I do agree that there's lots of things making Sunak a favourite. He's developed a reasonably good and expedient relationship with the Brexit headbangers ; he appears competent ; and he also offers a change of "brand" and mood.
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party, but some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots. That's why I think Hunt is a realistic second, as the only other candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could pick up all sorts of new kind of voter for the Tories.
I think you're wrong on the ethnic-minority bit. If anything, they'll see that as an advantage. Rubbing the noses of Labour in the morass of their diversity-moralising is good sport, and good politics. So far two women PMs, first Jewish PM, first Muslim Chancellor, first Hindu Chancellor, first Hindu Home Sec, etc etc.
Hell, they've even had a PM from Brasenose. How's that for being broad-minded?
Brasenose has actually produced 4 PMs, as well as Cameron the first Tory Brasenose PM was Henry Addington from 1801-1804, plus Malcolm Turnbull in Australia and John Gorton and one Archbishop of Canterbury in Robert Runcie
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
In which case I will pile in to the general kicking!
LOL. Please don't. You are supposed to be the reasonable one around here. We will be accused of bullying again.
Not so sure about that, but nice of you to say (unless you are being ironic). I have got quite a lot of criticism for kicking Malcolm today, even though I can't think of anyone who deserves it more. Plus I really can't help myself.
No irony.
Malcolm just doesn't help himself or his cause. Unlike you I am actually quite close to Malcolm politically at least as far as Scottish Independence goes. But I wince every time I see his response to the slightest criticism or even to no criticism at all. He seems to have no volume control and that, in my opinion, undermines much of what he says which would otherwise, again in my opinion, be quite sensible.
Mind you he is not alone. Many of us on here have triggers that turn off our brains and turn on our mouths.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
Bulls**t. You panicked and predicted doom for the species. When any thinking person could see that it was the beginning of the end, the first light at the end of the tunnel.
To be fair to @Leon, he shifted his outlook to something rather more balanced later on, but in the early days there was a daily bout of Leonine Hysteria that you could set your watch by.
No, there wasn't. I said this is a scary variant which means we are in for a whole new world of pain. And that was completely correct. In Britain it looks like we will probably escape the worst (probably) because of lots of prior infection over the summer and an excellent booster campaign
For countries less protected (or fortunate) Omicron is a horrible menace. Look at China shutting down again:
Sky News @SkyNews · 2h China: Twenty million under strict COVID lockdown amid fears Omicron could disrupt Beijing Winter Olympics
OH LOOK. It *was* about the Winter Olympics after all. If only those who thought it was a scary new disease and forecast the end of humanity (again) had listened.
- The last 18 months have made the Major government look like a bunch of choirboys.
- Ordinary voters will find it hard to understand why it needs a public enquiry to determine whether or not Boris went to his own party.
- Supporting a serial liar has a cost, Boris is interested in himself, no one else.
- Boris has to go & go now. He's not just destroying his own political reputation, the contamination rub's off onto every Govt Minister forced to go on TV to defend or excuse him & to the wider party
- This is about more than Boris Johnson. When will Conservative MPs and the Conservative party in the country distance themselves from what went on and stand up for what is right?
- We have known for many years that Boris Johnson is a liar with no moral scruples
- This is starting to get the strong whiff of John Major and 1997.
- This man needs to go. Our country and the party will be better off, as soon as he does
- If local Tory MPs are not going to send letters to Brady to fire Johnson then they at least owe it to their constituents to explain why a proven liar should remain in Downing Street
- Actually this is probably worse than the expenses moment. I know it’s historically inaccurate but this is more a “let them eat cake” moment as it establishes a dividing line between those in No 10 and ordinary people.
- Enough. This farce needs be brought to an end. We are now being treated to the spectacle of Ministers having to say we need a civil servant to investigate whether the PM went to a party in his own garden, because apparently the PM doesn’t know. It’s ridiculous and grotesque
- The longer this is allowed to drag on the more it will taint the party. Remove Johnson and be done with it. It’s embarrassing.
- He clearly isn't going to recover from this as he has demonstrably lied about the nature of the gathering. Time for Sunak to replace him
- Certainly it is time to Get Boris Gone before a Landslide Electoral Defeat at the hands of Sir Keir Starmer in 2024!
- It's the drip drip that seems to be most effective at smoking Johnson out. People are onto him...
- He has to go. It's as simple as that.
Very selective and I have added my comments to reject the treachery.
More significant is 45% of 2019 Tory voters think Boris should stay leader to only 42% who want him to go (and some of the latter will already have switched to Labour).
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters now go in organically? Will a cabinet minister resign and challenge? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
Excellent question. The foreign office lingering suggests he is a tough it out type of beast. My take is parties don’t finish him, as the only way they can lead to censure is a vonk - and that’s down to the MPs who may not be ready to do that yet. On the one hand, as days pass without revelations, Boris and Conservative poll ratings will recover a bit, so it depends as well on what further revelations the plotters have coordinated to release to keep the fuckmule going. Just as Mike’s thread said Boris is going to need more than vaccine bounce to turn this around I don’t think the improving covid picture is helping Boris or Conservatives very much, the credit for the covid situation is going to omicron for being milder. Which is fair enough I suppose - besides which jabs come in UK bottles not supplied by Tory Party ones, and a lot of covid success in UK has been down to people offering their arms and complying with lockdowns and restrictions.
Also we now have opposition parties keen to keep Boris in number ten, tainting the cabinet, government and whole party. Not in the interest of Opposition parties Boris goes sooner.
I think it’s going to take a different enquiry into something that requires censure, like parliamentary commissioner investigating cash in exchange for a donors pet exhibition, to force a resignation or vonk.
On topic, we absolutely should not make the mistake of assuming that Johnson would be safe if he faced, and defeated, a vote of no confidence among Tory MPs.
That rule exists to prevent a noisy minority from making continual trouble; it does not give a leader a 12-month free pass.
The rule lies within the control of the 1922 Committee and, as such, can be amended or repealed at the Committee's discretion at very short notice. In other words, if more than 50% openly want Johnson gone, they can force the issue if he proves intransigent.
In reality, events would probably force the PM's hand without the need for rule-tinkering. Theresa May won a Confidence vote among her MPs in December 2018. Six months later she was out.
The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.
That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
How on earth has that guy convinced people he’s competent and a safe pair of hands?
The veneration of Hunt reminds me of the veneration of Kenneth Clarke. And it is for much the same reason.
A love of cheroots?
Hunt and Clarke are very different characters.
People forget, but Clarke was a real heavyweight even before he became Chancellor. He took the Thatcher restrictive practices reform to the white collar unions, with some degree of success. Hunt, for example, never took on the BMA. Clarke did.
Clarke is a charismatic guy and smart guy, who didn't mind a fight, but was probably a little too lazy, and who wore rose tinted spectacles when looking at the EU. He was a great Health Secretary and a very good Chancellor.
Hunt, on the other hand, is a charisma-free zone, who didn't really achieve that much while Health Secretary.
The only thing they have in common is that they are both out of step with the Conservative Party (and the country) on the relationship with the EU.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
I recall too plenty of people pointing to South African data and indicating what was likely to happen. I was fairly sanguine about it then. With our high levels of vaccination plus lots of prior infection Omicron was always likely to boost us quicker down the path to herd immunity.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
In which case I will pile in to the general kicking!
LOL. Please don't. You are supposed to be the reasonable one around here. We will be accused of bullying again.
Not so sure about that, but nice of you to say (unless you are being ironic). I have got quite a lot of criticism for kicking Malcolm today, even though I can't think of anyone who deserves it more. Plus I really can't help myself.
No irony.
Malcolm just doesn't help himself or his cause. Unlike you I am actually quite close to Malcolm politically at least as far as Scottish Independence goes. But I wince every time I see his response to the slightest criticism or even to no criticism at all. He seems to have no volume control and that, in my opinion, undermines much of what he says which would otherwise, again in my opinion, be quite sensible.
Mind you he is not alone. Many of us on here have triggers that turn off our brains and turn on our mouths.
I will try and lay off him a bit. (feeling a bit guilty)
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Govey is one of yours!
Sorry - should have been clear. As always I meant a MP for a Scottish constituency rather than personally by birth. That is the issue I had in mind, thinking about EVEL. Now edited.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I'm on Baker. Base will love him and by all accounts (of those who know him) is a super smart character. Does the country want someone like that? Not sure. Does the Cons Party? No idea but they could do a lot worse. Unlike the present incumbent he is a WYSIWYG kind of guy and jeez we need one of those right now.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Actually lots of us said your doom laden predictions were rubbish - again. Indeed you got quite upset when this was pointed out to you.
To be fair to him, everyone was guessing.
I don't really want to be fair to him. He has a habit of making dire predictions and then denying them. He did the same back in September over Delta and I had to go and dig out his exact quote to show what he had said after he denied it.
And even in December it was pretty clear to most people that this wave was going to be very different to the previous waves but Chris steadfastly refused to believe it.
Actually although I won't allow him to deny the 800k cases/day prediction my guess is that he is doing what plenty on here do which is to catastrophise as a way of exorcising his own Covid fears and demons.
Comes on PB and says "we're all going to die" and is reassured when people say "don't be so stupid".
Perfectly understandable and he wouldn't be the only one. Nor am I unhappy to be that person (one of them) who helps him through it.
lol
Projection. Again
As I said I am delighted, honoured perhaps, to form part of your support group.
Sadly we can't hug it out but know that I'm here for you.
I do agree that there's lots of things making Sunak a favourite. He's developed a reasonably good and expedient relationship with the Brexit headbangers ; he appears competent ; and he also offers a change of "brand" and mood.
There's no other figure that fulfils all those criteria for the Tory party, but some either might not want a minority PM or worry about his appeal to their grassroots. That's why I think Hunt is a realistic second, as the only other candidate considered reasonably competent.
Beyond that...there seems to be a large stretch of open water and potential wildcards, where someone like Penny Mordaunt could pick up all sorts of new kind of voter for the Tories.
I think you're wrong on the ethnic-minority bit. If anything, they'll see that as an advantage. Rubbing the noses of Labour in the morass of their diversity-moralising is good sport, and good politics. So far two women PMs, first Jewish PM, first Muslim Chancellor, first Hindu Chancellor, first Hindu Home Sec, etc etc.
Hell, they've even had a PM from Brasenose. How's that for being broad-minded?
Brasenose has actually produced 4 PMs, as well as Cameron the first Tory Brasenose PM was Henry Addington from 1801-1804, plus Malcolm Turnbull in Australia and John Gorton and one Archbishop of Canterbury in Robert Runcie
Although given Australians change Prime Minister more often than they change their underwear, it's not surprising they've got at least one.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
Yes, tho he died in Nov 1940 in the darkest period (as I was quite rightly taught on PB a few months ago). Poor chap didn't even get as far as D-Day, never mind VE.
At least he had the satisfaction of knowing that Britain hadn't capitulated as quickly as the rest of Europe.
The forthcoming Munich film (of Robert Harris's novel) will paint Chamberlain in a more positive light.
The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.
That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
Hunt is another one of those who wouldn't have fully unlocked down in July and "followed the science" instead and we'd be stuffed as 8-10m more people would have 0 immunity.
How on earth has that guy convinced people he’s competent and a safe pair of hands?
The veneration of Hunt reminds me of the veneration of Kenneth Clarke. And it is for much the same reason.
I think, were it not for his love affair with the EU, Clarke would have been a very fine PM.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
PB-ers are mistakenly deciding that The Omicron Threat is over because it is (hopefully) receding in the UK
This is really not true worldwide
AFP News Agency @AFP · 4h #UPDATE More than half of people in Europe are projected to catch the #Omicron coronavirus variant in the next two months, the WHO said Tuesday, as millions in China faced fresh lockdowns on the two-year anniversary of the world's first Covid death http://u.afp.com/wpBu
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I think there's going to be a lot of anxiety about Truss turning out to be very similar to Johnson. This is why I personally wouldn't put her in my top tier with Sunak and Hunt. Anything's possible if she attracts enough Brexit ultras, however.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I'm on Baker. Base will love him and by all accounts (of those who know him) is a super smart character. Does the country want someone like that? Not sure. Does the Cons Party? No idea but they could do a lot worse. Unlike the present incumbent he is a WYSIWYG kind of guy and jeez we need one of those right now.
Also military, IIRC? Theres a PPE essay to be written where Baker ensured Brexit was able to happen - before the vote, marshalling parliamentary backbench support, and after the vote, ensuring that May's Brexit deals v1-3 didn't get through.
Oh, also, Harper was at BNC - studied under Big Vern Bogdanor.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Govey is one of yours!
Sorry - should have been clear. As always I meant a MP for a Scottish constituency rather than personally by birth. That is the issue I had in mind.
If you would vote some of them in then they might have a chance for leader.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
That Douglas Ross interview was a dagger in the chest from the Scottish Conservatives. Ruth Davidson walked Johnson down an unfriendly alley this morning, Ross delivered the stiletto on live tv just now. https://twitter.com/Torcuil/status/1480929414749773826
They oppose the Tory PM with more vigour and spunk than they can muster in that role in the Scottish Parliament.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Govey is one of yours!
Sorry - should have been clear. As always I meant a MP for a Scottish constituency rather than personally by birth. That is the issue I had in mind.
If you would vote some of them in then they might have a chance for leader.
Quite - statistically it looks perfectly reasonable that it is random. But I wonder if there is a perceived disadvantage within the Conservative Party because of the EVEL issue. Would have been interesting if Ms Davidson had been a MP ...
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
Apparently, according to Alec Douglas-Home, Chamberlain's PPS, who was there when 'Munich' was signed, Chamberlain always thought that Hitler would renege on it, but decided to make a big deal of it (wave it about at the airport etc.) so that when Hitler did renege everyone would know what a shit he was and the Americans might even join in. That throws Chamberlain in a very different light I think.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
That's the revisionist history. It's certainly true that the extra time was vital for the UK - whether or not this was deliberate strategy by the PM, I'm not qualified to judge.
What we all know is that BJ would never have sacrificed his reputation for anything - but he has sacrificed it all the same, for nothing.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I'm on Baker. Base will love him and by all accounts (of those who know him) is a super smart character. Does the country want someone like that? Not sure. Does the Cons Party? No idea but they could do a lot worse. Unlike the present incumbent he is a WYSIWYG kind of guy and jeez we need one of those right now.
Also military, IIRC? Theres a PPE essay to be written where Baker ensured Brexit was able to happen - before the vote, marshalling parliamentary backbench support, and after the vote, ensuring that May's Brexit deals v1-3 didn't get through.
Oh, also, Harper was at BNC - studied under Big Vern Bogdanor.
*google* ah yes he was that also. I wondered why/how @Dura_Ace had some int on him.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
I would also like to give an honorable mention to @NerysHughes, who also called it early and right.
Indeed.
It was Nerys' smart comparison of Dr Angelique Coetzee's response to Delta vs her response to Omicron that I found fascinating. It rather told the whole story.
HOWEVER South Africa IS a different country to places with very limited immunity: either from lack of prior infection or because they have crap vaccines and/or no boosters
Omicron might be the merest sniffle but if it shuts down the Chinese economy for six months or so, we will all feel the pain
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Govey is one of yours!
Sorry - should have been clear. As always I meant a MP for a Scottish constituency rather than personally by birth. That is the issue I had in mind, thinking about EVEL. Now edited.
Pretty sure you're just trolling but I'll play. Being born in a barn doesn't make you a horse. Blair was born in Edinburgh.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I think there's going to be a lot of anxiety about Truss turning out to be very similar to Johnson. This is why I personally wouldn't put her in my top tier with Sunak and Hunt. Anything's possible if she attracts enough Brexit ultras, however.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
I would also like to give an honorable mention to @NerysHughes, who also called it early and right.
Indeed.
It was Nerys' smart comparison of Dr Angelique Coetzee's response to Delta vs her response to Omicron that I found fascinating. It rather told the whole story.
HOWEVER South Africa IS a different country to places with very limited immunity: either from lack of prior infection or because they have crap vaccines and/or no boosters
Omicron might be the merest sniffle but if it shuts down the Chinese economy for six months or so, we will all feel the pain
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Even a Chamberlain comparison is a compliment, since he was a statesman, if a flawed one (although some revisionist history is doing its best to rehabilitate him). The clown never even made it to first base statesman.
Looking forward to seeing the film about by Robert Harris and starring Jeremy Irons.
I am looking forward to it too.
To be fair though, to the Boris Churchill comparison, we know Boris pays no heed to the advisors around him, how was Churchill in this comparison
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Naughty naughty Chris. Here you are making the prediction:
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
= prediction.
Does anyone have an estimate for the peak of infections per day (not tests)?
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Govey is one of yours!
Sorry - should have been clear. As always I meant a MP for a Scottish constituency rather than personally by birth. That is the issue I had in mind, thinking about EVEL. Now edited.
Pretty sure you're just trolling but I'll play. Being born in a barn doesn't make you a horse. Blair was born in Edinburgh.
But that is exactly the point I am making. Being born in Scotland doesn't make you a Scottish MP. It's the constituency that does, and EVEL affects the perception of MPs for Scottish constituencies.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters now go in organically? Will a cabinet minister resign and challenge? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Starmer must think he's in dream land! Hunt's the only one on the list who could even be considered a serious candidate.
PB-ers are mistakenly deciding that The Omicron Threat is over because it is (hopefully) receding in the UK
This is really not true worldwide
AFP News Agency @AFP · 4h #UPDATE More than half of people in Europe are projected to catch the #Omicron coronavirus variant in the next two months, the WHO said Tuesday, as millions in China faced fresh lockdowns on the two-year anniversary of the world's first Covid death http://u.afp.com/wpBu
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Naughty naughty Chris. Here you are making the prediction:
"In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections."
= prediction.
Does anyone have an estimate for the peak of infections per day (not tests)?
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
I think there is a lot of truth in this. There was at least an element of making a virtue of necessity, even if it wasn't as stark as a supreme act of self sacrifice, and there were also elements of vain hope and misplaced trust.
One issue is that Chamberlain died, of cancer, so soon after leaving office. Removed permanently from the scene, there just wasn't the pressure from him or his allies for any kind of critical reappraisal - he was dead and it was rather convenient for his own ministers to say "well, it was Nev's policy".
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters now go in organically? Will a cabinet minister resign and challenge? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Starmer must think he's in dream land! Hunt's the only one on the list who could even be considered a serious candidate.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. I write from the Labour perspective, so I'd be perfectly happy with Truss, McVey or Patel.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Interesting nobody from Scotland. Though that is probably just chance.
Govey is one of yours!
Sorry - should have been clear. As always I meant a MP for a Scottish constituency rather than personally by birth. That is the issue I had in mind, thinking about EVEL. Now edited.
Pretty sure you're just trolling but I'll play. Being born in a barn doesn't make you a horse. Blair was born in Edinburgh.
But that is exactly the point I am making. Being born in Scotland doesn't make you a Scottish MP. It's the constituency that does, and EVEL affects the perception of MPs for Scottish constituencies.
Gove is Scottish not because he was born here but because he grew up here.
If you're trying to make a serious point ; Nobody cares about it.
An ambitious backbencher with support has little to lose and much to gain from publicly declaring that they are seeking 54 letters to challenge. If successful they get to play with the big boys and might just get a job afterwards. The shrewd ambitious cabinet minister might cultivate such a person.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. Then again, I'm not a Tory.
I agree. I think she potentially has quite a lot of extra appeal, particularly for bringing back a certain kind of female voter I don't think Truss would ever be able to do. Alok Sharma is another interesting suggestion for something very different below.
These two are somehow very different in style from most of these candidates.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. Then again, I'm not a Tory.
My gut feeling is she won't stand this time; I am on the mailing list for lots of Tory events and I can't think of one recently that she has been the guest speaker at.
Definitely looking like I'm going to lose my bet with Big Rich on England topping 3k admissions by end of Feb. Currently it looks like hospitalizations are going to peak *earlier* than cases in England, which has really surprised me, but I guess can be explained by the excellent performance of booster doses (and the sudden acceleration before Christmas).
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
Yes, tho he died in Nov 1940 in the darkest period (as I was quite rightly taught on PB a few months ago). Poor chap didn't even get as far as D-Day, never mind VE.
Yeah, I've always wondered if he could have slightly rehabilitated himself slightly in the way Lord Halifax did during his stint as our man in Washington.
An ambitious backbencher with support has little to lose and much to gain from publicly declaring that they are seeking 54 letters to challenge. If successful they get to play with the big boys and might just get a job afterwards. The shrewd ambitious cabinet minister might cultivate such a person.
But if they are unsuccessful and Johnson recovers to fight and win in 2024, before handing over to a hand-picked successor in 2028 or whatever, then they spend a decade watching less able, more loyal colleagues climb the greasy pole while they grow old and bitter on the backbenches.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I'm on Baker. Base will love him and by all accounts (of those who know him) is a super smart character. Does the country want someone like that? Not sure. Does the Cons Party? No idea but they could do a lot worse. Unlike the present incumbent he is a WYSIWYG kind of guy and jeez we need one of those right now.
From his bio I think he'd be quite good at "maths" - which would be refreshing.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
The only slight problem with that was that the Soviets were determined to er... modify the borders of Europe. As they did.
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
PB-ers are mistakenly deciding that The Omicron Threat is over because it is (hopefully) receding in the UK
This is really not true worldwide
AFP News Agency @AFP · 4h #UPDATE More than half of people in Europe are projected to catch the #Omicron coronavirus variant in the next two months, the WHO said Tuesday, as millions in China faced fresh lockdowns on the two-year anniversary of the world's first Covid death http://u.afp.com/wpBu
Even if it is less lethal than flu (please God) that is a lot of people getting notably sick at the same time
It drags out the economic pain too. One wonders what will happen when 200 million Chinese are off work for a week?
It's really hard to foresee what this might do to the world economy. This has never happened before: hundreds of millions of workers, worldwide, all ill at the same time. Even if the illness is mild for the vast majority, if it puts them in bed for a few days that is a lot of work not done
On the other hand maybe the global economy is much more resilient than we fear. Might be fine
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. Then again, I'm not a Tory.
I agree. I think she potentially has quite a lot of extra appeal, particularly for bringing back a certain kind of female voter I don't think Truss ever would be able to. Alok Sharma is another interesting suggestion for something very separate below.
Somehow different in style from most of these candidates.
As a Labour supporter Sharma is the one I most fear. Eloquent and thoughtful. Fortunately that rules him out.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. Then again, I'm not a Tory.
My gut feeling is she won't stand this time; I am on the mailing list for lots of Tory events and I can't think of one recently that she has been the guest speaker at.
Penny is a woman of excellent tastes, she follows me on Twitter for starters.
This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses. Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.
Mind you. Final question. "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?" "Penny Mordaunt."
Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.
Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.
No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have: Sunak Truss Raab Hunt Javid er... Gove um... May ... that's about it, isn't it?
Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.
Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go?
Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.
toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.
The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.
Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.
The Boris Party? Nah. Within two minutes of him leaving you’ll all be desperate to forget him.
Johnson's special sauce has gone rancid and I don't see any potential replacement being able to keep the current Tory voting coalition together. Truss is my dream replacement. The one I fear the most is Sunak as he is a very rare example of a competent cabinet minister, though it is all relative. The only thing Hunt has going for him is that he is not Johnson.
To be fair, it was a notably older cast and the first episode was a good 25 years ago, so not that shocking (aside, of course, from the actress who played Alice and died well before her time).
Revolt coming from Scottish Tories on Downing St parties. Douglas Ross expected to do a broadcast round mid-afternoon amid "widespread anger" in the party. Sources say it will be a "straightforward response": "People need answers now. This can’t wait for an inquiry." https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1480850278467440644
Obvs not a real Tory either. Lacks the necessary mussel byssus glue level adherence to the party line. He'll be voting for independence next (albeit only for the SCons, not for the other inhabitants of Scotland).
If Johnson doesn’t go, the Scottish Tories will be looking for yet another new leader soon. No obvious candidates.
That's a thought. Not [edit] Lady Davidson. She's also been scratched off the Xmas Card list.
Looking at the chinless wonders, borderline alcoholics and assorted idgits in their parliamentary groups, one wonders if they’ll have to plump for a councillor. If they have any left after May.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I'm on Baker. Base will love him and by all accounts (of those who know him) is a super smart character. Does the country want someone like that? Not sure. Does the Cons Party? No idea but they could do a lot worse. Unlike the present incumbent he is a WYSIWYG kind of guy and jeez we need one of those right now.
From his bio I think he'd be quite good at "maths" - which would be refreshing.
I don't get it. @Selebian seems a competent enough maths guy. What are you trying to say.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
That's nonsense. There were several people on here - I was NOT one of them - who pointed to the early SA data and said "that will happen here", it will be a very short sharp spike and then descend rapidly: the SA doctors are right
I was personally unsure, but respect for those who called it right early on
I would also like to give an honorable mention to @NerysHughes, who also called it early and right.
Indeed.
It was Nerys' smart comparison of Dr Angelique Coetzee's response to Delta vs her response to Omicron that I found fascinating. It rather told the whole story.
HOWEVER South Africa IS a different country to places with very limited immunity: either from lack of prior infection or because they have crap vaccines and/or no boosters
Omicron might be the merest sniffle but if it shuts down the Chinese economy for six months or so, we will all feel the pain
The BBC are laying it on with a trowel. That's what happens when you set someone like Nadine Dorries onto them. They don't appreciate it and rightly so. The BBC are rather more trusted than the Tory government.
PS. Angela Raynor's been a bit of a revelation. I'd rate her more highly than any of those on Mortimer's list
This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses. Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.
Mind you. Final question. "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?" "Penny Mordaunt."
Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.
Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.
No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have: Sunak Truss Raab Hunt Javid er... Gove um... May ... that's about it, isn't it?
Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.
Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go?
Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
Who are the anti Trussers going to consolidate on as the second candidate? I’d guess it will be Mr Rabbit in the Headlights himself Saj. Or are the party coffers full enough that they can instead vote through a change on getting rid of the members vote stage.
The party Toffs want a Sunak v Hunt membership vote
It's a shame you can't be in two places at once.
toot-toot : sound the recall! You are needed back defending the bunker at ConHome.
The comments over there are so relentlessly negative that unless you report for duty, the leader will surely fall.
I note more 2019 Tory voters want Boris to stay than go even on this afternoon's poll.
Even if he goes it will remain his party as the GOP remains Trump's party and the Tories remained Thatcher's party after 1990.
The Boris Party? Nah. Within two minutes of him leaving you’ll all be desperate to forget him.
Indeed. Whatever insults one chooses to throw at the Tories, they aren't even a fraction as far down the road to armed insurrectionist, Christian fundamentalist, Parliament burning insanity as the Republicans. The parallels between American and British society are strictly limited.
Definitely looking like I'm going to lose my bet with Big Rich on England topping 3k admissions by end of Feb. Currently it looks like hospitalizations are going to peak *earlier* than cases in England, which has really surprised me, but I guess can be explained by the excellent performance of booster doses (and the sudden acceleration before Christmas).
I really want to know who is leaking all this. Cummings? Rishi's supporters? The Civil Service? It really feels like an orchestrated campaign to get Boris out. They probably have more to come.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
The only slight problem with that was that the Soviets were determined to er... modify the borders of Europe. As they did.
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
Chamberlain wanted to intervene in the Winter War in Finland. Against the Sovs. Like 20 years previously, actually. No wondfer they were a biut twitchy.
I have wondering about New Zealand, as I have friends there (who are stuck there, currently). Can anyone explain to me their exit strategy? Even with boosters they are going to have to suck up levels of cases orders of magnitude higher than those they are used to, the moment they open their borders, one would think? Will the public wear it?
It's either that or they become a sort of human zoo.
The BBC are laying it on with a trowel. That's what happens when you set someone like Nadine Dorries onto them. They don't appreciate it and rightly so. The BBC are rather more trusted than these charlatans.
PS. Angela Raynor's been a bit of a revelation. I'd rate her more highly than any of those on Mortimer's list
Her critical flaw is that many degree-educated PBers can't spell her name.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. Then again, I'm not a Tory.
My gut feeling is she won't stand this time; I am on the mailing list for lots of Tory events and I can't think of one recently that she has been the guest speaker at.
Penny is a woman of excellent tastes, she follows me on Twitter for starters.
Is @Chris sticking with his forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day? Was that what it was?
Certainly on the data I expected this wave to be far worse than it has been, though a forecast of 800,000 positive tests a day is a figment of your imagination, I think. Of course I've pointed out at various times what a given growth rate would lead to in a given time, but only a fool would play Nostradamus in the way you're suggesting.
It was certainly foolish for people to insist in mid-December that everything would be fine, on the basis of the information we had then, because if things had carried on as they were, the NHS would have been overwhelmed very rapidly. I don't believe anyone either predicted the sudden fall in the growth rate or understands why it happened.
Hmm. My recollection is that the South Africa Medical Association predicted exactly that, having been through it themselves.
They are still going through it. Admissions in SA are not declining rapidly. Deaths are still rising
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
Penny Mordaunt? You're a bit short of women, and I reckon she's stronger than the three you've got. Then again, I'm not a Tory.
I agree. I think she potentially has quite a lot of extra appeal, particularly for bringing back a certain kind of female voter I don't think Truss ever would be able to. Alok Sharma is another interesting suggestion for something very separate below.
Somehow different in style from most of these candidates.
As a Labour supporter Sharma is the one I most fear. Eloquent and thoughtful. Fortunately that rules him out.
I think he would make a good leader from what I have seen of him. Certainly seemed to get respect of other countries at COP21. This again would make a nice contrast with The Clown.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
The only slight problem with that was that the Soviets were determined to er... modify the borders of Europe. As they did.
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
Chamberlain wanted to intervene in the Winter War in Finland. Against the Sovs. Like 20 years previously, actually. No wondfer they were a biut twitchy.
That would be the war where a big country decided it wanted a piece of a little country because it.. felt like it.
If Stalin wanted more friends, then a step on that road is playing nice with others.
I really want to know who is leaking all this. Cummings? Rishi's supporters? The Civil Service? It really feels like an orchestrated campaign to get Boris out. They probably have more to come.
It's a broad coalition of everyone who hates and despises Johnson, which is everyone
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
Apparently, according to Alec Douglas-Home, Chamberlain's PPS, who was there when 'Munich' was signed, Chamberlain always thought that Hitler would renege on it, but decided to make a big deal of it (wave it about at the airport etc.) so that when Hitler did renege everyone would know what a shit he was and the Americans might even join in. That throws Chamberlain in a very different light I think.
Hitler then invaded Poland, Chamberlain declared war on him within 48 hours.
The BBC are laying it on with a trowel. That's what happens when you set someone like Nadine Dorries onto them. They don't appreciate it and rightly so. The BBC are rather more trusted than these charlatans.
PS. Angela Raynor's been a bit of a revelation. I'd rate her more highly than any of those on Mortimer's list
Her critical flaw is that many degree-educated PBers can't spell her name.
Red Angela, Your Northern Elegant Redhead
R
A
Y
N
E
R
She is an irritating lightweight. Shouldn't be higher than a shadow junior minister. Labour have much more impressive men and women than her.
The BBC are laying it on with a trowel. That's what happens when you set someone like Nadine Dorries onto them. They don't appreciate it and rightly so. The BBC are rather more trusted than these charlatans.
PS. Angela Raynor's been a bit of a revelation. I'd rate her more highly than any of those on Mortimer's list
Her critical flaw is that many degree-educated PBers can't spell her name.
Red Angela, Your Northern Elegant Redhead
R
A
Y
N
E
R
Obviously i’m not against Northern Accents as I’m intending to be the first Gen Z PM! But Rayner doesn’t convince me in her delivery either to camera or in commons.
And she needs a hair cut. There’s only two places for hair that long, on someone half her age, or someone in the Victorian Era. At the least she should wear it up not down the front like that.
Laugh if you want, but if people can’t make the right hair decisions (like I do) how do you trust them with affairs of state?
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
The only slight problem with that was that the Soviets were determined to er... modify the borders of Europe. As they did.
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
Chamberlain wanted to intervene in the Winter War in Finland. Against the Sovs. Like 20 years previously, actually. No wondfer they were a biut twitchy.
That would be the war where a big country decided it wanted a piece of a little country because it.. felt like it.
If Stalin wanted more friends, then a step on that road is playing nice with others.
Would have been interesting fighting the Sovs and the Germans at the same time.
So what's the next step in this saga? Will the letters go in? Will a minister resign? Is there a modern equivalent of the stalking horse who could break cover and publicly campaign for the 54 letters?
One of the leading cabinet members resigning is currently my guess.
Someone who is lagging behind at the half way stage in the next leadership stakes (i.e. now) but also subtly positioning themselves for a run.
Someone like Gove wouldn't surprise me (but Frost resigning did). However he might not be enough on his own.
As an aside, someone on an earlier thread mentioned that Mark Harper doesn't have red wall credentials and so ruled him out as Tory leader. I'd disagree with that: working class lad from a council estate made good, excellent campaigner and a good communicator. A safe pair of hands. Reminds me of John Major at his height.
If I were betting on next leader, it would go something like this:
Possible runners but unlikely to do well:
Fox Davis McVey Shapps Brady Gove Patel Zahawi Javid (so underwhelming)
People who might surprise:
Kwarteng Baker Harper Raab Wallace Barclay Dowden
The favourites for the last two:
Hunt Truss Sunak
I'm on Baker. Base will love him and by all accounts (of those who know him) is a super smart character. Does the country want someone like that? Not sure. Does the Cons Party? No idea but they could do a lot worse. Unlike the present incumbent he is a WYSIWYG kind of guy and jeez we need one of those right now.
From his bio I think he'd be quite good at "maths" - which would be refreshing.
I don't get it. @Selebian seems a competent enough maths guy. What are you trying to say.
And Steve Baker is too. This is my point exactly. Maths is an asset and Baker looks to have it. Will it count for much if he stands for Con leader? Sadly I doubt it. I don't think the Tory grassroots care very much about Maths. They'll be wanting other things from him.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
The only slight problem with that was that the Soviets were determined to er... modify the borders of Europe. As they did.
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
I think that is skipping a bit, for example the Soviets were the only ones willing to give more than moral support to the Republicans in Spain. Stalin thought after Munich that he couldn't rely on the British and French to fight, hence his own massive rearmament campaign and Nazi-Soviet pact. Of course he wanted to revise the WW1 borders, but didn't take any action to do so until after Munich.
The new Netflix on Chamberlain at Munich is supposed to be more nuanced. I think Tory Britain really didn't want war, not least because they knew it would be the end of Empire.
Eden is remember for Suez and his rift with the US. Boris will be remembered for getting Brexit done
Eden will be remembered more fondly than BoZo
Eden was quite a good Foreign Secretary for example.
If only he hadn't become PM, he'd have ended his career with a stellar reputation.
The piece I'm hoping to finish this weekend says Boris Johnson wanted to be Churchill but in fact he's Chamberlain, getting Brexit done was his Munich Agreement, something he wished to have changed later.
Did Chamberlain regret Munich? My understanding is that he knew exactly what he was doing. He knew Hitler couldn't be trusted. But he also knew Britain wasn't ready. He sold out Czechoslovakia and his own reputation for a vital extra 18 months preparation time.
IIRC he regretted that it didn't stop war between the UK and Germany, he had hoped Hitler would be happy with what he had and the fact plenty of Brits were going to die.
His reasons for Munich were, IIRC
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures - To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland - A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
The big mistake of Munich was sidelining the Soviets, who were the only ones capable of joining the Anglo-French alliance to make it credible. It also rather pushed Stalin who had vigorously opposed Facism into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
The only slight problem with that was that the Soviets were determined to er... modify the borders of Europe. As they did.
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
Chamberlain wanted to intervene in the Winter War in Finland. Against the Sovs. Like 20 years previously, actually. No wondfer they were a biut twitchy.
That would be the war where a big country decided it wanted a piece of a little country because it.. felt like it.
If Stalin wanted more friends, then a step on that road is playing nice with others.
Would have been interesting fighting the Sovs and the Germans at the same time.
My friend, a history graduate, wrote an alternative history on those lines.
Soviets help Germany in North Africa and take Egypt, we have a German-Soviet invasion of Iran, instead of the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, Britain is cut off from the world and oil.
Soviets/Germans land in Ireland and use it as a staging post for the invasion of Britain.
Johnson's special sauce has gone rancid and I don't see any potential replacement being able to keep the current Tory voting coalition together. Truss is my dream replacement. The one I fear the most is Sunak as he is a very rare example of a competent cabinet minister, though it is all relative. The only thing Hunt has going for him is that he is not Johnson.
Really? He ran The Department of Health for longer than anyone ever has IIRC and pretty competently. He didn't clash too much with the vested interests but this was his brief (the Tory detoxification brief re the Holy Cow/NHS). He is highly competent, consistent and honest. Everything the current incumbent is not.
Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.
Isn't it fantastic? Superbly amusing
*cough* I did recommend this on PB some time ago...
It is absolutely brilliant.
The having sex with your mother-in-law up against the window and then her falling out of it mid thrust and scene dying had me laughing so much I needed oxygen.
The BBC are laying it on with a trowel. That's what happens when you set someone like Nadine Dorries onto them. They don't appreciate it and rightly so. The BBC are rather more trusted than the Tory government.
PS. Angela Rayner's been a bit of a revelation. I'd rate her more highly than any of those on Mortimer's list
Her stock has certainly shot up. I don't see her as a PM any time soon, but the moment calls for feisty attack dogs more than judicious mildness, and she's doing that job with verve and enthusiasm.
Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.
Isn't it fantastic? Superbly amusing
*cough* I did recommend this on PB some time ago...
It is absolutely brilliant.
The having sex with your mother-in-law up against the window and then her falling out of it mid thrust and scene dying had me laughing so much I needed oxygen.
I love the running joke about horses. Everyone keeps giving her a pony
Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.
Isn't it fantastic? Superbly amusing
*cough* I did recommend this on PB some time ago...
It is absolutely brilliant.
The having sex with your mother-in-law up against the window and then her falling out of it mid thrust and scene dying had me laughing so much I needed oxygen.
I love the running joke about horses. Everyone keeps giving her a pony
It's genius
I didn't even know they'd done a Season 2. Loved Season 1 though.
Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.
Isn't it fantastic? Superbly amusing
*cough* I did recommend this on PB some time ago...
It is absolutely brilliant.
The having sex with your mother-in-law up against the window and then her falling out of it mid thrust and scene dying had me laughing so much I needed oxygen.
I love the running joke about horses. Everyone keeps giving her a pony
It's genius
Yup.
I binged season 2 of The Great and season 3 of Succession over Christmas, absolute genius both of them.
That scene at the public company meeting to deal with the rape and sexual revelations and someone decides to play 'Rape Me' by Nirvana on loudspeakers was genius, I felt so guilty for laughing.
Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.
Isn't it fantastic? Superbly amusing
*cough* I did recommend this on PB some time ago...
It is absolutely brilliant.
The having sex with your mother-in-law up against the window and then her falling out of it mid thrust and scene dying had me laughing so much I needed oxygen.
I love the running joke about horses. Everyone keeps giving her a pony
It's genius
I didn't even know they'd done a Season 2. Loved Season 1 though.
It's currently available on StarzPlay, if you have Amazon Prime it is 99p per month for the first three months, so you can watch it for 99p if you like, there's plenty on there to watch.
Johnson's special sauce has gone rancid and I don't see any potential replacement being able to keep the current Tory voting coalition together. Truss is my dream replacement. The one I fear the most is Sunak as he is a very rare example of a competent cabinet minister, though it is all relative. The only thing Hunt has going for him is that he is not Johnson.
Really? He ran The Department of Health for longer than anyone ever has IIRC and pretty competently. He didn't clash too much with the vested interests but this was his brief (the Tory detoxification brief re the Holy Cow/NHS). He is highly competent, consistent and honest. Everything the current incumbent is not.
Let's not get carried away. He's better than Johnson but he's also got this on his record:
Surely the more obvious issue is why the Japanese attacked the United States rather than the Soviet Union? I mean if the axis powers were serious as allies.
Johnson's special sauce has gone rancid and I don't see any potential replacement being able to keep the current Tory voting coalition together. Truss is my dream replacement. The one I fear the most is Sunak as he is a very rare example of a competent cabinet minister, though it is all relative. The only thing Hunt has going for him is that he is not Johnson.
Really? He ran The Department of Health for longer than anyone ever has IIRC and pretty competently. He didn't clash too much with the vested interests but this was his brief (the Tory detoxification brief re the Holy Cow/NHS). He is highly competent, consistent and honest. Everything the current incumbent is not.
Let's not get carried away. He's better than Johnson but he's also got this on his record:
A fair criticism that doesn't do him credit, but I still think he is one of the few grown ups available. I don't rate Sunak or any of the other possibles, but even so, even the Downing Street cat would be an improvement on Johnson
Comments
Malcolm just doesn't help himself or his cause. Unlike you I am actually quite close to Malcolm politically at least as far as Scottish Independence goes. But I wince every time I see his response to the slightest criticism or even to no criticism at all. He seems to have no volume control and that, in my opinion, undermines much of what he says which would otherwise, again in my opinion, be quite sensible.
Mind you he is not alone. Many of us on here have triggers that turn off our brains and turn on our mouths.
Also we now have opposition parties keen to keep Boris in number ten, tainting the cabinet, government and whole party. Not in the interest of Opposition parties Boris goes sooner.
I think it’s going to take a different enquiry into something that requires censure, like parliamentary commissioner investigating cash in exchange for a donors pet exhibition, to force a resignation or vonk.
Hunt and Clarke are very different characters.
People forget, but Clarke was a real heavyweight even before he became Chancellor. He took the Thatcher restrictive practices reform to the white collar unions, with some degree of success. Hunt, for example, never took on the BMA. Clarke did.
Clarke is a charismatic guy and smart guy, who didn't mind a fight, but was probably a little too lazy, and who wore rose tinted spectacles when looking at the EU. He was a great Health Secretary and a very good Chancellor.
Hunt, on the other hand, is a charisma-free zone, who didn't really achieve that much while Health Secretary.
The only thing they have in common is that they are both out of step with the Conservative Party (and the country) on the relationship with the EU.
Sadly we can't hug it out but know that I'm here for you.
The forthcoming Munich film (of Robert Harris's novel) will paint Chamberlain in a more positive light.
This is really not true worldwide
AFP News Agency
@AFP
·
4h
#UPDATE More than half of people in Europe are projected to catch the #Omicron coronavirus variant in the next two months, the WHO said Tuesday, as millions in China faced fresh lockdowns on the two-year anniversary of the world's first Covid death http://u.afp.com/wpBu
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1480895071834812420?s=20
Even if it is less lethal than flu (please God) that is a lot of people getting notably sick at the same time
Oh, also, Harper was at BNC - studied under Big Vern Bogdanor.
- Britain wasn't ready. Germany wasn't ready either, but this wasn't known, due to intelligence failures
- To create a definite line in the sand with the guarantee for Poland
- A last try to avoid a World War.
If anyone else had been leader of Germany, there would have no war. Only Hitler really wanted war - the rest of the Nazis and the Generals were afraid of the outcome.
What we all know is that BJ would never have sacrificed his reputation for anything - but he has sacrificed it all the same, for nothing.
HOWEVER South Africa IS a different country to places with very limited immunity: either from lack of prior infection or because they have crap vaccines and/or no boosters
Omicron might be the merest sniffle but if it shuts down the Chinese economy for six months or so, we will all feel the pain
You do the math.
To be fair though, to the Boris Churchill comparison, we know Boris pays no heed to the advisors around him, how was Churchill in this comparison
One wonders what will happen when 200 million Chinese are off work for a week?
One issue is that Chamberlain died, of cancer, so soon after leaving office. Removed permanently from the scene, there just wasn't the pressure from him or his allies for any kind of critical reappraisal - he was dead and it was rather convenient for his own ministers to say "well, it was Nev's policy".
It may just be the one most not Boris like.
If you're trying to make a serious point ; Nobody cares about it.
There is a whiff of Chamberlain at Munich over the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine. Deciding the fate of a country that is not allowed to represent itself.
These two are somehow very different in style from most of these candidates.
Currently it looks like hospitalizations are going to peak *earlier* than cases in England, which has really surprised me, but I guess can be explained by the excellent performance of booster doses (and the sudden acceleration before Christmas).
Actor Gary Waldhorn, known for playing Councillor David Horton in TV sitcom The Vicar of Dibley, has died at 78.
Waldhorn was one of the mainstays of the hit comedy, playing the chairman of the parish council who often locked horns with Dawn French's vicar.
His other TV shows included such 1980s and 90s favourites as Brush Strokes, Lovejoy and Gallowglass.
Waldhorn also enjoyed an illustrious career in the theatre, including with the Royal Shakespeare Company.
He died on Monday, his son said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-59950298
Stalin thought that in Hitler he had finally found someone he could deal with as an equal. Which says quite a bit about Stalin.
On the other hand maybe the global economy is much more resilient than we fear. Might be fine
Eloquent and thoughtful.
Fortunately that rules him out.
To be fair, it was a notably older cast and the first episode was a good 25 years ago, so not that shocking (aside, of course, from the actress who played Alice and died well before her time).
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3736709#Comment_3736709
Happy now?
I agree with him on almost nothing in politics, and yet he presents as a decent bloke, and is clearly highly intelligent.
Hmm.
PS. Angela Raynor's been a bit of a revelation. I'd rate her more highly than any of those on Mortimer's list
Red Angela, Your Northern Elegant Redhead
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If Stalin wanted more friends, then a step on that road is playing nice with others.
The Great Renewed for Season 3 at Hulu
https://tvline.com/2022/01/11/the-great-renewed-season-3-hulu/
Binged watched season 2 last week, utterly bonkers, utterly brilliant.
And she needs a hair cut. There’s only two places for hair that long, on someone half her age, or someone in the Victorian Era. At the least she should wear it up not down the front like that.
Laugh if you want, but if people can’t make the right hair decisions (like I do) how do you trust them with affairs of state?
*cough* I did recommend this on PB some time ago...
The new Netflix on Chamberlain at Munich is supposed to be more nuanced. I think Tory Britain really didn't want war, not least because they knew it would be the end of Empire.
Soviets help Germany in North Africa and take Egypt, we have a German-Soviet invasion of Iran, instead of the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, Britain is cut off from the world and oil.
Soviets/Germans land in Ireland and use it as a staging post for the invasion of Britain.
The having sex with your mother-in-law up against the window and then her falling out of it mid thrust and scene dying had me laughing so much I needed oxygen.
It's genius
Loved Season 1 though.
I binged season 2 of The Great and season 3 of Succession over Christmas, absolute genius both of them.
That scene at the public company meeting to deal with the rape and sexual revelations and someone decides to play 'Rape Me' by Nirvana on loudspeakers was genius, I felt so guilty for laughing.
After Johnson's Benny Hill tribute act a serious grafter might be just the ticket for Tory inclined voters.
That said, Johnson hasn't gone yet, although I've laid Starmer next PM.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2012/may/12/rebekah-brooks-jeremy-hunt-email
2022 just went odds-on