Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

There’s no need for a LAB-LD pact or progressive alliance – politicalbetting.com

14567810»

Comments

  • This thread has shown that average cases have halved and so have been shut down....
  • IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The same people that said Delta was nothing to worry about, are those that are saying Omicron is nothing to worry about.

    So is anyone who said Delta was nothing to worry about, going to stick their head up and say this is different

    Who said Delta is nothing to worry about?
    I don't recall you calling for a lockdown when Delta was around, we didn't need one was what you and several others said. I remember arguing with you about it
    That's not the same thing, is it?
    My point is you were wrong then and so I am interested in people that did call for a lockdown then who don't think there is anything to worry about now.

    What I am hearing now is the same people that initially said "nothing to worry about" then said "lockdown isn't needed" then said "lockdown 2.0 isn't needed". It's the same people
    You keep making these massive sweeping generalisations.
    I have generally preferred not to make generalisations.

    And with that, good night.
    But the French elite are so paranoid about Brexit, so allergic to it and fearful of it, they set a low bar for its success. Britain surviving intact and not starving to death will probably seem quite successful to them. given their direful predictions of total British implosion.

    Then the next time the EU does something widely unpopular, eurosceptics across the continent will start to look longingly at independent London.

    This is the great French fear. By this guy's account it does stalk their nightmares.
    The French are trying to restrict travel to essential only.
    By blocking British residents of Belgium or the Netherlands who want to use EuroTunnel and transit France?
    Are the blocking British? Or just anyone who isn't EU/Schengen?
    Travel from the UK to France

    URGENT UPDATE FOR BRITISH RESIDENTS IN EU

    Following a French Government decision, on 28/12/2021, unless they hold French residency, British citizens are now considered 3rd country citizens and can no longer transit France by road to reach their country of residence in the EU.


    https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/#foca
    Exactly. They aren't treating us differently. They're applying the 3rd country rules which our government demanded be imposed upon us.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Evidence, as if it were needed, that the “common sense of the British people” is not an evenly distributed commodity. https://twitter.com/AlPinkerton/status/1476234206531436554/photo/1


    Isn't that dip just because Scotland, Wales, and NI didn't issue reports for 4 days, while England did?
    By Jove I think you are onto something.
    I don't even understand the scale that the FT have used for that graph. Case rates are almost an order of magnitude higher than those indicated - the most recently reported English seven day rolling average is 1258.1 per 100,000 population, for example - and it can't be a mislabelled chart of total cases either because the values are obviously all wrong.

    Case rate data by specimen date for the four home nations are currently complete only up until the 24th, as follows:

    Seven day case rates by specimen date (correct as of Christmas Eve):

    Northern Ireland: 1,273 per 100,000 population (change in case rate: +82%)
    England: 1,258 (+45%)
    Wales: 1,149 (+78%)
    Scotland: 1,077 (+59%)

    No massive difference in performance evident there.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Taking back control never felt so good but this is casus belli isn't it?

    URGENT UPDATE FOR BRITISH RESIDENTS IN EU: Following a French Government decision, on 28/12/2021, unless they hold French residency, British citizens are now considered 3rd country citizens and can no longer transit France by road to reach their country of residence in the EU.

    https://twitter.com/LeShuttle/status/1476245791027179524

    I have a sense Macron would still be doing this kind of nonsense even if we were still in the EU.....blaming the roast beef is Macron go to criticism.
    There's a remarkable interview on Twitter (I might try and locate it when I'm not knackered from tax returning) where a French eurosceptic is interviewed by a French journalist about Franco-British relations. It's a serious interview, the pundit is not a lunatic


    Basically, we are doomed to a Cold War with France for years if not decades. Why? Because the super-europhile French view Brexit as an Exocet aimed directly at the greatest project of post-war France - European Unification (under French leadership, begrudgingly shared with Berlin). The EU is all that France really cares about, foreign-policy-wise, as they see it as the only way to assert French power globally, now France is relatively so small, compared to the USA, China, and other rising powers like India

    A "successful" Brexit is a mortal and perpetual peril to this ambition. If it is ever seen to happen it will encourage other more reluctant members of the EU tribe (Poland, Hungary, maybe Sweden and Denmark, even Greece and Italy) to copy the UK, thus members will topple away like dominoes and the EU will crumble.

    Therefore Brexit cannot succeed, not only that it must be punished continuously, and Britain must be singled out for worse treatment than any other 3rd country, in perpetuity (because the French have no other idea how to handle Brexit, such it their hatred and fear of it)

    Hence shit like this. Britain is deliberately being targetted by the Frogs, and this is going to go on for a long, long time, and we can expect no better from any other president - Macron is just more honest in his petulant anger than some

    The UK needs to adjust to France as an overtly hostile power, for the long term. Once we accept this we can of course react, accordingly





    Good job there's no sign of a successful Brexit then. Phew! Stand down.
    There is no prospect of a successful Brexit. There is also no prospect of Brexit going away. At some point those two outcomes will need to be resolved.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Evidence, as if it were needed, that the “common sense of the British people” is not an evenly distributed commodity. https://twitter.com/AlPinkerton/status/1476234206531436554/photo/1


    Isn't that dip just because Scotland, Wales, and NI didn't issue reports for 4 days, while England did?
    On the ft.com/covid19 web page referenced in that image.

    December 29 2021: Data for UK nations is not being displayed after December 24 due to incomplete data availability during the holiday period.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    RobD said:

    Meanwhile the next government scandal emerges...

    "The Cabinet might not agree on what levelling up is but filling in potholes for a Conservative Peer is definitely not it. How many streets in Britain have had 330k to repair their roads? Ministers must come clean on how these shocking decisions are made."

    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1476175878170320901?s=20

    All parts of the country need to be levelled up, including the long driveways of the various Viscounts of the realm.
    And where better to start than with a Tory peer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Meanwhile the next government scandal emerges...

    "The Cabinet might not agree on what levelling up is but filling in potholes for a Conservative Peer is definitely not it. How many streets in Britain have had 330k to repair their roads? Ministers must come clean on how these shocking decisions are made."

    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1476175878170320901?s=20

    All parts of the country need to be levelled up, including the long driveways of the various Viscounts of the realm.
    And where better to start than with a Tory peer.
    Being serious for a moment. I doubt he's done anything wrong, it's just the eligibility criteria for the grants weren't thought through enough.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Scott_xP said:

    Evidence, as if it were needed, that the “common sense of the British people” is not an evenly distributed commodity. https://twitter.com/AlPinkerton/status/1476234206531436554/photo/1


    I read this book as a kid:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Well a couple of days ago they were saying that there were no plans to cancel routine surgery in London. I'm struggling to understand how things can be so different in Leicester. I have seen figures that suggest only 71% of people over 12 vaccinated in Leicester. Maybe it will be one of the hardest hit areas.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    pigeon said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Evidence, as if it were needed, that the “common sense of the British people” is not an evenly distributed commodity. https://twitter.com/AlPinkerton/status/1476234206531436554/photo/1


    Isn't that dip just because Scotland, Wales, and NI didn't issue reports for 4 days, while England did?
    By Jove I think you are onto something.
    I don't even understand the scale that the FT have used for that graph. Case rates are almost an order of magnitude higher than those indicated - the most recently reported English seven day rolling average is 1258.1 per 100,000 population, for example - and it can't be a mislabelled chart of total cases either because the values are obviously all wrong.

    Case rate data by specimen date for the four home nations are currently complete only up until the 24th, as follows:

    Seven day case rates by specimen date (correct as of Christmas Eve):

    Northern Ireland: 1,273 per 100,000 population (change in case rate: +82%)
    England: 1,258 (+45%)
    Wales: 1,149 (+78%)
    Scotland: 1,077 (+59%)

    No massive difference in performance evident there.
    It's an interactive app on the FT website I think, being abused by a Lib Dem called Alisdair Pinkerton, who is perhaps feeding the FBPE thicko-trolls, such as Emma Kennedy, if we give him the credit of understanding what he's doing.
    https://twitter.com/EmmaKennedy/status/1476270114425249793
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    I love the way my use of 'version' rather than 'translation' about the bible has led to a heated discussion.

    After which I am none the wiser! Even if I used the wrong word, I think everyone knew what I meant .. :)

    I would say you used the right word, actually. The different translations of the Bible are called 'versions.' It's just that they differ in more than the words used, because of the different materials they use for that translation. Which is not as widely appreciated as perhaps it should be.

    There is a reason why traditionally clergy were supposed to know Greek and Hebrew - so that issue wouldn't affect them.
    Also differ in the audiences.

    Crudely, say the difference between a children's bible, one designed for elementary speakers of English, and one aimed at being a literal translation not a paraphrase.
    I'm always wary of those books that claim to be 'literal translations.' For example, I believe you can literally translate German, as it is a very literal language, but nobody who is not actually unhinged would try to 'literally' translate Welsh into English as it is so idiomatic it would come out as meaningless drivel.

    To the credit of the NIV, they make it clear from the start that they didn't try a 'literal' translation: rather, they went to enormous efforts to ensure what they had written as far as possible accurately reflected the meaning of the original.
    Da liegt der Hund begraben.
    Are you suggesting that remark is going to dog me?

    'Leaves blowing in the wind' is another one I remember.

    But I was talking about peculiar sentence structures rather than metaphors. For example, in Welsh 'I have a car' would literally translate as 'Dw'i'n gael car.' But that is meaningless. The correct translation is 'mae car 'da fi,' which in English would literally translate to 'there is a car with me.' Which means something altogether different.

    Similarly 'sorry' is technically 'mae fflin galon 'da fi' or 'mae'n ddrwg calon da fi' which roughly translates to 'there is an unbearable pain with my heart.'* Now if you translated that into English, people might realise you were saying you felt sorry, or they might reach for a defibrillator and ring an ambulance.

    *I should point out because that is one hell of a mouthful, most Welsh people just say 'sori.'
    Could you translate it as "I'm heartbroken"?
    Je suis desolé

  • Mark Drakeford
    Forked dark ram
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited December 2021
    Recently Foxy had commented that hospital staff ought to be provided with pukka masks in view of their constant exposure to TBV (the bloody virus), but that this had been denied.

    This morning I saw a medic interviewed on my partner's TV saying very well the same thing, but, diplomatically, not mentioning any denial.

    Private Eye has recently published one of their "special reports" entitled PROFITS OF DOOM, describing profiteering over the virus.

    I feel angry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576

    We have new results on T cell responses to #Omicron, and its good news!
    Paper submitted for peer review & preprint:
    medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

    📢TL;DR: Most of your T cell responses from vaccination or previous infection still recognise Omicron.
    #Getvaccinated #GetthoseTcellsnow

    https://twitter.com/virusmonologues/status/1476221647417921536

    Odd that, pretty sure that’s what I kept saying a few nights ago. Nice to have it confirmed. You gonna calm down a bit now?
    I am still concerned about mutations and waning immunity but I agree this is a step in the right direction
    I posted a similar paper a couple of nights back.
    It showed that while Omicron evolved to evade a large number of neutralising antibodies, hardly any of the epitopes recognised by T-cells had mutated at all from the earlier variants.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It’s great to know England is safe in the collective hands of the 1922 Committee, 100 Tory backbenchers and the Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun (our de facto government)- and the advice of “doom-laden” public health experts ignored. What a strange democracy in which we live.
    https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1476273893577003016

    Advisors advising and ministers deciding with the input of elected MPs.

    What a strange democracy ...
    Whether one agrees with the recent decision or not, and notwithstanding the usual worry about influence of the press, that was a rather odd way of criticising it - that the PM feels he lacks legislative support for doing more may be many things, but undemocratic it isn't.
    But. Does he lack legislative support?
    Or does he lack Conservative legislative support?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,088

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The same people that said Delta was nothing to worry about, are those that are saying Omicron is nothing to worry about.

    So is anyone who said Delta was nothing to worry about, going to stick their head up and say this is different

    Who said Delta is nothing to worry about?
    I don't recall you calling for a lockdown when Delta was around, we didn't need one was what you and several others said. I remember arguing with you about it
    That's not the same thing, is it?
    My point is you were wrong then and so I am interested in people that did call for a lockdown then who don't think there is anything to worry about now.

    What I am hearing now is the same people that initially said "nothing to worry about" then said "lockdown isn't needed" then said "lockdown 2.0 isn't needed". It's the same people
    You keep making these massive sweeping generalisations.
    I have generally preferred not to make generalisations.

    And with that, good night.
    But the French elite are so paranoid about Brexit, so allergic to it and fearful of it, they set a low bar for its success. Britain surviving intact and not starving to death will probably seem quite successful to them. given their direful predictions of total British implosion.

    Then the next time the EU does something widely unpopular, eurosceptics across the continent will start to look longingly at independent London.

    This is the great French fear. By this guy's account it does stalk their nightmares.
    The French are trying to restrict travel to essential only.
    By blocking British residents of Belgium or the Netherlands who want to use EuroTunnel and transit France?
    By blocking French residents of France, too. Not to mention the Belgians etc.
    Got a link for that? It’s not what EuroTunnel are saying:

    https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/#foca
    The compelling reason lists to travel - in each direction - are here:

    https://mobile.interieur.gouv.fr/content/download/130185/1036624/file/1612-motifs-imperieux-uk.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3KVyMgGLHnw7zxyoxdNMbMxeHqp-tQJM6fRBI8C5K81bcdbOZctDumei4
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    DW - German case numbers are much higher than reported

    There is a known long term shortage of personnel running the system and this shows during holidays as not enough people to do the testing or process the results. Potential collapse of the testing infrastructure in the coming weeks if infections increase.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HU7VPAvN61Q

    But apparently the UK testing system is utter shit...

    You can only take an LFT at a chemist or GP.
    Then return for a PCR.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    We are in big trouble I am afraid.

    You keep saying this, is there any chance of you elaborating? What scenario do you envisage for the UK, Europe, the world?


    Genuine question. Just coming on here and saying "Oo-er" is not especially enlightening

    And yes I know I do it all the time but at least I endeavour to entertain, mostly
    I posted a lot earlier Leon.

    I think with the large number of cases, mutations are likely which could evade vaccines and/or be more dangerous as we saw with delta.

    The people in hospital is going one way: up.

    I think we're in trouble. I still hope I am wrong but I am no longer unworried as I was a few days ago.
    My hospital has installed a fixed multi-user holding ambulance to help unload. There were 25 ambulances on the forecourt tonight as I walked out. It looks pretty grim in terms of capacity.
    Some mistake surely. The PB virology experts assure me tis just a cold. So what you describe can't be real...
    Here it is:



    Though most of those stuck in the ambulances unable to offload are with other conditions.
    Thanks for the photo. Note to PB Virology experts - when you say "no threat to the NHS" and the NHS have the evidence of exactly what the threat is, ask yourselves who may be in the know...
    There is a plan for temporary "Nightingale" wards in the car park too. Plans to staff them are a bit sketchy, but from Social Care apparently.

    Good mitigations I think, but it is all getting a bit hairy.
    So.
    Who does the Social Care then?
    Or is that a daft question?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    It’s great to know England is safe in the collective hands of the 1922 Committee, 100 Tory backbenchers and the Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun (our de facto government)- and the advice of “doom-laden” public health experts ignored. What a strange democracy in which we live.
    https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1476273893577003016

    Funny that a majority of the elected representatives in the commons get to say what goes. And that a government that can’t control a majority falls
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    If we are recommending movies/TV I have two new favourites


    The first is "Dopesick" - an eight part Disney/Hulu miniseries about the rise of opioid abuse in the USA, punted by Big Pharma and the Sackler Family (who really are represented as comic book Jewish villains, almost to the point of anti-Semitism, and yet by all accounts the portrait is realistic). The narrative jumps around time wise, to an annoying extent, but the emotional power builds, as well. Compelling, and harrowing

    The other is "The Great". A riotous, ribald, often fictional romp through the rise and rise of Catherine the Great of Russia. Expect lots of swearing, nudity, eye-gouging, scatological humour, mummified queens and death. It is of course full of made-up stories and dialogue, and yet from my reading of Russian history, it is also quite a faithful depiction of the lurid insanity of the Russian upper classes and their orgiastic drinking/fighting during the time of Peter the Great and his daughter-in-law Catherine. Brilliant fun.

    I got Empire of Pain for Christmas, and am looking forward to reading it.
    It’s depressing. People steered clear of Purdue but I didn’t realise quite how bad it was
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    I love the way my use of 'version' rather than 'translation' about the bible has led to a heated discussion.

    After which I am none the wiser! Even if I used the wrong word, I think everyone knew what I meant .. :)

    I would say you used the right word, actually. The different translations of the Bible are called 'versions.' It's just that they differ in more than the words used, because of the different materials they use for that translation. Which is not as widely appreciated as perhaps it should be.

    There is a reason why traditionally clergy were supposed to know Greek and Hebrew - so that issue wouldn't affect them.
    Also differ in the audiences.

    Crudely, say the difference between a children's bible, one designed for elementary speakers of English, and one aimed at being a literal translation not a paraphrase.
    I'm always wary of those books that claim to be 'literal translations.' For example, I believe you can literally translate German, as it is a very literal language, but nobody who is not actually unhinged would try to 'literally' translate Welsh into English as it is so idiomatic it would come out as meaningless drivel.

    To the credit of the NIV, they make it clear from the start that they didn't try a 'literal' translation: rather, they went to enormous efforts to ensure what they had written as far as possible accurately reflected the meaning of the original.
    Absolutely. In the context of a Bible translation, it is likely to be an attempt to follow the correct corresponding words and structure of the original text - but understanding the process is v. important. May lead to eg a version stilted in English, but if being used for eg study in sermon prep. then the compromise would be worth it.

    Whilst a version designed more for public reading is likely to give more emphasis to fluency in the English expression.

    I had a friend who went to do Bible Translation in Ougadougou. Interesting conversations.

    On NIV - yes a very good translation but that had a bit of a habit of following evangelical ideas, by comparison with say the Jerusalem Bible, which had a bit of an RC fingerprint.
    I grew up on the Good News Bible, although NIV is my go to today. That said the majesty of the KJV for high ceremony is unrivalled
    I prefer the Beano. The stories are more realistic, and who wouldn't want to follow the religion of Dennis?
    It’s too self-centred and materialistic to appeal to me personally, but each to their own. Shalom.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    British citizens settled in the EU with legal status guaranteed under withdrawal agreement cannot return home if they are transiting through France. This is what Brexit 31st December means.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1476298001614348293
    https://twitter.com/dudsinbxls/status/1476115805976899584

    I’m sure a clever lawyer can make a case that this is a frustrating action that is tantamount to a treaty breach
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    If we are recommending movies/TV I have two new favourites


    The first is "Dopesick" - an eight part Disney/Hulu miniseries about the rise of opioid abuse in the USA, punted by Big Pharma and the Sackler Family (who really are represented as comic book Jewish villains, almost to the point of anti-Semitism, and yet by all accounts the portrait is realistic). The narrative jumps around time wise, to an annoying extent, but the emotional power builds, as well. Compelling, and harrowing

    The other is "The Great". A riotous, ribald, often fictional romp through the rise and rise of Catherine the Great of Russia. Expect lots of swearing, nudity, eye-gouging, scatological humour, mummified queens and death. It is of course full of made-up stories and dialogue, and yet from my reading of Russian history, it is also quite a faithful depiction of the lurid insanity of the Russian upper classes and their orgiastic drinking/fighting during the time of Peter the Great and his daughter-in-law Catherine. Brilliant fun.

    I got Empire of Pain for Christmas, and am looking forward to reading it.
    The American pharmaceutical industry is a strange strange thing. Capable of incredible breakthroughs and great scientific achievements, but Jesus there is a darkside. A streak of outright evil. Dopesick explains it deftly and movingly
    The Sacklers are representative of no one but themselves
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The same people that said Delta was nothing to worry about, are those that are saying Omicron is nothing to worry about.

    So is anyone who said Delta was nothing to worry about, going to stick their head up and say this is different

    Who said Delta is nothing to worry about?
    I don't recall you calling for a lockdown when Delta was around, we didn't need one was what you and several others said. I remember arguing with you about it
    That's not the same thing, is it?
    My point is you were wrong then and so I am interested in people that did call for a lockdown then who don't think there is anything to worry about now.

    What I am hearing now is the same people that initially said "nothing to worry about" then said "lockdown isn't needed" then said "lockdown 2.0 isn't needed". It's the same people
    You keep making these massive sweeping generalisations.
    I have generally preferred not to make generalisations.

    And with that, good night.
    But the French elite are so paranoid about Brexit, so allergic to it and fearful of it, they set a low bar for its success. Britain surviving intact and not starving to death will probably seem quite successful to them. given their direful predictions of total British implosion.

    Then the next time the EU does something widely unpopular, eurosceptics across the continent will start to look longingly at independent London.

    This is the great French fear. By this guy's account it does stalk their nightmares.
    The French are trying to restrict travel to essential only.
    By blocking British residents of Belgium or the Netherlands who want to use EuroTunnel and transit France?
    Are the blocking British? Or just anyone who isn't EU/Schengen?
    Travel from the UK to France

    URGENT UPDATE FOR BRITISH RESIDENTS IN EU

    Following a French Government decision, on 28/12/2021, unless they hold French residency, British citizens are now considered 3rd country citizens and can no longer transit France by road to reach their country of residence in the EU.


    https://www.eurotunnel.com/uk/travelling-with-us/latest/covid-19/#foca
    So they can go by train, but not by car.

    Opportunity for some enterprising young French unemployed person
  • The reason why the LibDems were so successful in the North Shropshire by-election is precisely because it was a by-election. Although they can dream of leapfrogging over Labour in similar circumstances across the country in a General Election, they just don't have the resources to do do. Whilst Labour has got a workforce in depth in virtually every seat, and can mount a credible winning campaign in every target marginal, the LibDems can't. They won North Shropshire by mobilising their (scanty) workforce from across the country and concentrating it all in one place, thereby giving the impression of a greater workforce than they really have. In a General Election, they'll be lucky if they can get enough activists into all their obvious target seats, let alone all the other North Shropshires.
This discussion has been closed.