Categories
It’s hard to see how Johnson recovers from this – politicalbetting.com
It’s hard to see how Johnson recovers from this – politicalbetting.com
The big question now for Conservative MP’s is whether they think the party can recover if Johnson stays as leader. My view and I’m sure that is shared by many on the site is that there is a point of no return and that has been reached.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Getting concerned about a mere 4% Labour poll lead in midterm would be absurd when even Kinnock for most of 1990 and Ed Miliband in 2012 both had 10%+ leads midterm and Blair had 20%+ leads by the end of 1994.
If the Tories held North Shropshire it would ironically now be a triumph for Boris. The first Tory by election hold over the LDs since Witney in 2016, the Tories having lost Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnor and Chesham and Amersham to the LDs in by elections since
http://news.sky.com/story/johnsons-authority-and-credibility-are160draining-away-and-more-heads-might-have-to-roll-to-save-his-12490422
First it was that Labour is 20 points behind. That wasn’t enough.
Then Labour was tied. It wasn’t enough.
Then Starmer’s ratings were behind Johnson’s. It wasn’t enough.
Now Labour is ahead. But it still isn’t enough.
It never will be enough for certain people.
Of course, if one of the mutts were to develop rabies ......
No! One learns on PB. Not DIRECTLY from the cow, I should have said: dispensed from some refrigerated tank like Coke at the bar, with a tap.
Hi
Interesting name
This will come to be SKS' biggest error. Boring fine, no charisma so what, wooden yes. But supporting the government in vote after vote after vote - unforgiveable.
I think the Tories reputation for regicide has often been overstated simply because of the memory of Thatcher's brutal removal so it is hard to say if they will have the wit to grasp the nettle now. In addition there are a fair few on the government payroll and their needs to be an almighty clear out of inadequates. They will also be aware they cannot trust the membership not to impose another lunatic on them so a coronation may be in order.
Game over.
Which is why we can say with high levels of confidence that there will be more damaging revelations. The pattern is drop a bomb, fan the flames, let the outrage simmer, drop the next bomb. Because the PM is such a likeable trustworthy collegiate fellow he has made a whole stack of enemies who are now happy to keep burning the supports out underneath him.
I'm not sure how this ends yet. It would take something utterly outrageous for Johnson to have to resign and the Good News for fans of comedy is there are several things that could do it. There remains the stench over donations to pay for Carrie's his flat refurb, the stench over public money to his mistress, the stench of mysterious awards of vast contracts to inexperienced tiny companies who just so happen to be Tories etc etc etc.
Even if one of them doesn't finish him off, the bang bang bang of all these bombs going off must do eventually, especially now that all the populist stuff is gone and instead its cancel Christmas and here's your fuck off huge tax rise.
However if he doesn't go then it depends how the next few months go. If we get through the winter without the NHS collapsing and without any more restrictions than Plan B, if unforced errors like Paterson and partygate can be stopped, if the booster program works, if the rest of Europe enters lockdown but the UK doesn't, then Boris could still win the next election with the last couple of months being as transitory as Blair's fuel protests in 2000.
And as for the Cons' electoral chances, since the clearout and reimagining of the Party after Boris won they would have to choose someone pretty sensible to take over and I'm none too sure that person exists.
There have been unattributed quotes on Twitter from Senior Tories, but until they go pubic, he may remain safe for the time being. Haven't yet seen any PPSs standing aside to spend more time on the back either. Perhaps a storm might be unleashed after the weekend, or perhaps not.
The other political parties need to be certain that the press can't find anything on their leading figures hosting parties, events and celebrations in the run up to Christmas.
* I'm not happy that Christmas was difficult for so many last year, but am still surprised that so many people kept that celebration secret for so long.
That Stratton resignation was a difficult fap but I got through it.
The Telegraph is quite the read this morning! 🧐
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1468850814571712512
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/boris-johnson-may-not-recover-double-covid-catastrophe/
Ed Miliband polled 15% leads. Was that enough? Did he become Prime Minister?
Jeremy Corbyn polled 10% leads. Was that enough? Did he become Prime Minister?
If you think that while the government is mired in scandal that Keir Starmer's Labour polling a 4% lead versus Corbyn's 10% lead he polled is "enough" then please rest on your laurels.
"You mean to say you could have told everyone about the party at any time???"
"No, not at any time! Only when it was funny!"
(Only joking, welcome to PB).
Conservatives have fallen about a point a month and Labour have risen about half a point a month, fairly consistently since June.
As long as that continues, that's a big Labour lead in perfectly good time.
And is there any reason for the current trend not to continue?
I don't think it's needed, but you simply can't have a govt in this position in a developing pandemic now.
If the Conservatives manage to hold the seat comfortably at the end of all this then they'll be satisfied. If the majority is cut to about two votes, not so much.
Although waking up to that score spoiled my enjoyment of having had a decent night's sleep.
There was a clear political consensus that England was going to vote Tory to get Brexit done. That compact held all the way through Brexit and out the other side as the government tempted people with shiny shiny. Allegations were something that could be ignored because shiny shiny
Now that we're deep into cuts and taxy taxy the compact is less secure. Stories that did the rounds 6-12 months back (PPE contracts as an example) and didn't make an impact are now rocket fuel for a sleaze story that isn't slowing down.
So it isn't about any poll you want to look at now whether its the one showing Con +2 or Lab +4. Its that the clear and consistent Tory high base has crumbled and the lead is collapsing into a deficit.
This is how it ends. The government being able to restrict freedoms at will for any number of reasons including but not limited to doggies in Afghan, booze ups in No.10 and oh yes, a virus that has to date infected 0.000016% of the population.
And just wait until Lab gets in. They have supported and wanted further restrictions all along the way.
And we the British public have tolerated and encouraged it.
See too Labour, after Blair was pushed out it has lost 4 general elections in a row
A little below 10% of the entire population potentially subject to removal of their citizenship. It is an incredibly dangerous and irresponsible piece of legislation.
"Give us the exact rules we want or we'll make sure there are no rules at all" isn't a plausible threat.
If CP does squeak it and tactical voting means that LP loses its deposit then Johnson has a couple of reasons to be very happy I agree.
Your posts are unremittingly in support of Johnson for the sole reason that he wins elections. I'm curious though - aren't you concerned at all about the directions that this administration is going in, for example the authoritarian direction including the bill to create second class citizens in this country?
Magdalena Andersson (S), our first woman PM, gives her party a big boost, to 29% (+4).
All other changes in VI too small to be statistically reliable.
Government (S) and C&S parties:
Social Democrats (S) 29% (+4)
Left Party 10% (-1)
Centre Party 8% (-1)
Greens 4% (-1)
Opposition:
Moderates 21% (-2)
Sweden Democrats 19% (nc)
Christian Democrats 5% (+1)
Liberals 3% (nc)
Novus/SVT today
So what's new? What's different to the principle that Blair already made the law here?
Also can someone be stripped of citizenship solely because of eligibility for dual citizenship? Or are there other requirements too, like they're a threat to the country or a terrorist etc? In which case again how is it any different to that which is already the law thanks to Blair?
Vaccines are far more of a problem when it comes to getting the public to obey the rules now.
Oh. No 10 yesterday denied he’d refused to go out to bat for the government and insisted he’d been stood down
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1468854730218684420
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1468853963630034944
However, you make a very good point about yesterday's announcements. Remember that earlier this week we were told that they do not have sufficient Omicron data to make any decisions, and it would be at least next week before they could do so.
Then Boris's Bunga Bunga Party became public knowledge. And suddenly "cripes, news conference this afternoon". Where they miraculously DO have the data, we have to do this, following the science etc.
It was noted on here how glum Whitty looked. That he said "this was a decision of the cabinet". THAT is the key point. They are not following the science - they are using it as a political shield for Liar again.
But it has to date been - we agree with and will vote for you. It will all come back to bite them when they try to become an opposition again because the charge will be - but you supported us consistently these past years why now do you think we've got it wrong when you thought we had it right then.
And it will stick.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/08/boris-johnson-may-not-recover-double-covid-catastrophe/
It was always ever the principle of lockdowns (do they work well of course they do) that I despised because lo and behold at some point instead of doing something that "I" agree with they will do something that I disagree with.
Plenty here on PB mocked me and @contrarian right up until the point their own red lines were breached at which point they said - ridiculous: no more lockdowns. But by that time they had ceded the ground to the government because right from the beginning they allowed them to do this.
And lo here we are.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/15/liberal-democracy-will-biggest-casualty-pandemic/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter
He has a chance of being selected as one followed by rapid removal as a few posters on here inform the constituency of his posts on here. His views that abortion should be a political rather than personal moral decision would I suspect be enough for his removal - I can see about 80% of the (female) population voting instantly for anyone else once that was known.
Socialdemokraterna 111 mandat Social Democrat government
Vänsterpartiet 38 mandat Left Party C&S
Centerpartiet 29 mandat Centre Party C&S
Opposition: 171 legislators
Moderaterna 81 mandat Moderates
Sverigedemokraterna 72 mandat Sweden Democrats
Kristdemokraterna 18 mandat Christian Democrats
(Greens and Liberals both fail to return to parliament.)
https://www.svt.se/special/valjarbarometern/
As you can see, the next election (next September) is totally up for grabs.
But doesn't the sample of PB tell you how stupid that statement is. Almost the entire cohort of PB Tories want him gone. If he goes the LDs will lose the potential support of every single one of them back to the Tories.
I really cannot understand what is being proposed, and fear for my many relatives and friends who have perpetrated the crime of having non-GB parents or grandparents.
What? In contrast to you: a Franco-supporting/Martial law/Tinpot-dictator Remainer?
On the upside - people post their views and they are usually discovered early enough that wiser heads can take appropriate action before real harm is done to the institution*.
* - this doesn't always work as Durham University discovered last Friday - there though I suspect some Free Speech activists are going to discover Free Speech doesn't mean no consequences especially when you don't completely comprehend the University's Bullying policy and bypass some procedures.
Those who were worried would have stayed at home and those not worried would have gone out to party. WFH would have been available to those that wanted.
None of it needed to be enshrined in law. Oh but we must protect the NHS. Indeed we must. And with enough education and nudging it could have been protected. And then the relationship between the NHS and the people (the former to support the latter not the other way round) could have been firmly reiterated.