If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Yes but you are a LD as I assume is your wife, 52% of Surrey voted Remain in 2016.
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
HYUFD voted Remain in 2016.
I accepted the Brexit result however, unlike Dominic Grieve or Anna Soubry or Sam Gyimah, who indeed became a LD
But you didn't want Leave to win! You only became a Leaver AFTER Leave won!
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
I wonder if he's been strongly advised to settle up but has had a 'I fight on, I fight to win' moment? Or Giuffre's suggestion that she wants her day in court regardless of any pound of flesh offered has prompted a clearing of the decks.
Thinking about Johnson using Covid isolation rules as a way to hide from public scrutiny I now think I agree with our resident libertarian pirate in thinking that it is time for those rules to go. I was content for them to stay for the time being, to reduce the size of the peak of the Omicron wave, but with cases now rapidly falling, and the rules proving to be more useful for political expediency rather than public health, I have now changed my mind.
Scrap the Covid isolation rules - force Johnson to face scrutiny for his misdeeds.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
There's also who has been vaccinated - this was the situation three weeks ago:
I'd actually say it's the other way around for cases and mild symptoms which may be registered in the testing system. Our under 40s are far less vaccinated than the French under 40s yet we're registering far, far fewer symptomatic Omicron cases among those groups than in France. The difference is that we've had 7-9m Delta cases in those groups over the last few months while France has had just a couple of million. Two doses doesn't seem to give any protection from mild symptoms at all but still decent protection from severe symptoms and France ramped up their booster programme for under 40s later than we did.
I'd be really interested to know how many of their unvaccinated have had infections, I think that and two dose immunity is why their case numbers are extremely high.
Off-Topic Post
MAX - in your personal opinion would it be wise to buy a subscription to PS Now at the present time?
I'm concerned that a new tiered approach would mean I had to pay more to stream games. Not fussed about playing online, just want to be able to try lots of games out from the PS library. And hoping that current subscriptions aren't downgraded.
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Where does this alleged 300+ number come from?
I have yet to see it on the Coronavirus Dashboard.
Someone is using reporting day numbers.. Someone is being naughty {kicks the cage of flying lawyers with baseball bats}
Jonathan Powell @jnpowell1 · 3h 5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
Link from a comment on that thread, in depth description of Sue Gray from 2015
She sounds like a less user friendly Rosa Klebb, and the last person I'd want investigating me. Effectively did for Fox and Mitchell apparently
The big thing about Sue Gray, if I've heard this once this last few days I've heard it a thousand times, is that she goes about her job "without fear or favour". Which sounds terrific. This Report of hers needs to be pretty devastating to live up to the expectations I've (perhaps foolishly) allowed myself to develop. How it might not be is if it sticks too much to de-blooded mundane facts. We want the facts, yes, but we also want some editorial so long as it flows with irrefutable logic from those facts. I think it might shy away from that. But we'll see. I certainly haven't looked forward to a report from the civil service so much for ages.
I hesitate to say this for fear of what my mentions will look like, but was chatting to an MP this morning who said one of the ways that the heat eases on the PM is that other big stories develop (and this person explicitly mentioned Prince Andrew) & attention shifts somewhat. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
Detoxified? Ho ho. We’ll see how the detoxification process is going in May.
The Metropolitan Police are already being taken to court by @GoodLawProject who argue that the police’s decision not to investigate any of the parties is unlawful. A judicial review has been launched. It will be fascinating to see what the judge concludes. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481679904852873218
This also piles huge additional pressure on Sue Gray. Not only must she now rule on whether staff behaved inappropriately in Downing Street, but she will know her conclusion will be the sole basis for whether or not her colleagues are potentially convicted of a crime. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481680285334917120
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
No special insight there. Sensible to hold off for a couple of weeks which may bring a damning Gray report and/or fresh goodies from Dom's word hoard, and not run the risk of a messy Gray whitewash.
"At the moment, your [a red wall mp's] smirking, fun-loving, idle, self-indulgent, hypocritical, useless, mendacious leader is doing his utmost to lose you your lovely job.
...
Liz Truss is very on-trend at the moment, but only because she’s whatever any given Tory MP would like her to be. It’s difficult to think of any single achievement she has to her name for her years as a minister, passing through Defra, Justice and International Trade with nothing more to her name than an excruciating speech about cheese.
...
Sunak is a bit awkward and geeky, and so loaded he is out of touch with the merely rich."
I think it's Sunak. The fizzy Truss fun loving lightweight look is disastrous.
Mind you wtf were they thinking giving a vote to the membership? Here's a lovely bloke on conhome today
"So, if BJ is to go, who exactly should we support instead and what policy lines are going to generate votes from the electorate? The person has to appeal to prevailing popular sentiment - zeal for change? Safety first? My personal priorities are to keep out of the EU; get rid of the hate crime laws, and reduce immigration to an insignificant trickle."
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
Jonathan Powell @jnpowell1 · 3h 5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
Link from a comment on that thread, in depth description of Sue Gray from 2015
She sounds like a less user friendly Rosa Klebb, and the last person I'd want investigating me. Effectively did for Fox and Mitchell apparently
The big thing about Sue Gray, if I've heard this once this last few days I've heard it a thousand times, is that she goes about her job "without fear or favour". Which sounds terrific. This Report of hers needs to be pretty devastating to live up to the expectations I've (perhaps foolishly) allowed myself to develop. How it might not be is if it sticks too much to de-blooded mundane facts. We want the facts, yes, but we also want some editorial so long as it flows with irrefutable logic from those facts. I think it might shy away from that. But we'll see. I certainly haven't looked forward to a report from the civil service so much for ages.
We’re not going to get any of that.
We’re just going to get a recantation of the facts, most of which we already know.
There may be some extra events in the list, which so far haven’t been revealed.
The only smoking gun is whether Reynolds - who is surely toast whatever happens - is prepared to say that the PM suggested or authorised the event and approved the email sending out the hundred invitations.
If Reynolds is willing to go quietly, then all we’ll have is the same argument resumed that began yesterday. The key, for the PM, will be what view his MPs have settled upon in the light of their postbag, their time in their constituencies this weekend, and the next batch of opinion polls.
I hesitate to say this for fear of what my mentions will look like, but was chatting to an MP this morning who said one of the ways that the heat eases on the PM is that other big stories develop (and this person explicitly mentioned Prince Andrew) & attention shifts somewhat. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
Queenie knifed her favourite son to protect the FLSOJ?
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
Detoxified? Ho ho. We’ll see how the detoxification process is going in May.
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
Jonathan Powell @jnpowell1 · 3h 5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
Link from a comment on that thread, in depth description of Sue Gray from 2015
She sounds like a less user friendly Rosa Klebb, and the last person I'd want investigating me. Effectively did for Fox and Mitchell apparently
The big thing about Sue Gray, if I've heard this once this last few days I've heard it a thousand times, is that she goes about her job "without fear or favour". Which sounds terrific. This Report of hers needs to be pretty devastating to live up to the expectations I've (perhaps foolishly) allowed myself to develop. How it might not be is if it sticks too much to de-blooded mundane facts. We want the facts, yes, but we also want some editorial so long as it flows with irrefutable logic from those facts. I think it might shy away from that. But we'll see. I certainly haven't looked forward to a report from the civil service so much for ages.
We’re not going to get any of that.
We’re just going to get a recantation of the facts, most of which we already know.
There may be some extra events in the list, which so far haven’t been revealed.
The only smoking gun is whether Reynolds - who is surely toast whatever happens - is prepared to say that the PM suggested or authorised the event and approved the email sending out the hundred invitations.
If Reynolds is willing to go quietly, then all we’ll have is the same argument resumed that began yesterday. The key, for the PM, will be what view his MPs have settled upon in the light of their postbag, their time in their constituencies this weekend, and the next batch of opinion polls.
Aren't you forgetting that we are likely to be hearing about yet another party in a few days time?
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
Detoxified? Ho ho. We’ll see how the detoxification process is going in May.
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
They will certainly be less than 2019 given fewer seats are up and Labour already hold most of the council seats that will be up, unlike in 2019 when most councillors up were Tory
I hesitate to say this for fear of what my mentions will look like, but was chatting to an MP this morning who said one of the ways that the heat eases on the PM is that other big stories develop (and this person explicitly mentioned Prince Andrew) & attention shifts somewhat. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
Queenie knifed her favourite son to protect the FLSOJ?
Why?
The Queen is bound to act on the advice of her ministers. Constitutional Monarchy, innit?
I hesitate to say this for fear of what my mentions will look like, but was chatting to an MP this morning who said one of the ways that the heat eases on the PM is that other big stories develop (and this person explicitly mentioned Prince Andrew) & attention shifts somewhat. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
It's somewhat plausible to me that a government intermediary between MI5 and McFall could have brought that alert forward ahead of time, but that seems another step less likely with the Andrew story.
Boris survives for a new day with a few sighs of relief, and I suspect we're into that long cycle discussed, where every time it looks like there's a slight recovery in the polls, as there may be again in a week or two, another leak will be handed to the press.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
Detoxified? Ho ho. We’ll see how the detoxification process is going in May.
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
The small tendrils of recovery by the SCons in Glasgow may be brutally blighted, SLab the possible beneficiary (could be replicated across Scotland).
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
The position of Duke of York is also arguably hereditary, every holder of the title has been one of Andrew's distant ancestors.
The Duke of York was created as a hereditary title for a non firstborn son of the monarch eg the 1st Duke of York, Edmund Langley, was son of King Edward IIIrd
"On Thursday evening Ballymore had planned to seek approval for one of the UK’s tallest residential buildings close to Canary Wharf in east London, but withdrew its application after fire safety experts branded as “madness” its plan to build more than 400 flats in a tower two-and-a-half times the height of Grenfell with just one staircase."
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Where does this alleged 300+ number come from?
I have yet to see it on the Coronavirus Dashboard.
On here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ 335 reported today, similar amount the last couple of days (not just catch up Tuesday).
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
The position of Duke of York is also arguably hereditary, every holder of the title has been one of Andrew's distant ancestors.
Oh, so you think that the Royal Family have engaged in repeated adultery and incest over the centuries?
"On Thursday evening Ballymore had planned to seek approval for one of the UK’s tallest residential buildings close to Canary Wharf in east London, but withdrew its application after fire safety experts branded as “madness” its plan to build more than 400 flats in a tower two-and-a-half times the height of Grenfell with just one staircase."
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
The position of Duke of York is also arguably hereditary, every holder of the title has been one of Andrew's distant ancestors.
The dukedom he holds is hereditary, but he is the first holder. It's the eighth Dukedom of York.
I hesitate to say this for fear of what my mentions will look like, but was chatting to an MP this morning who said one of the ways that the heat eases on the PM is that other big stories develop (and this person explicitly mentioned Prince Andrew) & attention shifts somewhat. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
Queenie knifed her favourite son to protect the FLSOJ?
Why?
The Queen is bound to act on the advice of her ministers. Constitutional Monarchy, innit?
I think on this issue she could and would tell them to get fcked. I really doubt this is driven by anything other than the progress of the litigation
Timing of London Bridge is also relevant. I suspect Chas n baldy loathe Andrew anyway, and certainly don't want to inherit him as an ongoing problem at the start of a new reign
UPDATE: And here is a fresh letter tonight from @GoodLawProject to Met Police saying they believe the decision not to investigate the 20th May garden party in particular is clearly unlawful, given the significant evidence provided by the leaked email and the PM’s admission. https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481683757325336579/photo/1
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Where does this alleged 300+ number come from?
I have yet to see it on the Coronavirus Dashboard.
Someone is using reporting day numbers.. Someone is being naughty {kicks the cage of flying lawyers with baseball bats}
Actual numbers...
Do you happen to have a link to an example of such a report?
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
Detoxified? Ho ho. We’ll see how the detoxification process is going in May.
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
In 2018 the national vote shares were estimated at 35% for both Tory and Labour - thus who leads this time will be an indication as to the swing between the parties - with the LibDems on a relatively high 16%.
Labour is defending the most councillors and councils, because this year’s cycle is oriented towards urban areas, in most of which you’d expect them to be safe given recent polling.
In London, the Tories might be vulnerable in Barnet, but it will take a big swing to unseat them elsewhere. It’ll be interesting to see what ground the LibDems recover against Labour in the inner Boroughs.
Elsewhere, in terms of councils there isn’t that much for the Tories to lose. Peterborough is a possibility if the results are really bad. Swing areas like Thurrock and Swindon might throw up interesting results, and the LibDems might benefit from a Tory collapse in Portsmouth.
But it is hard to see much dramatic news arising even from a bad poll for the Tories - their opposition groups in many Labour controlled councils may well return reduced in size, but this is hardly headline news.
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
I hesitate to say this for fear of what my mentions will look like, but was chatting to an MP this morning who said one of the ways that the heat eases on the PM is that other big stories develop (and this person explicitly mentioned Prince Andrew) & attention shifts somewhat. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
Queenie knifed her favourite son to protect the FLSOJ?
Why?
Cos of 5G! And vaccine!!
No doubt the illuminati and New World Order will be along shortly.....
Sincere condolences to those currently putting together 1800 news programmes. I mean, what are the odds that in one day we hear the PM cannot possibly appear in front of a camera, that Chinese spies previously reported on are again a big concern, Prince Andrew no longer gets the honour of being toasted by large chunks of the armed forces and is now apparently a private citizen (living in his mum’s castle), AND that the Met still appears to have the same Chief Commissioner.
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
The small tendrils of recovery by the SCons in Glasgow may be brutally blighted, SLab the possible beneficiary (could be replicated across Scotland).
Yes, I think that's right, the Tories will lose out mainly to the benefit of SLab in Glasgow etc. That said I think the Tories might still hold up where they're strong like in Aberdeenshire.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
Detoxified? Ho ho. We’ll see how the detoxification process is going in May.
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
They will certainly be less than 2019 given fewer seats are up and Labour already hold most of the council seats that will be up, unlike in 2019 when most councillors up were Tory
A quick look suggests that, if losses were as bad numerically as in 2019. the Tories would get precisely two councillors elected in May! It's not exactly that as the seats up this year aren't exactly the same as in 2018 due to reorganisations etc, but the 2019 round just had a lot of wards up (many of them tiny wards but still).
May lost around a quarter of Tory councillors up in 2019 (which was a dire year and the base was an excellent year for the blues coinciding with the General Election in 2015). A quarter lost this year would be around 300 but the base is lower as 2018 wasn't a vintage Tory year but okay - basically tied with Labour in % vote.
Sticking my neck on the line, I'm predicting 120 losses. Net gains would be a triumph, losses under 100 would be not great but okay, losses over 150 bad, losses over 200 dire.
I was at the Luton Town v Wolverhampton Wanderers FA Cup match on 20th February, 1960. At half-time it was announced that the Queen had given birth to another son, Andrew. The crowd (most of whom were already standing) burst into rapturous applause. Strange to look back on that now. And for those of you keener on football than royalty, Wolves beat Luton 4-1 - and went on to win the FA Cup in May.
Jonathan Powell @jnpowell1 · 3h 5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
Link from a comment on that thread, in depth description of Sue Gray from 2015
She sounds like a less user friendly Rosa Klebb, and the last person I'd want investigating me. Effectively did for Fox and Mitchell apparently
The big thing about Sue Gray, if I've heard this once this last few days I've heard it a thousand times, is that she goes about her job "without fear or favour". Which sounds terrific. This Report of hers needs to be pretty devastating to live up to the expectations I've (perhaps foolishly) allowed myself to develop. How it might not be is if it sticks too much to de-blooded mundane facts. We want the facts, yes, but we also want some editorial so long as it flows with irrefutable logic from those facts. I think it might shy away from that. But we'll see. I certainly haven't looked forward to a report from the civil service so much for ages.
We’re not going to get any of that.
We’re just going to get a recantation of the facts, most of which we already know.
There may be some extra events in the list, which so far haven’t been revealed.
The only smoking gun is whether Reynolds - who is surely toast whatever happens - is prepared to say that the PM suggested or authorised the event and approved the email sending out the hundred invitations.
If Reynolds is willing to go quietly, then all we’ll have is the same argument resumed that began yesterday. The key, for the PM, will be what view his MPs have settled upon in the light of their postbag, their time in their constituencies this weekend, and the next batch of opinion polls.
Aren't you forgetting that we are likely to be hearing about yet another party in a few days time?
Certainly, there is the question as to what Cummo has left in his box of tricks, and how cleverly he times its release.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
The position of Duke of York is also arguably hereditary, every holder of the title has been one of Andrew's distant ancestors.
The Duke of York was created as a hereditary title for a non firstborn son of the monarch eg the 1st Duke of York, Edmund Langley, was son of King Edward IIIrd
Andy is descended from both one of the Princes in the Tower and Prince Fredrick? Pretty radical reinterpretation of English and British history you’ve foisted on us there HYUFD.
Did someone say yesterday BoZo admitted to being at the party in the Commons so it is under Parliamentary privilege and therefore inadmissible?
It was in The Times.
And ministers were queuing up to explain on broadcast media how he'd apologised sincerely, which could only been true if he'd admitted to doing the thing he'd apologised for, and IIRC one MP even said the event was a party to welcome Boris and Raab back to work.
Blimey. Is Rees-Mogg such a "big figure" that his burblings are even worth discussing?
When he describes someone else as a lightweight, the words "pot" and "kettle" come immediately to mind,
Unfortunately as someone who attends Cabinet (I don't think Leader of the House is a Cabinet position technically), he is not lightweight by virtue of position, even if he should be.
Did someone say yesterday BoZo admitted to being at the party in the Commons so it is under Parliamentary privilege and therefore inadmissible?
It was in The Times.
And ministers were queuing up to explain on broadcast media how he'd apologised sincerely, which could only been true if he'd admitted to doing the thing he'd apologised for, and IIRC one MP even said the event was a party to welcome Boris and Raab back to work.
Apologised for what? For that you’d have to refer to the inadmissible comment.
I was at the Luton Town v Wolverhampton Wanderers FA Cup match on 20th February, 1960. At half-time it was announced that the Queen had given birth to another son, Andrew. The crowd (most of whom were already standing) burst into rapturous applause. Strange to look back on that now. And for those of you keener on football than royalty, Wolves beat Luton 4-1 - and went on to win the FA Cup in May.
Yes poor Queenie, what an utterly miserable couple of years and background to the jubilee. Really feel for her. And that photo of her alone at Phil's funeral is why the suggestion about Andrew is nonsense.
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
Quite disgraceful.
The Met should have the courtesy to ask Boris Johnson whether he wants a police investigation, and do what he says.
When you’re benchmarking her against Johnson, effectively saying ‘at least she’s better than Johnson, thats pretty desperate stuff.
But we’re talking about her popularity in England. Her party doesn’t even put up candidates in England.
It’s pretty unusual for any foreign leader to be more popular than that country’s own head of government. Maybe Obama was more popular than Brown? Probably other, better examples. But still bloody unusual.
When you’re benchmarking her against Johnson, effectively saying ‘at least she’s better than Johnson, thats pretty desperate stuff.
But we’re talking about her popularity in England. Her party doesn’t even put up candidates in England.
It’s pretty unusual for any foreign leader to be more popular than that country’s own head of government. Maybe Obama was more popular than Brown? Probably other, better examples. But still bloody unusual.
Is there a figure for Mr J's popularity in the UK + EU?
Blimey. Is Rees-Mogg such a "big figure" that his burblings are even worth discussing?
When he describes someone else as a lightweight, the words "pot" and "kettle" come immediately to mind,
Unfortunately as someone who attends Cabinet (I don't think Leader of the House is a Cabinet position technically), he is not lightweight by virtue of position, even if he should be.
I bet they have to tie lead weights to his feet to stop him floating round the room.
Blimey. Is Rees-Mogg such a "big figure" that his burblings are even worth discussing?
When he describes someone else as a lightweight, the words "pot" and "kettle" come immediately to mind,
Unfortunately as someone who attends Cabinet (I don't think Leader of the House is a Cabinet position technically), he is not lightweight by virtue of position, even if he should be.
As his position depends on Johnson's patronage, and as he has absolutely nothing going for him otherwise, he'll be lightweight soon enough when Johnson goes. Hence the desperate if doomed efforts to prop up Johnson.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
The position of Duke of York is also arguably hereditary, every holder of the title has been one of Andrew's distant ancestors.
The Duke of York was created as a hereditary title for a non firstborn son of the monarch eg the 1st Duke of York, Edmund Langley, was son of King Edward IIIrd
Andy is descended from both one of the Princes in the Tower and Prince Fredrick? Pretty radical reinterpretation of English and British history you’ve foisted on us there HYUFD.
The Princes in the Tower's sister was Henry VII's wife, Henry VIIth's wife was of course related to Andrew via her daughter, Queen Margaret of Scotland.
Prince Frederick was Queen Victoria's uncle, thus also related to Andrew
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
He is no longer a working royal or with a royal title and only 9th in the line of succession.
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
I think I am right in saying that the Duke of Marlborough and Lord Brocket couldn't have their honours forfeited as their honours were inherited rather than awarded (i.e. hereditary rather than life honours).
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
The position of Duke of York is also arguably hereditary, every holder of the title has been one of Andrew's distant ancestors.
The Duke of York was created as a hereditary title for a non firstborn son of the monarch eg the 1st Duke of York, Edmund Langley, was son of King Edward IIIrd
Andy is descended from both one of the Princes in the Tower and Prince Fredrick? Pretty radical reinterpretation of English and British history you’ve foisted on us there HYUFD.
Yes, the Princes in the Tower's sister was Henry VII's wife, Henry VIIth's wife was of course related to Andrew via her daughter, Queen Margaret of Scotland.
Prince Frederick was Queen Victoria's uncle, thus also related to Andrew
You said "ancestor" which means in the direct line of descent.
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
Sounds wrong. But Sue would have to stop and wait for them, delaying from end of next week till who knows when?
I am very relieved the Met will not act before Sue Gray's report which is due in 10 days, but would have been kicked into the long grass and this political crisis seeing no ending
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Where does this alleged 300+ number come from?
I have yet to see it on the Coronavirus Dashboard.
Someone is using reporting day numbers.. Someone is being naughty {kicks the cage of flying lawyers with baseball bats}
Actual numbers...
Do you happen to have a link to an example of such a report?
All the reports I generate are from the Dashboard data via their open api -
The Standard was told that three members of the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs have handed in letters of no confidence in Mr Johnson
Four senior Tories have gone public in calling for Mr Johnson to resign including Scottish leader Mr Ross, Mr Wragg, former minister Caroline Nokes, and ex-leader of the Tories in Scotland Baroness Davidson
BREAKING: The Metropolitan Police will NOT investigate any of the Downing Street parties unless and until the Sue Gray inquiry finds evidence of criminality.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
Sounds wrong. But Sue would have to stop and wait for them, delaying from end of next week till who knows when?
I am very relieved the Met will not act before Sue Gray's report which is due in 10 days, but would have been kicked into the long grass and this political crisis seeing no ending
I agree. I feared the same. But technically it wrong. So technically wrong but we are still happy?
Maybe they made the statement because of all the calls from number 10 saying “please investigate me” 😆
“I was trying to come up with a comparison to Boris’s ‘I thought it was a work event’ and all I can think of are those people who go into hospital with a bottle stuck up their bum and claim they slipped and fell onto it.”
Comments
Scrap the Covid isolation rules - force Johnson to face scrutiny for his misdeeds.
ie the Met are relying on an internal inquiry to decide for them whether a crime was committed.
Full statement 👇 https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481678636096892929/photo/1
Removing his non royal title however does not follow precedent, even some convicted criminals have kept their titles eg the current Duke of Marlborough or Lord Brocket, who both did their time and are now back in society with their titles still
Out, Out, Out!
MAX - in your personal opinion would it be wise to buy a subscription to PS Now at the present time?
I'm concerned that a new tiered approach would mean I had to pay more to stream games. Not fussed about playing online, just want to be able to try lots of games out from the PS library. And hoping that current subscriptions aren't downgraded.
Peppercorn or béarnaise?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Nicola_Sturgeon
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481679179242520582
The law must be for all.
Why the hell is it ok for police to fine people like this;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59986522
???
Ridiculous.
“even if [the party] could be said technically to fall within the guidance, there would be millions of people who would not see it that way.”
He doesn’t think HE is in the wrong. He thinks WE are. We - the public. Wrong to see it as a breach of the law.😡
https://twitter.com/susannareid100/status/1481677954186985472
Actual numbers...
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1481679394116706314
And I'd expect date of death to be less sensitive to the holidays than sample date for cases.
She is a French citizen.
She had the opportunity, and also a (maybe) role model.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481679904852873218
https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1481678691369373702
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1481680285334917120
(& that's before the current shit show)
This is rather good:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-liz-truss-jeremy-hunt-b1990694.html
"At the moment, your [a red wall mp's] smirking, fun-loving, idle, self-indulgent, hypocritical, useless, mendacious leader is doing his utmost to lose you your lovely job.
...
Liz Truss is very on-trend at the moment, but only because she’s whatever any given Tory MP would like her to be. It’s difficult to think of any single achievement she has to her name for her years as a minister, passing through Defra, Justice and International Trade with nothing more to her name than an excruciating speech about cheese.
...
Sunak is a bit awkward and geeky, and so loaded he is out of touch with the merely rich."
I think it's Sunak. The fizzy Truss fun loving lightweight look is disastrous.
Mind you wtf were they thinking giving a vote to the membership? Here's a lovely bloke on conhome today
"So, if BJ is to go, who exactly should we support instead and what policy lines are going to generate votes from the electorate? The person has to appeal to prevailing popular sentiment - zeal for change? Safety first? My personal priorities are to keep out of the EU; get rid of the hate crime laws, and reduce immigration to an insignificant trickle."
Some have suggested that Johnson wants them in, so that a long, long investigation can lose all the evidence.
Plod are well aware that no-one loves them in politics anymore and staying well to the back is probably the smart move.
We’re just going to get a recantation of the facts, most of which we already know.
There may be some extra events in the list, which so far haven’t been revealed.
The only smoking gun is whether Reynolds - who is surely toast whatever happens - is prepared to say that the PM suggested or authorised the event and approved the email sending out the hundred invitations.
If Reynolds is willing to go quietly, then all we’ll have is the same argument resumed that began yesterday. The key, for the PM, will be what view his MPs have settled upon in the light of their postbag, their time in their constituencies this weekend, and the next batch of opinion polls.
Why?
I believe the remit of the Honours Forfeiture Committee only extends to whether information has come to light since award which means the honour shouldn't have been awarded and forfeiture is needed to secure the integrity of the honours system. But nothing the present Duke of Marlborough has done calls into question the decision by Queen Anne or whoever it was in respect of the 1st Duke (I mean, you can argue hereditary titles are completely unjustifiable but that's a general point, creates a bit of a problem for the monarchy, and would require legislation to change).
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson
Boris survives for a new day with a few sighs of relief, and I suspect we're into that long cycle discussed, where every time it looks like there's a slight recovery in the polls, as there may be again in a week or two, another leak will be handed to the press.
The Duke of York was created as a hereditary title for a non firstborn son of the monarch eg the 1st Duke of York, Edmund Langley, was son of King Edward IIIrd
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/13/plans-for-51-storey-london-tower-with-just-one-staircase-put-on-hold
"On Thursday evening Ballymore had planned to seek approval for one of the UK’s tallest residential buildings close to Canary Wharf in east London, but withdrew its application after fire safety experts branded as “madness” its plan to build more than 400 flats in a tower two-and-a-half times the height of Grenfell with just one staircase."
335 reported today, similar amount the last couple of days (not just catch up Tuesday).
https://twitter.com/Ballymore_ruin/status/1405596191233130496
You'd have to be nuts to buy one of their flats.
Timing of London Bridge is also relevant. I suspect Chas n baldy loathe Andrew anyway, and certainly don't want to inherit him as an ongoing problem at the start of a new reign
The Met are so incompetent that they couldn't catch the Piranha Brothers.. Or Spiny Norman for that matter...
DINSDAAAAAALE!
Labour is defending the most councillors and councils, because this year’s cycle is oriented towards urban areas, in most of which you’d expect them to be safe given recent polling.
In London, the Tories might be vulnerable in Barnet, but it will take a big swing to unseat them elsewhere. It’ll be interesting to see what ground the LibDems recover against Labour in the inner Boroughs.
Elsewhere, in terms of councils there isn’t that much for the Tories to lose. Peterborough is a possibility if the results are really bad. Swing areas like Thurrock and Swindon might throw up interesting results, and the LibDems might benefit from a Tory collapse in Portsmouth.
But it is hard to see much dramatic news arising even from a bad poll for the Tories - their opposition groups in many Labour controlled councils may well return reduced in size, but this is hardly headline news.
No doubt the illuminati and New World Order will be along shortly.....
https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1481684522362093572
What are the likely Tory losses in the locals in May? What can we predict?
The small tendrils of recovery by the SCons in Glasgow may be brutally blighted, SLab the possible beneficiary (could be replicated across Scotland).
Yes, I think that's right, the Tories will lose out mainly to the benefit of SLab in Glasgow etc. That said I think the Tories might still hold up where they're strong like in Aberdeenshire.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/13/face-masks-make-people-look-more-attractive-study-finds
May lost around a quarter of Tory councillors up in 2019 (which was a dire year and the base was an excellent year for the blues coinciding with the General Election in 2015). A quarter lost this year would be around 300 but the base is lower as 2018 wasn't a vintage Tory year but okay - basically tied with Labour in % vote.
Sticking my neck on the line, I'm predicting 120 losses. Net gains would be a triumph, losses under 100 would be not great but okay, losses over 150 bad, losses over 200 dire.
When he describes someone else as a lightweight, the words "pot" and "kettle" come immediately to mind,
Strange to look back on that now.
And for those of you keener on football than royalty, Wolves beat Luton 4-1 - and went on to win the FA Cup in May.
Catch you all tomorrrow.
https://twitter.com/andym0rgan/status/1481656200081018885?s=21
The Met should have the courtesy to ask Boris Johnson whether he wants a police investigation, and do what he says.
It’s pretty unusual for any foreign leader to be more popular than that country’s own head of government. Maybe Obama was more popular than Brown? Probably other, better examples. But still bloody unusual.
Prince Frederick was Queen Victoria's uncle, thus also related to Andrew
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/developers-guide/main-api
The actual query for this data is
https://api.coronavirus.data.gov.uk/v1/data?page=1&filters=areaType=overview&structure={"date":"date","areaName":"areaName","areaType":"areaType","areaCode":"areaCode","cases":"newCasesBySpecimenDate","deaths":"newDeaths28DaysByDeathDate","hospitalCases":"hospitalCases","newAdmissions":"newAdmissions","covidOccupiedMVBeds":"covidOccupiedMVBeds","newPillarOne":"newPillarOneTestsByPublishDate","newPillarTwo":"newPillarTwoTestsByPublishDate","cumAdmissionsByAge":"cumAdmissionsByAge","femaleCases":"femaleCases","maleCases":"maleCases","cumFirstDose":"cumPeopleVaccinatedFirstDoseByPublishDate","cumSecondDose":"cumPeopleVaccinatedSecondDoseByPublishDate"}
It gets other UK level data, but the "deaths" field in the returned JSON is the one you want....
The Standard was told that three members of the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs have handed in letters of no confidence in Mr Johnson
Four senior Tories have gone public in calling for Mr Johnson to resign including Scottish leader Mr Ross, Mr Wragg, former minister Caroline Nokes, and ex-leader of the Tories in Scotland Baroness Davidson
Maybe they made the statement because of all the calls from number 10 saying “please investigate me” 😆