Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

There’s no need for a LAB-LD pact or progressive alliance – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageThere’s no need for a LAB-LD pact or progressive alliance – politicalbetting.com

For all the talk of some sort of arrangement between LAB and the LDs the electoral reality is that both parties will broadly be targeting very different sorts of seats at the next election with very little overlap.

Read the full story here

«13456710

Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    edited December 2021
    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.
  • I believe, the Lib Dems will gain a lot seats
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    I made that point last week.

    But for another example look at Buckinghamshire. The Lib Dems attack the richer seats while High Wycombe and Aylesbury (being poorer and more urban) tend towards Labour.

    The Tory party have a serious problem going forward as both opposition parties now know who to target, why and how...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    I know this won't endear me to OGH, but the LDs are, and have been since Clegg, diabolical rubbish. You'd be an idiot to vote for them, but the fact that many still do so illustrates their opportunity. It must set a record for open goals.

    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    I had another thought recently (they come occaisionally) Should Labour get very close to a majority, but need SNP support I'm pretty sure that the Tories would choose to bail them out rather than see the break-up of the Union.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    Even if a few farmers get upset - in the context of a GE, rather than a scandal by-election - will the likely result not be a lot of large majorities slightly reduced, rather than seats actually changing hands?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    Rural resident here: my key aim at the next election is to oust the useless sack of shit, and as such I'm focusing my efforts on who's likeliest to beat the Conservative here.
    I was happy enough last time just to vote for my then most-favoured party (Lib Dem), but I'm now happy to delve down the order of preference to the only party that might beat the Conservative incumbent (SNP).

    That shift doesn't have to be repeated in huge numbers to tip the balance as long as it comes with a few of the Con switchers/abstainers you describe.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    I believe, the Lib Dems will gain a lot seats

    This prediction is made before every GE.
    In 1997 and 2010 it was true.
  • There won't be a formal stand-down agreement and that is the right call. Punters don't like being told who or what to vote for by people who think they are too stupid to work it out themselves.

    So all that is needed is a clear understanding of where the realistic target seats are. Labour are carrying baggage both from Jezbollah and before where some activists think that they and only they are the path to righteousness. And the LibDems engaged in ludicrous and terribly organised flights of fancy during Swinson's lunacy.

    So I think that the two parties under the current leadership could reach the kind of arrangements we saw in Bexley and Shropshire. But the risk remains of arguments where beating the other becomes the higher priority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    How the LDs perform likely makes little difference to whether Starmer becomes PM or not. If he deprives the Tories of their majority alone or with the DUP, the SNP would likely prop him up anyway.

    However the more seats the LDs then took from the Tories in the South, the more Starmer would only need Davey for a majority in the Commons as Cameron relied on Clegg from 2010, if Labour had not won outright. The more too he could then ignore Sturgeon and Blackford's demands for an indyref2
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    I believe, the Lib Dems will gain a lot seats

    This prediction is made before every GE.
    In 1997 and 2010 it was true.
    Nope, in 2010 the Lib Dems had a net loss of seats.

    One of my biggest ever winners, selling the Lib Dems when they hit something like 101 seats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    Add fishing (commercial rather than the huntin', shootin' and fishin' kind, or the coarse kind). BiG G is a good example of someone who is much concerned for fishing, as am I in our different ways.
  • Ah the days of the Cleggasm, what a time to be alive.

    Lib Dems were targeting Witney, LOL.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target seats or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground.

    The only rural battleground is in Scottish Tory seats the SNP are targeting on the Borders or in the Northeast
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
    Hubris
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,680
    edited December 2021
    If I were Boris Johnson or the Con leader at the next GE the thing that would terrify me even more is the a party to the right of the Conservatives effectively handing the election to Labour.

    One thing Boris Johnson did well at GE2019 was to unite the right, that unwinds....
  • The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    edited December 2021
    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
    I am actually a believer that, when governing parties get kicked out, it is mostly because the government lost the election as opposed to the opposition winning it.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    Even if a few farmers get upset - in the context of a GE, rather than a scandal by-election - will the likely result not be a lot of large majorities slightly reduced, rather than seats actually changing hands?
    Given that it was me who highlighted the issue - the number of farmer votes is small, the number of people who like the area looking how it always did is large - and those votes tend to side with the views of farmers.

    It's highly unlikely that a lot of Tory rural seats will be lost in the next election but I can see the Lib Dems becoming a rural nimby party over the next few years and that will cause the Tories both a problem at the next election and at subsequent ones.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    Even if a few farmers get upset - in the context of a GE, rather than a scandal by-election - will the likely result not be a lot of large majorities slightly reduced, rather than seats actually changing hands?
    Given that it was me who highlighted the issue - the number of farmer votes is small, the number of people who like the area looking how it always did is large.

    It's highly unlikely that a lot of Tory rural seats will be lost in the next election but I can see the Lib Dems becoming a rural nimby party over the next few years and that will cause the Tories both a problem at the next election and at subsequent ones.
    Same for the SNP In Scotland, also PC, in opposition to UKG global free marketing. But not so relevant to LD/Lab of course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Finchley is the only seat I can think of where both Lab and LD might target the same constituency.
  • Rapid inflation, the Tories are headed for a summer of discontent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    If I were Boris Johnson or the Con leader at the next GE the thing that would terrify me even more is the a party to the right of the Conservatives effectively handing the election to Labour.

    One thing Boris Johnson did well at GE2019 was to unite the right, that unwinds....

    The biggest risk of that would be Liz Truss as Tory leader, with Farage likely returning to lead RefUK v ex Remainer, social liberal and ex Republican Liz
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target seats or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground.

    The only rural battleground is in Scottish Tory seats the SNP are targeting on the Borders or in the Northeast
    A lot of commuter belt is rural, particularly in the north and Scotland.
  • Ah the days of the Cleggasm, what a time to be alive.

    Lib Dems were targeting Witney, LOL.

    One moment in time, they thought they could win anywhere.

    When you believe the public are saying I will always love you, its easy to get led astray but then where do broken hearts go?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
    Hubris
    Even in 1997 Blair won barely any rural seats and the LDs only won a handful mainly in the southwest
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier
  • TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
    I am actually a believer that, when governing parties get kicked out, it is mostly because the government lost the election as opposed to the opposition winning it.
    Indeed, governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.

    Every change of government in this country in the last 70 years has been down to the government losing it.

    1964 - Profumo affair and other related issues

    1970 - Devaluation crisis

    1974 - 3 day week

    1979 - Winter of Discontent

    1997 - Black Friday, party splits, and sleaze

    2010 - Great Financial Crisis
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    Even if a few farmers get upset - in the context of a GE, rather than a scandal by-election - will the likely result not be a lot of large majorities slightly reduced, rather than seats actually changing hands?
    This is true for some seats but not others. Many constituencies in the North have a core small town which was marginally Labour last time, but have rural wards surrounding it which are heavily blue.
    Any shift in this, even from heavily to even mostly blue, could flip a number of seats.
    I guess the same must be true elsewhere, but, in general, the majorities are bigger there, yes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
    Hubris
    Even in 1997 Blair won barely any rural seats and the LDs only won a handful mainly in the southwest
    Midlothian, East Lothian, Dumfries, Inverness &c, Western Isles, lots of Ayrshire, etc. etc. were all Labour despite being partly or heavily rural. Andf the LDs won about 8 rural seats in Scotland alone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    The UK might be saying hold my pint (of Champagne).....we can beat the French....
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.

    To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
    More, it's what his fellow Conservative MPs will deserve. They can get rid of him now if they choose. They deserve to carrie the can if they don't.
  • Omnium said:

    I had another thought recently (they come occaisionally) Should Labour get very close to a majority, but need SNP support I'm pretty sure that the Tories would choose to bail them out rather than see the break-up of the Union.

    That's an interesting thought. They'd only need to promise to abstain on the budget and confidence motions. Think it is unlikely, and they'd be in the throes of a leadership contest too. Tend to think they'd rather force Labour to deal with the SNP.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
    I am actually a believer that, when governing parties get kicked out, it is mostly because the government lost the election as opposed to the opposition winning it.
    Indeed, governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.

    Every change of government in this country in the last 70 years has been down to the government losing it.

    1964 - Profumo affair and other related issues

    1970 - Devaluation crisis

    1974 - 3 day week

    1979 - Winter of Discontent

    1997 - Black Friday, party splits, and sleaze

    2010 - Great Financial Crisis
    2023 - where to begin, the reality of Brexit, impact of Covid, Sleaze, energy crisis, inflation.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    If I were Boris Johnson or the Con leader at the next GE the thing that would terrify me even more is the a party to the right of the Conservatives effectively handing the election to Labour.

    One thing Boris Johnson did well at GE2019 was to unite the right, that unwinds....

    The thing there that should terrify you is that discredited clown still being the leader.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Farooq said:

    The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.

    To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
    More, it's what his fellow Conservative MPs will deserve. They can get rid of him now if they choose. They deserve to carrie the can if they don't.
    Like what you did there…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.

    To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
    You can then see Starmer lead the UK back into a customs union then while still keeping us out of the single market and no free movement to appease the redwall
  • From a couple of threads ago:

    "One for @Sunil_Prasannan so he doesn’t miss a piece of track https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/london-overground-trains-to-call-at-battersea-park-station-on-new-years-eve-48837/ "

    Thanks @eek , but I already have done this, both in its original guise as part of the South London Line way back in the mid-90s, and also in its current guise as "rare track" in 2018.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
    I am actually a believer that, when governing parties get kicked out, it is mostly because the government lost the election as opposed to the opposition winning it.
    That seemed the case in the 70s. Brown certainly lost the election in 2010, but Cameron had a certain charm.

    Boris will most likely lose now entirely because he's made foolish and unimportant mistakes. The government is ok, and there's the odd real achievement.

  • TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
    I am actually a believer that, when governing parties get kicked out, it is mostly because the government lost the election as opposed to the opposition winning it.
    Indeed, governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.

    Every change of government in this country in the last 70 years has been down to the government losing it.

    1964 - Profumo affair and other related issues

    1970 - Devaluation crisis

    1974 - 3 day week

    1979 - Winter of Discontent

    1997 - Black Friday, party splits, and sleaze

    2010 - Great Financial Crisis
    There's an element of post hoc, ergo propter hoc about that though.

    There's always events happening, so you can always assign some event that caused the government to lose the election. You could rewrite history by imagining a government defeat at any of the elections they weren't defeated at and then assign a reason why they were:

    2017/19 - Brexit divisions
    2015 - Austerity
    2005 - Iraq
    2001 - Fuel crisis/Dotcom crash
    1992 - Recession
    1983 - Unemployment

    [I'm struggling for 87 but I was only 4 years old then, I'm sure someone could think of something]
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    HYUFD said:

    The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.

    To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
    You can then see Starmer lead the UK back into a customs union then while still keeping us out of the single market and no free movement to appease the redwall
    You're still talking about Brexit?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    edited December 2021

    There won't be a formal stand-down agreement and that is the right call. Punters don't like being told who or what to vote for by people who think they are too stupid to work it out themselves.

    So all that is needed is a clear understanding of where the realistic target seats are. Labour are carrying baggage both from Jezbollah and before where some activists think that they and only they are the path to righteousness. And the LibDems engaged in ludicrous and terribly organised flights of fancy during Swinson's lunacy.

    So I think that the two parties under the current leadership could reach the kind of arrangements we saw in Bexley and Shropshire. But the risk remains of arguments where beating the other becomes the higher priority.

    I broadly agree, though i think the more serious issue will be in seats where with the best will in the world it's hard to decide who has the best chance. The recent MRP identified a host of Tory seats in the SW where they are projected to hold on by slim majorities over both Lab and LD. If you have a seat with, say:

    Con 40
    Lab 33
    LD 27

    then Lab is going to say "we're reasonably close 2nd, give us a clear run", and the LDs are going to say "only we can win over Tory voters, give us a clear run". It would be helpful if a little quiet discussion went on over these seats.

    You also have seats like
    Con 60
    LD 20
    Lab 15
    Oth 5

    where tactical voting is just pointless - the Conservatives win anyway so people may as well vote for who they like best.

    What is especially important, though, is that we see no more stuff like Uxbridge. The 2017 position was Con (Johnson) 51, Lab 40, LD 4, but the LDs still put out "winning here" leaflets and got up to.. 6.3. Conversely we shouldn't see Labour doing it as happened in North Shropshire, where we could all see it was nonsense. Both examples were I think driiven by enthusiastic candidates and local parties, but that's why a steer is needed from HQ.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Jesus Christ how I hate these twats who think they are fearless magnificent fcking edgelords because they can stare unflinchingly at the prospect of GOING TO THE PUB, in extreme cases WITHOUT A MASK, while their enemies cower and soil themselves in terror. It would be good to have some sort of benchmark from these intrepid heroes so we can see what we are up against. Does Hodges skydive? Is he into extreme mountaineering? Or does his courage only run to popping in to the Dog and Duck and ordering the slow roast pork belly with braised fennel? We should be told.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    HYUFD said:

    The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.

    To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
    You can then see Starmer lead the UK back into a customs union then while still keeping us out of the single market and no free movement to appease the redwall
    The whole problem with sane Brexit approaches is that we can't have access to the EU's markets without Freedom of movement.

    And no-one is willing to fix our benefits system and spend the time educating people as to what Freedom of Movement meant outside of the insanity we managed to create in Britain.
  • A little reminder:

    According to my calculations (which are SOMETIMES correct!), the "Progressive Alliance" easily, er, "won" GE 2019!

    "What is you on about, Sunil?" I hear you cry!

    Well, the Progressive Parties won 52.20% of the popular vote, the Right-wing Reactionaries won only 46.83%, and others and independents won 0.97%.

    "Show your workings".

    OK:

    Labour 32.08
    LDs 11.55
    SNP 3.88
    Greens (all UK sections) 2.70
    SF 0.57
    PC 0.48
    APNI 0.42
    SDLP 0.37
    Yorks 0.09 (yes, they are down as centre-left)
    TIGs 0.03
    PBP 0.02
    Northeast 0.01(yes, they are down as centre-left)
    Mebyon Kernow 0.01

    TOTAL 52.20%


    Conservative 43.63
    Brexit 2.01
    DUP 0.76
    UUP 0.29
    UKIP 0.07
    Aontu 0.03 (Republicans, but socially conservative)
    CPA 0.02
    EDP 0.01
    Libertarian 0.01

    TOTAL 46.83%


    OTHERS 0.97%
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    From a couple of threads ago:

    "One for @Sunil_Prasannan so he doesn’t miss a piece of track https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/london-overground-trains-to-call-at-battersea-park-station-on-new-years-eve-48837/ "

    Thanks @eek , but I already have done this, both in its original guise as part of the South London Line way back in the mid-90s, and also in its current guise as "rare track" in 2018.

    I, for one, would like to read your comfortable railway discourses again Sunil.
  • IanB2 said:

    If I were Boris Johnson or the Con leader at the next GE the thing that would terrify me even more is the a party to the right of the Conservatives effectively handing the election to Labour.

    One thing Boris Johnson did well at GE2019 was to unite the right, that unwinds....

    The thing there that should terrify you is that discredited clown still being the leader.

    I'm already past terrified.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Damn, is that twice in a week that one finds himself in agreement with Mr Hodges?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    From a couple of threads ago:

    "One for @Sunil_Prasannan so he doesn’t miss a piece of track https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/london-overground-trains-to-call-at-battersea-park-station-on-new-years-eve-48837/ "

    Thanks @eek , but I already have done this, both in its original guise as part of the South London Line way back in the mid-90s, and also in its current guise as "rare track" in 2018.

    I'm glad you've done it being the completist that you are - wouldn't want you to miss what is a rare chance.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    IshmaelZ said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Jesus Christ how I hate these twats who think they are fearless magnificent fcking edgelords because they can stare unflinchingly at the prospect of GOING TO THE PUB, in extreme cases WITHOUT A MASK, while their enemies cower and soil themselves in terror. It would be good to have some sort of benchmark from these intrepid heroes so we can see what we are up against. Does Hodges skydive? Is he into extreme mountaineering? Or does his courage only run to popping in to the Dog and Duck and ordering the slow roast pork belly with braised fennel? We should be told.
    Sorry @malcolmg but you've lost your number 1 spot for magnificent sweary rageposts.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target seats or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground.

    The only rural battleground is in Scottish Tory seats the SNP are targeting on the Borders or in the Northeast
    "even on current polls would return to the Tories" - on current polls (then and now) it didn't go LD 3 weeks ago either.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Surely that applies to all?
    We want the science which supports our feelings?
    Hence Sweden and Great Barrington Declaration.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    The UK might be saying hold my pint (of Champagne).....we can beat the French....
    Dunno. Possible. But our death rate is now way lower than theirs, suggesting that they do have more of a problem - Delta PLUS Omicron, for a start

    Also they have a higher vax rate and a much more stringent vaxport regime (we don't really have one), yet still their numbers soar over ours

    I hope Boris shows some vertebrae and continues with the relaxed British - or English - approach. We just have to weather the storm and let omicron become endemic. Though we should be making the unvaxxed suffer, financially
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    dixiedean said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Surely that applies to all?
    We want the science which supports our feelings?
    Hence Sweden and Great Barrington Declaration.
    No it doesn't.
  • France is scary, I am concerned
  • France is scary, I am concerned

    I've been saying that for decades.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Jesus Christ how I hate these twats who think they are fearless magnificent fcking edgelords because they can stare unflinchingly at the prospect of GOING TO THE PUB, in extreme cases WITHOUT A MASK, while their enemies cower and soil themselves in terror. It would be good to have some sort of benchmark from these intrepid heroes so we can see what we are up against. Does Hodges skydive? Is he into extreme mountaineering? Or does his courage only run to popping in to the Dog and Duck and ordering the slow roast pork belly with braised fennel? We should be told.
    Sorry @malcolmg but you've lost your number 1 spot for magnificent sweary rageposts.
    Turnip

  • @IshmaelZ are you okay buddy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    The UK might be saying hold my pint (of Champagne).....we can beat the French....
    Dunno. Possible. But our death rate is now way lower than theirs, suggesting that they do have more of a problem - Delta PLUS Omicron, for a start

    Also they have a higher vax rate and a much more stringent vaxport regime (we don't really have one), yet still their numbers soar over ours

    I hope Boris shows some vertebrae and continues with the relaxed British - or English - approach. We just have to weather the storm and less omicron become endemic. Though we should be making the unvaxxed suffer, financially
    I think we will see a big uptick in the numbers, especially 2/3rd of Jan, because of all the mixing over Christmas and New Year, but also because people will go nuts on testing themselves.

    I am not going to be surprised if the official case number for a single day hits 200k.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Andy_JS said:

    Finchley is the only seat I can think of where both Lab and LD might target the same constituency.

    Wimbledon?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:



    I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.

    Joe Biden
    I think you have me.
    I am actually a believer that, when governing parties get kicked out, it is mostly because the government lost the election as opposed to the opposition winning it.
    Indeed, governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them.

    Every change of government in this country in the last 70 years has been down to the government losing it.

    1964 - Profumo affair and other related issues

    1970 - Devaluation crisis

    1974 - 3 day week

    1979 - Winter of Discontent

    1997 - Black Friday, party splits, and sleaze

    2010 - Great Financial Crisis
    There's an element of post hoc, ergo propter hoc about that though.

    There's always events happening, so you can always assign some event that caused the government to lose the election. You could rewrite history by imagining a government defeat at any of the elections they weren't defeated at and then assign a reason why they were:

    2017/19 - Brexit divisions
    2015 - Austerity
    2005 - Iraq
    2001 - Fuel crisis/Dotcom crash
    1992 - Recession
    1983 - Unemployment

    [I'm struggling for 87 but I was only 4 years old then, I'm sure someone could think of something]
    I am certain Blair would have won whatever, and probably Cameron too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Official now:

    "PARIS, Dec 29 (Reuters) - France is seeing a "tsunami" of COVID-19 infections, with 208,000 cases reported over the past 24 hours, a new national and European record, Health Minister Olivier Veran told lawmakers on Wednesday."


    208.000


    https://twitter.com/Crof/status/1476220023685271555?s=20
  • Leon said:

    Official now:

    "PARIS, Dec 29 (Reuters) - France is seeing a "tsunami" of COVID-19 infections, with 208,000 cases reported over the past 24 hours, a new national and European record, Health Minister Olivier Veran told lawmakers on Wednesday."


    208.000


    https://twitter.com/Crof/status/1476220023685271555?s=20

    I blame the British....
  • There won't be a formal stand-down agreement and that is the right call. Punters don't like being told who or what to vote for by people who think they are too stupid to work it out themselves.

    So all that is needed is a clear understanding of where the realistic target seats are. Labour are carrying baggage both from Jezbollah and before where some activists think that they and only they are the path to righteousness. And the LibDems engaged in ludicrous and terribly organised flights of fancy during Swinson's lunacy.

    So I think that the two parties under the current leadership could reach the kind of arrangements we saw in Bexley and Shropshire. But the risk remains of arguments where beating the other becomes the higher priority.

    I broadly agree, though i think the more serious issue will be in seats where with the best will in the world it's hard to decide who has the best chance. The recent MRP identified a host of Tory seats in the SW where they are projected to hold on by slim majorities over both Lab and LD. If you have a seat with, say:

    Con 40
    Lab 33
    LD 27

    then Lab is going to say "we're reasonably close 2nd, give us a clear run", and the LDs are going to say "only we can win over Tory voters, give us a clear run". It would be helpful if a little quiet discussion went on over these seats.

    You also have seats like
    Con 60
    LD 20
    Lab 15
    Oth 5

    where tactical voting is just pointless - the Conservatives win anyway so people may as well vote for who they like best.

    What is especially important, though, is that we see no more stuff like Uxbridge. The 2017 position was Con (Johnson) 51, Lab 40, LD 4, but the LDs still put out "winning here" leaflets and got up to.. 6.3. Conversely we shouldn't see Labour doing it as happened in North Shropshire, where we could all see it was nonsense. Both examples were I think driiven by enthusiastic candidates and local parties, but that's why a steer is needed from HQ.
    Indeed. There has to be at least informal discussions about targeting. Hopefully most seats will be clear- even if like in NS many Labour people were outraged by the suggestion.

    I had a very terse couple of messages from a good friend of mine who is very active in Labour who was seriously upset with the "claim" of the seat being a LD target. I pointed out never won even in 97 or 01 landslides, recent LD local election successes and the demographic of the seat and he calmed down - and then was "ok you were right" afterwards.

    Similar have to be done and that includes repelling silly LD advances into seats like Kensington and Chelsea during Swinson's "leadership". We don't remove the Tories and the damage they are doing without people being given clear choices.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    @IshmaelZ are you okay buddy.

    Yes sorry, just a yellow-bellied shirker miffed at being outed by DAN THE MAGNIFICENT.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    The UK might be saying hold my pint (of Champagne).....we can beat the French....
    Dunno. Possible. But our death rate is now way lower than theirs, suggesting that they do have more of a problem - Delta PLUS Omicron, for a start

    Also they have a higher vax rate and a much more stringent vaxport regime (we don't really have one), yet still their numbers soar over ours

    I hope Boris shows some vertebrae and continues with the relaxed British - or English - approach. We just have to weather the storm and less omicron become endemic. Though we should be making the unvaxxed suffer, financially
    I think we will see a big uptick in the numbers, especially 2/3rd of Jan, because of all the mixing over Christmas and New Year, but also because people will go nuts on testing themselves.

    I am not going to be surprised if the official case number for a single day hits 200k.
    Yes, highly possible. First two weeks of January should be the peak
  • Wasn't last week the peak? I see goalposts shifting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    I thought UK had already broken 300k?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    Leon said:

    Official now:

    "PARIS, Dec 29 (Reuters) - France is seeing a "tsunami" of COVID-19 infections, with 208,000 cases reported over the past 24 hours, a new national and European record, Health Minister Olivier Veran told lawmakers on Wednesday."


    208.000


    https://twitter.com/Crof/status/1476220023685271555?s=20

    I blame the British....
    During this period of our French friends uncertainty I think it's only reasonable that we restore our governance of Calais.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    Wasn't last week the peak? I see goalposts shifting.

    Why do you keep making this silly straw man posts? As far as I cam remember nobody has said Omicron has peaked in the UK, and if they have, it certainly isn't a widely held view on here.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    France is scary, I am concerned

    I've been saying that for decades.
    Another poltroon, then.

    ...he which hath no stomach to this fight,
    Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
    And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
    We would not die in that man's company
    That fears his fellowship to die with us.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    The UK might be saying hold my pint (of Champagne).....we can beat the French....
    Dunno. Possible. But our death rate is now way lower than theirs, suggesting that they do have more of a problem - Delta PLUS Omicron, for a start

    Also they have a higher vax rate and a much more stringent vaxport regime (we don't really have one), yet still their numbers soar over ours

    I hope Boris shows some vertebrae and continues with the relaxed British - or English - approach. We just have to weather the storm and less omicron become endemic. Though we should be making the unvaxxed suffer, financially
    I think we will see a big uptick in the numbers, especially 2/3rd of Jan, because of all the mixing over Christmas and New Year, but also because people will go nuts on testing themselves.

    I am not going to be surprised if the official case number for a single day hits 200k.
    Yes, highly possible. First two weeks of January should be the peak
    If the incubation period for omicron is just 3 days, I think we'll see the peak of new cases very shortly. Or two peaks - the Christmas peak right now, and the back to work peak first week of January.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,803
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Jesus Christ how I hate these twats who think they are fearless magnificent fcking edgelords because they can stare unflinchingly at the prospect of GOING TO THE PUB, in extreme cases WITHOUT A MASK, while their enemies cower and soil themselves in terror. It would be good to have some sort of benchmark from these intrepid heroes so we can see what we are up against. Does Hodges skydive? Is he into extreme mountaineering? Or does his courage only run to popping in to the Dog and Duck and ordering the slow roast pork belly with braised fennel? We should be told.
    Sorry @malcolmg but you've lost your number 1 spot for magnificent sweary rageposts.
    Turnip

    More rutabuga in your case.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    I thought UK had already broken 300k?
    Not for a single day no. Not even close.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Rural seats = key battleground.

    As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.

    No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.

    The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
    Hubris
    Even in 1997 Blair won barely any rural seats and the LDs only won a handful mainly in the southwest
    Midlothian, East Lothian, Dumfries, Inverness &c, Western Isles, lots of Ayrshire, etc. etc. were all Labour despite being partly or heavily rural. Andf the LDs won about 8 rural seats in Scotland alone.
    I was talking England. In England rural seats tend to be Tory safe seats, in Scotland and Wales they are often marginals the Tories sometimes win
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Wasn't last week the peak? I see goalposts shifting.

    Why do you keep making this silly straw man posts? As far as I cam remember nobody has said Omicron has peaked in the UK, and if they have, it certainly isn't a widely held view on here.
    There were certainly some claims that Omicron peaked around December 15th in LONDON. I don't remember any such claims for the UK as a whole, but I am willing to be corrected if Monsieur Le Horse Battery can adduce the evidence
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier

    I thought UK had already broken 300k?
    Not for a single day no. Not even close.
    We'll find out at 5pm. They haven't counted all the boxing day cases yet.
  • Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    Wasn't last week the peak? I see goalposts shifting.

    Why do you keep making this silly straw man posts? As far as I cam remember nobody has said Omicron has peaked in the UK, and if they have, it certainly isn't a widely held view on here.
    There were certainly some claims that Omicron peaked around December 15th in LONDON. I don't remember any such claims for the UK as a whole, but I am willing to be corrected if Monsieur Le Horse Battery can adduce the evidence
    Even in regards to London, I would be very cautious about that, as lots of people will have gone home for the holidays.
  • geoffw said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2h
    When many people say "we have to follow this science" they don't mean it. What they actually mean is "we have to follow the science that points us towards further restrictions, because that's the science that makes us feel safer". Which is fine. But at least be honest.

    Jesus Christ how I hate these twats who think they are fearless magnificent fcking edgelords because they can stare unflinchingly at the prospect of GOING TO THE PUB, in extreme cases WITHOUT A MASK, while their enemies cower and soil themselves in terror. It would be good to have some sort of benchmark from these intrepid heroes so we can see what we are up against. Does Hodges skydive? Is he into extreme mountaineering? Or does his courage only run to popping in to the Dog and Duck and ordering the slow roast pork belly with braised fennel? We should be told.
    Sorry @malcolmg but you've lost your number 1 spot for magnificent sweary rageposts.
    Turnip

    More rutabuga in your case.

    That's @StuartDickson , surely?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911

    Leon said:

    Official now:

    "PARIS, Dec 29 (Reuters) - France is seeing a "tsunami" of COVID-19 infections, with 208,000 cases reported over the past 24 hours, a new national and European record, Health Minister Olivier Veran told lawmakers on Wednesday."


    208.000


    https://twitter.com/Crof/status/1476220023685271555?s=20

    I blame the British....
    They can't blame us; Petit Putin closed the border.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 709

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Wasn't the theory that the mutations come from people who fight Covid for weeks in ICU?

    Not sure what the basis for that was, but the shorter stays on hospital for Omi would help a bit.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Yes, it's a concern, but I wouldn't sit and actively worry about it.
  • Wasn't last week the peak? I see goalposts shifting.

    Why do you keep making this silly straw man posts? As far as I cam remember nobody has said Omicron has peaked in the UK, and if they have, it certainly isn't a widely held view on here.
    Some people have tentatively identified a peak in inner London boroughs for the 15th. Even if that is the case you'd expect the peak for the UK as a whole to be later as Omicron spreads out of London.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Mid afternoon all :)

    Very quiet in the world of work so I've been allowed out early. East Ham High Street busy today and queues outside banks and post offices. Certainly in my locality no shortage of people wanting or needing the full High Street retail experience though one of our local kebab shops has been closed - the landlord went in on Christmas Day.

    Clearly, no rest for some.

    On topic, this has been done to death over the years - there'll be no pacts or alliances between Labour and Liberal Democrat - there may be some between Liberal Democrat and Green.

    In terms of the tactical voting conundrum, the LDs start from a position of having many fewer "possible" gains - if we're being honest 20-25 maximum. Squeezing down the Labour vote in seats like Cheltenham, St Ives, Cheadle and a few others will help.

    In the vast majority of seats, Labour start in second (as they were in North Shropshire) and I suspect the LD organisation in many of those areas is moribund so the question is whether there are enough LD or Green supporters willing to vote Labour tactically to make a difference.

    In 1997, the Labour vote was so powerful it stopped the LDs making further gains as the Conservative vote collapsed - it's not inconceivable that could happen again but a more modest objective for the two parties would be 100 Conservative losses - 75 to Labour and 25 to the LDs/Greens.
  • Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Not at all, no.

    The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.

    So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
  • Because of a delay in receiving data for Northern Ireland, today's update is delayed. The current estimate for release is 5:00pm. Further updates will be provided here.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,485
    edited December 2021

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    I refer you to the reply I gave at the back end of the previous thread, and I'd like to emphasise the last sentence again. It is useless to worry over that which we have no control over.
    kyf_100 said:


    This is globally the case though, and far more likely to occur in a country that isn't boosted and whose original vaccines provide little to no protection. The fact is that Omicron is so contagious it is likely to sweep most of the world in short order, and even lockdowns are unlikely to prevent its spread - short of full, weld people into their apartment style lockdowns that will obliterate the global economy. Which is more of a concern to me than a possible mutation.

    I think it is a case of alea iacta est now, we only have to hope we roll a double six rather than snake eyes. But for the most part I have tried to stop worrying about things which I have no control over.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 5,188

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    The worst mutations seem to have come from individuals with chronic infections due to compromised immune systems. I am not sure that greater general community spread necessarily makes a significant impact on the likelihood of mutations via that route - and there is plenty of scientific evidence and theory to suggest that the worrisome mutations past and future have and will arise that way.

    It would be interesting to see any data on how omicron infections progress in the immune compromised.
  • Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Not at all, no.

    The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.

    So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
    The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.

    The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Yes, the more cases the more opportunities to mutate presumably. Not concerned nor (pace Hodges) actually bemerding myself, but I see no strong grounds for thinking we are any further on than the end of the beginning at this stage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.

    If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.

    Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.

    Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.

    To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
    You can then see Starmer lead the UK back into a customs union then while still keeping us out of the single market and no free movement to appease the redwall
    The whole problem with sane Brexit approaches is that we can't have access to the EU's markets without Freedom of movement.

    And no-one is willing to fix our benefits system and spend the time educating people as to what Freedom of Movement meant outside of the insanity we managed to create in Britain.
    It was not the benefits system which was the problem. It was downward pressure on working class wages and pressure on public services and housing free movement created. This was exacerbated by Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004 on migration from the Eastern European accession countries.

    The points system we now have is better
  • Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    Generally speaking I don't think it's the case that the variants have emerged at times of high case rates.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did

    By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Wasn't last week the peak? I see goalposts shifting.

    Why do you keep making this silly straw man posts? As far as I cam remember nobody has said Omicron has peaked in the UK, and if they have, it certainly isn't a widely held view on here.
    Some people have tentatively identified a peak in inner London boroughs for the 15th. Even if that is the case you'd expect the peak for the UK as a whole to be later as Omicron spreads out of London.
    image

    and

    image
This discussion has been closed.