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LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 11 in General
imageLAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com

The sad and sudden death last Friday of former prominent trade unionist, Jack Dromey, means there is a by-election in the Birmingham Erdington constituency where he had been the MP since GE2010.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 17,262
    Threads to which the answer is an obvious YES
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    Percentage point majority, perhaps, not sure about absolute majority.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284
    "Reporting of positive cases remains unchanged. In England and Northern Ireland, cases identified through a rapid lateral flow test are included in case counts."

    Scotland too.

    Wales going PCR only, though they are keeping the lat flow information in the weeds of their website.
  • tlg86 said:

    Percentage point majority, perhaps, not sure about absolute majority.

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    Pulpstar said:

    "Reporting of positive cases remains unchanged. In England and Northern Ireland, cases identified through a rapid lateral flow test are included in case counts."

    Scotland too.

    Wales going PCR only, though they are keeping the lat flow information in the weeds of their website.

    The one country that stands up as not reporting fairly and accurately is Wales.

    To paraphrase a great man.
  • Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327

    Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    Entirely fair. I won't be going back. Too old to watch WWE on wheels.
  • On topic, if Labour want a massive majority in Birmingham Erdington then they should select Dromey's predecessor in the seat, step forward Sion Simon.

    You should read some of his scholarly works.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Not guaranteed, if Truss gets to the membership vote she might well beat Sunak and then the Tories really would be heading for a 1997 style landslide defeat
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144
    Novak Djoković claims to have been tested positiv for Covid on the 16th of December.
    However the timestamp for the digital version of his positiv test indicates the result may actually be from the 26th of December.
    Our reporting @derspiegel in german
    https://www.spiegel.de/sport/tennis/ungereimtheiten-im-fall-novak-djokovic-wurde-sein-positiver-pcr-test-manipuliert-a-6073206a-f3b1-4836-a823-95bcba05437a
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,284
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Yeah I think Sunak too, Liz is a PM for sunny, happy times like the turn of the millenium tbh.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 272
    I think it will be an easy Labour hold with close to a 20% majority, something like Lab 55% Con 36%.


    Even if Galloway stood as an attempted spoiler, I can see Labour winning comfortably.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    If the Tories are lucky they may yet beat the LDs for second in Birmingham Erdington, otherwise the only question is the size of the Labour majority
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    edited January 11

    tlg86 said:

    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
    You had the chance to vote OMRLP, and you didn't take it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,728
    Scotland decriminalises meeting 500 people outdoors. In Wales more than 50 remains an offence.
  • Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    Posted on the previous thread that Hamilton is the GOAT of the modern era, may beat Senna from the Classic era, and behind him you have to go back to Jim Clark or Fangio.

    But if I were him I would quit as well. Think what else he can do with himself. That 8th title may endlessly elude him - quit at the very top.

    Can Mercedes hire Nick de Vrys for his vacant seat? That would be a very tasty pairing him and Russell.
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Yeah I think Sunak too, Liz is a PM for sunny, happy times like the turn of the millenium tbh.
    Sunak's going to be as popular as an ex with the clap if he doesn't get ahead of this cost of living crisis, those April energy price rises are going to screw his chances.

    The fact that's richer than Croesus will also be an issue, fiddling will Rome burns.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    Is there a preference for either or both seen as suitable?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917

    On topic, if Labour want a massive majority in Birmingham Erdington then they should select Dromey's predecessor in the seat, step forward Sion Simon.

    You should read some of his scholarly works.

    Oh no! I have!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    Is there a preference for either or both seen as suitable?
    Problem would be if Truss won on a write in vote
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
    You had the chance to vote OMRLP, and you didn't take it?
    I was doing my best for Dave and George, it was the height of the omnishambles budget and I wanted to show my support.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    edited January 11
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader's redoubt will surely fall.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    edited January 11

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Yup

    image

    On the MV beds, there is a definite slow downward trend

    image

    North East is the only area of England with an upward trend on admissions, no

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    edited January 11

    Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    He'll be back. He wants to have the most championships of anyone in history, and has a good chance to managing it, he's not throwing that away. He's rightly pissed off, but this is just theatrics. The emotion is real, but the talk is no more real than boxing shit talk.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327

    Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    Posted on the previous thread that Hamilton is the GOAT of the modern era, may beat Senna from the Classic era, and behind him you have to go back to Jim Clark or Fangio.

    But if I were him I would quit as well. Think what else he can do with himself. That 8th title may endlessly elude him - quit at the very top.

    Can Mercedes hire Nick de Vrys for his vacant seat? That would be a very tasty pairing him and Russell.
    Ha.

    De Vries is rubbish - there's a reason he's in minnows event. With Lando under long contract, wouldn't be shocked at an emergency recall for good old disappointing Bottas.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
    You had the chance to vote OMRLP, and you didn't take it?
    I was doing my best for Dave and George, it was the height of the omnishambles budget and I wanted to show my support.
    They didn't even get their £500 back. :lol:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Scott_xP said:

    Novak Djoković claims to have been tested positiv for Covid on the 16th of December.
    However the timestamp for the digital version of his positiv test indicates the result may actually be from the 26th of December.
    Our reporting @derspiegel in german
    https://www.spiegel.de/sport/tennis/ungereimtheiten-im-fall-novak-djokovic-wurde-sein-positiver-pcr-test-manipuliert-a-6073206a-f3b1-4836-a823-95bcba05437a

    Is he gong to claim that it is reporting day vs specimen date?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
    You had the chance to vote OMRLP, and you didn't take it?
    I was doing my best for Dave and George, it was the height of the omnishambles budget and I wanted to show my support.
    They didn't even get their £500 back. :lol:
    I know, to be honest I was astonished to learn there were 753 fellow Tories here.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    The membership stage is ludicrous. The leader of the parliamentary party should be voted on by members of parliament who actually know the individuals, and are therefore those that represent constituencies, i.e. a greater electorate. Chair of the party should be voted by members.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
    You had the chance to vote OMRLP, and you didn't take it?
    I was doing my best for Dave and George, it was the height of the omnishambles budget and I wanted to show my support.
    They didn't even get their £500 back. :lol:
    I know, to be honest I was astonished to learn there were 753 fellow Tories here.
    Tory council candidates get more than 753 votes in most Epping Forest wards
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,024
    maaarsh said:

    Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    Posted on the previous thread that Hamilton is the GOAT of the modern era, may beat Senna from the Classic era, and behind him you have to go back to Jim Clark or Fangio.

    But if I were him I would quit as well. Think what else he can do with himself. That 8th title may endlessly elude him - quit at the very top.

    Can Mercedes hire Nick de Vrys for his vacant seat? That would be a very tasty pairing him and Russell.
    Ha.

    De Vries is rubbish - there's a reason he's in minnows event. With Lando under long contract, wouldn't be shocked at an emergency recall for good old disappointing Bottas.
    No, they'd go for Ocon.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    Is there a preference for either or both seen as suitable?
    Problem would be if Truss won on a write in vote
    Lol you’re not going to have tens of thousands of members wasting their vote doing that
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 997
    Happy New Year PBers

    We seem to be having a brisk trade today.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Consoling yourself that barely half your voters want to die in the leaderbunker is hardly good news.

    Neither is the prediction that after his deposition so many of you will see out your years hankering for return of the crown across the water.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Yup

    image

    On the MV beds, there is a definite slow downward trend

    image

    North East is the only area of England with an upward trend on admissions, no

    image
    Bizarre that omicron – despite absolutely huge volumes of positive tests – has presided over a fall in severe (MV) outcomes in absolute terms not just relative terms.

    Funny old business, covid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    The membership stage is ludicrous. The leader of the parliamentary party should be voted on by members of parliament who actually know the individuals, and are therefore those that represent constituencies, i.e. a greater electorate. Chair of the party should be voted by members.
    No, party members do the hardwork of canvassing and campaigning and holding socials etc to keep the party going, they should get a say.

    After all Labour members get a say on who their leader is, MPs get more of a say in who the Tory leader is than who the Labour leader is.

    Party members also elect the LD and SNP leaders too
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Yeah I think Sunak too, Liz is a PM for sunny, happy times like the turn of the millenium tbh.
    Which is why, if she makes the final vote, she's in with more than a chance.

    Ms Living-her-best-life vs. Mr Balance- the-budget-then-reverse-tax-rises?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,813
    It being the case that a Labour victory seems inevitable, this means that the Labour candidate selection is the real contest. Any gossip on that?

    I recall there was some brief upset over the selection for one of the Tory constituencies following a death, with nominations closed before the funeral. And we've seen plenty of shenanigans in Labour selection battles before too.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    edited January 11
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    There will be little love left for him. Much as I despise Trump, Trump is seen as a serious figure by Americans even if many see him as frightening. Another few months of PM Johnson and no-one will see him as a serious figure, because quite simply he is not.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,084

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Yup

    image

    On the MV beds, there is a definite slow downward trend

    image

    North East is the only area of England with an upward trend on admissions, no

    image
    Bizarre that omicron – despite absolutely huge volumes of positive tests – has presided over a fall in severe (MV) outcomes in absolute terms not just relative terms.

    Funny old business, covid.
    Not really bizarre, but rather expected from the fundamentals. Delta and prior variants were diseases of the lungs, omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 11

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Who'd have thought it? I think the reactions of some on here and elsewhere in the media to the news from SA was disgraceful. Its not as if SA has just mud huts and witch doctors, but thats the sneering attitude that came across. That and the bizarre idea that SA people are fundamentally different to British people. Yes the demographics are a bit different, but its not all in SA favour - the high prevalence of HIV for one.

    Its almost as if people didn't want to believe that omicron could be milder, less dangerous, a good thing if it displaces the more dangerous delta.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,888
    On Topic

    LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY

    Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??

    I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority

    In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061
    edited January 11
    :innocent:

    image
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,968
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    Scales. Eyes!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    The membership stage is ludicrous. The leader of the parliamentary party should be voted on by members of parliament who actually know the individuals, and are therefore those that represent constituencies, i.e. a greater electorate. Chair of the party should be voted by members.
    No, party members do the hardwork of canvassing and campaigning and holding socials etc to keep the party going, they should get a say.

    After all Labour members get a say on who their leader is, MPs get more of a say in who the Tory leader is than who the Labour leader is.

    Party members also elect the LD and SNP leaders too
    It doesn't matter that all parties do it, it is fundamentally dumb. The reason we have this problem (I respect that you don't see it as such) is because MPs endorsed him only because they knew he was popular with the membership. They knew he was hopeless. They hoped he might grow into the job, but all their fears have been realised. He is not up to it and it once again proves that the system is flawed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Yup

    image

    On the MV beds, there is a definite slow downward trend

    image

    North East is the only area of England with an upward trend on admissions, no

    image
    Bizarre that omicron – despite absolutely huge volumes of positive tests – has presided over a fall in severe (MV) outcomes in absolute terms not just relative terms.

    Funny old business, covid.
    No, not really.

    image

    We are seeing an decrease in the number of cases required for each hospitalisation among the younger, un-vaxed cohorts. For them it is getting a bit *worse*

    image

    The vaccinated (and especially the triple vaccinated) are seeing a very steep decline.

    Almost as if the boosters had reduced a large number of cases to asymptomatic and reduced the probability of hospitalisation and massively reduced the probability of needing an MV bed....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    57% of UK voters did NOT vote Tory in 2019. Fact.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Yeah I think Sunak too, Liz is a PM for sunny, happy times like the turn of the millenium tbh.
    Which is why, if she makes the final vote, she's in with more than a chance.

    Ms Living-her-best-life vs. Mr Balance- the-budget-then-reverse-tax-rises?
    Sunak is very dull, but the selectorate might decide that dull is what is needed after their disastrous flirtation with "interesting"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    edited January 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    You really don't understand the apocalyptic future you are mapping out for your party.

    I sincerely hope your vision becomes true since, this time around, by the time you ever recover, surely our country will have a fair voting system that will remove forever your unjust electoral advantage.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,945
    Case changes by region by sample date (week to 6/1 vs week to 30/12, which should be living data as includes catch up days after the Bank Holidays)

    National +9.0% (lagging the data by report date)

    Wales -13.5%
    London -8.9%
    East -4.0%
    Scotland +0.7%
    South East +1.3%
    East Mids +10.3%
    NW +12.7%
    NI +13.0%
    SW +18.5%
    West Mids +23.1%
    Yorks +31.9%
    NE +72.5%

    Wales excepted, this is a reasonable approximation of the order regions, as a whole, entered the Omicron wave.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,141

    On Topic

    LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY

    Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??

    I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority

    In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority

    That was going to be my question - an increased majority in absolute or relative terms.

    I'm viewing this as a low turn-out election. However, one possible spanner - this might actually be an ideal Reform target. High leave vote, low turnout, disillusioned electorate and no real reason to come out and vote for Labour.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    57% of UK voters did NOT vote Tory in 2019. Fact.
    And significant numbers of the 43% who did were not proper Tories anyway and can be ignored
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    edited January 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    What supporters? One of his problems is that he doesn't really have any supporters. He doesn't have an ideology. He doesn't have acolytes with a similar outlook etc etc

    He was elected (by the party and then the country) to break the impasse of the 2017-2019 parliament and to get Brexit done. That's it.

    I think this is something Boris has fundamentally failed to understand in his arrogance since the election. His support/majority in 2019 was a mile wide and an inch deep.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,037
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher
    That's highly debatable. If it were true, it says more about the others than him.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 997
    I had to double check on wiki just to be sure - But Dromey's other name was Mr Harperson
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801
    Pro_Rata said:

    Case changes by region by sample date (week to 6/1 vs week to 30/12, which should be living data as includes catch up days after the Bank Holidays)

    National +9.0% (lagging the data by report date)

    Wales -13.5%
    London -8.9%
    East -4.0%
    Scotland +0.7%
    South East +1.3%
    East Mids +10.3%
    NW +12.7%
    NI +13.0%
    SW +18.5%
    West Mids +23.1%
    Yorks +31.9%
    NE +72.5%

    Wales excepted, this is a reasonable approximation of the order regions, as a whole, entered the Omicron wave.

    Will be interesting to follow London

    image
    image
    image
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    FPT:
    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,200
    edited January 11

    FPT:

    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
    I think it's Hunt or Sunak, most likely. Or a total wildcard.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    You really are the 'Comical Ali' of this site but it is not funny anymore
  • This tweet from one of Corbyn's biggest supporters has aged well.


  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 272

    On Topic

    LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY

    Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??

    I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority

    In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority

    Numerical majority might increase a bit to just over ~4000 even if turnout is only 25%. It will be interesting to see if it coincides with the local elections as it it the sort of area Labour will be looking looking to pick up council seats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Which peace-time by-election holds the record for the lowest turnout?

    Manchester Central in 2012, 18.2% turnout.

    I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
    You had the chance to vote OMRLP, and you didn't take it?
    I was doing my best for Dave and George, it was the height of the omnishambles budget and I wanted to show my support.
    You mean you were channelling your inner HYUFD?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467

    On topic, if Labour want a massive majority in Birmingham Erdington then they should select Dromey's predecessor in the seat, step forward Sion Simon.

    You should read some of his scholarly works.

    Can you point us to any particular one we should study?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,402
    edited January 11
    On topic, I am not at all sure the Lib Dems will put in any meaningful effort.

    My reasoning is that there is an all-out election for all 101 councillors in Birmingham on 4 May 2022. At a real push, the Lib Dems have scope to gain eight or nine (highly unlikely but I'd be very surprised if they were targetting to make gains beyond that even on a really good day). More realistically, four gains (50% increase in councillors) would be seen as a very good result. None of those are in Erdington constituency, and I just don't think there is a case to divert resource from local election target wards in the hope of getting to 5%+.

    In Batley and Spen, there was at least a ward (Cleckheaton) where the Lib Dems are strong and there was a point in flying the flag - still lost their deposit and went backwards a bit, but there was some flag flying in a small corner. Erdington is a desert AND has local elections in neighbouring, much better areas in May.

    I'd add that, if I were Labour, I'd look to have the by-election on local election day. It's going to be tough for the Tories anyway in the context, but I cannot see them bothering at all with other things at stake in the West Midlands (where they have the metro mayoralty - although that's not up this year) on that day.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,053
    If Tories think that Johnson is an electoral wonder after beating Livingstone and Corbyn they are deceiving themselves. As the polling showed after GE2019 the big driver of the Tory vote was stopping Corbyn.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263

    FPT:

    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
    Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467

    FPT:

    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
    I think it's Hunt or Sunak, most likely. Or a total wildcard.
    It won't be Hunt, unfortunately. The party is nowhere near ready to choose someone who doesn't at least pay lip-service to the fairies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    You really don't understand the apocalyptic future you are mapping out for your party.

    I sincerely hope your vision becomes true since, this time around, by the time you ever recover, surely our country will have a fair voting system that will remove forever your unjust electoral advantage.
    If we had PR Labour would of course split too with Corbynites forming their own party, the 2 party system would be dead so it would be a completely different scenario
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223
    edited January 11
    cancelled
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.

    Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
    Once again you measure success only on ability to win elections. Even if we make the (somewhat simplistic) assumption that his GE win was mainly due to him, you cannot get past the fact that he cannot govern properly or effectively. He is lazy and incompetent. These recent debacles would not happen under a decent leader. They would have instinctively understood that holding parties was not acceptable. I can never imagine Mrs T allowing such a state of affairs, or even Major or Cameron. Johnson has no morals or genuine authority and consequently does not understand when things are just plain wrong. He needs to go.
  • On topic, if Labour want a massive majority in Birmingham Erdington then they should select Dromey's predecessor in the seat, step forward Sion Simon.

    You should read some of his scholarly works.

    Can you point us to any particular one we should study?
    Of course, from September 2007 when Gordon Brown was thinking of holding a snap election.

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
    Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
    Longest serving secretary of state for health who somehow managed to go straight from that job to heading up parliamentary scrutiny of health without anyone thinking there was a conflict of interest.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    The membership stage is ludicrous. The leader of the parliamentary party should be voted on by members of parliament who actually know the individuals, and are therefore those that represent constituencies, i.e. a greater electorate. Chair of the party should be voted by members.
    No, party members do the hardwork of canvassing and campaigning and holding socials etc to keep the party going, they should get a say.

    After all Labour members get a say on who their leader is, MPs get more of a say in who the Tory leader is than who the Labour leader is.

    Party members also elect the LD and SNP leaders too
    It doesn't matter that all parties do it, it is fundamentally dumb. The reason we have this problem (I respect that you don't see it as such) is because MPs endorsed him only because they knew he was popular with the membership. They knew he was hopeless. They hoped he might grow into the job, but all their fears have been realised. He is not up to it and it once again proves that the system is flawed.
    If Boris was not elected leader Brexit would never have got done and Corbyn would still be leader of the Labour Party if not PM in a hung parliament
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,297

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
    The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
    It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.

    toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.

    The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
    I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.

    Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.

    Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
    I thought Trump would vanish into obscurity, but he managed to stay centre stage by promulgating the Great Election Steal to the credulous and the alienated. But I'm not sure Boris is similarly equipped to maintain a vice-like grip on the Tory soul. Having a talent for doing cheeky PPBs for the RomCom generation probably won't cut it.
  • Oooh.

    Witnesses have told The Times that Johnson and his fiancée at the time, Carrie, who is now his wife, attended the party,

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-secretary-martin-reynolds-will-take-blame-for-downing-street-party-8x53phfhl
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Who'd have thought it? I think the reactions of some on here and elsewhere in the media to the news from SA was disgraceful. Its not as if SA has just mud huts and witch doctors, but thats the sneering attitude that came across. That and the bizarre idea that SA people are fundamentally different to British people. Yes the demographics are a bit different, but its not all in SA favour - the high prevalence of HIV for one.

    Its almost as if people didn't want to believe that omicron could be milder, less dangerous, a good thing if it displaces the more dangerous delta.
    Yup, I said repeatedly at the time that the sneering colonial attitude to what is highly professionalised and respected medical elite in SA was deeply unedifying.

    I also had to repeat the point multiple times that the South Africans were not comparing SA with the UK or indeed any other far-flung foreign land, but with SA itself during the Delta wave, a key tenet of their analysis that was seemingly lost on several ostensibly intelligent PBers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 11

    If Tories think that Johnson is an electoral wonder after beating Livingstone and Corbyn they are deceiving themselves. As the polling showed after GE2019 the big driver of the Tory vote was stopping Corbyn.

    Hence May's landslide win over Corbyn in 2017 of course, oh wait.....
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,200
    edited January 11

    FPT:

    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
    I think it's Hunt or Sunak, most likely. Or a total wildcard.
    It won't be Hunt, unfortunately. The party is nowhere near ready to choose someone who doesn't at least pay lip-service to the fairies.
    But many also won't be that keen on a minority PM either. That leaves no other candidates considered reasonably competent.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,395
    MaxPB said:

    FPT:

    eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
    Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
    How on earth has that guy convinced people he’s competent and a safe pair of hands?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327

    Oooh.

    Witnesses have told The Times that Johnson and his fiancée at the time, Carrie, who is now his wife, attended the party,

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-secretary-martin-reynolds-will-take-blame-for-downing-street-party-8x53phfhl

    That's not new.

    The only remaining question is if there's a photo waiting for a denial to be released.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    On topic, if Labour want a massive majority in Birmingham Erdington then they should select Dromey's predecessor in the seat, step forward Sion Simon.

    You should read some of his scholarly works.

    Can you point us to any particular one we should study?
    Sorry, but I have to do this. Since it defines political arrogance in the face of a failed leader.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

    Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.</>
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 11
    Jonathan said:

    Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.

    No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,366

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
    Yeah I think Sunak too, Liz is a PM for sunny, happy times like the turn of the millenium tbh.
    Which is why, if she makes the final vote, she's in with more than a chance.

    Ms Living-her-best-life vs. Mr Balance- the-budget-then-reverse-tax-rises?
    Sunak is very dull, but the selectorate might decide that dull is what is needed after their disastrous flirtation with "interesting"
    One would hope so. The law of opposites must apply here. There is an opportunity to sideline the culture war frothers and get on with some sensible governance. Surely there're enough in the parliamentary party to get two decent members into the final of a contest?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    edited January 11
    HY, pull back to ConHome before all is lost! :

    - The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.

    - Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.

    - Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.

    - Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party

    - This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?

    - We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples

    - This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.

    - This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does

    - If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street

    - Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.

    - Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque

    - The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.

    - He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him

    - Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!

    - It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...

    - He has to go. It's as simple as that.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,141

    On Topic

    LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY

    Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??

    I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority

    In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority

    Numerical majority might increase a bit to just over ~4000 even if turnout is only 25%. It will be interesting to see if it coincides with the local elections as it it the sort of area Labour will be looking looking to pick up council seats.
    Also the question of what happens if the Tories move quickly against Boris (arguably a faint possibility). If they do, then it may be a new leader gets a bounce. I wouldn't bet on this one until much closer to the election.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,506

    Cases positive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.

    The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.

    Yup

    image

    On the MV beds, there is a definite slow downward trend

    image

    North East is the only area of England with an upward trend on admissions, no

    image
    Bizarre that omicron – despite absolutely huge volumes of positive tests – has presided over a fall in severe (MV) outcomes in absolute terms not just relative terms.

    Funny old business, covid.
    No, not really.

    image

    We are seeing an decrease in the number of cases required for each hospitalisation among the younger, un-vaxed cohorts. For them it is getting a bit *worse*

    image

    The vaccinated (and especially the triple vaccinated) are seeing a very steep decline.

    Almost as if the boosters had reduced a large number of cases to asymptomatic and reduced the probability of hospitalisation and massively reduced the probability of needing an MV bed....
    Arnt the unvaxxed finding it milder too? It was reported very early on it wasn’t getting into lungs as effectively as previous variants?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,144

    Oooh.

    Witnesses have told The Times that Johnson and his fiancée at the time, Carrie, who is now his wife, attended the party,

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-secretary-martin-reynolds-will-take-blame-for-downing-street-party-8x53phfhl

    Laura K had that yesterday
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,790

    Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?

    He had a chance to make some easy money by betting that we would get to 800k cases/day but for some unaccountable reason he refused to take the bet.
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