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LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com
LAB will surely hold Erdington with a much-increased majority – politicalbetting.com
The sad and sudden death last Friday of former prominent trade unionist, Jack Dromey, means there is a by-election in the Birmingham Erdington constituency where he had been the MP since GE2010.
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Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
Scotland too.
Wales going PCR only, though they are keeping the lat flow information in the weeds of their website.
I was one of the 754 people who voted Conservative in that by election.
To paraphrase a great man.
Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.
Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.
Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.
Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.
The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.
The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382
Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.
You should read some of his scholarly works.
However the timestamp for the digital version of his positiv test indicates the result may actually be from the 26th of December.
Our reporting @derspiegel in german https://www.spiegel.de/sport/tennis/ungereimtheiten-im-fall-novak-djokovic-wurde-sein-positiver-pcr-test-manipuliert-a-6073206a-f3b1-4836-a823-95bcba05437a
Casespositive tests now seem to be falling sharply according to the dashboard. Rather surprisingly early. At this juncture, what wave there was looked to be short and sharp and not much of a shock – the numbers on ventilators are lower now than they were before Omicron arrived.The South Africans may well be proven absolutely right.
Even if Galloway stood as an attempted spoiler, I can see Labour winning comfortably.
But if I were him I would quit as well. Think what else he can do with himself. That 8th title may endlessly elude him - quit at the very top.
Can Mercedes hire Nick de Vrys for his vacant seat? That would be a very tasty pairing him and Russell.
The fact that's richer than Croesus will also be an issue, fiddling will Rome burns.
toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.
The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader's redoubt will surely fall.
On the MV beds, there is a definite slow downward trend
North East is the only area of England with an upward trend on admissions, no
De Vries is rubbish - there's a reason he's in minnows event. With Lando under long contract, wouldn't be shocked at an emergency recall for good old disappointing Bottas.
Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.
We seem to be having a brisk trade today.
Neither is the prediction that after his deposition so many of you will see out your years hankering for return of the crown across the water.
Funny old business, covid.
After all Labour members get a say on who their leader is, MPs get more of a say in who the Tory leader is than who the Labour leader is.
Party members also elect the LD and SNP leaders too
Ms Living-her-best-life vs. Mr Balance- the-budget-then-reverse-tax-rises?
I recall there was some brief upset over the selection for one of the Tory constituencies following a death, with nominations closed before the funeral. And we've seen plenty of shenanigans in Labour selection battles before too.
Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
Its almost as if people didn't want to believe that omicron could be milder, less dangerous, a good thing if it displaces the more dangerous delta.
LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY
Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??
I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority
In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority
We are seeing an decrease in the number of cases required for each hospitalisation among the younger, un-vaxed cohorts. For them it is getting a bit *worse*
The vaccinated (and especially the triple vaccinated) are seeing a very steep decline.
Almost as if the boosters had reduced a large number of cases to asymptomatic and reduced the probability of hospitalisation and massively reduced the probability of needing an MV bed....
I sincerely hope your vision becomes true since, this time around, by the time you ever recover, surely our country will have a fair voting system that will remove forever your unjust electoral advantage.
National +9.0% (lagging the data by report date)
Wales -13.5%
London -8.9%
East -4.0%
Scotland +0.7%
South East +1.3%
East Mids +10.3%
NW +12.7%
NI +13.0%
SW +18.5%
West Mids +23.1%
Yorks +31.9%
NE +72.5%
Wales excepted, this is a reasonable approximation of the order regions, as a whole, entered the Omicron wave.
I'm viewing this as a low turn-out election. However, one possible spanner - this might actually be an ideal Reform target. High leave vote, low turnout, disillusioned electorate and no real reason to come out and vote for Labour.
He was elected (by the party and then the country) to break the impasse of the 2017-2019 parliament and to get Brexit done. That's it.
I think this is something Boris has fundamentally failed to understand in his arrogance since the election. His support/majority in 2019 was a mile wide and an inch deep.
My reasoning is that there is an all-out election for all 101 councillors in Birmingham on 4 May 2022. At a real push, the Lib Dems have scope to gain eight or nine (highly unlikely but I'd be very surprised if they were targetting to make gains beyond that even on a really good day). More realistically, four gains (50% increase in councillors) would be seen as a very good result. None of those are in Erdington constituency, and I just don't think there is a case to divert resource from local election target wards in the hope of getting to 5%+.
In Batley and Spen, there was at least a ward (Cleckheaton) where the Lib Dems are strong and there was a point in flying the flag - still lost their deposit and went backwards a bit, but there was some flag flying in a small corner. Erdington is a desert AND has local elections in neighbouring, much better areas in May.
I'd add that, if I were Labour, I'd look to have the by-election on local election day. It's going to be tough for the Tories anyway in the context, but I cannot see them bothering at all with other things at stake in the West Midlands (where they have the metro mayoralty - although that's not up this year) on that day.
We cannot be killed
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Witnesses have told The Times that Johnson and his fiancée at the time, Carrie, who is now his wife, attended the party,
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-secretary-martin-reynolds-will-take-blame-for-downing-street-party-8x53phfhl
I also had to repeat the point multiple times that the South Africans were not comparing SA with the UK or indeed any other far-flung foreign land, but with SA itself during the Delta wave, a key tenet of their analysis that was seemingly lost on several ostensibly intelligent PBers.
The only remaining question is if there's a photo waiting for a denial to be released.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.</>
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.