Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Can't wait to catch 22. Should be a Heller'va year.
Nice one! That is a major major major major league crack.
Off to a house party shortly so will likely feel worse than a covid sufferer tomorrow - everyone going has sent LFT cartridge photos alongside photos of their watches showing date onto the WhatsApp group which was good but very strange having to do that before a party!
So wishing everyone a covid free, joyous (and you are allowed to smile and laugh during covid whatever people say) New Year.
Erm. I can spot a couple of obvious flaws in that as a system... Never mind. Have a great one!
Off to a house party shortly so will likely feel worse than a covid sufferer tomorrow - everyone going has sent LFT cartridge photos alongside photos of their watches showing date onto the WhatsApp group which was good but very strange having to do that before a party!
So wishing everyone a covid free, joyous (and you are allowed to smile and laugh during covid whatever people say) New Year.
Erm. I can spot a couple of obvious flaws in that as a system... Never mind. Have a great one!
I know the flaws but a very close old group of friends, everyone knows that some have vulnerable people in their lives to look after and two are A&E doctors so nobody being dicks about it which is nice! People in the group had pulled out of events happily in the past if not certain they were clear! However I don’t think any virus will withstand the alcoholic onslaught…..! HNY.
Competition update: away from PC so a simple confirmation that, barring a massive, pre-Hogmanay party stampede to the booster booth, @Northern_Al will crowned winner of the prize tomorrow… I understand he is looking forward to his personally dedicated copy of Iain Dale’s Prime Ministers with forward by his hero, Boris Johnson.
Oh FFS. Nobody warned me that the foreword was by BJ. Any chance of tearing those pages out before posting?
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
We are not going to have hyper inflation because the Bank will reduce the money supply if it feeds through into contract negotiations, rather than being one off supply chain constraints.
Inflation essentially happens when you have too much money chasing not enough goods. In the recent experience of the West this has happened exclusively when there has been too much money sloshing around the system, and so, as you say, the problem can be remedied by taking money out of the system.
It's a different problem if the fundamental cause is shortages in supply, as we have seen recently with natural gas. If we see further disruption to world trade next year, perhaps because of war in Ukraine, or Taiwan, or because of Covid loose in China, then I think we will experience genuine global shortages of many goods. Western countries will end up bidding against each other to secure supplies for their voters. I think this is part of a scenario that could see inflation getting out of control - particularly as we are in an age of increasing denial of harsh realities.
The issue is that inflation never went away.
Thanks to China we had an easy ready supply of cheap goods, and thanks to the EU we had an easy ready supply of cheap labour, but we had a limited supply of assets (especially housing) so the price of assets shot up with inflation chasing them while goods remained cheap.
If you owned a lot of assets then that was fantastic for you - but if you needed to rent those assets instead, for instance if you needed to let a roof over your head, then that was a disaster for you.
What we may see in the coming years is a rebalancing as labour and goods supply becomes more restricted so money goes from assets to goods and labour.
I remain to be convinced that's a bad thing, except for the existing class of asset holders.
Who owns the assets now is somewhat different to Karl Marx's earlier interpretation.
Asset holders these days. Include home owners, and they could get royally ******* as a result of the consequences of inflation.
That was kind of my point.
But tenants and aspiring home owners have been royally fucked by the runaway inflation in housing costs, seriously exceeding wage inflation.
I'd have more sympathy for those worried about inflation in labour or goods if they'd shown the same concern about inflation in housing and other assets in recent decades.
Looking back, 2021 was definitely better for me than 2020.
Once I was double jabbed, I was back to living as normal, within the bounds of government dictat. Drinking in pubs, travelling on trains, meeting family, friends and work colleagues. We even had a bit of a holiday. A far cry from the 3 months of shielding followed by not setting foot inside a cafe or pub for the rest of the year and the only family gathering being a funeral.
Used to be quite the status symbol. First, as a business thing - it meant you were a Big Cheese if your company gave you one - and then IIRC it had an afterlife as a bling object of desire in the bespoke trainers and burberry space.
Italy reported a record 144,243 Covid cases on Friday, following 126,888 the day before, the health ministry said, while the number of deaths fell slightly to 155 from 156.
Italy has officially registered 137,402 deaths linked to coronavirus since February 2020, and reported 6.125 million cases to date.
Patients in hospital with Covid - not including those in intensive care - stood at 11,150 on Friday, up from 10,866 a day earlier.
There were 119 new admissions to intensive care units, down from 134 on Thursday. The total number of intensive care patients increased to 1,260 from a previous 1,226.
A record 1.22 million tests for Covid were carried out in the last day, compared with 1.15 million the previous day, the health ministry said.
AIUI Italy has had mask mandates and been applying widespread use of Covid passports all through the Autumn, and until relatively recently was reporting very much better Covid stats than the UK. Their deaths and patient numbers are now broadly comparable with ours.
More evidence to suggest that these kinds of restrictions don't work against Omicron.
Looking back, 2021 was definitely better for me than 2020.
Once I was double jabbed, I was back to living as normal, within the bounds of government dictat. Drinking in pubs, travelling on trains, meeting family, friends and work colleagues. We even had a bit of a holiday. A far cry from the 3 months of shielding followed by not setting foot inside a cafe or pub for the rest of the year and the only family gathering being a funeral.
And, don't forget, putting your bins out in a safe and timely manner.
Used to be quite the status symbol. First, as a business thing - it meant you were a Big Cheese if your company gave you one - and then IIRC it had an afterlife as a bling object of desire in the bespoke trainers and burberry space.
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
2020 had that marvellous Spring. That was about it.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
It's a good pint or more of ale, so basically a celebratory drink.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
I marvel at people being able to run every day. My body would disintegrate under that kind of stress. But, then again, I am getting a bit old and knackered.
Right, donation made. Also just popped down to Sale Moor to post a birthday card to a friend with the unfortunate birthday of January 3rd. It feels deceptively far away, but I manage to miss it every year. With the exception of One Stop, every single shop was shut. It's Friday afternoon. Which, I assume, indicates the intention (on the part of the shopkeepers of Sale Moor to seriously push the boat out this evening. There is going to be a lot of over-compensating for a year missed tonight. Which is good news, I think.
We live seriously close
I'm near The Bridge pub on Dane Rd
Ha, yes - I live about 800 yards southeast of you.
Used to be quite the status symbol. First, as a business thing - it meant you were a Big Cheese if your company gave you one - and then IIRC it had an afterlife as a bling object of desire in the bespoke trainers and burberry space.
Was it not no drama Obama who made them cool for a time? I really liked a phone with a proper keyboard.
Right, donation made. Also just popped down to Sale Moor to post a birthday card to a friend with the unfortunate birthday of January 3rd. It feels deceptively far away, but I manage to miss it every year. With the exception of One Stop, every single shop was shut. It's Friday afternoon. Which, I assume, indicates the intention (on the part of the shopkeepers of Sale Moor to seriously push the boat out this evening. There is going to be a lot of over-compensating for a year missed tonight. Which is good news, I think.
Unless you posted it through his front door he won't see it until January 5th unless you've managed to catch today's final post in which case he may get it on the 4th.
The 4th would still be beating my average level of success. I'm hopeful I got the last post - I used the box outside the post office. But I'll send her a congratulatory text on the day anyway apologising for my uselessness, again.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
It's when you have a skin growth down there. A big one, too.
You call it a "skin growth"? That's probably modest of you.
Great site, this, so will be donating in a second. But first a Big Picture mood post -
I'm heartened by how it's gone and how it's going with Covid. Even with Omicron shooting out of left field - aka Africa - we're transitioning rapidly to a post pandemic life that won't look much different to the one we had before. Whole thing over in 2 years, far as the UK is concerned, which is not too shabby.
Back in March 2020, I had a real anxiety that this might be something cataclysmic. The actual outcome - if I'm right about where it's heading - is so much better than my fears at the outset. And vaccines and treatments are only going to improve.
Upshot: Covid-wise, 22 can be looked forward to, I think.
Kinabalu, you have long been a voice of sanity on this, so pleased to hear you remain optimistic. I am too, on balance. I do worry about what will happen when the bill for it all comes in. But that is worry, not panic.
Cheers. Yep, the public finances are screwed and the outlook for the economy isn't great but this is a more prosaic concern than the worst fears on Covid looked like. If people do want something to get in a lather about, and why not, it can be stimulating to postulate on the bleak side, I'd suggest Hyper Inflation.
Of all the bad things that can happen with an economy this is the King of the Hill. It destroys the very fabric of society and can lead to a collective nervous breakdown, civil disorder, violent insurrection, genocide and war. And we don't want that.
Ideally not, no. Those things are bad. But I think all sides have the political will and nous to avoid such an outcome. I do think we're in for a good few years of well-above-average inflation - double digits, probably. But the last 20 years have been the outlier really. Cheap stuff from China, cheap labour from everywhere. It can't last, and probably shouldn't. Longer term, I'd expect to get back to 5%-ish being the norm.
Used to be quite the status symbol. First, as a business thing - it meant you were a Big Cheese if your company gave you one - and then IIRC it had an afterlife as a bling object of desire in the bespoke trainers and burberry space.
What they were, back in the business end of the early 2000s, was a way to communicate with each other over the 160 character text message limit (which most phones had at the time).
It feels odd in this age to remember a time where you were charged per 160 chars (text message), like a telegram, but back in the early 2000s Blackberry was basically the ICQ/AIM/MSN of its time for business people.
Peppa Pig level misjudgment, that interview. I know he is thick but his family and courtiers should know that too well to let him plan these things himself. He is going to get crucified over Pizza Express, because people remember parties that princes come to, and parties for children that age are birthday parties so the date will be nailed down. He is going to get crucified over the sweating thing. And though he is presently merely being sued he'll be looking at perjury charges if he tries to run this nonsense in court
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Be careful in Steeple Morden. Serial practical joker Steve Parrish lives there:
2020 had to be better for me. The early lockdown was exciting. Like being chased by a bear exciting, mind, but certainly novel. Plus absolutely slap bang glorious weather. A genuine feeling that we were in it together, that we'd emerge as a better society, and little division as there wasn't much owt anyone could do about it. That wore off of course. 2021 was grim. Snow as late as May 6. Brutally cold, no end in sight. Bitter, rancorous division everyone losing their shit all around. A feeling that not only were we, as individuals, not in control, but that no bugger inside government or out had any idea what was happening. Of course. There were the vaccines. But that didn't seem to put an end to much, and only served up more rancour. Genuinely hopeful for 2022. Though I do hope we try to learn at least summat from the experience. Probably futile, I know.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
It's when you have a skin growth down there. A big one, too.
You call it a "skin growth"? That's probably modest of you.
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
2020 had that marvellous Spring. That was about it.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
There was Eat Out To Help Out in 2020. You surely haven't forgotten that. Bliss it was in that summer to get a prawn cocktail, steak & chips and a black forest gateau for just £10.
Competition update: away from PC so a simple confirmation that, barring a massive, pre-Hogmanay party stampede to the booster booth, @Northern_Al will crowned winner of the prize tomorrow… I understand he is looking forward to his personally dedicated copy of Iain Dale’s Prime Ministers with forward by his hero, Boris Johnson.
Oh FFS. Nobody warned me that the foreword was by BJ. Any chance of tearing those pages out before posting?
It’s being sold off cheap nowadays because the foreword (and more pointedly the profile of the current PM) is so obviously wrong.
Repeating this here as it's too good to waste on a now dead thread
2021 showing 2022 around
Happy New Year folks.
I am determined that 2022 is going to be a better year. Its a low bar, this one has been crap.
We need that Boris picture with two thumbs up. I think 2021 was better than 2020 by far, despite the crap weather all year. Hopefully we'll have better weather and no lockdowns this coming year.
I thought 2021 was worse to be honest. We started 2020 knowing things were turning grim but with a lot of hope that vaccines were going to make us invulnerable.
And it has been a grim slog ever since to the point where you concluded on the previous thread that there is minimal evidence that even 3 vaccines stops you from being infected with this wretched virus and even if you were unlikely to be seriously ill you can still pass it on. Hopefully anti-virials will prove a better way out of this mess.
Does it matter if you get infected but experience no or few symptoms? I'm not sure what the issue is. That has always been the endgame for COVID, to turn it into another endemic cold that no one cares about. Three doses of vaccine gets us there with Omicron, it seems like one prior infection does as well due to cross immunity from memory cells (going on yesterday's paper, there's little to no dilution of memory cell based immunity).
I think you should reanalyse the situation, would you be worried about catching one of the other four coronaviruses that are related to the common cold? I doubt it. That's the stage we're at with COVID for the triple jabbed or previously infected. So it doesn't matter that vaccine protection against infection is not very high, we're never going to be in a position where we can prevent infection from COVID, only minimise the symptoms to an extent that it doesn't cause mass hospitalisation and death. Looking at the stats coming from NHS England and the ONS, it seems as though we're already there.
At the beginning of 2020 the general belief was 2 vaccines would make you immune creating herd immunity and leaving the virus nowhere to go. That hope started to wane in 2020 and has been demolished this year.
And we still have 5m or so numpties who are not so vaccinated. And they are going to keep filling up our hospitals for much of the coming year unless the anti-virials work their magic. And many other people, including the vaccinated, will suffer as a result. It's bloody annoying tbh.
I agree with your venom at the anti-vaxxers but surely the vast majority of them will get Omicron in the next few weeks, if they haven’t already. Hundreds of thousands are catching it DAILY right now
Yup, Omicron is going to find those unvaccinated fools very quickly.
mind your language they see themselves as freedom fighters
You seem awfully concerned about how they see themselves.
I see them as a statistic - and one that are knowingly jeopardising our freedom too.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
It's a good pint or more of ale, so basically a celebratory drink.
If I don't see you again first, I hope everyone has a Happy New Year and best wishes for 2022. May it be a happy, safe and prosperous one for all of you and your families.
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Be careful in Steeple Morden. Serial practical joker Steve Parrish lives there:
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Be careful in Steeple Morden. Serial practical joker Steve Parrish lives there:
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
2020 had that marvellous Spring. That was about it.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
There was Eat Out To Help Out in 2020. You surely haven't forgotten that. Bliss it was in that summer to get a prawn cocktail, steak & chips and a black forest gateau for just £10.
Quite, and dice with death at the same time ... cheap thrills.
Its interesting that the prosecution in the G Maxwell case didn't go near her with a barge poll.
Not really, there are rumours that implicate her in the recruitment of other girls into the organisation so I can see why the Prosecution may not want to include her in their list of witnesses when there was already enough evidence.
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
2020 had that marvellous Spring. That was about it.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
There was Eat Out To Help Out in 2020. You surely haven't forgotten that. Bliss it was in that summer to get a prawn cocktail, steak & chips and a black forest gateau for just £10.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
It's a good pint or more of ale, so basically a celebratory drink.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
It's when you have a skin growth down there. A big one, too.
You call it a "skin growth"? That's probably modest of you.
LOL
I've left myself wide open to mockery here. I think a right good drink is in order. See you next year.
Happy new year and tak' a right gude-willie waught!
Peppa Pig level misjudgment, that interview. I know he is thick but his family and courtiers should know that too well to let him plan these things himself. He is going to get crucified over Pizza Express, because people remember parties that princes come to, and parties for children that age are birthday parties so the date will be nailed down. He is going to get crucified over the sweating thing. And though he is presently merely being sued he'll be looking at perjury charges if he tries to run this nonsense in court
It was a remarkable performance for sure. My favourite has to be how he was just too honourable to tell Jeff over the phone that their mateship was over. He had to fly over there and hook up with him in order to deliver the grim news in person. Mark of the man.
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
2020 had that marvellous Spring. That was about it.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
There was Eat Out To Help Out in 2020. You surely haven't forgotten that. Bliss it was in that summer to get a prawn cocktail, steak & chips and a black forest gateau for just £10.
Well, yes, but one got to use that for a few weeks and then the cases took off, the mood went sour, the deaths started up again and we had that grim pantomime with the on-off lockdowns and the cancelled Christmas. So I suppose that it got rather overshadowed in the memory.
That Spring though. The endless hours of sunshine, the heat, the insects chirping in the long grass, and the clear blue skies over the heath with no sign of an aeroplane anywhere. That I do remember.
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Congratulations. Interesting to see Madingley Hall on the map, I was there recently for a music festival.
Happy New Year to all, and congratulations to @MikeSmithson and his tea boys @rcs1000, @TSE for hosting what must be pretty much the best discussion site ever! Apart from the lack of an AV debate of course. Oh and the cheating with 'test' just to get the first post ...
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Be careful in Steeple Morden. Serial practical joker Steve Parrish lives there:
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
Great stuff. (I live about 50m outside the eastern boundary of your square...)
One of the handful of good decisions I made back in the first lockdown of 2020 was that I was not getting enough exercise without the cycle commute, and so I needed to do at least *something* every day. So since 1 May 2020 I've always done at least 25-30 minutes of outdoor exercise every day, either walking or on the bike. It's not much, but I find the consistency helps and it's satisfying to be able to keep marking off days on the calendar.
Peppa Pig level misjudgment, that interview. I know he is thick but his family and courtiers should know that too well to let him plan these things himself. He is going to get crucified over Pizza Express, because people remember parties that princes come to, and parties for children that age are birthday parties so the date will be nailed down. He is going to get crucified over the sweating thing. And though he is presently merely being sued he'll be looking at perjury charges if he tries to run this nonsense in court
It was a remarkable performance for sure. My favourite has to be how he was just too honourable to tell Jeff over the phone that their mateship was over. He had to fly over there and hook up with him in order to deliver the grim news in person. Mark of the man.
Peppa Pig level misjudgment, that interview. I know he is thick but his family and courtiers should know that too well to let him plan these things himself. He is going to get crucified over Pizza Express, because people remember parties that princes come to, and parties for children that age are birthday parties so the date will be nailed down. He is going to get crucified over the sweating thing. And though he is presently merely being sued he'll be looking at perjury charges if he tries to run this nonsense in court
Is there any realistic prospect of Andrew attending court?
2020 had to be better for me. The early lockdown was exciting. Like being chased by a bear exciting, mind, but certainly novel. Plus absolutely slap bang glorious weather. A genuine feeling that we were in it together, that we'd emerge as a better society, and little division as there wasn't much owt anyone could do about it. That wore off of course. 2021 was grim. Snow as late as May 6. Brutally cold, no end in sight. Bitter, rancorous division everyone losing their shit all around. A feeling that not only were we, as individuals, not in control, but that no bugger inside government or out had any idea what was happening. Of course. There were the vaccines. But that didn't seem to put an end to much, and only served up more rancour. Genuinely hopeful for 2022. Though I do hope we try to learn at least summat from the experience. Probably futile, I know.
yes there was a much more all in it together feeling in 2020....by 2021 we were bitterly divided and then we had all the spats over things like jabs for kids...
Used to be quite the status symbol. First, as a business thing - it meant you were a Big Cheese if your company gave you one - and then IIRC it had an afterlife as a bling object of desire in the bespoke trainers and burberry space.
Was it not no drama Obama who made them cool for a time? I really liked a phone with a proper keyboard.
Sounds right. Anything he used would become cool. Probably not possible for a politician to be cooler than him and I even include Bill blowing his sax in that.
It's not too often I cite another poster but @kinabalu has got it wrong (whether for the first time or not, I'll leave to others).
The world has been changed by the pandemic, probably irrevocably and wishing desperately for a return to the heady days of 2019 isn't going to make it happen. That genie's not going back in the bottle.
For hundreds of thousands, the world of work has been transformed - the age of the soul-destroying commute is over and replaced by a new "hybrid" style of office and home working with all that flows from that including different and evolving forms of team building, relationship building and management.
The retail experience is different - "going to the shops" is no longer the be-all and end-all. So much can and is being done online and the expansion of home delivery options for almost everything has been one of the revolutionary aspects of the past two years.
It's also worth celebrating human ingenuity and technological success - we have saved so many and made so much of life bearable through this. The production of vaccines has been remarkable - hopefully it will spur progress in other areas such as alleviating cancer and dementia.
Foe those who have suffered and lost loved ones and friends, all I can offer are my sympathies. Death has touched too many families through this and we mustn't lose sight of that.
Looks like the boosters are bringing the number of deaths from Delta down, and Omicron isn't adding more in despite causing huge numbers of cases.
Bearing in mind that in the wave last winter, cases peaked in London on January 1st, and the peak in deaths was on January 16th - 15 days later. We can see that in inner London boroughs like Lambeth, it looks like cases peaked on the 17th December, so we would expect to see deaths peak about 2 weeks/15 days later, which would be on the 1st January.
There's no sign in Lambeth of any increase in Covid deaths at all, and only a slight increase in the London death figures. I'm not sure we're going to see much sign of an Omicron peak in Covid deaths. Immunity from prior infection and Omicron being inherently less fatal combined, will mean that even anti-vaxxers have little to fear from this wave of infection.
Being optimistic, I think there will be a good case by the first working day back in the New Year for all the plan B restrictions to be rolled back. Now I just have to convince my wife of this.
If we're lucky. Otherwise we'll end up spending most of the year arguing whether to use hyper-inflation, with a hyphen, or hyperinflation, without.
Christ. Thanks. Hyper inflation. Fantastic
So basically the 2020s are going to be a repeat of the 1920s. As they were experienced in Germany.
Brilliant
If it's any help, AEP in Telegraph says it wont get that bad. But German inflation will be bad enough to start serious moves towards Deutsch Exit. Germans don't like inflation.
I don't doubt the inflation issues here and on the Continent, but Dexit is just the Telegraph justifying Brexit to itself.
Have to admit, I smiled when I read that piece. A classic case of identifying a real problem but forecasting an unlikely outcome.
Germany leaving the EU is something nobody should be rooting for. If that's happening it'll mean something very bad has already happened.
We are back into the scenarios where the Euro has to be split to protect one or more southern EU countries from economic destruction.
And in those scenarios the best fix seems to have been identified as the richer Northern countries leave the Euro rather than expecting Italy / Greece to leave.
I think the Germans legendary hatred of inflation - and the role of the Bundesbank in ensuring a stable currency - tends to be a little overdone. Yes, they've tended to have lower inflation rates than their peers, but inflation got close to 10% in the 1970s without it becoming a major issue.
Now: if that had happened in Germany on its own (i.e. there were no obvious external drivers), or if it had been sustained for a period, it would have been different. But the Germans accepted then that something exceptional had happened, and - so long as it's just a year or so - I suspect that this time would be no different. (Not least because German exports suddenly becoming a lot more expensive would not exactly fill the workers of Munich with joy.)
It's also worth noting that there are areas of Germany (like Saxony for instance) as well as the EU as a whole (most of the South) that are running well below "capacity" economically. And inflation - monetarist arguments aside - typically occurs when an economy is running against capacity constraints. It is also worth noting that the removal of the UK as a demand pull for migrants should increase the attraction of Germany, potentially putting a bit of a blocker on wage inflation there.
If I don't see you again first, I hope everyone has a Happy New Year and best wishes for 2022. May it be a happy, safe and prosperous one for all of you and your families.
2021 was a boring slog. I got to late September and genuinely couldn't see my way through the last few months of work this year. It felt like 2 years packaged up into 1 already and still a good quarter to go.
2020 at least had a glorious summer. After maybe two weeks, that original lockdown was easy - long walks (that 1 hr rule was never in the statutes and local police took it with a light touch), patio beers on warm nights, every unexpected chat or meeting cherished.
2021. Slog.
That's exactly what I felt. 2020 at least had some novelty. 2021 utter, unredeemed tedium which got harder and harder as time went on.
2020 had that marvellous Spring. That was about it.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
There was Eat Out To Help Out in 2020. You surely haven't forgotten that. Bliss it was in that summer to get a prawn cocktail, steak & chips and a black forest gateau for just £10.
Well, yes, but one got to use that for a few weeks and then the cases took off, the mood went sour, the deaths started up again and we had that grim pantomime with the on-off lockdowns and the cancelled Christmas. So I suppose that it got rather overshadowed in the memory.
That Spring though. The endless hours of sunshine, the heat, the insects chirping in the long grass, and the clear blue skies over the heath with no sign of an aeroplane anywhere. That I do remember.
Oh yes, that spring weather was glorious. Having a garden to sit in and enjoy it was a privilege.
I should also mention that I read War and Peace last year. Mostly while sitting in the garden. Definitely a book to read during lockdown, rather than lugging it around to read on the train.
If everything goes tits up, people will sell their bitcoin to pay their rent or keep up with the car payments.
Source: my friends
Yep. As long as Bitcoin is valued in traditional currencies, then there's always a chance of the price crashing. For it really to be the future, it would need people to want to be paid in the stuff.
Spot on:
Unless cryptocurrencies have a use beyond speculation*, then they will never be able to take over from fiat currencies.
* Online market places for illegal shit is not - in itself - sufficient
Twitter awash with rumours that Mr Drakeford and partner are at a holiday inn in Bristol for the evening to celebrate. Quite amusing really and probably nothing in it. A Holiday Inn !
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
English translation from the inter web thingy. Perhaps our Scots friends can attest to its accuracy?
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
Great stuff. (I live about 50m outside the eastern boundary of your square...)
One of the handful of good decisions I made back in the first lockdown of 2020 was that I was not getting enough exercise without the cycle commute, and so I needed to do at least *something* every day. So since 1 May 2020 I've always done at least 25-30 minutes of outdoor exercise every day, either walking or on the bike. It's not much, but I find the consistency helps and it's satisfying to be able to keep marking off days on the calendar.
The challenge has helped keep me sane over the last two years. I like having challenges; things that matter little to anyone else, but which I can focus on. It may be writing something, something involving exercise, or just obtaining something.
I sometimes fail: a few years back I wanted to be able to complete 100 push-ups, but I never managed it, I'd argue I was fitter for having tried, and I could console myself in the effort, even if it failed.
If you PM roughly where you are, I'll ensure that the 50m becomes 0m.
If everything goes tits up, people will sell their bitcoin to pay their rent or keep up with the car payments.
Source: my friends
Yep. As long as Bitcoin is valued in traditional currencies, then there's always a chance of the price crashing. For it really to be the future, it would need people to want to be paid in the stuff.
Spot on:
Unless cryptocurrencies have a use beyond speculation*, then they will never be able to take over from fiat currencies.
* Online market places for illegal shit is not - in itself - sufficient
I value my wealth in sats, tbh
Crypto isn't about speculation, it's about wealth preservation in a time of inflation, maybe hyperinflation.
On the subject of hyperinflation, couldn't you just buy a rental property or some other similar property asset with a large mortgage on a 5 year fixed rate and no early repayment penalty. So if hyperinflation takes off then you just pay off the mortgage with cash? That would be my solution if I had lots of spare cash (which unfortunately I don't).
Yes: owning real assets financed with fixed rate debt is by far the most sensible way to hedge against hyperinflation.
That being said, do recognise that you could do very poorly in a situation where (a) inflation does not take off, and (b) house prices fall in absolute terms.
Twitter awash with rumours that Mr Drakeford and partner are at a holiday inn in Bristol for the evening to celebrate. Quite amusing really and probably nothing in it. A Holiday Inn !
Twitter awash with rumours that Mr Drakeford and partner are at a holiday inn in Bristol for the evening to celebrate. Quite amusing really and probably nothing in it. A Holiday Inn !
I think that one requires a photograph.
I’m sure, if true, there will be plenty forthcoming
If everything goes tits up, people will sell their bitcoin to pay their rent or keep up with the car payments.
Source: my friends
Yep. As long as Bitcoin is valued in traditional currencies, then there's always a chance of the price crashing. For it really to be the future, it would need people to want to be paid in the stuff.
And that requires a vaguely steady valuation alongside small transaction costs. Neither of which is something that bitcoin or other similar things offer.
The transaction costs are a massive issue. I do wonder when - if - Lightning will take off. Essentially a few tens of middlemen running Lightning nodes, and allowing all BTC/ETH to run through them could (a) reduce transaction costs 99.999% and (b) reduce transaction times from too long to a reasonable period.
Though I've been a bit poorly this year, chatting sh*t or even just reading it does help me get through these dark times.
Sorry to hear of your travails - some of which I share. Lockdown sent me mental as well
I am very very very very very very cautiously optimistic that 2022 will be better. For us both? HNY!
Thank you. Happy new year!
I've been ill before, but I've never been so ill i've needed to quit a 100k a year job and scurry off to my grandparents old house and sit by the window in my grandfather's old chair, just looking out to sea and dribbling for a few months. But that is where lockdown took me. And it is why I am so anti lockdown now.
I am struck by how *fortunate* that I am that my near total breakdown happened in me when I was old enough and rich enough to process it. And to enjoy it with family rather than mental health professionals. Many people will have experienced the same thing to me thanks to lockdown, but have been in a much worse position than I.
I am better now, though I think I was more vegetable than animal or mineral earlier this year.
As Hemingway said, the world breaks everyone and many are strong at the broken places. Then again, he shot himself...
When I am feeling blue from Covid and Co - which still happens, tho less frequently of late - I look at a couple of photos of myself. From autumn and winter 2020-21
My god. I look about 90 years old and seriously sick. And mad. And with a deathly pallor. And maybe homeless. With crazy uncut hobo hair and a suicidal gloom in my hollow eyes.
THAT was my bad place. It consoles me - at least I’m not back there
In case anyone's interested in Channel 4's iconic music show The Tube from the 80s, someone has been uploading the episodes to YouTube over the last few months and I've set up a playlist.
Can any of our Scots tell me what this means? "A right gude-willie waught"?!
Quite Interesting @qikipedia 2m There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere! and gie's a hand o' thine! And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught, for auld lang syne.
English translation from the inter web thingy. Perhaps our Scots friends can attest to its accuracy?
hould old acquaintance be forgot,
and never brought to mind?
Should old acquaintance be forgot,
and old lang syne?
CHORUS:
For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne,
We’ll take a cup of kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
And surely you’ll buy your pint cup!
And surely I’ll buy mine!
And we’ll take a cup o’ kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We two have run about the slopes,
And picked the daisies fine;
But we’ve wandered many a weary foot,
Since auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We two have paddled in the stream,
from morning sun till dine;
But seas between us broad have roared
since auld lang syne.
CHORUS
And there’s a hand my trusty friend!
And give me a hand o’ thine!
And we’ll take a right good-will draught,
For auld lang syne.
CHORUS
Bit of an omission not to translate the words auld lang syne
The Parting Glass is a much better song. Burns really wasn't all that, was he?
Further to my earlier post on my favourite ludicrous Boris hating attacks of the year, and to again pull out the Spooneristic phrase that I'm obviously very pleased to have coined (shut up. I know it won't catch on), I present my annual "Wind Of Keird" Award nominees:
- Wallpaper Pasty - Rockeir Starmoa - The Johnson Variant
Used to be quite the status symbol. First, as a business thing - it meant you were a Big Cheese if your company gave you one - and then IIRC it had an afterlife as a bling object of desire in the bespoke trainers and burberry space.
Was it not no drama Obama who made them cool for a time? I really liked a phone with a proper keyboard.
Sounds right. Anything he used would become cool. Probably not possible for a politician to be cooler than him and I even include Bill blowing his sax in that.
In case anyone's interested in Channel 4's iconic music show The Tube from the 80s, someone has been uploading the episodes to YouTube over the last few months and I've set up a playlist.
It's not too often I cite another poster but @kinabalu has got it wrong (whether for the first time or not, I'll leave to others).
The world has been changed by the pandemic, probably irrevocably and wishing desperately for a return to the heady days of 2019 isn't going to make it happen. That genie's not going back in the bottle.
For hundreds of thousands, the world of work has been transformed - the age of the soul-destroying commute is over and replaced by a new "hybrid" style of office and home working with all that flows from that including different and evolving forms of team building, relationship building and management.
The retail experience is different - "going to the shops" is no longer the be-all and end-all. So much can and is being done online and the expansion of home delivery options for almost everything has been one of the revolutionary aspects of the past two years.
It's also worth celebrating human ingenuity and technological success - we have saved so many and made so much of life bearable through this. The production of vaccines has been remarkable - hopefully it will spur progress in other areas such as alleviating cancer and dementia.
Foe those who have suffered and lost loved ones and friends, all I can offer are my sympathies. Death has touched too many families through this and we mustn't lose sight of that.
Ah, I think you've taken my post in a way I didn't intend. I'm not making light of the pandemic or saying it will leave no mark. It surely will. What I mainly meant is we can (imo) say goodbye to lockdowns and NPIs. All of that. Covid will soon be over (here) as a big part of our lives. It's back to how we were in this sense. But of course there'll be a legacy in many areas, eg in commerce and medicine. And of course there has been personal loss for many and lasting grief.
It's not too often I cite another poster but @kinabalu has got it wrong (whether for the first time or not, I'll leave to others).
The world has been changed by the pandemic, probably irrevocably and wishing desperately for a return to the heady days of 2019 isn't going to make it happen. That genie's not going back in the bottle.
For hundreds of thousands, the world of work has been transformed - the age of the soul-destroying commute is over and replaced by a new "hybrid" style of office and home working with all that flows from that including different and evolving forms of team building, relationship building and management.
The retail experience is different - "going to the shops" is no longer the be-all and end-all. So much can and is being done online and the expansion of home delivery options for almost everything has been one of the revolutionary aspects of the past two years.
It's also worth celebrating human ingenuity and technological success - we have saved so many and made so much of life bearable through this. The production of vaccines has been remarkable - hopefully it will spur progress in other areas such as alleviating cancer and dementia.
Foe those who have suffered and lost loved ones and friends, all I can offer are my sympathies. Death has touched too many families through this and we mustn't lose sight of that.
Ah, I think you've taken my post in a way I didn't intend. I'm not making light of the pandemic or saying it will leave no mark. It surely will. What I mainly meant is we can (imo) say goodbye to lockdowns and NPIs. All of that. Covid will soon be over (here) as a big part of our lives. It's back to how we were in this sense. But of course there'll be a legacy in many areas, eg in commerce and medicine. And of course there has been personal loss for many and lasting grief.
Yep. I wonder if a betting company might like to offer odds on when government stops mandating isolation for people who test positive for COVID.
It's not too often I cite another poster but @kinabalu has got it wrong (whether for the first time or not, I'll leave to others).
The world has been changed by the pandemic, probably irrevocably and wishing desperately for a return to the heady days of 2019 isn't going to make it happen. That genie's not going back in the bottle.
For hundreds of thousands, the world of work has been transformed - the age of the soul-destroying commute is over and replaced by a new "hybrid" style of office and home working with all that flows from that including different and evolving forms of team building, relationship building and management.
The retail experience is different - "going to the shops" is no longer the be-all and end-all. So much can and is being done online and the expansion of home delivery options for almost everything has been one of the revolutionary aspects of the past two years.
It's also worth celebrating human ingenuity and technological success - we have saved so many and made so much of life bearable through this. The production of vaccines has been remarkable - hopefully it will spur progress in other areas such as alleviating cancer and dementia.
Foe those who have suffered and lost loved ones and friends, all I can offer are my sympathies. Death has touched too many families through this and we mustn't lose sight of that.
As someone who spends much of my professional work trying to build teams and organizational culture, I would be fascinated to learn of the 'different and evolving forms of team-building, relationship-building, and management'. Can you point me in the direction of relevant literature? Because this is an area where everyone I know of in the adult professional training world is suffering as a result of the move to online-only rules.
Serious question. I really want to find any way to improve team- and relationship-building online, particularly for teams and relationships that formed post-COVID.
(reposted - put in wrong thread) I've set up a monthly donation and would encourage others to consider doing the same. I can imagine that running a website with 1000+ anonymous comments every day is very difficult work and the outlook in terms of regulation and risk is bad given the endless panic driven government policy initiatives about online safety and abuse. I've followed this website for years and have got a lot out of the commentary on it so would like to see it keep going. Cheers.
I did the same thing last December. I realised I spent far more time on here than Netflix, Times, Guardian and Telegraph combined, all of which I have a subscription to. So I set up a monthly payment via PayPal equal to what I pay for a few of the others combined and don't actually need to respond to appeals like this anymore...
Lots of caveats about Christmas testing and backfilling of data, also worth noting that while cases in the young look as if they are fulling there is still a small rise in the older age groups.
Worth noting that lots of people leave London (taking Covid with them) over the Xmas period, and then return in the New Year.
That being said, I tend to agree that London numbers are likely peaking.
Comments
From 1st February 2022 vaccination is required to obtain or renew a long-term pass, work pass or Permanent Residency.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/singapore/coronavirus
I can spot a couple of obvious flaws in that as a system...
Never mind. Have a great one!
BlackBerry will die on January 4th — for real this time
Legacy BlackBerry devices will lose text, call, and data functionality in 2022
https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/31/22861141/blackberry-legacy-devices-dead-lose-functionality-january-4th
We have the simple:
check the steering is working correctly
and the more literary:
check the stern gland greaser is topped up and operates correctly
https://boatingonthethames.co.uk/cruising-tidal-thames-boating-on-the-thames-port-of-london-authority/
@arusbridger
· 25m
Classic Guardian letter on the last day of 2021…
But tenants and aspiring home owners have been royally fucked by the runaway inflation in housing costs, seriously exceeding wage inflation.
I'd have more sympathy for those worried about inflation in labour or goods if they'd shown the same concern about inflation in housing and other assets in recent decades.
Once I was double jabbed, I was back to living as normal, within the bounds of government dictat. Drinking in pubs, travelling on trains, meeting family, friends and work colleagues. We even had a bit of a holiday. A far cry from the 3 months of shielding followed by not setting foot inside a cafe or pub for the rest of the year and the only family gathering being a funeral.
Italy has officially registered 137,402 deaths linked to coronavirus since February 2020, and reported 6.125 million cases to date.
Patients in hospital with Covid - not including those in intensive care - stood at 11,150 on Friday, up from 10,866 a day earlier.
There were 119 new admissions to intensive care units, down from 134 on Thursday. The total number of intensive care patients increased to 1,260 from a previous 1,226.
A record 1.22 million tests for Covid were carried out in the last day, compared with 1.15 million the previous day, the health ministry said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/31/covid-news-live-south-africa-says-fourth-wave-has-peaked-us-will-soon-see-viral-blizzard-expert-warns
AIUI Italy has had mask mandates and been applying widespread use of Covid passports all through the Autumn, and until relatively recently was reporting very much better Covid stats than the UK. Their deaths and patient numbers are now broadly comparable with ours.
More evidence to suggest that these kinds of restrictions don't work against Omicron.
This morning I completed my 376th run of 2021, during which I completed at least one run every day. I ran a total of 2,769 miles (4,456 km), for an average of 7.3 miles per run.
If you want to see the madness in visual form, see the map of madness.
(I hope that link works for you all, I've been busy munging code to get it to work whilst drinking some cheap wine. Untested on mobile devices, buyer beware, you get what you pay for, etc, etc ..)
Quite Interesting
@qikipedia
2m
There are five verses in Burns' version of Auld Lang Syne, although most of us only sing the first verse and chorus. Try the last verse out on friends:
And there's a hand, my trusty fiere!
and gie's a hand o' thine!
And we'll tak' a right gude-willie waught,
for auld lang syne.
Ok, sorry.
The first three or four months of 2021 was absolutely bloody awful, but after that (barring the Omicron flap) it's been much better.
I'm hopeful I got the last post - I used the box outside the post office. But I'll send her a congratulatory text on the day anyway apologising for my uselessness, again.
But I think all sides have the political will and nous to avoid such an outcome.
I do think we're in for a good few years of well-above-average inflation - double digits, probably. But the last 20 years have been the outlier really. Cheap stuff from China, cheap labour from everywhere. It can't last, and probably shouldn't. Longer term, I'd expect to get back to 5%-ish being the norm.
Allegedly.
It feels odd in this age to remember a time where you were charged per 160 chars (text message), like a telegram, but back in the early 2000s Blackberry was basically the ICQ/AIM/MSN of its time for business people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Parrish#Personality
A genuine feeling that we were in it together, that we'd emerge as a better society, and little division as there wasn't much owt anyone could do about it.
That wore off of course.
2021 was grim. Snow as late as May 6. Brutally cold, no end in sight. Bitter, rancorous division everyone losing their shit all around. A feeling that not only were we, as individuals, not in control, but that no bugger inside government or out had any idea what was happening. Of course. There were the vaccines. But that didn't seem to put an end to much, and only served up more rancour.
Genuinely hopeful for 2022. Though I do hope we try to learn at least summat from the experience.
Probably futile, I know.
(double checked -
https://dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/guidwill
https://dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/waucht)
If I don't see you again first, I hope everyone has a Happy New Year and best wishes for 2022. May it be a happy, safe and prosperous one for all of you and your families.
They're actually two very pleasant villages. I liked them.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/willie-waught
I would agree it is not a specific quantity but a hearty drink.
That Spring though. The endless hours of sunshine, the heat, the insects chirping in the long grass, and the clear blue skies over the heath with no sign of an aeroplane anywhere. That I do remember.
One of the handful of good decisions I made back in the first lockdown of 2020 was that I was not getting enough exercise without the cycle commute, and so I needed to do at least *something* every day. So since 1 May 2020 I've always done at least 25-30 minutes of outdoor exercise every day, either walking or on the bike. It's not much, but I find the consistency helps and it's satisfying to be able to keep marking off days on the calendar.
If not I haven't been wild swimming in London.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1476940859014791170
The world has been changed by the pandemic, probably irrevocably and wishing desperately for a return to the heady days of 2019 isn't going to make it happen. That genie's not going back in the bottle.
For hundreds of thousands, the world of work has been transformed - the age of the soul-destroying commute is over and replaced by a new "hybrid" style of office and home working with all that flows from that including different and evolving forms of team building, relationship building and management.
The retail experience is different - "going to the shops" is no longer the be-all and end-all. So much can and is being done online and the expansion of home delivery options for almost everything has been one of the revolutionary aspects of the past two years.
It's also worth celebrating human ingenuity and technological success - we have saved so many and made so much of life bearable through this. The production of vaccines has been remarkable - hopefully it will spur progress in other areas such as alleviating cancer and dementia.
Foe those who have suffered and lost loved ones and friends, all I can offer are my sympathies. Death has touched too many families through this and we mustn't lose sight of that.
Bearing in mind that in the wave last winter, cases peaked in London on January 1st, and the peak in deaths was on January 16th - 15 days later. We can see that in inner London boroughs like Lambeth, it looks like cases peaked on the 17th December, so we would expect to see deaths peak about 2 weeks/15 days later, which would be on the 1st January.
There's no sign in Lambeth of any increase in Covid deaths at all, and only a slight increase in the London death figures. I'm not sure we're going to see much sign of an Omicron peak in Covid deaths. Immunity from prior infection and Omicron being inherently less fatal combined, will mean that even anti-vaxxers have little to fear from this wave of infection.
Being optimistic, I think there will be a good case by the first working day back in the New Year for all the plan B restrictions to be rolled back. Now I just have to convince my wife of this.
Now: if that had happened in Germany on its own (i.e. there were no obvious external drivers), or if it had been sustained for a period, it would have been different. But the Germans accepted then that something exceptional had happened, and - so long as it's just a year or so - I suspect that this time would be no different. (Not least because German exports suddenly becoming a lot more expensive would not exactly fill the workers of Munich with joy.)
It's also worth noting that there are areas of Germany (like Saxony for instance) as well as the EU as a whole (most of the South) that are running well below "capacity" economically. And inflation - monetarist arguments aside - typically occurs when an economy is running against capacity constraints. It is also worth noting that the removal of the UK as a demand pull for migrants should increase the attraction of Germany, potentially putting a bit of a blocker on wage inflation there.
I should also mention that I read War and Peace last year. Mostly while sitting in the garden. Definitely a book to read during lockdown, rather than lugging it around to read on the train.
Unless cryptocurrencies have a use beyond speculation*, then they will never be able to take over from fiat currencies.
* Online market places for illegal shit is not - in itself - sufficient
hould old acquaintance be forgot,
and never brought to mind?
Should old acquaintance be forgot,
and old lang syne?
CHORUS:
For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne,
We’ll take a cup of kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
And surely you’ll buy your pint cup!
And surely I’ll buy mine!
And we’ll take a cup o’ kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We two have run about the slopes,
And picked the daisies fine;
But we’ve wandered many a weary foot,
Since auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We two have paddled in the stream,
from morning sun till dine;
But seas between us broad have roared
since auld lang syne.
CHORUS
And there’s a hand my trusty friend!
And give me a hand o’ thine!
And we’ll take a right good-will draught,
For auld lang syne.
CHORUS
I sometimes fail: a few years back I wanted to be able to complete 100 push-ups, but I never managed it, I'd argue I was fitter for having tried, and I could console myself in the effort, even if it failed.
If you PM roughly where you are, I'll ensure that the 50m becomes 0m.
P.S. Donated.
Crypto isn't about speculation, it's about wealth preservation in a time of inflation, maybe hyperinflation.
That being said, do recognise that you could do very poorly in a situation where (a) inflation does not take off, and (b) house prices fall in absolute terms.
https://twitter.com/newsforail/status/1476959131349274625?s=21
Yet.
In case anyone's interested in Channel 4's iconic music show The Tube from the 80s, someone has been uploading the episodes to YouTube over the last few months and I've set up a playlist.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6oCQqv2KW6WGCG-5GXP5mNgCQbUplinJ
The Parting Glass is a much better song. Burns really wasn't all that, was he?
- Wallpaper Pasty
- Rockeir Starmoa
- The Johnson Variant
Serious question. I really want to find any way to improve team- and relationship-building online, particularly for teams and relationships that formed post-COVID.
I'm dipping out for the rest of the day, so Happy New Year Comrades!
That being said, I tend to agree that London numbers are likely peaking.