The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.
That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
How on earth has that guy convinced people he’s competent and a safe pair of hands?
The veneration of Hunt reminds me of the veneration of Kenneth Clarke. And it is for much the same reason.
The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.
That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
How on earth has that guy convinced people he’s competent and a safe pair of hands?
The veneration of Hunt reminds me of the veneration of Kenneth Clarke. And it is for much the same reason.
What, because he is good, but the frothing Tory membership won't accept him?
This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses. Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.
Mind you. Final question. "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?" "Penny Mordaunt."
Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.
Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.
No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have: Sunak Truss Raab Hunt Javid er... Gove um... May ... that's about it, isn't it?
Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.
Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go?
Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.
toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.
The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.
Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.
Nonsense - he will vanish just as May vanished.
He won't, he won a landslide win in 2019 amongst members and the voters at large.
Boris is the most successful Tory leader since Thatcher and his supporters would retake the party soon enough as Thatcher's supporters were in full control of the Tory Party again by the end of 1997 and Trump's supporters are largely still in control of the GOP even after the 2020 defeat
You really don't understand the apocalyptic future you are mapping out for your party.
I sincerely hope your vision becomes true since, this time around, by the time you ever recover, surely our country will have a fair voting system that will remove forever your unjust electoral advantage.
If we had PR Labour would of course split too with Corbynites forming their own party, the 2 party system would be dead so it would be a completely different scenario
The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.
That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
I think it's Hunt or Sunak, most likely. Or a total wildcard.
They will go dull, I'm pretty sure. Such is the pendulum. And that will be great news for Keir, because it will no longer be a relative weakness for him.
Sunak's power would be in perceived economic competence as well as being a "nice chap". That could be enough to steady the ship unless the economy / cost of living take a nasty turn (which they may well) and he has to make make some difficult and nasty-looking spending decisions.
This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses. Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.
Mind you. Final question. "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?" "Penny Mordaunt."
Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.
Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.
No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have: Sunak Truss Raab Hunt Javid er... Gove um... May ... that's about it, isn't it?
Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.
Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go?
Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
The membership stage is ludicrous. The leader of the parliamentary party should be voted on by members of parliament who actually know the individuals, and are therefore those that represent constituencies, i.e. a greater electorate. Chair of the party should be voted by members.
No, party members do the hardwork of canvassing and campaigning and holding socials etc to keep the party going, they should get a say.
After all Labour members get a say on who their leader is, MPs get more of a say in who the Tory leader is than who the Labour leader is.
Party members also elect the LD and SNP leaders too
It doesn't matter that all parties do it, it is fundamentally dumb. The reason we have this problem (I respect that you don't see it as such) is because MPs endorsed him only because they knew he was popular with the membership. They knew he was hopeless. They hoped he might grow into the job, but all their fears have been realised. He is not up to it and it once again proves that the system is flawed.
If Boris was not elected leader Brexit would never have got done and Corbyn would still be leader of the Labour Party if not PM in a hung parliament
The Brexit impasse was a lifetime ago. He did the one thing he was elected to do within weeks of the election, it’s yesterday’s news. Even without covid there was a void in front of him for the next 4 years. Unassailable majority and no idea what to do with it. Covid briefly gave him a purpose, albeit one he didn’t fill all that well. Nothing much left in the locker now that Omicron is bringing the pandemic to an end.
Case changes by region by sample date (week to 6/1 vs week to 30/12, which should be living data as includes catch up days after the Bank Holidays)
National +9.0% (lagging the data by report date)
Wales -13.5% London -8.9% East -4.0% Scotland +0.7% South East +1.3% East Mids +10.3% NW +12.7% NI +13.0% SW +18.5% West Mids +23.1% Yorks +31.9% NE +72.5%
Wales excepted, this is a reasonable approximation of the order regions, as a whole, entered the Omicron wave.
It is difficult to compare Wales, as it is the only part of the UK that includes reinfections. They are excluded elsewhere though make up 15% or so of Omicron.
Things I really have to motivate myself to give a shit about:
1) Djoko's positive test date and the whole outcry about his behaviour; and 2) Whether Boris attended a party or not.
On the first at present there is no global law saying what someone should do about their bodies and if the Australians want to throw him out then good luck to them.
On the second if anyone was at any time unaware of the manifest unfitness of Boris to be PM then they shouldn't be let anywhere near knives and forks.
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
LOL. Who was responsible for successfully beating polio? For creating SEATO? For the successful divorce of the Czech Republic and Slovakia?
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
Boris will be remembered for Brexit, Covid and Lies. Either way the result is the same. A strong electoral start ending in abject, early failure.
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
He didn't get Brexit done. He is still presiding over a huge mess with major questions unanswered and major roles of the state unfulfilled, e.g. inward customs. 4 years after the vote!!
Only Brexiters think Brexit is done. Everyone else knows we've traded an easyish life (where the hard work of trade deals was done elsewhere) with the need to do it ourselves.
And you only need to look at the deals we've signed to see how well it's going - duties on steel exports are 1 example.
This tweet from one of Corbyn's biggest supporters has aged well.
If we were still in the Corbyn era, the big question now would be whether he planned to skewer the PM tomorrow on the issue of lack of support for striking Mexican walnut farmers, or whether he saw the plight of Uruguayan phosphorus miners as the bigger priority for the wider public this week.
If Tories think that Johnson is an electoral wonder after beating Livingstone and Corbyn they are deceiving themselves. As the polling showed after GE2019 the big driver of the Tory vote was stopping Corbyn.
His superpower, like Blair, was making it ok for his opponents voters to vote for him. He may have not been the driver, but he opened the gate. A gate that will now close.
That is an interesting analysis that is probably true. He was helped a lot by Jezza though.
The Conservatives are in dreadful electoral shape and any, I mean anyone who suggest otherwise is living on Mars. If Labour , Lib Dems and Greens get their acts toghether and fight Southend West, as they should, then another citadel will fall, probably to the Lib Dems. If they do not it could still go, to Reform. The Tories problem is Brexit, those who campaigned and led the illusion that prompted the Referendum and the Vote were mainly from a certain part of the party. The centre left of the party needs to reclaim the leadership and start operating sensible, middle of the road policies. Hopefully the membership will realise that in any Leadership vote and surely they will see through smiling Sunak and young Lib Dem suggest abolish the monarchy Truss, indeed the two could cancel each other out allowing another sensibe MP to come through.
The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.
That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
I think it's Hunt or Sunak, most likely. Or a total wildcard.
It won't be Hunt, unfortunately. The party is nowhere near ready to choose someone who doesn't at least pay lip-service to the fairies.
But many also won't be that keen on a minority PM. That leaves no other candidates considered reasonably competent.
Yes, so I think that if the ball comes loose from the scrum in the next month or two, it will be Rishi who picks it up and runs with it. Bear in mind that the Steve Baker machine will be working overtime to ensure there's no ideological back-sliding, and the ultra nutjobs have enough votes, and very good organisation, to effectively decide who the other candidate will be. They'll no doubt be suspicious of Rishi, who does show disturbing signs of being competent and sane, but I think they'd prefer him to Truss, for the reasons laid out in my recent PB article. They won't mind Hunt being the other one in the final two, because they know the members won't go for him.
All bets off if it's not an early contest, though. Ben Wallace might be one to watch...
The Conservatives are in dreadful electoral shape and any, I mean anyone who suggest otherwise is living on Mars. If Labour , Lib Dems and Greens get their acts toghether and fight Southend West, as they should, then another citadel will fall, probably to the Lib Dems. If they do not it could still go, to Reform. The Tories problem is Brexit, those who campaigned and led the illusion that prompted the Referendum and the Vote were mainly from a certain part of the party. The centre left of the party needs to reclaim the leadership and start operating sensible, middle of the road policies. Hopefully the membership will realise that in any Leadership vote and surely they will see through smiling Sunak and young Lib Dem suggest abolish the monarchy Truss, indeed the two could cancel each other out allowing another sensibe MP to come through.
"Dreadful electoral shape" = still Government of the United Kingdom.
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
LOL. Who was responsible for successfully beating polio? For creating SEATO? For the successful divorce of the Czech Republic and Slovakia?
I can't name them either.
Not least because wearing a white coat does not an immunologist make, nor a hi-vis vest an engineer.
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
You have started talking about him in past tense, have I missed something when out today?
Anyway, there’s only the one important thing to discuss today. Should Christians support the cultivation and modification of pigs to be used solely as spare human organs?
The Conservatives are in dreadful electoral shape and any, I mean anyone who suggest otherwise is living on Mars. If Labour , Lib Dems and Greens get their acts toghether and fight Southend West, as they should, then another citadel will fall, probably to the Lib Dems. If they do not it could still go, to Reform. The Tories problem is Brexit, those who campaigned and led the illusion that prompted the Referendum and the Vote were mainly from a certain part of the party. The centre left of the party needs to reclaim the leadership and start operating sensible, middle of the road policies. Hopefully the membership will realise that in any Leadership vote and surely they will see through smiling Sunak and young Lib Dem suggest abolish the monarchy Truss, indeed the two could cancel each other out allowing another sensibe MP to come through.
Only UKIP are standing against the Tories in Southend West on 5th February.
LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY
Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??
I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority
In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority
Numerical majority might increase a bit to just over ~4000 even if turnout is only 25%. It will be interesting to see if it coincides with the local elections as it it the sort of area Labour will be looking looking to pick up council seats.
Also the question of what happens if the Tories move quickly against Boris (arguably a faint possibility). If they do, then it may be a new leader gets a bounce. I wouldn't bet on this one until much closer to the election.
You have been it all day MrEd and frankly I am fed up with it. I have liked nearly all of your posts today. Stop it.
Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.</>
It's like movies, the old classics never lose their appeal.
One returns from the gym to find that two polls have been published suggesting that a majority of respondents think that Johnson should resign, and the Scottish Tory leader has also demanded the Prime Minister go if he was at the disputed party.
The intervention by Ross, in particular, could be significant. If things pan out how most of us think they will and it is demonstrated that Johnson was indeed at the party, then one Conservative MP (and a prominent one at that) demanding he go will provide cover for others to join the chorus of condemnation. If Johnson's troops start to repudiate him in numbers then it's hard to see how he survives.
In other good news, a leading scientist has suggested that the UK is nearer to the end of the pandemic than other countries, and might even be there already (whilst remaining cautious about the potential for trouble from new variants.)
Prof David Heymann, a distinguished fellow in global public health at Chatham House and former chair of the UK Health Protection Agency, said immunity in the UK seemed to have reached a sufficient level to prevent widespread severe illness from Covid, though he stressed it was impossible to rule out more virulent variants in the future.
“Probably in the UK, it’s the closest to any country of being out of the pandemic, if it isn’t already out of the pandemic, and having the disease as endemic as the other four coronaviruses,” Heymann told a Chatham House webinar today.
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
I doubt AUUKUS will survive. Unless whoever is Australian PM at the time Trump returns grovels, Trump will probably rip it up.
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
If Tories think that Johnson is an electoral wonder after beating Livingstone and Corbyn they are deceiving themselves. As the polling showed after GE2019 the big driver of the Tory vote was stopping Corbyn.
Hence May's landslide win over Corbyn in 2017 of course, oh wait.....
I am sorry, that is a nonsense post and you know it. May was heading for a landslide based on the polls that you are normally so good at quoting. There was a combination of the "dementia tax" plus a swingback from people that did not want a huge majority for teh Tories. There was almost an accidental win for Corbyn that probably also accounted for the Tory landslide under The Clown. In 2017 no-one thought Corbyn could win, so thought it was OK to vote for Labour. By 2019 no-one dismissed it as a possiblity which massively helped Johnson.
I do agree there's lots of things making Sunak a favourite. He's developed a reasonably good and expedient relationship with the Brexit headbangers ; he appears competent ; and he also offers a change of "brand" and mood.
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party. Some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots, though, which is why I think may be the reason Hunt is still a realistic second, as the only other leading candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could potentially pick up all sort of voters the Tories haven't had for years.
One returns from the gym to find that two polls have been published suggesting that a majority of respondents think that Johnson should resign, and the Scottish Tory leader has also demanded the Prime Minister go if he was at the disputed party.
The intervention by Ross, in particular, could be significant. If things pan out how most of us think they will and it is demonstrated that Johnson was indeed at the party, then one Conservative MP (and a prominent one at that) demanding he go will provide cover for others to join the chorus of condemnation. If Johnson's troops start to repudiate him in numbers then it's hard to see how he survives.
In other good news, a leading scientist has suggested that the UK is nearer to the end of the pandemic than other countries, and might even be there already (whilst remaining cautious about the potential for trouble from new variants.)
Prof David Heymann, a distinguished fellow in global public health at Chatham House and former chair of the UK Health Protection Agency, said immunity in the UK seemed to have reached a sufficient level to prevent widespread severe illness from Covid, though he stressed it was impossible to rule out more virulent variants in the future.
“Probably in the UK, it’s the closest to any country of being out of the pandemic, if it isn’t already out of the pandemic, and having the disease as endemic as the other four coronaviruses,” Heymann told a Chatham House webinar today.
This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses. Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.
Mind you. Final question. "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?" "Penny Mordaunt."
Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.
Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.
No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have: Sunak Truss Raab Hunt Javid er... Gove um... May ... that's about it, isn't it?
Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.
Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go?
Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
Yeah I think Sunak too, Liz is a PM for sunny, happy times like the turn of the millenium tbh.
Which is why, if she makes the final vote, she's in with more than a chance.
Ms Living-her-best-life vs. Mr Balance- the-budget-then-reverse-tax-rises?
Sunak is very dull, but the selectorate might decide that dull is what is needed after their disastrous flirtation with "interesting"
Good. I want a PM who guides the country, who makes the necessary decisions and who has vision for the future. I have no interest what so ever in whether or not they are entertaining. Indeed very few of the best PMs in the past have been entertaining.
Right now I will settle for dull if it brings with it hard work and at least a modicum of honesty.
If Tories think that Johnson is an electoral wonder after beating Livingstone and Corbyn they are deceiving themselves. As the polling showed after GE2019 the big driver of the Tory vote was stopping Corbyn.
Hence May's landslide win over Corbyn in 2017 of course, oh wait.....
I am sorry, that is a nonsense post and you know it. May was heading for a landslide based on the polls that you are normally so good at quoting. There was a combination of the "dementia tax" plus a swingback from people that did not want a huge majority for teh Tories. There was almost an accidental win for Corbyn that probably also accounted for the Tory landslide under The Clown. In 2017 no-one thought Corbyn could win, so thought it was OK to vote for Labour. By 2019 no-one dismissed it as a possiblity which massively helped Johnson.
Plus the public learned a lot about Corbyn post-2017. Obsessives were on him from the start, but it takes longer for things to filter through to normal folk.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Revolt coming from Scottish Tories on Downing St parties. Douglas Ross expected to do a broadcast round mid-afternoon amid "widespread anger" in the party. Sources say it will be a "straightforward response": "People need answers now. This can’t wait for an inquiry." https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1480850278467440644
Obvs not a real Tory either. Lacks the necessary mussel byssus glue level adherence to the party line. He'll be voting for independence next (albeit only for the SCons, not for the other inhabitants of Scotland).
If Johnson doesn’t go, the Scottish Tories will be looking for yet another new leader soon. No obvious candidates.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
And yet those who did insist that the NHS would cope without restrictions have sort of been proven right, haven't they....
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
Anthony Eden in 1955 increased the Tory vote and won the biggest Tory majority in nearly 20 years. He is not generally described as a successful Tory PM. Such will it be with Boris.
No, Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done and his successful vaccination and booster programme and AUUKUS
You have started talking about him in past tense, have I missed something when out today?
Anyway, there’s only the one important thing to discuss today. Should Christians support the cultivation and modification of pigs to be used solely as spare human organs?
To be fair, that is the future perfect, not the past tense.
I have wondering about New Zealand, as I have friends there (who are stuck there, currently). Can anyone explain to me their exit strategy? Even with boosters they are going to have to suck up levels of cases orders of magnitude higher than those they are used to, the moment they open their borders, one would think? Will the public wear it?
Revolt coming from Scottish Tories on Downing St parties. Douglas Ross expected to do a broadcast round mid-afternoon amid "widespread anger" in the party. Sources say it will be a "straightforward response": "People need answers now. This can’t wait for an inquiry." https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1480850278467440644
Obvs not a real Tory either. Lacks the necessary mussel byssus glue level adherence to the party line. He'll be voting for independence next (albeit only for the SCons, not for the other inhabitants of Scotland).
If Johnson doesn’t go, the Scottish Tories will be looking for yet another new leader soon. No obvious candidates.
That's a thought. Not [edit] Lady Davidson. She's also been scratched off the Xmas Card list.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
I do agree that there's lots of things making Sunak a favourite. He's developed a reasonably good and expedient relationship with the Brexit headbangers ; he appears competent ; and he also offers a change of "brand" and mood.
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party, but some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots. That's why I think Hunt is a realistic second, as the only other candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could pick up all sorts of new kind of voter for the Tories.
I think you're wrong on the ethnic-minority bit. If anything, they'll see that as an advantage. Rubbing the noses of Labour in the morass of their diversity-moralising is good sport, and good politics. So far two women PMs, first Jewish PM, first Muslim Chancellor, first Hindu Chancellor, first Hindu Home Sec, etc etc.
Hell, they've even had a PM from Brasenose. How's that for being broad-minded?
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Bulls**t. You panicked and predicted doom for the species. When any thinking person could see that it was the beginning of the end, the first light at the end of the tunnel.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Hmm. My recollection is that the South Africa Medical Association predicted exactly that, having been through it themselves.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters now go in organically? Will a cabinet minister resign and challenge? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
I have wondering about New Zealand, as I have friends there (who are stuck there, currently). Can anyone explain to me their exit strategy? Even with boosters they are going to have to suck up levels of cases orders of magnitude higher than those they are used to, the moment they open their borders, one would think? Will the public wear it?
Eventually the levees will break, like we have seen in Australia. Omicron is so infectious, you have to go Viagra hard lockdown (Xian is still in this style of lockdown after 3 weeks) to try and supress it once its got in and even New Zealand won't do that.
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
If Tories think that Johnson is an electoral wonder after beating Livingstone and Corbyn they are deceiving themselves. As the polling showed after GE2019 the big driver of the Tory vote was stopping Corbyn.
Hence May's landslide win over Corbyn in 2017 of course, oh wait.....
I do think it is important to note that, for the wider public, 2019 Corbyn was a different proposition from 2017 Corbyn.
He never had good approval ratings, but it's fair to say people were pleasantly surprised by him in the 2017 campaign and, by polling day, he was only slightly underwater, and only slightly behind May, who had run a dire campaign. There was an extent to which people were quite willing to give a bit of benefit of the doubt to a guy who had been pilloried by his own MPs but who, when you actually took a look, appeared at the time to brush up okay and not be the extremist oddball they had been told about.
By contrast, he was absolutely toxic by late 2019 - routinely net negative in the 40s nd 50s, with disapproval at 60-70%. The antisemitism issue was a big one and felt less generated by Labour MPs - there WAS an issue and, at a minimum, he wasn't dealing with it. He had ceased to be the victim and looked like the oppressor, which was a massive shift. And, whilst he clearly still had fans and cheerleaders, it is hard to overstate the toxicity of the man on the doorstep by 2019.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Bulls**t. You panicked and predicted doom for the species. When any thinking person could see that it was the beginning of the end, the first light at the end of the tunnel.
Fuck off old chap. Way before anyone else had even thought of South Africa, I was saying Whoah look this is a new version of the bug which is gonna terrorise the world, just look at the way Sajid Javid's eyes are boggling
And I was absolutely right
It was the course of the variant AFTER THAT that I was unable to foresee correctly
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
In which case I will pile in to the general kicking!
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
Chris stands out as one guessworker who chose to insult those who disagreed with him, as "stupid".
I do agree that there's lots of things making Sunak a favourite. He's developed a reasonably good and expedient relationship with the Brexit headbangers ; he appears competent ; and he also offers a change of "brand" and mood.
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party, but some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots. That's why I think Hunt is a realistic second, as the only other candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could pick up all sorts of new kind of voter for the Tories.
I think you're wrong on the ethnic-minority bit. If anything, they'll see that as an advantage. Rubbing the noses of Labour in the morass of their diversity-moralising is good sport, and good politics. So far two women PMs, first Jewish PM, first Muslim Chancellor, first Hindu Chancellor, first Hindu Home Sec, etc etc.
Hell, they've even had a PM from Brasenose. How's that for being broad-minded?
There are some things of which it is best not to speak in polite society. That one's administration was a huge failure, and his time as Home Sec would startle Priti Patel.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters now go in organically? Will a cabinet minister resign and challenge? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
I suspect Nothing happens and it dies a death*
* this post may be here because there is a habit that the exact opposite of what I post happens.
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
He seems to have forgotten the serial "treachery" of the person he now blindly defends. If he were defending anyone other than Johnson I would slightly be in awe.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
I do agree that there's lots of things making Sunak a favourite. He's developed a reasonably good and expedient relationship with the Brexit headbangers ; he appears competent ; and he also offers a change of "brand" and mood.
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party, but some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots. That's why I think Hunt is a realistic second, as the only other candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could pick up all sorts of new kind of voter for the Tories.
I think you're wrong on the ethnic-minority bit. If anything, they'll see that as an advantage. Rubbing the noses of Labour in the morass of their diversity-moralising is good sport, and good politics. So far two women PMs, first Jewish PM, first Muslim Chancellor, first Hindu Chancellor, first Hindu Home Sec, etc etc.
Hell, they've even had a PM from Brasenose. How's that for being broad-minded?
I agree that might be the impulse from some at the top, but I also think they will have some anxiety that that may not go down nearly so well in the now mythical and partly imagined "Red Wall".
There's also the intersection of being both Southern and from a minority, which is a slightly different issue. Still, I agree that overall he's still the clear favourite, however.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
In which case I will pile in to the general kicking!
LOL. Please don't. You are supposed to be the reasonable one around here. We will be accused of bullying again.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Bulls**t. You panicked and predicted doom for the species. When any thinking person could see that it was the beginning of the end, the first light at the end of the tunnel.
To be fair to @Leon, he shifted his outlook to something rather more balanced later on, but in the early days there was a daily bout of Leonine Hysteria that you could set your watch by.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Naughty naughty Chris. Here you are making the prediction:
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
Chris stands out as one guessworker who chose to insult those who disagreed with him, as "stupid".
Ah, the approach that shouts out "psychological projection"
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Even a Chamberlain comparison is a compliment, since he was a statesman, if a flawed one (although some revisionist history is doing its best to rehabilitate him). The clown never even made it to first base statesman.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
But… looks like you were right to sell your shares, at least in the short term. Bank the win and buy back in now?
I got the first call on Omicron right - I spotted it super early
After that my prognoses got vaguer and less accurate, but respect to those who correctly saw a short sharp spike. Bravo
We all win and lose. And yes I sold my shares at the right time- I just checked my "old" portfolio, I would now be down several percent, a nasty little wound
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Naughty naughty Chris. Here you are making the prediction:
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
= prediction.
Does anyone have an estimate for the peak of infections per day (not tests)?
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Even a Chamberlain comparison is a compliment, since he was a statesman, if a flawed one (although some revisionist history is doing its best to rehabilitate him). The clown never even made it to first base statesman.
Looking forward to seeing the film about by Robert Harris and starring Jeremy Irons.
I have wondering about New Zealand, as I have friends there (who are stuck there, currently). Can anyone explain to me their exit strategy? Even with boosters they are going to have to suck up levels of cases orders of magnitude higher than those they are used to, the moment they open their borders, one would think? Will the public wear it?
V good question. Then again if (substantially) everyone is boostered up they might take the plunge to open up. But IANAE on NZ. I am just an expert on the cases/day predictions of @Chris.
LAB WILL SURELY HOLD ERDINGTON WITH A MUCH-INCREASED MAJORITY
Does that indicate the author believes the LAB majority of 3,601 will increase significantly or that LAB will increase its percentage vote lead 10.2%??
I think without the Party Gate stuff this would be a very tight by election (Dromey surely had a bit of a personal vote) and a drop in Turnout usually cuts a Majority
In current circumstances i would expect a Lab hold but not a much increased majority
Numerical majority might increase a bit to just over ~4000 even if turnout is only 25%. It will be interesting to see if it coincides with the local elections as it it the sort of area Labour will be looking looking to pick up council seats.
Also the question of what happens if the Tories move quickly against Boris (arguably a faint possibility). If they do, then it may be a new leader gets a bounce. I wouldn't bet on this one until much closer to the election.
You have been it all day MrEd and frankly I am fed up with it. I have liked nearly all of your posts today. Stop it.
I've just checked. I've actually liked every single one.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Naughty naughty Chris. Here you are making the prediction:
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
Ultimately, people's reputations just aren't really defined by their penultimate positions. On the flipside of Eden, Churchill had a cabinet career defined largely by failure and f***-up, which is occasionally pointed out but doesn't really undermine his reputation.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
In which case I will pile in to the general kicking!
LOL. Please don't. You are supposed to be the reasonable one around here. We will be accused of bullying again.
Not so sure about that, but nice of you to say (unless you are being ironic). I have got quite a lot of criticism for kicking Malcolm today, even though I can't think of anyone who deserves it more. Plus I really can't help myself.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
See Northern Ireland and the continual threats will they / won't they regarding Article 16.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
Actually although I won't allow him to deny the 800k cases/day prediction my guess is that he is doing what plenty on here do which is to catastrophise as a way of exorcising his own Covid fears and demons.
Comes on PB and says "we're all going to die" and is reassured when people say "don't be so stupid".
Perfectly understandable and he wouldn't be the only one. Nor am I unhappy to be that person (one of them) who helps him through it.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Bulls**t. You panicked and predicted doom for the species. When any thinking person could see that it was the beginning of the end, the first light at the end of the tunnel.
To be fair to @Leon, he shifted his outlook to something rather more balanced later on, but in the early days there was a daily bout of Leonine Hysteria that you could set your watch by.
No, there wasn't. I said this is a scary variant which means we are in for a whole new world of pain. And that was completely correct. In Britain it looks like we will probably escape the worst (probably) because of lots of prior infection over the summer and an excellent booster campaign
For countries less protected (or fortunate) Omicron is a horrible menace. Look at China shutting down again:
Sky News @SkyNews · 2h China: Twenty million under strict COVID lockdown amid fears Omicron could disrupt Beijing Winter Olympics
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
I would also like to give an honorable mention to @NerysHughes, who also called it early and right.
Indeed.
It was Nerys' smart comparison of Dr Angelique Coetzee's response to Delta vs her response to Omicron that I found fascinating. It rather told the whole story.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Naughty naughty Chris. Here you are making the prediction:
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
= prediction.
Does anyone have an estimate for the peak of infections per day (not tests)?
Good question - actually at one point the numbers were heading towards that fabled 800k on tests. But no idea on actual numbers. As we know, if you are +ve on LFT many will not report it beyond their own family or, say, tennis coach.
SirNorfolk Passmore: you are wrong, they will go hell for leather.
You mean LDs in Erdington? No way. Lost deposit, nailed on.
I think the point has been made by OGH that the Lib Dems at the moment the Lib Dems decide whether to go in hard and win, or not to bother at all. That isn't a random decision - they are looking at the potential of C&A or North Shrophire as fertile areas. The prospect in Birmingham Ergington is utterly negligible.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
Yes, tho he died in Nov 1940 in the darkest period (as I was quite rightly taught on PB a few months ago). Poor chap didn't even get as far as D-Day, never mind VE.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
I think he was a fundamentally decent man. Haunted, as many of his generation were, by the horrors of WW1
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
Actually although I won't allow him to deny the 800k cases/day prediction my guess is that he is doing what plenty on here do which is to catastrophise as a way of exorcising his own Covid fears and demons.
Comes on PB and says "we're all going to die" and is reassured when people say "don't be so stupid".
Perfectly understandable and he wouldn't be the only one. Nor am I unhappy to be that person (one of them) who helps him through it.
Comments
Week 1 Projected Admissions: down 5%snip
Week 1 Projected deaths: up 16%
Admissions is disappointing as last week admission fell by 16%
Week on week admissions growth %
Week on Week Deaths growth %
Sunak's power would be in perceived economic competence as well as being a "nice chap". That could be enough to steady the ship unless the economy / cost of living take a nasty turn (which they may well) and he has to make make some difficult and nasty-looking spending decisions.
1) Djoko's positive test date and the whole outcry about his behaviour; and
2) Whether Boris attended a party or not.
On the first at present there is no global law saying what someone should do about their bodies and if the Australians want to throw him out then good luck to them.
On the second if anyone was at any time unaware of the manifest unfitness of Boris to be PM then they shouldn't be let anywhere near knives and forks.
I can't name them either.
And you only need to look at the deals we've signed to see how well it's going - duties on steel exports are 1 example.
Well done Dom!
The Tories problem is Brexit, those who campaigned and led the illusion that prompted the Referendum and the Vote were mainly from a certain part of the party. The centre left of the party needs to reclaim the leadership and start operating sensible, middle of the road policies.
Hopefully the membership will realise that in any Leadership vote and surely they will see through smiling Sunak and young Lib Dem suggest abolish the monarchy Truss, indeed the two could cancel each other out allowing another sensibe MP to come through.
All bets off if it's not an early contest, though. Ben Wallace might be one to watch...
Anyway, there’s only the one important thing to discuss today. Should Christians support the cultivation and modification of pigs to be used solely as spare human organs?
Blistering column by @PhilipJCollins1. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/01/tory-mps-only-have-themselves-to-blame-for-this-farce
(Truss now says she backs a constitutional monarchy and her republicanism was youthful hi jinx)
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1534760/Liz-Truss-BBC-Republican-Monarchy-Queen-Nick-Robinson-VN
The Boris Johnson- Lulu Lytle closing down sale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pct1uEhAqBQ
The intervention by Ross, in particular, could be significant. If things pan out how most of us think they will and it is demonstrated that Johnson was indeed at the party, then one Conservative MP (and a prominent one at that) demanding he go will provide cover for others to join the chorus of condemnation. If Johnson's troops start to repudiate him in numbers then it's hard to see how he survives.
In other good news, a leading scientist has suggested that the UK is nearer to the end of the pandemic than other countries, and might even be there already (whilst remaining cautious about the potential for trouble from new variants.)
Prof David Heymann, a distinguished fellow in global public health at Chatham House and former chair of the UK Health Protection Agency, said immunity in the UK seemed to have reached a sufficient level to prevent widespread severe illness from Covid, though he stressed it was impossible to rule out more virulent variants in the future.
“Probably in the UK, it’s the closest to any country of being out of the pandemic, if it isn’t already out of the pandemic, and having the disease as endemic as the other four coronaviruses,” Heymann told a Chatham House webinar today.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jan/11/uk-covid-live-boris-johnson-conservatives-party-omicron
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
Those are better figures amongst Tory voters than Corbyn at some points had with Labour voters
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1480922753867911179?s=20
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party. Some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots, though, which is why I think may be the reason Hunt is still a realistic second, as the only other leading candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could potentially pick up all sort of voters the Tories haven't had for years.
Right now I will settle for dull if it brings with it hard work and at least a modicum of honesty.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
@turbotubbs is one, IIRC, and there are others
this is a media driven distraction
Don't you speak to real people, at all?
Hell, they've even had a PM from Brasenose. How's that for being broad-minded?
You really have drunk deep of the Kool-Aid.
But… looks like you were right to sell your shares, at least in the short term. Bank the win and buy back in now?
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
He never had good approval ratings, but it's fair to say people were pleasantly surprised by him in the 2017 campaign and, by polling day, he was only slightly underwater, and only slightly behind May, who had run a dire campaign. There was an extent to which people were quite willing to give a bit of benefit of the doubt to a guy who had been pilloried by his own MPs but who, when you actually took a look, appeared at the time to brush up okay and not be the extremist oddball they had been told about.
By contrast, he was absolutely toxic by late 2019 - routinely net negative in the 40s nd 50s, with disapproval at 60-70%. The antisemitism issue was a big one and felt less generated by Labour MPs - there WAS an issue and, at a minimum, he wasn't dealing with it. He had ceased to be the victim and looked like the oppressor, which was a massive shift. And, whilst he clearly still had fans and cheerleaders, it is hard to overstate the toxicity of the man on the doorstep by 2019.
And I was absolutely right
It was the course of the variant AFTER THAT that I was unable to foresee correctly
* this post may be here because there is a habit that the exact opposite of what I post happens.
There's also the intersection of being both Southern and from a minority, which is a slightly different issue. Still, I agree that overall he's still the clear favourite, however.
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
= prediction.
After that my prognoses got vaguer and less accurate, but respect to those who correctly saw a short sharp spike. Bravo
We all win and lose. And yes I sold my shares at the right time- I just checked my "old" portfolio, I would now be down several percent, a nasty little wound
Comes on PB and says "we're all going to die" and is reassured when people say "don't be so stupid".
Perfectly understandable and he wouldn't be the only one. Nor am I unhappy to be that person (one of them) who helps him through it.
For countries less protected (or fortunate) Omicron is a horrible menace. Look at China shutting down again:
Sky News
@SkyNews
·
2h
China: Twenty million under strict COVID lockdown amid fears Omicron could disrupt Beijing Winter Olympics
Meanwhile here's the news editor of ConHome on R4 just now:
"Yes, it absolutely is getting more dangerous for him [BJ] by the day"
"It does look incredibly difficult for him now"
"His base of support in the Conservative parliamentary party is very shallow indeed"
It was Nerys' smart comparison of Dr Angelique Coetzee's response to Delta vs her response to Omicron that I found fascinating. It rather told the whole story.
I think the point has been made by OGH that the Lib Dems at the moment the Lib Dems decide whether to go in hard and win, or not to bother at all. That isn't a random decision - they are looking at the potential of C&A or North Shrophire as fertile areas. The prospect in Birmingham Ergington is utterly negligible.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox
Davis
McVey
Shapps
Brady
Gove
Patel
Zahawi
Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng
Baker
Harper
Raab
Wallace
Barclay
Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt
Truss
Sunak
Projection. Again