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It’s hard to see how Johnson recovers from this – politicalbetting.com

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  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    Indeed. I am wondering if everyone is so retrospectively embarrassed at how popular Livingstone was, or at least how popular they thought he was, that they are pretending it didn't happen, or if something about a particular poster causes people to magically become overly argumentative and disagree with everything he says on principle.
    Haha yeah

    If Boris loses a GE to Sir Keir, I might start saying it was always on the cards!!!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    “Bookies pay out early on a Boris Johnson victory”

    https://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-02/bookies-pay-out-early-on-a-boris-johnson-victory/

    “ A bookmakers is paying out early on a victory for Boris Johnson in tomorrow's mayoral election.

    Paddy Power says that it's "waved the chequered flag" after Boris Johnson became a "1/12 winner".


    “Bet on it ... that Old Etonian will come from behind to cast shadow over No 10”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/default_content/12770029.bet-old-etonian-will-come-behind-cast-shadow-no-10/

    “Right now the odds favour Johnson, the Billy Bunter caricature turned presidential material by a highly disciplined campaign team. Johnson, who hasn't been allowed to open his mouth to put his habitual foot into it for the past six months, has been rewarded with electoral credibility. He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere and now he is 8-15 on to win. My gambling friend explains this means you would get £8 back for every £15 you put on. As a low-stake punter you might feel short-changed but it sounds just about right when it comes to the deal London would probably get from Johnson.”
  • TOPPING said:

    “I think you’re dealing with a variant that has no problem infecting vaccinated individuals”: Florian Krammer, a virologist at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/omicron-spread-infection-severity/620948/

    I would say 50% of the people I know (that's too many, call it 20%) have Covid atm. I had it the other day, plenty on here are getting it.

    At no point has anyone said that a vaccination would prevent infection. It is the severity of that infection that is the issue.
    His point is the easy with which omibastard infects the vaxxed. With other variants there was at least some protection from infection.
    But 'vaccinated does not get infected' is something which is much harder to detect than when they do get infected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,916
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
    I don't think everything Rod Liddle said at Durham South College was illegal, however it does seem close to equality Act.

    Durham is actually interesting as it seems to be two different sets of people with different arguments. The Free Speech are going - it's great how dare Mr Luckhurst be attacked while Durham University is going HOW many parts of his employment contract did he break and can we fix it before more students remove Durham as their first choice.
    It very sad, that university authorities now appear to have a problem with inviting speakers who challenge the viewpoint of some of the students.

    Isn’t having your horizons opened, and your views challenged, supposed to be the whole point of university?
    Again you are missing the context which is both Mr Luckhurst's fault and will be his downfall.

    Mr Liddle was invited to a formal as the speaker without revealing to anyone who the guest was (because if he had few people would have attended). Now the formal was in South College so the College Principal (Mr Luckhurst) basically invited his mate to insult all the students he has a pastoral care responsibility for in his role as College Principal.

    It's also worth adding that there is no right of response or even right to exit the room (even to go to the toilet) and doing so could be subject to disciplinary measures up to expulsion from Durham.

    So that's the first problem Durham University has to deal with. The second one is that it's now also been made into a Free Speech political football to try and project Mr Luckhurst who seems to breached numerous parts of his employment contract.

    And from what I gather it's not doing recruitment any good - UCAS forms are in and this is the exact time students finalise their choices.
    The problem there, is rules that say one can be disciplined for leaving the room at an event.

    Students need to spend a lot more time listing to opinions with which they disagree, because that’s what will happen when they enter the real world.
    Which is what the Free Speech people are trying to argue when Mr Luckhurst's problem is that he's basically broken whole sections of his employment contract while bringing his employer into disrupt.

    The one thing Free Speech activists seem to forget is that while you have Free Speech on a personal level, chances are you've willingly signed other contracts that may impact what you can say or do - see @Casino_Royale keeping quiet about his old employer.
    What does his employment contract say, no speakers to the right of Jeremy Corbyn? There’s clearly something missing from the story.
    Duty of care to the students who call South College their home this year.

    And you then just compare the speech to Durham University's Bullying policy and reflect upon that policy and Mr Luckhurst's position within South College.
    A duty of care, not to expose the students to words and opinions they don’t like?

    What’s wrong with just moaning in the bar afterwards, about what a [email protected] that speaker was - as we all used to a couple of decades ago?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    This is the crucial question and will only inflame unease across Westminster about the work of the independent adviser.

    "For the credibility of this inquiry" 🤪
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1468892847835340806


  • 38th like the Scotland football team.

    Aye, but we're on the way up :-)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,319
    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    You are tweeting that professional alarmist troll now?

    You never learn, do you?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,162

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    Because most people are in favour of them. I have no strong view but as a politician would do the same.

    The work from home is not an order, but a request, if possible. The covid passport is importantly, a vax or test passport not a vax passport.
    Labour was in favour of Maastricht. Didn't stop them tactically voting against to make as much trouble for the Tories as possible.

    Also it is wrong to harm businesses but not then help them. And believe me these proposals will harm businesses.

    A pro-business party, as Labour now claims to be, would see this.
    I saw your post from last night about your daughter giving up the lease on her pub, it's sad but ultimately the right decision given everything that's happening! Has she considered a career in product management for a tech startup? The amount of crossover between running a business and managing a product is actually pretty big. The work environment is usually great too and most now offer full remote working if she doesn't want to move to London.
    Thank you for the suggestion. I'm not sure what's involved but will suggest she look into it. She wants to learn from others now though I expect she'll go back into business for herself one day.

    The lease on the pub was always only for 3 years and she agonised about whether to extend it. But in the end I think this is the right decision. It has been an incredibly tough time but I am very proud of what she has achieved. She has shown grace under pressure.
    Her experience would have made a great Clarkson's Farm-type docu-series.
    Having had a disaster with a business (not pharmacy) I have every sympathy with Ms C's daughter. However, my advice would be to lick wounds for a day or so, then look round, BUT don't rush into anything which might be permanent just because it is, or at least seems 'safe'!
    It hasn't been a disaster. It has been incredibly tough. But the business has made profits in the last two years. Turnover has increased. She has made money. She has kept the business going and built a loyal following despite everything.

    She will look around. She is looking forward to being able to enjoy the summer. But she is not one to sit around doing nothing. Her godfather runs a very successful food business so she is going to talk to him to get advice about what to do, how best to market herself etc.

    What will happen to the business when she leaves is up for grabs. It is a good investment opportunity. The pub is in a larger building which really needs to be done up so that it can provide a flat, a B&B and a much larger restaurant area - so that it can be pub, posher restaurant, B&B and can host weddings etc and have a bigger outside area. The area will soon be in the Lake District National Park and tourism is increasing. Plus if the £25 million allocated from the New Towns fund comes to pass it will really help with regeneration.

    Daughter had all these ideas at one point and was thinking of talking to the landlord about putting some of them into practice. But anyway life intervened ..... For someone else I think now.
    Glad to hear that, and that she can walk away. And, as I indicated, I wish her, and you well. There are considerable advantages in short leases, although it may not always seem so.
    Is she/are you moving a reasonable distance away? Sometimes a good thing to do in these circumstances.
    We live in the next village where we have finally rebuilt our house - which is simply gorgeous. She loves living here. She runs regularly and is training for her first half-marathon and loves climbing too. But she knows she may need to move for work. She is thinking of possibly moving to Scotland where she has friends. She has no great desire to move to London, partly because she does not want to get trapped into the living-in-a-poky-expensive-flat-and-not-being-able-to-buy-trap.

    For the moment she is staying and will look at opportunities and then decide.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    “Bookies pay out early on a Boris Johnson victory”

    https://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-02/bookies-pay-out-early-on-a-boris-johnson-victory/

    “ A bookmakers is paying out early on a victory for Boris Johnson in tomorrow's mayoral election.

    Paddy Power says that it's "waved the chequered flag" after Boris Johnson became a "1/12 winner".


    “Bet on it ... that Old Etonian will come from behind to cast shadow over No 10”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/default_content/12770029.bet-old-etonian-will-come-behind-cast-shadow-no-10/

    “Right now the odds favour Johnson, the Billy Bunter caricature turned presidential material by a highly disciplined campaign team. Johnson, who hasn't been allowed to open his mouth to put his habitual foot into it for the past six months, has been rewarded with electoral credibility. He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere and now he is 8-15 on to win. My gambling friend explains this means you would get £8 back for every £15 you put on. As a low-stake punter you might feel short-changed but it sounds just about right when it comes to the deal London would probably get from Johnson.”
    You are wrong and making a fool of yourself. Not trying to be horrible, but it's true.

    Even the words you cite prove you wrong.

    "He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere..."
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Will she be called Allegra?

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,687

    DavidL said:

    Tories fined for failing to report a donation and keeping a proper accounting in respect of the Downing Street flat fiasco.

    Boris can only hope that the new baby keeps Carrie out of mischief for a while. For someone who has a reputation of being entirely selfish and self interested he has been remarkably loyal to her so far taking a lot of unpleasant flack as a result.

    Being loyal to your wife and mother of your children is a bare minimum of acceptable behaviour. And he didn't even manage that, with the infamous "buyer's remorse" comments. This effort to paint Carrie as a kind of budget Lady Macbeth is desperate stuff.
    Surely alleged comments.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,698
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    “Bookies pay out early on a Boris Johnson victory”

    https://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-02/bookies-pay-out-early-on-a-boris-johnson-victory/

    “ A bookmakers is paying out early on a victory for Boris Johnson in tomorrow's mayoral election.

    Paddy Power says that it's "waved the chequered flag" after Boris Johnson became a "1/12 winner".


    “Bet on it ... that Old Etonian will come from behind to cast shadow over No 10”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/default_content/12770029.bet-old-etonian-will-come-behind-cast-shadow-no-10/

    “Right now the odds favour Johnson, the Billy Bunter caricature turned presidential material by a highly disciplined campaign team. Johnson, who hasn't been allowed to open his mouth to put his habitual foot into it for the past six months, has been rewarded with electoral credibility. He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere and now he is 8-15 on to win. My gambling friend explains this means you would get £8 back for every £15 you put on. As a low-stake punter you might feel short-changed but it sounds just about right when it comes to the deal London would probably get from Johnson.”
    Firstly, that explanation of Johnson's odds is completely and obviously wrong.

    Secondly, that's another article from immediately before the election, and no-one is arguing that Johnsons wasn't the favourite at that point. The contention is that Livingstone was favourite at the start of the run-up to the campaign (which clearly he was).
  • Oh, this looks tasty.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1468892847835340806

    How does No 10 square this:

    In May the PM told Lord Geidt that he did not know who was behind No11 flat refurb until Feb 2021

    Today the Electoral Commission says Boris Johnson Whatsapped Lord Brownlow in November 2020 asking for more cash for the No11 refurb


    Everyone with half a brain cell who was following this case knew that Johnson was lying. And it turns out that he was. Whoever would have thought it?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    “Bookies pay out early on a Boris Johnson victory”

    https://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-02/bookies-pay-out-early-on-a-boris-johnson-victory/

    “ A bookmakers is paying out early on a victory for Boris Johnson in tomorrow's mayoral election.

    Paddy Power says that it's "waved the chequered flag" after Boris Johnson became a "1/12 winner".


    “Bet on it ... that Old Etonian will come from behind to cast shadow over No 10”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/default_content/12770029.bet-old-etonian-will-come-behind-cast-shadow-no-10/

    “Right now the odds favour Johnson, the Billy Bunter caricature turned presidential material by a highly disciplined campaign team. Johnson, who hasn't been allowed to open his mouth to put his habitual foot into it for the past six months, has been rewarded with electoral credibility. He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere and now he is 8-15 on to win. My gambling friend explains this means you would get £8 back for every £15 you put on. As a low-stake punter you might feel short-changed but it sounds just about right when it comes to the deal London would probably get from Johnson.”
    You are wrong and making a fool of yourself. Not trying to be horrible, but it's true.

    Even the words you cite prove you wrong.

    "He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere..."
    “I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.“

    But he wasn’t - in 2008. As I’ve shown. Anyway, happier to be a fool than wrong.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    Clearly Lord Geidt as independent adviser on ministers’ interests is never going to have the same powers of compulsion as the Electoral Commission. But the perceived independence of ‘good chaps’ governance lives — or dies — by everyone telling the truth. Did they?
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1468896052661178377
    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1468894526328688640
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,857
    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    This is a betting site and odds on means better than 1/1 doesn't it?

    Since when was 0.54/1 favourite anything other than the odds on favourite?

    If I back Liverpool at 1.54 (0.54/1) then am I backing them as odds on favourite?

    Ken Livingstone at 0.54/1 was the odds on favourite. That's literally what the term means unless you have some other meaning. That you can't admit you're wrong on this belittles you not me.
    The Online Cambridge Dictionary gives the term the definitions “very probable” and “ thought most likely to happen, succeed, or do a particular thing”. You go with the latter, me the former, either way I cannot believe I am engaging with a man, who incidentally’s. been threatened with the ban hammer this morning, about his own moving goalposts and straw men relating to a response to a third party poster.
    No we are a betting site. Odds on means worse than 1/1. Philip's right on this.

    He's wrong about 97.3% of everything else he comments on but he is right on this.
    True, although in a 2-horse race (which I think London mayor was in 2008?) "favourite" is sufficient.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,365
    edited December 2021
    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    Indeed. I am wondering if everyone is so retrospectively embarrassed at how popular Livingstone was, or at least how popular they thought he was, that they are pretending it didn't happen, or if something about a particular poster causes people to magically become overly argumentative and disagree with everything he says on principle.
    First UK election I made money on.

    (And there haven't been many since.)
  • eekeek Posts: 21,826
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
    I don't think everything Rod Liddle said at Durham South College was illegal, however it does seem close to equality Act.

    Durham is actually interesting as it seems to be two different sets of people with different arguments. The Free Speech are going - it's great how dare Mr Luckhurst be attacked while Durham University is going HOW many parts of his employment contract did he break and can we fix it before more students remove Durham as their first choice.
    It very sad, that university authorities now appear to have a problem with inviting speakers who challenge the viewpoint of some of the students.

    Isn’t having your horizons opened, and your views challenged, supposed to be the whole point of university?
    Again you are missing the context which is both Mr Luckhurst's fault and will be his downfall.

    Mr Liddle was invited to a formal as the speaker without revealing to anyone who the guest was (because if he had few people would have attended). Now the formal was in South College so the College Principal (Mr Luckhurst) basically invited his mate to insult all the students he has a pastoral care responsibility for in his role as College Principal.

    It's also worth adding that there is no right of response or even right to exit the room (even to go to the toilet) and doing so could be subject to disciplinary measures up to expulsion from Durham.

    So that's the first problem Durham University has to deal with. The second one is that it's now also been made into a Free Speech political football to try and project Mr Luckhurst who seems to breached numerous parts of his employment contract.

    And from what I gather it's not doing recruitment any good - UCAS forms are in and this is the exact time students finalise their choices.
    The problem there, is rules that say one can be disciplined for leaving the room at an event.

    Students need to spend a lot more time listing to opinions with which they disagree, because that’s what will happen when they enter the real world.
    Which is what the Free Speech people are trying to argue when Mr Luckhurst's problem is that he's basically broken whole sections of his employment contract while bringing his employer into disrupt.

    The one thing Free Speech activists seem to forget is that while you have Free Speech on a personal level, chances are you've willingly signed other contracts that may impact what you can say or do - see @Casino_Royale keeping quiet about his old employer.
    What does his employment contract say, no speakers to the right of Jeremy Corbyn? There’s clearly something missing from the story.
    Duty of care to the students who call South College their home this year.

    And you then just compare the speech to Durham University's Bullying policy and reflect upon that policy and Mr Luckhurst's position within South College.
    A duty of care, not to expose the students to words and opinions they don’t like?

    What’s wrong with just moaning in the bar afterwards, about what a [email protected] that speaker was - as we all used to a couple of decades ago?
    Nope the duty of care is making sure those students from backgrounds where Durham has a problem (Working class, and basically anyone who didn't go to private school) feel comfortable there.

    Durham knows they already have a big problem there and South College was their latest attempt to fix the problem by creating another new college - and this is the end result following 5 years of using South College to show how it would help fix all the problems highlighted above.

    Durham's big issue is that on every accessibility measure used for funding it's roughly bottom of the table and this is only going to make it worse.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    That fringe! It can only be called doubling down this morning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    edited December 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    Because most people are in favour of them. I have no strong view but as a politician would do the same.

    The work from home is not an order, but a request, if possible. The covid passport is importantly, a vax or test passport not a vax passport.
    Labour was in favour of Maastricht. Didn't stop them tactically voting against to make as much trouble for the Tories as possible.

    Also it is wrong to harm businesses but not then help them. And believe me these proposals will harm businesses.

    A pro-business party, as Labour now claims to be, would see this.
    I saw your post from last night about your daughter giving up the lease on her pub, it's sad but ultimately the right decision given everything that's happening! Has she considered a career in product management for a tech startup? The amount of crossover between running a business and managing a product is actually pretty big. The work environment is usually great too and most now offer full remote working if she doesn't want to move to London.
    Thank you for the suggestion. I'm not sure what's involved but will suggest she look into it. She wants to learn from others now though I expect she'll go back into business for herself one day.

    The lease on the pub was always only for 3 years and she agonised about whether to extend it. But in the end I think this is the right decision. It has been an incredibly tough time but I am very proud of what she has achieved. She has shown grace under pressure.
    Her experience would have made a great Clarkson's Farm-type docu-series.
    Having had a disaster with a business (not pharmacy) I have every sympathy with Ms C's daughter. However, my advice would be to lick wounds for a day or so, then look round, BUT don't rush into anything which might be permanent just because it is, or at least seems 'safe'!
    It hasn't been a disaster. It has been incredibly tough. But the business has made profits in the last two years. Turnover has increased. She has made money. She has kept the business going and built a loyal following despite everything.

    She will look around. She is looking forward to being able to enjoy the summer. But she is not one to sit around doing nothing. Her godfather runs a very successful food business so she is going to talk to him to get advice about what to do, how best to market herself etc.

    What will happen to the business when she leaves is up for grabs. It is a good investment opportunity. The pub is in a larger building which really needs to be done up so that it can provide a flat, a B&B and a much larger restaurant area - so that it can be pub, posher restaurant, B&B and can host weddings etc and have a bigger outside area. The area will soon be in the Lake District National Park and tourism is increasing. Plus if the £25 million allocated from the New Towns fund comes to pass it will really help with regeneration.

    Daughter had all these ideas at one point and was thinking of talking to the landlord about putting some of them into practice. But anyway life intervened ..... For someone else I think now.
    Glad to hear that, and that she can walk away. And, as I indicated, I wish her, and you well. There are considerable advantages in short leases, although it may not always seem so.
    Is she/are you moving a reasonable distance away? Sometimes a good thing to do in these circumstances.
    We live in the next village where we have finally rebuilt our house - which is simply gorgeous. She loves living here. She runs regularly and is training for her first half-marathon and loves climbing too. But she knows she may need to move for work. She is thinking of possibly moving to Scotland where she has friends. She has no great desire to move to London, partly because she does not want to get trapped into the living-in-a-poky-expensive-flat-and-not-being-able-to-buy-trap.

    For the moment she is staying and will look at opportunities and then decide.
    Very wise. She is, of course, well advised!
    Quite possibly runs with a distant cousin who moved to the Lake District from the West Midlands consequent on her divorce, but continues to do what she did virtually, albeit with some travelling. Which she did before, anyway.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,786

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Will she be called Allegra?

    In homage to his first wife?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson WhatsApped Lord Brownlow in Nov 2020 to ask for more cash to refurbish his flat.

    He’d already covered £52k of invoices paid by Cabinet Office, and PM wanted hiim to pay another £59,747.40 direct to the supplier. Total of £112,549.

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1468888681033445379

    I must be old fashioned but asking a mate for money by just using a frigging social media app rather than having a proper conversation seems a poor show.
    Will you lend us a tenner?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    edited December 2021

    Everyone with half a brain cell who was following this case knew that Johnson was lying. And it turns out that he was. Whoever would have thought it?

    And as others will note, it's priced in,

    BoZo lies to them, and they love him for it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,067
    "It’s time for Boris to go
    He has served his purpose — and taken us all for fools
    Giles Fraser"

    https://unherd.com/2021/12/its-time-for-boris-to-go/
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,698
    edited December 2021
    geoffw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Will she be called Allegra?

    In homage to his first wife?
    And his first car...

    Edit: sorry, obviously I mean his butler's first car.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Everyone with half a brain cell who was following this case knew that Johnson was lying. And it turns out that he was. Whoever would have thought it?

    And as others will note, it's priced in,

    BoZo lies to them, and they love him for it.
    A lot of people believe that all politicians lie. Tony Blair was commonly referred to as Tony B Liar, remember. Boris is arguably just more brazen.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,826

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson WhatsApped Lord Brownlow in Nov 2020 to ask for more cash to refurbish his flat.

    He’d already covered £52k of invoices paid by Cabinet Office, and PM wanted hiim to pay another £59,747.40 direct to the supplier. Total of £112,549.

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1468888681033445379

    I must be old fashioned but asking a mate for money by just using a frigging social media app rather than having a proper conversation seems a poor show.
    I'm sure that's what Boris would have done if Covid had made having a drink and such a chat practical.

    Instead the workaround provides more evidence as to the actual story.
  • Sounds like this Durham professor guy is a manifestation of woke on the other side of the looking glass: everyone should be compelled to sit and listen to rantings of Rod Liddle.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,197

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    In your innermost heart, do you ever question why you are shilling for a schmuck?
    He does not. He described the MPs upset with the schmuck as "Traitors" last night. He will snarl at them and cling to the crook right to the end. And then proclaim whichever "traitor" wins the leadership as the New Messiah who has and always has had his support.
    We have always been at war with Eastepping.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    “Bookies pay out early on a Boris Johnson victory”

    https://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-02/bookies-pay-out-early-on-a-boris-johnson-victory/

    “ A bookmakers is paying out early on a victory for Boris Johnson in tomorrow's mayoral election.

    Paddy Power says that it's "waved the chequered flag" after Boris Johnson became a "1/12 winner".


    “Bet on it ... that Old Etonian will come from behind to cast shadow over No 10”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/default_content/12770029.bet-old-etonian-will-come-behind-cast-shadow-no-10/

    “Right now the odds favour Johnson, the Billy Bunter caricature turned presidential material by a highly disciplined campaign team. Johnson, who hasn't been allowed to open his mouth to put his habitual foot into it for the past six months, has been rewarded with electoral credibility. He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere and now he is 8-15 on to win. My gambling friend explains this means you would get £8 back for every £15 you put on. As a low-stake punter you might feel short-changed but it sounds just about right when it comes to the deal London would probably get from Johnson.”
    You are wrong and making a fool of yourself. Not trying to be horrible, but it's true.

    Even the words you cite prove you wrong.

    "He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere..."
    “I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.“

    But he wasn’t - in 2008. As I’ve shown. Anyway, happier to be a fool than wrong.
    Good Lord, you are both! You just don't understand betting
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    This is a betting site and odds on means better than 1/1 doesn't it?

    Since when was 0.54/1 favourite anything other than the odds on favourite?

    If I back Liverpool at 1.54 (0.54/1) then am I backing them as odds on favourite?

    Ken Livingstone at 0.54/1 was the odds on favourite. That's literally what the term means unless you have some other meaning. That you can't admit you're wrong on this belittles you not me.
    The Online Cambridge Dictionary gives the term the definitions “very probable” and “ thought most likely to happen, succeed, or do a particular thing”. You go with the latter, me the former, either way I cannot believe I am engaging with a man, who incidentally’s. been threatened with the ban hammer this morning, about his own moving goalposts and straw men relating to a response to a third party poster.
    No we are a betting site. Odds on means worse than 1/1. Philip's right on this.

    He's wrong about 97.3% of everything else he comments on but he is right on this.
    True, although in a 2-horse race (which I think London mayor was in 2008?) "favourite" is sufficient.
    He wasn’t even favourite that for much, if not most, of 2008 the first few months of 2008. Even if I were to concede re 2/1/2008 that would be a very narrow concession.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,687

    TOPPING said:

    “I think you’re dealing with a variant that has no problem infecting vaccinated individuals”: Florian Krammer, a virologist at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/omicron-spread-infection-severity/620948/

    I would say 50% of the people I know (that's too many, call it 20%) have Covid atm. I had it the other day, plenty on here are getting it.

    At no point has anyone said that a vaccination would prevent infection. It is the severity of that infection that is the issue.
    His point is the easy with which omibastard infects the vaxxed. With other variants there was at least some protection from infection.
    It looks like the boosted will be roughly back to where they were against other variants, the double jabbed possibly a fair bit less.

    BUT - against serious illness and death, the vaccines should hold up ok.
  • I wasn't gambling in 2008 (just as well given as that would have been illegal) and I must say I find it interesting that Livingstone was as strong a favourite as 1.54. So I've learned something today at least.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    Breaking: Dominic Raab and Grant Shapps are now self-isolating after the Aussie Deputy PM, who they met this week, tested positive for Covid.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1468897459866939395
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    Scott_xP said:

    Breaking: Dominic Raab and Grant Shapps are now self-isolating after the Aussie Deputy PM, who they met this week, tested positive for Covid.
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1468897459866939395

    Better than doing a media round to be fair.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited December 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Everyone likes exciting baby news. 👶🏻 Can I use this space to congratulate the parents and send wishes everything continues to go well.

    I know some of you may not want to, but we are going to have to give Boris some space now for his family, and leave off him for at least a week, and stop trying to force him out until at least the 17th. Okay?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited December 2021
    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    isam said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    He is right and you are wrong on this. That is all there is to it. It's not semantics, it is fact
    I would add that it's not going to become easier to persuade him he's wrong the next time, when people can't admit he's right when he's cited rock solid proof for basically every aspect of his claim this time.
    If this was legitimately a betting site, trying to argue that Ken wasn't odds on in the 2008 Mayoral Election should be a banning offence, or the person inventing the story that he wasn't should be mocked to the point where they are too embarrassed to post
    “Bookies pay out early on a Boris Johnson victory”

    https://www.itv.com/news/london/update/2012-05-02/bookies-pay-out-early-on-a-boris-johnson-victory/

    “ A bookmakers is paying out early on a victory for Boris Johnson in tomorrow's mayoral election.

    Paddy Power says that it's "waved the chequered flag" after Boris Johnson became a "1/12 winner".


    “Bet on it ... that Old Etonian will come from behind to cast shadow over No 10”

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/default_content/12770029.bet-old-etonian-will-come-behind-cast-shadow-no-10/

    “Right now the odds favour Johnson, the Billy Bunter caricature turned presidential material by a highly disciplined campaign team. Johnson, who hasn't been allowed to open his mouth to put his habitual foot into it for the past six months, has been rewarded with electoral credibility. He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere and now he is 8-15 on to win. My gambling friend explains this means you would get £8 back for every £15 you put on. As a low-stake punter you might feel short-changed but it sounds just about right when it comes to the deal London would probably get from Johnson.”
    You are wrong and making a fool of yourself. Not trying to be horrible, but it's true.

    Even the words you cite prove you wrong.

    "He's taken the Tory campaign from nowhere..."
    “I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.“

    But he wasn’t - in 2008. As I’ve shown. Anyway, happier to be a fool than wrong.
    I'd suggest that Ken was thoroughly discredited by 1981, when he dishonestly gained control of the GLC by staging a party putsch after the election, rather than winning an election leading his party.

    Before the election he had been defeated to lead the party by the person who won the election, whom Ken then deposed.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Will she be called Allegra?

    I think Allegro would be more appropriate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,931
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,698
    DougSeal said:

    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
    No and no. He had a f’n one point lead. At which point we’ll be getting into the semantics of “odds on” as you reach for a dictionary. Leave it Philip. This is the definition of a pointless argument. You’ve never admitted you’re wrong in your life and I’m not going to waste a morning trying to change that.
    This is a betting site and odds on means better than 1/1 doesn't it?

    Since when was 0.54/1 favourite anything other than the odds on favourite?

    If I back Liverpool at 1.54 (0.54/1) then am I backing them as odds on favourite?

    Ken Livingstone at 0.54/1 was the odds on favourite. That's literally what the term means unless you have some other meaning. That you can't admit you're wrong on this belittles you not me.
    The Online Cambridge Dictionary gives the term the definitions “very probable” and “ thought most likely to happen, succeed, or do a particular thing”. You go with the latter, me the former, either way I cannot believe I am engaging with a man, who incidentally’s. been threatened with the ban hammer this morning, about his own moving goalposts and straw men relating to a response to a third party poster.
    No we are a betting site. Odds on means worse than 1/1. Philip's right on this.

    He's wrong about 97.3% of everything else he comments on but he is right on this.
    True, although in a 2-horse race (which I think London mayor was in 2008?) "favourite" is sufficient.
    He wasn’t even favourite that for much, if not most, of 2008 the first few months of 2008. Even if I were to concede re 2/1/2008 that would be a very narrow concession.
    You're conceding that 2 January 2008 was in fact in 2008? Good grief.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    That fringe! It can only be called doubling down this morning.
    Wrong on so many levels, like a crime wave in a multi storey carpark.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    Morning all.

    Quite pleased I missed the nastiness on the thread last night, with the exhumation of the "I'm alright; let them die" lobby.
  • Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    Quite pleased I missed the nastiness on the thread last night, with the exhumation of the "I'm alright; let them die" lobby.

    And a warm welcome back to the I'm alright, let them go bankrupt lobby.
  • Oh, this looks tasty.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1468892847835340806

    How does No 10 square this:

    In May the PM told Lord Geidt that he did not know who was behind No11 flat refurb until Feb 2021

    Today the Electoral Commission says Boris Johnson Whatsapped Lord Brownlow in November 2020 asking for more cash for the No11 refurb


    Everyone with half a brain cell who was following this case knew that Johnson was lying. And it turns out that he was. Whoever would have thought it?

    I trust that someone is checking this against what BoJo said in PMQs around the time of Wallpapergate.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    So, if Labour win most seats at the next GE, with the Tories having been 2/5 in the market at one point, are we going to pretend that Labour had been favourites all along and they didn't really achieve anything much?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,931

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
  • Here now is the next problem lining up for Boris.

    He lied to Lord Geidt in his investigation into whether the PM had broken the ministerial code. He was required to declare the donation, did not do so and thus had to lie about it. So having lied to that enquiry, his party has been fined and the evidence proving his lie comes out.

    On then to what Boris was shitting himself about - the investigation by Katherine Stone the Independent Parliamentary Standard's Commissioner. We now know that not only did the PM break the ministerial code, but then also lied to a formal enquiry into it to ensure that he gets away with it.

    He broke the ministerial code. And lied to cover it up. And then tried to abolish the standards commissioner to stop her finding out.

    Imagine what relish will be employed to sanction the lying fucker within an inch of his political life...
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    If it can reinfect then it's plausible.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    DavidL said:

    Tories fined for failing to report a donation and keeping a proper accounting in respect of the Downing Street flat fiasco.

    Boris can only hope that the new baby keeps Carrie out of mischief for a while. For someone who has a reputation of being entirely selfish and self interested he has been remarkably loyal to her so far taking a lot of unpleasant flack as a result.

    Loyal? He still shagged that musician...
    And said the buyer's remorse thing
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    And the policy response is a fart in the wind.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,319

    That fringe! It can only be called doubling down this morning.
    I'll take your word for it :D
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    Here now is the next problem lining up for Boris.

    He lied to Lord Geidt in his investigation into whether the PM had broken the ministerial code. He was required to declare the donation, did not do so and thus had to lie about it. So having lied to that enquiry, his party has been fined and the evidence proving his lie comes out.

    On then to what Boris was shitting himself about - the investigation by Katherine Stone the Independent Parliamentary Standard's Commissioner. We now know that not only did the PM break the ministerial code, but then also lied to a formal enquiry into it to ensure that he gets away with it.

    He broke the ministerial code. And lied to cover it up. And then tried to abolish the standards commissioner to stop her finding out.

    Imagine what relish will be employed to sanction the lying fucker within an inch of his political life...

    However, 'conveniently' there won't be a PMQ's now until January.
  • eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
    I don't think everything Rod Liddle said at Durham South College was illegal, however it does seem close to equality Act.

    Durham is actually interesting as it seems to be two different sets of people with different arguments. The Free Speech are going - it's great how dare Mr Luckhurst be attacked while Durham University is going HOW many parts of his employment contract did he break and can we fix it before more students remove Durham as their first choice.
    It very sad, that university authorities now appear to have a problem with inviting speakers who challenge the viewpoint of some of the students.

    Isn’t having your horizons opened, and your views challenged, supposed to be the whole point of university?
    Again you are missing the context which is both Mr Luckhurst's fault and will be his downfall.

    Mr Liddle was invited to a formal as the speaker without revealing to anyone who the guest was (because if he had few people would have attended). Now the formal was in South College so the College Principal (Mr Luckhurst) basically invited his mate to insult all the students he has a pastoral care responsibility for in his role as College Principal.

    It's also worth adding that there is no right of response or even right to exit the room (even to go to the toilet) and doing so could be subject to disciplinary measures up to expulsion from Durham.

    So that's the first problem Durham University has to deal with. The second one is that it's now also been made into a Free Speech political football to try and project Mr Luckhurst who seems to breached numerous parts of his employment contract.

    And from what I gather it's not doing recruitment any good - UCAS forms are in and this is the exact time students finalise their choices.
    The problem there, is rules that say one can be disciplined for leaving the room at an event.

    Students need to spend a lot more time listing to opinions with which they disagree, because that’s what will happen when they enter the real world.
    Which is what the Free Speech people are trying to argue when Mr Luckhurst's problem is that he's basically broken whole sections of his employment contract while bringing his employer into disrupt.

    The one thing Free Speech activists seem to forget is that while you have Free Speech on a personal level, chances are you've willingly signed other contracts that may impact what you can say or do - see @Casino_Royale keeping quiet about his old employer.
    What does his employment contract say, no speakers to the right of Jeremy Corbyn? There’s clearly something missing from the story.
    Duty of care to the students who call South College their home this year.

    And you then just compare the speech to Durham University's Bullying policy and reflect upon that policy and Mr Luckhurst's position within South College.
    A duty of care, not to expose the students to words and opinions they don’t like?

    What’s wrong with just moaning in the bar afterwards, about what a [email protected] that speaker was - as we all used to a couple of decades ago?
    Nope the duty of care is making sure those students from backgrounds where Durham has a problem (Working class, and basically anyone who didn't go to private school) feel comfortable there.

    Durham knows they already have a big problem there and South College was their latest attempt to fix the problem by creating another new college - and this is the end result following 5 years of using South College to show how it would help fix all the problems highlighted above.

    Durham's big issue is that on every accessibility measure used for funding it's roughly bottom of the table and this is only going to make it worse.
    The production of thick poshos is the only area in which the UK still has a competitive advantage, the country is awash with them. Maybe corralling them all in one place, far from most major population centres, is actually a good idea?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Everyone likes exciting baby news. 👶🏻 Can I use this space to congratulate the parents and send wishes everything continues to go well.

    I know some of you may not want to, but we are going to have to give Boris some space now for his family, and leave off him for at least a week, and stop trying to force him out until at least the 17th. Okay?
    fuck no
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    Never mind cases look at hosps n deaths week to yesterday

    📌 daily hospitalizations: + 41%
    📌 daily critical care admissions: + 29%
    📌 hospitalized patients: + 24%
    📌 patients in critical care: + 29%
    📌 daily hospital deaths: + 57%
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    They clearly think vaccines and prior infection will be ineffective against stopping you getting it. 100-150k cases a day will soon lead to 1 million being positive at any one time.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,197

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    There are strange folk in every party.
    Yes but in support of HYUFD (someone has to) the SNP is stuffed with them
    So, you perceive Scots to be “strange”? I wonder what Scots would make of you. What is your electoral record Nigel?
    Pathetic attempt @StuartDickson .

    Unlike those that follow your hate filled creed I consider Scots the same as I consider all human beings: some good some not so good. I consider Scottish Nationalists the same as all nationalists (English, Russian, Trumpian) as hate filled wankers who derive their sense of entitlement and snivelling exceptionalism from a simplistic and very sad view of the world. Clearly the fact you have abandoned living in Scotland has not broadened your very narrow mind.
    @Nigel_Foremain your post seems more hate filled than anything posted by @StuartDickson
  • Here now is the next problem lining up for Boris.

    He lied to Lord Geidt in his investigation into whether the PM had broken the ministerial code. He was required to declare the donation, did not do so and thus had to lie about it. So having lied to that enquiry, his party has been fined and the evidence proving his lie comes out.

    On then to what Boris was shitting himself about - the investigation by Katherine Stone the Independent Parliamentary Standard's Commissioner. We now know that not only did the PM break the ministerial code, but then also lied to a formal enquiry into it to ensure that he gets away with it.

    He broke the ministerial code. And lied to cover it up. And then tried to abolish the standards commissioner to stop her finding out.

    Imagine what relish will be employed to sanction the lying fucker within an inch of his political life...

    Who remembers that PMQs a few months ago when Starmer was questioning Johnson on this? Johnson denied everything and Starmer said very knowingly words to the effect of "we'll just leave it there for now". Johnson could be in very big trouble here.

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    They clearly think vaccines and prior infection will be ineffective against stopping you getting it. 100-150k cases a day will soon lead to 1 million being positive at any one time.
    If they clearly thought that, they'd be taking much stronger actions. Plan B won't change R one jot, and nobody expects it to. The Pubs are still open with no masks, and yet we're supposedly facing NHS collapse in 3 to 4 weeks.

    The only explanation for such nothingy measures is arse covering for the inquiry, or a political distraction, and neither reflects well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,931

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    If it can reinfect then it's plausible.

    In my fag packet extrapolations I got to 1m cases a day in mid January, so Javid thinks it’s more transmissible than I do. Which is interesting. It surely means they know any lockdown is pointless, or they would have brought in a severe Plan Z lockdown ASAP

    if it reaches 1m by December 31st, at a doubling rate of every 2-3 days it will be infecting 32m a day by the 2nd week January. In other words it will fizzle and die before then, having infected everyone it can

    Lockdowns are meaningless. Nothing can stop this. So Plan B was just a gesture - which will fuck city centres and hospitality

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,928
    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    If this is true then Omicron must be very mild
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    If it can reinfect then it's plausible.

    I presume that's reinfect from delta.
  • DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    That fringe! It can only be called doubling down this morning.
    I'll take your word for it :D
    Though I think she should would pile on the votes with a lob, Ang could go this, how cool is that

    https://www.pinterest.fr/pin/530580399823574840/

    Or even go complete curtains would be better than multi-storey crime scene as Z called it

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/584975439071542672/.

    What is she trying for, ethnic? 🤔
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251

    Johnson could be in very big trouble here.

    He told a lie.

    He does that every day.

    Not sure this one will do him more harm than any other.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,161

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Everyone likes exciting baby news. 👶🏻 Can I use this space to congratulate the parents and send wishes everything continues to go well.

    I know some of you may not want to, but we are going to have to give Boris some space now for his family, and leave off him for at least a week, and stop trying to force him out until at least the 17th. Okay?
    Wasn't exactly taking paternity leave yesterday, mind.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Everyone likes exciting baby news. 👶🏻 Can I use this space to congratulate the parents and send wishes everything continues to go well.

    I know some of you may not want to, but we are going to have to give Boris some space now for his family, and leave off him for at least a week, and stop trying to force him out until at least the 17th. Okay?
    No
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    I see that Mr Macron is holding a Press Conference around his plans for being President of the European Council for 2021 Q1 Q2.

    Quite an interesting little outline from Dave Keating. Really. Frames the EU Council as the Upper House of the European Parliament.
    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1468892534420254721

    Does anyone have any frigate contracts to announce?
  • maaarsh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    They clearly think vaccines and prior infection will be ineffective against stopping you getting it. 100-150k cases a day will soon lead to 1 million being positive at any one time.
    If they clearly thought that, they'd be taking much stronger actions. Plan B won't change R one jot, and nobody expects it to. The Pubs are still open with no masks, and yet we're supposedly facing NHS collapse in 3 to 4 weeks.

    The only explanation for such nothingy measures is arse covering for the inquiry, or a political distraction, and neither reflects well.
    Well remember Javid first time in HoC at health he was talking about 100k+ within a couple of weeks...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    The significance was the source. Pagel is not known for being a good news kind of person so if she’s tweeting it then I think it’s significant. But I take your point.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Everyone likes exciting baby news. 👶🏻 Can I use this space to congratulate the parents and send wishes everything continues to go well.

    I know some of you may not want to, but we are going to have to give Boris some space now for his family, and leave off him for at least a week, and stop trying to force him out until at least the 17th. Okay?
    No
    Well, it's different to a dead cat :smile:

    And apparently no PMQ next week as Parliament is finishing 2 days early.

    "I'm resigning to be a house-husband."
  • eekeek Posts: 21,826

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
    I don't think everything Rod Liddle said at Durham South College was illegal, however it does seem close to equality Act.

    Durham is actually interesting as it seems to be two different sets of people with different arguments. The Free Speech are going - it's great how dare Mr Luckhurst be attacked while Durham University is going HOW many parts of his employment contract did he break and can we fix it before more students remove Durham as their first choice.
    It very sad, that university authorities now appear to have a problem with inviting speakers who challenge the viewpoint of some of the students.

    Isn’t having your horizons opened, and your views challenged, supposed to be the whole point of university?
    Again you are missing the context which is both Mr Luckhurst's fault and will be his downfall.

    Mr Liddle was invited to a formal as the speaker without revealing to anyone who the guest was (because if he had few people would have attended). Now the formal was in South College so the College Principal (Mr Luckhurst) basically invited his mate to insult all the students he has a pastoral care responsibility for in his role as College Principal.

    It's also worth adding that there is no right of response or even right to exit the room (even to go to the toilet) and doing so could be subject to disciplinary measures up to expulsion from Durham.

    So that's the first problem Durham University has to deal with. The second one is that it's now also been made into a Free Speech political football to try and project Mr Luckhurst who seems to breached numerous parts of his employment contract.

    And from what I gather it's not doing recruitment any good - UCAS forms are in and this is the exact time students finalise their choices.
    The problem there, is rules that say one can be disciplined for leaving the room at an event.

    Students need to spend a lot more time listing to opinions with which they disagree, because that’s what will happen when they enter the real world.
    Which is what the Free Speech people are trying to argue when Mr Luckhurst's problem is that he's basically broken whole sections of his employment contract while bringing his employer into disrupt.

    The one thing Free Speech activists seem to forget is that while you have Free Speech on a personal level, chances are you've willingly signed other contracts that may impact what you can say or do - see @Casino_Royale keeping quiet about his old employer.
    What does his employment contract say, no speakers to the right of Jeremy Corbyn? There’s clearly something missing from the story.
    Duty of care to the students who call South College their home this year.

    And you then just compare the speech to Durham University's Bullying policy and reflect upon that policy and Mr Luckhurst's position within South College.
    A duty of care, not to expose the students to words and opinions they don’t like?

    What’s wrong with just moaning in the bar afterwards, about what a [email protected] that speaker was - as we all used to a couple of decades ago?
    Nope the duty of care is making sure those students from backgrounds where Durham has a problem (Working class, and basically anyone who didn't go to private school) feel comfortable there.

    Durham knows they already have a big problem there and South College was their latest attempt to fix the problem by creating another new college - and this is the end result following 5 years of using South College to show how it would help fix all the problems highlighted above.

    Durham's big issue is that on every accessibility measure used for funding it's roughly bottom of the table and this is only going to make it worse.
    The production of thick poshos is the only area in which the UK still has a competitive advantage, the country is awash with them. Maybe corralling them all in one place, far from most major population centres, is actually a good idea?
    Sadly I like Durham (although I like it a lot more when the students are back at home for there are just tooooo many of them now).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited December 2021

    That fringe! It can only be called doubling down this morning.
    I'll take your word for it :D
    Though I think she should would pile on the votes with a lob, Ang could go this, how cool is that

    https://www.pinterest.fr/pin/530580399823574840/

    Or even go complete curtains would be better than multi-storey crime scene as Z called it

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/584975439071542672/.

    What is she trying for, ethnic? 🤔
    Aren't they all escapees from Thunderbirds?

    (I saw the Soup Dragon yesterday, so I have some Moon Rabbit soup for lunch today. Complete with the green string they used to trap it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBRyP_I0OOA)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Farooq said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Prime Minister Boris Johnson and wife Carrie have announced "the birth of a healthy baby girl at a London hospital earlier today".

    Rejoice! :D
    Everyone likes exciting baby news. 👶🏻 Can I use this space to congratulate the parents and send wishes everything continues to go well.

    I know some of you may not want to, but we are going to have to give Boris some space now for his family, and leave off him for at least a week, and stop trying to force him out until at least the 17th. Okay?
    fuck no
    We never agree Farouk!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,931

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    The significance was the source. Pagel is not known for being a good news kind of person so if she’s tweeting it then I think it’s significant. But I take your point.
    She’s not alone. Some reliable SA boffins are saying Hmm it’s bad but maybe not as bad as all that

    But, the fog of war. There are still others sounding the sirens
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    Johnson is famed for his Teflon qualities, but the scandals may now be sticking https://trib.al/gcMfNuH
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    The significance was the source. Pagel is not known for being a good news kind of person so if she’s tweeting it then I think it’s significant. But I take your point.
    Maybe even she is sick of constantly pumping out depressing news :-)
  • Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    I thought the official BetterTogether2 line was that the SNP had become a bunch of total softy lapdogs, uninterested in independence but merely seeking to retain cosy jobs? Please make up your minds.

    Oh… that’s your central office hotline ringing, you’d better slither off and answer it…
    The word slither always makes me think of this Guy

    https://youtu.be/fxWHy4f9W30
    Cheers Taz! That was a new one for me.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    Cosplay Sage. Did Eagles come up with that one? 👩🏻‍🔬
  • Scott_xP said:

    Johnson could be in very big trouble here.

    He told a lie.

    He does that every day.

    Not sure this one will do him more harm than any other.

    That is true - but this one was to an enquiry into his own financial conduct and probity which may also have involved him lying in the Commons, and at a time when his popularity has tumbled and he is losing the support of Tory MPs. If the story had broken a couple of months ago he'd have been absolutely fine. Now, though, it may well be different.

  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    There are strange folk in every party.
    Yes but in support of HYUFD (someone has to) the SNP is stuffed with them
    So, you perceive Scots to be “strange”? I wonder what Scots would make of you. What is your electoral record Nigel?
    Pathetic attempt @StuartDickson .

    Unlike those that follow your hate filled creed I consider Scots the same as I consider all human beings: some good some not so good. I consider Scottish Nationalists the same as all nationalists (English, Russian, Trumpian) as hate filled wankers who derive their sense of entitlement and snivelling exceptionalism from a simplistic and very sad view of the world. Clearly the fact you have abandoned living in Scotland has not broadened your very narrow mind.
    Yawn.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,687
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    It'll all be over by end of Jan then - a proper wave of infection and recovery. If that happens we really do need to hope that its milder...
  • Here now is the next problem lining up for Boris.

    He lied to Lord Geidt in his investigation into whether the PM had broken the ministerial code. He was required to declare the donation, did not do so and thus had to lie about it. So having lied to that enquiry, his party has been fined and the evidence proving his lie comes out.

    On then to what Boris was shitting himself about - the investigation by Katherine Stone the Independent Parliamentary Standard's Commissioner. We now know that not only did the PM break the ministerial code, but then also lied to a formal enquiry into it to ensure that he gets away with it.

    He broke the ministerial code. And lied to cover it up. And then tried to abolish the standards commissioner to stop her finding out.

    Imagine what relish will be employed to sanction the lying fucker within an inch of his political life...

    Who remembers that PMQs a few months ago when Starmer was questioning Johnson on this? Johnson denied everything and Starmer said very knowingly words to the effect of "we'll just leave it there for now". Johnson could be in very big trouble here.

    Yes, and I've reminded people of that comment a few times. Its been clear for a while that (a) Boris was in deep shit over flatgate and (b) Starmer knew more than he was saying.

    Deliciously, all Liar has managed to do by lying is delay the inevitable. "Nobody cares about wallpaper" supposedly. Perhaps, but this is no longer about wallpaper.

    Its now the Bunga Bunga Party flat where Nut Nut had illegal parties whilst the rest of us were locked down.
    Where Boris lied about a donor paying a huge £116k to pay for it.
    Where donors and dodgy money is a major fuck you factor to voters
    Where lying and lying and lying to hide the truth isn't a one-off "no-one cares" but is an almost constant pisstake
    Where not declaring and breaking the ministerial code, but lying about it to parliament and braking the code again is really bad when the Treasury bench continuously breaks the code and gets called out for it.

    When the sanctions crash in and Johnson gets disbarred for a month, I don't think punters will be anything like as sympathetic as they would have been had the news come out in isolation earlier this year...
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    If it can reinfect then it's plausible.

    In my fag packet extrapolations I got to 1m cases a day in mid January, so Javid thinks it’s more transmissible than I do. Which is interesting. It surely means they know any lockdown is pointless, or they would have brought in a severe Plan Z lockdown ASAP

    if it reaches 1m by December 31st, at a doubling rate of every 2-3 days it will be infecting 32m a day by the 2nd week January. In other words it will fizzle and die before then, having infected everyone it can

    Lockdowns are meaningless. Nothing can stop this. So Plan B was just a gesture - which will fuck city centres and hospitality

    Does he mean 1m new cases per day, or that on a given day there will be 1m with the bug?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    Cosplay Sage. Did Eagles come up with that one? 👩🏻‍🔬
    Not sure who it was but I can’t claim credit. I apologise to whomever I have shamelessly stolen it from.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    The significance was the source. Pagel is not known for being a good news kind of person so if she’s tweeting it then I think it’s significant. But I take your point.
    Given how very low my mood is about all this shit wrecking another xmas, I will grasp this flimsy straw with both hands.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    The significance was the source. Pagel is not known for being a good news kind of person so if she’s tweeting it then I think it’s significant. But I take your point.
    She’s not alone. Some reliable SA boffins are saying Hmm it’s bad but maybe not as bad as all that

    But, the fog of war. There are still others sounding the sirens
    Eric Fatal-Doom for one and I am sure we can rely on you to post the others.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    TOPPING said:

    “I think you’re dealing with a variant that has no problem infecting vaccinated individuals”: Florian Krammer, a virologist at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/omicron-spread-infection-severity/620948/

    I would say 50% of the people I know (that's too many, call it 20%) have Covid atm. I had it the other day, plenty on here are getting it.

    At no point has anyone said that a vaccination would prevent infection. It is the severity of that infection that is the issue.
    I don't think that is right. For months after the vaccines were developed it was hoped that they would provide herd immunity and stop the further spread of the virus by reducing the number of potential carriers. That may even have been the case with some of the earlier versions of the virus but it seems to have evolved around that. No question that it is not going to stop us all from getting it now, of course.
  • Here now is the next problem lining up for Boris.

    He lied to Lord Geidt in his investigation into whether the PM had broken the ministerial code. He was required to declare the donation, did not do so and thus had to lie about it. So having lied to that enquiry, his party has been fined and the evidence proving his lie comes out.

    On then to what Boris was shitting himself about - the investigation by Katherine Stone the Independent Parliamentary Standard's Commissioner. We now know that not only did the PM break the ministerial code, but then also lied to a formal enquiry into it to ensure that he gets away with it.

    He broke the ministerial code. And lied to cover it up. And then tried to abolish the standards commissioner to stop her finding out.

    Imagine what relish will be employed to sanction the lying fucker within an inch of his political life...

    Who remembers that PMQs a few months ago when Starmer was questioning Johnson on this? Johnson denied everything and Starmer said very knowingly words to the effect of "we'll just leave it there for now". Johnson could be in very big trouble here.

    Yes, and I've reminded people of that comment a few times. Its been clear for a while that (a) Boris was in deep shit over flatgate and (b) Starmer knew more than he was saying.

    Deliciously, all Liar has managed to do by lying is delay the inevitable. "Nobody cares about wallpaper" supposedly. Perhaps, but this is no longer about wallpaper.

    Its now the Bunga Bunga Party flat where Nut Nut had illegal parties whilst the rest of us were locked down.
    Where Boris lied about a donor paying a huge £116k to pay for it.
    Where donors and dodgy money is a major fuck you factor to voters
    Where lying and lying and lying to hide the truth isn't a one-off "no-one cares" but is an almost constant pisstake
    Where not declaring and breaking the ministerial code, but lying about it to parliament and braking the code again is really bad when the Treasury bench continuously breaks the code and gets called out for it.

    When the sanctions crash in and Johnson gets disbarred for a month, I don't think punters will be anything like as sympathetic as they would have been had the news come out in isolation earlier this year...

    I wish I could find the clip!

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,687
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Dr Eric Fingl-Doom on France


    “Devastating surge of #COVID19 emerging in France 🇫🇷, where cases are near/at record highs. Cases also surging much faster & steeper than previous waves—especially in young children age 6-10. Similar spikes in other countries. May our children forgive us. HT @nicolasberrod”

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1468854522399399942?s=21

    France isn’t locking down though. At least not in the 2020 sense.

    Many European nations are edging nervously towards a new lockdown

    Even Denmark. Restrictions have returned there. Masks. Work from home. Extended school holidays. Midnight curfew

    Nothing incredibly onerous - yet. But Denmark was one of the last success stories. Norway similar
    Some countries are having a mare with deaths. Germany posted over 500 yesterday and Hungary regularly has a daily rate that would be equivalent to over 1,500 in the UK.
    Meanwhile I just spotted this. Javid really did mean A DAY

    “Omicron Covid cases could soon exceed one million a day, says Sajid Javid”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/omicron-covid-cases-could-soon-exceed-one-million-day-says-sajid/
    If it can reinfect then it's plausible.

    In my fag packet extrapolations I got to 1m cases a day in mid January, so Javid thinks it’s more transmissible than I do. Which is interesting. It surely means they know any lockdown is pointless, or they would have brought in a severe Plan Z lockdown ASAP

    if it reaches 1m by December 31st, at a doubling rate of every 2-3 days it will be infecting 32m a day by the 2nd week January. In other words it will fizzle and die before then, having infected everyone it can

    Lockdowns are meaningless. Nothing can stop this. So Plan B was just a gesture - which will fuck city centres and hospitality

    But is it new cases of 1m a day, or 1m would test positive? Very different.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,488
    Sam Coates on Sky News actually looks physically exhausted at having to explain Johnson's multiple co-morbid scandals.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Coming from a member of Cosplay SAGE this is significant-

    @chrischirp
    There is some tentative good news out of Gauteng this week, suggesting that cases might be reaching a peak there

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1468885415960760332

    I think given how little testing is done need to be really careful. Positivity rates are off the charts.

    It would be great to think that it just whipped through the unvaccinated youngsters and that was it
    The significance was the source. Pagel is not known for being a good news kind of person so if she’s tweeting it then I think it’s significant. But I take your point.
    Given how very low my mood is about all this shit wrecking another xmas, I will grasp this flimsy straw with both hands.
    If it makes you feel any better there was a guy from proper SAGE on the BBC earlier saying it was important for mental health that people can get together this year.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251

    That is true - but this one was to an enquiry into his own financial conduct and probity which may also have involved him lying in the Commons, and at a time when his popularity has tumbled and he is losing the support of Tory MPs.

    There is no person on Earth who didn't know he lied about his financial affairs, or that he lies to the house.

    The only question is whether Tory MPs still think he wins them more votes than he loses.

    See HYUFD passim...
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
    By “giving in” you mean accepting the democratic will of the Scottish people as expressed at the ballot box.
This discussion has been closed.