Senior Conservative MP Sir Geoffrey Clifton Brown (Treasurer of the 22) tells @faisalislam “If Lord Geidt feels he’s been misled he’s fully entitled to resign.” Then says if he does resign it’ll need to be investigated, potentially by a senior judge. #Newsnight https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1469076356893925376
Labour should vote *against* on the grounds that a decent case for the various measures actually has not been made.
(As opposed to anti-NPIs on principle, which is motivating some Tory votes).
How can they when Starmer uses Drakeford as his example of dealing with covid and his support for vaxports
Sadly, outside Wales, nobody cares what Drakeford does.
Starmer does and it is on record
I know you'd much rather that Johnson was a paragon virtue and honesty compared to Starmer but I'm afraid it ain't so Big_G.
Starmer may well duck and weave, and spin a bit, as most politicians do, but Johnson trashes the truth completely and seems to believe the normal rules of probity don't apply to him.
It's a different level of dishonesty altogether.
I agree with you but believe you me if Starmer plays politics with these restrictions which have huge public support he risks damaging his own credibility at a time of national crisis
Boris is persona non grata to me now and as I said earlier today I am politically homeless for the first time in 60 years
Do you support these restrictions?
Not vaxports for pubs and restaurants
Well they aren’t in this bill, so irrelevant to the question. Do you support Plan B?
We have been under it in Wales and I had no vote
I do not like restrictions and on balance no
So why should Keir?
Because he quotes Drakeford and Wales as his bench mark
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead by this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and one could say deservedly so
We can but hope.
Says it all, leftwingers on here are as desperate for the Tories to get rid of Boris as rightwingers were for Labour to get rid of Blair.
As they knew that once the charismatic leader and election winner was toppled the remaining pygmies could easily be ripped to pieces and so it proved
The notion of Boris Johnson as a titan and the whole of the rest of the Parliamentary Conservative Party as so many midgets prancing around his ankles really doesn't reflect well on the entire Tory family.
If Tory MPs are all pygmies then what does that make you and the rest of what's left of the rank and file membership? Mice? Ants? Bacteria?
This from Leon deserves framing. "The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him". I know you've been feasting on John Donne this evening but even at his most metaphysical he'd have baulked at that one!
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead by this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and one could say deservedly so
We can but hope.
Says it all, leftwingers on here are as desperate for the Tories to get rid of Boris as rightwingers were for Labour to get rid of Blair.
As they knew that once the charismatic leader and election winner was toppled the remaining pygmies could easily be ripped to pieces and so it proved
You are right that Johnson reaches parts other Conservatives can only dream of. However I also believe you underestimate the anger generated by Partygate
I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.
Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.
And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.
Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.
Maybe, but probably won't be as popular with the rank and file, he's also unlikely to run.
I'd have thought Steve Baker would be very popular with the rank and file ? I have a betslip on him anyway. He might want to stay as a backbencher though
I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.
Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.
And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.
Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.
Maybe, but probably won't be as popular with the rank and file, he's also unlikely to run.
I'd have thought Steve Baker would be very popular with the rank and file ? I have a betslip on him anyway. He might want to stay as a backbencher though
I don't think he's going to get backed.
He's going to lose his seat at the next election I reckon.
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead by this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and one could say deservedly so
We can but hope.
Says it all, leftwingers on here are as desperate for the Tories to get rid of Boris as rightwingers were for Labour to get rid of Blair.
As they knew that once the charismatic leader and election winner was toppled the remaining pygmies could easily be ripped to pieces and so it proved
Are you really suggesting your conservative colleagues are ............. (I will not repeat it)
I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.
Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.
And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.
Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.
Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs
I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.
A question for Conservative MPs and Conservative Party members who voted for Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election and are now worried about his honesty. What did you expect? https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1469077567835713545
This from Leon deserves framing. "The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him". I know you've been feasting on John Donne this evening but even at his most metaphysical he'd have baulked at that one!
It cannot be a week ago @Leon was telling us how Boris was going to wipe the floor with Labour at GE24.
REVEALED: Geronimo the alpaca NEVER had TB: Tests show slaughtered alpaca was wrongly put down https://trib.al/FlT55Sa
Well well. Hope she takes DEFRA to the cleaners.
I don't know how those ministry vets who dragged him away can live with themselves. The stress and fear that the animal was under must have been terrible. Also the less said about Useless Eustice the better.
Labour should vote *against* on the grounds that a decent case for the various measures actually has not been made.
(As opposed to anti-NPIs on principle, which is motivating some Tory votes).
How can they when Starmer uses Drakeford as his example of dealing with covid and his support for vaxports
Sadly, outside Wales, nobody cares what Drakeford does.
Starmer does and it is on record
I know you'd much rather that Johnson was a paragon virtue and honesty compared to Starmer but I'm afraid it ain't so Big_G.
Starmer may well duck and weave, and spin a bit, as most politicians do, but Johnson trashes the truth completely and seems to believe the normal rules of probity don't apply to him.
It's a different level of dishonesty altogether.
I agree with you but believe you me if Starmer plays politics with these restrictions which have huge public support he risks damaging his own credibility at a time of national crisis
Boris is persona non grata to me now and as I said earlier today I am politically homeless for the first time in 60 years
Do you support these restrictions?
Not vaxports for pubs and restaurants
Well they aren’t in this bill, so irrelevant to the question. Do you support Plan B?
We have been under it in Wales and I had no vote
I do not like restrictions and on balance no
So why should Keir?
Because he quotes Drakeford and Wales as his bench mark
Is Drakeford going to announce full Wales lockdown tomorrow?
If Sunak was a foot taller and three billion quid poorer then he'd be a great replacement for Bozza. But he is not
I cannot see anyone remotely as good at election winning, or anyone with the emotional reach that Boris has. He is a Tory Blair, and I can see why HYUFD is distressed
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead by this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and one could say deservedly so
We can but hope.
Says it all, leftwingers on here are as desperate for the Tories to get rid of Boris as rightwingers were for Labour to get rid of Blair.
As they knew that once the charismatic leader and election winner was toppled the remaining pygmies could easily be ripped to pieces and so it proved
Are you really suggesting your conservative colleagues are ............. (I will not repeat it)
That's even worse than "old woman" earlier today. Or just as bad, depending on one's views.
“He's on his way to the fires of Mount Doom if things don't improve dramatically.” Tory MP ahead of a torrid seven days for @BorisJohnsonhttps://on.ft.com/31DSKE2
Previous generations of Conservative Party MPs probably quoted TS Elliott, thing, something I can’t remember, rising up from a abyss and slouching to Bethlehem, that if he doesn’t put his house in order. They only aspect is alpha mail perhaps, they can’t get head round he is not the one wearing the trousers, because all of it, wallpaper, dogs rescue, parties in the the flat, it’s all because of that isn’t it? And girls are to be pretty, and good at organising dinner, and presenting their arse for a whack as they sit down. And all of that together is pretty much how it has been for too long now isn’t it?
A week is a long time in politics. Bloody hell
Alpha Mail - yet another moniker for Graham Brady?
The PM's press chief addressed staff and gave out awards at a Downing Street party last Christmas that is now under investigation, it is understood.
Jack Doyle, then deputy director of communications, gave a speech to 20-30 staff at the gathering on 18 December.
A source has told the BBC there were food, drinks and games at the event.
Downing Street said: "There is an ongoing review, and we won't be commenting further while that is the case".
This event is one of three government staff gatherings from last year now being investigated by the UK's top civil servant, Simon Case.
The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said Mr Doyle's presence at the event mattered because, as the current director of communications, he had been in charge of the strategy for the past eight days to say that no party had taken place.
I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.
Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.
And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.
Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.
Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs
I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.
I think he thinks of himself as one of the parties thinkers. Otherwise i've heard him called vain and rather dimmer than he seems to think himself.
A question for Conservative MPs and Conservative Party members who voted for Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership election and are now worried about his honesty. What did you expect? https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1469077567835713545
I was a party member and decided not to vote for either Boris or Hunt in the ballot
The stupid thing with the wallpaper story is why would anyone want to spend so much money redecorating a flat you don't even own? With a 30k allowance couldn't they just do one room a year?
It definitely feels if Boris goes that Carrie will have played a big part in it (and getting rid of Cummings)
People who cannot afford wallpaper shouldn't be having kids.
That's a bit of an old school tory attitude....
I'm a proper Tory, the only true Tory here.
No. You're a Remainer
Not only that but a Remainer republican who voted LD in 2019 and 2017, he is now as Tory as Ed Davey
Back in 2010-2015, to be as Tory as Ed Davey at that time was to be a Tory in my book. Then, as a creature outside, I looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again, and I found it impossible to say which was which.
Now, I'm starting to move on a bit re the LDs (if not slimeball Clegg himself).
Labour should vote *against* on the grounds that a decent case for the various measures actually has not been made.
(As opposed to anti-NPIs on principle, which is motivating some Tory votes).
How can they when Starmer uses Drakeford as his example of dealing with covid and his support for vaxports
Sadly, outside Wales, nobody cares what Drakeford does.
Starmer does and it is on record
I know you'd much rather that Johnson was a paragon virtue and honesty compared to Starmer but I'm afraid it ain't so Big_G.
Starmer may well duck and weave, and spin a bit, as most politicians do, but Johnson trashes the truth completely and seems to believe the normal rules of probity don't apply to him.
It's a different level of dishonesty altogether.
I agree with you but believe you me if Starmer plays politics with these restrictions which have huge public support he risks damaging his own credibility at a time of national crisis
Boris is persona non grata to me now and as I said earlier today I am politically homeless for the first time in 60 years
Do you support these restrictions?
Not vaxports for pubs and restaurants
Well they aren’t in this bill, so irrelevant to the question. Do you support Plan B?
We have been under it in Wales and I had no vote
I do not like restrictions and on balance no
So why should Keir?
Because he quotes Drakeford and Wales as his bench mark
Is Drakeford going to announce full Wales lockdown tomorrow?
He has requested it but it was rejected by Boris so he is on his own and no, it looks like he is not now
If Sunak was a foot taller and three billion quid poorer then he'd be a great replacement for Bozza. But he is not
I cannot see anyone remotely as good at election winning, or anyone with the emotional reach that Boris has. He is a Tory Blair, and I can see why HYUFD is distressed
Plus the poison of Margaret Thatcher's assassination dominated Tory Party politics for over a decade. The poison of the assassination of Boris would do the same, it would split the party apart and the wannabe assassins better beware what they hope for as Thatcher's assassins never wore the crown. Thatcherites saw to it that Heseltine and Ken Clarke never got near the throne themselves
I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.
Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.
And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.
Yeah I think a bet on a very dovish long shot is a good plan. I will consider a dabble.
The Survation demographic breakdown is interesting, with the usual caution about subsamples. A big gender gap: Tories ahead by 4 with men, behind by 15 with women. A regional differential: Labour now 30 ahead in the North and 11 in the Midlands, but no progress in Scotland, where they're still stuck on 18. The Tories still miles ahead with Leave voters, but now in 3rd place behind the LibDems in London.
Tomorrow's front page i is very interesting and not going to be pleasant viewing at No.10. It says that the contenders to replace Johnson are starting to circle. Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in particular.
It bemuses me when loyalists try to defend the indefensible. Johnson's position is rapidly becoming untenable. His serial lying, dishonesty and chaotic living is catching up with him.
John Major was nowhere near as bad a prime minister as Johnson, and the chaos nowhere near as acute, but all of this reminds me of the 1992-7 government.
The longer Johnson continues like this the more a repeat 1997 General Election result is likely.
What rubbish, Starmer can only get a 6% poll lead tonight. Even Ed Miliband and Kinnock managed 10%+ leads, Blair had 20%+ leads.
Plus unless polling comes out showing Sunak or Truss well ahead of Starmer, Boris will be going nowhere
Your problem is that Boris and his gang seem incapable of stopping making the same mistakes.
And likely don't even see the need to stop making those mistakes.
Starmer so rubbish he’s 6 points ahead and positive on approval
Perceptions of Starmer lag the movement in the polls.
Much of Starmer's substantially negative approval stemmed simply from a proportion of Labour supporters being aware of and dismayed that Labour was still behind in the polls over the Summer. If you can't get overwhelming approval from your own side, then once the other side is added in of course you're going to be in strong negative territory.
As the realisation grows that Labour is actually ahead, then Labour supporters will question the "Starmer is crap" narrative. I expect Starmer's approval rating to improve further even if Labour sustains only a modest poll lead.
There's also a point about Starmer facing an unusual amount of dissent from within his own party's support (as did Corbyn tbf, but he generally, but for a brief period post '17 election had catastrophic ratings) that artificially deflates ratings beyond what Labour might poll in an election compared to what we were used to pre-2015 when the default was that Labour's solid supporters was warm feelings towards leaders, dud or successful. In both post-Corbyn elections, Labour outperformed his catastrophic personal ratings because people who disliked him parked their misgivings (albeit far fewer in '19, although enough to get Lab out of a potential meltdown). Are people who are furious with Starmer for shunning Corbyn really going to vote against Labour when there's a chance of ousting a Tory Party they view as actively evil, outside of the odd pocket in inner cities where the Greens are active and capable of arguing a vote for them won't just elect another Tory?
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead by this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and one could say deservedly so
We can but hope.
Says it all, leftwingers on here are as desperate for the Tories to get rid of Boris as rightwingers were for Labour to get rid of Blair.
As they knew that once the charismatic leader and election winner was toppled the remaining pygmies could easily be ripped to pieces and so it proved
You are right that Johnson reaches parts other Conservatives can only dream of. However I also believe you underestimate the anger generated by Partygate
Thatcher was done for by the Poll Tax similarly but Major at least was able to draw a line under it and drop it, I cannot see any Tory alternative leader really being able to draw a line under Partygate unless they were in the Outer Hebrides throughout last December
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead by this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and one could say deservedly so
We can but hope.
Says it all, leftwingers on here are as desperate for the Tories to get rid of Boris as rightwingers were for Labour to get rid of Blair.
As they knew that once the charismatic leader and election winner was toppled the remaining pygmies could easily be ripped to pieces and so it proved
You display enormous confidence in the depth of talent on the Tory benches.
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead from this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and if it is one could say deservedly so
Major got 14 million votes in 92. Neither Thatcher or Johnson achieved that.
I've started building up small stakes on anti-lockdown Tories. One of them will make it through to the final two against a better established candidate IMO and once we get to a final two a slick MP like Mark Harper could actually win against someone dull like Javid.
Mark Harper is available at 50 on BF, I got on at 55.
And just to speak in his favour, state school educated at a comprehensive, went to Oxford under his own steam, became a chartered accountant, had a hugely successful career outside of politics in the tech industry.
Steve Baker is worth a punt on the same basis.
Not sure he's really considered as a serious figure with fellow MPs
I think he's seen more as one of the party's thinkers rather than a doer. I also don't think he's got significant backing to become leader, even on an interim basis for the rest of the pandemic.
I’ve always been impressed by Harper. He comes across well on telly and is an effective communicator. It’s an interesting wager for sure.
If Sunak was a foot taller and three billion quid poorer then he'd be a great replacement for Bozza. But he is not
I cannot see anyone remotely as good at election winning, or anyone with the emotional reach that Boris has. He is a Tory Blair, and I can see why HYUFD is distressed
Plus the poison of Margaret Thatcher's assassination dominated Tory Party politics for over a decade. The poison of the assassination of Boris would do the same, it would split the party apart and the wannabe assassins better beware what they hope for as Thatcher's assassins never wore the crown. Thatcherites saw to it that Heseltine and Ken Clarke never got near the throne themselves
Why didn't it happen when Mrs May was defenestrated by the 'pygmies' behind her?
If Sunak was a foot taller and three billion quid poorer then he'd be a great replacement for Bozza. But he is not
I cannot see anyone remotely as good at election winning, or anyone with the emotional reach that Boris has. He is a Tory Blair, and I can see why HYUFD is distressed
Plus the poison of Margaret Thatcher's assassination dominated Tory Party politics for over a decade. The poison of the assassination of Boris would do the same, it would split the party apart and the wannabe assassins better beware what they hope for as Thatcher's assassins never wore the crown. Thatcherites saw to it that Heseltine and Ken Clarke never got near the throne themselves
Why didn't it happen when Mrs May was defenestrated by the 'pygmies' behind her?
As Mrs May never won landslide election victories like Maggie and Boris
This from Leon deserves framing. "The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him". I know you've been feasting on John Donne this evening but even at his most metaphysical he'd have baulked at that one!
It cannot be a week ago @Leon was telling us how Boris was going to wipe the floor with Labour at GE24.
A week is a long time in Politics.
He's Fucked up, how badly I think it's too early to tell. You get the feeling it could be the beginning of the end for him but he's the type of character you can't ever rule out bouncing back.
Covid is the problem for him, it's not easy to reboot and relaunch the government with new policies and ideas that could shift the focus to turn his popularity and the government's popularity around when we are in this all consuming situation we are in.
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead from this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and if it is one could say deservedly so
Major got 14 million votes in 92. Neither Thatcher or Johnson achieved that.
4 point poll lead after all this? That is all Starmer has got?
The trend, my friend, the trend. Boris has fucked it all up. Very difficult to see how he charts a path back from here
The shame of it is he had the seeds of greatness in him. He is defeated by his own flaws - the laziness, the inability to obey rules, the willingness to let others do stupid things because he likes them. Also a total lack of strategic nous
He's a tactician. He's a superb electoral campaigner. The best the Tories have. Also their best communicator. I can see why you want to cling on to him. But at some point he begins to drag all the Tories down and that moment is very close
The trend? You would have thought Starmer would have a double digit poll lead from this without problem.
When ungrateful Tory MPs who owed their seats to Maggie removed her the Tory party lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections. If ungrateful Tory MPs who similarly owe their seats to Boris, our greatest election winner since Thatcher, remove him our party could be out of power for a generation and if it is one could say deservedly so
Major got 14 million votes in 92. Neither Thatcher or Johnson achieved that.
On a higher turnout, he got a lower voteshare
Precisely, more votes than Thatcher or Johnson. Aren't you the one who says only the number of Tory voters matter?
I wrote here a few months ago that I thought Johnson's best strategy was to leave with his head held high as soon as possible. He could argue that he had faced the biggest challenges since WW2 - a terminally broken Parliament, the withdrawal from the EU, and the Covid-19 pandemic - and won, while leaving the messy consequences of those victories to a more details-oriented successor of his choosing. Plus, with his reputation as a winner still mostly intact, he could still dominate the party as a kingmaker from the backbenches if he wanted, or even return as leader some day.
I think now those options have collapsed for him. Those messy consequences are piling up very quickly and are not longer deniable, so he's going to get the blame even if he resigns today; that's going to seriously damage his reputation in the long term, yet more than now. He can still probably rely on a lucrative contract with the Telegraph, but politically once he leaves Downing Street, he's finished. Yesterday's man.
So paradoxically this weakness means he's incentivised to cling on no matter what, instead of seriously looking at dignified exits. He will not resign and screw himself, he'll hold on and dare the MPs to try a VoNC - and I don't think the MPs have the balls to do that as things stand.
'No worst, there is none. Pitched past pitch of grief.' BY GERARD MANLEY HOPKINS
No worst, there is none. Pitched past pitch of grief, More pangs will, schooled at forepangs, wilder wring. Comforter, where, where is your comforting? Mary, mother of us, where is your relief? My cries heave, herds-long; huddle in a main, a chief Woe, wórld-sorrow; on an áge-old anvil wince and sing — Then lull, then leave off. Fury had shrieked 'No ling- ering! Let me be fell: force I must be brief."'
O the mind, mind has mountains; cliffs of fall Frightful, sheer, no-man-fathomed. Hold them cheap May who ne'er hung there. Nor does long our small Durance deal with that steep or deep. Here! creep, Wretch, under a comfort serves in a whirlwind: all Life death does end and each day dies with sleep.
Not so comforting.
Could I offer Lear
I eat my peas with honey I've done it all my life It makes the peas taste funny But it keeps them on the knife
Shakespeare was a versatile fellow.
Or a woman?
This is Shakespeare. Lucy Shakespeare I used to go camping with.
There was a lady called Alice Who used dynamite stick for a phallus, They found her vagina In North Carolina And her arsehole in Buckingham Palace.
I’m here all week (unless banned)
Another Alice one...cos I'm bored...
There was a young lady called Alice Who peed in the Catholic chalice. She said "I do this Out of great need to piss, And not from sectarian malice."
There was a young man from Khartoum Who took a lesbian up to his room But they argued all night As to who had the right To do what, and with which, and to whom
the reality cannot work like this even if still fluid person learning the way, but at least it scans proper more than some of the others
I know there have been plenty of approved drugs that have later proved to have very unfortunate side effects, but has that actually been the case with any vaccines?
I remember the whole MMR causing autism rubbish, but I can't think of any real vaccine scandals. I don't want to google it because I know I'll find mostly antivax bullshit.
I don't understand the whole antivax movement at all.
Vaccination, along with the discovery of penicillin, is probably the greatest advance in medical history. I'm sure a lot of anti vaxxers are mentally ill.
They're also indulged too much. If we do end up back in lockdown or something like it this Winter, it won't so much be the fault of the new variant as it will the reservoir of individuals who put the healthcare system in continuous jeopardy by their stubborn refusal to have a scratch on the arm every few months. If the hospitals scream that they're completely unable to cope with more Covid patients then you can be almost certain that most of them will be unvaccinated.
It's time to treat this pandemic how it should be treated: as a war in which the socio-economic survival of the nation is at stake. Vaccination should be thought of as analogous to conscription: mandatory and unavoidable, unless there is a sound medical reason why an individual should be excused it. Sound medical reasons do not include needle phobia, veganism, not trusting the Tories, or having read something scary that's been promulgated by some charlatan on WhatsApp.
Those who draft dodge should not continue to be tolerated and ought, if necessary, to have their lives made unbearable to force them to give in. If vaccination for pretty much everyone, save a handful of medical exemptions, is all that is going to get us out of an endless cycle of restrictions then that is what must happen, and it must happen as quickly as possible.
No
I say yes.
The government works for the people. It doesn’t have the authority
Comments
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1469076356893925376
What's made the recent shenanigans so enjoyable though is that they've been so self-inflicted.
Hope she takes DEFRA to the cleaners.
If Tory MPs are all pygmies then what does that make you and the rest of what's left of the rank and file membership? Mice? Ants? Bacteria?
I suspect this is correct. And that tomorrow will be D Day.
https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/1469076444512935942
https://twitter.com/obornetweets/status/1469075184518844423
I have a betslip on him anyway. He might want to stay as a backbencher though
Allie Hodgkins-Brown
@AllieHBNews
·
7m
Friday’s Scottish Daily MAIL: “Cancel Your Xmas Parties” #TomorrowsPapersToday
He's going to lose his seat at the next election I reckon.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1469077567835713545
I cannot see anyone remotely as good at election winning, or anyone with the emotional reach that Boris has. He is a Tory Blair, and I can see why HYUFD is distressed
The PM's press chief addressed staff and gave out awards at a Downing Street party last Christmas that is now under investigation, it is understood.
Jack Doyle, then deputy director of communications, gave a speech to 20-30 staff at the gathering on 18 December.
A source has told the BBC there were food, drinks and games at the event.
Downing Street said: "There is an ongoing review, and we won't be commenting further while that is the case".
This event is one of three government staff gatherings from last year now being investigated by the UK's top civil servant, Simon Case.
The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said Mr Doyle's presence at the event mattered because, as the current director of communications, he had been in charge of the strategy for the past eight days to say that no party had taken place.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59601447
He was an expert on the London Labour 'ground game'.
NEW THREAD
Now, I'm starting to move on a bit re the LDs (if not slimeball Clegg himself).
He did try
And likely don't even see the need to stop making those mistakes.
Tonbridge might be the Blue Wall seats to watch. There are 3 up.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/
Now South African data might not be the best but if Omicron is a serious threat there should be a big increase in deaths very soon.
He's Fucked up, how badly I think it's too early to tell. You get the feeling it could be the beginning of the end for him but he's the type of character you can't ever rule out bouncing back.
Covid is the problem for him, it's not easy to reboot and relaunch the government with new policies and ideas that could shift the focus to turn his popularity and the government's popularity around when we are in this all consuming situation we are in.
I think now those options have collapsed for him. Those messy consequences are piling up very quickly and are not longer deniable, so he's going to get the blame even if he resigns today; that's going to seriously damage his reputation in the long term, yet more than now. He can still probably rely on a lucrative contract with the Telegraph, but politically once he leaves Downing Street, he's finished. Yesterday's man.
So paradoxically this weakness means he's incentivised to cling on no matter what, instead of seriously looking at dignified exits. He will not resign and screw himself, he'll hold on and dare the MPs to try a VoNC - and I don't think the MPs have the balls to do that as things stand.