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LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Christopher Hope📝
    @christopherhope
    ·
    6m
    NEW Strong rumours in Parliament from two Government sources tonight that Boris Johnson will make some sort of statement tomorrow lunchtime about partygate just before Prime Minister's Questions.

    It worked the last time round so Boris is going to try it again.

    The Speaker should just reject it as it was asked about today..

    Unless the statement is "I resign" how does this help?
    I was at the party, but didn't inhale...
    I was in the Party, and I was the only Real member.

    Which PBer?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    IanB2 said:

    Personally I think he might just do a runner one day.

    No big resignation announcement, no podium moment, no TV interview or PMQs or whatever. Just one day, no-one can find Boris. All the journos, all the cabinet, everyone just going "where's the PM? He's not turned up for the thing and he missed the last thing".

    2 days later and some fax comes in from Outer Mongolia that he's stepped down and X is now in charge. Never to be heard from again.

    Or something.

    cf. Reggie Perrin? They’ll just find some crumpled clothes and underwear overdue for a wash, on the beach?
    It's either that or some sort of Alan Partridge mad drive to Dundee in the middle of the night in his bare feet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    LOL. He was basically selling a bit of extortion by which the government bullies those vaguely involved but with money to cough up £4bn or face punitive taxation. Not a particularly Tory thing to do but highly populist. He’s not to be under estimated.
    It’s been a long time coming a policy on this. How realistic and practical was what he said though? As time is of the essence how quickly can the money go to the people who need it saving them from their stress? Could the government itself not do more in the meantime?
    The problem is that the developers are not at fault either. This cladding met the regulations of the time.

    None of government, leaseholders, freeholders, developers really were to blame, though possibly some of the manufacturers were. In effect Grenfell retrospectively altered building standards.
    Yet we have quite a few people out there in our society in a bit of a worrying spot, needing help now.
    Foxy says developers weren’t to blame. But that depends on how you view responsibility. Relying on what’s strictly legal or doing your DD and only using what you think is good enough.

    Either way, there’s no role for government if not to act as last resort insurer against just such this kind of retrospectively uninsurable event. A total scandal that there are still people unable to sell or even remortgage their flats they bought in good faith. Equally still no proper debate of how far an SPV’s limited liability status should extend in such circumstances or whether the former directors are fair game in future. Probably all makes me sounds a bit corbynite that.
  • TimT said:

    Since it's now the evening, here's an interesting story: A man climbs the highest mountain in Libya, Bikku Bitti, which no-one had climbed before. It takes him three attempts in two years, during one of which he nearly dies. The mountain is on the Libya/Chad border, hundreds of kilometres from the nearest village (and that is in rebel hands). it is very hot and arid, with few oases.

    Guess what he finds at the summit...

    https://www.summitpost.org/ginge-fullen/333351#chapter_1

    - “… which no-one had climbed before.”

    Total bollocks. The summit had a cairn and there were several other cairns around the nearby secondary summit. Who built those? The fairy folk?

    Typical white supremacy tale: no one else has ever been here on a hill in bongo bongo land because you can’t buy a journal of their ascent in the Hampstead branch of WH Smith.
    Clearly some Scots had been there if there were cairns ...
    This is the traditional spoor of the Scotsman.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Huzzah.

    The Great Renewed for Season 3 at Hulu

    https://tvline.com/2022/01/11/the-great-renewed-season-3-hulu/

    Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.

    Where can I find season 2 to start binging it? 🤷‍♀️
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    Maybe a career writing fiction awaits?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    FUDHY told us earlier today that even when Boris goes, the party will be forever his. Like Trump. And Maggie. And Mao. And Stalin.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    it was just wrong on so many levels.
    That is a truly brilliant pun. It has elevated the conversation.
    The Beckhams named their son Brooklyn because that was where he was conceived.
    Makes you think about people called Otis ...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Is Moonrabbit another one of Leon's? Apologies if I'm doing them dirty.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    Maybe a career writing fiction awaits?
    Like he did as Brussels correspondent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Huzzah.

    The Great Renewed for Season 3 at Hulu

    https://tvline.com/2022/01/11/the-great-renewed-season-3-hulu/

    Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.

    Where can I find season 2 to start binging it? 🤷‍♀️
    Amazon Prime, or Apple TV. Quite a few places
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    TimT said:

    Since it's now the evening, here's an interesting story: A man climbs the highest mountain in Libya, Bikku Bitti, which no-one had climbed before. It takes him three attempts in two years, during one of which he nearly dies. The mountain is on the Libya/Chad border, hundreds of kilometres from the nearest village (and that is in rebel hands). it is very hot and arid, with few oases.

    Guess what he finds at the summit...

    https://www.summitpost.org/ginge-fullen/333351#chapter_1

    - “… which no-one had climbed before.”

    Total bollocks. The summit had a cairn and there were several other cairns around the nearby secondary summit. Who built those? The fairy folk?

    Typical white supremacy tale: no one else has ever been here on a hill in bongo bongo land because you can’t buy a journal of their ascent in the Hampstead branch of WH Smith.
    Clearly some Scots had been there if there were cairns ...
    This is the traditional spoor of the Scotsman.


    I could go one of them!

    The wife’s got me on a white month and I’m gasping for a pint already.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    Maybe a career writing fiction awaits?
    Special guest re-appearance on HIGNFY?
  • Huzzah.

    The Great Renewed for Season 3 at Hulu

    https://tvline.com/2022/01/11/the-great-renewed-season-3-hulu/

    Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.

    Where can I find season 2 to start binging it? 🤷‍♀️
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/video/detail/B09MZMWD79/ref=atv_dp_season_select_s2
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Of course, in that event there must be a Prime Minister, so getting Raab to just fill in is a non-starter. Now, does Johnson then have to nominate a successor for the Queen to summon, or is that up to the Cabinet?
    Well, if we imagine Johnson nominating, say, Gavin Williamson to be his successor, then I doubt the Cabinet would be happy to follow him, and his position would be untenable, so in practice I think Johnson would have to get Cabinet to agree to a successor.

    They may agree to Raab - on the proviso he doesn't run in the contest for the leadership - or it might be that they agree Johnson can stay on as a caretaker while they run a quick contest. If the Cabinet were able to agree on a permanent successor, do you think they would have enough weight to force the rest of the Parliamentary Party not to nominate anyone else for the leadership contest, so that the new PM didn't have to face a vote in the membership?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    IanB2 said:

    cf. Reggie Perrin? They’ll just find some crumpled clothes and underwear overdue for a wash, on the beach?

    On Mustique...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    With Eden they did both, of course.

    But it's more likely he would remain the nominal PM even if a deputy was actually looking after things, as in 1923 and 1957 (or indeed, in opposition with Heath and Carr in 1975). Only if a PM died in office - which hasn't happened since 1865 - does a new PM need to be appointed at once.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited January 2022
    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    This is imbecilically dumb

    His memoir will be fought over tooth and nail. I know you have a lunatic hatred of the man, but the fact is he is big box office, worldwide. And he has been UK Prime Minister for two of the biggest events in recent British history, Brexit and Covid, where the first had a global impact and where the second saw Britain play a pivotal global role (from the vaccine success to the lockdown failure)

    And he can write. And he has a gift for personal publicity, like him or not. And he has a "vivid" private history, more than any British PM... ever?

    He will make many millions, for sure

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497



    Obviously i’m not against Northern Accents as I’m intending to be the first Gen Z PM! But Rayner doesn’t convince me in her delivery either to camera or in commons.

    And she needs a hair cut. There’s only two places for hair that long, on someone half her age, or someone in the Victorian Era. At the least she should wear it up not down the front like that.

    Laugh if you want, but if people can’t make the right hair decisions (like I do) how do you trust them with affairs of state?

    What is your view of Boris's hair?
    We have discussed Boris cut, you obviously missed it, I’ll summarise

    I think he was forced into it by increasing baldness meaning days of his trademark winning Love Actually hair are behind him. The new cut isn’t as suited to his face and head as that trademark, someone replying said it made him look more thuggish which summed up very well.

    Your hair is 93.4% of your sexual appeal, regardless the sexuality you feel you are. Also, anyone who has been an MP has been told voters are forming opinion of you less on what you are saying more so on your appearance. So hair loss is difficult for male politicians.

    Which makes Angela’s crimes all the greater. Unless her values are Victorian she shouldn’t have Victorian hair. Since the Victorian era we have had the 60s. No, forget I said that, her bangs are straight out the sixties. She should simply get a lob, if it’s over the eyes and face like mine so much the sexier, as hiding a bit a away for peek a boo adds to the appeal.
    I disagree. I think that hair is only 93.3% of your sexual appeal.
    Well you would! Or Farooq. One or other of you 😆
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    But he's never taken responsibility for anything properly in his life. There's a first time for everything, I suppose, but I still wonder if he might just try and tough it out ond an on, each time battling on until the next time Cummings pulls a rabbit out of the hat.
    Can there possibly be anything more to come out? This feels like the endgame. Either he is toppled (by his own side and the sheer weight of anger) or he endures, and will probably continue until 2024

    I agree with the markets that the former is likelier, some time this year, but he is a great survivor
    As far as I understood it, there are also reports of yet another info leak lined up for release - another video from the press conference briefing room, this time with Boris's advisers talking about his personal business.

    That could be what Cummings has planned as his coup de grace. However, might he not even need it ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    The French case numbers are quite something. Make our efforts look positively amateurish.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    He will make many millions, for sure

    From 1 book, yes.

    I said career.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    You are missing the point. Eden remained nominal PM until the new leader was in place.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    This is imbecilically dumb

    His memoir will be fought over tooth and nail. I know you have a lunatic hatred of the man, but the fact is he is big box office, worldwide. And he has been UK Prime Minister for two of the biggest events in recent British history, Brexit and Covid, where the first had a global impact and where the second saw Britain play a pivotal global role (from the vaccine success to the lockdown failure)

    And he can write. And he has a gift for personal publicity, like him or not. And he has a "vivid" private history, more than any British PM... ever?

    He will make many millions, for sure

    Hmm, He is just not fashionable any more. The Katie Price of politicians may find that he is about as financially viable as she is.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Exclusive

    Downing Street private office drunk booze and stayed late on the last Friday before Christmas 2020, when group socialising was barred.

    Was on Dec 18 (same night as the infamous press party). Martin Reynolds attended. Three sources speak to Tel.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/11/pressure-grows-boris-johnsons-private-secretary-amid-claims/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    it was just wrong on so many levels.
    That is a truly brilliant pun. It has elevated the conversation.
    The Beckhams named their son Brooklyn because that was where he was conceived.
    Makes you think about people called Otis ...
    Or Mat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    This is imbecilically dumb

    His memoir will be fought over tooth and nail. I know you have a lunatic hatred of the man, but the fact is he is big box office, worldwide. And he has been UK Prime Minister for two of the biggest events in recent British history, Brexit and Covid, where the first had a global impact and where the second saw Britain play a pivotal global role (from the vaccine success to the lockdown failure)

    And he can write. And he has a gift for personal publicity, like him or not. And he has a "vivid" private history, more than any British PM... ever?

    He will make many millions, for sure

    Hmm, He is just not fashionable any more. The Katie Price of politicians may find that he is about as financially viable as she is.
    It's utter bollocks. It's an embarrassing argument
  • Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    This is imbecilically dumb

    His memoir will be fought over tooth and nail. I know you have a lunatic hatred of the man, but the fact is he is big box office, worldwide. And he has been UK Prime Minister for two of the biggest events in recent British history, Brexit and Covid, where the first had a global impact and where the second saw Britain play a pivotal global role (from the vaccine success to the lockdown failure)

    And he can write. And he has a gift for personal publicity, like him or not. And he has a "vivid" private history, more than any British PM... ever?

    He will make many millions, for sure

    Hmm, He is just not fashionable any more. The Katie Price of politicians may find that he is about as financially viable as she is.
    No I think Leon is right on this. I may not like the man and think he is the worst PM since... well ever.. but he will indeed make a fortune out of his memoirs and post-PM deals. We may not like it but that is the way of the world.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leon said:

    Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    He will spaff that up the wall in a couple of years and the begging bowl will be back out
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
    And what if he lies about the Cabinet's wishes?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    I've bought Cameron, Blair and Obama's books. It'll be a hard pass for Boris I think.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Has anyone ever planted a fig tree? Is it true you need to put bricks in the planting hole for it to fruit? What an extraordinary evolutionary quirk if so.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
    And what if he lies about the Cabinet's wishes?
    As if... ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    I've bought Cameron, Blair and Obama's books. It'll be a hard pass for Boris I think.
    You're a glutton for punishment.
  • TimT said:

    Since it's now the evening, here's an interesting story: A man climbs the highest mountain in Libya, Bikku Bitti, which no-one had climbed before. It takes him three attempts in two years, during one of which he nearly dies. The mountain is on the Libya/Chad border, hundreds of kilometres from the nearest village (and that is in rebel hands). it is very hot and arid, with few oases.

    Guess what he finds at the summit...

    https://www.summitpost.org/ginge-fullen/333351#chapter_1

    - “… which no-one had climbed before.”

    Total bollocks. The summit had a cairn and there were several other cairns around the nearby secondary summit. Who built those? The fairy folk?

    Typical white supremacy tale: no one else has ever been here on a hill in bongo bongo land because you can’t buy a journal of their ascent in the Hampstead branch of WH Smith.
    Clearly some Scots had been there if there were cairns ...
    This is the traditional spoor of the Scotsman.


    I could go one of them!

    The wife’s got me on a white month and I’m gasping for a pint already.
    Not my favourite pint, but a four pack pulled out of a Hebridean burn after an hour or so has its charms..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The private office is where Johnson’s inner circle of civil servants + closest aides work.

    One source in Downing St that night told us: “Everyone was talking about going to the private office drinks as well.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481011952948330500
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    LOL. He was basically selling a bit of extortion by which the government bullies those vaguely involved but with money to cough up £4bn or face punitive taxation. Not a particularly Tory thing to do but highly populist. He’s not to be under estimated.
    It’s been a long time coming a policy on this. How realistic and practical was what he said though? As time is of the essence how quickly can the money go to the people who need it saving them from their stress? Could the government itself not do more in the meantime?
    The problem is that the developers are not at fault either. This cladding met the regulations of the time.

    None of government, leaseholders, freeholders, developers really were to blame, though possibly some of the manufacturers were. In effect Grenfell retrospectively altered building standards.
    Yet we have quite a few people out there in our society in a bit of a worrying spot, needing help now.
    Foxy says developers weren’t to blame. But that depends on how you view responsibility. Relying on what’s strictly legal or doing your DD and only using what you think is good enough.

    Either way, there’s no role for government if not to act as last resort insurer against just such this kind of retrospectively uninsurable event. A total scandal that there are still people unable to sell or even remortgage their flats they bought in good faith. Equally still no proper debate of how far an SPV’s limited liability status should extend in such circumstances or whether the former directors are fair game in future. Probably all makes me sounds a bit corbynite that.
    No it just make you sound aware, articulate and caring.
    The day when one nation conservatism and liberalism can be dismissed as Corbynism will be a bad moment for our country.

    The Grenfell Enquiry is taking too long to get the salmon letters out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive

    Downing Street private office drunk booze and stayed late on the last Friday before Christmas 2020, when group socialising was barred.

    Was on Dec 18 (same night as the infamous press party). Martin Reynolds attended. Three sources speak to Tel.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/11/pressure-grows-boris-johnsons-private-secretary-amid-claims/

    Is there anyone actually sober in Downing St?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    moonshine said:

    Has anyone ever planted a fig tree? Is it true you need to put bricks in the planting hole for it to fruit? What an extraordinary evolutionary quirk if so.

    I think you've answered your own question.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    it was just wrong on so many levels.
    That is a truly brilliant pun. It has elevated the conversation.
    The Beckhams named their son Brooklyn because that was where he was conceived.
    Makes you think about people called Otis ...
    Or Mat.
    Or Kenilworth Station.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    The good news out of this is there is absolutely no way Boris has the authority to take an extension of Plan B measures to Parliament before they expire on the 26th.

    Much more likely he tries declaring victory over Omicron as a dead cat strategy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    GIN1138 said:

    Is there anyone actually sober in Downing St?

    Noted elsewhere, apparently they don't distinguish between drinking and working...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    it was just wrong on so many levels.
    That is a truly brilliant pun. It has elevated the conversation.
    The Beckhams named their son Brooklyn because that was where he was conceived.
    Makes you think about people called Otis ...
    Or Mat.
    Or Kenilworth Station.
    In the memorable words of Ali G Over the Bins Behind Tesco's.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    I've bought Cameron, Blair and Obama's books. It'll be a hard pass for Boris I think.
    You actually bought Cameron's book?! The excerpts were so cringingly dull. My God.

    I haven't read any of them, in toto, to be fair. I imagine Blair's were self serving, vain but thoughtful, Obama's earnest and maybe eloquent?

    The best political memoirs tend to be by the close observers rather than the actual players, to my mind. Alistair Campbell's Diaries were superb, ditto Alan Clark's even tho both men have detestable aspects to their characters. Both are natural writers

    But that said, international publishers pay huge sums for major memoirs by significant and recognisable leaders, and Boris - loathe him or not - is one of those
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Downing Street staff were advised to clean up their phones by removing information that could suggest lockdown parties were held at No 10, The Independent has been told.

    Two sources claim a senior member of staff told them it would be a good idea to remove any messages implying they had attended or were even aware of anything that could “look like a party”.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/partygate-phones-clean-up-investigation-sue-gray-b1991055.html

    Boris Johnson is the new Richard Nixon.

    Complete with his Coxsuckers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    I've bought Cameron, Blair and Obama's books. It'll be a hard pass for Boris I think.
    You're a glutton for punishment.
    I’ve read lots of political biographies and diaries, for a time I binged on them. I like books like that when they get very granular and you can see how they lived, loved and argued. I think the main take out is, I come away not liking a single one of the protagonists.
    The Blair Diaries by Alistair Campbell is a case in point, almost unreadable btw how much Campbell fancies himself all the way through. Though it’s funny how he makes out Blair wouldn’t even know how to dress himself properly if he wasn’t around 🙂.

    There’s a contrast with biographies with religious or creative people. They can come across as full of themselves too, yet still more thoughtful and reflective.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    I think the main take out is, I come away not liking a single one of the protagonists.

    I read Adrian Newey's book.

    Fascinating stuff. He comes across as a total shit though
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    Yes but ... Johnson has no understanding of the value of money. It will drain away in no time.

    For the moment he has a high maintenance wife with the tastes of Viv Nicholson. She doesn't look like the sort to hang around when the freebies wither away.

    He better hope that when the money runs out the benefactors remain loyal.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    I think you stumble here upon why the story has been so slow to gather pace.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    You miss the point. It's about there being a vacancy immediately and there needing to be a PM.
  • Never thought Boris Johnson would emulate Lord Kitchener.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    moonshine said:

    Has anyone ever planted a fig tree? Is it true you need to put bricks in the planting hole for it to fruit? What an extraordinary evolutionary quirk if so.

    I don’t think that is true. Family has one in Yorkshire with fruit on it. It didn’t grow like a tree but like a sprawling bush. Considering how big it was and how big the lovely leaves, it didn’t produce much fruit, and ripened late in the year after everything else it seemed to me
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    I've bought Cameron, Blair and Obama's books. It'll be a hard pass for Boris I think.
    You're a glutton for punishment.
    I’ve read lots of political biographies and diaries, for a time I binged on them. I like books like that when they get very granular and you can see how they lived, loved and argued. I think the main take out is, I come away not liking a single one of the protagonists.
    The Blair Diaries by Alistair Campbell is a case in point, almost unreadable btw how much Campbell fancies himself all the way through. Though it’s funny how he makes out Blair wouldn’t even know how to dress himself properly if he wasn’t around 🙂.

    There’s a contrast with biographies with religious or creative people. They can come across as full of themselves too, yet still more thoughtful and reflective.
    Yet the Campbell Diaries are compulsive reading, no? They have that vivid, fluid and immediate quality. This is a gifted writer and excellent observer writing down his thoughts on the day, just as they come. They are full of fascinating insights on every page

    Just one of a billion: the extent of Blair's self centred vanity and thoughtlessness.

    Blair emerges from some train in some northern town in driving rain, without a coat or umbrella. A young female aide rushes over with an umbrella and she invites Blair to shelter under it. Shortly after, he takes the umbrella for himself and wanders off, leaving her to get soaked, he doesn't even notice what he's done

    It's tiny but telling vignettes like that which makes Diaries sing. Alan Clark's are replete with the same gems, tho Clark is even bitchier
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135

    A lot of bad whining rather than a bad lot of wining?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    it was just wrong on so many levels.
    That is a truly brilliant pun. It has elevated the conversation.
    The Beckhams named their son Brooklyn because that was where he was conceived.
    Makes you think about people called Otis ...
    Or Mat.
    Or John.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited January 2022
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    I think you stumble here upon why the story has been so slow to gather pace.
    Precisely

    This might also explain why Downing Street have presumed they are safe from this leaking (which is how they have been acting, until now). If senior journalists were present, from the main TV news channels and biggest newspapers, cui bono if it all leaks out?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    "wiff waff, bloody eurocrats. sheep... shark... me, in a girls dormitory, alone... and you know they can't even bury the sheep... whatever were they thinking?"
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Scott_xP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is there anyone actually sober in Downing St?

    Noted elsewhere, apparently they don't distinguish between drinking and working...
    Boris gets his cue from Mario Lanza.
    https://youtu.be/cRv9tyz1XVc?t=12
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Downing Street staff were advised to clean up their phones by removing information that could suggest lockdown parties were held at No 10, The Independent has been told.

    Two sources claim a senior member of staff told them it would be a good idea to remove any messages implying they had attended or were even aware of anything that could “look like a party”.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/partygate-phones-clean-up-investigation-sue-gray-b1991055.html

    Boris Johnson is the new Richard Nixon.

    So is Sunak the new Gerald Ford then and Starmer the new Jimmy Carter?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    Yes, there would have to be a leadership contest. If Boris remains as PM while the contest is taking place as is the normal practice then that's fine.

    If Boris has to resign as both leader and PM with immediate effect because be admits to criminality it all starts getting messy as HMQ can never be left without a PM - so someone else has to become PM while a formal leadership contest is happening.

    The same dilemma would apply if a PM died suddenly in office of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    You miss the point. It's about there being a vacancy immediately and there needing to be a PM.
    He can remain PM until there is a new leader chosen if he goes
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    If this is the rationale of the top person in the PM's office, I give up.
    "Reynolds was said to have become “panicky” but concluded cancelling would be worse than pushing ahead becaus
    e this would draw attention to his email."
    @Steven_Swinford @hzeffman
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inside-the-downing-street-lockdown-party-tesco-rose-and-jokes-about-drones-mb08tpk8v

    BoZo announcement tomorrow that Reynolds has been sacked?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    You miss the point. It's about there being a vacancy immediately and there needing to be a PM.
    He can remain PM until there is a new leader chosen if he goes
    @GIN1138 has already explained.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    You miss the point. It's about there being a vacancy immediately and there needing to be a PM.
    He can remain PM until there is a new leader chosen if he goes
    depends how he goes - if it's because of committing a criminal offence staying may be difficult.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    I've bought Cameron, Blair and Obama's books. It'll be a hard pass for Boris I think.
    You're a glutton for punishment.
    I’ve read lots of political biographies and diaries, for a time I binged on them. I like books like that when they get very granular and you can see how they lived, loved and argued. I think the main take out is, I come away not liking a single one of the protagonists.
    The Blair Diaries by Alistair Campbell is a case in point, almost unreadable btw how much Campbell fancies himself all the way through. Though it’s funny how he makes out Blair wouldn’t even know how to dress himself properly if he wasn’t around 🙂.

    There’s a contrast with biographies with religious or creative people. They can come across as full of themselves too, yet still more thoughtful and reflective.
    Yet the Campbell Diaries are compulsive reading, no? They have that vivid, fluid and immediate quality. This is a gifted writer and excellent observer writing down his thoughts on the day, just as they come. They are full of fascinating insights on every page

    Just one of a billion: the extent of Blair's self centred vanity and thoughtlessness.

    Blair emerges from some train in some northern town in driving rain, without a coat or umbrella. A young female aide rushes over with an umbrella and she invites Blair to shelter under it. Shortly after, he takes the umbrella for himself and wanders off, leaving her to get soaked, he doesn't even notice what he's done

    It would make a great allegory if the young woman had been called Britannia.

    He did to her on a small scale what he did to the rest of the country for ten years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    You miss the point. It's about there being a vacancy immediately and there needing to be a PM.
    He can remain PM until there is a new leader chosen if he goes
    depends how he goes - if it's because of committing a criminal offence staying may be difficult.
    He is not going to resign by admitting a criminal offence, absurd, even Nixon stayed President until Ford took over
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135

    Opens up a second question - is alcohol allowed to be consumed while at work and working - in a lot of places it isn't
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    Yes, there would have to be a leadership contest. If Boris remains as PM while the contest is taking place as is the normal practice then that's fine.

    If Boris has to resign as both leader and PM with immediate effect because be admits to criminality it all starts getting messy as HMQ can never be left without a PM - so someone else has to become PM while a formal leadership content is happening.

    The same dilemma would apply if a PM died suddenly in office of course.
    The answer is an emergency, stopgap Prime Ministerial SWAT team led by Chris Grayling and Gavin Williamson. They can parachute in, and parachute out.

    When there's a crisis, you need the professionals.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135

    Nobody is really going to care about that.

    Lots of politicians, not least Thatcher, have hammered the alcohol in their office and offered a drink to those they're working with.

    And drinking in an office during work doesn't have the image of enjoyment.

    The garden party is different because it looks like a place where it would nice to have a social drink.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited January 2022

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    GIN1138 said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he does to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!
    Misleading. Eden was already on sick leave and Butler the acting PM at the time. Moreover, there was no 'leadership election' at that time, or until 1965. The Queen appointed on the advice of the cabinet, including Eden, and also on this occasion Churchill as a respected senior figure, and then the new PM was acclaimed leader at a meeting of the PCP.
    Yes I know there was no leadership content. But that was the 1950s.

    As we live in 2022 not 1957 there would have to be a leadership contest or there would be public outrage.
    There's a tiny chance that a leading Tory could find themselves as PM without a leadership election. Boris could fall under a Boris bus for example (let's hope not obviously)
    Because that has worked so well for Labour with the coronation of Brown, or the Tories with the coronation of Howard, both lost.

    Or indeed May not facing a membership vote after Leadsom pulled out. A proper election is a real test of campaigning abilities and how you might handle a general election campaign
    Yes, there would have to be a leadership contest. If Boris remains as PM while the contest is taking place as is the normal practice then that's fine.

    If Boris has to resign as both leader and PM with immediate effect because be admits to criminality it all starts getting messy as HMQ can never be left without a PM - so someone else has to become PM while a formal leadership content is happening.

    The same dilemma would apply if a PM died suddenly in office of course.
    The answer is an emergency, stopgap Prime Ministerial SWAT team led by Chris Grayling and Gavin Williamson. They can parachute in, and parachute out.
    Frank Spencer style in the case of Williamson! :D
  • Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
    And what if he lies about the Cabinet's wishes?
    Presumably the cabinet would recommend someone not considered likely to win. Dominic Raab, for example, given that he is supposedly deputy PM.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    But he's never taken responsibility for anything properly in his life. There's a first time for everything, I suppose, but I still wonder if he might just try and tough it out ond an on, each time battling on until the next time Cummings pulls a rabbit out of the hat.
    Can there possibly be anything more to come out? This feels like the endgame. Either he is toppled (by his own side and the sheer weight of anger) or he endures, and will probably continue until 2024

    I agree with the markets that the former is likelier, some time this year, but he is a great survivor
    I can live with the lying. But not the fact he has hung people out to dry in the hope that it would make the story go away, people who worked for him and were loyal to him.
    This episode, more than any other, has revealed his true nature and he cannot bullshit his way out of it.
    People have said for many years that he is a nasty piece of work, it seems they were right.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    edited January 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Next Con Leader market:

    Shortening
    Sunak
    Gove

    Lengthening
    Patel
    Raab
    Badenoch

    Gove. Hmm. I still very much doubt it, except in caretaker capacity.
    Thought he was good this week on Today after the stuck in a lift episode. Particularly skilled at deploying the 1 word answer which gives the interviewer not much to go on.
    That lift story ended in a terrible tragedy when somebody let him out.
    it was just wrong on so many levels.
    That is a truly brilliant pun. It has elevated the conversation.
    The Beckhams named their son Brooklyn because that was where he was conceived.
    Makes you think about people called Otis ...
    An apocryphal tale.

    A pub version of Mr and Mrs and the missus comes out of whatever place that she’s been held incommunicado while hubby answers intimate questions.

    Compère: Ok, finally we asked your husband what is the strangest place you have had sex. To win a £20 Tesco voucher and a free round for your table what is your answer?

    Blushing woman: Och, I cannae say!

    Compère: Come on now, we’re all grown ups here, was it a bus shelter or a plane or a lift..?

    Pub: Say it! Say it!

    Blushing woman: Ok then. UP THE ARSE!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Harry Cole?

    Adam Boulton always looks like he enjoys a party

  • Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited January 2022
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
    And what if he lies about the Cabinet's wishes?
    Presumably the cabinet would recommend someone not considered likely to win. Dominic Raab, for example, given that he is supposedly deputy PM.
    That's possible.

    But I think whoever got the role as nominal PM during any contest would be in pole position in that contest as the title, the office and place has an "elevating" effect... so if it ever comes to it the cabinet choose wisely...

    They might offer up JRM or Priti to HMQ thinking they're not going to win the contest only to find they become leader after the office elevates them... wouldn't that be fun haha! :D
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Jonathan said:

    So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters now go in organically? Will a cabinet minister resign and challenge? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?

    Excellent question. The foreign office lingering suggests he is a tough it out type of beast. My take is parties don’t finish him, as the only way they can lead to censure is a vonk - and that’s down to the MPs who may not be ready to do that yet. On the one hand, as days pass without revelations, Boris and Conservative poll ratings will recover a bit, so it depends as well on what further revelations the plotters have coordinated to release to keep the fuckmule going. Just as Mike’s thread said Boris is going to need more than vaccine bounce to turn this around I don’t think the improving covid picture is helping Boris or Conservatives very much, the credit for the covid situation is going to omicron for being milder. Which is fair enough I suppose - besides which jabs come in UK bottles not supplied by Tory Party ones, and a lot of covid success in UK has been down to people offering their arms and complying with lockdowns and restrictions.

    Also we now have opposition parties keen to keep Boris in number ten, tainting the cabinet, government and whole party. Not in the interest of Opposition parties Boris goes sooner.

    I think it’s going to take a different enquiry into something that requires censure, like parliamentary commissioner investigating cash in exchange for a donors pet exhibition, to force a resignation or vonk.
    Firstly, thanks to everyone flagging up where I find The Great season 2. I went right through Q looking for it 🤦‍♀️
    So I’ll get started on that now. Especially If as you say it’s as good as first series.

    Secondly, to add to my answer above, as the days gone on I don’t think they are going to vonk Boris over parties, I think Boris and his MPs will need their hands forced by a different type of investigation, so I still think wallpapergate, or something technically wrong as an MP needing a sanction most likely to rid us of this turbulent PM.

    It’s also got to be considered now the opposition parties won’t want Boris reign to end soon, maybe Starmer asks on fuel bills or cladding tomorrow instead?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    FT UK: ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ faces ‘potentially terminal’ showdown over Downing St parties #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1481020114225008640/photo/1
  • Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
    Yes, the other PB has been talking about The Sun's 2020 Christmas party for ages.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
    And what if he lies about the Cabinet's wishes?
    Presumably the cabinet would recommend someone not considered likely to win. Dominic Raab, for example, given that he is supposedly deputy PM.
    In that case Raab would benefit from incumbency and could let Sunak and Truss rip themselves apart and come through the middle to become the new PM.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    COVID in China, just a few cases....has always been under control.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17289144/china-quarantine-camps-toughest-lockdown/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    METRO: ‘Contempt for the victims’ #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1481020410586140675/photo/1
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
    And how often did it happen in hospital staff rooms, or schools, or wherever? After a horrible hard shift during the pandemic?

    Who can blame them? I don't think I'd say "Oh no, I can only work here next to you, I can't crack open a can of Stella at the same time, to relax"

    The killer difference here is sending out a proper invite and setting up tables in the garden with racks of specially-bought booze and making so much noise passers-by overheard over the garden wall. And then Boris was stupid enough to go down and say Hi?

    Idiot
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    If Boris resigns he’ll have to move, which then means more decorating and more wallpaper.

    Ergo he will do his best to cling on to office.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
    And how often did it happen in hospital staff rooms, or schools, or wherever? After a horrible hard shift during the pandemic?

    Who can blame them? I don't think I'd say "Oh no, I can only work here next to you, I can't crack open a can of Stella at the same time, to relax"

    The killer difference here is sending out a proper invite and setting up tables in the garden with racks of specially-bought booze and making so much noise passers-by overheard over the garden wall. And then Boris was stupid enough to go down and say Hi?

    Idiot
    Oh I am not excusing Downing Street. If you are the ones making the rules, you better bloody make sure you aren't breaking them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
    And how often did it happen in hospital staff rooms, or schools, or wherever? After a horrible hard shift during the pandemic?

    Who can blame them? I don't think I'd say "Oh no, I can only work here next to you, I can't crack open a can of Stella at the same time, to relax"

    The killer difference here is sending out a proper invite and setting up tables in the garden with racks of specially-bought booze and making so much noise passers-by overheard over the garden wall. And then Boris was stupid enough to go down and say Hi?

    Idiot
    Isn’t the killer difference is he that made the rules?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Other separate allegations emerging tonight - including that Reynolds tried to organise a leaving do in the summer of 2020 but dropped plans after internal push back.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481020967174516739
This discussion has been closed.