"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
IANAE in that area but I am pretty sure that last paragraph is the law already. Section 32(5) of the UK Borders Act 2007 mandates that, unless certain circumstances apply, the Home Secretary must make a deportation order against a ‘foreign criminal’ who has been sentenced to 12 months or more.
IANAL, but isn’t the issue the over-riding “right to a family life”, which has been interpreted over time in ways that make it practically impossible to actually deport anyone who has lived in the country for more than a couple of years?
Not really. The right to family life claims are often made but very rarely succeed. They are not an overriding concern in most cases (a child in need of urgent medical help of a kind that is not available in the country they are being returned to might be an example) but simply something that the court has to take into account.
A bigger problem in practice is that there are a lot of places who are either not willing to have them back or which we deem not safe to return to. Forced expulsions are rare but ex prisoners are much more likely than most to end up on that plane.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
I personally believe that the Lib Dems are going to win NS and that it won't be that close but its nice to see Labour giving the government a helping hand.
NS has come at a bad time for the government with the hysteria about various things bubbling up and Boris's standing collapsing. They face a lot of irritation from their natural supporters for doing too much in response to Omicron and a lot of criticism from most for not doing even more. Plus its a by election, a free hit to tell the government that we are not happy with our lot and the Lib Dems are good at pointless gestures. If we are really lucky we might get a rerun of Ed Davey playing with his lego bricks.
Good morning
Listening to the media yesterday, and this morning 5 live business, I really fear we are in the biggest peacetime crisis for a generation so much so that I expect the tsunami of problems hurtling down the line for governments across the world will engulf them to the point that governments of national unity, as in wartime, will be needed to even start to address the extreme crisis hitting all health services including huge increases in mental health and the energy and economic demands which are so serious that partisan political solutions will not even start to address them
The only problem is just how we get a government of national unity before the next GE
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
IANAE in that area but I am pretty sure that last paragraph is the law already. Section 32(5) of the UK Borders Act 2007 mandates that, unless certain circumstances apply, the Home Secretary must make a deportation order against a ‘foreign criminal’ who has been sentenced to 12 months or more.
IANAL, but isn’t the issue the over-riding “right to a family life”, which has been interpreted over time in ways that make it practically impossible to actually deport anyone who has lived in the country for more than a couple of years?
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
That’s proper lockdown. Gosh. Who could have predicted THAT??
I did. Hateful as the idea is, you take the body language that's been visible on people like Javid, and the stats that are building, and then read the words they are all using to prep us for this - Tsunami, Tidal Wave - and the lockdown scenario has always been visible to the eye as a lower percentage likelihood.
We have to hope that a late surge of booster jabs beats off a late surge of Omicron. It is a race.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
The Telegraph: “It came as health chiefs estimated that current daily omicron infections have reached around 200,000 a day in the UK, although just 4,713 have been confirmed.”
This is as bad as Diane Abbot’s maths on policemen pay. And it’s not coming from a cuddly commie but a former Chancellor.
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
The five year tractor production figures are fantastic, comrade.
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Creates the perception of scarcity, and great demand. Why are “you” missing out? Everyone is doing it.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
That’s proper lockdown. Gosh. Who could have predicted THAT??
I did. Hateful as the idea is, you take the body language that's been visible on people like Javid, and the stats that are building, and then read the words they are all using to prep us for this - Tsunami, Tidal Wave - and the lockdown scenario has always been visible to the eye as a lower percentage likelihood.
We have to hope that a late surge of booster jabs beats off a late surge of Omicron. It is a race.
Javid and his 200,000 omicron infections a day horseshit
The Telegraph: “It came as health chiefs estimated that current daily omicron infections have reached around 200,000 a day in the UK, although just 4,713 have been confirmed.”
This is as bad as Diane Abbot’s maths on policemen pay. And it’s not coming from a cuddly commie but a former Chancellor.
If, as they claim, a million people a day end up getting it, then it will be all over in a couple of months as everyone is infected. Add a bit of exponential growth, and it could be a handful of weeks.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Fuck knows the system seems down to book most of the time
Got my booster yesterday here in Spain - Moderna added to my previous AZ x2. Pretty chuffed as minimal side effects except a very slight soreness in the arm this morning. Anywhere ready to face the world here a little more securely once the antibodies start waking up as well!
I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that AZ-AZ-Moderna offers excellent protection.
The bad news is that the Moderna "after effects" typically start at 24 hours. Be prepared to be wiped out.
The research online suggest some may experience side effects after 12 hours - typically muscle pain and tiredness. I'm now 13 hours in and so far I can only report the mildest twinges. I'm 67 and tbf tiredness, general aches and pains, not to mmention chronic hypochondria, are pretty much everyday things at my age and I wonder if this is why most of my contemporaries report little noticeable effects from boosters. Also I had zero side effects of note from my AZ shots earlier in the year.
The first MRNA shot is fine. The second wipes you out. The third is a doozy.
I was AZ-AZ-PFE and got hit at 20 hours. But nothing a 2 hour nap mid afternoon couldn’t fix
I'm AZ-AZ-Pf too and had the booster Sunday afternoon. No side effects except some tenderness at the injection site. I will go for a run this evening and see if that uncovers any significant fatigue.
I’ve been running at an 18 hour day for the last 22 months which may have contributed to the fatigue…
BBC today programme piece from North Shropshire this morning. They usually give a good sense of the local atmosphere. I must say from listening to the vox pops there was no suggestion of a Lib Dem surge or anger with the conservatives. The majority of people interviewed were happy sticking with the Tories. No mention of Paterson and corruption and only a passing reference to partygate.
Either it was a propaganda piece requested at gunpoint by Nadine Dorries, or we’re looking at a comfortable Tory victory on Thursday.
Mornin' all! I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)? There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
The Telegraph: “It came as health chiefs estimated that current daily omicron infections have reached around 200,000 a day in the UK, although just 4,713 have been confirmed.”
This is as bad as Diane Abbot’s maths on policemen pay. And it’s not coming from a cuddly commie but a former Chancellor.
If, as they claim, a million people a day end up getting it, then it will be all over in a couple of months as everyone is infected. Add a bit of exponential growth, and it could be a handful of weeks.
Zahawi was talking about 4 million cases a day at the weekend.
The Telegraph: “It came as health chiefs estimated that current daily omicron infections have reached around 200,000 a day in the UK, although just 4,713 have been confirmed.”
This is as bad as Diane Abbot’s maths on policemen pay. And it’s not coming from a cuddly commie but a former Chancellor.
If, as they claim, a million people a day end up getting it, then it will be all over in a couple of months as everyone is infected. Add a bit of exponential growth, and it could be a handful of weeks.
Zahawi was talking about 4 million cases a day at the weekend.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
What if the average length of stay is much reduced (5 days in SA), as is complexity of treatment required? For example only 10-15% of hospital cases in SA are on oxygen as opposed to nearly all in previous waves.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
It is the much bigger picture of the way we navigate our way through the crisis in the NHS and in particular the backlog and the huge increase in mental health, but also the frightening increase in the cost of living underpinned by the world wide increase in energy prices that is threatening to engulf the worlds economies
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
What if the average length of stay is much reduced (5 days in SA), as is complexity of treatment required? For example only 10-15% of hospital cases in SA are on oxygen as opposed to nearly all in previous waves.
Another thing to remember is that a large proportion of those in hospital in SA with Covid were not admitted for Covid and are not being treated for it. They just happen to have it.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
North Lab 49% Con 29% Midlands L 47% C 33% South C 43% L 35% London L 48% C 27%
England L 43% C 35% Scotland SNP 53% C 20% L 13% Wales L 54% PC 21% C 21%
Women L 42% C 30% Men L 37% C 33%
UK L 39% C 32% LD 9% SNP 5% Grn 5% Ref 4%
(On behalf of ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Survation interviewed 1,218 adults online aged 18+ living in the UK between 10th and 11th December 2021.)
Women v pissed off with the cad-in-chief I see.
Yes. This is crucial to the next UK GE. Is there going to be differential turnout between men and women? The weighting in this Survation poll assumes that men are more likely to actually cast their vote. I just wonder. If Boris carries on in the same patterns of behaviour, it is very likely that women will be so dissatisfied that their desire to vote will exceed mens’.
I personally believe that the Lib Dems are going to win NS and that it won't be that close but its nice to see Labour giving the government a helping hand.
NS has come at a bad time for the government with the hysteria about various things bubbling up and Boris's standing collapsing. They face a lot of irritation from their natural supporters for doing too much in response to Omicron and a lot of criticism from most for not doing even more. Plus its a by election, a free hit to tell the government that we are not happy with our lot and the Lib Dems are good at pointless gestures. If we are really lucky we might get a rerun of Ed Davey playing with his lego bricks.
If we take NS he would be well deserved to get out the blue lego bricks. A pretty simple message to Tory MPs...
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
What if the average length of stay is much reduced (5 days in SA), as is complexity of treatment required? For example only 10-15% of hospital cases in SA are on oxygen as opposed to nearly all in previous waves.
I need to double check but I thought most stays were already less than 5 days.
It's still x beds times 5 days though - all of which require staff and all of which are blocking other patients from having their operations.
To end on a cheery note, one of the guys I did ayahuasca with today - extremely smart, well connected, very senior, I’ll say no more than that - predicted the “end of human civilisation as we know it, within the next 7-10 years”
It all added to the gaiety
Nighty night from the Jaguar Realms
That’s no fun unless he predicts how!
When do we get to hear about what crazy things you saw
Stoned bloke speaks bollocks, what a surprise!
Is there anything more dull than hearing other people's accounts of drugs
I am intrigued by the DMT hallucinations he had, given they’re a twisted manifestation of your sub conscience. ...
1) Great typo 2) How, in this case, could we tell the difference ?
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Because they hope that people will think we only really got started yesterday after good old Boris ran scared of the Speaker did his fine broadcast.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
Hasn't the lady herself citizenship rights in one or two other countries? Although as mother of a young (?sub-teenage) child born in UK she'd probably be given the right to stay by the courts. At the moment!
Got my booster yesterday here in Spain - Moderna added to my previous AZ x2. Pretty chuffed as minimal side effects except a very slight soreness in the arm this morning. Anywhere ready to face the world here a little more securely once the antibodies start waking up as well!
I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that AZ-AZ-Moderna offers excellent protection.
The bad news is that the Moderna "after effects" typically start at 24 hours. Be prepared to be wiped out.
The research online suggest some may experience side effects after 12 hours - typically muscle pain and tiredness. I'm now 13 hours in and so far I can only report the mildest twinges. I'm 67 and tbf tiredness, general aches and pains, not to mmention chronic hypochondria, are pretty much everyday things at my age and I wonder if this is why most of my contemporaries report little noticeable effects from boosters. Also I had zero side effects of note from my AZ shots earlier in the year.
The first MRNA shot is fine. The second wipes you out. The third is a doozy.
I was AZ-AZ-PFE and got hit at 20 hours. But nothing a 2 hour nap mid afternoon couldn’t fix
It's great that you didn't have to change your routine at all
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
IANAE in that area but I am pretty sure that last paragraph is the law already. Section 32(5) of the UK Borders Act 2007 mandates that, unless certain circumstances apply, the Home Secretary must make a deportation order against a ‘foreign criminal’ who has been sentenced to 12 months or more.
IANAL, but isn’t the issue the over-riding “right to a family life”, which has been interpreted over time in ways that make it practically impossible to actually deport anyone who has lived in the country for more than a couple of years?
Not really. The right to family life claims are often made but very rarely succeed. They are not an overriding concern in most cases (a child in need of urgent medical help of a kind that is not available in the country they are being returned to might be an example) but simply something that the court has to take into account.
A bigger problem in practice is that there are a lot of places who are either not willing to have them back or which we deem not safe to return to. Forced expulsions are rare but ex prisoners are much more likely than most to end up on that plane.
The government, and those to whom they seek to appeal, aren't interested in the detail as much as the headlines. As made clear by Raab's comments.
Mornin' all! I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)? There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
This morning's 5 live business was quite stark and it highlighted Ghana which has only 10% of its population vaccinated and that the economic risks from the many poorly vaccinated countries is very concerning
I do think we tend to only view this crisis through our own UK perspective, and not realise there is a much bigger picture at play here
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
What if the average length of stay is much reduced (5 days in SA), as is complexity of treatment required? For example only 10-15% of hospital cases in SA are on oxygen as opposed to nearly all in previous waves.
Another thing to remember is that a large proportion of those in hospital in SA with Covid were not admitted for Covid and are not being treated for it. They just happen to have it.
We are still being told that one person in the UK has died "with" Omicron.
They may be all over the place with the 200k but the media know enough not to use the word "of" unless it has been confirmed.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I would expect the civil service to have drawn up plans. Just in case and all that. Clearly Whitehall has been spooked yet again by modelling.
But the plans will only happen if ministers decide to do them.
Let's hope the threat of the 1922 and letters stays the hand.
Sure. If Omicron is as bad as they are increasingly saying I'm not sure that lockdown would achieve anything substantial.
The reality is this - we will have *shutdown*, not lockdown. If cases are as crazy as they are modelling then nobody will be going out to party because x number of people in their group will have it and the others forced to self-isolate.
We are already seeing the edges of this in practice. Businesses with labour issues caused by the Covid surge. I've personally had to bin off two big nights out two weekends on the bounce due to Covid and I'm hearing others also having to cancel as Covid bites.
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
What if the average length of stay is much reduced (5 days in SA), as is complexity of treatment required? For example only 10-15% of hospital cases in SA are on oxygen as opposed to nearly all in previous waves.
Another thing to remember is that a large proportion of those in hospital in SA with Covid were not admitted for Covid and are not being treated for it. They just happen to have it.
Which can be spun two ways of course.
That “real” covid hospitalisations still have a high need for oxygen.
Or, that despite the crashing tsunami of mutant covid, it’s not making many people very sick.
Norway data is a bit early to draw conclusions from, the moment of pause is if the vaccines confer an order of magnitude worse protection from serious disease than catching delta. But it’s not worth getting too excited about that yet.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
It is the much bigger picture of the way we navigate our way through the crisis in the NHS and in particular the backlog and the huge increase in mental health, but also the frightening increase in the cost of living underpinned by the world wide increase in energy prices that is threatening to engulf the worlds economies
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
The number of people who have it is increasing by a factor of "3 or 5" every 5 days. I could have sworn people "got" the point of exponential growth as much as 18 months ago.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
A GNU is an interesting proposition, and I can see how a national emergency would propel parties together. Two issues though: 1. If that was going to happen due to Covid surely it would have been last year 2. Johnson is Chamberlain, not Churchill. Nobody will work with him crisis or not 3. The government doesn't think there is a crisis. Covid is something they manage great! Brexit a massive success as we're about to see when we finally start to implement border controls in January...
I personally believe that the Lib Dems are going to win NS and that it won't be that close but its nice to see Labour giving the government a helping hand.
NS has come at a bad time for the government with the hysteria about various things bubbling up and Boris's standing collapsing. They face a lot of irritation from their natural supporters for doing too much in response to Omicron and a lot of criticism from most for not doing even more. Plus its a by election, a free hit to tell the government that we are not happy with our lot and the Lib Dems are good at pointless gestures. If we are really lucky we might get a rerun of Ed Davey playing with his lego bricks.
If we take NS he would be well deserved to get out the blue lego bricks. A pretty simple message to Tory MPs...
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
The number of people who have it is increasing by a factor of "3 or 5" every 5 days. I could have sworn people "got" the point of exponential growth as much as 18 months ago.
Pray tell, how many days of exponential growth will it take for every molecule in the observable universe to be an Omicron virus? I’m sure we all understand exponential growth. Some of us also understand there is also a natural decay to that growth rate.
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Because they hope that people will think we only really got started yesterday after good old Boris ran scared of the Speaker did his fine broadcast.
Agree that LDs are too tight in the betting. Tories are in with a decent chance; also I think Labour will get more than 10% of the vote, so in this case I am inclined to differ from Mr Smithson.
I don't think there is yet a convincing account of why all the non politics followers in NS will switch is sufficient numbers to LD, rather than either switch to or stick with Labour.
My confidence levels in all predictions about NS are low, and we shall be unusually better informed about the state of play when we have the result. I have a toe in the water for a Tory win.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
For example a Brit married to a Ukranian national could be deemed eligible for a Ukranian passport and refused entry to the UK.
People are voting for the Face Eating Leopards Party again.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
It is the much bigger picture of the way we navigate our way through the crisis in the NHS and in particular the backlog and the huge increase in mental health, but also the frightening increase in the cost of living underpinned by the world wide increase in energy prices that is threatening to engulf the worlds economies
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why surprised? The party is opposed to vaxports on principle, and is robustly opposing them in Scotland. Would be really strange to have the Westminster group vote them through.
I said the other day that Labour should vote against as well. Not because they agree with the "no restrictions, liberty forever" crowd, but because the proposal is the usual half-baked hodgepodge. And likely already out of date given the speed that things are evolving.
Can't remember but (mild rant) it beggars belief that computers cannot handle spaces in NHS numbers, phone numbers, credit card numbers and so on. Older PBers might remember me defending Priti Patel stumbling over large numbers which were probably printed without proper formatting in her script.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
To be fair, that used to be the law! (Under the 39 Articles) so he would just be reaching into the past for inspiration
This news isn't consistent with the driving narrative of impending socio-economic collapse (something like a zombie apocalypse, only not so much fun,) so of course nobody is interested in hearing it.
I don't know if I've simply exhausted my reserves of doom energy over the weekend, but I'm feeling relaxed about the Omicronpanic this morning. Besides anything else, if it's as stupendously infectious as is claimed then it'll go through the whole population like crap through a goose in a few weeks, after which we'll finally be at herd immunity and the epidemic will be essentially done with. And yes, I know, hospitals on fire and corpses everywhere, but if it's unstoppable then que sera sera.
I think you just get to the point where you can either keep fretting (and go mad, or possibly die of a stress-induced coronary,) or just let the whole effing thing wash over you. Enough. I don't care anymore.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
A GNU is an interesting proposition, and I can see how a national emergency would propel parties together. Two issues though: 1. If that was going to happen due to Covid surely it would have been last year 2. Johnson is Chamberlain, not Churchill. Nobody will work with him crisis or not 3. The government doesn't think there is a crisis. Covid is something they manage great! Brexit a massive success as we're about to see when we finally start to implement border controls in January...
Among fans of Sir Terry Pratchett's Discworld, a GNU is message of comfort for those who have departed this life, since the code causes their name to be repeated indefinitely throughout the system, because: “A person is not dead while their name is still spoken.”
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Because they hope that people will think we only really got started yesterday after good old Boris ran scared of the Speaker did his fine broadcast.
His broadcast worked to be fair
It did and it needs to work. I said I supported the strategy straight afterwards even if it turns out to be practically impossible to achieve. As usual they have screwed up the implementation - no comms through the NHS system that this was happening, a misspeak by the PM (in his script!!!) about getting everyone done this month. But they have to try, its the only barrier we have left.
I personally believe that the Lib Dems are going to win NS and that it won't be that close but its nice to see Labour giving the government a helping hand.
NS has come at a bad time for the government with the hysteria about various things bubbling up and Boris's standing collapsing. They face a lot of irritation from their natural supporters for doing too much in response to Omicron and a lot of criticism from most for not doing even more. Plus its a by election, a free hit to tell the government that we are not happy with our lot and the Lib Dems are good at pointless gestures. If we are really lucky we might get a rerun of Ed Davey playing with his lego bricks.
Good morning
Listening to the media yesterday, and this morning 5 live business, I really fear we are in the biggest peacetime crisis for a generation so much so that I expect the tsunami of problems hurtling down the line for governments across the world will engulf them to the point that governments of national unity, as in wartime, will be needed to even start to address the extreme crisis hitting all health services including huge increases in mental health and the energy and economic demands which are so serious that partisan political solutions will not even start to address them
The only problem is just how we get a government of national unity before the next GE
And sorry for being so downbeat
The anti hard Brexit majority in the HoC failed entirely to unite in the simplest ways to achieve that sort of unity over one big issue. I don't think that will change.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
It is the much bigger picture of the way we navigate our way through the crisis in the NHS and in particular the backlog and the huge increase in mental health, but also the frightening increase in the cost of living underpinned by the world wide increase in energy prices that is threatening to engulf the worlds economies
However I am not sure how one is formed
Quite hyperbolic language there G.
Not really
“ the frightening increase in the cost of living underpinned by the world wide increase in energy prices that is threatening to engulf the worlds economies”.
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Because they hope that people will think we only really got started yesterday after good old Boris ran scared of the Speaker did his fine broadcast.
The speaker was out of order in this case.
A public health message like that needs to be delivered direct to the people. It was right to make it on prime time TV and follow up with a parliamentary statement
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
Got my booster yesterday here in Spain - Moderna added to my previous AZ x2. Pretty chuffed as minimal side effects except a very slight soreness in the arm this morning. Anywhere ready to face the world here a little more securely once the antibodies start waking up as well!
I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that AZ-AZ-Moderna offers excellent protection.
The bad news is that the Moderna "after effects" typically start at 24 hours. Be prepared to be wiped out.
The research online suggest some may experience side effects after 12 hours - typically muscle pain and tiredness. I'm now 13 hours in and so far I can only report the mildest twinges. I'm 67 and tbf tiredness, general aches and pains, not to mmention chronic hypochondria, are pretty much everyday things at my age and I wonder if this is why most of my contemporaries report little noticeable effects from boosters. Also I had zero side effects of note from my AZ shots earlier in the year.
The first MRNA shot is fine. The second wipes you out. The third is a doozy.
I was AZ-AZ-PFE and got hit at 20 hours. But nothing a 2 hour nap mid afternoon couldn’t fix
It's great that you didn't have to change your routine at all
Employment rate - both absolute and percentage - would be much more interesting.
Have we lost workers as part of the “Great Resignation”?
"The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than before the coronavirus pandemic (December 2019 to February 2020), but 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter (May to July)."
So, yes it seems that the Great Resignation is indeed a thing.
This third dose is has wiped us both out. Can barely raise myself out of bed.
It wasn't the clubbing until dawn ?
Hope you're better soon. I was lucky with no apparent reaction to the booster, while the first AZN dose floored me for a day. What to expect seems pretty random.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
To be fair, that used to be the law! (Under the 39 Articles) so he would just be reaching into the past for inspiration
IIRC there wasn't anything about 'hating Scotland' was there? Might have been something about Scots, of course!
I'm pretty sure most of the scares about Omicron are deliberate to encourage everyone to vax up. Simples... And makes sense.
That would actually be intelligent government comms. I’d like to think so, but fear not.
We really need to get as quickly as possible to the point where the épi curve starts to level off. Then all the models start to look much less scary because the infinite exponential rises disappear.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
The problem being that Priti Vacant wants to define "forrin national" as anyone she believes may be eligible to be a citizen somewhere else.
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
To be fair, that used to be the law! (Under the 39 Articles) so he would just be reaching into the past for inspiration
It would rule out half the Cabinet, including the PM, of course.
This third dose is has wiped us both out. Can barely raise myself out of bed.
It wasn't the clubbing until dawn ?
Hope you're better soon. I was lucky with no apparent reaction to the booster, while the first AZN dose floored me for a day. What to expect seems pretty random.
I suspect it's got a lot to do with whether your body currently has recently had a Covid infection or not - vaccination after a mild infection could explain why some people reacted so badly to a jab / booster.
It's why we shifted our boosters to January because tomorrow (when we were booked to get our boosters) is on the 4 week limit from when the Mrs was infected - waiting another 2 weeks just feels sensible.
I'm pretty sure most of the scares about Omicron are deliberate to encourage everyone to vax up. Simples... And makes sense.
That would actually be intelligent government comms. I’d like to think so, but fear not.
We really need to get as quickly as possible to the point where the épi curve starts to level off. Then all the models start to look much less scary because the infinite exponential rises disappear.
I whole heartedly disagree. Because more people than you assume can smell the bullshit. And it then casts into doubt everything they say.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Mornin' all! I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)? There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
"When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)?"
Call me an old-fashioned democrat but I think the convention is that the actual result does not get published until after the vote.
"The Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, urged the government to make sure that any reforms of the HRA were backed by evidence, not driven by political rhetoric."
A typical lawyer, he puts all his writings behind paywalls.
These comments are free.
But I can summarise for you if you want.
The first time I clicked on the Substack link, it said it was for subscribers only. The second time, it worked!
The HRA fundamentally changed the relationship between the Judiciary and Parliament, and many of the appointments to the Strasbourg court have been fundamentally political in nature.
Having left the EU, where membership of the ECHR was compulsory, it’s worth taking another look at that relationship, although there’s a fine line to tread in trying to rebalance the relationship in favour of Parliament.
A starting point should be, for example, that a foreign national sentenced to a year’s imprisonment should be assumed to be a candidate for deportation, except in very exceptional circumstances. People who wish to appeal their deportation, can do so from outside the UK and at their own expense.
IANAE in that area but I am pretty sure that last paragraph is the law already. Section 32(5) of the UK Borders Act 2007 mandates that, unless certain circumstances apply, the Home Secretary must make a deportation order against a ‘foreign criminal’ who has been sentenced to 12 months or more.
IANAL, but isn’t the issue the over-riding “right to a family life”, which has been interpreted over time in ways that make it practically impossible to actually deport anyone who has lived in the country for more than a couple of years?
Not really. The right to family life claims are often made but very rarely succeed. They are not an overriding concern in most cases (a child in need of urgent medical help of a kind that is not available in the country they are being returned to might be an example) but simply something that the court has to take into account.
A bigger problem in practice is that there are a lot of places who are either not willing to have them back or which we deem not safe to return to. Forced expulsions are rare but ex prisoners are much more likely than most to end up on that plane.
The government, and those to whom they seek to appeal, aren't interested in the detail as much as the headlines. As made clear by Raab's comments.
Isn't the entire purpose of this new proposed legislation to create more lost cases for the UK at the ECHR? They know the best chance they have of being re-elected is to keep anti-Europe feelings high, people are going to tire of blaming the EU for everything several years after leaving, so they need as many cases of the ECHR interfering with British justice as possible so they can run on "Take Back Control" again.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
I think it is more or less mandated by its charter, same as the morning service on Radio 4 on Sundays.
A little bit of Calvanist fire and brimstone would be fun, sadly we are only allowed the anodyne now.
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
That’s proper lockdown. Gosh. Who could have predicted THAT??
A re-post for Sean, in case you missed it earlier this evening:
Breaking, from press conference in Oslo:
Norway is to enforce a total ban on the sale of alcohol in pubs, bars and restaurants for at least the next 4 weeks.
Wait. They're banning alcohol in pubs and bars, but allowing them to stay open? Why exactly?
Sorry, I thought it was obvious.
Intoxicated people lose their inhibitions (case study: Sean). Lost inhibition means not respecting social distancing, or worse (snogging, sex).
Sober people are safer people.
I know. But why would you go to a bar without alcohol? Is this just a way to avoid compensation by not having ordered them closed?
Jeepers creepers. Are you so deep in the arms of the marketing men that the possibility of a night out without intoxicating liquor is beyond your comprehension??
Meeting friends, eating, having a (soft) drink, laughing, socialising, living.
Life goes on without alcohol you know.
When you’re normally the designated driver, that’s a normal visit to the pub.
I personally believe that the Lib Dems are going to win NS and that it won't be that close but its nice to see Labour giving the government a helping hand.
NS has come at a bad time for the government with the hysteria about various things bubbling up and Boris's standing collapsing. They face a lot of irritation from their natural supporters for doing too much in response to Omicron and a lot of criticism from most for not doing even more. Plus its a by election, a free hit to tell the government that we are not happy with our lot and the Lib Dems are good at pointless gestures. If we are really lucky we might get a rerun of Ed Davey playing with his lego bricks.
Good morning
Listening to the media yesterday, and this morning 5 live business, I really fear we are in the biggest peacetime crisis for a generation so much so that I expect the tsunami of problems hurtling down the line for governments across the world will engulf them to the point that governments of national unity, as in wartime, will be needed to even start to address the extreme crisis hitting all health services including huge increases in mental health and the energy and economic demands which are so serious that partisan political solutions will not even start to address them
The only problem is just how we get a government of national unity before the next GE
And sorry for being so downbeat
I think you are watching too much mainstream media.
Why is the Twitter account of No 10 celebrating half a million booster doses being booked in one day, after all that publicity? Isn’t that the same number we’re been doing daily for a while, and well below par for the new target?
Because they hope that people will think we only really got started yesterday after good old Boris ran scared of the Speaker did his fine broadcast.
Johnson choosing a format where he avoided questions had the effect of affording Starmer a similar platform with equal time on TV at 7pm last night. It was almost as if Whitty et al were lurking off camera on either side in a No 10 presser with an alternative PM, wheeled out because no-one any longer takes notice of the real one. I think Starmer will be quite happy in political terms if it continues that way. The Tory Party less so.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
There are occasional ones I listen to. Most have me switching immediately to R5 at the first sound of their voice. Anne Atkins as soon as the first syllable of her name is announced.
I would guess it ticks some public service remit box.
The 200,000 Omicron cases per day claim is being discussed uncritically as fact on BBC Breakfast at the moment. Doesn't seem to have occurred to anybody that we now have an implied case rate (given most cases are still Delta) of a million a day, yet somehow only 50k cases are being picked up by test and the country isn't collapsing under the massive weight of illness.
Mornin' all! I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)? There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
"When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)?"
Call me an old-fashioned democrat but I think the convention is that the actual result does not get published until after the vote.
Quite. I meant, of course, when will the various vote totals be published by the Returning Officer? TBH I wouldn't normally expect a result until mid-day in such a spread-out, rural constituency.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
Panicking over something that appears to have a far lower fatality rate seems a peculiar approach.
Fatality rate is way less important than hospitalisation rate
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
The number of people who have it is increasing by a factor of "3 or 5" every 5 days. I could have sworn people "got" the point of exponential growth as much as 18 months ago.
Pray tell, how many days of exponential growth will it take for every molecule in the observable universe to be an Omicron virus? I’m sure we all understand exponential growth. Some of us also understand there is also a natural decay to that growth rate.
Yes - it will slow when the number of people who have acquired immunity is sufficient to stop it. As a percentage of the number of people who are susceptible to infection.
We need much more information of course, but on the basis of what we know now the potential for immune escape is such that at least half the population could be susceptible to infection. If so, halving the R number - say to R=2 - will require half of the susceptible population to be infected, which could be 15 million. At the present rate of growth that could take less than 3 weeks. That is compared with less than a million infections a week, which the NHS is already having big problems coping with. And even then it would still be doubling every 5 days instead of every 2.5.
Probably yet again most of the population will have the sense to change their behaviour, but anyone who thinks we can carry on just as we are and everything will be fine is a complete fool.
“The NHS was put on a crisis footing tonight as hospitals in England were told to discharge as many patients as possible while estimated daily Omicron cases hit 200,000 and the variant claimed its first life in the UK.”
WHITEHALL officials have drawn up plans to restrict numbers in pubs and restaurants and even close them down in the coming weeks. There are growing fears of further resections after Christmas as Omicron is expected to peak in January, with New Year parties in grave doubt.
Exactly what I have been fearing. @Anabobazina suggested yesterday I was getting a happy from all this - its the absolute opposite. This is awful.
I think it is time we all recognise this is now a crisis of immense gravity and that all parties need to work together to navigate our way through this
What is it about the hospitalisation numbers from Omicron that makes you think it worthy of a government of national unity?
The polling figures from the last couple of weeks perhaps. Boris could do with a GNU right now.
With the Tory rebellion homing in on 100, Big G is right that we now have a govt of national unity in all but name.
I am surprised that it is believed the lib dems will join the conservative rebels in the no lobby
Why? Sadly If being double jabbed doesn't stop you passing on COVID the vaccine certificate does nothing. In fact it will encourage transmission if used for access to events. Whereas a lateral flow test taken that day works.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Duh? What a silly post.
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital. 2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely. 3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?
Mornin' all! I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)? There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
"When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)?"
Call me an old-fashioned democrat but I think the convention is that the actual result does not get published until after the vote.
I heard Thought for the Day this morning for the first time in ages.
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Because the law requires a certain amount of religion in prime time
It's not religion. I could take that. There might be some interest in that. It's garbage.
Comments
A bigger problem in practice is that there are a lot of places who are either not willing to have them back or which we deem not safe to return to. Forced expulsions are rare but ex prisoners are much more likely than most to end up on that plane.
Listening to the media yesterday, and this morning 5 live business, I really fear we are in the biggest peacetime crisis for a generation so much so that I expect the tsunami of problems hurtling down the line for governments across the world will engulf them to the point that governments of national unity, as in wartime, will be needed to even start to address the extreme crisis hitting all health services including huge increases in mental health and the energy and economic demands which are so serious that partisan political solutions will not even start to address them
The only problem is just how we get a government of national unity before the next GE
And sorry for being so downbeat
But the plans will only happen if ministers decide to do them.
Let's hope the threat of the 1922 and letters stays the hand.
We have to hope that a late surge of booster jabs beats off a late surge of Omicron. It is a race.
The Telegraph:
“It came as health chiefs estimated that current daily omicron infections have reached around 200,000 a day in the UK, although just 4,713 have been confirmed.”
This is as bad as Diane Abbot’s maths on policemen pay. And it’s not coming from a cuddly commie but a former Chancellor.
Either it was a propaganda piece requested at gunpoint by Nadine Dorries, or we’re looking at a comfortable Tory victory on Thursday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59648583
I'm not as downbeat as Big G, and I see no prospect whatsoever of a GNU, but certainly something is needed to brighten lives. When do we expect the actual result from Shropshire N (apols if already published)?
There a a good chance that Friday morning could bring cheer to an otherwise somewhat worried and, as I say, downbeat OKC household, although I'm not, as an anti-Tory, too optimistic about the aforementioned by-election.
And the important bit is number of infected people times risk of hospitalisation.
If the risk of hospitalisation is halved but 3 or 5 times as many people have it, the NHS has a big problem.
However I am not sure how one is formed
They should get HYUFD to rewrite the HRA. Define "citizen" as someone who has always voted Conservative, hates Scotland and is a congregant of the Church of England. Anyone who fails these simple and humane tests doesn't get a vote.
It's still x beds times 5 days though - all of which require staff and all of which are blocking other patients from having their operations.
2) How, in this case, could we tell the difference ?
ran scared of the Speakerdid his fine broadcast.As made clear by Raab's comments.
I do think we tend to only view this crisis through our own UK perspective, and not realise there is a much bigger picture at play here
They may be all over the place with the 200k but the media know enough not to use the word "of" unless it has been confirmed.
The reality is this - we will have *shutdown*, not lockdown. If cases are as crazy as they are modelling then nobody will be going out to party because x number of people in their group will have it and the others forced to self-isolate.
We are already seeing the edges of this in practice. Businesses with labour issues caused by the Covid surge. I've personally had to bin off two big nights out two weekends on the bounce due to Covid and I'm hearing others also having to cancel as Covid bites.
That “real” covid hospitalisations still have a high need for oxygen.
Or, that despite the crashing tsunami of mutant covid, it’s not making many people very sick.
Norway data is a bit early to draw conclusions from, the moment of pause is if the vaccines confer an order of magnitude worse protection from serious disease than catching delta. But it’s not worth getting too excited about that yet.
1. If that was going to happen due to Covid surely it would have been last year
2. Johnson is Chamberlain, not Churchill. Nobody will work with him crisis or not
3. The government doesn't think there is a crisis. Covid is something they manage great! Brexit a massive success as we're about to see when we finally start to implement border controls in January...
~~
Our services aren't available right now
We're working to restore all services as soon as possible. Please check back soon.
0o0+4YQAAAABizXBxbjSeRpZpR6PhnFxzTE9OMjFFREdFMDExOQBkMWI4Yzk2Yi02YTlmLTQyMjUtODQ3Yi01YmFmOWM5Mjc1YTk=
~~
1480 in the queue...
1316....
Have we lost workers as part of the “Great Resignation”?
I don't think there is yet a convincing account of why all the non politics followers in NS will switch is sufficient numbers to LD, rather than either switch to or stick with Labour.
My confidence levels in all predictions about NS are low, and we shall be unusually better informed about the state of play when we have the result. I have a toe in the water for a Tory win.
The government plan seems pretty feeble: discharge patients and unload ambulances faster. If only we had thought of that!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/covid-nhs-in-crisis-mode-as-hospitals-told-to-discharge-patients-where-possible
485 777 3546
or 4857773546 ?
I hope that's not your actual NHS number...
People are voting for the Face Eating Leopards Party again.
A tripling of hospitalisation but quartering of time in there is a good thing.
I said the other day that Labour should vote against as well. Not because they agree with the "no restrictions, liberty forever" crowd, but because the proposal is the usual half-baked hodgepodge. And likely already out of date given the speed that things are evolving.
I don't know if I've simply exhausted my reserves of doom energy over the weekend, but I'm feeling relaxed about the Omicronpanic this morning. Besides anything else, if it's as stupendously infectious as is claimed then it'll go through the whole population like crap through a goose in a few weeks, after which we'll finally be at herd immunity and the epidemic will be essentially done with. And yes, I know, hospitals on fire and corpses everywhere, but if it's unstoppable then que sera sera.
I think you just get to the point where you can either keep fretting (and go mad, or possibly die of a stress-induced coronary,) or just let the whole effing thing wash over you. Enough. I don't care anymore.
Mmmkay.
A public health message like that needs to be delivered direct to the people. It was right to make it on prime time TV and follow up with a parliamentary statement
What a load of banal piffle and cliches. Not one interesting thought at all. Not even remotely. Utter twaddle. You'd get more sense if you picked words randomly out of a dictionary.
Why does Radio 4 persist with it?
Problem sorted.
So, yes it seems that the Great Resignation is indeed a thing.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/december2021
Hope you're better soon.
I was lucky with no apparent reaction to the booster, while the first AZN dose floored me for a day. What to expect seems pretty random.
We really need to get as quickly as possible to the point where the épi curve starts to level off. Then all the models start to look much less scary because the infinite exponential rises disappear.
It's why we shifted our boosters to January because tomorrow (when we were booked to get our boosters) is on the 4 week limit from when the Mrs was infected - waiting another 2 weeks just feels sensible.
Govt not moving fast enough with the change in events. Two weeks ago I would have supported the double vax certificate for access, but the facts have changed.
Call me an old-fashioned democrat but I think the convention is that the actual result does not get published until after the vote.
A little bit of Calvanist fire and brimstone would be fun, sadly we are only allowed the anodyne now.
Anne Atkins as soon as the first syllable of her name is announced.
I would guess it ticks some public service remit box.
Turnips.
We need much more information of course, but on the basis of what we know now the potential for immune escape is such that at least half the population could be susceptible to infection. If so, halving the R number - say to R=2 - will require half of the susceptible population to be infected, which could be 15 million. At the present rate of growth that could take less than 3 weeks. That is compared with less than a million infections a week, which the NHS is already having big problems coping with. And even then it would still be doubling every 5 days instead of every 2.5.
Probably yet again most of the population will have the sense to change their behaviour, but anyone who thinks we can carry on just as we are and everything will be fine is a complete fool.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/amp/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html
Good news breaking out all over
“The NHS was put on a crisis footing tonight as hospitals in England were told to discharge as many patients as possible while estimated daily Omicron cases hit 200,000 and the variant claimed its first life in the UK.”
1. Vaxports are mostly about encouraging vaccination. More vaccination = fewer severe cases in hospital.
2. Whilst vaccination doesn't guarantee you won't pass on covid it makes it less likely.
3. LFTs are not 100% reliable and I have yet ro be convince how anyone can 'prove' they have taken one, at the entrance to the event. Are the ticket staff going to watch them take it?