I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
It's not religion. I could take that. There might be some interest in that. It's garbage.
Mornin' all! I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)? There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
"When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)?"
Call me an old-fashioned democrat but I think the convention is that the actual result does not get published until after the vote.
Quite. I meant, of course, when will the various vote totals be published by the Returning Officer? TBH I wouldn't normally expect a result until mid-day in such a spread-out, rural constituency.
Reluctant as I am to believe anything in the Mail, I think this time they may be right. Is the Government trying to divert attention from some other bog-up?
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
That’s proper lockdown. Gosh. Who could have predicted THAT??
A re-post for Sean, in case you missed it earlier this evening:
Breaking, from press conference in Oslo:
Norway is to enforce a total ban on the sale of alcohol in pubs, bars and restaurants for at least the next 4 weeks.
Wait. They're banning alcohol in pubs and bars, but allowing them to stay open? Why exactly?
Sorry, I thought it was obvious.
Intoxicated people lose their inhibitions (case study: Sean). Lost inhibition means not respecting social distancing, or worse (snogging, sex).
Sober people are safer people.
I know. But why would you go to a bar without alcohol? Is this just a way to avoid compensation by not having ordered them closed?
Jeepers creepers. Are you so deep in the arms of the marketing men that the possibility of a night out without intoxicating liquor is beyond your comprehension??
Meeting friends, eating, having a (soft) drink, laughing, socialising, living.
Life goes on without alcohol you know.
When you’re normally the designated driver, that’s a normal visit to the pub.
Have your friends all lost their licences? If not have a word about distributive justice.
Excellent commentary. Many won't look further than the 'war on woke' headlines. The reality seems to be a determined effort to erode rights that Raab doesn't like.
The 200,000 Omicron cases per day claim is being discussed uncritically as fact on BBC Breakfast at the moment. Doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody that we now have an implied case rate (given most cases are still Delta) of a million a day, yet somehow only 50k cases are being picked up by test and the country isn't collapsing under the massive weight of illness.
Turnips.
Yes, it is shocking that the media is repeating this without realising that an error was made. Especially given that the error was thoroughly aired yesterday.
Obviously Javid - who is maybe suffering from a cognitive disorder if as Health Secretary he's incapable of digesting the one most pertinent bit of data - should have said 200,000 people infected with Omicron in total, out of a total of 1.5 million currently infected with COVID.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Yes, a certified negative test within 48 hours seems a better passport.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
That’s proper lockdown. Gosh. Who could have predicted THAT??
A re-post for Sean, in case you missed it earlier this evening:
Breaking, from press conference in Oslo:
Norway is to enforce a total ban on the sale of alcohol in pubs, bars and restaurants for at least the next 4 weeks.
Wait. They're banning alcohol in pubs and bars, but allowing them to stay open? Why exactly?
Sorry, I thought it was obvious.
Intoxicated people lose their inhibitions (case study: Sean). Lost inhibition means not respecting social distancing, or worse (snogging, sex).
Sober people are safer people.
I know. But why would you go to a bar without alcohol? Is this just a way to avoid compensation by not having ordered them closed?
Jeepers creepers. Are you so deep in the arms of the marketing men that the possibility of a night out without intoxicating liquor is beyond your comprehension??
Meeting friends, eating, having a (soft) drink, laughing, socialising, living.
Life goes on without alcohol you know.
When you’re normally the designated driver, that’s a normal visit to the pub.
Yepp. That’s often my fate these days. You get used to it. But you do tend to notice how boring drunk people can be. Puts you off alcohol sometimes.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Duh? What a silly post.
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital. 2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely. 3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?
How many unvaccinated people that are statistically vulnerable to complications regularly go to nightclubs? If the primary goal of vaxports is to indirectly improve vaccine uptake, how about instead using a direct lever that will be far more impactful on that goal, without infringing on the civil liberties of those already vaccinated?
Taxes and tax credits perhaps, which would have the added benefit of linking the public health costs of vaccine refusal back to the unvaccinated individual.
Why are so many people so unable to critically engage their brains on this?
The 200,000 Omicron cases per day claim is being discussed uncritically as fact on BBC Breakfast at the moment. Doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody that we now have an implied case rate (given most cases are still Delta) of a million a day, yet somehow only 50k cases are being picked up by test and the country isn't collapsing under the massive weight of illness.
Turnips.
Perhaps the BBC Could get their fake news checker to work on their own output
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
They were criticised for it on the grounds of it being religious, rather than on the grounds of it being rubbish, and so now feel that they have to hold onto it in their current form, or they will be seen as buckling to pressure from the non-religious.
I think/hope that there are enough non-religious people with interesting things to say that opening the slot up to philosophers, psychologists, etc, in addition to the religious ministers, would help to rescue it from its current banality.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
To be fair, that used to be the law! (Under the 39 Articles) so he would just be reaching into the past for inspiration
IIRC there wasn't anything about 'hating Scotland' was there? Might have been something about Scots, of course!
This third dose is has wiped us both out. Can barely raise myself out of bed.
It wasn't the clubbing until dawn ?
Hope you're better soon. I was lucky with no apparent reaction to the booster, while the first AZN dose floored me for a day. What to expect seems pretty random.
I suspect it's got a lot to do with whether your body currently has recently had a Covid infection or not - vaccination after a mild infection could explain why some people reacted so badly to a jab / booster.
It's why we shifted our boosters to January because tomorrow (when we were booked to get our boosters) is on the 4 week limit from when the Mrs was infected - waiting another 2 weeks just feels sensible.
I had Covid, and got my booster the day after the post infection limit expired, so it doesn't appear to be that.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
For example a Brit married to a Ukranian national could be deemed eligible for a Ukranian passport and refused entry to the UK.
People are voting for the Face Eating Leopards Party again.
No they’re not.
North Lab 49% Con 29% Midlands L 47% C 33% South C 43% L 35% London L 48 C 27
England L 43% C 35# Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13% Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%
Women L 42% C 30% Men L 37% C 33%
UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%
(On behalf of ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Survation interviewed 1,218 adults online aged 18+ living in the UK between 10th and 11th December 2021.)
‘Government’s Test and Trace service could run until 2025, consulting contracts suggest’ - One of four new deals worth up to £111m indicate foreign travel rules may also be in force for years
Covid testing for travel purposes could be with us for decades. The security rules restricting the carriage of liquids on aircraft, for example, were introduced fifteen years ago and there's still no sign of them being repealed.
God alone knows how many Covid variant panics we're going to have to go through before the authorities stop getting the jitters over them.
I suppose the only hope in this case is that COVID testing is such a deterrent to travel the industry will lobby so hard to get rid. Not taking liquids is stupid (as experts have shown they can still easily make a bomb) and a pain, but it isn't anywhere near as problematic as COVID testing.
I never understood the problem with liquids. Why on Earth do you need them with you in the hold? Stick them all in your checked bag, if you really need to take them. Why anyone goes to that ludicrous faff of decanting stuff is beyond me. Pretty much every hotel on Earth supplies shampoo.
It was supposed to be a temporary measure in response to 9/11.
It might have been implemented in response to 9/11, but did they say it was temporary?
Most of the measures imposed after 9/11 were supposed to be temporary as I recall.
If the travel industry want to encourage more people to fly, they should stop bumping their gums about Covid precautions, which the public largely support, and reduce their petty restrictions, such as the rule about liquids, and call off the jobsworths that enjoy enforcing them. Flying, and airports, have gone from being part of the journey, to the purgatory you have to endure first.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
There are occasional ones I listen to. Most have me switching immediately to R5 at the first sound of their voice. Anne Atkins as soon as the first syllable of her name is announced.
I would guess it ticks some public service remit box.
The trick is to time your morning such that you take a trip to the smallest room in the house at about ten to eight.
The 200,000 Omicron cases per day claim is being discussed uncritically as fact on BBC Breakfast at the moment. Doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody that we now have an implied case rate (given most cases are still Delta) of a million a day, yet somehow only 50k cases are being picked up by test and the country isn't collapsing under the massive weight of illness.
Turnips.
Yes, it is shocking that the media is repeating this without realising that an error was made. Especially given that the error was thoroughly aired yesterday.
Obviously Javid - who is maybe suffering from a cognitive disorder if as Health Secretary he's incapable of digesting the one most pertinent bit of data - should have said 200,000 people infected with Omicron in total, out of a total of 1.5 million currently infected with COVID.
Hope you are right. If 1.5m in UK are currently infected with Covid the hospitalisation rate (and even the symptomatic rate) is tiny.
Excellent commentary. Many won't look further than the 'war on woke' headlines. The reality seems to be a determined effort to erode rights that Raab doesn't like.
Especially when coupled with other pieces of legislation.
I fear that it deliberately sets out to fail. Ultimately, the rights derive from the Convention so when these steps don't allow the government to do what it wants without any checks the next step will be to argue that withdrawal from the ECHR is necessary.
This is a government that simply does not understand that checks and balances are essential to a democracy not a roadblock to it.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Duh? What a silly post.
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital. 2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely. 3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?
Vaccine status certification is another NPI deployed in Scotland and Wales, but not in England, that appears - from comparison of case rates between the jurisdictions - to have made little or no difference to anything. And that's no surprise. Only about 10% of people over 12 have declined the vaccines, and - about a year into the rollout - we can safely conclude that (the tiny number of medical exemptions aside) these are hardcore refusers who are going to need to be hit with far worse punishments than not being allowed to go clubbing to get them to budge.
But I do agree that, if you are going to go down that road, the LFT cop-out renders the entire scheme a transparent sham. Nobody actually has to use the LFT to be able to input its code into the website and declare a negative test, and there are no means for the put upon staff checking negative status at venues to establish that the individual has lied unless they are obviously ill when they turn up on the doors.
This third dose is has wiped us both out. Can barely raise myself out of bed.
It wasn't the clubbing until dawn ?
Hope you're better soon. I was lucky with no apparent reaction to the booster, while the first AZN dose floored me for a day. What to expect seems pretty random.
I suspect it's got a lot to do with whether your body currently has recently had a Covid infection or not - vaccination after a mild infection could explain why some people reacted so badly to a jab / booster.
It's why we shifted our boosters to January because tomorrow (when we were booked to get our boosters) is on the 4 week limit from when the Mrs was infected - waiting another 2 weeks just feels sensible.
I had Covid, and got my booster the day after the post infection limit expired, so it doesn't appear to be that.
Your immunity to Omicron should be very high indeed.
A secret American unit code-named “Talon Anvil” has been accused by its own staff of killing so many civilians in the war against Islamic State that even CIA officers complained.
Leaks to The New York Times revealed that most of the strikes carried out by the US-led coalition against Isis, of which there were more than 100,000, were not ordered by senior officers but by a small unit operating from offices at first in Iraq and later in northeast Syria. Talon Anvil was led by “Delta” special forces and consisted at any one time of fewer than 20 people, who monitored the fighting on the ground round the clock via giant television screens. It issued orders for jet and drone strikes on a widening range... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/secret-us-unit-nicknamed-talon-anvil-bombed-civilians-isis-68fgkf22l (£££)
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Duh? What a silly post.
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital. 2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely. 3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?
Excuse me.
1. I agree completely and I was pro vaccine passes as you will see from my previous posts for that reason but that isn't the the issue currently.
2. Re Omicron not true for doubled as opposed triple vax which can make big events super spreaders.
3. Not 100% but now (not before) significantly superior to being double jabbed. See evidence from Scotland.
As the situation changes you have to change actions. Previously a vax certificate was the best route but Omicron has changed that. A triple vax certificate may change that but we aren't there yet with numbers jabbed or the evidence.
This third dose is has wiped us both out. Can barely raise myself out of bed.
It wasn't the clubbing until dawn ?
Hope you're better soon. I was lucky with no apparent reaction to the booster, while the first AZN dose floored me for a day. What to expect seems pretty random.
I suspect it's got a lot to do with whether your body currently has recently had a Covid infection or not - vaccination after a mild infection could explain why some people reacted so badly to a jab / booster.
It's why we shifted our boosters to January because tomorrow (when we were booked to get our boosters) is on the 4 week limit from when the Mrs was infected - waiting another 2 weeks just feels sensible.
I had Covid, and got my booster the day after the post infection limit expired, so it doesn't appear to be that.
But you don't know how you would have felt if you had had the booster a week earlier having not been aware you were had had Covid?
My point is that 1 reason why people may feel ill after having the jab is because they are currently (and unknowingly) fighting a Covid (or other) infection.
‘Government’s Test and Trace service could run until 2025, consulting contracts suggest’ - One of four new deals worth up to £111m indicate foreign travel rules may also be in force for years
Covid testing for travel purposes could be with us for decades. The security rules restricting the carriage of liquids on aircraft, for example, were introduced fifteen years ago and there's still no sign of them being repealed.
God alone knows how many Covid variant panics we're going to have to go through before the authorities stop getting the jitters over them.
I suppose the only hope in this case is that COVID testing is such a deterrent to travel the industry will lobby so hard to get rid. Not taking liquids is stupid (as experts have shown they can still easily make a bomb) and a pain, but it isn't anywhere near as problematic as COVID testing.
I never understood the problem with liquids. Why on Earth do you need them with you in the hold? Stick them all in your checked bag, if you really need to take them. Why anyone goes to that ludicrous faff of decanting stuff is beyond me. Pretty much every hotel on Earth supplies shampoo.
It was supposed to be a temporary measure in response to 9/11.
It might have been implemented in response to 9/11, but did they say it was temporary?
Most of the measures imposed after 9/11 were supposed to be temporary as I recall.
If the travel industry want to encourage more people to fly, they should stop bumping their gums about Covid precautions, which the public largely support, and reduce their petty restrictions, such as the rule about liquids, and call off the jobsworths that enjoy enforcing them. Flying, and airports, have gone from being part of the journey, to the purgatory you have to endure first.
You know the rules about Liquids on planes are because of certain attack methods discovered in early 2000s that don't have easy mitigation - so liquids are restricted to fall below the amount required to cause lethal damage.
The 200,000 Omicron cases per day claim is being discussed uncritically as fact on BBC Breakfast at the moment. Doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody that we now have an implied case rate (given most cases are still Delta) of a million a day, yet somehow only 50k cases are being picked up by test and the country isn't collapsing under the massive weight of illness.
Turnips.
Yes, it is shocking that the media is repeating this without realising that an error was made. Especially given that the error was thoroughly aired yesterday.
Obviously Javid - who is maybe suffering from a cognitive disorder if as Health Secretary he's incapable of digesting the one most pertinent bit of data - should have said 200,000 people infected with Omicron in total, out of a total of 1.5 million currently infected with COVID.
Walker and Nugent were discussing the numbers with their regular scientists earlier and the latter failed to challenge the numbers, either. This is either part of a massive conspiracy of misinformation intended to terrify the public into getting their booster jabs (unnecessary - most folk by this stage of the game are either vaccine enthusiasts or heel diggers,) or the average IQ of the entire British establishment is about 78 and most of them are therefore utterly incapable of spotting arrant nonsense.
Fortunately I have reached the past caring stage of this whole catastrophe and can therefore laugh about all of this, otherwise it would be deeply depressing.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
It's not religion. I could take that. There might be some interest in that. It's garbage.
What we need is a good Redemptorist preacher on Thought for the Day, like Father Joseph Furniss:
Ps. xx. Thou shalt make him as an oven of fire in the time of thy anger.
You are going to see again the child about which you read in the Terrible Judgement, that it was condemned to hell. See! It is a pitiful sight. The little child is in this red hot oven. Hear how it screams to come out. See how it turns and twists itself about in the fire. It beats its head against the roof of the oven. It stamps its little feet on the floor of the oven. You can see on the face of this little child what you see on the faces of all in hell -- despair, desperate and horrible! The same law which is for others is also for children. If children, knowingly and willingly, break God's commandments, they must also be punished like others. This child committed very bad mortal sins, knowing well the harm of what it was doing, and knowing that hell would be the punishment. God was very good to this child. Very likely God saw that this child would get worse and worse, and would never repent, and so it would have to be punished much more in hell. So God, in His mercy, called it out of the world in its early childhood.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Duh? What a silly post.
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital. 2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely. 3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?
How many unvaccinated people that are statistically vulnerable to complications regularly go to nightclubs? If the primary goal of vaxports is to indirectly improve vaccine uptake, how about instead using a direct lever that will be far more impactful on that goal, without infringing on the civil liberties of those already vaccinated?
Taxes and tax credits perhaps, which would have the added benefit of linking the public health costs of vaccine refusal back to the unvaccinated individual.
Why are so many people so unable to critically engage their brains on this?
I don't think anything much short of tying entitlement to both employment and social security to vaccination status is going to force most of the remaining heel diggers to give in, and I don't think either the Government or Labour are prepared to countenance being that nasty.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Duh? What a silly post.
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital. 2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely. 3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?
Excuse me.
1. I agree completely and I was pro vaccine passes as you will see from my previous posts for that reason but that isn't the the issue currently.
2. Re Omicron not true for doubled as opposed triple vax which can make big events super spreaders.
3. Not 100% but now (not before) significantly superior to being double jabbed. See evidence from Scotland.
As the situation changes you have to change actions. Previously a vax certificate was the best route but Omicron has changed that. A triple vax certificate may change that but we aren't there yet with numbers jabbed or the evidence.
Note I am only talking about events here. People should be encouraged to have vaccines and I am pro vax passports to bar those who refuse to take the vaccine from venues, bars, etc. Otherwise it is akin to smoking in venues. You can smoke or not have a vaccine, but don't expect to be allowed to impact others by doing so in a venue, bar, etc.
But with Omicron we also sadly need lateral flow tests now for the time being to get into venues because double vax does not stop you being a spreader.
The Sky News website still has a story up claiming 200,000 Omicron per day, representing 20% of cases.
Surely the headline should be:
"800,00 cases of Delta variant each day"
They are too thick to realise that it doesn't smell right.
Every news outlet I’ve looked at today is repeating it. I’ve had my mother messaging me terrified about it. She is from a generation that trusts government and assumes journalists are well informed. The arseholes that run out country are creating a sick society with this behaviour.
The size of the Tory rebellion today will make further restrictions very difficult for the government until the data on Omicron severity in a highly vaccinated population is much more apparent.
If I had to guess, I'd say that means we won't see anything until the other side of Christmas. And fingers crossed hospitalisations remain at levels where no further actions are needed at that point.
Cool. Although that does bring up a couple of issues: 1) How many people enter the example as their code; I suspect a non-trivial number of people do. 2) I hope the example is from a range of invalid or unallocated ones codes...
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Yes, a certified negative test within 48 hours seems a better passport.
Who* certifies, who pays and at what price? Sounds like a good scam (aka new business venture) for an obliging Tory donor, and a way for the rich to continue their entertainment as normal whilst the young and poor suffer.
* (as in who not W.H.O.)
I think we could go a bit further on increasing the chance LFTs are genuine by the website demanding a photo of the test for the event pass to apply. You could still cheat the test but by increasing the effort to do so, a higher proportion would take it. It could all be checked by computer and would cost little to implement.
Based on what I am seeing and feeling around the bits of the economy I interact with, it does feel like there are a lot of infections out there which weren't before.
200k a day already is a truly alarming figure. We know just how sodding infectious is, and we know that it does a good job of running around the back of the vaccines (hence the terrible urgency to get a 3rd dose into everyone).
In reality if we're already at 200k then the booster programme has failed before it started. I am not saying that in criticism, this thing has exploded out of nowhere.
So Plan B like a Rishi budget update last spring feels like it will be replaced very quickly. I have predicted we limp through Christmas and lockdown before we get to New Year. I now wonder if we will make it that far. Cancelling Christmas again with be the apocalypseofuck for the government. They honestly may not have a choice.
Bugger
No worries. We can just all wear a mask in public. No problem. Surely that’s the cure all, even if we’re higher risk
It will help! My point is that if that many people are going to catch it that we're going to see chunks of the economy stop, lockdown or not. Every person who catches this - whether it is "mild" or not, is going to not be at work for at least 10 days. Also many of the people they live with or work directly alongside.
When it was people exposed to Covid but not sick with Covid, we called it the "pingdemic". This time its the real deal - it might not kill you or put you in hospital thank God but it will still knock you over...
The size of the Tory rebellion today will make further restrictions very difficult for the government until the data on Omicron severity in a highly vaccinated population is much more apparent.
If I had to guess, I'd say that means we won't see anything until the other side of Christmas. And fingers crossed hospitalisations remain at levels where no further actions are needed at that point.
I don’t know how much Johnson really cares about that if he can get what he wants through thanks to Starmer and use it all to distract from the stench of corruption.
It’s going to need a confidence vote from the party to stop him doing what’s most convenient for him personally.
I personally believe that the Lib Dems are going to win NS and that it won't be that close but its nice to see Labour giving the government a helping hand.
NS has come at a bad time for the government with the hysteria about various things bubbling up and Boris's standing collapsing. They face a lot of irritation from their natural supporters for doing too much in response to Omicron and a lot of criticism from most for not doing even more. Plus its a by election, a free hit to tell the government that we are not happy with our lot and the Lib Dems are good at pointless gestures. If we are really lucky we might get a rerun of Ed Davey playing with his lego bricks.
Good morning
Listening to the media yesterday, and this morning 5 live business, I really fear we are in the biggest peacetime crisis for a generation so much so that I expect the tsunami of problems hurtling down the line for governments across the world will engulf them to the point that governments of national unity, as in wartime, will be needed to even start to address the extreme crisis hitting all health services including huge increases in mental health and the energy and economic demands which are so serious that partisan political solutions will not even start to address them
The only problem is just how we get a government of national unity before the next GE
And sorry for being so downbeat
I think you are watching too much mainstream media.
The first MRNA shot is fine. The second wipes you out. The third is a doozy.
I was AZ-AZ-PFE and got hit at 20 hours. But nothing a 2 hour nap mid afternoon couldn’t fix
I was AZ-AZ-MD
No effects from Astrazenca at all.
With Moderana I was fine for the first 24hrs and then I felt somewhat unwell for a couple of days. Mainly just tiredness which made me sleep a lot.
Gradually wore off over the following 2-3 days and I feel back to normal now.
Triple Pfizered and apart from a dead arm I had no real reaction to any of them. I have pondered what this means, but having lived with someone who had Covid and it was Delta the vaccine must have done something.
Omicron came into the world and the world knew him not. He came unto his own, and his own received him not. But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name.
Omicron will save the world from the evil Delta and those that went before.
Based on what I am seeing and feeling around the bits of the economy I interact with, it does feel like there are a lot of infections out there which weren't before.
200k a day already is a truly alarming figure. We know just how sodding infectious is, and we know that it does a good job of running around the back of the vaccines (hence the terrible urgency to get a 3rd dose into everyone).
In reality if we're already at 200k then the booster programme has failed before it started. I am not saying that in criticism, this thing has exploded out of nowhere.
So Plan B like a Rishi budget update last spring feels like it will be replaced very quickly. I have predicted we limp through Christmas and lockdown before we get to New Year. I now wonder if we will make it that far. Cancelling Christmas again with be the apocalypseofuck for the government. They honestly may not have a choice.
Bugger
No worries. We can just all wear a mask in public. No problem. Surely that’s the cure all, even if we’re higher risk
It will help! My point is that if that many people are going to catch it that we're going to see chunks of the economy stop, lockdown or not. Every person who catches this - whether it is "mild" or not, is going to not be at work for at least 10 days. Also many of the people they live with or work directly alongside.
When it was people exposed to Covid but not sick with Covid, we called it the "pingdemic". This time its the real deal - it might not kill you or put you in hospital thank God but it will still knock you over...
It’s all well and good coming up with this stuff. But don’t you have to look first at the live case study in South Africa, to see whether their society has ground to a halt?
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
They were criticised for it on the grounds of it being religious, rather than on the grounds of it being rubbish, and so now feel that they have to hold onto it in their current form, or they will be seen as buckling to pressure from the non-religious.
I think/hope that there are enough non-religious people with interesting things to say that opening the slot up to philosophers, psychologists, etc, in addition to the religious ministers, would help to rescue it from its current banality.
1) There are a handful of TFTD contributors who are very good.
2) Even the worst are no worse than the evasive non answering politicians who dominate the programme
3) The worst are no worse than the shroud waving, tax payer funding seeking single issue fanatics who dominate the news agenda
4) R4 is largely run by and for secular liberals; a two minute break from their wearying agendas does little harm. Secular ideas and philosophies get loads of space.
5) TFTD replaced decades ago a proper short religious devotional spot called 'Lift Up Your Hearts'. Perhaps we should imitate Irish radio (till recent years) and broadcast the Angelus at regular intervals instead. Or maybe random short bursts of 'Missa Papae Marcelli'. It would make a change.
I am not sure if I am just in a bad mood, but the media and politics this morning seems particularly full of trite and banal words and phrases,
So, in no particular order, here is my lame list for 2021:
1. Indulgent 2. Iconic 3. Curated 4. Getting on with the job 5. Katie Price 6. Intimate 7. Any headline with words in CAPITAL letters 8. Rees Mogg 9. Omicron 10. Bubbles
This third dose is has wiped us both out. Can barely raise myself out of bed.
I find it very odd. I had AZ/AZ/Moderna and nothing for any of the three, not even a sore arm. Yet others have these reactions.
I know people who say they have not had a cold in 10 years and others who get half a dozen a year. We are all very different despite being extremely similar!
The 200,000 Omicron cases per day claim is being discussed uncritically as fact on BBC Breakfast at the moment. Doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody that we now have an implied case rate (given most cases are still Delta) of a million a day, yet somehow only 50k cases are being picked up by test and the country isn't collapsing under the massive weight of illness.
Turnips.
Yes, it is shocking that the media is repeating this without realising that an error was made. Especially given that the error was thoroughly aired yesterday.
Obviously Javid - who is maybe suffering from a cognitive disorder if as Health Secretary he's incapable of digesting the one most pertinent bit of data - should have said 200,000 people infected with Omicron in total, out of a total of 1.5 million currently infected with COVID.
Walker and Nugent were discussing the numbers with their regular scientists earlier and the latter failed to challenge the numbers, either. This is either part of a massive conspiracy of misinformation intended to terrify the public into getting their booster jabs (unnecessary - most folk by this stage of the game are either vaccine enthusiasts or heel diggers,) or the average IQ of the entire British establishment is about 78 and most of them are therefore utterly incapable of spotting arrant nonsense.
Fortunately I have reached the past caring stage of this whole catastrophe and can therefore laugh about all of this, otherwise it would be deeply depressing.
After reading that Raab gave two rather different estimates today for the number of Omicron hospitalisations - namely 9 and 250 - I'd suggest ignoring anything said by a politician and waiting for something said by a medical or scientific officer preferably in writing, to avoid mistakes.
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
I am not sure if I am just in a bad mood, but the media and politics this morning seems particularly full of trite and banal words and phrases,
So, in no particular order, here is my lame list for 2021:
1. Indulgent 2. Iconic 3. Curated 4. Getting on with the job 5. Katie Price 6. Intimate 7. Any headline with words in CAPITAL letters 8. Rees Mogg 9. Omicron 10. Bubbles
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
Welcome to the club grandad! All the fun and few of the responsibilities.
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
That's very true Paul Simon, just don't call me Betty.
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
Hadn't noticed that post - make it 24 please. Congrats Al!
I have my booster booked for 22nd December. If the "24 hours after" is accurate then that'll be me wiped out for much of the 23rd and 24th.
Which is reassuring as I have three Christmas Eve services to play for. I should apologise in advance to the congregation if this year's carols are slower and contain even more wrong notes than usual, and if the spectacular voluntary at the end turns out as a lethargic version of "Twinkle Twinkle Little Star".
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
Hadn't noticed that post - make it 24 please. Congrats Al!
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
Can't remember but (mild rant) it beggars belief that computers cannot handle spaces in NHS numbers, phone numbers, credit card numbers and so on. Older PBers might remember me defending Priti Patel stumbling over large numbers which were probably printed without proper formatting in her script.
I didn't type spaces, only a continuous string, just like your tel. no or postcode.
When I do online banking, the space inserts automatically after the previous digit when doing my sort code.
The size of the Tory rebellion today will make further restrictions very difficult for the government until the data on Omicron severity in a highly vaccinated population is much more apparent.
If I had to guess, I'd say that means we won't see anything until the other side of Christmas. And fingers crossed hospitalisations remain at levels where no further actions are needed at that point.
I don’t know how much Johnson really cares about that if he can get what he wants through thanks to Starmer and use it all to distract from the stench of corruption.
It’s going to need a confidence vote from the party to stop him doing what’s most convenient for him personally.
The confidence vote must be a real concern for him though when nearly 100 MPs have rebelled against milder measures. Especially if the Tories lose on Thursday.
It means the threshold for new restrictions is higher than it would be otherwise.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has the virus present up their nostrils but is completely unaware then is this a case or not and who cares?
That is hardly likely to instill fear in the public. Stocky please think!
I have my booster booked for 22nd December. If the "24 hours after" is accurate then that'll be me wiped out for much of the 23rd and 24th.
Which is reassuring as I have three Christmas Eve services to play for. I should apologise in advance to the congregation if this year's carols are slower and contain even more wrong notes than usual, and if the spectacular voluntary at the end turns out as a lethargic version of "Twinkle Twinkle Little Star".
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It’s not completely unknowable though is it. If we really had a multiples increase in total covid cases in a week, we’d expect to see the positivity rate higher than 5% no?
I am not sure if I am just in a bad mood, but the media and politics this morning seems particularly full of trite and banal words and phrases,
So, in no particular order, here is my lame list for 2021:
1. Indulgent 2. Iconic 3. Curated 4. Getting on with the job 5. Katie Price 6. Intimate 7. Any headline with words in CAPITAL letters 8. Rees Mogg 9. Omicron 10. Bubbles
Cicero is clearly not a fan of the ICONIC Daily Mail, despite their carefully curated coverage of an indulgent PARTY hosted by Jacob Rees Mogg, where the bubbles flowed, as did rumours about a scientist who should have been getting on with the job researching Omicron, but was actually GETTING IT ON and intimate with KATIE PRICE instead.
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
Congratulations, Al, that's great news. Best wishes to all of your family, especially the mother of your grandchild!
I am not sure if I am just in a bad mood, but the media and politics this morning seems particularly full of trite and banal words and phrases,
So, in no particular order, here is my lame list for 2021:
1. Indulgent 2. Iconic 3. Curated 4. Getting on with the job 5. Katie Price 6. Intimate 7. Any headline with words in CAPITAL letters 8. Rees Mogg 9. Omicron 10. Bubbles
Levelling Up?
One that you almost never hear nowadays was that old Gordon Brown favourite: “settled will of the Scottish people”.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It's a case, it's also a case if the person doesn't have the test but not a known one.
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It’s not completely unknowable though is it. If we really had a multiples increase in total covid cases in a week, we’d expect to see the positivity rate higher than 5% no?
Only if they are getting tested in the first place
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
It's not religion. I could take that. There might be some interest in that. It's garbage.
My NHS Number is of the form DDMMYYNNNN. If that's the case for everyone then the number given is not a valid number.
Mine is, as far as I can see, completely random numbers so they don't have to be birthday related.
My NHS number neither contains my date of birth nor, sadly, does it contain a locomotive number I can share a picture of.
NHS numbers and number formats have their own wikipedia page. There does not seem to be any scope for NHS numbers starting with birthdays or any dates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_number
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It's a case, it's also a case if the person doesn't have the test but not a known one.
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
By that logic every single person should be doing a LFT every day.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It's a case, it's also a case if the person doesn't have the test but not a known one.
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
By that logic every single person should be doing a LFT every day.
We have all been recommended to do two a week since the summer.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
OK.
50k cases per day confirmed by testing has approximated very roughly to double or a bit more in the monitoring report. So, that means underlying case rate is probably 100-125k.
If we take the 20% S dropout at face value, that means 20-25k Omicron cases a day, of which perhaps 10k will show up in the testing by sample date for 13-14/12 (whose figures aren't fully in yet). Perhaps 5-7k Omicron in yesterday's by report date figures. Note that these will be very heavily concentrated towards London as the main hotspot currently (perhaps 3-5k of the 11.7k London by report date yesterday).
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It’s not completely unknowable though is it. If we really had a multiples increase in total covid cases in a week, we’d expect to see the positivity rate higher than 5% no?
Only if they are getting tested in the first place
It would be odd if the rise in actual new infections was limited solely to people who refuse to get tested.
My NHS Number is of the form DDMMYYNNNN. If that's the case for everyone then the number given is not a valid number.
Mine isn't anything like that format. I can't see any connection between the number and my birthdate.
Interesting. I suppose you'd expect about 68 people to have numbers matching their birth dates by chance, more if you allow for birth dates at different positions in the number, but it's unlikely to be chance - my wife's is the same. We must have hit upon an entry point to the system that generates the NHS number in a different way.
I am not sure if I am just in a bad mood, but the media and politics this morning seems particularly full of trite and banal words and phrases,
So, in no particular order, here is my lame list for 2021:
1. Indulgent 2. Iconic 3. Curated 4. Getting on with the job 5. Katie Price 6. Intimate 7. Any headline with words in CAPITAL letters 8. Rees Mogg 9. Omicron 10. Bubbles
As if a Christmas song by Ed Sheeran and Elton John wasn't enough to put your teeth on edge already, its lyrics contain the intolerable sin against grammar of "it's Christmas time for you and I." Jesus! We truly are living in an age of idiocy. Somebody pass me the launch codes.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
It's not religion. I could take that. There might be some interest in that. It's garbage.
You mean the BBC is using it's required time on religion to inculcate an indifference to religion by associating it with piffel - well I never.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
OK.
50k cases per day confirmed by testing has approximated very roughly to double or a bit more in the monitoring report. So, that means underlying case rate is probably 100-125k.
If we take the 20% S dropout at face value, that means 20-25k Omicron cases a day, of which perhaps 10k will show up in the testing by sample date for 13-14/12 (whose figures aren't fully in yet). Perhaps 5-7k Omicron in yesterday's by report date figures. Note that these will be very heavily concentrated towards London as the main hotspot currently (perhaps 3-5k of the 11.7k London by report date yesterday).
Surely the first thing that needs to be done here is clarify what per day means?
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It's a case, it's also a case if the person doesn't have the test but not a known one.
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
By that logic every single person should be doing a LFT every day.
If you wanted to pick up true prevalence that's how you'd have to do it. Note schoolchildren during term time are subject to this regime (Well twice a week) so their prevalence during term time is likely a far truer measure than the general population. What is done with that information is up to the powers that be, but from a purely scientific perspective more data is always better. If it is still circulating but asymptomatically enough you could have an argument to drop quarantine for +ve cases even and revert back to the normal stopping in if you feel rough that we do for every other infectious disease.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Whitehall officials can draw up whatever plans they want, Parliament will vote them down if they mean another lockdown as most Tory MPs will vote against them and topple any Tory PM who tries to implement them.
1/3 of Tory MPs will vote against vaxports tomorrow, around 2/3 of Tory MPs would vote against another lockdown. Boosters are the way out of Omicron not locking down again
Are you seriously suggesting that a government lockdown would be voted down? It would bring down the government and split the Tory Party asunder for a generation. Splendid idea! Carry on!
Of course another government lockdown would be voted down as it would put the Tories out for a generation after recent events. It would also not bring down the government as Tory MPs would just replace the PM with an anti lockdown leader who would then become PM instead
It is not happening, the focus will be the booster campaign and at most expanded vaxports in January
Even 200k for Delta and Omicron together looks dubious.
Why ?
Because that would be 4x the official number.
Given that there have been nearly 11m official cases in total that would suggest over 40m total infections.
And then you need to add millions more and x4 to take into account the minimal levels of testing in spring last year.
Not least as we're at an all time high for testing (currently growing test numbers faster than recorded cases) - so if it's 4x now it's likely to have been considerably worse for large parts of this
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
It's not religion. I could take that. There might be some interest in that. It's garbage.
You mean the BBC is using it's required time on religion to inculcate an indifference to religion by associating it with piffel - well I never.
No, don't be silly. The religious bods they retain are bishops and rabbis and similar. The fault is with them, not the beeb.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It's a case, it's also a case if the person doesn't have the test but not a known one.
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
By that logic every single person should be doing a LFT every day.
We have all been recommended to do two a week since the summer.
Have we? I didn't know that. Goodness, my daughter did one this morning before school and the quantity of stuff; the swab sticks, trays, sachets, bags - all non-biodegradable and going to landfill.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
OK.
50k cases per day confirmed by testing has approximated very roughly to double or a bit more in the monitoring report. So, that means underlying case rate is probably 100-125k.
If we take the 20% S dropout at face value, that means 20-25k Omicron cases a day, of which perhaps 10k will show up in the testing by sample date for 13-14/12 (whose figures aren't fully in yet). Perhaps 5-7k Omicron in yesterday's by report date figures. Note that these will be very heavily concentrated towards London as the main hotspot currently (perhaps 3-5k of the 11.7k London by report date yesterday).
Great makes sense thanks. Do we think we know how long Omicron has been a "thing" in the UK.
OK so can we please clarify ( @Chris looking at you). How many Omicron cases do we think we have here and what is the daily current run rate.
It's unknowable isn't it. 5,000 ish we know of. How many do we not know of? Finger in the air job.
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
It's a case, it's also a case if the person doesn't have the test but not a known one.
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
By that logic every single person should be doing a LFT every day.
If you wanted to pick up true prevalence that's how you'd have to do it. Note schoolchildren during term time are subject to this regime (Well twice a week) so their prevalence during term time is likely a far truer measure than the general population.
Comments
Is the Government trying to divert attention from some other bog-up?
Many won't look further than the 'war on woke'
headlines. The reality seems to be a determined effort to erode rights that Raab doesn't like.
Obviously Javid - who is maybe suffering from a cognitive disorder if as Health Secretary he's incapable of digesting the one most pertinent bit of data - should have said 200,000 people infected with Omicron in total, out of a total of 1.5 million currently infected with COVID.
Taxes and tax credits perhaps, which would have the added benefit of linking the public health costs of vaccine refusal back to the unvaccinated individual.
Why are so many people so unable to critically engage their brains on this?
I think/hope that there are enough non-religious people with interesting things to say that opening the slot up to philosophers, psychologists, etc, in addition to the religious ministers, would help to rescue it from its current banality.
North Lab 49% Con 29%
Midlands L 47% C 33%
South C 43% L 35%
London L 48 C 27
England L 43% C 35#
Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13%
Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%
Women L 42% C 30%
Men L 37% C 33%
UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%
(On behalf of ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Survation interviewed 1,218 adults online aged 18+ living in the UK between 10th and 11th December 2021.)
I fear that it deliberately sets out to fail. Ultimately, the rights derive from the Convention so when these steps don't allow the government to do what it wants without any checks the next step will be to argue that withdrawal from the ECHR is necessary.
This is a government that simply does not understand that checks and balances are essential to a democracy not a roadblock to it.
But I do agree that, if you are going to go down that road, the LFT cop-out renders the entire scheme a transparent sham. Nobody actually has to use the LFT to be able to input its code into the website and declare a negative test, and there are no means for the put upon staff checking negative status at venues to establish that the individual has lied unless they are obviously ill when they turn up on the doors.
Leaks to The New York Times revealed that most of the strikes carried out by the US-led coalition against Isis, of which there were more than 100,000, were not ordered by senior officers but by a small unit operating from offices at first in Iraq and later in northeast Syria. Talon Anvil was led by “Delta” special forces and consisted at any one time of fewer than 20 people, who monitored the fighting on the ground round the clock via giant television screens. It issued orders for jet and drone strikes on a widening range...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/secret-us-unit-nicknamed-talon-anvil-bombed-civilians-isis-68fgkf22l (£££)
1. I agree completely and I was pro vaccine passes as you will see from my previous posts for that reason but that isn't the the issue currently.
2. Re Omicron not true for doubled as opposed triple vax which can make big events super spreaders.
3. Not 100% but now (not before) significantly superior to being double jabbed. See evidence from Scotland.
As the situation changes you have to change actions. Previously a vax certificate was the best route but Omicron has changed that. A triple vax certificate may change that but we aren't there yet with numbers jabbed or the evidence.
My point is that 1 reason why people may feel ill after having the jab is because they are currently (and unknowingly) fighting a Covid (or other) infection.
Fortunately I have reached the past caring stage of this whole catastrophe and can therefore laugh about all of this, otherwise it would be deeply depressing.
Ps. xx. Thou shalt make him as an oven of fire in the time of thy anger.
You are going to see again the child about which you read in the Terrible Judgement, that it was condemned to hell. See! It is a pitiful sight. The little child is in this red hot oven. Hear how it screams to come out. See how it turns and twists itself about in the fire. It beats its head against the roof of the oven. It stamps its little feet on the floor of the oven. You can see on the face of this little child what you see on the faces of all in hell -- despair, desperate and horrible! The same law which is for others is also for children. If children, knowingly and willingly, break God's commandments, they must also be punished like others. This child committed very bad mortal sins, knowing well the harm of what it was doing, and knowing that hell would be the punishment. God was very good to this child. Very likely God saw that this child would get worse and worse, and would never repent, and so it would have to be punished much more in hell. So God, in His mercy, called it out of the world in its early childhood.
Surely the headline should be:
"800,00 cases of Delta variant each day"
They are too thick to realise that it doesn't smell right.
"Omicron could launch an attack in 15 minutes and British bases in Cyprus are within range"
No effects from Astrazenca at all.
With Moderana I was fine for the first 24hrs and then I felt somewhat unwell for a couple of days. Mainly just tiredness which made me sleep a lot.
Gradually wore off over the following 2-3 days and I feel back to normal now.
But with Omicron we also sadly need lateral flow tests now for the time being to get into venues because double vax does not stop you being a spreader.
If I had to guess, I'd say that means we won't see anything until the other side of Christmas. And fingers crossed hospitalisations remain at levels where no further actions are needed at that point.
1) How many people enter the example as their code; I suspect a non-trivial number of people do.
2) I hope the example is from a range of invalid or unallocated ones codes...
* (as in who not W.H.O.)
I think we could go a bit further on increasing the chance LFTs are genuine by the website demanding a photo of the test for the event pass to apply. You could still cheat the test but by increasing the effort to do so, a higher proportion would take it. It could all be checked by computer and would cost little to implement.
When it was people exposed to Covid but not sick with Covid, we called it the "pingdemic". This time its the real deal - it might not kill you or put you in hospital thank God but it will still knock you over...
It’s going to need a confidence vote from the party to stop him doing what’s most convenient for him personally.
Omicron came into the world and the world knew him not.
He came unto his own, and his own received him not.
But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name.
Omicron will save the world from the evil Delta and those that went before.
2) Even the worst are no worse than the evasive non answering politicians who dominate the programme
3) The worst are no worse than the shroud waving, tax payer funding seeking single issue fanatics who dominate the news agenda
4) R4 is largely run by and for secular liberals; a two minute break from their wearying agendas does little harm. Secular ideas and philosophies get loads of space.
5) TFTD replaced decades ago a proper short religious devotional spot called 'Lift Up Your Hearts'. Perhaps we should imitate Irish radio (till recent years) and broadcast the Angelus at regular intervals instead. Or maybe random short bursts of 'Missa Papae Marcelli'. It would make a change.
So, in no particular order, here is my lame list for 2021:
1. Indulgent
2. Iconic
3. Curated
4. Getting on with the job
5. Katie Price
6. Intimate
7. Any headline with words in CAPITAL letters
8. Rees Mogg
9. Omicron
10. Bubbles
Just a note to say many thanks to all those who congratulated me on news of my grandfather-hood late last night, and the 23 who 'liked' my comment. Sod politics and betting - if you want to be appreciated on here, have a grandkid. Thanks folks.
Many congratulations
Which is reassuring as I have three Christmas Eve services to play for. I should apologise in advance to the congregation if this year's carols are slower and contain even more wrong notes than usual, and if the spectacular voluntary at the end turns out as a lethargic version of "Twinkle Twinkle Little Star".
Also, what is a Omicron case? If someone has been jabbed and boosted and has sufficient virus present up their nostrils to trigger a positive test result, but is completely unaware, then is this a case or not and who cares?
When I do online banking, the space inserts automatically after the previous digit when doing my sort code.
It means the threshold for new restrictions is higher than it would be otherwise.
I wonder why? 😉
The reasons for counting it as a case are
i) Ability to transmit onward
ii) Enchanced individual immunity in the general SEIR system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_number
Even 200k for Delta and Omicron together looks dubious.
Why ?
Because that would be 4x the official number.
Given that there have been nearly 11m official cases in total that would suggest over 40m total infections.
And then you need to add millions more and x4 to take into account the minimal levels of testing in spring last year.
50k cases per day confirmed by testing has approximated very roughly to double or a bit more in the monitoring report. So, that means underlying case rate is probably 100-125k.
If we take the 20% S dropout at face value, that means 20-25k Omicron cases a day, of which perhaps 10k will show up in the testing by sample date for 13-14/12 (whose figures aren't fully in yet). Perhaps 5-7k Omicron in yesterday's by report date figures. Note that these will be very heavily concentrated towards London as the main hotspot currently (perhaps 3-5k of the 11.7k London by report date yesterday).
New cases or people currently infected?
What is done with that information is up to the powers that be, but from a purely scientific perspective more data is always better. If it is still circulating but asymptomatically enough you could have an argument to drop quarantine for +ve cases even and revert back to the normal stopping in if you feel rough that we do for every other infectious disease.
It is not happening, the focus will be the booster campaign and at most expanded vaxports in January
Independent schools will soon lose their ability to claim charity relief on non-domestic business rates.
Private schools will lose a lucrative tax break next year after confirmation by the SNP/Green Government.
Fettes College, which educated former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, charges over £36,000 a year for boarding.
Gordonstoun, the alma mater of Princes Charles, rakes in over £40,000 a year to board senior pupils.
Posh Merchiston Castle school in Edinburgh also charges over £30,000 for some of their pupils.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/private-schools-scotland-set-lose-25686958