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There’s no need for a LAB-LD pact or progressive alliance – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    This is proper off-the-charts whacky: a complaint submitted to the ICC by Piers Corbyn & co claiming the vaccination program is a planned genocide.

    The co-applicants list is also a great example of how previously senior & respected people can also lose their grip on what's real.


    https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1476162839626797062

    Completely batshit crazy.

    What makes even Piers Corbyn think the International Cricket Council can do anything?
    Yes, it seems a bit of an over-reaction to losing the Ashes. Slaughter, yes. But genocide?
    We've had posters on here saying cricket will die out as a result...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,285
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting video from Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry entitled "Vaccine hesitancy explained".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0ZY3VWYKzQ

    That is a load of straw man arguments lumped together.
    True. An intelligent person wouldn't take any notice of what these various media say in the first place. But I think the video still helps to explain why so many people are vaccine hesitant.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    IshmaelZ said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    I'm not sure this out-compete terminology is accurate, viruses co-exist all the time.

    I understood mutations to be totally random

    The mechanism behind mutation is random - errors in replication. However only some confer a survival advantage to the organism (more transmissible, pumps out more virus from the infected, drives the host towards risky behaviour*). These are the ones that take hold. Mistakes in copying happen all the time, but usually do not generate viable mutations.
    How do you know the "errors in replication are random"? All you are saying is you don't know what causes them.

    Well the idea of dna/rna transcription is that sometimes an inappropriate base gets inserted into the rna/dna, which can lead to the wrong residue in the resulting protein. I’m not an expert in why this happens, but I think it is essentially random. Happy to be corrected on this if you know different?
    I don't know different. What I am saying is that the term "random" is a declaration of our ignorance. Probabilities are subjective, not objective (I'm with de Finetti and Goode on this). Saying that some features in the the world are "random" is just an admission that we do not know what causes them. In other words it is a statement about ourselves, not about the external world.

    edited
    OK but you should be happy with "non-selected" as a substitute for "random," which is the point here, unless you think God or the Omega Point or something is driving the mutations.
    No. I tried substituting "non-selected" for "random" in turbotubbs's post and it doesn't make any better sense. Of course I think something drives the mutations but we don't know what it is. That's all that you can mean by calling it "random".
    By the way, I do not deny that the whole apparatus of probability theory is productive. Just how you interpret it is the issue. Perhaps that's what Einstein meant when he said "God does not play dice" (he was not religious).

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am sorry, my mind just will not be changed, I just think if the cases remain high, there's a high chance of mutation. I am just bemused why nobody seems concerned.

    Higher chance of mutation with higher cases, yes, although for me this is a global point more than a UK one. We've seen how borders are irrelevant with this thing. It's a real world shrinker.
    We could stop cutting down rainforests.
    Bolsonaro out next year? I think so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    https://www.science.org/content/article/where-did-weird-omicron-come

    Omicron clearly did not develop out of one of the earlier variants of concern, such as Alpha or Delta. Instead, it appears to have evolved in parallel—and in the dark. Omicron is so different from the millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes that have been shared publicly that pinpointing its closest relative is difficult, says Emma Hodcroft, a virologist at the University of Bern. It likely diverged early from other strains, she says. “I would say it goes back to mid-2020.”

    Thus is my point, there is nothing to stop another variant from appearing

    No, but one that evolves from Omicron that is simultaneously more transmissible and more virulent? That's the scenario that is being debated.
    I was talking about mutations to COVID. If the virus is around, it can mutate.

    My point is that not every case in the world is Omicron.
    It all started with this:

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Perhaps I made an incorrect assumption in thinking high cases referred to the UK. If there's going to be a mutation in the UK, it's going to be from Omicron.
    I never said the UK, the cases are going up everywhere! We had just been discussing other countries.

    My point is that unless every case of COVID in the world is Omicron, another variant that isn't Omicron could in fact already exist. Which is what they think happened with this one.

    I simply think the complacency is off the scale with this one
    I honestly doubt you were thinking globally when you made that original statement. Yes, another variant could arise in another country where they don't have Omicron (although I doubt there will be many of those soon), but in that scenario case numbers in the UK would be irrelevant.
    Eh? Of course case numbers are relevant
    God this is tedious. But our omicron cases would soon disappear to be replaced by this other variant that you’re so worried about.
    It is not possible to predict the future of pandemics, but we cannot be hiding behind the curtains in fear of catching something at sometime in the future

    Life is for living and while governments have a duty to keep people safe, they also have a duty to respect individual freedoms

    I have no idea whether omicron will mutate or another more deadly strain appears, but the evidence is that boosters provide good protection and until that is disproved then we need to live our lives
    I thought life was what happened to you when you were busy making other plans?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    As I recall there were conniptions at one time about trhe use of convalescent plasma therapies - I forget the details btu the issue was that people were lingering for months with active covid infections possibly from more than one source as they stayed in hospital.

    Some were worried about it permitting recombination between viral strains which would give new permutations of mutations. Or is this my memory? (Also reassortment of whole genes if relevant to covid.)

    The other issue would be the possibility of virus evolution under limited immune system pressure allowing escape to new variants, like the effect of incomplete antibiotic courses allowing analogous evolution in bacteria of antibiotic resistance. But again I have not kept up with this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Not at all, no.

    The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.

    So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
    The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.

    The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
    The virus is endemic.

    If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
    You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.

    Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
    COVID would be closer to having a zero Flu strategy. It would be nice....

    For some reason I was reminded of a scientist who said that when we have worked out how to cure AIDS, on the way we will have found out how to cure most cancers, and made the common cold extinct.
    Nanobots in the bloodstream would probably do that.

    Then a sudden urge to buy Microsoft products.
    LOL

    On a serious note, I think he was largely right. By the time we have the ability to cure AIDS, we will have acquired, on the way, a vast amount of *fine* control over the human immune system.
    The Bio-N-tech bods have got an mRNA HIV vaccine heading to Phase I trials, based on the work they did with the Cov-19 vaccine.

    That will be something awesome to have come from the pandemic.
    Some of the work with MRNA "vaccines" and cancer is equally amazing. Show your immune system the cancer cell, and let it do the hard work of hunting down and eliminating it.

    I've said in the past that the progress made in the last two years may save more lives than Covid-19 has cost.

    In the long term.

    But then what we need to do is increase QoL for those who live longer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am sorry, my mind just will not be changed, I just think if the cases remain high, there's a high chance of mutation. I am just bemused why nobody seems concerned.

    Higher chance of mutation with higher cases, yes, although for me this is a global point more than a UK one. We've seen how borders are irrelevant with this thing. It's a real world shrinker.
    We could stop cutting down rainforests.
    Bolsonaro out next year? I think so.
    He'll get the chop?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266
    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus was probably "unlikely" to transfer from a bat to a human. Yet it did.

    I am afraid there's an awful lot of complacency around.

    Many would say the same about the amount of alarmism.
    ...has anyone heard from Leon?
    He's been around today.
    Am here. Just had a very busy Christmas and I am now - belatedly - completing my tax returns. UGH
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus was probably "unlikely" to transfer from a bat to a human. Yet it did.

    I am afraid there's an awful lot of complacency around.

    Many would say the same about the amount of alarmism.
    ...has anyone heard from Leon?
    He's been around today.
    Am here. Just had a very busy Christmas and I am now - belatedly - completing my tax returns. UGH
    I find mine consists of two questions.

    1) How much did you earn?

    2) When will you send it all to us?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266
    98,000 cases in Italy

    By a distance their biggest day ever
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    This is proper off-the-charts whacky: a complaint submitted to the ICC by Piers Corbyn & co claiming the vaccination program is a planned genocide.

    The co-applicants list is also a great example of how previously senior & respected people can also lose their grip on what's real.


    https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1476162839626797062

    Have you only just seen this - I saw it last night but having been away all day thought it would have already been mentioned.

    The funeral director is a great addition even before you see his "surname".

    @Endillion I think it's a supply and demand thing. You can't charge £3000 a time when you are burying 500+ people a time in the same mass grave.
    They've got to be windups, surely? McStay and Shotbolt?
    Don't think so

    I found John O'loony within a few seconds on google - he lives rather close to today's insanity...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    I am sorry, my mind just will not be changed, I just think if the cases remain high, there's a high chance of mutation. I am just bemused why nobody seems concerned.

    There are currently four endemic coronaviruses that cause common cold symptoms. At least one of them probably began in the human population as a pandemic with high mortality. Do you advocate restrictions to mitatage the risk that one of these common cold viruses could mutate again?
    "At least one of them probably began in the human population as a pandemic with high mortality."

    I don't think that's true. While it's certainly possible, it's equally likely they came from animals - particularly domesticated ones.

    I think it's probably fair to say that "One or more of them may have begun in the human population as a pandemic with high mortality."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus was probably "unlikely" to transfer from a bat to a human. Yet it did.

    I am afraid there's an awful lot of complacency around.

    Many would say the same about the amount of alarmism.
    ...has anyone heard from Leon?
    He's been around today.
    Popped in to tell us that France has loads of cases.
  • I think there is trouble ahead. Stay safe
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    I'm not sure this out-compete terminology is accurate, viruses co-exist all the time.

    I understood mutations to be totally random

    The mechanism behind mutation is random - errors in replication. However only some confer a survival advantage to the organism (more transmissible, pumps out more virus from the infected, drives the host towards risky behaviour*). These are the ones that take hold. Mistakes in copying happen all the time, but usually do not generate viable mutations.
    How do you know the "errors in replication are random"? All you are saying is you don't know what causes them.

    Well the idea of dna/rna transcription is that sometimes an inappropriate base gets inserted into the rna/dna, which can lead to the wrong residue in the resulting protein. I’m not an expert in why this happens, but I think it is essentially random. Happy to be corrected on this if you know different?
    I don't know different. What I am saying is that the term "random" is a declaration of our ignorance. Probabilities are subjective, not objective (I'm with de Finetti and Goode on this). Saying that some features in the the world are "random" is just an admission that we do not know what causes them. In other words it is a statement about ourselves, not about the external world.

    edited
    But the nature of the genetic code is that it's pretty far removed from the resiulting organism. Obviously it's not totally random in the sense that certain errors will be commoner than others (uptake of the wrong base pair). And imagine what happens if you hit the gene control sequence or the development control genes. So the results of the mutations aren't random in the sense that they have to have some relation to changes to what is there. You're far more likely to develop, say, skin cancer or be unable to smell cyanide or taste phenylthiourea than grow a complete leg on your head. But the original mutations are a long way from the biological effects. Like changing bits at random on a hard disk, actually.
    Not sure we're disagreeing. My beef is with the use and (mis)understanding of the word "random". See my reply to Ishmail.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Endillion said:

    This is proper off-the-charts whacky: a complaint submitted to the ICC by Piers Corbyn & co claiming the vaccination program is a planned genocide.

    The co-applicants list is also a great example of how previously senior & respected people can also lose their grip on what's real.


    https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1476162839626797062

    OMG, just look at one of the applicants.

    John O'Loony - Funeral Director & Activist.


    A funeral director campaigning against planned genocide? How incredibly shortsighted.
    He was apparently recently in an ICU with covid and complained that a consultant tried to give him remdesivir "to kill me off".

    https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1475452111777370114
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    rcs1000 said:

    MISTY said:

    Endillion said:

    MISTY said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting video from Konstantin Kisin of Triggernometry entitled "Vaccine hesitancy explained".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0ZY3VWYKzQ

    That is a load of straw man arguments lumped together.
    Vaccination hesitancy stems from the government.

    Why would we need restrictions if vaccines are so effective? Why do people need to be careful?

    If someone was selling you a car, and they said at the same time you needed insurance against it breaking down after a year, wouldn't you think twice about buying the thing in the first place?
    Car manufacturers make a lot of money on warranties, and we still need restrictions because not everyone is vaccinated yet.
    Tell that to the poor folk in Gibraltar. 100% vaccination. Lockdown for Christmas.

    If 100% vaccination truly did mean freedom, I'm sure all but the most nutty refusiks would fall into line. Is the government even promising that? or committing to it? Nope/

    They rule nothing out, as ever. And that means restrictions could be brought in post 100% vaccination.
    Oh?

    Are you lying again?

    https://www.gibraltar.gov.gi/press-releases/chief-ministers-script-live-statement-from-no-6-convent-place-9552021-7552

    There is no lockdown in Gibraltar.

    What, you don't think we know how to use Google?
    82.2% of the time people on here are too lazy to check each other's "facts".
    I've caught a few bare-faced lies, and even told one or two.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Leon said:

    98,000 cases in Italy

    By a distance their biggest day ever

    An excellent excuse for posting this video again:

    https://youtu.be/KxtGJsnLgSc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    98,000 cases in Italy

    By a distance their biggest day ever

    TBF, there's a fair amount of Xmas catch up in there (as there was with the UK). Italy's recorded numbers for the 26th and 27th were way below the 7 day average, with just 25k and 30k cases.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus was probably "unlikely" to transfer from a bat to a human. Yet it did.

    I am afraid there's an awful lot of complacency around.

    Many would say the same about the amount of alarmism.
    ...has anyone heard from Leon?
    Sadly
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Endillion said:

    This is proper off-the-charts whacky: a complaint submitted to the ICC by Piers Corbyn & co claiming the vaccination program is a planned genocide.

    The co-applicants list is also a great example of how previously senior & respected people can also lose their grip on what's real.


    https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1476162839626797062

    OMG, just look at one of the applicants.

    John O'Loony - Funeral Director & Activist.


    A funeral director campaigning against planned genocide? How incredibly shortsighted.
    He was apparently recently in an ICU with covid and complained that a consultant tried to give him remdesivir "to kill me off".

    https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1475452111777370114
    How does he know? Was that consultant working on commission for him?
  • Leon said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus was probably "unlikely" to transfer from a bat to a human. Yet it did.

    I am afraid there's an awful lot of complacency around.

    Many would say the same about the amount of alarmism.
    ...has anyone heard from Leon?
    He's been around today.
    Am here. Just had a very busy Christmas and I am now - belatedly - completing my tax returns. UGH
    How gauche.

    Do you not have accountants and financial advisers to do that for you?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am sorry, my mind just will not be changed, I just think if the cases remain high, there's a high chance of mutation. I am just bemused why nobody seems concerned.

    Higher chance of mutation with higher cases, yes, although for me this is a global point more than a UK one. We've seen how borders are irrelevant with this thing. It's a real world shrinker.
    We could stop cutting down rainforests.
    Bolsonaro out next year? I think so.
    He'll get the chop?
    Unfortunately we'll probably have to settle for voted out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am sorry, my mind just will not be changed, I just think if the cases remain high, there's a high chance of mutation. I am just bemused why nobody seems concerned.

    Higher chance of mutation with higher cases, yes, although for me this is a global point more than a UK one. We've seen how borders are irrelevant with this thing. It's a real world shrinker.
    We could stop cutting down rainforests.
    Bolsonaro out next year? I think so.
    He'll get the chop?
    Unfortunately we'll probably have to settle for voted out.
    Along hopefully with some of the more jungly types he hangs out with.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    98,000 cases in Italy

    By a distance their biggest day ever

    TBF, there's a fair amount of Xmas catch up in there (as there was with the UK). Italy's recorded numbers for the 26th and 27th were way below the 7 day average, with just 25k and 30k cases.
    And there's probably more to come. If you look at Italy's number from 25/12, it was 55k. Multiply that by 3 and you'd expect to get 165k over the 26, 27 and 28th. They actually reported 153k, so I'd expect some more catch up tomorrow.
  • The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266
    UK

    183,000 cases

    57 deaths

    1213 admits
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Not at all, no.

    The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.

    So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
    The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.

    The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
    The virus is endemic.

    If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
    You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.

    Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
    COVID would be closer to having a zero Flu strategy. It would be nice....

    For some reason I was reminded of a scientist who said that when we have worked out how to cure AIDS, on the way we will have found out how to cure most cancers, and made the common cold extinct.
    Nanobots in the bloodstream would probably do that.

    Then a sudden urge to buy Microsoft products.
    LOL

    On a serious note, I think he was largely right. By the time we have the ability to cure AIDS, we will have acquired, on the way, a vast amount of *fine* control over the human immune system.
    The Bio-N-tech bods have got an mRNA HIV vaccine heading to Phase I trials, based on the work they did with the Cov-19 vaccine.

    That will be something awesome to have come from the pandemic.
    Some of the work with MRNA "vaccines" and cancer is equally amazing. Show your immune system the cancer cell, and let it do the hard work of hunting down and eliminating it.

    I've said in the past that the progress made in the last two years may save more lives than Covid-19 has cost.

    In the long term.

    But then what we need to do is increase QoL for those who live longer.
    Legalise heroin?
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    edited December 2021
    Deleted
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    183,037 cases....57 deaths.
  • pingping Posts: 3,724
    Leon said:

    UK

    183,000 cases

    57 deaths

    1213 admits

    Ouch
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    rcs1000 said:

    I am sorry, my mind just will not be changed, I just think if the cases remain high, there's a high chance of mutation. I am just bemused why nobody seems concerned.

    There are currently four endemic coronaviruses that cause common cold symptoms. At least one of them probably began in the human population as a pandemic with high mortality. Do you advocate restrictions to mitatage the risk that one of these common cold viruses could mutate again?
    "At least one of them probably began in the human population as a pandemic with high mortality."

    I don't think that's true. While it's certainly possible, it's equally likely they came from animals - particularly domesticated ones.

    I think it's probably fair to say that "One or more of them may have begun in the human population as a pandemic with high mortality."
    Sorry, that was just badly phrased. I meant that when it first hit the human population, it caused high mortality, not that it emerged directly in humans. The theory that the 'Russian flu' pandemic at the end of the 19th century was caused by OC43 is quite credible.

    In general, it seems intuitively correct that a novel respiratory virus will always spell trouble for vulnerable people who've never been exposed to it before and will not have any level of pre-existing immunity, so I would assume that every endemic respiratory virus in circulation was at one time responsible for a lot of deaths.
  • 1,751 admitted in England on the 27th.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.
  • 183,037 cases....57 deaths.

    @Alistair predicted 200,000 cases back in July.

    Absolute legend.
  • The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
  • We're in trouble.
  • A further 183,037 cases of Covid-19 have been reported across the UK, a new daily record, which includes five days' worth of data for Northern Ireland. A further 57 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive test.

    https://twitter.com/LBCNews/status/1476252886036320257
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266

    1,751 admitted in England on the 27th.

    That is concerning. However deaths have not taken off at all - yet.

    It will be *interesting* to see the ICU stats
  • Competition Update - no change:

    Boosters reported today: 325,087
    Highest Boosters to date: 968,665 (22/12)
    Nearest estimate: @Northern_Al 963,451
    Next nearest: @MattW (986,000)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    Leon said:

    UK

    183,000 cases

    57 deaths

    1213 admits

    Ouch
    Are those bad figures? Genuine q. I thought cases didn't matter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    We're in trouble.

    What trouble?
  • The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    Miss the baby yoda me do....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    We're in trouble.

    57 deaths, including those who might have tested positive a couple of weeks ago and crashed their car driving home drunk from the pub.

    A good ‘flu season is a couple of hundred a day, dying of the ‘flu.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Leon said:

    1,751 admitted in England on the 27th.

    That is concerning. However deaths have not taken off at all - yet.

    It will be *interesting* to see the ICU stats
    Numbers requiring ventilation not going anywhere. Points to lots of incidental admissions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266
    edited December 2021

    The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    The latest Grand Tour was so bad I can only presume they were meant to film in France - as it was all about French cars. Then Covid scotched it at the last minute and they had to rescript it and shoot it in random parts of Wales, odd bits of southern England, etc

    It made no sense, therefore, and it was lamentable. Unfunny and incoherent. I do detect the dead hand of corona
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    RobD said:

    We're in trouble.

    What trouble?
    Something's come along and it's burst our bubble.
    Is it bad that I got that ‘90s music reference before @TheScreamingEagles?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    We're in trouble.

    What trouble?
    Something's come along and it's burst our bubble.
    Those regulations are long since abolished.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    The latest Grand Tour was so bad I can only presume they were meant to film in France - which makes sense, as it was all about French cars. Then Covid scotched it at the last minute and they had to rescript it and shoot it in random parts of Wales, odd bits of southern England, etc

    It made no sense and it was lamentable
    Did you watch the Top Gear Christmas special.....that made the Grand Tour episode seem genius.

    Drag out to an hour driving some Christmas trees from Wales to Bath......that was the "special".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    98,000 cases in Italy

    By a distance their biggest day ever

    Welcome back. Thank you for trawling the global media to bring us those cute, heartwarming stories.

    Great way to avoid those tax returns.

    For example I find that those pizza delivery leaflets become super interesting just before I am about to go for a run.
  • Incidental admissions, I've heard that excuse before.

    I am very worried.
  • The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    Miss the baby yoda me do....
    Same.
  • Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    We're in trouble.

    What trouble?
    Something's come along and it's burst our bubble.
    Is it bad that I got that ‘90s music reference before @TheScreamingEagles?
    No.
  • Leon said:

    The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    The latest Grand Tour was so bad I can only presume they were meant to film in France - as it was all about French cars. Then Covid scotched it at the last minute and they had to rescript it and shoot it in random parts of Wales, odd bits of southern England, etc

    It made no sense, therefore, and it was lamentable. Unfunny and incoherent. I do detect the dead hand of corona
    I hope it means we see more Clarkson's farm, now that was great, especially during the pandemic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Smashed it, 183k my peak est was 200k but in the new year
  • Leon said:

    The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    The latest Grand Tour was so bad I can only presume they were meant to film in France - as it was all about French cars. Then Covid scotched it at the last minute and they had to rescript it and shoot it in random parts of Wales, odd bits of southern England, etc

    It made no sense, therefore, and it was lamentable. Unfunny and incoherent. I do detect the dead hand of corona
    I hope it means we see more Clarkson's farm, now that was great, especially during the pandemic.
    They should have done a Christmas special.
  • Celebrating cases and an increased chance of mutation, what an odd world
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Isn't the money coming from the schools themselves? (Unless US high schools are very different from UK ones.)

    "Parents believing a book violates the bill may demand school officials remove it within 30 days. If the book is not removed during this time, the school employee tasked with getting rid of it will be terminated —subject to due process— and prohibited from working at another school for at least two years

    Parents may then seek “monetary damages,” according to the bill, including a minimum of $10,000 for each day the challenged book is not removed."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • We have a problem with boosters...

    .325,087 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 258,399
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 24,851
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 34,060
    NI 7,777
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Celebrating cases and an increased chance of mutation, what an odd world

    Who is celebrating either of those things?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    UK Local R

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    England and Scotland - third doses to go

    image
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    COVID-19: UK reports record 183,037 new coronavirus cases - including delayed data from Northern Ireland http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-record-183037-new-coronavirus-cases-including-delayed-data-from-northern-ireland-12505789
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,785

    Any runners: what shoes do you like?

    The shoes choose the runner, Mr Battery
  • 12% positively rate, so the real number of cases must be much higher than the reported 183k (i.e. the underestimate must be higher than usual).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited December 2021

    Incidental admissions, I've heard that excuse before.

    I am very worried.

    It is not an excuse

    The fact someone goes into hospital as a result of a car accident or other non covid medical emergency and then tests positive for omicron is relevant to someone who is admitted with omicron and is seriously ill because of it

    Furthermore as we know London has a real problem with the unvaccinated and it is another statistic that is important in considering the present state of the pandemic

    You do need to try to be less panic struck and look for the positives
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Unsurprisingly. Banning books gives them a certain cachet amongst young people.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/23/us-book-bans-conservative-parents-reading
  • Back to the media discussing lockdowns.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266

    Leon said:

    The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    The latest Grand Tour was so bad I can only presume they were meant to film in France - as it was all about French cars. Then Covid scotched it at the last minute and they had to rescript it and shoot it in random parts of Wales, odd bits of southern England, etc

    It made no sense, therefore, and it was lamentable. Unfunny and incoherent. I do detect the dead hand of corona
    I hope it means we see more Clarkson's farm, now that was great, especially during the pandemic.
    They should have done a Christmas special.
    How can you do a second series of Clarkson's Farm that will be anywhere near as good as the first?

    I'm glad they are making a new season (apparently), but my guess is it won't be a patch on the original

    The glory of the first season was Clarkson genuinely doing something hard, worthwhile and desirable and understandably getting it all wrong (because it is seriously difficult)

    And of course all the characters were new and splendid, from Caleb to Gerald to the hot but bored Irish wife

    Supremely hard to pull it off again
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093

    We have a problem with boosters...

    .325,087 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 258,399
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 24,851
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 34,060
    NI 7,777

    Bank Holiday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Case summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Hospitals

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Deaths

    Lots of reporting delay

    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • Leading Italian anti-vaxxer dies...

    ...of covid.

    Who would have thunk it could happen?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Unsurprisingly. Banning books gives them a certain cachet amongst young people.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/23/us-book-bans-conservative-parents-reading
    Local bookseller on a book which wasn't even in the school library (except as an ebook):

    '“It was not easy to find a box full of 33 Snowfish, but we did,” he continues. “We sold all that we bought, and we kept a couple as loaners because we wanted to make sure any students in the community could see what the fuss was about. There will always be some around.”

    It’s now easier than ever to read 33 Snowfish in Spotsylvania county [...]'
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Eabhal said:

    Any runners: what shoes do you like?

    The shoes choose the runner, Mr Battery
    Not quite but not far off. You really need to go to a proper running shop so that someone who knows what to look for can identify the appropriate style of shoe for your running style and your feet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    I would personally be wary of reading too much into case numbers right now. For a start, there's a lot of catch up in there. Secondly, most people will have taken LFTs before seeing relatives on Christmas Day. Negative tests will be discarded. Positive ones will (often) be recorded.

    Yes, Omicron is growing (in the UK as elsewhere), but it probably isn't exploding quite to the levels shown in these numbers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Isn't the money coming from the schools themselves? (Unless US high schools are very different from UK ones.)

    "Parents believing a book violates the bill may demand school officials remove it within 30 days. If the book is not removed during this time, the school employee tasked with getting rid of it will be terminated —subject to due process— and prohibited from working at another school for at least two years

    Parents may then seek “monetary damages,” according to the bill, including a minimum of $10,000 for each day the challenged book is not removed."
    Oh how I wish I could have asked my parents to challenge Return of the Native during A- level!
    The alternative was Wuthering Heights, one of the finest tales.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Mandalorin without a baby yoda spin off series is rather disappointing...

    Agree, nearly as tedious as the latest special from The Grand Tour.
    The latest Grand Tour was so bad I can only presume they were meant to film in France - as it was all about French cars. Then Covid scotched it at the last minute and they had to rescript it and shoot it in random parts of Wales, odd bits of southern England, etc

    It made no sense, therefore, and it was lamentable. Unfunny and incoherent. I do detect the dead hand of corona
    I hope it means we see more Clarkson's farm, now that was great, especially during the pandemic.
    They should have done a Christmas special.
    How can you do a second series of Clarkson's Farm that will be anywhere near as good as the first?

    I'm glad they are making a new season (apparently), but my guess is it won't be a patch on the original

    The glory of the first season was Clarkson genuinely doing something hard, worthwhile and desirable and understandably getting it all wrong (because it is seriously difficult)

    And of course all the characters were new and splendid, from Caleb to Gerald to the hot but bored Irish wife

    Supremely hard to pull it off again
    Yes. I think restaurant and going organic.

    But yes.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Unsurprisingly. Banning books gives them a certain cachet amongst young people.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/23/us-book-bans-conservative-parents-reading
    Local bookseller on a book which wasn't even in the school library (except as an ebook):

    '“It was not easy to find a box full of 33 Snowfish, but we did,” he continues. “We sold all that we bought, and we kept a couple as loaners because we wanted to make sure any students in the community could see what the fuss was about. There will always be some around.”

    It’s now easier than ever to read 33 Snowfish in Spotsylvania county [...]'
    Oh it's publicity gold to an author when their book is banned - it wouldn't surprise me if agents sought to get their author's books banned just for the publicity it generates.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    1,751 admitted in England on the 27th.

    That is concerning. However deaths have not taken off at all - yet.

    It will be *interesting* to see the ICU stats
    Numbers requiring ventilation not going anywhere. Points to lots of incidental admissions.
    We could do with the figure for oxygenated as South Africa have previously provided.

    I simply can't envisage a scenario comparable to last year now. The only question is whether the battered health service can cope with a small spike. If it creaks we should be asking questions of ourselves.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Tonight Gallowgate is posting from Alnwick Castle
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Saw Don't Look Up yesterday. Excellent. Required viewing for PB especially.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,266
    I'm going to go out on a total fucking limb here and say that Omicron is quite infectious
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Isn't the money coming from the schools themselves? (Unless US high schools are very different from UK ones.)

    "Parents believing a book violates the bill may demand school officials remove it within 30 days. If the book is not removed during this time, the school employee tasked with getting rid of it will be terminated —subject to due process— and prohibited from working at another school for at least two years

    Parents may then seek “monetary damages,” according to the bill, including a minimum of $10,000 for each day the challenged book is not removed."
    Oh how I wish I could have asked my parents to challenge Return of the Native during A- level!
    The alternative was Wuthering Heights, one of the finest tales.
    Are you saying you're not a Hardy soul?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    If you haven't had omicron yet, I wouldn't firm up any January plans.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    183,037 cases....57 deaths.

    @Alistair predicted 200,000 cases back in July.

    Absolute legend.
    That was @Pulpstar
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    An Italian nurse writes on Reddit:

    I am from the north of Italy and many of you will remember how our area was deeply hit at the beginning. I did my part joining the frontline (at the time I was assigned to surgery) without any protection, I recall putting trash bags over my uniform, 3 surgical mask on top of each other and accessing those rooms full of pronated people with chin lesions hooked to ventilators I've never even saw during nursing school. People confused and gasping from the lack of O2, people allucinating with burning fever, people without proper ventilation because there where simply no more machines.

    At the time I had already seen my share of deaths on duty since I graduated a few years ago, but there was something hunting in watching a person suffocating, eyes rotating and all, without being able to help them. It was excruciating, but those people never had a choice, they were infected in a time when we didn't know much nor we had the instruments we have now, so there was just sadness for their situation in my heart and the best I could do for them was providing the best care I was capable of, every day at 101% and I always went back home exhausted but I knew I made my part in trying to make those people less miserable and maybe contributing in saving a few of them.

    As many of us who were deeply affected and risked for months without proper gear, I got some professional help to cope with so much death.

    But now things have changed. Now most of ICU patients are Unvaxxed people who will literally try to rip your gear off when you approach them with a syringe (insuline syringe, cortisonic drugs are heavily used to try to keep the inflammation under control but will increase your sugar blood level) because they fear you will inoculate them with the vaccine. I am talking about barely alive people chained to 6 iv pumps with heavy drugs, a ventilator, with a catheter in every hole. But still they will spit on you, calling you a "government sheep" for trying to keep them alive. Keeping on all the gear you guys largely saw on TV for hours and hours to provide care to those people is making me consider to quit my job and never hear of an hospital again, expecially because they are yeeting themself into coffins but they obviously still cause societal harm and this is always in the back of my mind when providing care to them. They had a choice, they had time, they choose to not to be vaccinated, they are using hospitals funds and being generally horrible with the staff, while on the first wave people were grateful at us trying to give them some dignity, and covid caregiving wasn't as developed as now so it's a paradox but Unvaxxed people have also better care than those who were hit and died with the first wave because now hospitals are equipped and staff is far more experienced in the matter.

    Do you have any advice to try to cope with those people? Sorry for any typo I've might have written, I am on my phone.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    I would personally be wary of reading too much into case numbers right now. For a start, there's a lot of catch up in there. Secondly, most people will have taken LFTs before seeing relatives on Christmas Day. Negative tests will be discarded. Positive ones will (often) be recorded.

    Yes, Omicron is growing (in the UK as elsewhere), but it probably isn't exploding quite to the levels shown in these numbers.

    Yes, it's actually less than I expected for the first day back from Christmas. I think numbers on Friday will be the worst as it will backfill today which is the first non-bank holiday and loads will have put off their PCR tests to avoid ruining a long weekend.

    I'm going to await the first and second week of January data to call a peak, simply there's just going to be fewer people testing right now for fear of ruining their time off.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    As we are discussing stupid things have we covered Oklahoma trying to use the Texas abortion fines to remove books from Oklahoma schools

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/587517-oklahoma-lawmaker-introduces-book-banning-bill

    I'm so looking forward to the removal of every book from every school and watching the teachers try and teach from nothing.

    Unsurprisingly. Banning books gives them a certain cachet amongst young people.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/23/us-book-bans-conservative-parents-reading
    No sh!t, Sherlock. How many copies of Spy Catcher were sold on cross-channel ferries and in Calais in the ‘90s, with the book stands describing it “The Book That’s Banned In Britain”?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:

    I would personally be wary of reading too much into case numbers right now. For a start, there's a lot of catch up in there. Secondly, most people will have taken LFTs before seeing relatives on Christmas Day. Negative tests will be discarded. Positive ones will (often) be recorded.

    Yes, Omicron is growing (in the UK as elsewhere), but it probably isn't exploding quite to the levels shown in these numbers.

    Absolutely. Saw a few people today. Several of whose relatives felt fine but took PCR tests before going to see granny just to be sure and tested positive.
  • Leon said:

    I'm going to go out on a total fucking limb here and say that Omicron is quite infectious

    A man walks into a bar....

    https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50997271/foriegn-super-spreaders-responsible-for-at-least-250-omicron-cases-in-thailand-as-total-new-variant-cases-surge-to-740/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    edited December 2021
    COVID summary

    - Cases still rising, though R has fallen back. R among the older groups is more prominent through

    image

    London's big R excursion, among the younger groups, seems to have collapsed. But cases are still rising in the older groups, there.

    image

    - Admissions are rising quite rapidly, following the increase in cases among the older groups
    - Deaths have lots of reporting delay still. Hard to say what is happening there, except that there will be a big fill in day for data at some point.

    image
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,129
    edited December 2021

    Leading Italian anti-vaxxer dies...

    ...of covid.

    Who would have thunk it could happen?

    I saw a post on twitter yesterday saying that "leading" antivaxxers are like people shouting 'fire' in a crowded theatre.

    Except they're worse; they're like people leading other people away from the fire exits in a burning theatre.
This discussion has been closed.