Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.
If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.
Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.
Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.
To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
You can then see Starmer lead the UK back into a customs union then while still keeping us out of the single market and no free movement to appease the redwall
The whole problem with sane Brexit approaches is that we can't have access to the EU's markets without Freedom of movement.
And no-one is willing to fix our benefits system and spend the time educating people as to what Freedom of Movement meant outside of the insanity we managed to create in Britain.
It was not the benefits system which was the problem. It was downward pressure on working class wages and pressure on public services free movement created. This was exacerbated by Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004
Says someone not old enough to have seen the reality...
If what you say is true, why locally are the Poles far more aware of what they can and can't claim compared to a lot of locals.
France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier
I thought UK had already broken 300k?
Not for a single day no. Not even close.
We'll find out at 5pm. They haven't counted all the boxing day cases yet.
OWID Dec 27th.
(Hmm. OK - I see it is one of those added-together days when everyone has been at home, like some of the EU country stats after a weekend)
Being in a position to tickle Keating with 250k in a day would be fun, mind. Today he's been rebuking other people for 'misleading charts', of exactly the sort he's been circulating all year.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.
No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.
The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
Just asking, young HY, because I do not know. You state with your usual confidence that there is not a single rural seat in the top 50 targets for Lib Dems. Are these just the seats where the Lib Dems came second in 2019? Or has Conservative HQ provided you with their forecast of what these seats are now?
These things do change very quickly. Once upon a time I lived in a Lib Dem target seat. But then it was de-targeted, because it was not making enough progress. So it may be that the Lib Dems are now going to target rural seats - which would make sense, bearing in mind how this Conservative government has utterly betrayed the farmers, and given the green light for developers and their cronies to tear up the rural countryside.
France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier
I thought UK had already broken 300k?
Not for a single day no. Not even close.
We'll find out at 5pm. They haven't counted all the boxing day cases yet.
OWID Dec 27th:
That isn't correct. They have incorrectly scraped the data. That's 3 days of data, which we all released at the same time. The subtle clue is in the fact there were 2 days of 0 COVID cases according to their chart.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
Cite that the virus is endemic. We've seen you don't know what you're talking about already.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
If you want to quantify these things honestly (and I don't think you do), the UK is about 1% of the world population. So, all things being equal, we'd expect that any development happening somewhere randomly to have about a 1% chance of happening here.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
I've mentioned this before, but the changes in Conservative vote share across '79-'92 were pretty small, as were those across '15-'19.
The big changes in Conservative seats across each government were driven by how (spontaneously) organised the opposition vote was. A strong GTTO mood ('92 or '15) can drive the Conservative majority well down; if the opposition are fighting each other ('83 or '19), Conservatives waltz to a landslide.
That doesn't need a pact (though a mod and a wink in a backstreet Westminster bar can't do any harm). And the evidence of 2021's by-elections looks like that's the mood among the 55% again; though I'd like to see a Conservative held/Labour challenger marginal to be sure.
That ought to worry the Blue Team, especially since there's not a lot they can do about it.
Perusing the earlier thread, I was struck by the notion from @BartholomewRoberts that populism represented democracy.
It may well do but you can't govern a country based simply on what the largest minority wants at any given point.
Some politicians have a clear view as to the kind of country they think would work best for the population but the journey to that point can involve taking some highly unpopular decisions. Margaret Thatcher for example never baulked at unpopularity because she believed she was right. Blair was the same on Iraq - he believed the removal of Saddam Hussein to be necessary not just for Iraq and the region but for the security of the world and the people of the United Kingdom.
That's the difference between politics and government - the former means you can chase what's popular if that wins you votes but the latter means often having to take decisions unpopular with significant parts of the electorate or significant areas of the country in the wider interest.
It doesn't matter if you're a Town Councillor in Essex or an MP at Westminster - there are times when you or your area have to accept something unpopular for the greater good of the wider area. When you are sworn in, you become a member of a governing body as much as a representative for an area and that means having that greater responsibility and obligation.
It may mean you lose your seat but it also offers the opportunity to argue for something bigger than just your local interest.
At this stage we probably have more to worry about from the possibility of bird flu completing the jump across the species barrier than from a new variant of Covid-19.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
Interesting question. I suppose that the chances of mutations increase with a long-lasting host's cells doing the reproducing for the virus, producing substantial mutated replicants consistently. But that is not so because of large numbers of cases necessarily. IANAE
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
Hours-long queues have formed outside some testing centres as national daily infections have reached almost a new record. Some people who have Covid symptoms have reportedly been refused PCR tests
In Australia....
Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the country needs "a gear change" to manage the testing demand and redefine who counts as a close contact of a positive case.
As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.
No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.
The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
Just asking, young HY, because I do not know. You state with your usual confidence that there is not a single rural seat in the top 50 targets for Lib Dems. Are these just the seats where the Lib Dems came second in 2019? Or has Conservative HQ provided you with their forecast of what these seats are now?
These things do change very quickly. Once upon a time I lived in a Lib Dem target seat. But then it was de-targeted, because it was not making enough progress. So it may be that the Lib Dems are now going to target rural seats - which would make sense, bearing in mind how this Conservative government has utterly betrayed the farmers, and given the green light for developers and their cronies to tear up the rural countryside.
There are a handful Labour might get like Copeland. The top 50 LD targets are mainly in London or Home Counties Remain voting commuter belt or spa towns like Cheltenham
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
If you want to quantify these things honestly (and I don't think you do), the UK is about 1% of the world population. So, all things being equal, we'd expect that any development happening somewhere randomly to have about a 1% chance of happening here.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
But the point is that both time and population are relevant factors.
If a hypothetical new Delta+++ Variant is going to evolve then does it matter if it evolves in the UK or India or Portugal or Brazil, it will get here either way. But equally does it matter if it evolves today, next week Thursday, in February or in November next year? It will get here either way.
Quite frankly if its going to happen, its going to happen, and we'll have to cross that bridge if and when we get there. Domestic daily cases aren't really relevant.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Hours-long queues have formed outside some testing centres as national daily infections have reached almost a new record. Some people who have Covid symptoms have reportedly been refused PCR tests
In Australia....
Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the country needs "a gear change" to manage the testing demand and redefine who counts as a close contact of a positive case.
First France's case numbers and now Australia's testing queues. Is it better to ask which countries Boris doesn't run?
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
If you want to quantify these things honestly (and I don't think you do), the UK is about 1% of the world population. So, all things being equal, we'd expect that any development happening somewhere randomly to have about a 1% chance of happening here.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
Hmm. But the chances of mutation depend on the ability of the existing variants to spread freely. The more you restrict that spread through vaccines, the less the chance of mutation occurring in any particular population. So given the levels of vaccinated population now in the UK the chances of a mutation occurring here should be much less than the baseline 1%.
Surely a more accurate measure would be the % of unvaccinated in the UK compared to the total unvaccinated around the world.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
The "Progressive Alliance" is the dog that has no bark.
If the public wants rid of the Tories they'll vote accordingly as they did in 1997, "alliance" or no alliance. If they don't, they won't.
Instead of trying to find funny ways to try and win, Labour and the Lib Dems need to decide what they stand for and convince the public they're a better receptacle for their votes than the Tories are.
Currently it seems Starmer and Davey are hoping that if they say and do nothing then Boris and the Conservatives will piss off the public so much that the public will vote for the Opposition instead. That's definitely possible, but its a very risky strategy.
To be honest if Johnson is still in charge at the next election then I am hoping for a 1997 style result. I have no idea if it will happen but it is what he deserves.
You can then see Starmer lead the UK back into a customs union then while still keeping us out of the single market and no free movement to appease the redwall
The whole problem with sane Brexit approaches is that we can't have access to the EU's markets without Freedom of movement.
And no-one is willing to fix our benefits system and spend the time educating people as to what Freedom of Movement meant outside of the insanity we managed to create in Britain.
It was not the benefits system which was the problem. It was downward pressure on working class wages and pressure on public services free movement created. This was exacerbated by Blair's failure to impose transition controls in 2004
Says someone not old enough to have seen the reality...
If what you say is true, why locally are the Poles far more aware of what they can and can't claim compared to a lot of locals.
Did they not have to specifically legislate about kids needing to be enrolled in school at one point, as people were coming over for a few months over the summer, registering their families for benefits, then sending them back home?
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
If you want to quantify these things honestly (and I don't think you do), the UK is about 1% of the world population. So, all things being equal, we'd expect that any development happening somewhere randomly to have about a 1% chance of happening here.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
But the point is that both time and population are relevant factors.
If a hypothetical new Delta+++ Variant is going to evolve then does it matter if it evolves in the UK or India or Portugal or Brazil, it will get here either way. But equally does it matter if it evolves today, next week Thursday, in February or in November next year? It will get here either way.
Quite frankly if its going to happen, its going to happen, and we'll have to cross that bridge if and when we get there. Domestic daily cases aren't really relevant.
You could just say it's not endemic rather than trying to argue your way in circles
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
If you want to quantify these things honestly (and I don't think you do), the UK is about 1% of the world population. So, all things being equal, we'd expect that any development happening somewhere randomly to have about a 1% chance of happening here.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
But the point is that both time and population are relevant factors.
If a hypothetical new Delta+++ Variant is going to evolve then does it matter if it evolves in the UK or India or Portugal or Brazil, it will get here either way. But equally does it matter if it evolves today, next week Thursday, in February or in November next year? It will get here either way.
Quite frankly if its going to happen, its going to happen, and we'll have to cross that bridge if and when we get there. Domestic daily cases aren't really relevant.
No, where it happens is almost certainly irrelevant. Which makes your spin even stranger.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
If it happens, we adapt. We're humans, we're adaptable.
But unless it happens, why worry about it? There's going to be billions of cases in the coming years so if its going to happen, its going to happen. Deal with it when it does, if it does.
I'm neither religious nor an alcoholic, but the AA's "Serenity Prayer" seems relevant here: "God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference."
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
If you want to quantify these things honestly (and I don't think you do), the UK is about 1% of the world population. So, all things being equal, we'd expect that any development happening somewhere randomly to have about a 1% chance of happening here.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
Not necessarily, the evidence that significant variants develop where the host body is unable to clear the virus and generates multiple immune responses to a single infection, allowing the virus to evade each one in turn because it has time to do so. The UK has very high vax rates and a very small number of people in whom this mechanism is probable. We also have the new anti-virals for people in whom this may happen which will further reduce the chance of a serious set of mutations occuring.
Finally, and this is something that has been proven with Omicron, a variant that significantly evades existing immunity will also be less virulent because it will be a less good ACE-2 binding agent. Omicron has gone down this path, exactly as many virologists predicted at the beginning of the crisis. In order to evade ACE-2 based immunity it would have to dilute it's ability to bind to ACE-2 sites.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
I know this won't endear me to OGH, but the LDs are, and have been since Clegg, diabolical rubbish. You'd be an idiot to vote for them, but the fact that many still do so illustrates their opportunity. It must set a record for open goals.
I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.
I had another thought recently (they come occaisionally) Should Labour get very close to a majority, but need SNP support I'm pretty sure that the Tories would choose to bail them out rather than see the break-up of the Union.
As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.
No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.
The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
Hubris
Even in 1997 Blair won barely any rural seats and the LDs only won a handful mainly in the southwest
Midlothian, East Lothian, Dumfries, Inverness &c, Western Isles, lots of Ayrshire, etc. etc. were all Labour despite being partly or heavily rural. Andf the LDs won about 8 rural seats in Scotland alone.
I was talking England. In England rural seats tend to be Tory safe seats, in Scotland and Wales they are often marginals the Tories sometimes win
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
Is it? Because if it mutates into something like Delta our existing immunity suddenly tracks back to 95% against infection. Delta is a significantly better at ACE-2 binding which is what our vaccine and otherwise acquired immunity is based on, ACE-2 binding by the spike protein. Going back down that path is unlikely because people will be able to mount a very good defence against that variant and it won't be able to outcompete Omicron.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
It can only get so good, surely?
No but my point is that Omicron is from an older strain than Delta so it seems possible it could mutate once it has out-competed Delta, into something similar to Delta.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
It can only get so good, surely?
No but my point is that Omicron is from an older strain than Delta so it seems possible it could mutate once it has out-competed Delta, into something similar to Delta.
Which wouldn't be able to outcompete Omicron. I feel we are going around in circles on this one.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
It can only get so good, surely?
No but my point is that Omicron is from an older strain than Delta so it seems possible it could mutate once it has out-competed Delta, into something similar to Delta.
We can't live our lives like this.
It's genuinely harmful for you and other posters/lurkers here.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
Or it will need to further evade immunity which will come at a cost (for the virus, that is). Virologists predicted this at the start, it's a known outcome.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Smallpox?
Edit: no, I was thinking measles.
Measles? See Table 1 in this rather information-dense paper. Though I suppose it depends what route of transmission you mean. Also NB this presumably doesn't allow for omicron given the date.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
For a new mutation to spread successfully, it must meet one of these two conditions: 1. It transmits faster than existing variants 2. Immunity from existing variants does not convey.
Given that omicron appears to be an upper respiratory tract infections, that gives it a massive leg up vis-a-vis (1) in comparison to lower tract infections like alpha, beta, gamma and delta. IMO, it is highly unlikely that a lower respiratory tract infection could evolve to have a higher R0 than omicron.
So it boils down to can a delta-like variant arise that is immunologically different enough from both all the prior variants and omicron that it can survive and thrive despite immunity and vaccinations for those priors?
The evolutionary virologists I know think it highly unlikely.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
It can only get so good, surely?
No but my point is that Omicron is from an older strain than Delta so it seems possible it could mutate once it has out-competed Delta, into something similar to Delta.
By what mechanism would it outcompete Omicron? Specifically.
I'm not being a dick, I really want you to think about this beyond the simple scare stories.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
For a new mutation to spread successfully, it must meet one of these two conditions: 1. It transmits faster than existing variants 2. Immunity from existing variants does not convey.
Given that omicron appears to be an upper respiratory tract infections, that gives it a massive leg up vis-a-vis (1) in comparison to lower tract infections like alpha, beta, gamma and delta. IMO, it is highly unlikely that a lower respiratory tract infection could evolve to have a higher R0 than omicron.
So it boils down to can a delta-like variant arise that is immunologically different enough from both all the prior variants and omicron that it can survive and thrive despite immunity and vaccinations for those priors?
The evolutionary virologists I know think it highly unlikely.
As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.
No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.
The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
Hubris
Even in 1997 Blair won barely any rural seats and the LDs only won a handful mainly in the southwest
Midlothian, East Lothian, Dumfries, Inverness &c, Western Isles, lots of Ayrshire, etc. etc. were all Labour despite being partly or heavily rural. Andf the LDs won about 8 rural seats in Scotland alone.
I was talking England. In England rural seats tend to be Tory safe seats, in Scotland and Wales they are often marginals the Tories sometimes win
Currently English rural seats tend to be Tory safe seats.
Given the current state of farming I wouldn't want to bet on that being true going forward.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.
Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.
Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
He doesn't know anything - and this has become clear as more time has gone on.
I know this won't endear me to OGH, but the LDs are, and have been since Clegg, diabolical rubbish. You'd be an idiot to vote for them, but the fact that many still do so illustrates their opportunity. It must set a record for open goals.
I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.
I had another thought recently (they come occaisionally) Should Labour get very close to a majority, but need SNP support I'm pretty sure that the Tories would choose to bail them out rather than see the break-up of the Union.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
If it happens, we adapt. We're humans, we're adaptable.
But unless it happens, why worry about it? There's going to be billions of cases in the coming years so if its going to happen, its going to happen. Deal with it when it does, if it does.
I'm neither religious nor an alcoholic, but the AA's "Serenity Prayer" seems relevant here: "God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference."
Indeed. That is a good quote for life and living, whether one is religious or not.
As someone who suffered very badly, very badly indeed, with mental health problems brought on by lockdown, I have had to do a lot of learning to let go in order to get better.
I am a lot better now, but the constant fear cycle of the news (and social media) that seems to thrive on the questions of "what if it gets worse? what if this happens, or that? what if we are all dooooommmeed?" is not conducive to a life well lived.
I often wonder how the people in pre-modern times did it, when they had no real medicine, no antibiotics, where plague or cholera was rife and a scratch could be fatal sepsis before you knew it... or one bit of how's your father could become syphilitic madness by the end of the year.
And I conclude, they just learned to get on with it. To accept that life is about living in the moment and enjoying what you have now rather than worrying about all the million things that could go wrong. I think this is something that society has forgotten and we could all do well to re-learn.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.
Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
COVID would be closer to having a zero Flu strategy. It would be nice....
For some reason I was reminded of a scientist who said that when we have worked out how to cure AIDS, on the way we will have found out how to cure most cancers, and made the common cold extinct.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
For a new mutation to spread successfully, it must meet one of these two conditions: 1. It transmits faster than existing variants 2. Immunity from existing variants does not convey.
Given that omicron appears to be an upper respiratory tract infections, that gives it a massive leg up vis-a-vis (1) in comparison to lower tract infections like alpha, beta, gamma and delta. IMO, it is highly unlikely that a lower respiratory tract infection could evolve to have a higher R0 than omicron.
So it boils down to can a delta-like variant arise that is immunologically different enough from both all the prior variants and omicron that it can survive and thrive despite immunity and vaccinations for those priors?
The evolutionary virologists I know think it highly unlikely.
Yes, how can something that is unable to evade ACE-2 binding immunity outcompete something that does, especially since we now know Omicron confers immunity to Delta (and vice versa to the extent of severe symptoms).
It's as if people are just irrationally scared of the virus, Omicron's immunity evasion has come at a cost of virulence, that looks to be the evolutionary pathway given that underlying immunity to viral binding to ACE-2 sites is probably very, very high all across the world now due to vaccines and prior infection.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.
Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
COVID would be closer to having a zero Flu strategy. It would be nice....
For some reason I was reminded of a scientist who said that when we have worked out how to cure AIDS, on the way we will have found out how to cure most cancers, and made the common cold extinct.
Nanobots in the bloodstream would probably do that.
Finchley is the only seat I can think of where both Lab and LD might target the same constituency.
Wimbledon?
Yes, thanks for reminding me. There used to be a lot more 3-way marginals, like Calder Valley, Colne Valley, Falmouth and Camborne, Hastings and Rye, Oldham East. But now, in most of them one of Lab or LD has established itself as the main challenger. It makes election night less interesting because 3-way marginals are often very unpredictable.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
It can only get so good, surely?
No but my point is that Omicron is from an older strain than Delta so it seems possible it could mutate once it has out-competed Delta, into something similar to Delta.
The mutations are random, but their effect is not. You are imagining that the characteristics of the virus - transmissability, immune evasion, virulence - can vary randomly in an unbounded three-dimensional space, but it's a lot more complicated than that.
To take Omicron as an example, one reason that it is thought to be more transmissable is that the virus has changed to more effectively infect the upper respiratory tract, but this change simultaneously makes it less virulent, because it's no longer causing so much damage to the lower respiratory tract.
So the changes that a virus can make are more bounded, a bit like how a hill walker can only reach latitude, longitude and height points that are where the ground surface is. Which means that when you are at the top of a hill, if you want to get to the top of a different higher hill, over there, you have to first descend across the valley between the two hills. So it is possible for a virus to effectively get stuck on a hill, and not be able to make it to the more virulent, transmissable and immune-evading hill, because the mutations required to cross the valley in one go are too numerous.
Is it not possible, it mutates and evades the vaccines. It would then be able to spread quickly even without being anymore "dangerous".
Evading immunity will come at a cost of virulence, just as we've seen with Omicron. We're very quickly building up immunity to Omicron's specific mechanism, we've got pre-print data that shows it confers immunity to Delta (and more generally the mechanism Delta uses). The only evolutionary pathway is to be even less good at binding to ACE-2 sites which will bring virulence down even more than has already happened with Omicron.
Are you new here? This is what PB does - argue in circles, while waiting for more data to add to the circular arguments.
I don't argue in circles. I argue in closed polygons: sometimes triangles, often squares, sometimes non-convex pentagons. Occasionally decagons, and if I'm feeling particularly degenerate, apeirogons.
If I've had a drink or three, I can even go into 3-d and argue in rhombic triacontahedrons...
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
If it happens, we adapt. We're humans, we're adaptable.
But unless it happens, why worry about it? There's going to be billions of cases in the coming years so if its going to happen, its going to happen. Deal with it when it does, if it does.
I'm neither religious nor an alcoholic, but the AA's "Serenity Prayer" seems relevant here: "God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference."
Indeed. That is a good quote for life and living, whether one is religious or not.
As someone who suffered very badly, very badly indeed, with mental health problems brought on by lockdown, I have had to do a lot of learning to let go in order to get better.
I am a lot better now, but the constant fear cycle of the news (and social media) that seems to thrive on the questions of "what if it gets worse? what if this happens, or that? what if we are all dooooommmeed?" is not conducive to a life well lived.
I often wonder how the people in pre-modern times did it, when they had no real medicine, no antibiotics, where plague or cholera was rife and a scratch could be fatal sepsis before you knew it... or one bit of how's your father could become syphilitic madness by the end of the year.
And I conclude, they just learned to get on with it. To accept that life is about living in the moment and enjoying what you have now rather than worrying about all the million things that could go wrong. I think this is something that society has forgotten and we could all do well to re-learn.
I wouldn't want it to be taken as a moan that we are just too damn soft nowadays, that's not true or helpful, but it probably is a sign of just how good things actually are for the average person nowadays, even in most below average parts of the world (it's one reason it is good people push back against the well meaning doomsayers who act like the industrial revolution has only had negative effects for instance). Life is not as nasty, brutish or short, even if it remains arbitrary, and we don't need to build up the mental fortitude of dealing with disaster or personal tragedy to anywhere like the same degree. On average, there was just more opportunity or people to face it.
As people show in areas so beset though, be it through disease or war or something else, we are still capable of weathering such when needed however. As I am fond of quoting, Watership Down claims it is a key characteristic of being human (and one shared by rabbits, in the book anyway).
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
The virus is endemic.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
You do not know what endemic means. It is by definition not endemic while it is spreading exponentially.
Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
COVID would be closer to having a zero Flu strategy. It would be nice....
For some reason I was reminded of a scientist who said that when we have worked out how to cure AIDS, on the way we will have found out how to cure most cancers, and made the common cold extinct.
Nanobots in the bloodstream would probably do that.
Then a sudden urge to buy Microsoft products.
LOL
On a serious note, I think he was largely right. By the time we have the ability to cure AIDS, we will have acquired, on the way, a vast amount of *fine* control over the human immune system.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
It would have to be more transmissable than Omicron
And why can't that happen?
Its hard to imagine a more transmissable virus than Omicron
Well Delta was more transmissible than the original strain and more dangerous. So why not?
It can only get so good, surely?
No but my point is that Omicron is from an older strain than Delta so it seems possible it could mutate once it has out-competed Delta, into something similar to Delta.
The mutations are random, but their effect is not. You are imagining that the characteristics of the virus - transmissability, immune evasion, virulence - can vary randomly in an unbounded three-dimensional space, but it's a lot more complicated than that.
To take Omicron as an example, one reason that it is thought to be more transmissable is that the virus has changed to more effectively infect the upper respiratory tract, but this change simultaneously makes it less virulent, because it's no longer causing so much damage to the lower respiratory tract.
So the changes that a virus can make are more bounded, a bit like how a hill walker can only reach latitude, longitude and height points that are where the ground surface is. Which means that when you are at the top of a hill, if you want to get to the top of a different higher hill, over there, you have to first descend across the valley between the two hills. So it is possible for a virus to effectively get stuck on a hill, and not be able to make it to the more virulent, transmissable and immune-evading hill, because the mutations required to cross the valley in one go are too numerous.
TBH based on the 2019 result, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green (or successor seats) are the only seats where the opposition is likely to be split. Most seats the Lib Dems have to win particularly in the South East already have a Labour vote of below 10% and they have to win over a crucial slither of soft Tory voters.
I think it's a mistake for Labour to rule out a pact completely or at least have discussions with LDs/Greens etc at a local level in places like Barnet though there are understandably issues with local party democracy.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
I refer you to the reply I gave at the back end of the previous thread, and I'd like to emphasise the last sentence again. It is useless to worry over that which we have no control over.
This is globally the case though, and far more likely to occur in a country that isn't boosted and whose original vaccines provide little to no protection. The fact is that Omicron is so contagious it is likely to sweep most of the world in short order, and even lockdowns are unlikely to prevent its spread - short of full, weld people into their apartment style lockdowns that will obliterate the global economy. Which is more of a concern to me than a possible mutation.
I think it is a case of alea iacta est now, we only have to hope we roll a double six rather than snake eyes. But for the most part I have tried to stop worrying about things which I have no control over.
Aren't things you can't control the only things to rationally worry about?
Are you new here? This is what PB does - argue in circles, while waiting for more data to add to the circular arguments.
I don't argue in circles. I argue in closed polygons: sometimes triangles, often squares, sometimes non-convex pentagons. Occasionally decagons, and if I'm feeling particularly degenerate, apeirogons.
If I've had a drink or three, I can even go into 3-d and argue in rhombic triacontahedrons...
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
No, they are limited by biology.
Not what random means. I mean, do you think fair tosses of a fair coin are non-random because the outcomes are limited to 2?
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
I refer you to the reply I gave at the back end of the previous thread, and I'd like to emphasise the last sentence again. It is useless to worry over that which we have no control over.
This is globally the case though, and far more likely to occur in a country that isn't boosted and whose original vaccines provide little to no protection. The fact is that Omicron is so contagious it is likely to sweep most of the world in short order, and even lockdowns are unlikely to prevent its spread - short of full, weld people into their apartment style lockdowns that will obliterate the global economy. Which is more of a concern to me than a possible mutation.
I think it is a case of alea iacta est now, we only have to hope we roll a double six rather than snake eyes. But for the most part I have tried to stop worrying about things which I have no control over.
Aren't things you can't control the only things to rationally worry about?
Pleased to see we haven't seen a wave of hospitalisations over Christmas - frankly if nothing spectacular happens in the next week all restrictions need to go.
I suspect in Wales there will be serious heel dragging from the government who will regard any possible increase in demand on the health service as a reason to maintain covid measures.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
No, they are limited by biology.
Not what random means. I mean, do you think fair tosses of a fair coin are non-random because the outcomes are limited to 2?
Random was used in the context of the effects of the mutation, not what each gene is doing.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
Unless the new variant has a sufficiently different immunological profile, you are simply wrong.
If two variants co-exist with the same or very similar immunological profiles, the out-compete point is key. Why do you think we've had successive waves of variants, rather than all of them co-existing? When there have been multiple variants co-existing in large numbers (alpha, gamma, beta), it was because they were geographically separate. Each region had its own dominant variant.
I've mentioned this before, but the changes in Conservative vote share across '79-'92 were pretty small, as were those across '15-'19.
The big changes in Conservative seats across each government were driven by how (spontaneously) organised the opposition vote was. A strong GTTO mood ('92 or '15) can drive the Conservative majority well down; if the opposition are fighting each other ('83 or '19), Conservatives waltz to a landslide.
That doesn't need a pact (though a mod and a wink in a backstreet Westminster bar can't do any harm). And the evidence of 2021's by-elections looks like that's the mood among the 55% again; though I'd like to see a Conservative held/Labour challenger marginal to be sure.
That ought to worry the Blue Team, especially since there's not a lot they can do about it.
Exactly. This is what I mean. The less control you have the more it makes sense to worry.
I'm not sure this out-compete terminology is accurate, viruses co-exist all the time.
I understood mutations to be totally random
The mutations to the genetic code are random, yes, but we're only interested in the small number of mutations that survive, because they confer a survival advantage onto the virus. The selection of these mutations is not random.
Pleased to see we haven't seen a wave of hospitalisations over Christmas - frankly if nothing spectacular happens in the next week all restrictions need to go.
I suspect in Wales there will be serious heel dragging from the government who will regard any possible increase in demand on the health service as a reason to maintain covid measures.
That is a load of straw man arguments lumped together.
Vaccination hesitancy stems from the government.
Why would we need restrictions if vaccines are so effective? Why do people need to be careful?
If someone was selling you a car, and they said at the same time you needed insurance against it breaking down after a year, wouldn't you think twice about buying the thing in the first place?
I know this won't endear me to OGH, but the LDs are, and have been since Clegg, diabolical rubbish. You'd be an idiot to vote for them, but the fact that many still do so illustrates their opportunity. It must set a record for open goals.
I'm not sure any party gets into government by being 'not another'.
I had another thought recently (they come occaisionally) Should Labour get very close to a majority, but need SNP support I'm pretty sure that the Tories would choose to bail them out rather than see the break-up of the Union.
Now that does sound like a coalition of chaos. Starmer driving with Johnson navigating.
France expecting to report 200,000+ cases today. The first European country to break that barrier
The UK might be saying hold my pint (of Champagne).....we can beat the French....
Dunno. Possible. But our death rate is now way lower than theirs, suggesting that they do have more of a problem - Delta PLUS Omicron, for a start
Also they have a higher vax rate and a much more stringent vaxport regime (we don't really have one), yet still their numbers soar over ours
I hope Boris shows some vertebrae and continues with the relaxed British - or English - approach. We just have to weather the storm and less omicron become endemic. Though we should be making the unvaxxed suffer, financially
I think we will see a big uptick in the numbers, especially 2/3rd of Jan, because of all the mixing over Christmas and New Year, but also because people will go nuts on testing themselves.
I am not going to be surprised if the official case number for a single day hits 200k.
Yes, highly possible. First two weeks of January should be the peak
If the incubation period for omicron is just 3 days, I think we'll see the peak of new cases very shortly. Or two peaks - the Christmas peak right now, and the back to work peak first week of January.
Do you mean the “Don’t want to go back to work” peak?
That is a load of straw man arguments lumped together.
Vaccination hesitancy stems from the government.
Why would we need restrictions if vaccines are so effective? Why do people need to be careful?
If someone was selling you a car, and they said at the same time you needed insurance against it breaking down after a year, wouldn't you think twice about buying the thing in the first place?
I assume your car's engine is randomly mutating leading to significant variations in its reliability?
I'm not sure this out-compete terminology is accurate, viruses co-exist all the time.
I understood mutations to be totally random
Outcompete is absolutely correct, Omicron has outcompeted Delta the same as Delta did for Alpha and Beta.
Mutations are random, but those which are successful will follow an evolutionary pathway because of pre-existing immunity forcing them down a certain route. A mutation to Omicron that pushes back to look exactly like Delta will be unable to infect anyone because we've all got very good immunity to Delta, for example.
So the evolutionary pressure is to evade immunity, but to do that it will come at a cost of virulence, Omicron is a big step towards that already.
Evolution is a mechanism of survival of the fittest, it's true for animals, bacteria, viruses and other living or near living organisms (viruses aren't "alive" in the same way bacteria are). That creates a pathway based on what the best growth conditions are, for COVID the best growth conditions are to evade immunity and to do that it needs to lose ACE-2 binding efficiency, that loss will make it less virulent.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
Unless the new variant has a sufficiently different immunological profile, you are simply wrong.
If two variants co-exist with the same or very similar immunological profiles, the out-compete point is key. Why do you think we've had successive waves of variants, rather than all of them co-existing? When there have been multiple variants co-existing in large numbers (alpha, gamma, beta), it was because they were geographically separate. Each region had its own dominant variant.
But that is my point. We have had a delta wave followed by an omicron wave. Omicron has not outcompeted delta in any sense that I can see.
As someone pointed out the other day there are many more people who think they are part of the farming community, than there are farmers, and many more in the hunting community than there are who ever went hunting. Some are going to sit on their hands next GE, some will vote LD, none Labour. Bloodbath for the tories.
No they aren't, there is not a single rural seat in the top 100 Labour target sears or the top 50 LD target seats. Shropshire North was just a by election protest vote which even on current polls would return to the Tories.
The suburbs and commuter belt and ex industrial redwall is the battleground
Hubris
Even in 1997 Blair won barely any rural seats and the LDs only won a handful mainly in the southwest
Midlothian, East Lothian, Dumfries, Inverness &c, Western Isles, lots of Ayrshire, etc. etc. were all Labour despite being partly or heavily rural. Andf the LDs won about 8 rural seats in Scotland alone.
I was talking England. In England rural seats tend to be Tory safe seats, in Scotland and Wales they are often marginals the Tories sometimes win
Currently English rural seats tend to be Tory safe seats.
Given the current state of farming I wouldn't want to bet on that being true going forward.
Listen to the Cumbrian shepherd who writes books chap on R4 Today yesterday, who spoke for all other farmers. They haven't a good word to say about government post Brexit, pre Brexit, in CAP times, post CAP times or any other times. And then go to the auction and look at the vehicles parked in the car park. It's all rubbish.
And then look at the map England and its Tory seats.
And I am strongly pro farmer. The anti farming lobby's views are not really printable.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
Not at all, no.
The virus is endemic globally now. There's probably going to be billions of cases globally in years to come and a variant can spread around the globe.
So in the context of billions of cases globally, what does a few tens or hundreds of thousands of cases daily matter domestically? Its like pissing into the ocean and thinking that will affect the sea level.
The virus is not endemic. Please stop posting this rubbish.
The more you post, the more it shows that you know little.
That is a load of straw man arguments lumped together.
Vaccination hesitancy stems from the government.
Why would we need restrictions if vaccines are so effective? Why do people need to be careful?
If someone was selling you a car, and they said at the same time you needed insurance against it breaking down after a year, wouldn't you think twice about buying the thing in the first place?
Vaccines are very effective, but not 100% effective. Don't get caught in a false dichotomy.
Nobody at all concerned high cases leads to a mutation that is as bad as Delta? Remember that this strain has mutated from an older strain than Delta did
By what mechanism with the mutations occur?
What are your qualifications Max?
A Chemistry degree, who'd have thought it would be useful all these years later.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
I assumed as much, I just wanted to be sure.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
If it mutates into a variant similar to Delta there's no issue because the Omicron variant will still massively outcompete it.
It's entirely possible it mutates into a variant that out-competes Omicron and is more like Delta in terms of danger? Mutations are random
Are they? I don't know. But it does have to be more infectious than Omicron in order for it to be of that much concern.
You don't know whether mutations are random or not? They are. Trust me on this.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
No, they are limited by biology.
Not what random means. I mean, do you think fair tosses of a fair coin are non-random because the outcomes are limited to 2?
Random was used in the context of the effects of the mutation, not what each gene is doing.
OK, not what mutation means, then. You mean *selected* mutation.
Comments
If what you say is true, why locally are the Poles far more aware of what they can and can't claim compared to a lot of locals.
(Hmm. OK - I see it is one of those added-together days when everyone has been at home, like some of the EU country stats after a weekend)
Being in a position to tickle Keating with 250k in a day would be fun, mind. Today he's been rebuking other people for 'misleading charts', of exactly the sort he's been circulating all year.
If you still think we can eradicate this virus globally with a zero Covid strategy, then you're utterly delusional.
These things do change very quickly. Once upon a time I lived in a Lib Dem target seat. But then it was de-targeted, because it was not making enough progress. So it may be that the Lib Dems are now going to target rural seats - which would make sense, bearing in mind how this Conservative government has utterly betrayed the farmers, and given the green light for developers and their cronies to tear up the rural countryside.
Don't compare global years with UK daily and pretend that the figures are smaller than they are. 1% of the worlds population, start there. It's small enough already without you have to spin it smaller than it really is.
Anyway, you've answered my question with a question. By what mechanism do you think the virus will mutate significantly, and I'll add another one, what kind of mutations do you think will occur that will enable this new theoretical variant to outcompete Omicron as well as evade t-cell immunity?
The Welsh have managed to cock that up too somehow, according to the dashboard. Reported zero cases on Xmas day.
Edit: Apols to Welsh statos, has been updated.
It's perfectly possible Omicron mutates into a variant similar to Delta. It can mutate at any time surely.
The big changes in Conservative seats across each government were driven by how (spontaneously) organised the opposition vote was. A strong GTTO mood ('92 or '15) can drive the Conservative majority well down; if the opposition are fighting each other ('83 or '19), Conservatives waltz to a landslide.
That doesn't need a pact (though a mod and a wink in a backstreet Westminster bar can't do any harm). And the evidence of 2021's by-elections looks like that's the mood among the 55% again; though I'd like to see a Conservative held/Labour challenger marginal to be sure.
That ought to worry the Blue Team, especially since there's not a lot they can do about it.
More than 90% of all community Covid cases in England are the Omicron variant, according to the UK Health Security Agency.
It may well do but you can't govern a country based simply on what the largest minority wants at any given point.
Some politicians have a clear view as to the kind of country they think would work best for the population but the journey to that point can involve taking some highly unpopular decisions. Margaret Thatcher for example never baulked at unpopularity because she believed she was right. Blair was the same on Iraq - he believed the removal of Saddam Hussein to be necessary not just for Iraq and the region but for the security of the world and the people of the United Kingdom.
That's the difference between politics and government - the former means you can chase what's popular if that wins you votes but the latter means often having to take decisions unpopular with significant parts of the electorate or significant areas of the country in the wider interest.
It doesn't matter if you're a Town Councillor in Essex or an MP at Westminster - there are times when you or your area have to accept something unpopular for the greater good of the wider area. When you are sworn in, you become a member of a governing body as much as a representative for an area and that means having that greater responsibility and obligation.
It may mean you lose your seat but it also offers the opportunity to argue for something bigger than just your local interest.
In Australia....
Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the country needs "a gear change" to manage the testing demand and redefine who counts as a close contact of a positive case.
If a hypothetical new Delta+++ Variant is going to evolve then does it matter if it evolves in the UK or India or Portugal or Brazil, it will get here either way. But equally does it matter if it evolves today, next week Thursday, in February or in November next year? It will get here either way.
Quite frankly if its going to happen, its going to happen, and we'll have to cross that bridge if and when we get there. Domestic daily cases aren't really relevant.
Surely a more accurate measure would be the % of unvaccinated in the UK compared to the total unvaccinated around the world.
Which makes your spin even stranger.
But unless it happens, why worry about it? There's going to be billions of cases in the coming years so if its going to happen, its going to happen. Deal with it when it does, if it does.
I'm neither religious nor an alcoholic, but the AA's "Serenity Prayer" seems relevant here: "God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference."
Finally, and this is something that has been proven with Omicron, a variant that significantly evades existing immunity will also be less virulent because it will be a less good ACE-2 binding agent. Omicron has gone down this path, exactly as many virologists predicted at the beginning of the crisis. In order to evade ACE-2 based immunity it would have to dilute it's ability to bind to ACE-2 sites.
Edit: no, I was thinking measles.
It's genuinely harmful for you and other posters/lurkers here.
Take life as it comes.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-021-00535-6
Ah, missed your edit ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0ZY3VWYKzQ
1. It transmits faster than existing variants
2. Immunity from existing variants does not convey.
Given that omicron appears to be an upper respiratory tract infections, that gives it a massive leg up vis-a-vis (1) in comparison to lower tract infections like alpha, beta, gamma and delta. IMO, it is highly unlikely that a lower respiratory tract infection could evolve to have a higher R0 than omicron.
So it boils down to can a delta-like variant arise that is immunologically different enough from both all the prior variants and omicron that it can survive and thrive despite immunity and vaccinations for those priors?
The evolutionary virologists I know think it highly unlikely.
I'm not being a dick, I really want you to think about this beyond the simple scare stories.
Given the current state of farming I wouldn't want to bet on that being true going forward.
Terminology aside, your point is gibberish. We have had rather successful zero smallpox and zero polio strategies. And in any case, never mind eradication, what do you propose we do if we get a markedly more lethal variant than we have seen so far? Piles of bodies in the street, or lockdown while the wave passes over us? That question is entirely independent of whether it is endemic, and of whether we could/should pursue a zero covid strategy.
My opinion on the government is therefore cast iron.
As someone who suffered very badly, very badly indeed, with mental health problems brought on by lockdown, I have had to do a lot of learning to let go in order to get better.
I am a lot better now, but the constant fear cycle of the news (and social media) that seems to thrive on the questions of "what if it gets worse? what if this happens, or that? what if we are all dooooommmeed?" is not conducive to a life well lived.
I often wonder how the people in pre-modern times did it, when they had no real medicine, no antibiotics, where plague or cholera was rife and a scratch could be fatal sepsis before you knew it... or one bit of how's your father could become syphilitic madness by the end of the year.
And I conclude, they just learned to get on with it. To accept that life is about living in the moment and enjoying what you have now rather than worrying about all the million things that could go wrong. I think this is something that society has forgotten and we could all do well to re-learn.
For some reason I was reminded of a scientist who said that when we have worked out how to cure AIDS, on the way we will have found out how to cure most cancers, and made the common cold extinct.
It's as if people are just irrationally scared of the virus, Omicron's immunity evasion has come at a cost of virulence, that looks to be the evolutionary pathway given that underlying immunity to viral binding to ACE-2 sites is probably very, very high all across the world now due to vaccines and prior infection.
Then a sudden urge to buy Microsoft products.
This out-competition point is simply wrong. A new variant doesn't have to outcompete, or be more infectious than, omicron, it can just come along afterwards.
To take Omicron as an example, one reason that it is thought to be more transmissable is that the virus has changed to more effectively infect the upper respiratory tract, but this change simultaneously makes it less virulent, because it's no longer causing so much damage to the lower respiratory tract.
So the changes that a virus can make are more bounded, a bit like how a hill walker can only reach latitude, longitude and height points that are where the ground surface is. Which means that when you are at the top of a hill, if you want to get to the top of a different higher hill, over there, you have to first descend across the valley between the two hills. So it is possible for a virus to effectively get stuck on a hill, and not be able to make it to the more virulent, transmissable and immune-evading hill, because the mutations required to cross the valley in one go are too numerous.
If I've had a drink or three, I can even go into 3-d and argue in rhombic triacontahedrons...
As people show in areas so beset though, be it through disease or war or something else, we are still capable of weathering such when needed however. As I am fond of quoting, Watership Down claims it is a key characteristic of being human (and one shared by rabbits, in the book anyway).
On a serious note, I think he was largely right. By the time we have the ability to cure AIDS, we will have acquired, on the way, a vast amount of *fine* control over the human immune system.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-josep-borrell-us-russia-talks-ukraine-nato/
I think it's a mistake for Labour to rule out a pact completely or at least have discussions with LDs/Greens etc at a local level in places like Barnet though there are understandably issues with local party democracy.
I understood mutations to be totally random
Real Men (TM) argue in 10 dimensions.
I suspect in Wales there will be serious heel dragging from the government who will regard any possible increase in demand on the health service as a reason to maintain covid measures.
If two variants co-exist with the same or very similar immunological profiles, the out-compete point is key. Why do you think we've had successive waves of variants, rather than all of them co-existing? When there have been multiple variants co-existing in large numbers (alpha, gamma, beta), it was because they were geographically separate. Each region had its own dominant variant.
Gas futures continue on a downward trajectory. Now ~£2.30/therm.
Halved from the peak.
Why would we need restrictions if vaccines are so effective? Why do people need to be careful?
If someone was selling you a car, and they said at the same time you needed insurance against it breaking down after a year, wouldn't you think twice about buying the thing in the first place?
Edit: removing my Brexiteer's apostrophe.
Mutations are random, but those which are successful will follow an evolutionary pathway because of pre-existing immunity forcing them down a certain route. A mutation to Omicron that pushes back to look exactly like Delta will be unable to infect anyone because we've all got very good immunity to Delta, for example.
So the evolutionary pressure is to evade immunity, but to do that it will come at a cost of virulence, Omicron is a big step towards that already.
Evolution is a mechanism of survival of the fittest, it's true for animals, bacteria, viruses and other living or near living organisms (viruses aren't "alive" in the same way bacteria are). That creates a pathway based on what the best growth conditions are, for COVID the best growth conditions are to evade immunity and to do that it needs to lose ACE-2 binding efficiency, that loss will make it less virulent.
And then look at the map England and its Tory seats.
And I am strongly pro farmer. The anti farming lobby's views are not really printable.
Don't get caught in a false dichotomy.