If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I've done something I've never done before !!
No, I have in fact travelled on a Thames Clipper from Battersea Power Station (one modern soulless dump) to Canary Wharf (ditto).
I'm sure @Leon, who seems to have been everywhere, would agree some of the finest views of London are from the river and it's a glorious journey downstream through the capital.
The trouble with the Thames Clipper is, to use another aquatic analogy, it's neither fish nor fowl. As a tourist attraction, it has to compete with all the cruise boats which ply their trade up and down the river ranging from the conventional boats to the speedier and perhaps less comfortable boats.
If it were to be a serious commuter option, there would have to be a lot of changes. First, the speed limit through central London is, I believe, just 12 mph on the water which is fine if you want to admire the view and take photos but not much cop if you want to get somewhere.
Second, there are a lot of stops - if you want to go on something that stops a lot, the Underground will offer that and do it quicker. The third problem is it's fine if you want to go to Battersea Power Station but there's not much service beyond that - there are a few morning and evening peak services to Putney after which there's a gap before another service from Kew to Hampton Court.
Some high-speed limited stop services from east and west into London would help the morning and evening peak journeys leaving off-peak and weekend services for the more leisurely traveller.
To be fair, the boats are lovely and the staff excellent and they do their best - the other thing that struck me on the journey there were plenty of boats from Vauxhall to Tower Bridge but almost nothing east of Tower Bridge - the blocks of flats in the old wharves along Limehouse for example hardly seem to be aware of the river at all which seems odd.
A few years ago I did that from the Royal Wharf (I'd done a marathon swim in one of the old sea docks) to London Eye. As a one-off, great.
A mate lived in Greenwich and he used to use it irregularly - apparently, the boats used to have a bar or at least turned a blind eye to a can or bottle - and he said it was great seeing in a weekend that way. Just watch the world float by.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
AEP predicting doom for the Euro is about as shocking as the sun rising in the East.
AEP saying things won't be bad is I think a sign of the apocalypse in the Book of Revelations.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
Buy bitcoin.
Worse than a pyramid scheme.
Buy gold if you want something real.
Like a pyramid scheme it depends where in the pyramid one is sitting at the time of exit.
Exiting a pyramid scheme at the apex sounds unfortunate, as it's a long way down and they're not designed to be climbed. Exiting anywhere other than at the bottom, indeed, sounds dodgy.
But I wouldn't want to exit a pyramid scheme at the bottom either.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I've done something I've never done before !!
No, I have in fact travelled on a Thames Clipper from Battersea Power Station (one modern soulless dump) to Canary Wharf (ditto).
I'm sure @Leon, who seems to have been everywhere, would agree some of the finest views of London are from the river and it's a glorious journey downstream through the capital.
The trouble with the Thames Clipper is, to use another aquatic analogy, it's neither fish nor fowl. As a tourist attraction, it has to compete with all the cruise boats which ply their trade up and down the river ranging from the conventional boats to the speedier and perhaps less comfortable boats.
If it were to be a serious commuter option, there would have to be a lot of changes. First, the speed limit through central London is, I believe, just 12 mph on the water which is fine if you want to admire the view and take photos but not much cop if you want to get somewhere.
Second, there are a lot of stops - if you want to go on something that stops a lot, the Underground will offer that and do it quicker. The third problem is it's fine if you want to go to Battersea Power Station but there's not much service beyond that - there are a few morning and evening peak services to Putney after which there's a gap before another service from Kew to Hampton Court.
Some high-speed limited stop services from east and west into London would help the morning and evening peak journeys leaving off-peak and weekend services for the more leisurely traveller.
To be fair, the boats are lovely and the staff excellent and they do their best - the other thing that struck me on the journey there were plenty of boats from Vauxhall to Tower Bridge but almost nothing east of Tower Bridge - the blocks of flats in the old wharves along Limehouse for example hardly seem to be aware of the river at all which seems odd.
A few years ago I did that from the Royal Wharf (I'd done a marathon swim in one of the old sea docks) to London Eye. As a one-off, great.
A mate lived in Greenwich and he used to use it irregularly - apparently, the boats used to have a bar or at least turned a blind eye to a can or bottle - and he said it was great seeing in a weekend that way. Just watch the world float by.
I used to use a them a fair bit from Canary Wharf to Putney. All the boats have a bar, toilets, and you can always get a seat.
Quite often, on a Friday when it was hot, I would get the boat home, instead of taking the underground.
Below Tower Bridge they go a lot faster - I'd sit on the back deck, with a beer, watching the world go by at 30+ knots.
They really need to do something about the engines, though - big, clumping, smokey diesels.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Germany will never leave the EU. For a start it profits mightily on effective fixed exchange rates biased in its favour, resulting in a huge transfer of wealth from Southern and Eastern Europe to itself. They would never get away with such economic exploitation in a different context. Secondly, Germany's modern identity is based on being "a good European" as a way to cleanse its guilt of the most horrific genocide in European history.
UKHSA and the Cambridge University MRC Biostatistics unit found vaccines do work to prevent serious illness from Omicron.
One dose of any vaccine was associated with a 35 per cent reduced risk of hospitalisation among symptomatic cases with the Omicron variant.
Two doses with a 67 per cent reduction up to 24 weeks after the second dose and a 51 per cent reduced risk 25 or more weeks after the second dose.
Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation was estimated as 52 per cent after one dose, 72 per cent two to 24 weeks after dose two, 52 per cent 25+ weeks after dose 2 and 88 per cent two weeks after a booster dose.
I think that works out to something like 1/400 hospitalised among the triple dosed, again potentially lower because of prior infection in that group. I'm shocked that my earlier calculation is close to what we actually see.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
We are not going to have hyper inflation because the Bank will reduce the money supply if it feeds through into contract negotiations, rather than being one off supply chain constraints.
Inflation essentially happens when you have too much money chasing not enough goods. In the recent experience of the West this has happened exclusively when there has been too much money sloshing around the system, and so, as you say, the problem can be remedied by taking money out of the system.
It's a different problem if the fundamental cause is shortages in supply, as we have seen recently with natural gas. If we see further disruption to world trade next year, perhaps because of war in Ukraine, or Taiwan, or because of Covid loose in China, then I think we will experience genuine global shortages of many goods. Western countries will end up bidding against each other to secure supplies for their voters. I think this is part of a scenario that could see inflation getting out of control - particularly as we are in an age of increasing denial of harsh realities.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
AEP predicting doom for the Euro is about as shocking as the sun rising in the East.
AEP saying things won't be bad is I think a sign of the apocalypse in the Book of Revelations.
He was remarkably cheerful about the level of progress at COP'21 in Glasgow. Climate change just about solved.
It is about 15 degrees in my garden and the tulips are pushing up...
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
We are not going to have hyper inflation because the Bank will reduce the money supply if it feeds through into contract negotiations, rather than being one off supply chain constraints.
Inflation essentially happens when you have too much money casing not enough goods. In the recent experience of the West this has happened exclusively when there has been too much money sloshing around the system, and so, as you say, the problem can be remedied by taking money out of the system.
It's a different problem if the fundamental cause is shortages in supply, as we have seen recently with natural gas. If we see further disruption to world trade next year, perhaps because of war in Ukraine, or Taiwan, or because of Covid loose in China, then I think we will experience genuine global shortages of many goods. Western countries will end up bidding against each other to secure supplies for their voters. I think this is part of a scenario that could see inflation getting out of control - particularly as we are in an age of increasing denial of harsh realities.
All of those things could cause inflation, but none of them will cause hyper inflation. Also we have elevated price levels from supply chain constraints this year. As those constraints resolve, that will be a deflationary drag that will partially counter balance any new inflationary constraints.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Germany will never leave the EU. For a start it profits mightily on effective fixed exchange rates biased in its favour, resulting in a huge transfer of wealth from Southern and Eastern Europe to itself. They would never get away with such economic exploitation in a different context. Secondly, Germany's modern identity is based on being "a good European" as a way to cleanse its guilt of the most horrific genocide in European history.
One of the problems of the EU is that the German government never admitted the wealth transfer issue. The average German in the street believes that their success is purely down to hard work and wage restraint. And that the troubles of Southern Europe are down to the people being all {insert stereotyping here}
I really should have put money on "when the mild varient turns up covidminiziers/psychotics will use it as evidence that it has all been a big fuss about nothing and we should have never have tslen any minimisation measures" because that was a sure thing.
We're back to March 2020 "no worse than a bad flu season"
Who's saying that? I don't see a single person saying that.
Its much worse than a bad flu season, but the damage from restrictions has been worse than the damage from Covid.
Your hypothetical 1% death rate and no long lasting disruption bar funeral homes is pure wish fulfillment fantasy.
1% death rate is the rough scientific evidence of the death rate for original Covid. Even in countries where its been left to rip and without healthcare systems available to all the death rate has not surpassed that. Not a single nation on the entire planet has surpassed 1% excess deaths since the pandemic began.
I said that I regretted backing lockdowns last year and that in hindsight I think they were a mistake before Omicron evolved, so my opinion being that today is not a reaction to Omicron. EDIT: That relates to @Endillion too.
You posited the infection rate of Omicron with the lethality of Wuhan.
Wuhan only had the death rate it did because it spread as slow as it did.
Faster spread of Wuhan == higher death rate.
Indeed but how much higher would it be? Not everyone is guaranteed to catch the virus even with the higher infection rate.
1% deaths would be 25% more deaths than the highest on the planet has recorded in excess deaths since the pandemic began - and that's a relatively small nation that is an outlier. It would be about 50% more deaths than the second and third highest death tolls on the entire planet.
That seems a reasonably close estimate.
You are not comparing like for like at all. At All. You are trying to compare the results on countries have that reacted to a much much slower spreading variant with the blazing fast speed of omicron that has had its spread slowed down massively due to vaccination and prior infection
Omicron spread + wuhan lethality + no pre warning + no mitigation means everyone gets it, masses die.
And it's entirely possible we do get a virus like that at some point.
Inevitable surely?
This scenario is something that people would just rather not think about so the problem will get shelved, as was the case with the previous 'pandemic preperation plans'. Entrenched optimism. It is why children keep getting born.
If you just accept that we may die for any number of reasons (from bad luck through to disasters) and that the current level of safety is an absurd historical anomaly then life becomes easier to deal with. It also puts the current level of risk associated with COVID in to perspective.
Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Germany will never leave the EU. For a start it profits mightily on effective fixed exchange rates biased in its favour, resulting in a huge transfer of wealth from Southern and Eastern Europe to itself. They would never get away with such economic exploitation in a different context. Secondly, Germany's modern identity is based on being "a good European" as a way to cleanse its guilt of the most horrific genocide in European history.
One of the problems of the EU is that the German government never admitted the wealth transfer issue. The average German in the street believes that their success is purely down to hard work and wage restraint. And that the troubles of Southern Europe are down to the people being all {insert stereotyping here}
The challenge is that the stereotypes are mostly true, even if they are not the main driver of the performance gap. But those stereotypes have more tangible examples than invisible currency pricing so make much more sense to a lay person.
Anyone know how to get a certificate of recovery from Covid? Do you have to have tested positive via a PCR test given by NHS? Will this appear on your NHS App? Thanks
PCR and LFT records appear on the NHS app if you select your pass and click 'show Covid records.'
Where on the App?
When I open my NHS App it says;
NHS Covid Pass View your messages Linked Profiles View your GP health records Oder a prescription
Once you download your NHS Covid Pass, there are a set of links under the QR code including "View Covid-19 records." That should contain every test result that you're reported.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
We are not going to have hyper inflation because the Bank will reduce the money supply if it feeds through into contract negotiations, rather than being one off supply chain constraints.
Inflation essentially happens when you have too much money chasing not enough goods. In the recent experience of the West this has happened exclusively when there has been too much money sloshing around the system, and so, as you say, the problem can be remedied by taking money out of the system.
It's a different problem if the fundamental cause is shortages in supply, as we have seen recently with natural gas. If we see further disruption to world trade next year, perhaps because of war in Ukraine, or Taiwan, or because of Covid loose in China, then I think we will experience genuine global shortages of many goods. Western countries will end up bidding against each other to secure supplies for their voters. I think this is part of a scenario that could see inflation getting out of control - particularly as we are in an age of increasing denial of harsh realities.
The issue is that inflation never went away.
Thanks to China we had an easy ready supply of cheap goods, and thanks to the EU we had an easy ready supply of cheap labour, but we had a limited supply of assets (especially housing) so the price of assets shot up with inflation chasing them while goods remained cheap.
If you owned a lot of assets then that was fantastic for you - but if you needed to rent those assets instead, for instance if you needed to let a roof over your head, then that was a disaster for you.
What we may see in the coming years is a rebalancing as labour and goods supply becomes more restricted so money goes from assets to goods and labour.
I remain to be convinced that's a bad thing, except for the existing class of asset holders.
Loads of really interesting things are going on in the Crypto space, as are all sorts of cons, scams, insider trading, front running etc etc etc.
I see it rather like the really early days of the internet. Total wild west, but there are some really interesting ideas there although few of them are anywhere near fully formed and will topple under their own weight e.g. Ethereum is struggling to scale, resulting in stupid transaction fees.
Don't bet your farm on it to make you an instant millionaire, same way as people lost their shirts over all sorts of crap early dot com companies. But the space has moved on loads from simply the idea of a bitcoin.
For example, NFTs, currently 99.9999999% total worthless bollocks and people are losing stupid amounts of money every day. However, the idea is interesting. The idea you can provably establish the rights to things like images or do you have a genuine ticket.
Same with the idea of Distributed Finance. Within that there are ways to take out instant collateralized loans at reasonable interest rates, deposit for saving etc.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
Germany leaving the EU is something nobody should be rooting for. If that's happening it'll mean something very bad has already happened.
Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Kinabalu, you have long been a voice of sanity on this, so pleased to hear you remain optimistic. I am too, on balance. I do worry about what will happen when the bill for it all comes in. But that is worry, not panic.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
Germany leaving the EU is something nobody should be rooting for. If that's happening it'll mean something very bad has already happened.
The whole of the world economies would have totally imploded like we have never seen before for even the remotest chance that would happen.
Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Kinabalu, you have long been a voice of sanity on this, so pleased to hear you remain optimistic. I am too, on balance. I do worry about what will happen when the bill for it all comes in. But that is worry, not panic.
covid has exposed multiple flaws in our society from the media to the nhs....its left the UK a more divided and angrier place
Anyone know how to get a certificate of recovery from Covid? Do you have to have tested positive via a PCR test given by NHS? Will this appear on your NHS App? Thanks
PCR and LFT records appear on the NHS app if you select your pass and click 'show Covid records.'
Where on the App?
When I open my NHS App it says;
NHS Covid Pass View your messages Linked Profiles View your GP health records Oder a prescription
Once you download your NHS Covid Pass, there are a set of links under the QR code including "View Covid-19 records." That should contain every test result that you're reported.
Many thanks - found it. it shows two negative LFTs done by a private care home. but it doesn't show all the negative LFTs and PCRs done by other private providers (despite them asking for may passport number).
I am assuming, then, that only some tests "count"? If so this has implications when someone needs evidence of positive PCR/Covid recovery.
How does someone get this evidence when they only have a positive PCR result from a private provider? Is the test itself sufficient? Will the NHS recognise this and provide a recovery certificate?
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
Buy bitcoin.
Worse than a pyramid scheme.
Buy gold if you want something real.
Like a pyramid scheme it depends where in the pyramid one is sitting at the time of exit.
Exiting a pyramid scheme at the apex sounds unfortunate, as it's a long way down and they're not designed to be climbed. Exiting anywhere other than at the bottom, indeed, sounds dodgy.
But I wouldn't want to exit a pyramid scheme at the bottom either.
Conclusion - don't get into it to start with.
The guy next door to my parents in Cradley (Malvern) had been the Works Director at a blue chip manufacturer in Worcester until he was let go. Anyway he got involved with an American outfit selling soap called Amway Corp. He invited me to one of their regional presentations at the NEC circa 1990. It was a huge event, and local success stories told their rags to riches tales. It smelled very much like a pyramid scheme to me, and I declined, but he made a lot of money out of it.
Interpretation: two vaccine doses give only mediocre protection vs Omicron after 6 months *even against hospitalisation*. Adding a booster to that, cuts your chances of getting seriously sick by about 4x. Uncertainties are large.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
Germany leaving the EU is something nobody should be rooting for. If that's happening it'll mean something very bad has already happened.
We are back into the scenarios where the Euro has to be split to protect one or more southern EU countries from economic destruction.
And in those scenarios the best fix seems to have been identified as the richer Northern countries leave the Euro rather than expecting Italy / Greece to leave.
Anyone know how to get a certificate of recovery from Covid? Do you have to have tested positive via a PCR test given by NHS? Will this appear on your NHS App? Thanks
PCR and LFT records appear on the NHS app if you select your pass and click 'show Covid records.'
Where on the App?
When I open my NHS App it says;
NHS Covid Pass View your messages Linked Profiles View your GP health records Oder a prescription
Once you download your NHS Covid Pass, there are a set of links under the QR code including "View Covid-19 records." That should contain every test result that you're reported.
Many thanks - found it. it shows two negative LFTs done by a private care home. but it doesn't show all the negative LFTs and PCRs done by other private providers (despite them asking for may passport number).
I am assuming, then, that only some tests "count"? If so this has implications when someone needs evidence of positive PCR/Covid recovery.
How does someone get this evidence when they only have a positive PCR result from a private provider? Is the test itself sufficient? Will the NHS recognise this and provide a recovery certificate?
Regrettably I can't help with that. All of my past tests have been ordered from/reported through the NHS website.
If everything goes tits up, people will sell their bitcoin to pay their rent or keep up with the car payments.
Source: my friends
Yep. As long as Bitcoin is valued in traditional currencies, then there's always a chance of the price crashing. For it really to be the future, it would need people to want to be paid in the stuff.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
Germany leaving the EU is something nobody should be rooting for. If that's happening it'll mean something very bad has already happened.
We are back into the scenarios where the Euro has to be split to protect one or more southern EU countries from economic destruction.
And in those scenarios the best fix seems to have been identified as the richer Northern countries leave the Euro rather than expecting Italy / Greece to leave.
Ultimately that's why Brexit was possible while Grexit wasn't.
Greece were recipients. They needed the money and despite their howls of outrage couldn't say no to any terms and conditions.
Britain was a contributor not a recipient. We were perfectly capable of deciding "we've had enough of this" and buggering off and bugger the consequences.
I can't see the Germans deciding they've had enough, but it's more plausible than the recipients doing so.
(reposted - put in wrong thread) I've set up a monthly donation and would encourage others to consider doing the same. I can imagine that running a website with 1000+ anonymous comments every day is very difficult work and the outlook in terms of regulation and risk is bad given the endless panic driven government policy initiatives about online safety and abuse. I've followed this website for years and have got a lot out of the commentary on it so would like to see it keep going. Cheers.
Right, donation made. Also just popped down to Sale Moor to post a birthday card to a friend with the unfortunate birthday of January 3rd. It feels deceptively far away, but I manage to miss it every year. With the exception of One Stop, every single shop was shut. It's Friday afternoon. Which, I assume, indicates the intention (on the part of the shopkeepers of Sale Moor to seriously push the boat out this evening. There is going to be a lot of over-compensating for a year missed tonight. Which is good news, I think.
'The best way to enjoy New Year's Eve is to watch the London show on TV'
Mayor of London Sadiq Khan says London's "spectacular" fireworks display will "show the defining moments of 2021 and showcase some of the best things to come next year".
Barry Sherman was a deeply unpleasant man. If you look into the reports of his death in enough detail you will understand the nature of some of his associates. I would be very carefully about implying any other company executive is in any way similar to him
Surrogate markers are controversial (in the sense that there is not a consensus about whether they are sufficient, not whether there is anything intrinsically wrong with them) but fundamentally we don’t know why Alzheimer’s develops or even what caused it. The two main theories are a-beta and tau. Surrogate markers allow an accelerated approval path - and possibly the only affordable approval path - for products that could help in a disease that takes decades to play out*. Providing that the safety risks are manageable - and they (ARIA) are just about in the case of Adu - the choice is between no treatment and a treatment which may help. The AdCom was cautious, the FDA chose a riskier strategy.
There’s not a smoking gun here. And deferiprone remains on the market 10 years post approval. Nancy Oliveri has an axe to grind.
* to declare an interest I have a small holding in United Biomedical, the largest shareholder in Vaxxinity. Vaxxinity has a promising phase 2 Alzheimer’s vaccine in development targeting a-beta
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
Crikey! You missed out on the first prediction of yet another country to leave the EU of 2022 by a tiny margin there. Bad luck.
Right, donation made. Also just popped down to Sale Moor to post a birthday card to a friend with the unfortunate birthday of January 3rd. It feels deceptively far away, but I manage to miss it every year. With the exception of One Stop, every single shop was shut. It's Friday afternoon. Which, I assume, indicates the intention (on the part of the shopkeepers of Sale Moor to seriously push the boat out this evening. There is going to be a lot of over-compensating for a year missed tonight. Which is good news, I think.
Unless you posted it through his front door he won't see it until January 5th unless you've managed to catch today's final post in which case he may get it on the 4th.
On the subject of hyperinflation, couldn't you just buy a rental property or some other similar property asset with a large mortgage on a 5 year fixed rate and no early repayment penalty. So if hyperinflation takes off then you just pay off the mortgage with cash? That would be my solution if I had lots of spare cash (which unfortunately I don't).
Competition update: away from PC so a simple confirmation that, barring a massive, pre-Hogmanay party stampede to the booster booth, @Northern_Al will crowned winner of the prize tomorrow… I understand he is looking forward to his personally dedicated copy of Iain Dale’s Prime Ministers with forward by his hero, Boris Johnson.
If everything goes tits up, people will sell their bitcoin to pay their rent or keep up with the car payments.
Source: my friends
Yep. As long as Bitcoin is valued in traditional currencies, then there's always a chance of the price crashing. For it really to be the future, it would need people to want to be paid in the stuff.
And that requires a vaguely steady valuation alongside small transaction costs. Neither of which is something that bitcoin or other similar things offer.
Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Kinabalu, you have long been a voice of sanity on this, so pleased to hear you remain optimistic. I am too, on balance. I do worry about what will happen when the bill for it all comes in. But that is worry, not panic.
Cheers. Yep, the public finances are screwed and the outlook for the economy isn't great but this is a more prosaic concern than the worst fears on Covid looked like. If people do want something to get in a lather about, and why not, it can be stimulating to postulate on the bleak side, I'd suggest Hyper Inflation.
Of all the bad things that can happen with an economy this is the King of the Hill. It destroys the very fabric of society and can lead to a collective nervous breakdown, civil disorder, violent insurrection, genocide and war. And we don't want that.
Right, donation made. Also just popped down to Sale Moor to post a birthday card to a friend with the unfortunate birthday of January 3rd. It feels deceptively far away, but I manage to miss it every year. With the exception of One Stop, every single shop was shut. It's Friday afternoon. Which, I assume, indicates the intention (on the part of the shopkeepers of Sale Moor to seriously push the boat out this evening. There is going to be a lot of over-compensating for a year missed tonight. Which is good news, I think.
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Competition update: away from PC so a simple confirmation that, barring a massive, pre-Hogmanay party stampede to the booster booth, @Northern_Al will crowned winner of the prize tomorrow… I understand he is looking forward to his personally dedicated copy of Iain Dale’s Prime Ministers with forward by his hero, Boris Johnson.
You could save yourself some postage money and just send him the foreward by Boris Johnson.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
Germany leaving the EU is something nobody should be rooting for. If that's happening it'll mean something very bad has already happened.
The whole of the world economies would have totally imploded like we have never seen before for even the remotest chance that would happen.
This is kind of what I'm driving at, yes. Or AfD have seized power. Something bad anyways.
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
When I am feeling blue from Covid and Co - which still happens, tho less frequently of late - I look at a couple of photos of myself. From autumn and winter 2020-21
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
1. Severity analysis is settling around 60-70% reduced risk of hospitalisation with Omicron vs Delta
Regardless of variant, a booster/3rd dose significantly reduces the risk of hospitalisation (85-90% vs unvaxxed)
2. Updated Vaccine Effectiveness analysis
Shows that while protection against *infection* starts to wane quickly for Omicron (from 4-9 weeks post-booster Syringe)
Protection from *hospitalisation* is high 88%. We know from Tcell studies it is unlikely to wane so quickly
-----
ClifNotes, unless we keep getting jabbed every 3 months, we are all getting this, but being boostered up to the gills should give very good protection.
I think 4th jabs will be given to a larger than scheduled group of people in the New Year.
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
When I am feeling blue from Covid and Co - which still happens, tho less frequently of late - I look at a couple of photos of myself. From autumn and winter 2020-21
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
We are not going back there. Frankly, I refuse to do it again. The vulnerable and everyone else has now been thrice jabbed. That was the deal and we are done imho.
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Yes. Covid has been terrible for my elderly mum.
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
Lots of caveats about Christmas testing and backfilling of data, also worth noting that while cases in the young look as if they are fulling there is still a small rise in the older age groups.
This Urban types don't seem to like the wide open spaces. There was a similar article in the Telegraph a couple of weeks ago with woe is me, the countryside folk don't like me....
If everything goes tits up, people will sell their bitcoin to pay their rent or keep up with the car payments.
Source: my friends
Yep. As long as Bitcoin is valued in traditional currencies, then there's always a chance of the price crashing. For it really to be the future, it would need people to want to be paid in the stuff.
And that requires a vaguely steady valuation alongside small transaction costs. Neither of which is something that bitcoin or other similar things offer.
And after a few more utility ransomeware shutdowns, alongside old power stations being recommissioned purely for crypto mining, there’s a non-zero chance that the Fed steps in and bans US banks from sending dollars anywhere close to cryptocurrencies.
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
When I am feeling blue from Covid and Co - which still happens, tho less frequently of late - I look at a couple of photos of myself. From autumn and winter 2020-21
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
We are not going back there. Frankly, I refuse to do it again. The vulnerable and everyone else has now been thrice jabbed. That was the deal and we are done imho.
key thing for next year is that vaccine passports are rolled back and not expanded in use.....otherwise the conspiracy theorists will have been right
Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Can't wait to catch 22. Should be a Heller'va year.
Wales now past England and with a much higher rate of change (+80% versus +30%.)
Caveat: we still haven't had enough time to see the effects of banning parkrun, so I dare say that the position will be transformed in another week or so...
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Yes. Covid has been terrible for my elderly mum.
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
Which gives me to the shove to head to the pain cave for a Zwift outing.
Nothing exciting planned in Chez Urquhart this new year, but now off PB for the foreseeable future as new opportunities won't build themselves and I have stupid amounts to do....
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Yes. Covid has been terrible for my elderly mum.
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
Which gives me to the shove to head to the pain cave for a Zwift outing.
Nothing exciting planned in Chez Urquhart this new year, but now off PB for the foreseeable future as new opportunities won't build themselves and I have stupid amounts to do....
London's massive spike among the young has died away,
And we are seeing more cases among the older groups, across the country
- Admissions are up, as expected from the demographics of the cases. There are some indications that Hospital R has stopped rising, though. - Deaths are still trending down. Though this may change shortly.
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Yes. Covid has been terrible for my elderly mum.
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
notice that with a lot of people on tv who seemed to have aged too...people also look more stressed and dont smile as much
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
We are not going to have hyper inflation because the Bank will reduce the money supply if it feeds through into contract negotiations, rather than being one off supply chain constraints.
Inflation essentially happens when you have too much money chasing not enough goods. In the recent experience of the West this has happened exclusively when there has been too much money sloshing around the system, and so, as you say, the problem can be remedied by taking money out of the system.
It's a different problem if the fundamental cause is shortages in supply, as we have seen recently with natural gas. If we see further disruption to world trade next year, perhaps because of war in Ukraine, or Taiwan, or because of Covid loose in China, then I think we will experience genuine global shortages of many goods. Western countries will end up bidding against each other to secure supplies for their voters. I think this is part of a scenario that could see inflation getting out of control - particularly as we are in an age of increasing denial of harsh realities.
The issue is that inflation never went away.
Thanks to China we had an easy ready supply of cheap goods, and thanks to the EU we had an easy ready supply of cheap labour, but we had a limited supply of assets (especially housing) so the price of assets shot up with inflation chasing them while goods remained cheap.
If you owned a lot of assets then that was fantastic for you - but if you needed to rent those assets instead, for instance if you needed to let a roof over your head, then that was a disaster for you.
What we may see in the coming years is a rebalancing as labour and goods supply becomes more restricted so money goes from assets to goods and labour.
I remain to be convinced that's a bad thing, except for the existing class of asset holders.
Who owns the assets now is somewhat different to Karl Marx's earlier interpretation.
Asset holders these days. Include home owners, and they could get royally ******* as a result of the consequences of inflation.
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
When I am feeling blue from Covid and Co - which still happens, tho less frequently of late - I look at a couple of photos of myself. From autumn and winter 2020-21
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
We are not going back there. Frankly, I refuse to do it again. The vulnerable and everyone else has now been thrice jabbed. That was the deal and we are done imho.
key thing for next year is that vaccine passports are rolled back and not expanded in use.....otherwise the conspiracy theorists will have been right
Unless you're prepared to get Draconian, like it's been suggested might happen in Italy, and effectively make it impossible for most people to survive without vaccine certification (by making them compulsory to access paid employment,) then vaxports are bugger all use for anything.
Most of the remaining refusers are anti-vaxxers or those under the influence of their daft theories. They're not going to be forced to relent by the "threat" of not being allowed to go to the theatre.
The UK's various governments will probably be reluctant to let go of any of the existing restrictions whilst the hospitals are screaming, but hopefully by Easter the vaxport schemes will all be burnt.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
Buy bitcoin.
Worse than a pyramid scheme.
Buy gold if you want something real.
Like a pyramid scheme it depends where in the pyramid one is sitting at the time of exit.
Exiting a pyramid scheme at the apex sounds unfortunate, as it's a long way down and they're not designed to be climbed. Exiting anywhere other than at the bottom, indeed, sounds dodgy.
But I wouldn't want to exit a pyramid scheme at the bottom either.
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
When I am feeling blue from Covid and Co - which still happens, tho less frequently of late - I look at a couple of photos of myself. From autumn and winter 2020-21
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
I signed up for some glider flying lessons in March. Had first one in July. Thought, WTF was I thinking? I've done this before, I know exactly how much less interesting than it sounds, it actually turns out to be. Then remembered cunning plan: get to stage of flying solo, fly plane vertically into ground, from height.
Happily change of meds and long sailing trip in June fixed things, at least so far.
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Yes. Covid has been terrible for my elderly mum.
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
notice that with a lot of people on tv who seemed to have aged too...people also look more stressed and dont smile as much
The last two years haven't been all bad. I started running to cope with lockdown number 1, and am probably in better condition now that when the whole nightmare kicked off.
However, one would imagine that one is the exception rather than the rule.
This Urban types don't seem to like the wide open spaces. There was a similar article in the Telegraph a couple of weeks ago with woe is me, the countryside folk don't like me....
No doubt, that is all the fault of those bumpkin countryfolk ...
I would just like to say that 2021 has been a year where my wife and I have aged somewhat, but have been so grateful that we have avoided covid and very much appreciate our own GP practice who have not only helped us with our ageing but with a wonderful kindness and understanding which we really appreciate in these days of serious stress for them, and sadly increased abuse from some of their patients
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
I think this is something that isn't really been touched on much. There is huge amount of focus on mental health, kids education, how cancer treatments etc are getting dealt with, but I have seen the same with my own parents, COVID has aged significantly the past year or so as they have restricted many of their usual activities.
Yes. Covid has been terrible for my elderly mum.
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
notice that with a lot of people on tv who seemed to have aged too...people also look more stressed and dont smile as much
Yep. Noticed that too (not least with myself). In fairness though, the two things (being stressed and general glumness, and visible ageing) have always gone hand in hand.
Comments
A mate lived in Greenwich and he used to use it irregularly - apparently, the boats used to have a bar or at least turned a blind eye to a can or bottle - and he said it was great seeing in a weekend that way. Just watch the world float by.
Week 52 Admission Projection: 7620 (down 5.5%)
Week 52 Deaths Projection: 703 (up 19%)
Currently Ventilated: 3.3%
Currently Oxygentated: 15.2%
AEP saying things won't be bad is I think a sign of the apocalypse in the Book of Revelations.
But I wouldn't want to exit a pyramid scheme at the bottom either.
Conclusion - don't get into it to start with.
Quite often, on a Friday when it was hot, I would get the boat home, instead of taking the underground.
Below Tower Bridge they go a lot faster - I'd sit on the back deck, with a beer, watching the world go by at 30+ knots.
They really need to do something about the engines, though - big, clumping, smokey diesels.
It's a different problem if the fundamental cause is shortages in supply, as we have seen recently with natural gas. If we see further disruption to world trade next year, perhaps because of war in Ukraine, or Taiwan, or because of Covid loose in China, then I think we will experience genuine global shortages of many goods. Western countries will end up bidding against each other to secure supplies for their voters. I think this is part of a scenario that could see inflation getting out of control - particularly as we are in an age of increasing denial of harsh realities.
It is about 15 degrees in my garden and the tulips are pushing up...
If you just accept that we may die for any number of reasons (from bad luck through to disasters) and that the current level of safety is an absurd historical anomaly then life becomes easier to deal with. It also puts the current level of risk associated with COVID in to perspective.
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Thanks to China we had an easy ready supply of cheap goods, and thanks to the EU we had an easy ready supply of cheap labour, but we had a limited supply of assets (especially housing) so the price of assets shot up with inflation chasing them while goods remained cheap.
If you owned a lot of assets then that was fantastic for you - but if you needed to rent those assets instead, for instance if you needed to let a roof over your head, then that was a disaster for you.
What we may see in the coming years is a rebalancing as labour and goods supply becomes more restricted so money goes from assets to goods and labour.
I remain to be convinced that's a bad thing, except for the existing class of asset holders.
I see it rather like the really early days of the internet. Total wild west, but there are some really interesting ideas there although few of them are anywhere near fully formed and will topple under their own weight e.g. Ethereum is struggling to scale, resulting in stupid transaction fees.
Don't bet your farm on it to make you an instant millionaire, same way as people lost their shirts over all sorts of crap early dot com companies. But the space has moved on loads from simply the idea of a bitcoin.
For example, NFTs, currently 99.9999999% total worthless bollocks and people are losing stupid amounts of money every day. However, the idea is interesting. The idea you can provably establish the rights to things like images or do you have a genuine ticket.
Same with the idea of Distributed Finance. Within that there are ways to take out instant collateralized loans at reasonable interest rates, deposit for saving etc.
I do worry about what will happen when the bill for it all comes in. But that is worry, not panic.
I am going 210k...
I am assuming, then, that only some tests "count"? If so this has implications when someone needs evidence of positive PCR/Covid recovery.
How does someone get this evidence when they only have a positive PCR result from a private provider? Is the test itself sufficient? Will the NHS recognise this and provide a recovery certificate?
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
Interpretation: two vaccine doses give only mediocre protection vs Omicron after 6 months *even against hospitalisation*.
Adding a booster to that, cuts your chances of getting seriously sick by about 4x.
Uncertainties are large.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1476935277457383427?s=20
We are all going to be getting 4th shots.
And in those scenarios the best fix seems to have been identified as the richer Northern countries leave the Euro rather than expecting Italy / Greece to leave.
Source: my friends
The Omicronpanic isn't properly over yet. Can't there be one trouser wetting disaster flap at a time?
2,370 England admissions for the 29th.
I think 1.5-1.6 million tests a day is the ceiling.
By specimen date, 27-28-29th could up end 200k.
Greece were recipients. They needed the money and despite their howls of outrage couldn't say no to any terms and conditions.
Britain was a contributor not a recipient. We were perfectly capable of deciding "we've had enough of this" and buggering off and bugger the consequences.
I can't see the Germans deciding they've had enough, but it's more plausible than the recipients doing so.
I've set up a monthly donation and would encourage others to consider doing the same. I can imagine that running a website with 1000+ anonymous comments every day is very difficult work and the outlook in terms of regulation and risk is bad given the endless panic driven government policy initiatives about online safety and abuse. I've followed this website for years and have got a lot out of the commentary on it so would like to see it keep going. Cheers.
Also just popped down to Sale Moor to post a birthday card to a friend with the unfortunate birthday of January 3rd. It feels deceptively far away, but I manage to miss it every year. With the exception of One Stop, every single shop was shut. It's Friday afternoon. Which, I assume, indicates the intention (on the part of the shopkeepers of Sale Moor to seriously push the boat out this evening. There is going to be a lot of over-compensating for a year missed tonight.
Which is good news, I think.
Barry Sherman was a deeply unpleasant man. If you look into the reports of his death in enough detail you will understand the nature of some of his associates. I would be very carefully about implying any other company executive is in any way similar to him
Surrogate markers are controversial (in the sense that there is not a consensus about whether they are sufficient, not whether there is anything intrinsically wrong with them) but fundamentally we don’t know why Alzheimer’s develops or even what caused it. The two main theories are a-beta and tau. Surrogate markers allow an accelerated approval path - and possibly the only affordable approval path - for products that could help in a disease that takes decades to play out*. Providing that the safety risks are manageable - and they (ARIA) are just about in the case of Adu - the choice is between no treatment and a treatment which may help. The AdCom was cautious, the FDA chose a riskier strategy.
There’s not a smoking gun here. And deferiprone remains on the market 10 years post approval. Nancy Oliveri has an axe to grind.
* to declare an interest I have a small holding in United Biomedical, the largest shareholder in Vaxxinity. Vaxxinity has a promising phase 2 Alzheimer’s vaccine in development targeting a-beta
You missed out on the first prediction of yet another country to leave the EU of 2022 by a tiny margin there.
Bad luck.
Of all the bad things that can happen with an economy this is the King of the Hill. It destroys the very fabric of society and can lead to a collective nervous breakdown, civil disorder, violent insurrection, genocide and war. And we don't want that.
I'm near The Bridge pub on Dane Rd
Our youngest son married his partner of 11 years in mid Summer and we have enjoyed sleepovers for their two children, 10 and 8 and our eldest grandchild started at Leeds University on a five year course studying Italy and Japan, their languages and culture. Additionally our son volunteered for the RNLI and achieved seagoing certification in November.
Unfortunately our eldest son in Vancouver has suffered serious mental health issues throughout 2021 and we only hope 2022 is a better year for him and his wife
I want to take this opportunity of wishing each and everyone a happy new year and hope we all see a happier 2022
I also want to thank Mike and others for their efforts and have just made a donation
Maybe tonight's London celebrations will be well received by a very weary nation
@IshmaelZ
Just 9.8 million left to do....
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
Updating Vaccine Effectiveness & Severity Analysis
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1476930728688451584?s=20
1. Severity analysis is settling around 60-70% reduced risk of hospitalisation with Omicron vs Delta
Regardless of variant, a booster/3rd dose significantly reduces the risk of hospitalisation (85-90% vs unvaxxed)
2. Updated Vaccine Effectiveness analysis
Shows that while protection against *infection* starts to wane quickly for Omicron (from 4-9 weeks post-booster Syringe)
Protection from *hospitalisation* is high 88%. We know from Tcell studies it is unlikely to wane so quickly
-----
ClifNotes, unless we keep getting jabbed every 3 months, we are all getting this, but being boostered up to the gills should give very good protection.
I think 4th jabs will be given to a larger than scheduled group of people in the New Year.
I moved to the coast for a better life – now I’m back in London where I belong
Laura Barton
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/28/moved-coast-better-life-london-capital
On the other hand, Covid has aged almost everyone I know over 30. They nearly all look 5 years older, sometimes more
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London
Lots of caveats about Christmas testing and backfilling of data, also worth noting that while cases in the young look as if they are fulling there is still a small rise in the older age groups.
Northern Ireland: 1.37%
Wales: 1.27%
England: 1.26%
Scotland: 1.10%
Wales now past England and with a much higher rate of change (+80% versus +30%.)
Caveat: we still haven't had enough time to see the effects of banning parkrun, so I dare say that the position will be transformed in another week or so...
Nothing exciting planned in Chez Urquhart this new year, but now off PB for the foreseeable future as new opportunities won't build themselves and I have stupid amounts to do....
With that, Happy New Year everybody.
- Cases rising. UK case R has stabilised -
London's massive spike among the young has died away,
And we are seeing more cases among the older groups, across the country
- Admissions are up, as expected from the demographics of the cases. There are some indications that Hospital R has stopped rising, though.
- Deaths are still trending down. Though this may change shortly.
Asset holders these days. Include home owners, and they could get royally ******* as a result of the consequences of inflation.
Try Shellness on the Isle of Sheppey for something a bit more vigorous than Hampstead Heath.
Most of the remaining refusers are anti-vaxxers or those under the influence of their daft theories. They're not going to be forced to relent by the "threat" of not being allowed to go to the theatre.
The UK's various governments will probably be reluctant to let go of any of the existing restrictions whilst the hospitals are screaming, but hopefully by Easter the vaxport schemes will all be burnt.
Happily change of meds and long sailing trip in June fixed things, at least so far.
However, one would imagine that one is the exception rather than the rule.