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LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Scott_xP said:

    I think the main take out is, I come away not liking a single one of the protagonists.

    I read Adrian Newey's book.

    Fascinating stuff. He comes across as a total shit though
    Sean’s posts are fascinating. He comes across as a total shit though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited January 2022

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    This is imbecilically dumb

    His memoir will be fought over tooth and nail. I know you have a lunatic hatred of the man, but the fact is he is big box office, worldwide. And he has been UK Prime Minister for two of the biggest events in recent British history, Brexit and Covid, where the first had a global impact and where the second saw Britain play a pivotal global role (from the vaccine success to the lockdown failure)

    And he can write. And he has a gift for personal publicity, like him or not. And he has a "vivid" private history, more than any British PM... ever?

    He will make many millions, for sure

    Hmm, He is just not fashionable any more. The Katie Price of politicians may find that he is about as financially viable as she is.
    No I think Leon is right on this. I may not like the man and think he is the worst PM since... well ever.. but he will indeed make a fortune out of his memoirs and post-PM deals. We may not like it but that is the way of the world.
    He’s got a LOT of assorted debts and charges though!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
    And how often did it happen in hospital staff rooms, or schools, or wherever? After a horrible hard shift during the pandemic?

    Who can blame them? I don't think I'd say "Oh no, I can only work here next to you, I can't crack open a can of Stella at the same time, to relax"

    The killer difference here is sending out a proper invite and setting up tables in the garden with racks of specially-bought booze and making so much noise passers-by overheard over the garden wall. And then Boris was stupid enough to go down and say Hi?

    Idiot
    Isn’t the killer difference is he that made the rules?
    Well yes, that too

    To be frank this is a killer story on multiple levels. I'll be surprised if Boris survives the year. Tho not entirely shocked
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135

    Opens up a second question - is alcohol allowed to be consumed while at work and working - in a lot of places it isn't
    Have you never watched Yes Minister? :smile:
  • Could we all move to the garden now, as this party thread has been shut down...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Leon said:

    I find it hard to believe not a single senior journalist got invited to any of the 7,394 parties held during lockdowns 1, 2 and 3

    There must be some worried people in Fleet Street, as well as Downing Street

    The Sun seem consistently uninterested by these parties....
    Totally unrelated to the fact Harry Cole, political editor of The Sun, used to be in a relationship with Carrie Symonds.
    I thought it was more the fact the Currant Bun rumoured to have a party or two themselves....to be honest, I wouldn't be exactly shocked to find loads of the media were having at very least a few sherbets in the office from time to time.
    The other PB has a number of tales about the Sun’s Xmas 2020 party
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    Really? I think he has shat all over his brand and wouldn't be welcome as after dinner Speaker in many places. He will be person non grata. His autobiography would be full of self serving lies and completely useless to historians
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    Downing Street staff were advised to clean up their phones by removing information that could suggest lockdown parties were held at No 10, The Independent has been told.

    Two sources claim a senior member of staff told them it would be a good idea to remove any messages implying they had attended or were even aware of anything that could “look like a party”.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/partygate-phones-clean-up-investigation-sue-gray-b1991055.html

    Boris Johnson is the new Richard Nixon.

    So is Sunak the new Gerald Ford then and Starmer the new Jimmy Carter?
    At long last HY! The penny is dropping
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135

    Opens up a second question - is alcohol allowed to be consumed while at work and working - in a lot of places it isn't
    Have you never watched Yes Minister? :smile:
    There's a question about your VAT returns - from '69. And a Mr Haig is on the line as well....

    Yes, the drinking culture hung on in politics far longer than in the outside world. In '95, when I joined an oil company, they had just, that year removed the bars in the building. That were open in business hours. No, not on the ground floor, but inside the offices, upstairs. Company access only.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    IanB2 said:

    Personally I think he might just do a runner one day.

    No big resignation announcement, no podium moment, no TV interview or PMQs or whatever. Just one day, no-one can find Boris. All the journos, all the cabinet, everyone just going "where's the PM? He's not turned up for the thing and he missed the last thing".

    2 days later and some fax comes in from Outer Mongolia that he's stepped down and X is now in charge. Never to be heard from again.

    Or something.

    cf. Reggie Perrin? They’ll just find some crumpled clothes and underwear overdue for a wash, on the beach?
    Harold Holt?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disappearance_of_Harold_Holt
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    Really? I think he has shat all over his brand and wouldn't be welcome as after dinner Speaker in many places. He will be person non grata. His autobiography would be full of self serving lies and completely useless to historians
    You'd think that, but the history of such things is against you. Nixon made a fortune on the circuit. McNamara as well. Blair is making more money by the year....

    Hell, people are throwing money at T. May as a... speaker?!
  • eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Downing Street this evening is not denying a) alcohol was drunk in private office on Dec 18 2020 and b) Martin Reynolds was present.

    But they are saying firmly it was not a party. No10 spokes: “A number of private office staff worked late into the evening on the Covid response.”

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481015168192688135

    Opens up a second question - is alcohol allowed to be consumed while at work and working - in a lot of places it isn't
    Have you never watched Yes Minister? :smile:
    That episode ("There's a delegation of Teachers to meet you, Minister... I must go and see them before the Bell's goes...") is meant to be based on a true story, isn't it?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    If they televise Boris’ memoirs, who would they get to play him?

    My best guess is reviving that old Jabba the Hutt puppet.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The other problem for BoZo is this rather fucks up his future career.

    I know he got sacked twice for writing lies, but if he resigns as PM for telling lies, who will want to read (or print) his crap in the future?

    This is imbecilically dumb

    His memoir will be fought over tooth and nail. I know you have a lunatic hatred of the man, but the fact is he is big box office, worldwide. And he has been UK Prime Minister for two of the biggest events in recent British history, Brexit and Covid, where the first had a global impact and where the second saw Britain play a pivotal global role (from the vaccine success to the lockdown failure)

    And he can write. And he has a gift for personal publicity, like him or not. And he has a "vivid" private history, more than any British PM... ever?

    He will make many millions, for sure

    Hmm, He is just not fashionable any more. The Katie Price of politicians may find that he is about as financially viable as she is.
    No I think Leon is right on this. I may not like the man and think he is the worst PM since... well ever.. but he will indeed make a fortune out of his memoirs and post-PM deals. We may not like it but that is the way of the world.
    He’s got a LOT of assorted debts and changes though!
    There is surely a limit though to how much he can earn through his shambolic comedy act. He isn't going to be useful and influential in the way that someone like Obama or Blair is. And he is going to just burn through the money, it won't ever be enough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Bradby is absolutely taking the p*** out of Johnson on ITV News.

    I was wrong. He's toast
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    Really? I think he has shat all over his brand and wouldn't be welcome as after dinner Speaker in many places. He will be person non grata. His autobiography would be full of self serving lies and completely useless to historians
    You'd think that, but the history of such things is against you. Nixon made a fortune on the circuit. McNamara as well. Blair is making more money by the year....

    Hell, people are throwing money at T. May as a... speaker?!
    Yep. There have always been folk with more money than sense.
  • Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    Really? I think he has shat all over his brand and wouldn't be welcome as after dinner Speaker in many places. He will be person non grata. His autobiography would be full of self serving lies and completely useless to historians
    Presumably, he will make good money from the memoirs, maybe enough to have some left over after dealing with divorce settlements, loans from benefactors and whatnot.

    What he won't be is the Great Man of History. If he goes soon, he'll have lasted even less time than May. And I doubt he will be welcome in polite society afterwards.

    If he just wanted to be rich, famous and loved, he could and should have gone down the celebrity route. Presenter of Top Gear or something. Though that might well be more like hard work than he really wants.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Regarding the discussion earlier about flats, my understanding the emerging building safety legislation is going to cause a lot of additional ongoing obligations for freeholders, which is likely to translate in to additional service charges for leaseholders. It seems that this will be a particularly big issue on taller buildings. It could ultimately make tall blocks of flats in cheap areas effectively worthless.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A reminder of how much political memoirs can make

    David Cameron got £800,000 for his, from just his UK publisher


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17888934.marianne-taylor-bargain-bin-awaits-david-camerons-candid-memoir/


    Blair got £4.7 million, probably for worldwide English language rights

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-blair-money-millions-2011-09?r=US&IR=T#the-book-deal-1

    Even Brown got a rumoured million or so


    Boris is easily as bankable as Blair, indeed I would guess much more so in continental Europe and maybe America. Brexit fascinates people abroad, and Boris has the entire story, and he is the man that did it

    He should make £10 million from worldwide rights, plus TV and movie deals, maybe more

    And if that sounds an insane amount, Barack Obama for $70 - SEVENTY - million

    The idea no one will want to read Boris' story is infantile. Unless he actually goes to jail for some awful crime, he will be rich via his memoirs

    Really? I think he has shat all over his brand and wouldn't be welcome as after dinner Speaker in many places. He will be person non grata. His autobiography would be full of self serving lies and completely useless to historians
    You'd think that, but the history of such things is against you. Nixon made a fortune on the circuit. McNamara as well. Blair is making more money by the year....

    Hell, people are throwing money at T. May as a... speaker?!
    Yep. There have always been folk with more money than sense.
    Though in May's case, she's a smart tough cookie with worthwhile stuff to say... think of her "Nasty Party" speech in 2002, or her ability to respond meaningfully during the interminable fiascos of 2016-9. She failed as PM (though one wonders if anyone else could have succeeded), and in normal circumstances she'd never have got near the job, but she deserved to be at the top table for a decade.

    Whereas BoJo has always relied on a pissed audience to cover his incoherence and lack of preparation. Even as an after-dinner speaker, he's a more-money-than-sense Gyles Brandreth. (And talking of memoirs of people near power but without power themselves, "Breaking the Code" is a damn good account of 1990-7.)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    GIN1138 said:

    Cookie said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    pigeon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If the PM admits to breaking the law & he decides to resign (no definite sign this is the plan btw)… it’s very difficult for him to stay in as acting PM while there is a leadership contest
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1481000582156591107

    Who would become acting PM in that scenario? Raab? Gove? Sunak?
    Never mind acting anything, someone is the Prime Minister or they are not. If Johnson resigns then the Queen has to call for somebody else. Hence my earlier question: I don't know whether it's still down to Johnson to recommend a successor if he resigns in disgrace (I suspect that it might be) or if the Cabinet would have to pick one (as if he had joined the choir celestial.)
    This is how Eden to Macmillan worked out:

    "Eden resigned on 9 January 1957, after his doctors warned him his life was at stake if he continued in office. Although the media expected Butler would get the nod as Eden's successor, a survey of the cabinet taken for the Queen showed Macmillan was the nearly unanimous choice, and he became prime minister on 10 January 1957"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden#1957_resignation

    So Boris would resign as Con leader and PM.

    The cabinet would likely choose a successor for the Queen to send to for. Boris would have to relay the Cabinets wishes to the Queen when he goes to visit her for the final time.

    Presumably that successor would then join the leadership content that has already been triggered when Johnson resigned as Con leader and PM.

    Whoever that successor is would be in pole position as the eventual party leader I think as they'd already have the Prime Ministerial office of state to back up their pitch!

    Of course if they didn't win the content to become Con leader they would be the shortest reigned Prime Minister of all time!
    And what if he lies about the Cabinet's wishes?
    Presumably the cabinet would recommend someone not considered likely to win. Dominic Raab, for example, given that he is supposedly deputy PM.
    That's possible.

    But I think whoever got the role as nominal PM during any contest would be in pole position in that contest as the title, the office and place has an "elevating" effect... so if it ever comes to it the cabinet choose wisely...

    They might offer up JRM or Priti to HMQ thinking they're not going to win the contest only to find they become leader after the office elevates them... wouldn't that be fun haha! :D
    Raab, Priti or JRM must surely be unthinkable aren't they?
  • Oh, and

    This thread has been offered a million pound contract to publish its memoirs.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Scott_xP said:

    I think the main take out is, I come away not liking a single one of the protagonists.

    I read Adrian Newey's book.

    Fascinating stuff. He comes across as a total shit though
    Sean’s posts are fascinating. He comes across as a total shit though.
    I disagree, I like him
This discussion has been closed.