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My search to try to find a value North Shropshire bet – politicalbetting.com
My search to try to find a value North Shropshire bet – politicalbetting.com
Although I think that the LDs have a good chance in Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election I am not tempted by the current odds which currently rate the party’s chances at 61%. Even though we know that the party is “good” at Westminster by-elections this is far too tight. I would rate the party’s chances at evens but no tighter.
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(Well that worked out well)
How big is your stake then?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html
Does this lady ever doing any doctoring? She never seems off the media.
Maybe that's why she doesn't see any serious COVID cases, too busy doing telly interviews and by the time she has get to calling them into her office they have taken a turn for the worse and already been carted off in an ambulance.
I normally do a rib of beef. This year we are going for an organic rooster!
1. Shadsy moved there from Ladbrokes and creates a lot of interesting markets.
2. Betfair trashed their reputation with shenanigans over the settling of various markets in recent years - which means that bets there have to take into account the risk of Betfair interpreting the rules of their market in a non-obvious way.
3. Not much point in discussing the odds in non-exchange/spread-bet markets when the traditional bookies limit the stakes of moderately successful punters to derisory amounts.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50583&var=201&run=12&date=2021-12-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1
That really would be a proper dead cat.
Or it might just be dry and frosty.
‘Government’s Test and Trace service could run until 2025, consulting contracts suggest’
- One of four new deals worth up to £111m indicate foreign travel rules may also be in force for years
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/test-and-trace-2025-covid-b1974905.html?amp
5. Of places where anyone moderately succesful can still get on, Betfair is still the market leader. It's in punters long term interests to promote the alternatives - Smarkets offers a hell of a lot more political markets than Betdaq though.
Other South African doctors are of course free to tell us how overwhelmed or worried they are.
1. Shadsy is good. Very good.
2. New info for me. But I’m unsurprised.
3. Can’t stand those dishonest twats. Every single one either closed my account or limited me to preposterously small stakes when I won big. They need sorting out IMHO. At the moment it is a pure racket.
Their home page on current betting as a dashboard is good too.
God alone knows how many Covid variant panics we're going to have to go through before the authorities stop getting the jitters over them.
I always worry slightly people think been jabbed, couple of days, I have my invincibility shield.
Getting vaccinated reduces your risk of infection, of serious disease, of chronic illness and of distressing death. But it does not *remove* those risks.
Single is better than no vaccination, double is better than single, and triple better than double, but nothing is going to remove the risk completely.
Avoiding obesity, stopping smoking and alcohol, training, avoiding public transport and events, working from home etc etc etc. All help a little too. But we can never totally remove the risk. Not without a cure.
Yes, there's always the embarrassing uncle pontificating at the dinner table.
Actually, that sounds like me!
Good night all.
Why on Earth would she stake her entire reputation on this unless she was very confident? What has she possibly got to gain? She might still be wrong, but it seems ludicrous that she is being ignored!
(Edit: Times is paywalled, hence Mail I guess, apologies)
If the Chinese struggle to contain the variant, Western democracies won't stand a chance.
(Btw, Labour can make a fortune betting if they think they will come 2nd.)
Those who live by the sword… 😄
(And yes, I have had my booster, last week. Everyone should get it)
Better in my view to be cautious than not do enough.
Irrelevant minor party proven to still be irrelevant minor party.
Personal triumph for Boris!
Tories keep Boris.
Result!!
Starmer might have stopped chuckling by the time the sherry is poured.
Over the years I’ve got better at winter watering, but the fig only just scraped through last winter.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/17031393/pubs-restaurants-closed-entry-limits-omicron/
That Labour will try and scotch the LibDem campaign is why I’d steer clear of betting they’ll get below 5%. If Labour does fall that low, the LDs have won it.
Unless climate change makes air tickets prohibitively and absurdly pricey, of course
Mind you I do steal the little bottles for future emergency use I stayed in a pension in Seville this year that didn't supply shampoo etc.
Has been bobbling at a quite high 20-30% growth for a while but that is increasing by the day now:
WoW growth since 1/12
1/12 (1/12 Vs 24/11 data) +37%
2/12 +30%
3/12 +25%
4/12 +37%
5/12 +37%
6/12 +25%
7/12 +45%
8/12 +55%
9/12 at least 69% (data incomplete)
10/12 at least 91%
11/12 at least 88% (data rather more incomplete)
This isn't unique growth, although rare for such a large population sample in 2021. Be interesting to see how high it goes before it settles to a pure Omicron growth figure and then starts to ease down a little.
* numbers based on the 9 boroughs in zone 1 rather than Inner London.
But the swimming! God I love it! That’s the one big thing I’d miss if I move home to Scotland.
Breaking, from press conference in Oslo:
Norway is to enforce a total ban on the sale of alcohol in pubs, bars and restaurants for at least the next 4 weeks.
They're banning alcohol in pubs and bars, but allowing them to stay open?
Why exactly?
(Admittedly, we do have a bit of a microclimate thing going on in our garden, due to a wee wooded hill giving us shelter.)
If the Tories win by less than 5% over the LDs and that leaflet gets Labour 15% not 10% they will know who to thank
1/3 of Tory MPs will vote against vaxports tomorrow, around 2/3 of Tory MPs would vote against another lockdown. Boosters are the way out of Omicron not locking down again