I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Fun fact. The other other day, Aerojet were asked how long it would take to make new RS-25 engines (updated versions of the Space Shuttle main engines, used on the new SLS launcher)
They said they'd cut the time *per engine* down to less than *3 years*.
How much lead time does that involve for components, or is it all just assembly?
(But yes, it is a long time. Then again, the SSMEs are beasts.)
Order to arrival of shiny at your door...
SpaceX are making Raptor engines at faster than 1 every 2 days. A rate which Musk considers dangerously slow.
Comparable thrust, and the Raptor is much more advanced - FFSC and crazy chamber pressure - though the R-25 does have higher ISP, since it is HydroLox.
I assume JRM's master strategy here is to act like such a spanner he comes across as UK No. 1 Spanner and thereby relegates Boris to No. 2 and takes all the heat off him.
Interesting ; the China story seems to have already been reported by the Times last year - except that time it was about her standing outside the door of No.10. It looks like a re-leak of information which has already been out there for some time, with beautifully useful timing.
...
I don't think Cummings would want the McCarthy-style anti-Corbyn coverage the Sun ( and to a lesser extent Mail ) are suddenly coming up with, though. It looks more damaging for Labour. Large donatons, Corbyn and Livingstone, reds under the bed, etc.
Not to wreck your conspiracy it is all some sort of diversion tactic to knock Party-gate off the headlines, but this has come about because The Lord Speaker today has emailed everybody after MI5 briefed him that this individual is another spy operating in and around Westminster. The Lord Speaker is of course John McFall, a former Labour minister.
I still find it rather odd, considering this is apparently the third time it's already been in the public domain. By accident or some unclear form of design, it's nevertheless a blessed minor relief for the government.
Interesting ; the China story seems to have already been reported by the Times last year - except that time it was about her standing outside the door of No.10. It looks like a re-leak of information which has already been out there for some time, with beautifully useful timing.
...
I don't think Cummings would want the McCarthy-style anti-Corbyn coverage the Sun ( and to a lesser extent Mail ) are suddenly coming up with, though, at this particular moment. It looks more damaging for Labour. Large donatons, Corbyn and Livingstone, reds under the bed, etc.
Helpful to Starmer if anything. Even some Corbynites, have realise that China isn't a Communist friend anymore.
Jacob Rees Mogg is the absolute worst of them. A desperately mediocre man whose contrived, cut glass, accent and privileged birth have bought him position and power that his abilities do not get close to justifying. He is the English disease in its purest human form.
And so hard to avoid too. Where's this Cancel Culture when you really need it? Nowhere to be seen.
JRM is, of course, a sad example of downward social mobility which can overtake even the most exalted families. His father was a distinguished journalist and editor who rose to the top of his profession through ability alone, and is best remembered for a Times editorial condemning the imprisonment of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for drug possession.
Butterfly on a wheel! Great phrase and hats off to the Daddy Mogg if he coined it.
All his son has coined is coin.
Alexander Pope, apparently. Doubtless WRM was familiar with his oeuvre, much as Harold Macmillan enjoyed nothing better after lunch than to curl up with a Trollope. (Old TW3 joke. You have to imagine David Frost's smirky delivery.)
Someone has been reading what I wrote on PB a couple of weeks ago. The Emperor's New Clothes attack line is so obvious even I could think of it.
The problem with lines like that is that they're primarily used by the same old Europhiles who've spent years bashing Boris and the people who voted for him because they don't like his politics. People who want to gloat that electing Boris in 2019, or voting for Brexit in 2016 was a mistake.
Boris needs to go, I've been saying it for about four months now, but that doesn't mean people made a mistake in either 2016 or 2019. Boris can govern - he's done some very good things like getting Brexit done and ensuring we're the most vaccinated, most tested and most open economy in Europe.
But it doesn't matter how good a lawmaker is at governing, if they break their own laws, they've got to go. That is a red line that is absolute.
They didn't make a mistake in 2016 - I still hold that Boris was not he main reason for the referendum win. They did make a massive mistake in 2019. Irrespective of the effect of the outcome on the Brexit progression, no one in the rights minds should have been voting for Boris. Indeed Boris getting into power was probably a bigger threat to the long term success of Brexit than anything else on the horizon at that time and whatever you thought of that particular issue, handing over the keys to the castle to someone so utterly unsuited and irresponsible was not something anyone should have considered.
Had Gove or Farage being leading the Leave campaign in 2016 not Boris then it would likely have been Remain 52% Leave 48% not the reverse.
Had Boris not been Tory leader in 2019 but May still or Hunt the redwall would not have fallen and the Tories would not have got the majority needed to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and get Brexit done in the first place
Too many counterfactuals in 2019. A leader other than Boris probably couldn't have tricked enough people into believing a terrible deal that created a border within the UK was a good deal that didn't create a border in the UK, but they could probably have agreed a rather more unifying Brexit deal reflecting the closeness of the referendum result and then won support for it. We'll never know on that one, but what seems pretty clear is that there's a lot of people who weren't going to vote for Corbyn regardless of the Tory leader.
There's a case to be made that Boris stopped the conservative party completely destroying itself in 2019, but only by purging it of many of its previous qualities, and possibly storing up a lot more damage for 2022-24.
A more May like Deal by say Hunt would have seen the Brexit Party get more votes in the redwall and stand candidates in all Tory held seats, so likely still no majority
Just logged into new Octopus Energy account (only went live shortly before Christmas, automatic transfer from bankrupt Avro) to find an apparent debt balance of ~£1k. Bit of a shocker, some mistake, Shirley? Looking into it, it was based on wild estimated readings (actual readings were not requested) which suggested we'd used 4.7MWh of electricity since October and a less eye-watering but still high 300 gas units (are they still cubic feet? cubic metres?). So I added our actual readings (~700kWh of electricity) and 150 gas units which it accepted quite happily.
But it might be worth anyone of a nervous disposition having a wee dram before logging in to Octopus and perhaps mention to any elderly relatives who might get a bit of a shock, too.
We will presumably be much closer to even once the new bill comes out - I'm expecting we might have to up payments given our prices are substantially higher than our old fixed deal.
How did you log in? I'm ex Avro, like you. It doesn't like my email address.
The masterstroke to make a Tory majority more likely at the next election is to get rid of the Scottish MPs before then. That way the Tories lose 6 MPs but the Opposition lose 45.
Could Rees Mogg be laying the groundwork for a Unilateral Declaration of getting rid of Scotland by the Tories?
And if that is the plan, I wonder how and when the only Tory in the village will become fully signed up to that agenda?
On today's poll Starmer would have a majority even in England and Wales so that would be pointless too, it is only the UK result giving a hung parliament. Especially as in the tables now out from last night's Yougov Scotland is now the only UK region other than the South of England where the Conservatives are still ahead of Labour https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/13/voting-intention-con-28-lab-38-11-12-jan
Yes, Scotland is the only region in the UK the Conservatives are still ahead of Labour apart from the South outside London as I said.
Of course if Starmer does win most seats UK wide as this poll suggests, even if the SNP won every seat in Scotland Starmer could still ignore them as PM and just focus on Gordon Brown's grand devomax commission
You’re assuming that Starmer is a huge Franco fan like you.
Incidentally, SLab are 5 points ahead of the SCons in the latest proper Scottish VI poll. But you already know that and persist with your daftness. Good boy!
The masterstroke to make a Tory majority more likely at the next election is to get rid of the Scottish MPs before then. That way the Tories lose 6 MPs but the Opposition lose 45.
Could Rees Mogg be laying the groundwork for a Unilateral Declaration of getting rid of Scotland by the Tories?
And if that is the plan, I wonder how and when the only Tory in the village will become fully signed up to that agenda?
On today's poll Starmer would have a majority even in England and Wales so that would be pointless too, it is only the UK result giving a hung parliament. Especially as in the tables now out from last night's Yougov Scotland is now the only UK region other than the South of England where the Conservatives are still ahead of Labour https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/13/voting-intention-con-28-lab-38-11-12-jan
Yes, Scotland is the only region in the UK the Conservatives are still ahead of Labour apart from the South outside London as I said.
Of course if Starmer does win most seats UK wide as this poll suggests, even if the SNP won every seat in Scotland Starmer could still ignore them as PM and just focus on Gordon Brown's grand devomax commission
You and JRM are simply insulting, not only to Scots conservatives, but many of us find this Little Englander attitude distasteful and just plain wrong
The masterstroke to make a Tory majority more likely at the next election is to get rid of the Scottish MPs before then. That way the Tories lose 6 MPs but the Opposition lose 45.
Could Rees Mogg be laying the groundwork for a Unilateral Declaration of getting rid of Scotland by the Tories?
And if that is the plan, I wonder how and when the only Tory in the village will become fully signed up to that agenda?
On today's poll Starmer would have a majority even in England and Wales so that would be pointless too, it is only the UK result giving a hung parliament. Especially as in the tables now out from last night's Yougov Scotland is now the only UK region other than the South of England where the Conservatives are still ahead of Labour https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/01/13/voting-intention-con-28-lab-38-11-12-jan
Yes, Scotland is the only region in the UK the Conservatives are still ahead of Labour apart from the South outside London as I said.
Of course if Starmer does win most seats UK wide as this poll suggests, even if the SNP won every seat in Scotland Starmer could still ignore them as PM and just focus on Gordon Brown's grand devomax commission
You’re assuming that Starmer is a huge Franco fan like you.
Incidentally, SLab are 5 points ahead of the SCons in the latest proper Scottish VI poll. But you already know that and persist with your daftness. Good boy!
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Interesting ; the China story seems to have already been reported by the Times last year - except that time it was about her standing outside the door of No.10. It looks like a re-leak of information which has already been out there for some time, with beautifully useful timing.
...
I don't think Cummings would want the McCarthy-style anti-Corbyn coverage the Sun ( and to a lesser extent Mail ) are suddenly coming up with, though. It looks more damaging for Labour. Large donatons, Corbyn and Livingstone, reds under the bed, etc.
Not to wreck your conspiracy it is all some sort of diversion tactic to knock Party-gate off the headlines, but this has come about because The Lord Speaker today has emailed everybody after MI5 briefed him that this individual is another spy operating in and around Westminster. The Lord Speaker is of course John McFall, a former Labour minister.
I still find it rather odd, considering this is apparently the third time it's already been in the public domain. By accident or some unclear form of design, it's nevertheless a blessed minor relief for the government.
In this case I think it is just a coincidence. Also, there is a difference between newspaper speculation and MI5 saying 100% SPY. I highly doubt MI5 and John McFall has colluded to try and get Boris off the headlines for a few hours.
With my in-person meeting at Guildford cancelled because someone decided to end their life in front of a train at Raynes Park (and one can only feel sympathy for the family and friends of the person concerned) I thought I'd pop on to see how the Johnson farrago was playing out and it now seems we've turned our attention to the erstwhile Leader of the House (and a waste of space if there ever was one) one Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg.
However, I'm not going to talk about him.
I noted this morning some were claiming on here the 28% vote share for the Conservatives would still leave the party with 220 seats - the echo of the infamous "we have won no seats but a great victory" resonates.
That of course assumes good old UNS but as 1997 showed if the electorate is in the mood to give the party of Government a good kicking, swings well above the UNS can be expected especially in marginal seats and that can be combined with our other old friend, tactical voting, which can be used with impunity for the party more likely to defeat any Conservative candidate.
I crunched the 2019 numbers and put a little extra swing in some of the marginals and allowed for tactical voting and I came up with Labour 342, Conservative 181, SNP 55 and LD 45 under the current boundaries so a Labour majority of 32 which shows just how much Labour has to do to win after the massive defeat of barely two years ago.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
And bugger the electorate. Doesn't sound very honourable to me.
Jacob Rees Mogg is the absolute worst of them. A desperately mediocre man whose contrived, cut glass, accent and privileged birth have bought him position and power that his abilities do not get close to justifying. He is the English disease in its purest human form.
And so hard to avoid too. Where's this Cancel Culture when you really need it? Nowhere to be seen.
JRM is, of course, a sad example of downward social mobility which can overtake even the most exalted families. His father was a distinguished journalist and editor who rose to the top of his profession through ability alone, and is best remembered for a Times editorial condemning the imprisonment of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for drug possession.
Butterfly on a wheel! Great phrase and hats off to the Daddy Mogg if he coined it.
All his son has coined is coin.
Alexander Pope, apparently. Doubtless WRM was familiar with his oeuvre, much as Harold Macmillan enjoyed nothing better after lunch than to curl up with a Trollope. (Old TW3 joke. You have to imagine David Frost's smirky delivery.)
The best line from Pope was his suggestion for Newton's epitaph.
NATURE and Nature’s laws lay hid in Night: God said, Let NEWTON be! and all was Light.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Interesting ; the China story seems to have already been reported by the Times last year - except that time it was about her standing outside the door of No.10. It looks like a re-leak of information which has already been out there for some time, with beautifully useful timing.
...
I don't think Cummings would want the McCarthy-style anti-Corbyn coverage the Sun ( and to a lesser extent Mail ) are suddenly coming up with, though. It looks more damaging for Labour. Large donatons, Corbyn and Livingstone, reds under the bed, etc.
Not to wreck your conspiracy it is all some sort of diversion tactic to knock Party-gate off the headlines, but this has come about because The Lord Speaker today has emailed everybody after MI5 briefed him that this individual is another spy operating in and around Westminster. The Lord Speaker is of course John McFall, a former Labour minister.
I still find it rather odd, considering this is apparently the third time it's already been in the public domain. By accident or some unclear form of design, it's nevertheless a blessed minor relief for the government.
In this case I think it is just a coincidence. Also, there is a difference between newspaper speculation and MI5 saying 100% SPY. I highly doubt MI5 and John McFall has colluded to try and get Boris off the headlines for a few hours.
I think it's unlikely that there is an issue with the timing, but not actually entirely impossible, either. Once the security issue is raised, McFall is obviously under an obligation to pass that on.
Jacob Rees-Mogg calling someone else 'lightweight' is delicious, isn't it?
I can practically hear from my window yells of 'Hey, tha's oor lightweight'. I think in Scotland that will play and play into how little the Conservatives value the Union, when they dismiss even their own man. Maybe I'm a bit too sensitive to this but I think it's a pretty devastating attitude to take. It won't be seen as an attack on Douglas Ross (who is not personally super popular), but an attack on Scottish influence within the Union.
Time and time again, the second biggest (estimates vary) threat to the Union is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Their understanding of power is so, so narrow that they seem to believe that power insulates them from any responsibility when it should be precisely the opposite. They remind me of small town American cops, thinking because they have power, because their jobs maybe difficult, that they can act how they want. I mean even the fucking Lion King addressed this. Everyone remembers Simba singing 'I just can't wait to be King', but the entire rest of the film, from Mufasa explaining how there's more to being a king than doing what you want, to Scar fucking up the Pride Lands, to Simba finally understanding, is about how a ruler has responsibility for the people they rule.
Interesting perspective. HYUFD is also taking very much that [edit] same viewpoint as Mr R-M - and he is our resident Tory official (if at a low level).
Thank you. I was actually quite shocked watching BBC Breakfast this morning to hear JRM saying words that reminded me precisely of HYUFD. No disrespect to HYUFD, but it did give me a sense of foreboding about the path the Conservative Party is on.
As an ex-Constituency executive member of the Conservative Party (no longer even a member), I must correct the previous poster about HYUFD's party status. I do this hesitantly because though I believe some of his posts a little silly, I suspect he is a decent person and not always deserving of the regular kickings he gets on here. Fundamentally HYUFD carries no weight in the CP as he has stated he is a member of a Town Council (equivalent of a Parish Council) and he is a BRANCH Chairman. Almost any member can become a branch chairman. The Party is always gagging for them. It is essentially a very localised fundraiser It really holds no status in practice whatsoever. If he becomes a Constituency Party Chairman that would be a very different matter indeed.
It's less of a question of HYUFD's status in the Conservative Party for me. I wouldn't be concerned overmuch with the views of a Conservative Councillor or branch chairman or constituency party chairman. It's more like if JRM, on newsnight, had said 'the workers must rise up and seize the means of production.' It's not that I think Karl Marx is in an influential position within the party but I would be concerned about the state of the mind of the party if they started to espouse those views.
I mean Douglas Ross being a lightweight is a widespread view across Scotland, but I think it will be read that Douglas Ross, as leader of the Scottish Conservatives is irrelevant to the Conservatives at Westminster (despite being an MP like any other). That in turn will be read as the Conservative Party thinking that Scotland is irrelevant. HYUFD is not notable enough to cause that, but JRM is.
Begs the question why FUDHY is on here 24/7 throwing punches in the air. He just looks weird.
Ho hum. That’s the internet for you. In the old days he’d have just mumbled a bit while doing the gardening.
JRM is the dead cat. The stuffed, mouldy lion in Kinloch Castle.
Johnson disappears for a week with COVID. Mogg makes the same catastrophic mistake twice in a row, escalating it - "lightweight" - on the second row when the reaction wasn't strong enough.
Scot Tories come out of this better off. Possible that Ross anticipated this? Wonder what they discussed on that call.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Very few of the deaths are from Omicron, just with it. The ICUs in Hampshire hospitals have very few "just with Covid" patients now as people just don't get that ill with just Omicron.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
I suppose Ross may count it as an electoral plus? - fearlessly independent, defies impudent English pseudo-aristos, etc.
Doesn't seem very plausible. Whatever benefit from that outweighed by needing to work with those so dismissive of him. Rees-Mogg speaks with the voice of the Cabinet unless he repudiates his comments.
As it amounts to Scotland my primary concern is total number of unionists rather than what rosette those unionists wear, but contempt toward the primary unionist force at present seems unlikely to assist.
JRM is the dead cat. The stuffed, mouldy lion in Kinloch Castle.
Johnson disappears for a week with COVID. Mogg makes the same catastrophic mistake twice in a row, escalating it - "lightweight" - on the second row when the reaction wasn't strong enough.
Scot Tories come out of this better off. Possible that Ross anticipated this? Wonder what they discussed on that call.
JRM is the dead cat. The stuffed, mouldy lion in Kinloch Castle.
Johnson disappears for a week with COVID. Mogg makes the same catastrophic mistake twice in a row, escalating it - "lightweight" - on the second row when the reaction wasn't strong enough.
Scot Tories come out of this better off. Possible that Ross anticipated this? Wonder what they discussed on that call.
Not sure that the SCUP does come out better off. They're supposed to be Unionists. Which means pointing to R-M and saying "Here is one of your Imperial Overlords. Pardon me a moment while i get down and lie across this dog turd so he can walk over me."
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
Just logged into new Octopus Energy account (only went live shortly before Christmas, automatic transfer from bankrupt Avro) to find an apparent debt balance of ~£1k. Bit of a shocker, some mistake, Shirley? Looking into it, it was based on wild estimated readings (actual readings were not requested) which suggested we'd used 4.7MWh of electricity since October and a less eye-watering but still high 300 gas units (are they still cubic feet? cubic metres?). So I added our actual readings (~700kWh of electricity) and 150 gas units which it accepted quite happily.
But it might be worth anyone of a nervous disposition having a wee dram before logging in to Octopus and perhaps mention to any elderly relatives who might get a bit of a shock, too.
We will presumably be much closer to even once the new bill comes out - I'm expecting we might have to up payments given our prices are substantially higher than our old fixed deal.
How did you log in? I'm ex Avro, like you. It doesn't like my email address.
Good question. Looking back through emails, I just had requests to log into my account - we were with Octopus back in 2018 and they seem to have matched up the account details, same email and address, so I guess not that hard. I have an email from doing a password reset, but they don't seem to have asked me to make a new account.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Very few of the deaths are from Omicron, just with it. The ICUs in Hampshire hospitals have very few "just with Covid" patients now as people just don't get that ill with just Omicron.
I hope you can back up that first statement. Because you might get some incoming at any time .....
Mr. kinabalu, Corbyn was only on the shortlist because Labour MPs put him there.
They deserve the blame just as much as the PCP for Johnson.
Objectively false assertion. A small number putting him on the ballot to include the 'left' in the contest - not in a million years expecting him to be competitive - is not of the same order of culpability as the majority picking him and sending him to the members as preferred choice and hot favourite.
Sort of. They were stupid for risking an outcome that they did not want, and which they knew the public would not want, but it is true they did not recommend him. The Tory MPs making him the preferred choice was because of the, correct, assumption the public would want him him too, at least in the short term. So they were less stupid since they expected him to win (unlike those with Corbyn), but were more culpable since they accepted the potential risks.
A precise and flawless summary. Nobody does it better.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
But where does being rude to Douglas Ross fit into that explanation. Ross is a Tory and has Tory reasons for saying what he did. And a Tory timetable. Mayday Mayday!
Just logged into new Octopus Energy account (only went live shortly before Christmas, automatic transfer from bankrupt Avro) to find an apparent debt balance of ~£1k. Bit of a shocker, some mistake, Shirley? Looking into it, it was based on wild estimated readings (actual readings were not requested) which suggested we'd used 4.7MWh of electricity since October and a less eye-watering but still high 300 gas units (are they still cubic feet? cubic metres?). So I added our actual readings (~700kWh of electricity) and 150 gas units which it accepted quite happily.
But it might be worth anyone of a nervous disposition having a wee dram before logging in to Octopus and perhaps mention to any elderly relatives who might get a bit of a shock, too.
We will presumably be much closer to even once the new bill comes out - I'm expecting we might have to up payments given our prices are substantially higher than our old fixed deal.
How did you log in? I'm ex Avro, like you. It doesn't like my email address.
Good question. Looking back through emails, I just had requests to log into my account - we were with Octopus back in 2018 and they seem to have matched up the account details, same email and address, so I guess not that hard. I have an email from doing a password reset, but they don't seem to have asked me to make a new account.
When you discovered the £1000 deficit was that via the Avro website or the Octopus website?
Jacob Rees Mogg is the absolute worst of them. A desperately mediocre man whose contrived, cut glass, accent and privileged birth have bought him position and power that his abilities do not get close to justifying. He is the English disease in its purest human form.
And so hard to avoid too. Where's this Cancel Culture when you really need it? Nowhere to be seen.
JRM is, of course, a sad example of downward social mobility which can overtake even the most exalted families. His father was a distinguished journalist and editor who rose to the top of his profession through ability alone, and is best remembered for a Times editorial condemning the imprisonment of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for drug possession.
Butterfly on a wheel! Great phrase and hats off to the Daddy Mogg if he coined it.
All his son has coined is coin.
Pope, though père evidently had better taste in thieving for his style than fils.
Ah so he nicked it. My own 'pere' had - and I mean at the time in the 60s - a visceral dislike for William Rees-Mogg. He used to virtually spit his name. I didn't know why, never quizzed him on it, but it's a genuine childhood memory. Odd what sticks in your mind.
Jacob Rees Mogg is the absolute worst of them. A desperately mediocre man whose contrived, cut glass, accent and privileged birth have bought him position and power that his abilities do not get close to justifying. He is the English disease in its purest human form.
And so hard to avoid too. Where's this Cancel Culture when you really need it? Nowhere to be seen.
JRM is, of course, a sad example of downward social mobility which can overtake even the most exalted families. His father was a distinguished journalist and editor who rose to the top of his profession through ability alone, and is best remembered for a Times editorial condemning the imprisonment of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for drug possession.
Butterfly on a wheel! Great phrase and hats off to the Daddy Mogg if he coined it.
All his son has coined is coin.
Alexander Pope, apparently. Doubtless WRM was familiar with his oeuvre, much as Harold Macmillan enjoyed nothing better after lunch than to curl up with a Trollope. (Old TW3 joke. You have to imagine David Frost's smirky delivery.)
Let Sporus tremble—"What? that thing of silk, Sporus, that mere white curd of ass's milk? Satire or sense, alas! can Sporus feel? Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?" Yet let me flap this bug with gilded wings, This painted child of dirt that stinks and stings; Whose buzz the witty and the fair annoys, Yet wit ne'er tastes, and beauty ne'r enjoys, So well-bred spaniels civilly delight In mumbling of the game they dare not bite. Eternal smiles his emptiness betray, As shallow streams run dimpling all the way. Whether in florid impotence he speaks, And, as the prompter breathes, the puppet squeaks; Or at the ear of Eve, familiar toad, Half froth, half venom, spits himself abroad, In puns, or politics, or tales, or lies, Or spite, or smut, or rhymes, or blasphemies. His wit all see-saw, between that and this , Now high, now low, now Master up, now Miss, And he himself one vile antithesis. Amphibious thing! that acting either part, The trifling head, or the corrupted heart, Fop at the toilet, flatt'rer at the board, Now trips a lady, and now struts a lord. Eve's tempter thus the rabbins have express'd, A cherub's face, a reptile all the rest; Beauty that shocks you, parts that none will trust, Wit that can creep, and pride that licks the dust.
Jacob Rees Mogg is the absolute worst of them. A desperately mediocre man whose contrived, cut glass, accent and privileged birth have bought him position and power that his abilities do not get close to justifying. He is the English disease in its purest human form.
And so hard to avoid too. Where's this Cancel Culture when you really need it? Nowhere to be seen.
JRM is, of course, a sad example of downward social mobility which can overtake even the most exalted families. His father was a distinguished journalist and editor who rose to the top of his profession through ability alone, and is best remembered for a Times editorial condemning the imprisonment of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for drug possession.
Butterfly on a wheel! Great phrase and hats off to the Daddy Mogg if he coined it.
All his son has coined is coin.
Alexander Pope, apparently. Doubtless WRM was familiar with his oeuvre, much as Harold Macmillan enjoyed nothing better after lunch than to curl up with a Trollope. (Old TW3 joke. You have to imagine David Frost's smirky delivery.)
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
In 2019, he persuaded them to suspend their disbelief that a buffoon can lead. Au contraire, Johnson told the voters, a buffoon can amuse as well as lead. Voters can have both.
It was another iteration of cakeism, Johnson’s founding personal and political philosophy. Having your cake and eating it has also been his lodestar to voters, from Brexit to his big spending, and has brought him immense success. Ignore the doom-mongers because this optimist is telling you don’t have to chose, you can have it all. And so can I, from women to power.
Where the PM has come so badly a cropper with Partygate is that he has allowed his cakeism to get between him and the voters. The man who persuaded them to elect him to take on the duplicitous elite now says do as I say, not as I do. In that, he appears a duplicitous elitist himself.
But one strong supporter and confidante of the PM told me yesterday that even up to the start of this week he thought Johnson would fight the next general election as Tory leader. As of last night, he no longer thinks he will. He is simply too badly damaged. Too irreversibly holed beneath the waterline by multiple torpedoes of inconsistency and chaos.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
Yes, there is not much incentive to get tested without symptoms unless you for some reason fancy a week or so detention at Sir Chris Whitty's pleasure.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
"Tory reasons" can lose the 's', I think. If they ditch him it'll be because he's gone from seat protector to seat threat.
- Cases down. UK R drops below 1.0, everywhere except the South East, which is just above. Overall, UK R for cases is below 1. This can't be explained just by the LFT changes, since the trend started earlier. I find this one fascinating... Bad JCVI, very bad....
- Admissions. R drops 1 - MV beds - continues a slow decline, throughout the country. - Deaths are going up. As expected.
Public Health Scotland (PHS) is currently updating the Scottish COVID-19 national case definition to reflect the revised Scottish Government testing strategy. PHS has released initial experimental statistics for headline cases which include both lateral flow and PCR testing.
However, while these statistics are presented as experimental, UK dashboard figures will still only include cases identified by PCR testing in Scotland.
Over the coming weeks, UK dashboard reporting for Scotland will move completely to the new definition.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
The problem is that the negotiations could not be "conducted constructively". And that's because the SNP can only win a referendum by persuading the majority of Scots that they will be financially better off - which, of course, they certainly won't be as we will find out in short order. Who'll get the blame? Well, we all know the answer to that. The negotiations will almost certainly be bloody and bitter.
NE is consistently one of the hardest hit areas throughout this pandemic. If I remember correctly when we were messing with local lockdowns and tier restrictions etc, didn't part of the NE basically stay under restrictions the entire time they were a thing.
"Our weekly #COVID19 surveillance report also shows that case rates are highest in the North East and lowest in the South West."
September 18 2020 we went under them. Slightly later than some boroughs of GM. But we went in them as a region. No nipping a couple of miles down the road.
The tiers were a big mistake. Understandable in their intentions, but did more than anything else to foster grievance and gloom. Having a shit time is actually quite bearable if you know everyone's having a shit time; it's much worse if you feel arbitrarily singled out.
And they were a mistake in their practical effect, as well - on the island we were suddenly swamped with day and longer trippers from Portsmouth and Southampton; if I remember correctly, we went from Tier One to Tier Four, progressively, within a month.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
I'll be very surprised if Plan B is extended past 26 January.
Is there provision to bin it before that? It is quite costly in business terms (the lack of in-person meetings is problematic, particularly for generating new business).
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Very few of the deaths are from Omicron, just with it. The ICUs in Hampshire hospitals have very few "just with Covid" patients now as people just don't get that ill with just Omicron.
Trying to work out "incidental" deaths - I'm wondering how many people die in hospital every day. They will all have been tested on admission and one fifteenth of them have COVID.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
The most irrelevant detail in this whole mess is what European papers and politicians think of our PM, just as our press's view of Macron would be meaningless.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
It's cos of mobile phones? Or am I thinking of only one LD MP?
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
There's also who has been vaccinated - this was the situation three weeks ago:
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
Max - we've said this till we are blue in the face - the high cases we have had since July from Delta have been doing a job, infecting the refusers etc. Yes omicron shows some ability to reinfect, but there is still huge difference between an immune naive person and someone who has had delta in August/September.
I know some on hear have been against the approach taken in England, but I think we are seeing the evidence right now by comparison with other, more cautious, nations.
I suppose Ross may count it as an electoral plus? - fearlessly independent, defies impudent English pseudo-aristos, etc.
Doesn't seem very plausible. Whatever benefit from that outweighed by needing to work with those so dismissive of him. Rees-Mogg speaks with the voice of the Cabinet unless he repudiates his comments.
On he other hand, Ross may anticipate that it won't be outweighed, because the need to work with Johnson loyalists like Rees-Mogg will last only as long as Johnson remains as PM. If Ross is seen as having had a hand in the imminent demise of a PM reviled in Scotland, I don't think that that would do the Scottish Conservatives any harm at all in Scotland.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Very few of the deaths are from Omicron, just with it. The ICUs in Hampshire hospitals have very few "just with Covid" patients now as people just don't get that ill with just Omicron.
I hope you can back up that first statement. Because you might get some incoming at any time .....
The MV beds figures show it. If people are very ill/dying from Covid they do not tend to stay on normal wards.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Very few of the deaths are from Omicron, just with it. The ICUs in Hampshire hospitals have very few "just with Covid" patients now as people just don't get that ill with just Omicron.
Trying to work out "incidental" deaths - I'm wondering how many people die in hospital every day. They will all have been tested on admission and one fifteenth of them have COVID.
Someone posted their analysis of this a google spreadsheet - the effect wasn't that big.
Mr. kinabalu, Corbyn was only on the shortlist because Labour MPs put him there.
They deserve the blame just as much as the PCP for Johnson.
Objectively false assertion. A small number putting him on the ballot to include the 'left' in the contest - not in a million years expecting him to be competitive - is not of the same order of culpability as the majority picking him and sending him to the members as preferred choice and hot favourite.
Sort of. They were stupid for risking an outcome that they did not want, and which they knew the public would not want, but it is true they did not recommend him. The Tory MPs making him the preferred choice was because of the, correct, assumption the public would want him him too, at least in the short term. So they were less stupid since they expected him to win (unlike those with Corbyn), but were more culpable since they accepted the potential risks.
A precise and flawless summary. Nobody does it better.
Really?!
Totally. You are a parser extraordinaire and usually pull it off. Main blind spot was not seeing my "Brand Boris" point but we cleared that up with a fruitful exchange in which the nuance was fully explored.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
The 100 Tories are the real opposition at the moment. Mark Harper and Steve Baker prevented an unnecessary lockdown along with 98 other Tories willing to stand up to the dodgy science. Fraser Nelson deserves major recognition as well after exposing the scientists being instructed to ignore real world data from SA and vaccine efficacy in favour of worse modelled inputs in order to get outputs for "decision making".
The scientists and the DoH agenda pushers were very badly wrong, the best case scenario had a bottom end range of 600 deaths per day and top end of 6000 for England, symptomatic cases are already falling quite rapidly and that number looks like it will peak at about 200 including the *with* COVID deaths.
The worst part of it is that had they managed to hoodwink the nation into another lockdown the current drop in cases would be used as evidence that lockdowns work, it's why so many were desperate to get one implemented.
Fun fact. The other other day, Aerojet were asked how long it would take to make new RS-25 engines (updated versions of the Space Shuttle main engines, used on the new SLS launcher)
They said they'd cut the time *per engine* down to less than *3 years*.
How much lead time does that involve for components, or is it all just assembly?
(But yes, it is a long time. Then again, the SSMEs are beasts.)
Order to arrival of shiny at your door...
SpaceX are making Raptor engines at faster than 1 every 2 days. A rate which Musk considers dangerously slow.
Comparable thrust, and the Raptor is much more advanced - FFSC and crazy chamber pressure - though the R-25 does have higher ISP, since it is HydroLox.
Yep, SpaceX are doing a good job making the machine to make the machine.
I am slightly concerned that they're having to move onto a Raptor 2 design, though.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
There's also who has been vaccinated - this was the situation three weeks ago:
Yup - the very high take up of boosters in the vulnerable groups lead to this
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
It's cos of mobile phones? Or am I thinking of only one LD MP?
What - they have a principled objection to mobile phone tracking? (I mean, I do too, but it would be nice to hear I had some political allies). Which MP were you thinking of?
I’ve been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation.
The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patience while Sue Gray carries out her enquiry.
Truss latest
The Prime Minister is delivering for Britain - from Brexit to the booster programme to economic growth. I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward.
Labour actually has a stick or twist decision on Brexit at the moment. There is enough bad going on with supply chains, customs paperwork, actual queues on the M20 (finally) and of course the silly shenanigans around article 16 that they could make a noise about it. That's both an opportunity and a risk:
The government's stock is at such a low ebb that Brexit could become collateral damage. If ever there were a time to get hearts and minds to turn against it - or at least the chaotic version we've ended up with - it would be now. Particularly anything focusing on lies and broken promises - they could find a receptive audience.
But talking Brexit might well remind some people why they voted for Boris in 2019. It could make it harder for them to move on from the battles of the last few years and hesitate to vote Labour.
On balance I expect Keir will keep his distance from Brexit for now. Perhaps UKG will undermine its own case further without help. In anti-tory alliance terms it might, though, be a good opportunity for the Lib Dems to press the case a bit.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
I think we were right to be initially cautious especially seeing some of the very early data from South Africa and elsewhere and especially in terms of transmission where it seems to be in a league of its own.
What has "saved us" has been the vaccination programme and its largely successful roll out. We just got enough people boosted in time to prevent Omicron causing more problems with the elderly population. It may be mild in and of itself but for those with existing serious health conditions it's still a risk.
I hope we're not going to get into the usual old cycle of wanting the head of every scientist or expert who advocated a more cautious line. There's an odd parallel with the current Boris Johnson fiasco - there's almost a febrile desire to "punish" those who don't follow the rules, those who give wrong advice, those who took a different interpretation of the data etc,
I'm happy to be seeing the light at the end of this nightmare - I'm not really in the mood to apportion either credit or blame but I imagine plenty of others are or will be.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
It's cos of mobile phones? Or am I thinking of only one LD MP?
What - they have a principled objection to mobile phone tracking? (I mean, I do too, but it would be nice to hear I had some political allies). Which MP were you thinking of?
Oh, vaccination is all to do with injecting chips, burn the 5G towers and all that. Wasn't paying that much attention but IIRC a LD MP got a bit embroiled in that, according to some.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
The worst part of it is that had they managed to hoodwink the nation into another lockdown the current drop in cases would be used as evidence that lockdowns work, it's why so many were desperate to get one implemented.
Wasn't there a remark to the effect that "if we don't get a lockdown very soon, cases will have started declining anyway"?
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
Max - we've said this till we are blue in the face - the high cases we have had since July from Delta have been doing a job, infecting the refusers etc. Yes omicron shows some ability to reinfect, but there is still huge difference between an immune naive person and someone who has had delta in August/September.
I know some on hear have been against the approach taken in England, but I think we are seeing the evidence right now by comparison with other, more cautious, nations.
Indeed. It was quite galling for a few months to see ordinarily smart people literally do everything possible to ignore the basic biology of the immune system so that they could spout a bunch of nonsense about the UK getting it wrong and plague islands etc...
The idea that Delta would give no immunity to Omicron was simply incorrect yet we saw it said here multiple times and all over the internet because antibody binding efficiency was reduced and everyone who only had one prior infection or two doses would have no protection from severe symptoms. It went against decades of observed clinical and scientific evidence about how viral immunity works.
"The UK data watchdog has warned Downing Street staff that deleting messages related to lockdown parties could be a criminal offence.
The Information Commissioner’s Office issued a statement following a report by the Independent that No 10 staff were advised to “clean up” their phones by removing information that could suggest lockdown parties were held in Downing Street.
An ICO spokesperson said it was an “important principle of government transparency and accountability that official records are kept of key actions and decisions.” The spokesperson added:
Relevant information that exists in the private correspondence channels of public authorities should be available and included in responses to information requests received. Erasing, destroying or concealing information within scope of a Freedom of Information request, with the intention of preventing its disclosure is a criminal offence under section 77 of the Freedom of Information Act."
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
I think we were right to be initially cautious especially seeing some of the very early data from South Africa and elsewhere and especially in terms of transmission where it seems to be in a league of its own.
What has "saved us" has been the vaccination programme and its largely successful roll out. We just got enough people boosted in time to prevent Omicron causing more problems with the elderly population. It may be mild in and of itself but for those with existing serious health conditions it's still a risk.
I hope we're not going to get into the usual old cycle of wanting the head of every scientist or expert who advocated a more cautious line. There's an odd parallel with the current Boris Johnson fiasco - there's almost a febrile desire to "punish" those who don't follow the rules, those who give wrong advice, those who took a different interpretation of the data etc,
I'm happy to be seeing the light at the end of this nightmare - I'm not really in the mood to apportion either credit or blame but I imagine plenty of others are or will be.
Well let's not call for the head of every expert who called for caution. But at the same time, let's question why it took 20 months of the pandemic until we started questioning the modelling. And until we started balancing the positives and negatives of restrictions. And let's also ask why all advice leant one way.
I do sympathise with those making difficult decisions that they will have to take responsibility for - politicians and high profile advisers. But some of the advice being given has been transparently crap.
Fun fact. The other other day, Aerojet were asked how long it would take to make new RS-25 engines (updated versions of the Space Shuttle main engines, used on the new SLS launcher)
They said they'd cut the time *per engine* down to less than *3 years*.
How much lead time does that involve for components, or is it all just assembly?
(But yes, it is a long time. Then again, the SSMEs are beasts.)
Order to arrival of shiny at your door...
SpaceX are making Raptor engines at faster than 1 every 2 days. A rate which Musk considers dangerously slow.
Comparable thrust, and the Raptor is much more advanced - FFSC and crazy chamber pressure - though the R-25 does have higher ISP, since it is HydroLox.
Yep, SpaceX are doing a good job making the machine to make the machine.
I am slightly concerned that they're having to move onto a Raptor 2 design, though.
Fast iteration is their style. Merlin went through a lot of versions until the current one.
As is messed up versioning.
Which version of F9 are we on now? 9.1.1.1 Max, Full Thrust, Full Fat or something?
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
I wonder what he thinks of the Welsh?
Most voters living in Wales voted for Brexit
"Most."
Leave the European Union Gadael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd 854,572 52.53% Remain a member of the European Union Aros yn aelod o'r Undeb Ewropeaidd 772,347 47.47%
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
Comments
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
SpaceX are making Raptor engines at faster than 1 every 2 days. A rate which Musk considers dangerously slow.
Comparable thrust, and the Raptor is much more advanced - FFSC and crazy chamber pressure - though the R-25 does have higher ISP, since it is HydroLox.
Incidentally, SLab are 5 points ahead of the SCons in the latest proper Scottish VI poll. But you already know that and persist with your daftness. Good boy!
I have already spoken to my mp about this
It is shocking
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
With my in-person meeting at Guildford cancelled because someone decided to end their life in front of a train at Raynes Park (and one can only feel sympathy for the family and friends of the person concerned) I thought I'd pop on to see how the Johnson farrago was playing out and it now seems we've turned our attention to the erstwhile Leader of the House (and a waste of space if there ever was one) one Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg.
However, I'm not going to talk about him.
I noted this morning some were claiming on here the 28% vote share for the Conservatives would still leave the party with 220 seats - the echo of the infamous "we have won no seats but a great victory" resonates.
That of course assumes good old UNS but as 1997 showed if the electorate is in the mood to give the party of Government a good kicking, swings well above the UNS can be expected especially in marginal seats and that can be combined with our other old friend, tactical voting, which can be used with impunity for the party more likely to defeat any Conservative candidate.
I crunched the 2019 numbers and put a little extra swing in some of the marginals and allowed for tactical voting and I came up with Labour 342, Conservative 181, SNP 55 and LD 45 under the current boundaries so a Labour majority of 32 which shows just how much Labour has to do to win after the massive defeat of barely two years ago.
Doesn't sound very honourable to me.
https://capx.co/a-british-baby-boom-we-should-aim-for-a-population-of-100m-in-the-next-two-decades/
Tom Leveson Gower
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/01/02/maybe-baby-population-politics-part-1/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/01/02/maybe-baby-population-politics-part-2/
Analysis from @LOS_Fisher
Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/13/watch-runners-riders-could-replace-boris-johnson/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1481660454263001091/video/1
NATURE and Nature’s laws lay hid in Night:
God said, Let NEWTON be! and all was Light.
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Ho hum. That’s the internet for you. In the old days he’d have just mumbled a bit while doing the gardening.
Johnson disappears for a week with COVID. Mogg makes the same catastrophic mistake twice in a row, escalating it - "lightweight" - on the second row when the reaction wasn't strong enough.
Scot Tories come out of this better off. Possible that Ross anticipated this? Wonder what they discussed on that call.
As it amounts to Scotland my primary concern is total number of unionists rather than what rosette those unionists wear, but contempt toward the primary unionist force at present seems unlikely to assist.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
Sporus, that mere white curd of ass's milk?
Satire or sense, alas! can Sporus feel?
Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?"
Yet let me flap this bug with gilded wings,
This painted child of dirt that stinks and stings;
Whose buzz the witty and the fair annoys,
Yet wit ne'er tastes, and beauty ne'r enjoys,
So well-bred spaniels civilly delight
In mumbling of the game they dare not bite.
Eternal smiles his emptiness betray,
As shallow streams run dimpling all the way.
Whether in florid impotence he speaks,
And, as the prompter breathes, the puppet squeaks;
Or at the ear of Eve, familiar toad,
Half froth, half venom, spits himself abroad,
In puns, or politics, or tales, or lies,
Or spite, or smut, or rhymes, or blasphemies.
His wit all see-saw, between that and this ,
Now high, now low, now Master up, now Miss,
And he himself one vile antithesis.
Amphibious thing! that acting either part,
The trifling head, or the corrupted heart,
Fop at the toilet, flatt'rer at the board,
Now trips a lady, and now struts a lord.
Eve's tempter thus the rabbins have express'd,
A cherub's face, a reptile all the rest;
Beauty that shocks you, parts that none will trust,
Wit that can creep, and pride that licks the dust.
An attack on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hervey,_2nd_Baron_Hervey
Step forward, Sir Ed.
It was another iteration of cakeism, Johnson’s founding personal and political philosophy. Having your cake and eating it has also been his lodestar to voters, from Brexit to his big spending, and has brought him immense success. Ignore the doom-mongers because this optimist is telling you don’t have to chose, you can have it all. And so can I, from women to power.
Where the PM has come so badly a cropper with Partygate is that he has allowed his cakeism to get between him and the voters. The man who persuaded them to elect him to take on the duplicitous elite now says do as I say, not as I do. In that, he appears a duplicitous elitist himself.
But one strong supporter and confidante of the PM told me yesterday that even up to the start of this week he thought Johnson would fight the next general election as Tory leader. As of last night, he no longer thinks he will. He is simply too badly damaged. Too irreversibly holed beneath the waterline by multiple torpedoes of inconsistency and chaos.
- Cases down. UK R drops below 1.0, everywhere except the South East, which is just above. Overall, UK R for cases is below 1. This can't be explained just by the LFT changes, since the trend started earlier. I find this one fascinating... Bad JCVI, very bad....
- Admissions. R drops 1
- MV beds - continues a slow decline, throughout the country.
- Deaths are going up. As expected.
EDIT: For @Alistair
Public Health Scotland (PHS) is currently updating the Scottish COVID-19 national case definition to reflect the revised Scottish Government testing strategy. PHS has released initial experimental statistics for headline cases which include both lateral flow and PCR testing.
However, while these statistics are presented as experimental, UK dashboard figures will still only include cases identified by PCR testing in Scotland.
Over the coming weeks, UK dashboard reporting for Scotland will move completely to the new definition.
‘Vain, fickle, hypocritical’: how Europe sees Boris Johnson after partygate https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/13/vain-fickle-hypocritical-how-europe-sees-boris-johnson-after-partygate
I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or
- Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
I know some on hear have been against the approach taken in England, but I think we are seeing the evidence right now by comparison with other, more cautious, nations.
The scientists and the DoH agenda pushers were very badly wrong, the best case scenario had a bottom end range of 600 deaths per day and top end of 6000 for England, symptomatic cases are already falling quite rapidly and that number looks like it will peak at about 200 including the *with* COVID deaths.
The worst part of it is that had they managed to hoodwink the nation into another lockdown the current drop in cases would be used as evidence that lockdowns work, it's why so many were desperate to get one implemented.
I am slightly concerned that they're having to move onto a Raptor 2 design, though.
Doh
I’ve been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation.
The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patience while Sue Gray carries out her enquiry.
Truss latest
The Prime Minister is delivering for Britain - from Brexit to the booster programme to economic growth. I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward.
The government's stock is at such a low ebb that Brexit could become collateral damage. If ever there were a time to get hearts and minds to turn against it - or at least the chaotic version we've ended up with - it would be now. Particularly anything focusing on lies and broken promises - they could find a receptive audience.
But talking Brexit might well remind some people why they voted for Boris in 2019. It could make it harder for them to move on from the battles of the last few years and hesitate to vote Labour.
On balance I expect Keir will keep his distance from Brexit for now. Perhaps UKG will undermine its own case further without help. In anti-tory alliance terms it might, though, be a good opportunity for the Lib Dems to press the case a bit.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
I wonder what he thinks of the Welsh?
What has "saved us" has been the vaccination programme and its largely successful roll out. We just got enough people boosted in time to prevent Omicron causing more problems with the elderly population. It may be mild in and of itself but for those with existing serious health conditions it's still a risk.
I hope we're not going to get into the usual old cycle of wanting the head of every scientist or expert who advocated a more cautious line. There's an odd parallel with the current Boris Johnson fiasco - there's almost a febrile desire to "punish" those who don't follow the rules, those who give wrong advice, those who took a different interpretation of the data etc,
I'm happy to be seeing the light at the end of this nightmare - I'm not really in the mood to apportion either credit or blame but I imagine plenty of others are or will be.
Intderesting analysis of the Tories' Scottish row by a journo who is not especially sympathetic to the idea of independence.
Mogg: “The Secretary of State for Wales is called Simon Hart.”
The leader of the Welsh Conservatives is Andrew RT Davies.
The other half are still desperate that Gray will come up with something firm enough to keep him in position and make the whole fuss go away.
This should go well.
The idea that Delta would give no immunity to Omicron was simply incorrect yet we saw it said here multiple times and all over the internet because antibody binding efficiency was reduced and everyone who only had one prior infection or two doses would have no protection from severe symptoms. It went against decades of observed clinical and scientific evidence about how viral immunity works.
The Information Commissioner’s Office issued a statement following a report by the Independent that No 10 staff were advised to “clean up” their phones by removing information that could suggest lockdown parties were held in Downing Street.
An ICO spokesperson said it was an “important principle of government transparency and accountability that official records are kept of key actions and decisions.” The spokesperson added:
Relevant information that exists in the private correspondence channels of public authorities should be available and included in responses to information requests received. Erasing, destroying or concealing information within scope of a Freedom of Information request, with the intention of preventing its disclosure is a criminal offence under section 77 of the Freedom of Information Act."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jan/13/boris-johnson-coronavirus-covid-uk-news-live-pm-tory-leadership-crisis-sue-gray
But at the same time, let's question why it took 20 months of the pandemic until we started questioning the modelling. And until we started balancing the positives and negatives of restrictions. And let's also ask why all advice leant one way.
I do sympathise with those making difficult decisions that they will have to take responsibility for - politicians and high profile advisers.
But some of the advice being given has been transparently crap.
As is messed up versioning.
Which version of F9 are we on now? 9.1.1.1 Max, Full Thrust, Full Fat or something?
Leave the European Union
Gadael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd 854,572 52.53%
Remain a member of the European Union
Aros yn aelod o'r Undeb Ewropeaidd 772,347 47.47%
https://www.libdemvoice.org/campaigning-on-brexit-members-views-69609.html