were hoping for a report that said they were worth billions to the organisation.
All the people who worked in the tower (like me) thought the report was hilarious. Apart from the po-faced morons to the top floor.
Is it just possible that tory voters are much more angry at Boris for rising gas bills and soaring inflation than they are about parties?
Not my experience on the doorstep, frankly. People have cost of living worries certainly, and want to know how the Government will respond, but that's not the source of the (very real) anger.
MPs claiming it isn't coming up and is all Westminster bubble are lying. It really is as simple as it seems.
The anger over No10 parties is going to combine in a very toxic way for the government when energy price rises start really hitting people’s pockets.
Gas prices have fallen back from the absolute peak, but are still 4x higher than a year ago. If you heat your house with mains gas, then you can assume that the cost of that is going up significantly. It looks like the government will try and smooth out the impact with some kind of loan scheme, but expect consumer prices to approximately double. If gas prices don’t fall back then consumer prices will double again in a year or so unless the government decides to permanently subsidise consumer gas supplies.
This summer might be a great time to insulate the snot out of your home.
I received an email last night from my lecky supplier warning that my bill would go up by 75% in April, please phone us if you anticipate financial distress.
Is it just possible that tory voters are much more angry at Boris for rising gas bills and soaring inflation than they are about parties?
Not my experience on the doorstep, frankly. People have cost of living worries certainly, and want to know how the Government will respond, but that's not the source of the (very real) anger.
MPs claiming it isn't coming up and is all Westminster bubble are lying. It really is as simple as it seems.
The anger over No10 parties is going to combine in a very toxic way for the government when energy price rises start really hitting people’s pockets.
Gas prices have fallen back from the absolute peak, but are still 4x higher than a year ago. If you heat your house with mains gas, then you can assume that the cost of that is going up significantly. It looks like the government will try and smooth out the impact with some kind of loan scheme, but expect consumer prices to approximately double. If gas prices don’t fall back then consumer prices will double again in a year or so unless the government decides to permanently subsidise consumer gas supplies.
This summer might be a great time to insulate the snot out of your home.
I received an email last night from my lecky supplier warning that my bill would go up by 75% in April, please phone us if you anticipate financial distress.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Is it just possible that tory voters are much more angry at Boris for rising gas bills and soaring inflation than they are about parties?
Not my experience on the doorstep, frankly. People have cost of living worries certainly, and want to know how the Government will respond, but that's not the source of the (very real) anger.
MPs claiming it isn't coming up and is all Westminster bubble are lying. It really is as simple as it seems.
A slight nuance might reflect surveys that show that active Conservative members are less concerned than conservative members generally, who are less concerned than conservative voters who are less concerned than all voters.
I reckon some of these “nobody is angry” MPs simply mix in a very narrow circle of party activists during their weekend constituency visits and are misrepresenting that as the wider view of people generally.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
Third beer downed, I presume.
Sadly, no. Stony sober. Had to go into central Colombo to get my train ticket for Galle
Soon gym, then gin, however!
Are you going to Arugam Bay? It's wonderful.
Unfortunately not. I really am just here to work in lovely cheap sunny surroundings. I’m only shifting down to Galle for a tiny change of scenery
This hotel in Colombo is superb. Colombo itself is meh, but this hotel has all I want: a brilliant pool, a brilliant gym, a lovely rooftop garden for sunbathing, splendid views of the Indian Ocean, two nice bars, one on the roof, two cheap and seriously good restaurants. And if I get massively bored, Colombo’s best restaurant is a 2 minute tuk tuk ride away
That’s enough to keep me happy if my work is absorbing enough. And the hotel is new and genuinely 5 star with superb service and it’s £50 a night. Insane
Cummings is obsessed with game theory. I wonder if the Met's intervention is something he hadn't planned for, in which case he may now throw in an equally unpredictable wildcard to compensate.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
For Tory MPs the relevant facts are not "did the PM do wrong?" but rather "will wrongdoing be documented in such a way that we can no longer pretend it didn't happen/wasn't wrongdoing?" - as long as no investigation reports, they can insist they can't act.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Even getting to the summer gets him past Brown and May.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
You do know that subordinate and relative clauses are not the work of the devil don't you. Or are we supposed to imagine Robert Hardy as Churchill reading out your post.
In a hurry. Stuff to do. Only time for points that people need to know.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Even getting to the summer gets him past Brown and May.
Johnson will be running a "something will turn up" strategy from now on in hope of being able to lead them into the 2024 election. Memories fade. New problems. Endless relaunches. Endless stupid new policies about building migrant camps on the Orkneys or whatever.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your country it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
For Tory MPs the relevant facts are not "did the PM do wrong?" but rather "will wrongdoing be documented in such a way that we can no longer pretend it didn't happen/wasn't wrongdoing?" - as long as no investigation reports, they can insist they can't act.
I think it's simpler. They'll ditch him if they become convinced that doing so significantly improves their chances of holding their seats. Otherwise, they won't.
They knew he was incompetent and deeply corrupt when they selected him in the first place.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Even getting to the summer gets him past Brown and May.
Johnson will be running a "something will turn up" strategy from now on in hope of being able to lead them into the 2024 election. Memories fade. New problems. Endless relaunches. Endless stupid new policies about building migrant camps on the Orkneys or whatever.
It won't save him.
"This man partied whilst your loved ones died alone" will be a powerful message.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20% and the final result saw Blair's New Labour 13% ahead of Major's Tories.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20% and the final result saw Blair's New Labour 13% ahead of Major's Tories.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
Current polls not really relevant. Plenty of events between now and the next GE.
I personally think Bojo sticking around is great for Labour
For the next few months anytime a new party revelation comes out or if the PM/Tory MPs and ministers are asked about it they will reply with
‘This is an ongoing police investigation, we cannot comment on it.’
The public will love being told that.
Doesn't even require a new revelation, just something that is vaguely connected enough that you can include a party in it.
PMQs with Boris saying ‘This is an ongoing police investigation, I cannot comment on it.’ multiple times tomorrow is going to be fun.
“I’m very disappointed that LOTO is attempting to interfere with a ongoing police operation. He should be ashamed of himself - the British people deserve better than that.”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Yep. With Johnson still there it will happen. Your man will drag your party down to defeat.
A complication of the Met getting involved and the delay this will cause is that it would be very awkward if Tory MPs booted out Boris only to find that his successor was also caught up in the scandal when the Met eventually gets round to finishing its investigation. A strong reason to hold off putting those letters in.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your country it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
Indeed so, Omicron appears to be impossible to contain in practice, unless you’re willing to go down the Chinese route. It’s going to burn through the population anyway, so once we’ve vaccinated everyone, any restrictions need only be proportionate to avoid an over-run of the healthcare system.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
A complication of the Met getting involved and the delay this will cause is that it would be very awkward if Tory MPs booted out Boris only to find that his successor was also caught up in the scandal when the Met eventually gets round to finishing its investigation. A strong reason to hold off putting those letters in.
One imagines Rishi or Mark Harper are squeaky clean. Not just my book talking. I promise.
I just simply can’t see how “Boris Johnson” has won.
All he’s done is delay the inevitable.
Delaying the inevitable is what Boris does best. Everything is about getting to the next election/month/week. He has made it the burning focus of his whole administration.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
That sounds like a fair system, right?
Yes, the Tories would still lose regardless as the SNP would prop up Starmer but otherwise to get a clear majority Labour need a huge lead absent gains in Scotland.
Remember Cameron's Tories were unable to get a majority in 2010 even 7% ahead of Brown's Labour so it is not as if the boundaries always favoured the Tories either. It was only the Tories making huge gains from the LDs in their heartlands in the South West that won them a majority in 2015
I just simply can’t see how “Boris Johnson” has won.
All he’s done is delay the inevitable.
Not necessarily.
The Police deciding that there is no case to answer, or that it isn’t in the public interest to bring a prosecution, will be the headline, hugely undermining the impact of what otherwise could have been potentially explosive findings from Gray.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
I give him a very conceivable (1 in 3) chance of leading into the GE - so Starmer Next PM is value imo at the current 12.
Meanwhile away from the accused, Brexit is causing increasing fun in Kent. They have closed the coast-bound A20 beyond Eurotunnel as the truck queue through the tunnel was causing a pollution problem. Instead everything is coming off onto normal roads, over the top of the hill then back onto the A20 for the long queue towards Dover.
That could be an interesting development. Cabinet Office: We can't possibly release the report as it would prejudice the ongoing police investigation Police: No it really won't. And it would be beneficial if it was released in full as it would aid our investigation by flushing out all of these issues Minister: Which is why we can't possibly release the report as it would prejudice the ongoing police investigation
If the Gray report has to be published at the Met's request, it contains damning stuff as we already know and then the Met go at it this is a disaster for Team Accused. And they can't possibly hide behind "we can't release this because police" when the police are asking them to release it.
The Police would be right in this respect.
What Downing Street actually mean is not that Sue Gray reporting would prejudice the investigation but that it would make it harder for Johnson (and others) to run certain lines of defence (e.g. harder in practice to say "well, prove I was there on the evening of the 12th" when Sue Gray has said "on the evening of the 12th...") So it's to protect Johnson personally, not to protect the integrity of a Police investigation.
It's a misconception that as soon as Police investigate a crime, nobody can say anything about it. Just look at how widely reported unsolved cases are. Many can recall Dr Shipman himself choosing to give a public statement when he was under investigation and had been arrested. Things change when charges are laid, but there's absolutely no "Police are looking into this so nobody can say anything" rule.
Ans political action can take place regardless of the fine details of that.
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Even getting to the summer gets him past Brown and May.
And also past Jim Callaghan. Then a fair gap to catch Ted Heath. So far he's past two postwar PMs, Eden and Douglas-Home.
I just simply can’t see how “Boris Johnson” has won.
All he’s done is delay the inevitable.
Delaying the inevitable is what Boris does best. Everything is about getting to the next election/month/week. He has made it the burning focus of his whole administration.
Yes, Boris clearly wakes up every morning and does whatever is necessary to not be deposed that day. Tory MPs need to force his hand, face being deposed today or resign tomorrow and let him play out another few months while the next leader is picked.
A complication of the Met getting involved and the delay this will cause is that it would be very awkward if Tory MPs booted out Boris only to find that his successor was also caught up in the scandal when the Met eventually gets round to finishing its investigation. A strong reason to hold off putting those letters in.
I think that may be why the Met is saying they want all of Gray's report published ASAP. So they aren't blamed for any delay in removing Boris.
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
I would have thought: before today he was likely to survive until after local elections just from time to find replacement and don't want new leader appointed just before those elections so stretch the timetable to just after. It is not clear that it is Boris who has or may have broken law but if it was, there would surely be more chance of acting leader being appointed so more chance of going before April.
However the market seems to see chance of Boris going before April as lower so news is seen as more of a delay before Boris goes. So the markets are saying it is unlikely to be Boris that has broken law? Hmm., guess it is more likely to be someone else.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
No10 justification for not telling Cabinet, who were in building and separated from phones, that there was police investigation: “I think it's understandable that given the sensitive nature of what the Met were due to announce its right that that wasn't pre-empted in anyway.”
Not sure trust is very high around that table right now based on that answer...
Hacks: “You said that the information wasn't shared because it was sensitive. Why was Guido Fawkes told about it before Cabinet in that case?”
No10: “I can’t speculate on who leaks information.”
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Depends on how deferential voting plays out. Boris and co will need to actually deliver to keep the Red Wall seats - as I've pointed out before look at Redcar to see what happens if you promise and don't deliver the seat returns to it's default Labour state.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Johnson will survive now. I always thought he would. The Tories are stuck with him. Unfortunately, so are we.
He most likely survives in the short term but whether he survives the year - and therefore to lead into the next GE - depends on polls over the next few months including the real ballot box one in May for the locals.
Coming round to this view. I think its pretty inconceivable that Boris will lead the Tories into next election. Imagine trying to persuade voters to give him another five years. Possibly even he realises that. However he's fighting like a ferret to preserve his historic reputation so he can go at the "time of his choosing" rather than booted out over parties. No doubt this is being touted to queasy Tory MPs.
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
Even getting to the summer gets him past Brown and May.
And also past Jim Callaghan. Then a fair gap to catch Ted Heath. So far he's past two postwar PMs, Eden and Douglas-Home.
It may just be a coincidence, but there's a big gap between Derby (3y 280d) and Peel (5y 57d) - which a May 2024 departure would leave him right in the middle of.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Depends on how deferential voting plays out. Boris and co will need to actually deliver to keep the Red Wall seats - as I've pointed out before look at Redcar to see what happens if you promise and don't deliver the seat returns to it's default Labour state.
Even if Labour regained every single redwall seat lost in 2017 and 2019 they would still be well short of a majority unless they also won most of the seats Brown lost to Cameron in 2010 or most of the seats Ed Miliband lost to the SNP in 2015
A complication of the Met getting involved and the delay this will cause is that it would be very awkward if Tory MPs booted out Boris only to find that his successor was also caught up in the scandal when the Met eventually gets round to finishing its investigation. A strong reason to hold off putting those letters in.
It shouldn't take them that long in that (a) the evidence is irrefutable and not being denied and (b) the PM has already confessed - he "didn't know" he was breaking the law and then it was "only a cake"
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
They likely won't, unless they regain most of their seats lost to the SNP in Scotland.
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
Has Johnson asked Dick to do this - to buy him some time?
I doubt that. Sue Gray was uncomfortable in the position she'd been placed in and has done this to spread the load and the spotlight. That's what I think has happened. It's come from her.
I think that's a good call. Waking up every day as you noted earlier to see that the entire UK government hinges upon your report must be unnerving to say the least. I think she laid off some risk and put her umbrella up.
Yes, the Met don't care whether she publishes the Report this week or not. But she cares. She doesn't want to. Don't blame her at all. Ridiculous position she'd been put in. Tory MPs can act if they want to. They know he's a wrong un. Don't need Sue Gray or the cops to tell them that.
Sue Gray has completely shat the bed. She is surely not so naive that she didn't realise how this step would be weaponised by No 10, to keep the show on the road. It's been discussed here for weeks. All in all it calls into question her supposedly unimpeachable reputation, bottling it because she didn't like the limelight. If Tory MPs don't pick up the slack and VONC him by the weekend then they are as bad.
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
Sue Gray is blameless. Whether he's removed is up to Tory MPs. That was the case last week, it's the case this week, it'll be the case next week and thereafter. There is no relevant fact about 'partygate', or about all the other 'gates' surrounding Boris Johnson, that they're not in possession of.
The situation was that Johnson would be tried in the court of media and public opinion, with his own MPs playing a leading role, and that this was going to happen this week.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
It will depend on whether or not they want to keep their seats at the next election. If Johnson is still there it will be another 1997. And they will all deserve it as well for being too weak to get rid of him.
Except it won't be another 1997, the last 3 polls have Labour leads of 8%, 7% and 7%.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20%.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
If Johnson is still there then Labour will get a majority.
Would you vote Labour under those circumstances Richard?
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
The lesson is that constantly electing clowns and smirking twats reduces your clout on the international stage. Who knew?
Missed this earlier. Hurley Burley presents clips of liar lying to parliament to Sebastian Fox, and "asks" a question by doing her best Alan Partridge shrug at him.
Its always been one of Michael Green's big problems. His face breaks out into that grin where we can see that he knows he is lying and is embarrassed by it.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Can anyone understand what is going on with Germany at the moment?
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
Listening to commentary it seems the deal may prevail.
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
Why don’t the Italians ever get pissed off by this constant snubbing? Italy is roughly the same size, population wise, as metro France. Economically it’s weaker, for sure, but not by enormous margins. Italy is not Greece. Moreover Italy surely is THE home of European culture, Rome, Latin and the Renaissance
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
Because Italy is A.N. Other militarily.
France is a nuclear armed power that spends three times as much on its military as Italy does.
Comments
https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1485959777566048261
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1485956847743946756
@thhamilton 'I'm a former DPP, I know what will or won't prejudice an investigation' is quite hard to get beyond.
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1485960840276844544
Gas prices have fallen back from the absolute peak, but are still 4x higher than a year ago. If you heat your house with mains gas, then you can assume that the cost of that is going up significantly. It looks like the government will try and smooth out the impact with some kind of loan scheme, but expect consumer prices to approximately double. If gas prices don’t fall back then consumer prices will double again in a year or so unless the government decides to permanently subsidise consumer gas supplies.
This summer might be a great time to insulate the snot out of your home.
That in no way contradicts my state of “concerned vigilance” when another variant of the bug hoves into view. Which it has.
It may well be absolutely nothing to worry about, as @turbotubbs says. Or it may be more than that. With the limited evidence we have so far, you can argue it either way, but nothing is conclusive. So, we watch. Warily
Meanwhile with international crisis brewing, someone in No 10 has instead been occupied today with deleting embarrassing tweets. Perhaps "Boris" has been trolling us all these years, a one man soviet sleeper hiding in plain site with an adopted Russian moniker.
The idea that terrorists would bother with a private company was laughable anyway - they were hoping for a report that said they were worth billions to the organisation.
All the people who worked in the tower (like me) thought the report was hilarious. Apart from the po-faced morons to the top floor.
Went to a birthday party... https://twitter.com/SCMPNews/status/1485968174168293379
Of course, being Boris he no doubt wishes to stay in office longer than Theresa May or Gordon Brown. If he survives this year, then he can. To get past Dave would require an election win, so that's probably out of the window now.
He's won.
I reckon some of these “nobody is angry” MPs simply mix in a very narrow circle of party activists during their weekend constituency visits and are misrepresenting that as the wider view of people generally.
This hotel in Colombo is superb. Colombo itself is meh, but this hotel has all I want: a brilliant pool, a brilliant gym, a lovely rooftop garden for sunbathing, splendid views of the Indian Ocean, two nice bars, one on the roof, two cheap and seriously good restaurants. And if I get massively bored, Colombo’s best restaurant is a 2 minute tuk tuk ride away
That’s enough to keep me happy if my work is absorbing enough. And the hotel is new and genuinely 5 star with superb service and it’s £50 a night. Insane
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
Had we had a LOTO who was aligned with Russia, that would have been a really big deal.
The situation now is that Johnson will be tried according to the test of whether a conviction is judged by the Police to be both appropriate and provable - a much higher bar - and over a much longer timeframe. The Police will eventually decide not to take any further action, and at that point public and political enthusiasm for making a big deal of what remains of Gray’s findings will inevitably have subsided.
Unless sufficient MPs are fed up with the whole affair and willing to send in their letters in now, my take is that Johnson has now managed to cling on until after the May elections - which is when even many of the MPs wanting him to go would prefer that it happened.
"I've had 250 letters about the Downing St parties but I had about 900 about Barnard Castle," says one
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1485923790810931202
Standing up for Russia in the current situation is strictly for Useful Idiots and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries of Putin Inc.
And no, I don't think that everyone who is arguing caution is an idiot or a Russian agent.
arguing caution != Standing up for Russia
Corbyn will be doing the latter.
They knew he was incompetent and deeply corrupt when they selected him in the first place.
Breaking @SkyNews understands that @metpoliceuk have not raised any objection to the #SueGrayReport being published in full DURING their investigation
https://twitter.com/skysarahjane/status/1485976659903795201
"This man partied whilst your loved ones died alone" will be a powerful message.
Most polls pre 1997 had Labour leads of 10 to 20% and the final result saw Blair's New Labour 13% ahead of Major's Tories.
At most it looks like another 2010, except with Boris as Brown and Starmer as Cameron and the LDs kingmakers in another hung parliament again with Labour winning most seats rather than the Tories this time
Anyone who voted for his party in 2017 or 2019 ... imagine if you'd won the election and now this was happening.
Corbyn isn't Putin's Puppet by the way - he is his own man. He is a Useful Idiot*.
*term employed by the Soviets for people who would do their bidding, without being asked.
Get a life
I personally think Bojo sticking around is great for Labour
It would take a certain amount of chutzpah…
Otherwise Labour needs to be over 10% ahead of the Tories for a majority of 1 once the new boundaries come in
All he’s done is delay the inevitable.
Everything is about getting to the next election/month/week.
He has made it the burning focus of his whole administration.
Remember Cameron's Tories were unable to get a majority in 2010 even 7% ahead of Brown's Labour so it is not as if the boundaries always favoured the Tories either. It was only the Tories making huge gains from the LDs in their heartlands in the South West that won them a majority in 2015
The Police deciding that there is no case to answer, or that it isn’t in the public interest to bring a prosecution, will be the headline, hugely undermining the impact of what otherwise could have been potentially explosive findings from Gray.
You can taste the
pollutionsovereignty!I would have thought: before today he was likely to survive until after local elections just from time to find replacement and don't want new leader appointed just before those elections so stretch the timetable to just after.
It is not clear that it is Boris who has or may have broken law but if it was, there would surely be more chance of acting leader being appointed so more chance of going before April.
However the market seems to see chance of Boris going before April as lower so news is seen as more of a delay before Boris goes. So the markets are saying it is unlikely to be Boris that has broken law? Hmm., guess it is more likely to be someone else.
Not sure trust is very high around that table right now based on that answer...
Hacks: “You said that the information wasn't shared because it was sensitive. Why was Guido Fawkes told about it before Cabinet in that case?”
No10: “I can’t speculate on who leaks information.”
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1485979207578574851
It is a Qualified Majority decision, and most EU countries support the use of nuclear as a sustainable lo-carbon option.
Germany is thought likely to flag-up the disposal of nuclear waste as an issue, as no one has a solution in place yet.
On the Ukraine debate, after last night's DE FR UK USA EUCO phone call, a more unified front seems to have been established to some extent.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=43&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
And wtf has happened to his 'very high' muscle/fat ratio ?!!
eg a croc ate a journo from the FT.
Take care whilst relieving yourself.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/09/15/financial-times-journalist-is-killed-in-crocodile-attack-on-surfing-vacation-in-sri-lanka/
It may just be a coincidence, but there's a big gap between Derby (3y 280d) and Peel (5y 57d) - which a May 2024 departure would leave him right in the middle of.
Yet Italy is always lumped in with Belgium and Romania under “EUCO”
(Assuming Starmer still leader)
Its always been one of Michael Green's big problems. His face breaks out into that grin where we can see that he knows he is lying and is embarrassed by it.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1485885950597156864
France is a nuclear armed power that spends three times as much on its military as Italy does.