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It’s hard to see how Johnson recovers from this – politicalbetting.com

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    Don’t understand the love for Hunt. He was responsible for our pandemic preparedness plan, he was at one point the most reviled politician with the junior doctors contract renegotiation. And he comes across on camera a shifty weirdo, even if he might be very pleasant company in real life.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,355
    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    His decided strategy is to treat it like a war situation and not give fuel to any suggestion that he isn't supporting the government in 'fighting' the virus.
    Bloody daft. This is not a war. It's a public health emergency. You do what is necessary from a public health perspective balanced with the need not to destroy the economy.

    These measures will achieve fuck all re public health and will harm some businesses. And have almost certainly been brought in to save the PM's sorry arse.

    Labour should be giving that arse a brutal kicking not an extra cushion for it to sit on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    moonshine said:

    Don’t understand the love for Hunt. He was responsible for our pandemic preparedness plan, he was at one point the most reviled politician with the junior doctors contract renegotiation. And he comes across on camera a shifty weirdo, even if he might be very pleasant company in real life.

    But he wasn’t a huge fan of Brexit, and that’s all that matters to those currently praising him.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    Hear, hear. @contrarian please return.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited December 2021
    DougSeal said:

    On topic I think it's easy to see how Boris recovers from this. He does nothing much, there are some bad headlines, maybe he loses a by-election or maybe he doesn't. Then he waits for another issue where the Tory press are back on his side, and the Tory press are back on his side.

    He has a trifecta to keep on side, the public, the Tory Press and his MPs. I think his hold on all three has gone and, in the case of the latter, it’s not coming back.
    And in the middle of a pandemic, a fourth, the scientific establishment. And they increasingly may be even more hostile to him than his own MP's, I think, for destroying their message.
  • eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    Agreed wholeheartedly! That is what has made me a consistent lurker on this site for more than 10 years. A range of views and robust debate makes this place a real gem of political discussion (I understand it may also moonlight as a betting website?).
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    Because most people are in favour of them. I have no strong view but as a politician would do the same.

    The work from home is not an order, but a request, if possible. The covid passport is importantly, a vax or test passport not a vax passport.
    Labour was in favour of Maastricht. Didn't stop them tactically voting against to make as much trouble for the Tories as possible.

    Also it is wrong to harm businesses but not then help them. And believe me these proposals will harm businesses.

    A pro-business party, as Labour now claims to be, would see this.
    Sure, Labour could support something on business rates or VAT for impacted businesses, and it would probably be wise for them to do so. Voting against the restrictions would play badly for them though.
    No it wouldn't. They could very easily say "we can't support restrictions without financial support being made available for the restrictions".

    If asked why they rejected the restrictions then say they would back them if the support was put in place and its the governments fault for not doing so.

    Extract a price for your votes.
  • eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    One senior Tory said Johnson was nearing the point of maximum danger with MPs – and said next week’s byelection after the departure of Owen Paterson would be key. Many Tories, including cabinet ministers, have indicated that they do not intend to help campaigning efforts in North Shropshire.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/08/mood-mutinous-among-mps-and-ministers-over-covid-plan-b-measures
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Roger said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson may be in trouble, but so far the 'outrage' over a party almost 48* weeks ago continues on the front pages. There have been noises on Twitter from Douglas Ross and Ruth Davidson, but if they are joined by more public misgivings, criticism from Tory MPs who have remained quiet, then the tide might be turning.

    There have been unattributed quotes on Twitter from Senior Tories, but until they go pubic, he may remain safe for the time being. Haven't yet seen any PPSs standing aside to spend more time on the back either. Perhaps a storm might be unleashed after the weekend, or perhaps not.

    The other political parties need to be certain that the press can't find anything on their leading figures hosting parties, events and celebrations in the run up to Christmas.

    * I'm not happy that Christmas was difficult for so many last year, but am still surprised that so many people kept that celebration secret for so long.

    I'm beginning to worry that this Labour Party are starting to look like a bunch that wouldn't party even if they were allowed. This joyless humourless look isn't a good one. I can see the attraction of contrasting themselves with the arch hedonist but there are other ways. 'Labour' is a brand and misery isn't a great seller. Optimism and humour are much better
    Under current circumstances that isn't such a bad look.

    As Johnson's cheese and wine events start to take on the vision of lockdown Roman orgies the more puritanical Starmer appears, the better.
  • It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    Why were you recommending people bet on a "totally discredited figure" at 1.5 then? Or as I think you wrote it then 0.5-1

    Why was the other "totally discredited figure" polling 10% poll leads and @TheScreamingEagles was adamant Boris's election meant that he would become PM?
    I love PBers with long memories.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    I would go further and say he'd be the ideal Tory MP. I heard Javid this morning tying himself in knots trying to argue black was white in order to remain loyal to Johnson. He contradicted himself several times in the same sentence. HYUFD has the ability to do it without compromising himself
  • This is the most important news of the week.

    Verstappen warned, 'Abu Dhabi steward not a fan of Max'

    https://www.gpblog.com/en/amp/100835/verstappen-warned-steward-abu-dhabi-not-a-fan-of-max.html
  • eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    I absolutely respect the posters who have views contrary to mine when it is honest and consistent. I'm not sure HUYFD falls into either of those. I absolutely want him to keep posting, but perhaps with a little more of the self-reflection and humility that makes us all human.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    On topic I think it's easy to see how Boris recovers from this. He does nothing much, there are some bad headlines, maybe he loses a by-election or maybe he doesn't. Then he waits for another issue where the Tory press are back on his side, and the Tory press are back on his side.

    Spot on. Right now if Boris was on fire I'd be too busy celebrating to piss on him, but it does feel like OGH is letting the wish be the father of the thought. In particularly the fact that people who he beat are discredited (by him, after having been successful figures prior to facing him) is really quite irrelevant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,298
    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    IanB2 said:

    "Reports of seven alleged parties held last Christmas across Government have emerged as Boris Johnson faces pressure to widen the investigation."

    Telegraph live blog

    It it's Cummo behind all this, surely he has the final bullet already polished?
    Sunak as PM giving DC a peerage (Baron Cummings of Barnard Castle for the memes) and bringing him into the cabinet would be a good plot twist.

    Dunno why people are getting the arsehole with HYUFD. He's always been very straightforward about his politics and doesn't try to finesse his position like most of the other tories on here.
    Agreed. HYUFD is simply expressing support for his party. Disagreement should be civil. I know what it's like to experience a PB pile-on, cut him some slack people!
    ...
    Agreed.
    There's a difficult balance to strike between not piling on, and the need to respond to some of his more absurd posts, but I'm trying to tone it down.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    Dura_Ace said:



    Agreed. HYUFD is simply expressing support for his party. Disagreement should be civil. I know what it's like to experience a PB pile-on, cut him some slack people!

    I am a card carrying member of the #dirtbagleft (as typified by Chapo Trap House and Cum Town) so I utterly reject civility and liberalism. But, otherwise, you are right.
    So the bog-standard left merely reject liberalism, while the dirtbag left rejects civility plus liberalism. I see. 10/10 for honesty.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,355
    IshmaelZ said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    But he is morally insane. I don't say that lightly or goadingly but because he reads across from christianity to toryism. In both cases the underlying thought is the same - having a rational basis for one's belief is not just superfluous, it is heretical. You gotta have faith, and nothing but faith, and rigorously rule out the possibility of Mother Church sometimes being dead wrong about things.

    But I agree that it is pointless trying to put him right.
    He does talk a lot of nonsense though.

    Take the opinions of Red Wall voters. He said yesterday that their opinions should be listened to. When I teasingly pointed out that I was one of these voters he told me that I did not count because I did not vote Tory in 2019.

    And yet, for someone with such encyclopaedic knowledge of polls and elections, it is a curiously idiotic statement to make.

    Copeland was very many years a Labour seat. How does he think Trudy Harrison won it in 2017? By listening to those who had not voted Tory before and were persuaded to do so.

    How does he think Trudy increased her majority at the 2 subsequent general elections? By persuading those who had not previously voted Tory to do so.

    When I point this out - that listening and taking account of those who don't vote for you and persuading them to do so is the essence of political success, his response is a polite version of "Fuck off". It is most curious.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738

    Stocky said:

    Oh I see. "Leaving drinks" - work by definition - is now a party is it?
    Angels on a pin head. Drinks and nibbles and everyone gathers round - do you think the rest of the country was doing that at the time? Of course, not - businesses were too responsible.
    I'm not sure whether you are being serious or not.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    moonshine said:

    Don’t understand the love for Hunt. He was responsible for our pandemic preparedness plan, he was at one point the most reviled politician with the junior doctors contract renegotiation. And he comes across on camera a shifty weirdo, even if he might be very pleasant company in real life.

    Yep - just another in the T May mould - wants it too much, weird interpersonal skills, has somehow managed to turn lack of any political successes in to a reputation for competance.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,993
    My WhatsApp is this morning being attacked from all angles by the same video, of Boris giving his speech super imposed in front of a raucous downing st party, with Hancock grabbing arse and May doing her weird dance.

    I can only remember this happening twice before. Cummings and the castle. And Boris in the Love Actually video. He’s done with. It’s now just about getting rid responsibly with the backdrop of Omicron.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,298
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    One point about the restrictions, vaxports etc being brought in - they include a sunset clause for (I think) the end of January.

    At which point Boris gets the fool Starmer to vote them through again.
    That's possible, of course.
    But having so short term a sunset clause is a small improvement.

    The vaxports are particularly silly, and of questionable use, given the timeframe.
  • My piss boils furthermore.

    Boris Johnson faces more questions about his team’s attitude towards coronavirus rules today after it emerged that Tory aides threw a raucous Christmas party and senior Downing Street staff held a quiz night.

    As anger grows among Tory MPs about an event held in No 10 on December 18 last year, The Times can disclose that Conservative Party staff danced and drank wine late into the night at another event that month.

    Senior advisers and officials working in Downing Street also held a Christmas quiz, and one source claimed that Dan Rosenfield, Johnson’s incoming chief of staff, took part.

    There are suggestions that up to seven lockdown-breaking gatherings took place in November and December, including government staff leaving dos, and alleged parties at Johnson’s flat, the Cabinet Office and the Department for Education....

    ....It has since emerged that on December 14 about 25 people gathered in the basement of Conservative headquarters in Westminster. The event was organised by the campaign team of Shaun Bailey, who was running for mayor of London. Bailey attended the party, at which people wore festive hats and he received a Lego set as a Christmas present from a donor.

    Revellers damaged a door and staff were disciplined. No 10 aides were said to have been among those present.

    At the time London was in the Tier 2 level of restrictions, meaning all socialising indoors between households was banned. Hours before the party Matt Hancock, then the health secretary, gave a news conference announcing that the capital would move into Tier 3.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/christmas-party-row-tories-held-raucous-second-event-2nn8mp9nw

    Why didn't CCHQ report these toerags to the police?
  • DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    This is the most important news of the week.

    Verstappen warned, 'Abu Dhabi steward not a fan of Max'

    https://www.gpblog.com/en/amp/100835/verstappen-warned-steward-abu-dhabi-not-a-fan-of-max.html

    The other steward however once called Max the great white hope, and has a history of giving dodgy penalties to Lewis.

    Connolly is merely deemed 'biased' by Max fans because he penalises Max's nonsense.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,522
    edited December 2021
    DougSeal said:

    On topic I think it's easy to see how Boris recovers from this. He does nothing much, there are some bad headlines, maybe he loses a by-election or maybe he doesn't. Then he waits for another issue where the Tory press are back on his side, and the Tory press are back on his side.

    He has a trifecta to keep on side, the public, the Tory Press and his MPs. I think his hold on all three has gone and, in the case of the latter, it’s not coming back.
    They're connected, though. If he's got the press he can keep enough of the public to not look like an obvious election loser, and if he doesn't look like an obvious election loser then he'll keep his MPs.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773
    IshmaelZ said:

    algarkirk said:

    boulay said:

    In the small hours of this morning, as I have no life, I was mulling potential next leader for the Tories.

    For a while I’ve always believed/hoped Rishi would be a shoe-in. I have now come to the conclusion that if a change were to happen in next two months he won’t get it.

    Firstly I think he is in danger of being viewed as part of the problem now and too close to Boris. He’s been his COE and maybe some of the party will see him as complicit in all that’s going wrong on policy areas (obviously not wallpaper/parties/lies etc) and this will act against him - he could fight against Plan B, he’s possibly behind broken dreams of huge spending up north etc. I think if the storm passed and things were stable in six months and there was a change he would be back in the lead of the hunt but not now.

    Also against him is a potential perception that he is lightweight. He’s clearly very clever and slick but after Boris the party might be more inclined to a more sober and traditional leader. People like Wallace or even outsiders like tugendhat might have more gravitas and seem less tainted. Another factor in their favour is that if it does kick off in Ukraine then people will look at Rishi and wonder if he is the man for serious times when he would be better concentrating on his calculator.

    Truss could benefit as not having been in a senior post for long and being a bit different to the rest but again I’m not sure she has the gravitas that might be required where the party feels the need for a “reaction” to the clown show.

    Hunt could sneak in as detached from this govt (like a footballer who gets better the longer he doesn’t play when injured and you forget he wasn’t Messi when he did…) and has more weight to him although PMQs with him and Starker would be like watching a live action version of the woodentops.

    In Dr Who terms it’s picking Kenneth Branagh to replace Jodie Whittaker or choosing Sheridan Smith. In Bond terms it’s choosing Timothy Dalton to take over from Roger Moore or choosing to continue with the light humour bond.

    Time and timing is all. When Boris was appointed we had had a combination of dullness and (slightly unfair but that's politics) incompetence from Mrs T May. To be a combination of charisma, excitement and getting Brexit over the line made Boris the man of the hour.

    Boris still has charisma, but Brexit is over the line (though decades still to go really) he is not exciting politically, because Covid isn't exciting (unfair but that's politics) and plainly he isn't competent in general terms (outside getting Brexit over the line) and his reputation for probity is now nil.

    ATM no-one in his inner ring looks a safe choice because they are almost certain to be open to the sorts of allegations that have arisen and will arise once Boris's government ceases to have the protection of controlling the agenda (not very well)

    All of which makes Hunt look a better prospect than the betting suggests.
    Didn't look too charismatic any time yesterday.
    True of course.

    BTW Boris spent all yesterday talking stuff about 'repeated assurances'. Did SKS miss a trick by not asking from whom these assurances came? These assurances all exist in a cloud of anonymity.

    And you can't look charismatic when doing the two dreadful things Boris was doing yesterday: Apologising for everything everyone else, including his closest aides, had done without reserve; and making clear that everyone apart from himself might be found guilty and disciplined in the enquiry.

    Once you have to that degree failed to back your own people I think it is just a question of when, not if.

  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    I thought the official BetterTogether2 line was that the SNP had become a bunch of total softy lapdogs, uninterested in independence but merely seeking to retain cosy jobs? Please make up your minds.

    Oh… that’s your central office hotline ringing, you’d better slither off and answer it…
    It was HYUFD himself who recommended - to his credit - that website which mapped party views against each other, like Political Compass but a different one. Both those map the SNP and PC as almost as centrist as you can get with the Tories up in the ultra-violent catastrophe part of the graph. So much for extremist lunatics, which admittedly we must seem from his viewpoint - relatively speaking.
    Got the link?
  • Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Agreed. HYUFD is simply expressing support for his party. Disagreement should be civil. I know what it's like to experience a PB pile-on, cut him some slack people!

    I am a card carrying member of the #dirtbagleft (as typified by Chapo Trap House and Cum Town) so I utterly reject civility and liberalism. But, otherwise, you are right.
    So the bog-standard left merely reject liberalism, while the dirtbag left rejects civility plus liberalism. I see. 10/10 for honesty.
    I guess it depends what you mean by the left. I would describe myself as left wing but also liberal. In fact I think my official designation in one of those online political compass things was "libertarian socialist", a label I am broadly happy with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    I don't think HYUFD is polite. He might not use taboo words, but his robotic repetition of points, his refusal to engage in any meaningful discussion and his self-declared delight in upsetting anyone who disagrees with him mark him out as a lot less polite than most of our foul-mouthed posters.
    I will keep on here to annoy the likes of you then. The representation of pro Boris Tories on here is already small enough anyway compared to the country at large.

    I also thank Nick for his comments. I don't agree with him on barely anything but have always found him civil and engaging, certainly more so than many to the right of him including some so called PBTories who are in reality largely just Orange Book LDs
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503

    This is the most important news of the week.

    Verstappen warned, 'Abu Dhabi steward not a fan of Max'

    https://www.gpblog.com/en/amp/100835/verstappen-warned-steward-abu-dhabi-not-a-fan-of-max.html

    The same chief steward who gave him a meaningless 10s penalty for his dangerous driving last week, rather than a stop/go or a black flag?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    maaarsh said:

    On topic I think it's easy to see how Boris recovers from this. He does nothing much, there are some bad headlines, maybe he loses a by-election or maybe he doesn't. Then he waits for another issue where the Tory press are back on his side, and the Tory press are back on his side.

    Spot on. Right now if Boris was on fire I'd be too busy celebrating to piss on him, but it does feel like OGH is letting the wish be the father of the thought. In particularly the fact that people who he beat are discredited (by him, after having been successful figures prior to facing him) is really quite irrelevant.
    Naah, this is a Ceausescu, Mussolini, Louis XVI level implosion. Stick a fork in his arse, he's done.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025

    FF43 said:

    Noteworthy the severe reaction to Plan B in England. It is a slightly watered down version of what is already in place in Scotland. This is neither particularly onerous nor massively effective. If the aim is to avoid lockdown, you need to be somewhat more rigorous.

    People on here describing it as a "lockdown".

    It really isn't.
    The point of these interventions is to avoid lockdown. Vax passports allow venues to stay open safely, which would otherwise be closed, or there's no point to them. The problem with these measures (also in Scotland) is that they are half-baked. They don't control anything much, nor do they build people's confidence in using facilities, which is their purpose. It means the government falls back on vaccines as the only line of defence, plus eventually lockdown.

    A missed opportunity IMO. Some other countries have managed this better.
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    boulay said:

    In the small hours of this morning, as I have no life, I was mulling potential next leader for the Tories.

    For a while I’ve always believed/hoped Rishi would be a shoe-in. I have now come to the conclusion that if a change were to happen in next two months he won’t get it.

    Firstly I think he is in danger of being viewed as part of the problem now and too close to Boris. He’s been his COE and maybe some of the party will see him as complicit in all that’s going wrong on policy areas (obviously not wallpaper/parties/lies etc) and this will act against him - he could fight against Plan B, he’s possibly behind broken dreams of huge spending up north etc. I think if the storm passed and things were stable in six months and there was a change he would be back in the lead of the hunt but not now.

    Also against him is a potential perception that he is lightweight. He’s clearly very clever and slick but after Boris the party might be more inclined to a more sober and traditional leader. People like Wallace or even outsiders like tugendhat might have more gravitas and seem less tainted. Another factor in their favour is that if it does kick off in Ukraine then people will look at Rishi and wonder if he is the man for serious times when he would be better concentrating on his calculator.

    Truss could benefit as not having been in a senior post for long and being a bit different to the rest but again I’m not sure she has the gravitas that might be required where the party feels the need for a “reaction” to the clown show.

    Hunt could sneak in as detached from this govt (like a footballer who gets better the longer he doesn’t play when injured and you forget he wasn’t Messi when he did…) and has more weight to him although PMQs with him and Starker would be like watching a live action version of the woodentops.

    In Dr Who terms it’s picking Kenneth Branagh to replace Jodie Whittaker or choosing Sheridan Smith. In Bond terms it’s choosing Timothy Dalton to take over from Roger Moore or choosing to continue with the light humour bond.


    I'm enjoying your posts.

    "[Hunt vs] Starmer would be like watching a live action version of the woodentops". lol.

    You say Sunak is in danger of being viewed as part of the problem and too close to Boris - given that becoming leader requires winning over two constituencies, the MPs and the members, which do you see as the obstacle for Sunak in this regard?
  • My piss boils furthermore.

    Boris Johnson faces more questions about his team’s attitude towards coronavirus rules today after it emerged that Tory aides threw a raucous Christmas party and senior Downing Street staff held a quiz night.

    As anger grows among Tory MPs about an event held in No 10 on December 18 last year, The Times can disclose that Conservative Party staff danced and drank wine late into the night at another event that month.

    Senior advisers and officials working in Downing Street also held a Christmas quiz, and one source claimed that Dan Rosenfield, Johnson’s incoming chief of staff, took part.

    There are suggestions that up to seven lockdown-breaking gatherings took place in November and December, including government staff leaving dos, and alleged parties at Johnson’s flat, the Cabinet Office and the Department for Education....

    ....It has since emerged that on December 14 about 25 people gathered in the basement of Conservative headquarters in Westminster. The event was organised by the campaign team of Shaun Bailey, who was running for mayor of London. Bailey attended the party, at which people wore festive hats and he received a Lego set as a Christmas present from a donor.

    Revellers damaged a door and staff were disciplined. No 10 aides were said to have been among those present.

    At the time London was in the Tier 2 level of restrictions, meaning all socialising indoors between households was banned. Hours before the party Matt Hancock, then the health secretary, gave a news conference announcing that the capital would move into Tier 3.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/christmas-party-row-tories-held-raucous-second-event-2nn8mp9nw

    Why didn't CCHQ report these toerags to the police?

    They were too busy promoting them.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,355
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    Because most people are in favour of them. I have no strong view but as a politician would do the same.

    The work from home is not an order, but a request, if possible. The covid passport is importantly, a vax or test passport not a vax passport.
    Labour was in favour of Maastricht. Didn't stop them tactically voting against to make as much trouble for the Tories as possible.

    Also it is wrong to harm businesses but not then help them. And believe me these proposals will harm businesses.

    A pro-business party, as Labour now claims to be, would see this.
    I saw your post from last night about your daughter giving up the lease on her pub, it's sad but ultimately the right decision given everything that's happening! Has she considered a career in product management for a tech startup? The amount of crossover between running a business and managing a product is actually pretty big. The work environment is usually great too and most now offer full remote working if she doesn't want to move to London.
    Thank you for the suggestion. I'm not sure what's involved but will suggest she look into it. She wants to learn from others now though I expect she'll go back into business for herself one day.

    The lease on the pub was always only for 3 years and she agonised about whether to extend it. But in the end I think this is the right decision. It has been an incredibly tough time but I am very proud of what she has achieved. She has shown grace under pressure.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,298
    Dura_Ace said:



    Agreed. HYUFD is simply expressing support for his party. Disagreement should be civil. I know what it's like to experience a PB pile-on, cut him some slack people!

    I am a card carrying member of the #dirtbagleft (as typified by Chapo Trap House and Cum Town) so I utterly reject civility and liberalism. But, otherwise, you are right.
    I'd never heard of either, but a quick google suggests they're as much up their own arses as those they excoriate.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

  • Meanwhile, the big thing underpinning everything about the last decades, the reason most of us don't feel rich, rumbles on... How the hell does this get fixed by a government that wants to win the next election?

    New research showing 20% of *the country's entire wealth* is made up by the increase in house prices since 2000. Overwhelming benefitting older, richer people, particularly in London.

    And it's untaxed while we hammer young people with NICs and student loans increases.


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1468856688631504898?t=Y00JCOI_IMBaZXQv3ZIa3w&s=19
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    I thought the official BetterTogether2 line was that the SNP had become a bunch of total softy lapdogs, uninterested in independence but merely seeking to retain cosy jobs? Please make up your minds.

    Oh… that’s your central office hotline ringing, you’d better slither off and answer it…
    The word slither always makes me think of this Guy

    https://youtu.be/fxWHy4f9W30
    That is truly awful


  • Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    I agree with the last line - we can't be seen to be bullying people. And I don't think HYUFD feels bullied. He makes the same ctrl+v statements about Scotland or Polls or the Red Wall. Fact free, logic free, actually damaging to his own party and political perspective but he keeps going. Have to admire that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    I thought the official BetterTogether2 line was that the SNP had become a bunch of total softy lapdogs, uninterested in independence but merely seeking to retain cosy jobs? Please make up your minds.

    Oh… that’s your central office hotline ringing, you’d better slither off and answer it…
    It was HYUFD himself who recommended - to his credit - that website which mapped party views against each other, like Political Compass but a different one. Both those map the SNP and PC as almost as centrist as you can get with the Tories up in the ultra-violent catastrophe part of the graph. So much for extremist lunatics, which admittedly we must seem from his viewpoint - relatively speaking.
    Got the link?
    HAve managed to find both - possibly memory has blurred the two, but here they are
    https://www.politicalcompass.org and specifically https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2019
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    That "women with dicks" is an empty set.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here.
    The screenshots have been posted on here. (Not by me I hasten to add.)
    There is nothing I have posted on here which is not supported by most Tory members and most Tory voters now.


  • If Johnson does go it will highlight just how bereft of talent the Tories are. That Liz Truss is even close to being seriously considered as a contender tells you everything. There is nothing there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,910
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    I don't think HYUFD is polite. He might not use taboo words, but his robotic repetition of points, his refusal to engage in any meaningful discussion and his self-declared delight in upsetting anyone who disagrees with him mark him out as a lot less polite than most of our foul-mouthed posters.
    I will keep on here to annoy the likes of you then. The representation of pro Boris Tories on here is already small enough anyway compared to the country at large.

    I also thank Nick for his comments. I don't agree with him on barely anything but have always found him civil and engaging, certainly more so than many to the right of him including some so called PBTories who are in reality largely just Orange Book LDs
    I know your avatar was imposed from above, but how apt it is. Stay mulish old chap!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here.
    The screenshots have been posted on here. (Not by me I hasten to add.)
    There is nothing I have posted on here which is not supported by most Tory members now.

    Good for you. You are a bellwether. You move with the wind. Just what this country needs right now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited December 2021
    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    If Johnson does go it will highlight just how bereft of talent the Tories are. That Liz Truss is even close to being seriously considered as a contender tells you everything. There is nothing there.

    Whilst this is true, it's frankly just bringing them in to line with every Labour leadership contest since 1994. I remember when Cooper & Burnham were the serious mainstream candidates, and they just spent 4 weeks as rabbits in the headlights against magic grandpa.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 4,298
    edited December 2021
    So the Government's brilliant handling strategy this morning is:

    - I was as angry as anyone by seeing this appalling video

    - It was a resignation matter even if Allegra was merely answering a hypothetical question from a colleague, which I remain sure she was

    - I was so furious I asked unspecified people for solemn assurances

    - My annoyance was so burning that I forgot to ask these unnamed people what actually happened and the respect in which it complied with the rules

    They are compounding the offence of breaking the rules with taking the public for complete idiots.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here.
    The screenshots have been posted on here. (Not by me I hasten to add.)
    There is nothing I have posted on here which is not supported by most Tory members and most Tory voters now.


    Now *that* deserves a screenshot! 😄
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,908
    Stocky said:

    boulay said:

    In the small hours of this morning, as I have no life, I was mulling potential next leader for the Tories.

    For a while I’ve always believed/hoped Rishi would be a shoe-in. I have now come to the conclusion that if a change were to happen in next two months he won’t get it.

    Firstly I think he is in danger of being viewed as part of the problem now and too close to Boris. He’s been his COE and maybe some of the party will see him as complicit in all that’s going wrong on policy areas (obviously not wallpaper/parties/lies etc) and this will act against him - he could fight against Plan B, he’s possibly behind broken dreams of huge spending up north etc. I think if the storm passed and things were stable in six months and there was a change he would be back in the lead of the hunt but not now.

    Also against him is a potential perception that he is lightweight. He’s clearly very clever and slick but after Boris the party might be more inclined to a more sober and traditional leader. People like Wallace or even outsiders like tugendhat might have more gravitas and seem less tainted. Another factor in their favour is that if it does kick off in Ukraine then people will look at Rishi and wonder if he is the man for serious times when he would be better concentrating on his calculator.

    Truss could benefit as not having been in a senior post for long and being a bit different to the rest but again I’m not sure she has the gravitas that might be required where the party feels the need for a “reaction” to the clown show.

    Hunt could sneak in as detached from this govt (like a footballer who gets better the longer he doesn’t play when injured and you forget he wasn’t Messi when he did…) and has more weight to him although PMQs with him and Starker would be like watching a live action version of the woodentops.

    In Dr Who terms it’s picking Kenneth Branagh to replace Jodie Whittaker or choosing Sheridan Smith. In Bond terms it’s choosing Timothy Dalton to take over from Roger Moore or choosing to continue with the light humour bond.


    I'm enjoying your posts.

    "[Hunt vs] Starmer would be like watching a live action version of the woodentops". lol.

    You say Sunak is in danger of being viewed as part of the problem and too close to Boris - given that becoming leader requires winning over two constituencies, the MPs and the members, which do you see as the obstacle for Sunak in this regard?
    Thanks for the kind comment.

    Re Sunak I think that he loses MPs because there will be a group who think he’s too slick/flash, a group who are angry with decisions made by treasury and a group who don’t see why a young upstart who was COE “by accident/luck” should he leading them….

    I think there is also an element where having picked Boris and reaped the custard pie in face they will be looking at presenting a fresh face to the electorate - not a fresh face person but a “new style”. It’s a weird thing but the Tories can effectively give the UK a new govt without the hassle of an election as they can pivot to a different style as the ideology is very broad (something I feel is harder for Labour).

    I think the members would have picked Rishi at the drop of a hat a few months ago but I imagine some of the shine has worn off as difficult decisions are made and they might retreat to safety zone - I keep thinking of some campaigning slogan for someone like Wallace “a serious leader for serious times”…..!!
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    I don't think HYUFD is polite. He might not use taboo words, but his robotic repetition of points, his refusal to engage in any meaningful discussion and his self-declared delight in upsetting anyone who disagrees with him mark him out as a lot less polite than most of our foul-mouthed posters.
    I will keep on here to annoy the likes of you then. The representation of pro Boris Tories on here is already small enough anyway compared to the country at large.

    I also thank Nick for his comments. I don't agree with him on barely anything but have always found him civil and engaging, certainly more so than many to the right of him including some so called PBTories who are in reality largely just Orange Book LDs
    He was right that you are brave.

    Telling Tory voters that they are not true Tory voters and that their votes are not required is certainly Brave.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,050
    edited December 2021
    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    The most common kind of illegal opinion that I had in mind is incitement to commit violent acts that are currently criminal (if a Tory urged that we should all go and smash up Labour HQ, for instance, or vice versa) or whip up racial hatred.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Doesn't make him a discredited figure though. The Hitler is a Zionist stuff was post 2012 loss, in both elections he lost to Boris, Ken was a credible alternative and came pretty close. He was more credible than Shaun Bailey, for example.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,076
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
    I don't think everything Rod Liddle said at Durham South College was illegal, however it does seem close to equality Act.

    Durham is actually interesting as it seems to be two different sets of people with different arguments. The Free Speech are going - it's great how dare Mr Luckhurst be attacked while Durham University is going HOW many parts of his employment contract did he break and can we fix it before more students remove Durham as their first choice.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,677
    moonshine said:

    Don’t understand the love for Hunt. He was responsible for our pandemic preparedness plan, he was at one point the most reviled politician with the junior doctors contract renegotiation. And he comes across on camera a shifty weirdo, even if he might be very pleasant company in real life.

    His USP is being one of the few grown-ups in the room. And the one who put himself up against the clown the last time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,649
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here.
    The screenshots have been posted on here. (Not by me I hasten to add.)
    There is nothing I have posted on here which is not supported by most Tory members now.

    Good for you. You are a bellwether. You move with the wind. Just what this country needs right now.
    The key word being "now" in that statement with his ilk having chased the rest of us off for not passing their purity tests and not showing enough fealty to Boris.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noteworthy the severe reaction to Plan B in England. It is a slightly watered down version of what is already in place in Scotland. This is neither particularly onerous nor massively effective. If the aim is to avoid lockdown, you need to be somewhat more rigorous.

    People on here describing it as a "lockdown".

    It really isn't.
    The point of these interventions is to avoid lockdown. Vax passports allow venues to stay open safely, which would otherwise be closed, or there's no point to them. The problem with these measures (also in Scotland) is that they are half-baked. They don't control anything much, nor do they build people's confidence in using facilities, which is their purpose. It means the government falls back on vaccines as the only line of defence, plus eventually lockdown.

    A missed opportunity IMO. Some other countries have managed this better.
    In this wave very few European countries have gone into “lockdown” of the type we experienced last winter. Austria for a short while, bookended by lockdowns for the unvaccinated. Belgium has had case rates far in excess of ours for weeks and have not done so. Switzerland’s U.K. normalised case rate is touching 100,000 and the ski lifts are still open. All countries, not just ours, are desperate to avoid them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,677
    edited December 2021
    Cyclefree said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    His decided strategy is to treat it like a war situation and not give fuel to any suggestion that he isn't supporting the government in 'fighting' the virus.
    Bloody daft. This is not a war. It's a public health emergency. You do what is necessary from a public health perspective balanced with the need not to destroy the economy.

    These measures will achieve fuck all re public health and will harm some businesses. And have almost certainly been brought in to save the PM's sorry arse.

    Labour should be giving that arse a brutal kicking not an extra cushion for it to sit on.
    Certainly in their position I'd be examining whether changing circumstances might merit a change of plan.

    Given Labour's general and structural weakness (and its likely poor result in next week's by-election) they may of course have decided that leaving the clown in place as a lame duck is better than pushing him over and risking our getting someone better. Labour is no more interested in doing the 'right thing' for the country's better governance than are the Tories, when it comes up against their own political interest, after all.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    When did I say that?
  • maaarsh said:

    If Johnson does go it will highlight just how bereft of talent the Tories are. That Liz Truss is even close to being seriously considered as a contender tells you everything. There is nothing there.

    Whilst this is true, it's frankly just bringing them in to line with every Labour leadership contest since 1994. I remember when Cooper & Burnham were the serious mainstream candidates, and they just spent 4 weeks as rabbits in the headlights against magic grandpa.
    Brown did for alternative talent through the nineties and noughties so that he could claim the crown. Labour haven't really recovered from that yet.

    Bozza has spent the last decade doing much the same, in a more Etonian way, for much the same reason. It could well have much the same consequence.
  • So the Government's brilliant handling strategy this morning is:

    - I was as angry as anyone by seeing this appalling video

    - It was a resignation matter even if Allegra was merely answering a hypothetical question from a colleague, which I remain sure she was

    - I was so furious I asked unspecified people for solemn assurances

    - My annoyance was so burning that I forgot to ask these unnamed people what actually happened and the respect in which it complied with the rules

    They are compounding the offence of breaking the rules with taking the public for complete idiots.

    There are two issues:

    1. They believe the public truly are complete idiots. "We've had enough of Experts", "Brexit Means Brexit" and "Fuck Business" have been very successful for them in the recent past. They think that as people don't know the detail of how things work (which is handy as neither do they) that they are thick as opposed to merely ill-informed and uninterested
    2. They think that because 1 they can say some truly stupid things and the thicko voters will not only accept them they'll support them for saying so.

    In reality voters aren't stupid - they're just ill-informed and disinterested in how complicated stuff works. But they know things that they do and they see and lockdown rules banning gatherings was simple enough and impacted them directly. So they aren't buying the bullshit on offer because they know its bullshit...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    Good morning all.

    Several days ago I predicted that we would find ourselves in a position where you can't meet your colleagues in the office but you can meet them in the pub.

    And lo and behold, that's where we'll be next week.

    The Telegraph helpfully points this absurdity out in its front page headline.

    The issue will always be there when there are many levers that can be pulled to try to reduce transmission. It is easy to say why this and not that? Hard to justify on a case by case basis, but ultimately it is the effect of the whole on transmission that counts.

    Something others have alluded to is the chilling effect on peoples behaviour. A few more restrictions, which personally will have no impact on my life, will lead to parties being cancelled, fewer people going out etc.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,073
    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    The BBC reckons there are now 2,500 Omicron infections a day, and that the number is doubling every 3 days. They say that if that rate of growth continued, it would mean more than 100,000 infections a day. In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections.

    Perhaps the Opposition is supporting these measures because they can see that doing nothing would be catastrophic all round, including for businesses?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,677
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Oh I don't think he has any realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate.

    He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
    I think HYUFD is brave, polite and honest, and I'm not inclined to criticise him for posting here or for seeking to interfere with his career. I don't think we should get to a point where people are afraid to say what they think on PB because someone might try to use it against them. We need a range of views, and should accept that some of them will be ones we strongly disagree with.
    I don't think HYUFD is polite. He might not use taboo words, but his robotic repetition of points, his refusal to engage in any meaningful discussion and his self-declared delight in upsetting anyone who disagrees with him mark him out as a lot less polite than most of our foul-mouthed posters.
    The representation of pro Boris Tories on here is already small enough anyway compared to the country at large.
    Well, you can't fault your hero for his attempts to bring the two into closer alignment!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    DougSeal said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Noteworthy the severe reaction to Plan B in England. It is a slightly watered down version of what is already in place in Scotland. This is neither particularly onerous nor massively effective. If the aim is to avoid lockdown, you need to be somewhat more rigorous.

    People on here describing it as a "lockdown".

    It really isn't.
    The point of these interventions is to avoid lockdown. Vax passports allow venues to stay open safely, which would otherwise be closed, or there's no point to them. The problem with these measures (also in Scotland) is that they are half-baked. They don't control anything much, nor do they build people's confidence in using facilities, which is their purpose. It means the government falls back on vaccines as the only line of defence, plus eventually lockdown.

    A missed opportunity IMO. Some other countries have managed this better.
    In this wave very few European countries have gone into “lockdown” of the type we experienced last winter. Austria for a short while, bookended by lockdowns for the unvaccinated. Belgium has had case rates far in excess of ours for weeks and have not done so. Switzerland’s U.K. normalised case rate is touching 100,000 and the ski lifts are still open. All countries, not just ours, are desperate to avoid them.
    Frankly even if Omicron is as bad as all that, the emergence of a new variant that bad so quickly after the last one basically discredits the 'lockdown and wait it out' approach. Muddling on with as much normality as possible is the only game in town if this can keep happening.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
    The thing is though a lot of the Tory support that Johnson cajoles to don't give a rat's arse if Scotland leave the Union. I hear this from the strongest reactionary Brexiteers that I know. I despair of it but it is a common view.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    When did I say that?
    22 November 2007: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    The BBC reckons there are now 2,500 Omicron infections a day, and that the number is doubling every 3 days. They say that if that rate of growth continued, it would mean more than 100,000 infections a day. In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections.

    Perhaps the Opposition is supporting these measures because they can see that doing nothing would be catastrophic all round, including for businesses?
    It was doubling every 2 days yesterday. If this rate of doubling slow down continues, Omicron will never double again.

    2 can play at childishly simple projections.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,050
    HYUFD said:



    There is nothing I have posted on here which is not supported by most Tory members and most Tory voters now.

    Probably true, and that's the other reason I'm happy to see HYUFD posting. Many floating voters here will, I think, feel that a Government led by Starmer is preferable to one driven by the thought processes that HYUFD eloquently expresses.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,025
    edited December 2021
    moonshine said:

    Don’t understand the love for Hunt. He was responsible for our pandemic preparedness plan, he was at one point the most reviled politician with the junior doctors contract renegotiation. And he comes across on camera a shifty weirdo, even if he might be very pleasant company in real life.

    The point, which should have been clear to all since 2019, is that Johnson specifically is unfit to be leader, and any somewhat plausible other politician would be better. This group most obviously includes Starmer, but there are several Conservatives that could be considered. Hunt is one.

    By the way, is BDS still a thing? It got a lot of airtime on here.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    isam said:

    ‘Clearly an electoral liability’ because they’re 4% behind in a poll in the midst of a crisis is stronging it I’d say

    an electoral liability because he's severely accident prone and his popularity is dropping like a stone.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,076
    In least surprising news for a long time


    Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    And on today of all days - Electoral Commission has just announced it's fined the Tory Party because it broke the rules over declaring the cash for the Downing Street flat...

    although the fact the Tory party have been fined and not an individual is a bit of a surprise.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,592
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
    The thing is though a lot of the Tory support that Johnson cajoles to don't give a rat's arse if Scotland leave the Union. I hear this from the strongest reactionary Brexiteers that I know. I despair of it but it is a common view.
    I’d agree. The Prevailing view I get is if they go it’s a shame but so be it. Personally if Scotland gained Indy I couldn’t care less. Sick of hearing about it to be honest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    What is an "illegal opinion"? It can't mean an opinion that would be illegal to put into effect - like that face coverings should always be discretionary or that the urban speed limit should be 35 mph. Which are the opinions that it is against the law to hold? This is a genuine question.

    Anything Rod Liddle says at Durham Students’ Union, or Dave Chappelle on stage at a comedy club?
    I don't think everything Rod Liddle said at Durham South College was illegal, however it does seem close to equality Act.

    Durham is actually interesting as it seems to be two different sets of people with different arguments. The Free Speech are going - it's great how dare Mr Luckhurst be attacked while Durham University is going HOW many parts of his employment contract did he break and can we fix it before more students remove Durham as their first choice.
    It very sad, that university authorities now appear to have a problem with inviting speakers who challenge the viewpoint of some of the students.

    Isn’t having your horizons opened, and your views challenged, supposed to be the whole point of university?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738

    HYUFD said:



    There is nothing I have posted on here which is not supported by most Tory members and most Tory voters now.

    Probably true, and that's the other reason I'm happy to see HYUFD posting. Many floating voters here will, I think, feel that a Government led by Starmer is preferable to one driven by the thought processes that HYUFD eloquently expresses.
    If the element of Starmer's Party dropped the identity politics stuff and were convincing on the economics side and in wanting what's best for this country's interests then LP would be a shoe-in I think. I honestly think that Starmer is getting there and I wouldn't have said that a few months ago.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,526



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    I agree with the last line - we can't be seen to be bullying people. And I don't think HYUFD feels bullied. He makes the same ctrl+v statements about Scotland or Polls or the Red Wall. Fact free, logic free, actually damaging to his own party and political perspective but he keeps going. Have to admire that.
    Well quite. Around 95% of the time I don´t agree with HYFUD. Much of what he says is, in my opinion, provable nonsense. However I will defend to the death his right to spout such nonsense.

    I actively loathe those who, for whatever reason, seek to cancel or silence views that they disagree with. When I was a kid we used to say that "say what you like, its a free country", and I stand by that ideal. Those on right or left who set standards for a certain kind of ThoughtCrime are dangerous and should be strongly opposed. In my opinion the acid test is not opinions but actions, and the law should prevent certain actions, but as far as freedom of thought and freedom of expression is concerned, the balance should be permissive, if not completely libertarian. I fear that much legislation on "Hate speech" strays too far into restricting freedom of thought and the state should have no business legislating on opinions unless they are a clear and active threat to the Queen´s Peace.
  • DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was hardly a big deal for Johnson to beat Livingstone and Corbyn - both totally discredited figures.

    I'd dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008, he was the odds on favourite.
    Nah - he wasn’t

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls
    Yes he was. The campaign began in 2007. Your chart literally begins with Ken having a substantial lead over Boris.

    That Boris overturned that lead is to Boris's credit, it doesn't belittle Ken.

    @MikeSmithson was talking about Ken Livingstone's third term being possibly a "certainty": https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/22/will-this-make-kens-3rd-term-a-certainty/

    "Betfair now have a market on the mayoralty. Ken is the 0.58/1 favourite which looks like good value." - Very odd way to speak about a "totally discredited figure"
    Erm…we’re not talking about 2007. Max said “I’d dispute that Ken was discredited in 2008”. Johnson took a lead in early 2008 and maintained it. Read the thread you’re replying to.
    Yes and the 2008 campaign began in 2007. I would include December 2007 as part of the 2008 campaign, wouldn't you?

    But even if you exclude that, Ken was still betting favourite on 1/1/2008.
    FFS. Would you like some help with those goalposts? Moving them seems quite a struggle.
    No movement, I literally said 2007 so its not like I was trying to be obtuse.

    That Boris tore apart the man that @MikeSmithson was calling a certainty and a value favourite is to his own credit.
    At no point in 2008 was Livingstone odds on favourite. Even on 1/1/2008 (my 34th birthday) he wasn’t odds on. That is literally the only point I was making. You’re building straw men.
    Wrong. The start of 2008 is when OGH started to recognise Boris was the one which was value, but the markets still had Livingstone as odds-on favourite.

    2nd January 2008: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/01/02/yougov-has-ken-just-1-ahead/

    "The poll margin of just one percent is not reflected in the betting where Ken is the the 0.54/1 favourite with Boris on 1.52/1. Johnson would now seem to be the value bet."

    Do you accept 0.54/1 on 2nd January 2008 is an odds-on favourite in 2008? Do you care to admit I was correct?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    Because most people are in favour of them. I have no strong view but as a politician would do the same.

    The work from home is not an order, but a request, if possible. The covid passport is importantly, a vax or test passport not a vax passport.
    Labour was in favour of Maastricht. Didn't stop them tactically voting against to make as much trouble for the Tories as possible.

    Also it is wrong to harm businesses but not then help them. And believe me these proposals will harm businesses.

    A pro-business party, as Labour now claims to be, would see this.
    I saw your post from last night about your daughter giving up the lease on her pub, it's sad but ultimately the right decision given everything that's happening! Has she considered a career in product management for a tech startup? The amount of crossover between running a business and managing a product is actually pretty big. The work environment is usually great too and most now offer full remote working if she doesn't want to move to London.
    Thank you for the suggestion. I'm not sure what's involved but will suggest she look into it. She wants to learn from others now though I expect she'll go back into business for herself one day.

    The lease on the pub was always only for 3 years and she agonised about whether to extend it. But in the end I think this is the right decision. It has been an incredibly tough time but I am very proud of what she has achieved. She has shown grace under pressure.
    Her experience would have made a great Clarkson's Farm-type docu-series.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    Taz said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
    The thing is though a lot of the Tory support that Johnson cajoles to don't give a rat's arse if Scotland leave the Union. I hear this from the strongest reactionary Brexiteers that I know. I despair of it but it is a common view.
    I’d agree. The Prevailing view I get is if they go it’s a shame but so be it. Personally if Scotland gained Indy I couldn’t care less. Sick of hearing about it to be honest.
    I'd be more than sad. A punch to the gut.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 3,022



    Honestly Nick?!? Being a vocal fan of Franco, advocating armed invasion of Scotland and cheering police brutality against voting grannies is OK with a former Labour MP? I thought better of you and your party.

    I'm in favour of freedom of speech, so long as the opinions expressed are legal. If they're expressed politely, as HYUFD does, so much the better (I don't think I've heard him on the subject of brutality to grannies). As you'd expect, I disagree with almost everything he says (except his judgement on polls which is often quite sharp), but I like that he's willing to say what he thinks. None of us on PB should feel cowed.
    I agree with you let's be polite (I know I'm not always), and HYUFD, to his credit, usually is. But is he honest?

    It seems to me he has a pattern of repeatedly posting misinformation, and never admitting it when people point this out - rather he just repeats more misinformation.

    For example here
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3660323#Comment_3660323

    where he claims a poll showing 46.5% support for Scottish independence means a 5% drop in support for independence since the referendum (where 44.7% voted for independence).

    Isn't this dishonest? It is certainly understandably frustrating for other people.

    There are a ton of other examples.

    This is apart from some of the views expressed being beyond the pale, and I understand why people don't feel like respecting them. But remaining loyal to Johnson through the latest scandal because he is an election winner seems reasonable - everybody knew he was a compulsive liar before he became PM.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,212
    HYUFD said:

    I also thank Nick for his comments. I don't agree with him on barely anything but have always found him civil and engaging, certainly more so than many to the right of him including some so called PBTories who are in reality largely just Orange Book LDs

    As someone broadly of the social liberal persuasion, yes, I would agree with you that most Orange Book LDs are basically just Tories.
  • Meanwhile, in the Chinese property market, Evergrande has defaulted:

    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1468869883513344002
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,054
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Why is Starmer voting for these stupid restrictions? He should say that Labour will only vote for them provided there is financial support for all businesses affected by the order to work from home and vax passports.

    The BBC reckons there are now 2,500 Omicron infections a day, and that the number is doubling every 3 days. They say that if that rate of growth continued, it would mean more than 100,000 infections a day. In fact it would mean more than 400,000 infections a day, and you can probably double that again because their calculation ignores the differences between positive tests and infections.

    Perhaps the Opposition is supporting these measures because they can see that doing nothing would be catastrophic all round, including for businesses?
    Thanks Chris. So your view is that we are due for 800,000 omicron infections per day.

    Do you have a date for reaching that and would you be open to a modest wager on it?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    edited December 2021
    Taz said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
    The thing is though a lot of the Tory support that Johnson cajoles to don't give a rat's arse if Scotland leave the Union. I hear this from the strongest reactionary Brexiteers that I know. I despair of it but it is a common view.
    I’d agree. The Prevailing view I get is if they go it’s a shame but so be it. Personally if Scotland gained Indy I couldn’t care less. Sick of hearing about it to be honest.
    For me it’s not so much I couldn’t care less, clearly there would be some emotions involved, it’s more that if the people of Scotland wanted to leave hanging on would be far worse. What frustrates me at the moment is that, hand on heart, no one can say with any certainty how a referendum would go - those that do are either deluded or lying,
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,604
    @PippaCrerar
    “EarHearing from two separate sources that Govt is considering bringing recess forward two days to Tuesday.

    Only sketchy business has been sent out for next week - House rising could be announced on day.

    It would avoid another tricky PMQs - plus get plotting Tory MPs out of SW1”

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468874215344459776

    Does WhatsApp not work outside SW1?
  • So the Government's brilliant handling strategy this morning is:

    - I was as angry as anyone by seeing this appalling video

    - It was a resignation matter even if Allegra was merely answering a hypothetical question from a colleague, which I remain sure she was

    - I was so furious I asked unspecified people for solemn assurances

    - My annoyance was so burning that I forgot to ask these unnamed people what actually happened and the respect in which it complied with the rules

    They are compounding the offence of breaking the rules with taking the public for complete idiots.

    There are two issues:

    1. They believe the public truly are complete idiots. "We've had enough of Experts", "Brexit Means Brexit" and "Fuck Business" have been very successful for them in the recent past. They think that as people don't know the detail of how things work (which is handy as neither do they) that they are thick as opposed to merely ill-informed and uninterested
    2. They think that because 1 they can say some truly stupid things and the thicko voters will not only accept them they'll support them for saying so.

    In reality voters aren't stupid - they're just ill-informed and disinterested in how complicated stuff works. But they know things that they do and they see and lockdown rules banning gatherings was simple enough and impacted them directly. So they aren't buying the bullshit on offer because they know its bullshit...
    I think you are kidding yourself. Obviously it depends on your definition of "stupid", but the idea that those of us who are not politicians should dance around pretending that the population has some magical reserve of wisdom, when that is not born out by facts, either in this country or anywhere else. In reality a lot of voters are stupid. Boris Johnson relies on this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Liberal Remainers have wanted Boris out since day 1 since he is by far the most charismatic figure to hold the Leave coalition together which won the biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher in 2019. Remove Boris and it could be much harder for the Tories to stay in power after 10 years and keep the Redwall.

    Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.

    If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since

    You say "over the LDs" but LP is second party in this seat by a margin, 2019: 63/22/10%.

    If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.

    Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
    Hahaha. You are talking to the man who thought we should use tanks on Scotland if they dare to vote to leave the Union and was cheerleading the Spanish police beating up Grannies for daring to vote. You could have the army shooting down students in the street and he would still be cheerleading this bunch of lunatics.
    And the most frightening aspect is that he is not some lone nutter on an obscure blog, but an elected Conservative councillor who has a realistic chance of being a parliamentary candidate. In any healthy democracy such unpleasant extremists would be expelled from a mainstream political party.
    Says a supporter of the Scottish National Party, a party filled with extremist lunatics
    How the Union was lost.

    https://pbfcomics.com/comics/deeply-held-beliefs/
    The Union will only be lost by giving in to you lot
    The thing is though a lot of the Tory support that Johnson cajoles to don't give a rat's arse if Scotland leave the Union. I hear this from the strongest reactionary Brexiteers that I know. I despair of it but it is a common view.
    2019 Conservative voters though oppose allowing an indyref2 by 47% to 28% so by refusing it Boris does not need to worry about selling the Union again to Scots as union matters are reserved to Westminster.

    50% of 2019 Labour voters back allowing an indyref2 though. So it will be for a future Labour government to have to sell the Union to Scots again if it allows an indyref2, it would not be Boris' problem

    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1468184100116873219?s=20
  • ATTENTION PHILLIP THOMPSON

    Source the comment you attributed to me about Livingston or else you will get banned.
This discussion has been closed.