If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
There's also who has been vaccinated - this was the situation three weeks ago:
I'd actually say it's the other way around for cases and mild symptoms which may be registered in the testing system. Our under 40s are far less vaccinated than the French under 40s yet we're registering far, far fewer symptomatic Omicron cases among those groups than in France. The difference is that we've had 7-9m Delta cases in those groups over the last few months while France has had just a couple of million. Two doses doesn't seem to give any protection from mild symptoms at all but still decent protection from severe symptoms and France ramped up their booster programme for under 40s later than we did.
I'd be really interested to know how many of their unvaccinated have had infections, I think that and two dose immunity is why their case numbers are extremely high.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Delta was very much on the rise going into December. Fortunately Omicron came to sweep it away.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
I wonder what he thinks of the Welsh?
Most voters living in Wales voted for Brexit
So the two nations that came out as "Remain" should be treated as irrelevant?
Have you at least ever heard of democracy? I know you have no clue how it works, but it would be a start if you were at least aware of the concept.
The masterstroke to make a Tory majority more likely at the next election is to get rid of the Scottish MPs before then. That way the Tories lose 6 MPs but the Opposition lose 45.
Could Rees Mogg be laying the groundwork for a Unilateral Declaration of getting rid of Scotland by the Tories?
And if that is the plan, I wonder how and when the only Tory in the village will become fully signed up to that agenda?
I'm not sure that would be a masterstroke: Scottish Conservatives would be essentially forced to vote libdem.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
The increase in deaths matches when the increase in cases moved into the older groups...
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
It's cos of mobile phones? Or am I thinking of only one LD MP?
What - they have a principled objection to mobile phone tracking? (I mean, I do too, but it would be nice to hear I had some political allies). Which MP were you thinking of?
Oh, vaccination is all to do with injecting chips, burn the 5G towers and all that. Wasn't paying that much attention but IIRC a LD MP got a bit embroiled in that, according to some.
My understanding was that Lib Dem opposition has mostly been centred around Vax passports which is why they voted against Plan B
Jacob Rees Mogg is the absolute worst of them. A desperately mediocre man whose contrived, cut glass, accent and privileged birth have bought him position and power that his abilities do not get close to justifying. He is the English disease in its purest human form.
And so hard to avoid too. Where's this Cancel Culture when you really need it? Nowhere to be seen.
JRM is, of course, a sad example of downward social mobility which can overtake even the most exalted families. His father was a distinguished journalist and editor who rose to the top of his profession through ability alone, and is best remembered for a Times editorial condemning the imprisonment of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for drug possession.
Butterfly on a wheel! Great phrase and hats off to the Daddy Mogg if he coined it.
All his son has coined is coin.
Alexander Pope, apparently. Doubtless WRM was familiar with his oeuvre, much as Harold Macmillan enjoyed nothing better after lunch than to curl up with a Trollope. (Old TW3 joke. You have to imagine David Frost's smirky delivery.)
Yes, I think I get that one. I'm deep in The Crown atm and its portrayal of Supermac isn't quite what I expected. Not much 'effortless charm" or "imperturbability" there. More like a cold wet rag.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
I think we were right to be initially cautious especially seeing some of the very early data from South Africa and elsewhere and especially in terms of transmission where it seems to be in a league of its own.
What has "saved us" has been the vaccination programme and its largely successful roll out. We just got enough people boosted in time to prevent Omicron causing more problems with the elderly population. It may be mild in and of itself but for those with existing serious health conditions it's still a risk.
I hope we're not going to get into the usual old cycle of wanting the head of every scientist or expert who advocated a more cautious line. There's an odd parallel with the current Boris Johnson fiasco - there's almost a febrile desire to "punish" those who don't follow the rules, those who give wrong advice, those who took a different interpretation of the data etc,
I'm happy to be seeing the light at the end of this nightmare - I'm not really in the mood to apportion either credit or blame but I imagine plenty of others are or will be.
No reckoning, Stodge. I think some introspection and a proper feedback loop would be a start. There's been far too many scientists predicting doom all the time and then when it doesn't come to pass they simply shrug it off and then move on to their next predictions of doom without wondering why their predictions were so shit.
Some of those exponential case graphs to infinity were laughable and many on here said so at the time but serious scientists were presenting them as credible as if it was really going to be possible for virus cases to double from 1m per day to 2m per day in two days, yet we had predictions of 150k in hospital and up to 10k per day being hospitalised on the back of these spherical cow models.
The masterstroke to make a Tory majority more likely at the next election is to get rid of the Scottish MPs before then. That way the Tories lose 6 MPs but the Opposition lose 45.
Could Rees Mogg be laying the groundwork for a Unilateral Declaration of getting rid of Scotland by the Tories?
And if that is the plan, I wonder how and when the only Tory in the village will become fully signed up to that agenda?
I'm not sure that would be a masterstroke: Scottish Conservatives would be essentially forced to vote libdem.
Who cares, as a certain person would say? They wouldn't be Westminster MPs any more. Or am I missing something?
The most irrelevant detail in this whole mess is what European papers and politicians think of our PM, just as our press's view of Macron would be meaningless.
What an arrogant post. Showing just the sort of imperious attitude that produces caricatures like Rees Mogg and Johnson in the first place.
We live in an interconnected world and our ex partners are our nearest and dearest.
I’ve been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation.
The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patience while Sue Gray carries out her enquiry.
Truss latest
The Prime Minister is delivering for Britain - from Brexit to the booster programme to economic growth. I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward.
From those statements it is clearly the Chancellor who will be more likely to wield the assassin's knife when Gray's report lands. Sunak is in more of a hurry, sensing that his star is waning with Tory members. Truss can afford to play a longer game and if Sunak acts first she may be the ultimate beneficiary.
The most irrelevant detail in this whole mess is what European papers and politicians think of our PM
A word from our Global Britain Spokesman there...
I think you have missed the point, which is rather clear in how you have chosen to not include the part which shows this is not a Boris/UK point, but a general point about commentary on leaders by external media/politicians.
If you had a PM you liked you would not find it persuasive that media or leaders somewhere else disliked him. The key is whether they want to do business and work with the UK, not whether they think Boris is a sh*t. Lots of places are led by sh*ts and still get along just fine. Boris is a factor there because of his impact on policies, but not as much as he, or you, will think.
When foreign media lay into a national leader somewhere there are always people in that country who lap it up in a bit of a desperate fashion, enjoying the repetition of their own views and suddenly deciding now, as opposed to when they did not agree, that that shows their insight and how impactful it is.
And in any case the main point of my comment was that Boris's flaws and cock ups are far far more relevant than what is said about him overseas. Us lambasting Trump didn't make a damn bit of difference to needing to deal with the USA whilst he was there, and to americans the more relevant point was how bad a job they thought he was doing.
One sentence summary: Yes, it'd be nice if everyone liked a country and it's leader, but international cooperation is built on firmer foundations than that so don't blow a load over horrible headlines and snarky comments.
The most irrelevant detail in this whole mess is what European papers and politicians think of our PM, just as our press's view of Macron would be meaningless.
What an arrogant post. Showing just the sort of imperious attitude that produces caricatures like Rees Mogg and Johnson in the first place.
We live in an interconnected world and our ex partners are our nearest and dearest.
You've also missed the point completely. It is not in the least bit an imperious attitude - as was perfectly clear the point is Boris's flaws are far more relevant than commentary about his flaws from overseas. And the interconnectedness of the world is precisely my point - that's why absolute sh*ts still have to be dealt with by those partners because they cannot just ignore the sh*ts. It's because I am not arrogant about anyone's place in the world that I recoginse it'd be nice if we got along, but that all nations muddle through and make do with the partner they have.
I am not surprised at the misinterpretation, but it is disappointing all the same that you two couldn't take the blinkers off for 5 seconds.
Boris is a terrible PM in my view, but people still cannot help but aid him by overreacting.
Intderesting analysis of the Tories' Scottish row by a journo who is not especially sympathetic to the idea of independence.
Even if there's something in this theory that this was conscious, rather than just Moggite stream-of-consciousness, it's still tactics over strategy, which exemplifies this administration to its core. Any short term advantage in the political game playing out in Parliament and the media is paid for by fuelling the longer term narrative that Tory England doesn't give a XXXX about Scotland.
The masterstroke to make a Tory majority more likely at the next election is to get rid of the Scottish MPs before then. That way the Tories lose 6 MPs but the Opposition lose 45.
Could Rees Mogg be laying the groundwork for a Unilateral Declaration of getting rid of Scotland by the Tories?
And if that is the plan, I wonder how and when the only Tory in the village will become fully signed up to that agenda?
I'm not sure that would be a masterstroke: Scottish Conservatives would be essentially forced to vote libdem.
It is also wrong, Starmer would have a majority in England and Wales on the latest polls but not in the UK.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
"Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed." - Are you sure? I thought Plan B was the first time.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
I wonder what he thinks of the Welsh?
Most voters living in Wales voted for Brexit
So the two nations that came out as "Remain" should be treated as irrelevant?
Have you at least ever heard of democracy? I know you have no clue how it works, but it would be a start if you were at least aware of the concept.
If they were treated as irrelevant we would have gone to No Deal with the EU and imposed a hard border in Ireland not the Irish Sea
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Yes but you are a LD as I assume is your wife, 52% of Surrey voted Remain in 2016.
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
Jonathan Powell @jnpowell1 · 3h 5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
Intderesting analysis of the Tories' Scottish row by a journo who is not especially sympathetic to the idea of independence.
Even if there's something in this theory that this was conscious, rather than just Moggite stream-of-consciousness, it's still tactics over strategy, which exemplifies this administration to its core. Any short term advantage in the political game playing out in Parliament and the media is paid for by fuelling the longer term narrative that Tory England doesn't give a XXXX about Scotland.
Yup, they did the same with the NI rise, used parliamentary game playing to force the vote through without a proper process or time to have a consultation on what is a huge new tax for working people, so they won the day and got the measures through but at the expense of becoming the party that shits on the workers to feather the nests of retirees.
It all stems from Boris wanting to stay on as PM for just one more day every morning, do whatever it takes to get to tomorrow without being deposed.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Yes but you are a LD as I assume is your wife, 52% of Surrey voted Remain in 2016.
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
You say "voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks"
Funny, I don't remember voting Yes for that in 2014. Or indeed any other referendum.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
I’ve been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation.
The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patience while Sue Gray carries out her enquiry.
Truss latest
The Prime Minister is delivering for Britain - from Brexit to the booster programme to economic growth. I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward.
From those statements it is clearly the Chancellor who will be more likely to wield the assassin's knife when Gray's report lands. Sunak is in more of a hurry, sensing that his star is waning with Tory members. Truss can afford to play a longer game and if Sunak acts first she may be the ultimate beneficiary.
Sunak's window is closing quickly. If he hangs on to May he could have missed the boat. If he acts quickly on the next fiasco, and resigns, he will be in possession of the moral compass and pole position.
By my reckoning that will be around 22.00 on Saturday when the Sunday papers are released.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
I wonder what he thinks of the Welsh?
Most voters living in Wales voted for Brexit
Some of us have also voted Plaid Cymru.
Not me but that purest of pure conservatives has, isn't that so @HYUFD
It's come up before, but I really do find it remarkable that the idea that this is a very interconnected world and nations take long term views on their relationships with others, and while sentimental about some do not allow that to affect their general diplomatic efforts, and so crappy leaders have a more limited impact on those relations than is generally thought to be the case, is an arrogant, imperious one.
I've always thought it was more considerate of other nations by presuming their long term goals are not driven by petty reaction to our domestic politics, and that they don't think our long term goals are driven by petty reactions to their domestic politics.
And that accordingly how much foreign press like or dislike a leader is not very relevant. Should France replace its president if world media dislikes Macron, even if he was super popular at home? Should Merkel have stood down years ago if, hypothetically, global press and some other leaders said she was awful? Someone might be the right choice for their nation even if they were disliked abroad.
I very much do reject the idea such an attitude rejects the importance of partners. It's actually about the opposite, that partners can be so important even a bad leader cannot sink its importance.
Jonathan Powell @jnpowell1 · 3h 5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
Link from a comment on that thread, in depth description of Sue Gray from 2015
She sounds like a less user friendly Rosa Klebb, and the last person I'd want investigating me. Effectively did for Fox and Mitchell apparently
It's come up before, but I really do find it remarkable that the idea that this is a very interconnected world and nations take long term views on their relationships with others, and while sentimental about some do not allow that to affect their general diplomatic efforts, and so crappy leaders have a more limited impact on those relations than is generally thought to be the case, is an arrogant, imperious one.
I don't like JRM, and I don't agree with defending Boris Johnson. And it's obviously not smart to attack a colleague in such terms, but this will not have any impact on anything. Sure, a few of Ross's opponents may use the quote against him come the election, but if you're in the SNP or Labour, do you REALLY want to be putting JRM quotes on your leaflets?
I suspect JRM thinks he could be heading for the backbenches if Boris goes, so it's fine for his to want to shore up the leader. JRM isn't working for the same outcomes as me, but no point in making a Munro out of a Marilyn.
Rees-Mogg isn't really defending Johnson.
He's defending the principle that the tories are in government. And so Johnson can be dismissed for tory reasons and on the tory timetable.
Not for labour reasons and on labour's timetable.
Boris disconnected N Ireland as an inconvenience that would cost him no votes as there are no Tory MPs or candidates in NI.
JRM appears to be telling Scotland that they have been written off politically and they probably have not had the NI treatment as there are a few Tory MPs north of the border.
I wonder what he thinks of the Welsh?
Most voters living in Wales voted for Brexit
So the two nations that came out as "Remain" should be treated as irrelevant?
Have you at least ever heard of democracy? I know you have no clue how it works, but it would be a start if you were at least aware of the concept.
If they were treated as irrelevant we would have gone to No Deal with the EU and imposed a hard border in Ireland not the Irish Sea
Instead of lying on camera that there would be no border in the Irish Sea and then putting one in a few weeks later?
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
Because of vaccine passports, I think. They voted against that. As indeed would I have done. 1) it was for show and all hassle no benefit. 2) it ruined my 100% record on Not Happening Events not happening.
Sky reporting conservative mps will not convict before hearing the evidence, but it seems ominous for Boris
That also lets them see what BoJo does to manage the energy price issue - big in the Red Wall - and whether he is going to p*ss away the political capital by trying to be a big boned hero, then reverse ferret and spend the money anyway, losing on both halves of the transaction.
It's come up before, but I really do find it remarkable that the idea that this is a very interconnected world and nations take long term views on their relationships with others, and while sentimental about some do not allow that to affect their general diplomatic efforts, and so crappy leaders have a more limited impact on those relations than is generally thought to be the case, is an arrogant, imperious one.
Why did we not get the same US deal as the EU?
Because Biden doesn't trust BoZo to keep it.
Why didn't we get our ball back when we went round to ask for it?
Because we spend our spare time chucking dog shit over the garden fence for our kids' amusement.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
The problem is that the negotiations could not be "conducted constructively". And that's because the SNP can only win a referendum by persuading the majority of Scots that they will be financially better off - which, of course, they certainly won't be as we will find out in short order. Who'll get the blame? Well, we all know the answer to that. The negotiations will almost certainly be bloody and bitter.
Presumably at independence, the new Scottish government will repay the Darien money. If we assume a reasonable 10% annual interest charge over the last 315 years, that means around £200bn will be due to HMG. And then around another £40bn for the RBS bailout.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
The 100 Tories are the real opposition at the moment. Mark Harper and Steve Baker prevented an unnecessary lockdown along with 98 other Tories willing to stand up to the dodgy science. Fraser Nelson deserves major recognition as well after exposing the scientists being instructed to ignore real world data from SA and vaccine efficacy in favour of worse modelled inputs in order to get outputs for "decision making".
The scientists and the DoH agenda pushers were very badly wrong, the best case scenario had a bottom end range of 600 deaths per day and top end of 6000 for England, symptomatic cases are already falling quite rapidly and that number looks like it will peak at about 200 including the *with* COVID deaths.
The worst part of it is that had they managed to hoodwink the nation into another lockdown the current drop in cases would be used as evidence that lockdowns work, it's why so many were desperate to get one implemented.
I'm not saying you are wrong about the last part – covid has done all sorts of weird things to people's mental health. But who in their right mind would want to try to 'prove' that the lockdown was responsible for a fall in prevalence when it was not? I find even contemplating such a mentality to be difficult.
The Prime Minister and leaders of the Devolved Governments have reached a landmark agreement setting out how we will continue to work closely together to face off shared challenges, seize opportunities ahead and deliver for people across the UK.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Yes but you are a LD as I assume is your wife, 52% of Surrey voted Remain in 2016.
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
Last time I looked LDs were unionist so I'm not sure of your point. I however do not follow the party line religiously and have no strong views on the issue.
My wife would be furious that you assumed she was a LD. She has a mind of her own you know. I actually allow her to do things like have a bank account and vote. Sadly your assumption would be wrong. She is not a LD. She has shown an interest in the Monster Raving Loony Party in the past though, who some might suggest is not a lot different.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
The worst part of it is that had they managed to hoodwink the nation into another lockdown the current drop in cases would be used as evidence that lockdowns work, it's why so many were desperate to get one implemented.
Wasn't there a remark to the effect that "if we don't get a lockdown very soon, cases will have started declining anyway"?
Actually, I do remember something along those lines now you mention it.
It's come up before, but I really do find it remarkable that the idea that this is a very interconnected world and nations take long term views on their relationships with others, and while sentimental about some do not allow that to affect their general diplomatic efforts, and so crappy leaders have a more limited impact on those relations than is generally thought to be the case, is an arrogant, imperious one.
Why did we not get the same US deal as the EU?
Because Biden doesn't trust BoZo to keep it.
It's not without some consequences. I can believe that played a part. But deep partnerships survive crappy leaders, sometimes despite the best efforts of those crappy leaders.
Regardless, you seem to missed the critical point that the reason foreign views on Boris's crappiness are the most irrelevant detail is not because foreigners don't matter (which is how you seem to have interpreted it) but because the details of his crappiness are much much more relevant than getting a pleasing feeling from a headline in le monde or whatever about his crappiness.
After all, you've shared that that has been the view of Boris from our partners for a long time. It didn't matter, because he was not falling apart domestically. His cock ups matter.
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Ruth polled fantastically well with the vital 'old mates in the media with whom I use to work' demographic.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
The problem is that the negotiations could not be "conducted constructively". And that's because the SNP can only win a referendum by persuading the majority of Scots that they will be financially better off - which, of course, they certainly won't be as we will find out in short order. Who'll get the blame? Well, we all know the answer to that. The negotiations will almost certainly be bloody and bitter.
Presumably at independence, the new Scottish government will repay the Darien money. If we assume a reasonable 10% annual interest charge over the last 315 years, that means around £200bn will be due to HMG. And then around another £40bn for the RBS bailout.
Wrong way round. The Scottish public funds bought into the English public debt at the time; it was the aristos who were bribed by English money (so private hands).
The Prime Minister and leaders of the Devolved Governments have reached a landmark agreement setting out how we will continue to work closely together to face off shared challenges, seize opportunities ahead and deliver for people across the UK.
That's nice, though it's almost depressing that agreement between nations currently already within a shared nation seem to struggle to reach such agreement to the point it requires a 'landmark' label.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Yes but you are a LD as I assume is your wife, 52% of Surrey voted Remain in 2016.
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
For the Earl of Inverness that will hurt harder than being tied to the mast and given 20 lashes.
Massive drop in cases for England, almost 36% WoW by reporting date and that's with a fair bit of reporting lag catch up as well, we should see what the specimen date drops look like in a few days. I feel confident in saying that Omicron was not really ever going to trouble us.
I've been wondering why France in particular has seen its case rate surging, their testing programme is similar to ours (mainly testing the symptomatic) but they are clocking in 2-3x the cases as the UK per day. It's been so many that they're on track for more cases than the UK in total which I didn't think would happen given the huge number we had over the summer. I think the UK natural immunity wall has made a big difference here is that those people who recovered from delta over the summer are now not getting symptoms from Omicron so aren't bothering to get tested.
I think we were right to be initially cautious especially seeing some of the very early data from South Africa and elsewhere and especially in terms of transmission where it seems to be in a league of its own.
What has "saved us" has been the vaccination programme and its largely successful roll out. We just got enough people boosted in time to prevent Omicron causing more problems with the elderly population. It may be mild in and of itself but for those with existing serious health conditions it's still a risk.
I hope we're not going to get into the usual old cycle of wanting the head of every scientist or expert who advocated a more cautious line. There's an odd parallel with the current Boris Johnson fiasco - there's almost a febrile desire to "punish" those who don't follow the rules, those who give wrong advice, those who took a different interpretation of the data etc,
I'm happy to be seeing the light at the end of this nightmare - I'm not really in the mood to apportion either credit or blame but I imagine plenty of others are or will be.
Well let's not call for the head of every expert who called for caution. But at the same time, let's question why it took 20 months of the pandemic until we started questioning the modelling. And until we started balancing the positives and negatives of restrictions. And let's also ask why all advice leant one way.
I do sympathise with those making difficult decisions that they will have to take responsibility for - politicians and high profile advisers. But some of the advice being given has been transparently crap.
Indeed, I find extremely odd the idea that we shouldn't audit the accuracy of such potentially life-changing pronouncements. The latest models and rhetoric, in particular, from the government scientists would have seen us in lockdown now, in all likelihood, had they had their way.
That is an extreme and hugely damaging outcome that we managed to avoid only because of a rebellion in parliament from a ragtag alliance of awkward-squad Tories, the Liberal party and a few Labour contrarians.
I suspect @Stodge and @NickPalmer (who liked his post) might not be so airy about it had the forecasting error fallen the other way.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Mechanical ventilation beds in England down again.
It is all pointing towards an outcome low end / lower than the best case scenario from the models for continuing Plan B.
Indeed. It looks like the Liberals were right to oppose Plan B. It's probably had only a marginal effect at best at the cost of considerable socioeconomic damage.
Step forward, Sir Ed.
I was delighted when I heard that LibDems had opposed it - but I never discovered the reason. I hope that it was for principled civil liberty reasons but fear it was that Plan B wasn't hard enough or just politically expedient.
The Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed. I'd be interested to know why too. I'd like to think it was on principles of liberty. They haven't made much noise about it either way.
"Lib Dems have quietly voted against pretty much every restriction the government has proposed." - Are you sure? I thought Plan B was the first time.
I'm not 100% sure - but I do seem to remember them voting against emergency powers (which is as much of a vote as MPs got for most of the pandemic). I think one or two other things too. I got the impression that they were at best neutral on lockdown, but very much opposed to taking things out of the control of elected members. So half a foot in my camp, at least.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
For the Earl of Inverness that will hurt harder than being tied to the mast and given 20 lashes.
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Or more than 5-10% were actually infected. Or the transmission rate in hospitals is higher than in other settings. Or... (tons of factors)
I am energised and excited that HYUFD is supporting the campaign to remove Conservative councillors here in Scotland. I would like to invite him to come leaflet with me in Fraserburgh to unseat Aberdeenshire Council leader Andy Kille, who's leadership he describes as "nothing to save".
I think that "Nothing to Save" is a fine election slogan when you run a council.
Aberdeenshire is NOC not Conservative majority controlled
He didn't say it was. He referred to him as council leader. No idea if that is accurate, but he never said it was majority controlled.
And my original comment was the Conservatives control no council in Scotland, which is correct. Not a single council in Scotland has a Conservative majority of its councillors
“ the Conservatives control no council in Scotland”
Have you informed Douglas Ross?
Could call Andy Kille in the Council Leader's office at the council office (which interestingly is in Aberdeen city - another council's area...) and tell him that although he runs the council he really doesn't and there is nothing to save.
I thought JRM was spectacularly tone-deaf last night. But compared to HY...
Epping Forest was NOC in the early 2000s and late 1990s, we do not consider we controlled the council then only now as we have a Conservative majority.
If SCons consider NOC a Tory majority no wonder they fail to win more
Uninformed comment. In Scotland we have multi-member wards with transferable votes. In practice, it makes it almost impossible for any party to win a majority on a Scottish Council. If FPTP had applied, as in England, the Scots Tories would certainly have won a very handsome majority on Aberdeenshire Council in 2017 when the council was last contested.
In FPTP terms Scottish Conservatives also won only 6 MPs in 2019 while UK Tories won 365 MPs under Boris. They are only a small wing of the party and largely irrelevant to the party and Union unless they manage to deny the SNP a majority at Holyrood, which they have still failed to do.
They do not dictate who leads the UK party
You’re going to incur the wrath of Ruth. Better put your helmet on.
Ruth was also leader of the SCons in 2015 when the Tories got 1 MP, they still now have 6 with Boris as UK PM.
So Ruth should stop whinging about Boris, he did better for the SCons than Cameron did at Westminster
They got 13 MPs in 2017 after Ruth had had time to turn the party round. Since devolution she is one of only two Scottish politicians with the dynamism and personality to make the political weather. The other was Alex Salmond.
She took over in 2011!
She lead the party to worst ever local council elections, worst ever Euro elections and then worst by vote share General Election result (only missing absolute worst ever by a few hundred votes in DCT for Mundell to cling on).
She only started making progress in 2016 when she adopted her defeated leadership opponent Murdo Fraser's idea to get rid of the Conservative branding in Scotland(combined with Labour shooting themselves in the head during the IndyRef campaign).
The Ruth Was Fantastic myth is one of the biggest oddities of the last decade.
Without her in 2017, I don't think that the Tories would have had enough Scottish seats to form a government.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I think she feels fine, and pleased that Douglas Ross managed to consolidate the position by hanging on to 31 MSPs in May. Managing to detoxify the Tory brand in Scotland to the extent she did was a significant achievement, whatever Stuart says.
NEW The Duke of York has been stripped of his military titles and royal patronages by the Queen and will not return to official duties. #PrinceAndrew will no longer use his HRH styling in any capacity. Royal sources say the decisions were discussed among the royal family https://twitter.com/RoyaNikkhah/status/1481674822497316875/photo/1
Also no longer HRH. I guess removing the Dukedom will be the final step, if convicted.
If a PM Starmer was arrogant enough to do a Cameron 2016 and offer a referendum he did not need to offer and was not certain to win and narrowly lost it, he would of course have to resign the next day like Cameron.
The Tories with a new Leader of the Opposition would then make hay on an English Nationalist platform at any weak concessions by the Labour government to Edinburgh in the Scexit negotiations
Why do you always assume in the event of a free and fair vote for independence in Scotland, the mood in England would be angry and nationalist?
You might feel that way - I'd argue many would be indifferent, others might actually wish Scotland well as an independent state and would urge the negotiations to be conducted constructively not antagonistically.
Some might, I suspect most would not. The EU were hardly in a mood to give the UK an easy deal after the Brexit vote were they.
Remember 50% voted for the Tories + UKIP in 2015 UK wide, an even higher 55% voted for the Tories + UKIP in England in 2015, if Scotland voted for independence if Labour were in power, granted an indyref2 and lost it, the Tories would shift to become effectively the English National Party for the time being and there would be plenty of votes in it
I'm not sure you have given a reason why the English would be upset. I'm indifferent. I have yet to meet anyone who cares in leafy Surrey. My wife is Scottish and she doesn't care. Her 3 siblings, none of whom live in Scotland now care either. My personal view is now we have Brexited it makes it more difficult for the Scots to leave but as far as I am concerned it's up to them and not my business.
Yes but you are a LD as I assume is your wife, 52% of Surrey voted Remain in 2016.
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
HYUFD voted Remain in 2016.
I accepted the Brexit result however, unlike Dominic Grieve or Anna Soubry or Sam Gyimah, who indeed became a LD
I see in Wales there are currently 30 people in ICU with covid. So the number in ICU for covid is probably about 20. Still it is deemed necessary to retain the rule of 6. The health minister claimed that whereas in London about 10% of people are sick with covid, in Wales it is only 6%. I'd love to know where those figures are from because they sound high. I say this as someone who is currently isolating after a positive LFT with what feels like a cold.
MI5 has issued a rare warning to MPs that a Chinese agent has infiltrated Parliament to interfere in UK politics. An alert from the security service said Christine Ching Kui Lee "established links" for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with current and aspiring MPs. She then gave donations to politicians, with funding coming from foreign nationals in China and Hong Kong. It comes after a "significant, long-running" investigation by MI5, Whitehall sources told the BBC. One of the MPs funded by Ms Lee was Labour's Barry Gardiner, who received over £420,000 from her in five years."
Big fall in cases, even allowing for Scottish LFTs.
Hospital admissions + number flat.
Deaths remain a concern but should follow suit.
Case rate amongst 90+ in England peaked on Jan 4th, so I'd expect deaths by specimen to peak around 18th. There's the eternal backfilling too so reported deaths could stay high for a while.
The recent rise in deaths does look too rapid and lacking in medical logic. A number of people have pointed out that prevalence rates in the community mean that the incidental "with Covid" rates would be expected to be high. On a population wide basis if 5-10% of people had it at any one time then 5-10% of total deaths (of a few thousand) would be around 50-100 per day I think.
But that still doesn't explain 300+. Either it's true Omicron mortality, but the ICU stats give the lie to that, or it's:
- Christmas backfilling (but that would imply Delta deaths in December were higher than we thought, which in hindsight is bad news), or - Prevalence in hospitals and care homes significantly higher than the UK average. Possible, especially in hospitals - though no hard evidence of that
Where does this alleged 300+ number come from?
I have yet to see it on the Coronavirus Dashboard.
I’ve been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation.
The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patience while Sue Gray carries out her enquiry.
Truss latest
The Prime Minister is delivering for Britain - from Brexit to the booster programme to economic growth. I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward.
From those statements it is clearly the Chancellor who will be more likely to wield the assassin's knife when Gray's report lands. Sunak is in more of a hurry, sensing that his star is waning with Tory members. Truss can afford to play a longer game and if Sunak acts first she may be the ultimate beneficiary.
Sunak's window is closing quickly. If he hangs on to May he could have missed the boat. If he acts quickly on the next fiasco, and resigns, he will be in possession of the moral compass and pole position.
By my reckoning that will be around 22.00 on Saturday when the Sunday papers are released.
Why does he need to do anything? Just wait for Graham Brady to count to 54.
I’ve been on a visit all day today continuing work on our #PlanForJobs as well as meeting MPs to discuss the energy situation.
The PM was right to apologise and I support his request for patience while Sue Gray carries out her enquiry.
Truss latest
The Prime Minister is delivering for Britain - from Brexit to the booster programme to economic growth. I stand behind the Prime Minister 100% as he takes our country forward.
From those statements it is clearly the Chancellor who will be more likely to wield the assassin's knife when Gray's report lands. Sunak is in more of a hurry, sensing that his star is waning with Tory members. Truss can afford to play a longer game and if Sunak acts first she may be the ultimate beneficiary.
Sunak's window is closing quickly. If he hangs on to May he could have missed the boat. If he acts quickly on the next fiasco, and resigns, he will be in possession of the moral compass and pole position.
By my reckoning that will be around 22.00 on Saturday when the Sunday papers are released.
I don't think so.
Do you seriously expect BJ to stop doing faceplants?
Comments
I'd be really interested to know how many of their unvaccinated have had infections, I think that and two dose immunity is why their case numbers are extremely high.
Have you at least ever heard of democracy? I know you have no clue how it works, but it would be a start if you were at least aware of the concept.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1481668136181055493
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1481372677432557571
Then look at the profile of who is dying...
Some of those exponential case graphs to infinity were laughable and many on here said so at the time but serious scientists were presenting them as credible as if it was really going to be possible for virus cases to double from 1m per day to 2m per day in two days, yet we had predictions of 150k in hospital and up to 10k per day being hospitalised on the back of these spherical cow models.
We live in an interconnected world and our ex partners are our nearest and dearest.
If you had a PM you liked you would not find it persuasive that media or leaders somewhere else disliked him. The key is whether they want to do business and work with the UK, not whether they think Boris is a sh*t. Lots of places are led by sh*ts and still get along just fine. Boris is a factor there because of his impact on policies, but not as much as he, or you, will think.
When foreign media lay into a national leader somewhere there are always people in that country who lap it up in a bit of a desperate fashion, enjoying the repetition of their own views and suddenly deciding now, as opposed to when they did not agree, that that shows their insight and how impactful it is.
And in any case the main point of my comment was that Boris's flaws and cock ups are far far more relevant than what is said about him overseas. Us lambasting Trump didn't make a damn bit of difference to needing to deal with the USA whilst he was there, and to americans the more relevant point was how bad a job they thought he was doing.
One sentence summary: Yes, it'd be nice if everyone liked a country and it's leader, but international cooperation is built on firmer foundations than that so don't blow a load over horrible headlines and snarky comments. You've also missed the point completely. It is not in the least bit an imperious attitude - as was perfectly clear the point is Boris's flaws are far more relevant than commentary about his flaws from overseas. And the interconnectedness of the world is precisely my point - that's why absolute sh*ts still have to be dealt with by those partners because they cannot just ignore the sh*ts. It's because I am not arrogant about anyone's place in the world that I recoginse it'd be nice if we got along, but that all nations muddle through and make do with the partner they have.
I am not surprised at the misinterpretation, but it is disappointing all the same that you two couldn't take the blinkers off for 5 seconds.
Boris is a terrible PM in my view, but people still cannot help but aid him by overreacting.
➡️Some came hours after new restrictions came into force
📸UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor via AP https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1481670314350292997/photo/1
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
I am talking about the 53% of English voters who voted Leave in 2016 and the 55% of English voters who voted Tory or UKIP in 2015 who would vote for a Tory English National Party if Scotland was allowed an indyref2 by a PM Starmer and voted Yes to push for as hard a line as possible with Edinburgh in the Scexit talks
So it will be about the culture. How the culture went wrong. No one individual, but a system etc etc.
Pass me the sick bucket.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481671039264378881
Rishi Sunak gets a net negative favourability rating for the first time
https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1481566832519786498
@jnpowell1
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3h
5. Lastly I was in No 10 for ten years and we didn’t have as many staff parties in a decade as they appear to have had in a few months. When on earth did they find time to do any work?
It all stems from Boris wanting to stay on as PM for just one more day every morning, do whatever it takes to get to tomorrow without being deposed.
Funny, I don't remember voting Yes for that in 2014. Or indeed any other referendum.
By my reckoning that will be around 22.00 on Saturday when the Sunday papers are released.
I've always thought it was more considerate of other nations by presuming their long term goals are not driven by petty reaction to our domestic politics, and that they don't think our long term goals are driven by petty reactions to their domestic politics.
And that accordingly how much foreign press like or dislike a leader is not very relevant. Should France replace its president if world media dislikes Macron, even if he was super popular at home? Should Merkel have stood down years ago if, hypothetically, global press and some other leaders said she was awful? Someone might be the right choice for their nation even if they were disliked abroad.
I very much do reject the idea such an attitude rejects the importance of partners. It's actually about the opposite, that partners can be so important even a bad leader cannot sink its importance.
She sounds like a less user friendly Rosa Klebb, and the last person I'd want investigating me. Effectively did for Fox and Mitchell apparently
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33431580
Because Biden doesn't trust BoZo to keep it.
As he did for the NHS pay rise last year.
Because we spend our spare time chucking dog shit over the garden fence for our kids' amusement.
BoZo still gets to be judge and jury on his own behaviour...
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1481646889468452873?s=20
My wife would be furious that you assumed she was a LD. She has a mind of her own you know. I actually allow her to do things like have a bank account and vote. Sadly your assumption would be wrong. She is not a LD. She has shown an interest in the Monster Raving Loony Party in the past though, who some might suggest is not a lot different.
Absolutely bizarre attitude, if true.
Regardless, you seem to missed the critical point that the reason foreign views on Boris's crappiness are the most irrelevant detail is not because foreigners don't matter (which is how you seem to have interpreted it) but because the details of his crappiness are much much more relevant than getting a pleasing feeling from a headline in le monde or whatever about his crappiness.
After all, you've shared that that has been the view of Boris from our partners for a long time. It didn't matter, because he was not falling apart domestically. His cock ups matter.
Note he is no longer referred to as HRH either, just the Duke of York and confirmed Andrew will do no further public duties as now
https://twitter.com/Maps_US_EU/status/1481627090399088641
Would Exarch play better though, given fewer know its meaning?
HMQ does the best thing for her family.
Who's left to the best thing for the country?
That is an extreme and hugely damaging outcome that we managed to avoid only because of a rebellion in parliament from a ragtag alliance of awkward-squad Tories, the Liberal party and a few Labour contrarians.
I suspect @Stodge and @NickPalmer (who liked his post) might not be so airy about it had the forecasting error fallen the other way.
I wonder how she feels about that now.
I got the impression that they were at best neutral on lockdown, but very much opposed to taking things out of the control of elected members. So half a foot in my camp, at least.
If the Grenadier Guards can give him the boot, why not Invernesians?
Having checked it out, go for it.
HYUFD would have coniptions at such Orthodox heresy tainting the domain of the CofE so worth it for that alone.
This was their resounding verdict: https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1481658685235494920/photo/1
MI5 has issued a rare warning to MPs that a Chinese agent has infiltrated Parliament to interfere in UK politics. An alert from the security service said Christine Ching Kui Lee "established links" for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with current and aspiring MPs. She then gave donations to politicians, with funding coming from foreign nationals in China and Hong Kong. It comes after a "significant, long-running" investigation by MI5, Whitehall sources told the BBC. One of the MPs funded by Ms Lee was Labour's Barry Gardiner, who received over £420,000 from her in five years."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59984380
I would be very concerned if I said anything you agreed with
I have yet to see it on the Coronavirus Dashboard.
Just wait for Graham Brady to count to 54.
With some token man from the Tories.
Do you seriously expect BJ to stop doing faceplants?