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LAB takes a 6% lead with Survation – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    The Conservative numbers there are absolutely horrific for the government.
    Yeah, that 60% figure is astonishing.
    Do you know if that is current VI or 2019 voters? If it's the former then it's curtains for Boris.
    That is the 2019 VI split.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
    The trend is our friend.
    But I agree with you on Tory bedwetters. They're certainly not welcome in my house. Disgusting.
    What kind of bedwetters (not family or resident) do you welcome? As overnight guests that is!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Phone lines being installed?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    moonshine said:

    Situation in the UK is ok at the moment. Bloody antivaxxers though.....70% of cases.

    Tim Spector
    https://youtu.be/CsOG-6CfRgk

    That kind of data should be being shouted from the rooftops. Considering the percentage who are vaccinated, that’s shocking.
    It really is time to get tough. I’m liking the unvaxxed tax idea. Don’t want to pay? Get the jab!
    Pah! You cannot monetise this; too many of the unvaxxed are, I suspect, supported by the state.

    Freedom, or rather loss of it, is the message they will bend to.

    Not vaccinated? Fine but don't expect to: go to the pub, cinema, night-clubs, eat out, travel on public transport, go into any public buildings including shops.

    Just extend the rules for smoking to the unvaccinated. Simple.
    My “favourite” anti-vaxxer is a senior judge.
    I daren’t say any more in case I inadvertently identify him/her.
    20 questions…

    Question 1) Is said judge fond of spider themed jewellery?
    Said judge is still practicing (or whatever the appropriate verb is, ?sitting).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,317

    Police Scotland priorities:

    I have today been interviewed by a Detective Inspector of the Serious Crimes Division (sic) over who leaked to Kenny Macaskill MP the text message from Peter Murrell to his Deputy Sue Ruddick, instructing her to pressurise police to act against Alex Salmond.

    https://twitter.com/craigmurrayorg/status/1468953097745489925?s=21

    They are desperate to keep the lid on the smoking volcano. Will the magpie ever be seen again.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    And currently firing both barrels...
    How much you got on Napoli this evening foxy?
    A tenner to top the group...
    You are a bad man betting against your own clubs and parties. If you end up getting duffed up don’t come to us for a croggy to the hospital. 😠
  • Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Did I miss something? Would tend to echo Benpointer's sediment!
  • MaxPB said:

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    The Conservative numbers there are absolutely horrific for the government.
    Yeah, that 60% figure is astonishing.
    Not actually that surprising though. I think this is an Emperor's New Clothes moment. Once there is a breakthrough in people's understanding of just how poor a PM, and how poor a human being in many ways, Johnson is you cannot unthink that. I see no way back for Johnson in this. Even if he has successes going forward people will still be saying that he might have got some stuff right but fundamentally he is not fit to be PM.

    At least, as ever, that is what I hope.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited December 2021

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Did I miss something? Would tend to echo Benpointer's sediment!
    I try to decant myself off my sediment but thanks anyway!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited December 2021
    Betting post. Really big move in the 'Johnson still PM at 2022 Tory Party Conf' market on betfair. This morning it was 1.5, it is now 1.85. I opined this morning in quite jaunty fashion that the 1.5 was 'value'. And I followed through on that piece of punditry with a modest sized bet. A period of silence from me on Johnson exit markets is, I think, warranted. (looking down at shoes emoticon).
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747
    malcolmg said:

    Police Scotland priorities:

    I have today been interviewed by a Detective Inspector of the Serious Crimes Division (sic) over who leaked to Kenny Macaskill MP the text message from Peter Murrell to his Deputy Sue Ruddick, instructing her to pressurise police to act against Alex Salmond.

    https://twitter.com/craigmurrayorg/status/1468953097745489925?s=21

    They are desperate to keep the lid on the smoking volcano. Will the magpie ever be seen again.
    Interesting thread:

    Craig Murray -
    @CraigMurrayOrg
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @CraigMurrayOrg
    Murrell is both Chief Executive of Scotland's ruling party and husband of the First Minister.
    Sturgeon may feel invincible and (evidently) ultra vindictive, but in the end it will be the obsessive cover- up that gets her,
    Paul Red square
    @Wifty8
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @CraigMurrayOrg
    What's the serious crime - the leak or the instruction to put pressure on the police?
    Craig Murray -
    @CraigMurrayOrg
    ·
    4h
    the leak is the crime not the pressurising, according to the Crown Office instructions to police.
    That in itself is in my view sufficient evidence of the corruption of the Crown Office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Phone lines being installed?

    Nowadays you can just send a grunt out to buy a box of burner phones and it’s far less likely to reach the tabloids.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    What a difference 104 weeks make :)

    There was this wonderful moment I was even more witty than you, and then I woke up.
  • I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.
  • moonshine said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Is there a surprise contender this year? I can’t decide if Sam Gyimah or Sir Graham was the biggest piss take candidate of recent times.
    If Leadsom runs again, I encourage all bots to keep backing her down to single figures again. They might also want to back David Miliband (clearly due a return to the top of UK politics) and Brian Rose (unlucky second fav in the London mayoral election).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Antonio Conte is a strategic genius, so far he’s managed to get two premier league games postponed until after the transfer window opens.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IshmaelZ said:

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Listen. Understand. The mods are out there. They can't be reasoned with, they can't be bargained with. They don't feel pity or remorse or fear and they absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are dead.
    What happened to both?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    Would they have him back?
  • kinabalu said:

    Betting post. Really big move in the 'Johnson still PM at 2022 Tory Party Conf' market on betfair. This morning it was 1.5, it is now 1.85. I opined this morning in quite jaunty fashion that the 1.5 was 'value'. And I followed through on that piece of punditry with a modest sized bet. A period of silence from me on Johnson exit markets is, I think, warranted. (looking down at shoes emoticon).

    I think you are right. Although might wait til he has got through this weekend, even if that means a worse price.
  • I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    Being a shorter serving Prime Minister than Theresa May might not be something he's keen on.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I enjoy a ghoulish delight when I see a poster’s profile pic “go dark”.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Of all the Tory leadership contenders, who is the most dovish on Covid? Suspect that’s going to be the way to bet.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    edited December 2021

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    He can’t do that while we’re under restrictions, that would be 1000x worse than Dave whistling his happy tune the day after the referendum. So he needs Omicron to be a false alarm and then do so in the new year, when there’s less crisis and it’s more responsible to hold a leadership election.

    Of course, the various black swans I mentioned earlier might mean he has a very small window (or no window at all) to make a graceful exit with no live crisis.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    No. Carrie would lose her influence. Plus she’s smart enough to know that having him as PM a is a good enough way to keep him (mostly) faithful. As a journalist, he’d been shagging in no time.
  • Of all the Tory leadership contenders, who is the most dovish on Covid? Suspect that’s going to be the way to bet.

    Mark Harper.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    moonshine said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Is there a surprise contender this year? I can’t decide if Sam Gyimah or Sir Graham was the biggest piss take candidate of recent times.
    Chloe Smith?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    At what point does @HYUFD switch allegiance?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    How about a compromise? PT to be let back on as long as he agrees to submit no more than 100 posts each day?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
    You and I do not agree on a lot of things , but you are to be credited with your last person standing tribute for Boris

    I am politically homeless for the first time in near 60 years, but I simply want a conservative leader with integrity and ability and Boris is not that person

    Time for his mps to be kind and invite Boris to move on and if he refuses act accordingly
  • I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    I'd be surprised if Boris quits in time to save my 2021 exit bet (and there is not really the time to elect a replacement anyway) but this week's pressures, and especially the reappearance of wallpapergate mean it will be even harder to maintain a lifestyle that has just become more expensive to the tune of one daughter. Boris will step down before the next election imo, and will not need to be ousted.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    Although a rather untypical (ahem) PM in many respects, I strongly suspect only electoral defeat or parliamentary regicide will remove him as per all other PMs in recent memory.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Of all the Tory leadership contenders, who is the most dovish on Covid? Suspect that’s going to be the way to bet.

    Rishi.
    Truss.
    Sir Graham Brady, Old Lady.

    Gove and Dorries are “hawks”.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    I think he'll not go unless forced. He clearly aspires to be a great PM - if he goes now he'll be judged as quite if not very poor (although actually getting us through the Brexit limbo was a real achievement)

    I really think that the cabinet may just tell him he has to go, and clearly he will if that happens.

    The 1922 mechanism is very messy, and I'm sure back-benchers are talking to members of the cabinet about avoiding that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2021

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Phone lines being installed?

    Some of the runners and riders may yet fall victim to Partygate. One lives just above where the disco ball hangs, so how didn't he know about a party... or several just a few feet below him.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Of all the Tory leadership contenders, who is the most dovish on Covid? Suspect that’s going to be the way to bet.

    Mark Harper.
    Is he a genuine contender though?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Listen. Understand. The mods are out there. They can't be reasoned with, they can't be bargained with. They don't feel pity or remorse or fear and they absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are dead.
    What happened to both?
    First rule of Fight Club is...

    (Whispering in your ear, they were banned, for reasons still debated by scholars.)
  • Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    How about a compromise? PT to be let back on as long as he agrees to submit no more than 100 posts each day?
    Have Smarkets put a market up on his return date yet?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    moonshine said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Is there a surprise contender this year? I can’t decide if Sam Gyimah or Sir Graham was the biggest piss take candidate of recent times.
    Chloe Smith?
    Lord Frost.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Leon said:

    Stop banning people just before one of the most miserable Christmases in history. Seriously

    PB is a pub with regulars. You don't chuck them out FOREVER on a lonely December night when they already might be feeling a bit low, and you don't chuck them out just for being cantankerous or argumentative

    Racism, fine. Horrible abuse, fine. Yellow card, maybe red card. Having a pedantic spat? Really?

    Abuse? Don't five the moderator any ideas. ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    Leave it Albert, he's not worth it....

    Two older guys get into a scuffle in a Morrisons car park in Clacton, Essex
    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1469019600285224961?t=S5rpsDIgrfn3a0NOO9Yo4Q&s=19
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    IshmaelZ said:

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Listen. Understand. The mods are out there. They can't be reasoned with, they can't be bargained with. They don't feel pity or remorse or fear and they absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until you are dead.
    Too right 👍🏻 I’ll state there must be standards even if it’s the last thing I ever post.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Of all the Tory leadership contenders, who is the most dovish on Covid? Suspect that’s going to be the way to bet.

    Mark Harper.
    Is he a genuine contender though?
    No.
  • It all feels very febrile at the moment. I can quite easily see Christmas intervening and saving Boris in the short term (if the Tories manage to win the by election that will also give some respite and calm some nerves).

    But there’s also a chance that we get a smoking gun here. If we see something that suggests Boris knew about a party, or gave it his blessing, or (worse) is pictured attending one, you can imagine a scenario where his position becomes untenable by the end of the weekend. I get the feeling Tory MPs are angry and disquieted right now, but not ready to start sending letters and kick start a party war just yet. But you can see a situation where the situation could change rapidly, if there is some sort of further leak, potentially in the Sundays.
  • At what point does @HYUFD switch allegiance?

    John Churchill, the future 1st Duke of Marlborough, waited until the very last minute IIRC.
  • Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    How about a compromise? PT to be let back on as long as he agrees to submit no more than 100 posts each day?
    There might be something in a posts-per-thread quota, even if it leads to more sock-puppets, provided it reduces the incidence of tedious multi-post spats. If you've not convinced the guy after the second post, the seventeenth won't clinch it either.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Some of the subsample splits are astonishing. Might be worth aggregating these from a few recent polls. The Tories still lead with 65+ voters 52-22 and with men 39-35, but Labour has a stupendous lead among women 46-29 - with the caveat that there are more undecided women (though that is normal) and the percentage of 2019 Tories switching to Labour is lower in this poll than in the recent Redfield & Wilton 4% lead poll. 17% of the Tories GE2019 vote doesn't know who they will vote for, with 7% switching to Labour. The position is clearly still recoverable.
  • 🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no work for tinkers' hands.

    The current cohort of Tory MPs lacks the killer instinct, and far too many think they owe Boris their seat.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Leon said:

    Stop banning people just before one of the most miserable Christmases in history. Seriously

    PB is a pub with regulars. You don't chuck them out FOREVER on a lonely December night when they already might be feeling a bit low, and you don't chuck them out just for being cantankerous or argumentative

    Racism, fine. Horrible abuse, fine. Yellow card, maybe red card. Having a pedantic spat? Really?

    I'd imagine that being rude to the landlord would have you turfed out onto your arse from most pubs.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    @HYUFD it would be useful if you could give us details on the actual mood within the Tory party. You must be a part of Whatsapp groups etc?

    Or are they too afraid to talk to you about it in fear of you calling them filthy tony blair supporting non-tories?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave
  • Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    How about a compromise? PT to be let back on as long as he agrees to submit no more than 100 posts each day?
    There might be something in a posts-per-thread quota, even if it leads to more sock-puppets, provided it reduces the incidence of tedious multi-post spats. If you've not convinced the guy after the second post, the seventeenth won't clinch it either.
    20 free posts per thread.
    Next 10 10p each.
    Next 10 20p each.
    Keep doubling.
    Split the funds between the site and charidee.
  • HYUFD said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
    That's the crucial point. Most of the building blocks are in place except the one showing an alternative Tory leader doing much better than Boris.

    That is what collapses the Jenga tower.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    Being a shorter serving Prime Minister than Theresa May might not be something he's keen on.
    After Johnson's history of backstabbing, falling on his own sword in fewer days than Mrs May was PM would be a wonderful irony.

    I for one would laugh my **** off!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    Although a rather untypical (ahem) PM in many respects, I strongly suspect only electoral defeat or parliamentary regicide will remove him as per all other PMs in recent memory.
    I think I agree with that.
    But... I don't think Boris could cope with being defenestrated or humiliated. I can't see him wishing to fight against a challenger if he had any chance of losing. So he could fall on his sword and announce that he has decided to spend more time with his wife and children, giving three months' notice, say.
  • @HYUFD it would be useful if you could give us details on the actual mood within the Tory party. You must be a part of Whatsapp groups etc?

    Or are they too afraid to talk to you about it in fear of you calling them filthy tony blair supporting non-tories?

    I know the feeling !!!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Leon said:

    Stop banning people just before one of the most miserable Christmases in history. Seriously

    PB is a pub with regulars. You don't chuck them out FOREVER on a lonely December night when they already might be feeling a bit low, and you don't chuck them out just for being cantankerous or argumentative

    Racism, fine. Horrible abuse, fine. Yellow card, maybe red card. Having a pedantic spat? Really?

    Banning people often ends up as whack a mole anyway when they open a new account.
  • I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    Although a rather untypical (ahem) PM in many respects, I strongly suspect only electoral defeat or parliamentary regicide will remove him as per all other PMs in recent memory.
    I think I agree with that.
    But... I don't think Boris could cope with being defenestrated or humiliated. I can't see him wishing to fight against a challenger if he had any chance of losing. So he could fall on his sword and announce that he has decided to spend more time with his wife and children, giving three months' notice, say.
    That would be an ideal solution
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    How about a compromise? PT to be let back on as long as he agrees to submit no more than 100 posts each day?
    There might be something in a posts-per-thread quota, even if it leads to more sock-puppets, provided it reduces the incidence of tedious multi-post spats. If you've not convinced the guy after the second post, the seventeenth won't clinch it either.
    @HYUFD says hello!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    HYUFD said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
    That's the crucial point. Most of the building blocks are in place except the one showing an alternative Tory leader doing much better than Boris.

    That is what collapses the Jenga tower.
    Or, more specifically for Boris, the naked twister pile.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Stop banning people just before one of the most miserable Christmases in history. Seriously

    PB is a pub with regulars. You don't chuck them out FOREVER on a lonely December night when they already might be feeling a bit low, and you don't chuck them out just for being cantankerous or argumentative

    Racism, fine. Horrible abuse, fine. Yellow card, maybe red card. Having a pedantic spat? Really?

    Banning people often ends up as whack a mole anyway when they open a new account.
    I can't think of any who would have done that.
  • 85% in UK want colleagues to be fully vaccinated at work ….

    https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1468999966962204674
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    But then it implodes, the days get longer and what is revealed is so relentlessly boring that you long for the cloak of darkness to return to hide it from you. Imagine 2 months in which Burns bloody Night and sodding Valentine's day are the only things that happen
  • Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    And currently firing both barrels...
    How much you got on Napoli this evening foxy?
    A tenner to top the group...
    You are a bad man betting against your own clubs and parties. If you end up getting duffed up don’t come to us for a croggy to the hospital. 😠
    I often bet against my own side. If they lose it is a small consolation, if they win I couldn't care less.

    I also am very aware of their weaknesses. Bertrand is the worst player that I have seen in a Leicester shirt.
  • Exclusive: Boris Johnson's most senior spin doctor Jack Doyle made thank you ​speech and handed out awards at Downing Street Christmas party on December 18, @itvnews has been told.

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1469017712840126473
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Some more fag packet epidemiology. Very very rough but bear with me

    Omicron is maybe half as severe?

    It puts 1/3 of SA cases in hospital as against 2/3 for Delta - Daily Mail and others (today)

    But it is 4-5 times as transmissible, via natural R and breakthrough infectivity (Japan, SA: academics)

    Half as bad but four times as infectious? We are still in trouble

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    FPT: Putting those figures into Flavible gets Lab 308, Con 245, SNP 52, LD 20, usual for PC/Grn.

    Some interesting squeezes become possible. In (say) Wantage, Flavible reckons Con 41, LD 32. That opens up a compelling argument to Labour switchers. In this particular case, the local councils have already fallen from Con to LD, suggesting that local Labour voters might already be happy with a tactial vote.

    In which case, Starmer wouldn’t be in Nippy’s pocket, but in Davey’s, which doesn’t pose the same threat to anti Scottish racists.
    Indeed. More than that, a tacit Davey/Starmer pact is probably quite reassuring to Home Counties swing voters.
  • Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
    I have a bit of do on Saturday that I am now seriously considering cancelling.

    I am very low with this shit tonight. How many more winters are going to be like this?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400
    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    Yeah yeah.
    All my Christmas parties off.
    Cos I've got COVID. Think yourself lucky, mate.
  • dixiedean said:

    Can I thank PT for getting banned? Very kind of him.
    Now I can catch up with threads in half the time.

    But how will you understand the sclerotic nature of EU institutions?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,149

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Are they banned? Or did they just slink off somewhere together?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
    I have a bit of do on Saturday that I am now seriously considering cancelling.

    I am very low with this shit tonight. How many more winters are going to be like this?
    Don’t cancel.
    Risk is still v low.
    Another fortnight and the sitch will be different.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,400

    HYUFD said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
    That's the crucial point. Most of the building blocks are in place except the one showing an alternative Tory leader doing much better than Boris.

    That is what collapses the Jenga tower.
    Which ought to be doubly worrying Tories.
    No alternative improves. Just gives a different mix of voters I suspect.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Why were they banned?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    dixiedean said:

    Can I thank PT for getting banned? Very kind of him.
    Now I can catch up with threads in half the time.

    But how will you understand the sclerotic nature of EU institutions?
    Or the divine 3 dimensional chess of Frost...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    And currently firing both barrels...
    How much you got on Napoli this evening foxy?
    A tenner to top the group...
    You are a bad man betting against your own clubs and parties. If you end up getting duffed up don’t come to us for a croggy to the hospital. 😠
    I often bet against my own side. If they lose it is a small consolation, if they win I couldn't care less.

    I also am very aware of their weaknesses. Bertrand is the worst player that I have seen in a Leicester shirt.
    Just feels dirty, doesn’t it? And be careful you don’t cheer at the wrong moment in the wrong end.

    And I guess the drinks must be on you with Leicester form this season 🤣
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    Yeah yeah.
    All my Christmas parties off.
    Cos I've got COVID. Think yourself lucky, mate.
    Tested positive now?
  • Leon said:

    Stop banning people just before one of the most miserable Christmases in history. Seriously

    PB is a pub with regulars. You don't chuck them out FOREVER on a lonely December night when they already might be feeling a bit low, and you don't chuck them out just for being cantankerous or argumentative

    Racism, fine. Horrible abuse, fine. Yellow card, maybe red card. Having a pedantic spat? Really?

    I'd imagine that being rude to the landlord would have you turfed out onto your arse from most pubs.
    I hadn't thought of it like that, but that is fair as well. I expect and hope they will both be back by next week if not earlier.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    Yeah yeah.
    All my Christmas parties off.
    Cos I've got COVID. Think yourself lucky, mate.
    Sympathies

    BUT the negative mental effect of another cancelled festive season is a very real thing, and really not good. People are sunk into despair. Even my most resilient friends are lamenting, and the already-flaky are in deep shit
  • dixiedean said:

    Can I thank PT for getting banned? Very kind of him.
    Now I can catch up with threads in half the time.

    Sorry Dixie but I am a little out of touch. What exactly did PT do - some injudicious remark about OGH's hairstyle?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    Stop banning people just before one of the most miserable Christmases in history. Seriously

    PB is a pub with regulars. You don't chuck them out FOREVER on a lonely December night when they already might be feeling a bit low, and you don't chuck them out just for being cantankerous or argumentative

    Racism, fine. Horrible abuse, fine. Yellow card, maybe red card. Having a pedantic spat? Really?

    I'd imagine that being rude to the landlord would have you turfed out onto your arse from most pubs.
    Yeah, this. I run a (much smaller) forum and I try not to ban people, but frankly I do it out of the goodness of my own heart, and if you start arguing with the landlord I'm not going to spend yet more of my free time keeping you happy.

    Anyway, PT appears to be unbanned now, so welcome back.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    dixiedean said:

    Can I thank PT for getting banned? Very kind of him.
    Now I can catch up with threads in half the time.

    Sorry Dixie but I am a little out of touch. What exactly did PT do - some injudicious remark about OGH's hairstyle?
    I nearly made a pun there...but I thought better of it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    @HYUFD it would be useful if you could give us details on the actual mood within the Tory party. You must be a part of Whatsapp groups etc?

    Or are they too afraid to talk to you about it in fear of you calling them filthy tony blair supporting non-tories?

    Channel 4 News is a good watch for Boris haters. They're crucifying him. It's not like it's been a secret that he's an amoral lying freeloader. Are we the only ones who've been following his career? It feels like we've just walked out of the ark
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I just ask the mods to please let @Philip_Thompson and @isam back on as soon as possible?

    Are they banned? Or did they just slink off somewhere together?
    The tinkerbell effect seems to have worked on pt but not isam, from clicking their usernames
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
    I have a bit of do on Saturday that I am now seriously considering cancelling.

    I am very low with this shit tonight. How many more winters are going to be like this?
    This is the last one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
    There is no Highgate. There is no isam. There is no Philip Thompson. There is only the Dear Leader.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
    There is no Highgate. There is no isam. There is no Philip Thompson. There is only the Dear Leader.
    Very dear, especially when it comes to paying for redecorating.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    I do think he probably will throw in the towel though ideally it would be after winning a second majority in 2023.

    But if that looks completely off the table I think he might just say he's going to stand down and spend his time with Carrie and the kids... say next summer/autumn (I'm 100% certain he'll try and beat Theresa May's 3 years, 11 days tenure though lol)
  • Leon said:

    Some more fag packet epidemiology. Very very rough but bear with me

    Omicron is maybe half as severe?

    It puts 1/3 of SA cases in hospital as against 2/3 for Delta - Daily Mail and others (today)

    But it is 4-5 times as transmissible, via natural R and breakthrough infectivity (Japan, SA: academics)

    Half as bad but four times as infectious? We are still in trouble

    I wonder if there are any free spots on SAGE coming up? Not sure they have a post 2 bottles of wine, rough fag packet epidemiologist as part of their team yet?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    Can I thank PT for getting banned? Very kind of him.
    Now I can catch up with threads in half the time.

    Sorry Dixie but I am a little out of touch. What exactly did PT do - some injudicious remark about OGH's hairstyle?
    I nearly made a pun there...but I thought better of it.
    I would have given that a like, but I thought better of it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Delicious oysters today in Highgate, but my fellow luncher was in undeniably clouded spirits. This new lockdown-lite is REALLY hitting people

    One of the unspoken horrors is the loss of December as a festive period. He and I compared notes about cancelled parties/dinners/drinks - we had the same story

    He said he was clinging on to his one last party left, that was usually his favourite of the year, a rich friend in Crouch End who "always throws great parties", and "sends everyone home singing".

    My friend said "He won't cancel that, he never does"

    As I walked home through an unusually quiet Highgate I got a text message. "He just cancelled it"

    The loss of ANOTHER Christmas is fucking awful. December is what makes the British winter just about bearable. And by Christmas I mean all the happy socialising that goes before December 25th, not the boring day itself, which many can take or leave

    I've never been sure Highgate is a real place. I also know someone who yesterday cancelled this year's parties.
    I have a bit of do on Saturday that I am now seriously considering cancelling.

    I am very low with this shit tonight. How many more winters are going to be like this?
    This is the last one.
    Unfortunately, you just don't know this. No one does. Unless you are making some fastidious, minuscule argument that "no winter is like any other"

    It is quite possible that this virus will keep evolving, forever slightly out of reach. How we react to that is another impalpable mystery

    I would so love you to be right, of course
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Of all the Tory leadership contenders, who is the most dovish on Covid? Suspect that’s going to be the way to bet.

    Mrs T May?


    Joking (mostly)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632
    GIN1138 said:

    I just wonder whether BoJo might just announce that he's quitting as PM so he can get back to doubling his salary by resuming his Telegraph contract.

    I do think he probably will throw in the towel though ideally it would be after winning a second majority in 2023.

    But if that looks completely off the table I think he might just say he's going to stand down and spend his time with Carrie and the kids... say next summer/autumn (I'm 100% certain he'll try and beat Theresa May's 3 years, 11 days tenure though lol)
    If he decides to spend more time with wife and kids it will be a real shock to the system!
This discussion has been closed.