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LAB takes a 6% lead with Survation – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
LAB takes a 6% lead with Survation – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Polling for @MirrorPolitics has Labour lead up to 6 points. Westminster Voting Intention:LAB 40% (+1)CON 34% (-2)LD 10% (+1)SNP 4% (-1)GRN 4% (+1)REF UK 3% (-)OTH 4% (-1)1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21. Changes w/ 1 Dec 21 pic.twitter.com/vJ7Rtq0v1M

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    edited December 2021
    Second, like Boris.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    And at the moment I suspect the only way is up...

    Remember this will come mainly before last night's plan b covid introduction.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    Yes, this is very good for Starmer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    HYUFD will be along in a moment to explain how inefficient the Labour vote is and Starmer will be in Nippy's pocket.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    HYUFD will be along in a moment to explain how inefficient the Labour vote is and Starmer will be in Nippy's pocket.
    Electoral calculus has the Tories losing 117 seats - and I suspect that's an underestimate because it doesn't include a few LD gains that I would expect from the Home Counties if Boris was in charge.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,706
    FPT: Putting those figures into Flavible gets Lab 308, Con 245, SNP 52, LD 20, usual for PC/Grn.

    Some interesting squeezes become possible. In (say) Wantage, Flavible reckons Con 41, LD 32. That opens up a compelling argument to Labour switchers. In this particular case, the local councils have already fallen from Con to LD, suggesting that local Labour voters might already be happy with a tactial vote.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.

    Are you having a go at the Electoral Commission? If so, why?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 939

    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.

    Are you having a go at the Electoral Commission? If so, why?
    Labour have usually had a bias TOWARDS them in FPTP.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.

    300+ seats and Labour can take control daring the SNP to vote things down.
  • Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,954
    They’ll be pleased with that I reckon. Getting some traction and I think the fieldwork was before yesterday’s shambles.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    And at the moment I suspect the only way is up...

    Remember this will come mainly before last night's plan b covid introduction.
    That might tip a percent or two from Con to Reform but nothing more than that, I suspect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    You’d quite easily see Labour govern on that number - either as minority or with the Lib Dems
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.

    Are you having a go at the Electoral Commission? If so, why?
    Boundary not Electoral, but agree there is no reason to cast nasturtiums on them
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    HYUFD will be along in a moment to explain how inefficient the Labour vote is and Starmer will be in Nippy's pocket.
    ... and actually this is a very good result for Boris, relative to what the die-hard-remainer-socialists were predicting. On this basis Boris will soon be Ruler of the Galaxy.
  • I'd like to see leadership figures in these polls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Situation in the UK is ok at the moment. Bloody antivaxxers though.....70% of cases.

    Tim Spector
    https://youtu.be/CsOG-6CfRgk
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    eek said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Never mind the lead, look at the vote share. 40 is the holy grail

    And at the moment I suspect the only way is up...

    Remember this will come mainly before last night's plan b covid introduction.
    That might tip a percent or two from Con to Reform but nothing more than that, I suspect.
    With reform on 4% the Tories lose a few more seats.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,167
    A feeling that polling is returning to "normal" (mid-term blues for governing party) even if politics certainly isn't normal and never will be while Boris is around.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    As for North Shropshire, on UNS even on this poll the Tories would still hold it with 52% of the vote.

    It is also a seat that was far more Leave than the UK average
  • Essex Tories are revolting.

    The chairman of a Conservative group has resigned live on BBC radio over the government's plans for tighter Covid restrictions.

    The new measures include masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and work-from-home guidance.

    Charlie Sansom, of South Basildon Conservatives, told BBC Essex he did not agree with the Plan B proposals.

    He said: "I cannot morally defend a party that I consider to be moving in a very tyrannical direction."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59596499

    Honestly, Charlie Sansom is a patriot. FACT.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
    How does Boris win those people back - it's not 1992 when Major replaced Thatcher or 2015 when the Lib Dems imploded.
  • Star Sports' The Polling Station video this week
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt98ZJ7qs_4

    Spoilers: LibDems too short so hold bets till more evidence; does Starmer need Boris to stay?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.

    Are you having a go at the Electoral Commission? If so, why?
    I'm having a go at anyone who's involved with the proposed dog's breakfast that gives the Tories an even greater advantage that the current set up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Star Sports' The Polling Station video this week
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt98ZJ7qs_4

    Spoilers: LibDems too short so hold bets till more evidence; does Starmer need Boris to stay?

    QTWTAIY
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    Situation in the UK is ok at the moment. Bloody antivaxxers though.....70% of cases.

    Tim Spector
    https://youtu.be/CsOG-6CfRgk

    That kind of data should be being shouted from the rooftops. Considering the percentage who are vaccinated, that’s shocking.
    It really is time to get tough. I’m liking the unvaxxed tax idea. Don’t want to pay? Get the jab!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    And currently firing both barrels...
  • Spurs gane off at the weekend due to them all having covid.
  • TresTres Posts: 680
    FPT

    Sounds like the Tory candidate with the impressive CV in Shropshire is now being hidden from sight because party bigwigs fear he'll shoot himself in the foot if he faces any kind of media scrutiny.

    Remind you of any other so-called top class Tory campaigners?
  • I said a few weeks back that I was expecting a 5% Labour lead as an outlier before the end of the year.

    I'm sticking with that, but I'm now expecting 5% to be the smallest lead not the biggest.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632

    Essex Tories are revolting.

    The chairman of a Conservative group has resigned live on BBC radio over the government's plans for tighter Covid restrictions.

    The new measures include masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and work-from-home guidance.

    Charlie Sansom, of South Basildon Conservatives, told BBC Essex he did not agree with the Plan B proposals.

    He said: "I cannot morally defend a party that I consider to be moving in a very tyrannical direction."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59596499

    Honestly, Charlie Sansom is a patriot. FACT.

    Will there be a vote in parliament on 'plan B'
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    Essex Tories are revolting.

    The chairman of a Conservative group has resigned live on BBC radio over the government's plans for tighter Covid restrictions.

    The new measures include masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and work-from-home guidance.

    Charlie Sansom, of South Basildon Conservatives, told BBC Essex he did not agree with the Plan B proposals.

    He said: "I cannot morally defend a party that I consider to be moving in a very tyrannical direction."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59596499

    Honestly, Charlie Sansom is a patriot. FACT.

    Don't worry HYFUD will step up!
  • . . . meanwhile back in the Emerald City . . .

    Seattle City Council District 3 Special Election - Recall of Councilmember Kshama Sawant
    active registered voters = 77,579
    ballots counted as of Wed = 39,274 (50.6%)

    Recall Yes = 19,733 (50.3%)
    Recall No = 19,487 (49.3%)

    As expected, the 7,117 ballots tabulated and added to the count yesterday strongly favored Sawant, with Recall No winning 62.3% of this batch.

    As of this morning, Thursday, there are about 1,300 ballot that have been accepted but NOT yet counted. Plus unknown (but small) number of valid ballots that will dribble in next few days. Plus unknown number of currently-challenged ballots (=699) will be "cured" by voters submitting required signatures, and counted, likely a few hundred at most.

    Next vote count is today by 4pm PDT, this should settle the question unless the margin this evening is VERY VERY close.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    HYUFD said:

    As for North Shropshire, on UNS even on this poll the Tories would still hold it with 52% of the vote.

    It is also a seat that was far more Leave than the UK average

    I agree.

    Evens is a good price.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    Is it? Labour is up 1% after all the shit and I’m assuming Survation was one of their better polling panels given they were 39% before. What that shows is not mass conversion to Labour but dissatisfaction (and a bit more of it) with the Conservatives - which can be reversed fairly easily if there are no more fuck ups (big if).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021

    Situation in the UK is ok at the moment. Bloody antivaxxers though.....70% of cases.

    Tim Spector
    https://youtu.be/CsOG-6CfRgk

    That kind of data should be being shouted from the rooftops. Considering the percentage who are vaccinated, that’s shocking.
    It really is time to get tough. I’m liking the unvaxxed tax idea. Don’t want to pay? Get the jab!
    Pah! You cannot monetise this; too many of the unvaxxed are, I suspect, supported by the state.

    Freedom, or rather loss of it, is the message they will bend to.

    Not vaccinated? Fine but don't expect to: go to the pub, cinema, night-clubs, eat out, travel on public transport, go into any public buildings including shops.

    Just extend the rules for smoking to the unvaccinated. Simple.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253

    . . . meanwhile back in the Emerald City . . .

    Seattle City Council District 3 Special Election - Recall of Councilmember Kshama Sawant
    active registered voters = 77,579
    ballots counted as of Wed = 39,274 (50.6%)

    Recall Yes = 19,733 (50.3%)
    Recall No = 19,487 (49.3%)

    As expected, the 7,117 ballots tabulated and added to the count yesterday strongly favored Sawant, with Recall No winning 62.3% of this batch.

    As of this morning, Thursday, there are about 1,300 ballot that have been accepted but NOT yet counted. Plus unknown (but small) number of valid ballots that will dribble in next few days. Plus unknown number of currently-challenged ballots (=699) will be "cured" by voters submitting required signatures, and counted, likely a few hundred at most.

    Next vote count is today by 4pm PDT, this should settle the question unless the margin this evening is VERY VERY close.

    Hello @SeaShantyIrish2 what do you reckon, is she in or out?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
    How does Boris win those people back - it's not 1992 when Major replaced Thatcher or 2015 when the Lib Dems imploded.
    The LDs were on less than 10% even in most of 2012
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    As for North Shropshire, on UNS even on this poll the Tories would still hold it with 52% of the vote.

    It is also a seat that was far more Leave than the UK average

    I agree.

    Evens is a good price.
    Brexit is finished and quite possibly old news.

    If that's the case the Leave percentage may not be as important as it used to be.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    Tres said:

    FPT

    Sounds like the Tory candidate with the impressive CV in Shropshire is now being hidden from sight because party bigwigs fear he'll shoot himself in the foot if he faces any kind of media scrutiny.

    Remind you of any other so-called top class Tory campaigners?

    The video he produced seemed sensible enough. Paterson has already shot him heavily in the feet anyway, and Boris has pretty much nuked his feet.

    His one slight hope is that Labour realise they can quite easily win the seat and not just let the LDs have it... and then mess up.
  • NEW – Leadership Ratings:

    Boris Johnson Net: -23% (-12)

    Con voters +15%, Lab voters -55%

    Keir Starmer Net: -2% (+5)

    Con voters -42%, Lab voters +34%

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21. Changes w/ 12 Oct 21

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1469011284603592707

    Starmer leads on gross favourables, just saying.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    As for North Shropshire, on UNS even on this poll the Tories would still hold it with 52% of the vote.

    It is also a seat that was far more Leave than the UK average

    I agree.

    Evens is a good price.
    I did think of backing the LDs but glad I didn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout is quite low and that probably favours the Tories
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021
    Aslan said:

    Polls schmolls.

    That still doesn't give Labour a majority, due to the ludicrous gerrymandering of the seats that gives the Tories an even bigger advantage under FPP.

    Ignore for now.

    Are you having a go at the Electoral Commission? If so, why?
    Labour have usually had a bias TOWARDS them in FPTP.
    BOTH Labour and Tory have a huge bias towards them, of course. They like to argue over whose bias is the bigger, but the losers are all the other parties (ex the SNP, nowadays) and we voters.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    MaxPB said:

    Essex Tories are revolting.

    The chairman of a Conservative group has resigned live on BBC radio over the government's plans for tighter Covid restrictions.

    The new measures include masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and work-from-home guidance.

    Charlie Sansom, of South Basildon Conservatives, told BBC Essex he did not agree with the Plan B proposals.

    He said: "I cannot morally defend a party that I consider to be moving in a very tyrannical direction."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59596499

    Honestly, Charlie Sansom is a patriot. FACT.

    Don't worry HYFUD will step up!
    Are we sure @HYUFD isn't the one resigning?
  • Police Scotland priorities:

    I have today been interviewed by a Detective Inspector of the Serious Crimes Division (sic) over who leaked to Kenny Macaskill MP the text message from Peter Murrell to his Deputy Sue Ruddick, instructing her to pressurise police to act against Alex Salmond.

    https://twitter.com/craigmurrayorg/status/1468953097745489925?s=21
  • eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
    How does Boris win those people back - it's not 1992 when Major replaced Thatcher or 2015 when the Lib Dems imploded.
    By making Mr and Mrs Voter have more money left over at the end of the month.

    Uh-oh.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,030

    FPT: Putting those figures into Flavible gets Lab 308, Con 245, SNP 52, LD 20, usual for PC/Grn.

    Some interesting squeezes become possible. In (say) Wantage, Flavible reckons Con 41, LD 32. That opens up a compelling argument to Labour switchers. In this particular case, the local councils have already fallen from Con to LD, suggesting that local Labour voters might already be happy with a tactial vote.

    In which case, Starmer wouldn’t be in Nippy’s pocket, but in Davey’s, which doesn’t pose the same threat to anti Scottish racists.
  • Only a matter of time until Boris is a goner.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    BigRich said:

    Essex Tories are revolting.

    The chairman of a Conservative group has resigned live on BBC radio over the government's plans for tighter Covid restrictions.

    The new measures include masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and work-from-home guidance.

    Charlie Sansom, of South Basildon Conservatives, told BBC Essex he did not agree with the Plan B proposals.

    He said: "I cannot morally defend a party that I consider to be moving in a very tyrannical direction."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59596499

    Honestly, Charlie Sansom is a patriot. FACT.

    Will there be a vote in parliament on 'plan B'
    Yes, early next week
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632

    . . . meanwhile back in the Emerald City . . .

    Seattle City Council District 3 Special Election - Recall of Councilmember Kshama Sawant
    active registered voters = 77,579
    ballots counted as of Wed = 39,274 (50.6%)

    Recall Yes = 19,733 (50.3%)
    Recall No = 19,487 (49.3%)

    As expected, the 7,117 ballots tabulated and added to the count yesterday strongly favored Sawant, with Recall No winning 62.3% of this batch.

    As of this morning, Thursday, there are about 1,300 ballot that have been accepted but NOT yet counted. Plus unknown (but small) number of valid ballots that will dribble in next few days. Plus unknown number of currently-challenged ballots (=699) will be "cured" by voters submitting required signatures, and counted, likely a few hundred at most.

    Next vote count is today by 4pm PDT, this should settle the question unless the margin this evening is VERY VERY close.

    Thanks for that update, remind me who is Councilmember Kshama Sawant and why are they being recalled?
  • Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    As for North Shropshire, on UNS even on this poll the Tories would still hold it with 52% of the vote.

    It is also a seat that was far more Leave than the UK average

    I agree.

    Evens is a good price.
    I've had a small investment myself at evens but we should factor in the rather odd circumstances of Owen Paterson's resignation. There must be more to life than Brexit, especially now.
  • The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    On polling

    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    NEW – Leadership Ratings:

    Boris Johnson Net: -23% (-12)

    Con voters +15%, Lab voters -55%

    Keir Starmer Net: -2% (+5)

    Con voters -42%, Lab voters +34%

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21. Changes w/ 12 Oct 21

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1469011284603592707

    Starmer leads on gross favourables, just saying.

    Johnson leads on gross fuck-ups, just saying. ;-)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    Only a matter of time until Boris is a goner.

    That’s true for all of us.
  • Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    The Conservative numbers there are absolutely horrific for the government.
  • 🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Essex Tories are revolting.

    The chairman of a Conservative group has resigned live on BBC radio over the government's plans for tighter Covid restrictions.

    The new measures include masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and work-from-home guidance.

    Charlie Sansom, of South Basildon Conservatives, told BBC Essex he did not agree with the Plan B proposals.

    He said: "I cannot morally defend a party that I consider to be moving in a very tyrannical direction."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59596499

    Honestly, Charlie Sansom is a patriot. FACT.

    So on your definition Richard Tice is also a patriot
    https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1468990835060613129?s=20
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
    The trend is our friend.
    But I agree with you on Tory bedwetters. They're certainly not welcome in my house. Disgusting.
  • 🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Michael Gove been on the phone?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    MrEd said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    As for North Shropshire, on UNS even on this poll the Tories would still hold it with 52% of the vote.

    It is also a seat that was far more Leave than the UK average

    I agree.

    Evens is a good price.
    I did think of backing the LDs but glad I didn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout is quite low and that probably favours the Tories
    Actually low turnout doesn’t favour the Tories.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    so 60% of Tories believe Boris has different rules to them but even then 57.5% of Tory voters believe Boris is the best leader

    WTAFFFFF?
  • MaxPB said:

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    The Conservative numbers there are absolutely horrific for the government.
    Yeah, that 60% figure is astonishing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    How many of the 60% Con think 'and that's as it should be'?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Only a matter of time until Boris is a goner.

    True for all of us tbf.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    wow con maj believing that is a shocker
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    edited December 2021

    FPT: Putting those figures into Flavible gets Lab 308, Con 245, SNP 52, LD 20, usual for PC/Grn.

    Some interesting squeezes become possible. In (say) Wantage, Flavible reckons Con 41, LD 32. That opens up a compelling argument to Labour switchers. In this particular case, the local councils have already fallen from Con to LD, suggesting that local Labour voters might already be happy with a tactial vote.

    Very disappointing flat lining from Lib Dem’s still in polls 😕 not being beneficiaries

    But you cheered me up Capitano, the thought of tactical vote of old, in which Case new seat calculator Jadeble makes this same poll Labour 320 Libdems 52 and Cons about 180 and a half.
  • The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    There are some very strange people around.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Michael Gove been on the phone?
    Well 3 of them are in isolation with little to do and a whats app app full of Tory MP contacts.
  • Only a matter of time until Boris is a goner.

    True for all of us tbf.
    I am aiming to try and get past 2022....I don't think Boris will.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021
    BigRich said:

    . . . meanwhile back in the Emerald City . . .

    Seattle City Council District 3 Special Election - Recall of Councilmember Kshama Sawant
    active registered voters = 77,579
    ballots counted as of Wed = 39,274 (50.6%)

    Recall Yes = 19,733 (50.3%)
    Recall No = 19,487 (49.3%)

    As expected, the 7,117 ballots tabulated and added to the count yesterday strongly favored Sawant, with Recall No winning 62.3% of this batch.

    As of this morning, Thursday, there are about 1,300 ballot that have been accepted but NOT yet counted. Plus unknown (but small) number of valid ballots that will dribble in next few days. Plus unknown number of currently-challenged ballots (=699) will be "cured" by voters submitting required signatures, and counted, likely a few hundred at most.

    Next vote count is today by 4pm PDT, this should settle the question unless the margin this evening is VERY VERY close.

    Thanks for that update, remind me who is Councilmember Kshama Sawant and why are they being recalled?
    No! Don't encourage! ;-)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 2,004
    Foxy said:

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    And currently firing both barrels...
    How much you got on Napoli this evening foxy?
  • JohnO said:

    While far from infallibility, the advantage of being an activist over many years is that you genuinely get a feel for your party. So, I fully agree with HYUFD that Johnson is in little danger of being toppled by his MPs, at least in the medium term, notwithstanding strong Labour poll leads or the loss of Shropshire North next Thursday.

    I think North Shropshire will be a Con hold, then it'll be Christmas.

    I do think he becomes vulnerable if there is more news on the parties.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    Situation in the UK is ok at the moment. Bloody antivaxxers though.....70% of cases.

    Tim Spector
    https://youtu.be/CsOG-6CfRgk

    That kind of data should be being shouted from the rooftops. Considering the percentage who are vaccinated, that’s shocking.
    It really is time to get tough. I’m liking the unvaxxed tax idea. Don’t want to pay? Get the jab!
    Pah! You cannot monetise this; too many of the unvaxxed are, I suspect, supported by the state.

    Freedom, or rather loss of it, is the message they will bend to.

    Not vaccinated? Fine but don't expect to: go to the pub, cinema, night-clubs, eat out, travel on public transport, go into any public buildings including shops.

    Just extend the rules for smoking to the unvaccinated. Simple.
    My “favourite” anti-vaxxer is a senior judge.
    I daren’t say any more in case I inadvertently identify him/her.
  • eek said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Michael Gove been on the phone?
    Well 3 of them are in isolation with little to do and a whats app app full of Tory MP contacts.
    Idle hands and all that....
  • MrEd said:

    . . . meanwhile back in the Emerald City . . .

    Seattle City Council District 3 Special Election - Recall of Councilmember Kshama Sawant
    active registered voters = 77,579
    ballots counted as of Wed = 39,274 (50.6%)

    Recall Yes = 19,733 (50.3%)
    Recall No = 19,487 (49.3%)

    As expected, the 7,117 ballots tabulated and added to the count yesterday strongly favored Sawant, with Recall No winning 62.3% of this batch.

    As of this morning, Thursday, there are about 1,300 ballot that have been accepted but NOT yet counted. Plus unknown (but small) number of valid ballots that will dribble in next few days. Plus unknown number of currently-challenged ballots (=699) will be "cured" by voters submitting required signatures, and counted, likely a few hundred at most.

    Next vote count is today by 4pm PDT, this should settle the question unless the margin this evening is VERY VERY close.

    Hello @SeaShantyIrish2 what do you reckon, is she in or out?
    Think she's gonna survive, but not by much. Closer than I thought it would be.

    Actually watched the ballots that arrived this morning being processed via King Co Elections webcams. Also saw staff doing hand check of three batches of recall elections, matched the machine count perfectly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    MaxPB said:

    The current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else

    Believe 66% (Con 60%, Lab 81%)
    Do not believe 26% (Con 32%, Lab 14%)

    1178, online, UK adults aged 18+, 8-9 Dec 21.

    The Conservative numbers there are absolutely horrific for the government.
    Yeah, that 60% figure is astonishing.
    Do you know if that is current VI or 2019 voters? If it's the former then it's curtains for Boris.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,568
    moonshine said:

    Good evening. I would just like to say for the record that Ken Livingstone was a dreadful politician, as was Corbyn, and they were both easy to beat in elections.

    Well said!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    JohnO said:

    While far from infallibility, the advantage of being an activist over many years is that you genuinely get a feel for your party. So, I fully agree with HYUFD that Johnson is in little danger of being toppled by his MPs, at least in the medium term, notwithstanding strong Labour poll leads or the loss of Shropshire North next Thursday.

    I think North Shropshire will be a Con hold, then it'll be Christmas.

    I do think he becomes vulnerable if there is more news on the parties.
    What about the wallpaper given that we now know Boris was aware of the issue 3 months earlier than his previous (Parliamentary??) statement says?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Boris sinking below the waterline... It's all over!

    Ed Miliband had 14-16% leads in 2012, Kinnock was well over 10% ahead through most of 1990, Tory bedwetters are not welcome.

    Hold the line!
    How does Boris win those people back - it's not 1992 when Major replaced Thatcher or 2015 when the Lib Dems imploded.
    It is possible that he could, but it's such a very long road back and he's making an endless stream of mistakes.

    To a small extent I have some slight sympathy with his 'opposition are playing politics' argument - they clearly are working every angle they can - for example the attempt to involve the police seems ridiculous to me. However most of their angles are simply tap ins to an open net.

    I think it was @IshmaelZ who yesterday pointed out that Sunak appeared to be agreeing with Blackford as to Boris' unsuitability - these things just aren't as inconcievable as they should be.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Is there a surprise contender this year? I can’t decide if Sam Gyimah or Sir Graham was the biggest piss take candidate of recent times.
  • 🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Michael Gove been on the phone?
    Yes, but trying to find a youngster to show him how the NHS Covid pass works.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Spurs gane off at the weekend due to them all having covid.

    Leicester has an outbreak too, quite a few out, so Bertrand plays...and let's in two...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    Michael Gove been on the phone?
    The NZ phrase is “having a BBQ at Phil’s place”, after long-time Labour Party plotter (now Auckland Mayor) Phil Goff.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    Situation in the UK is ok at the moment. Bloody antivaxxers though.....70% of cases.

    Tim Spector
    https://youtu.be/CsOG-6CfRgk

    That kind of data should be being shouted from the rooftops. Considering the percentage who are vaccinated, that’s shocking.
    It really is time to get tough. I’m liking the unvaxxed tax idea. Don’t want to pay? Get the jab!
    Pah! You cannot monetise this; too many of the unvaxxed are, I suspect, supported by the state.

    Freedom, or rather loss of it, is the message they will bend to.

    Not vaccinated? Fine but don't expect to: go to the pub, cinema, night-clubs, eat out, travel on public transport, go into any public buildings including shops.

    Just extend the rules for smoking to the unvaccinated. Simple.
    My “favourite” anti-vaxxer is a senior judge.
    I daren’t say any more in case I inadvertently identify him/her.
    20 questions…

    Question 1) Is said judge fond of spider themed jewellery?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Only a matter of time until Boris is a goner.

    True for all of us tbf.
    I am aiming to try and get past 2022....I don't think Boris will.
    I am very confident he will, sadly for the country.

    Tory MPs will talk the talk but won't walk the walk.

    A leadership challenge would be fun though!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Foxy said:

    Sir Bob Worcester used to tell OGH and myself, watch the share of the vote, not the lead.

    That 40% is nice for Labour.

    Remember, the Tory party has two modes, complacency and blind panic.

    And currently firing both barrels...
    How much you got on Napoli this evening foxy?
    A tenner to top the group...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    HYUFD said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
    shirley well ahead of Johnson Conservative - a lower bar just atm.
  • pingping Posts: 1,679
    HYUFD said:

    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Tory leadership contenders have begun manoeuvres on replacing Boris Johnson if the Prime Minister’s position becomes untenable

    Via @theipaper

    They can manoeuvre all they want but unless they have objective polling data showing a Tory party led by them well ahead of Starmer Labour they won't get anywhere
    I sense we’re about to get a slew of polling data. The weekend papers will be full of it.
This discussion has been closed.