“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Perhaps Cummings is behind all this in the final analysis. This is all from exactly that crucial patch at the very end of his time working on the governmental payroll, after all, when the fallout was bad. He also seems exactly the kind of person to have been plotting, planning and timing his revenge for a whole year since, carefully assembling material from any of his supporters still inside no.10.
Yep. This feels like Classic Dom Cummings. Take your time, get it right
It’s too clever for mad Remainer mandarins and too subtle for Labour double agents
As to the question Why do it - Why did Gabrielle d’Annunzio fellate himself?
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
That's a two dose study and again, antibodies aren't the only measurable immune response.
Edit - binding efficiency dilution of that level will still give very good efficacy with three doses, especially against severe symptoms.
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Wasn't that for two jabs?
With three jabs it's ok.
From PB, December 2022: "As PM Sunak prepares to implement new social distancing measures against the more virulent Omega variant, scientists argue that those who have received their sixth dose of the vaccine have little to fear..."
And yet here we are on the precipice of another fucking lockdown. We have 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country, another 10m due by the end of the week. What the fuck have we been doing until now.
Fannying about.
History will be most unkind to Boris Johnson, particularly on Covid-19.
He pissed the summer months away when we could have vaccinated school children, there was no urgency on the booster jab until recently.
I'm sorry but the issue lies with the JCVI there, and possibly Hancock. They prevaricated. Only once Javid took over were they forced to make a choice, and even then flunked it. Johnson is a massive arse, and has done much wrong, but that one is unfair.
Hancock resigned in June, we had July and August to make a decision/overrule the JCVI.
Not really - you can't sanely vaccinate school children in school holidays (even this years).
Once we got to the end of June it was too late to sort out doing first vaccinations before the end of term (although I think I said at the time we needed to and should have done).
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
All those people with two fat jabs of summer Pfizer inside them should surely be cheered by the news that the immunity they have against Omicron is now so tiny it “cannot be measured”
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Perhaps Cummings is behind all this in the final analysis. This is all from exactly that crucial patch at the very end of his time working on the governmental payroll, after all, when the fallout was bad. He also seems exactly the kind of person to have been plotting, planning and timing his revenge for a whole year since, carefully assembling material from any of his supporters still inside no.10.
Yep. This feels like Classic Dom Cummings. Take your time, get it right
It’s too clever for mad Remainer mandarins and too subtle for Labour double agents
As to the question Why do it - Why did Gabrielle d’Annunzio fellate himself?
Who was this Gabrielle d’Annunzio fella?
Reminded instantly of the Bill Hicks joke, to which the punchline is “Ladies, you’d all be here on your own. Looking at an empty stage”.
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Wasn't that for two jabs?
With three jabs it's ok.
From PB, December 2022: "As PM Sunak prepares to implement new social distancing measures against the more virulent Omega variant, scientists argue that those who have received their sixth dose of the vaccine have little to fear..."
Well, at least once we hit Omega we'll know there can't be any more variants.
Come to think of it, what's to stop us just naming the next one Omega?
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Perhaps Cummings is behind all this in the final analysis. This is all from exactly that crucial patch at the very end of his time working on the governmental payroll, after all, when the fallout was bad. He also seems exactly the kind of person to have been plotting, planning and timing his revenge for a whole year since, carefully assembling material from any of his supporters still inside no.10.
Yep. This feels like Classic Dom Cummings. Take your time, get it right
It’s too clever for mad Remainer mandarins and too subtle for Labour double agents
As to the question Why do it - Why did Gabrielle d’Annunzio fellate himself?
In which case, the followup question is who does DC want instead?
Gove? Sunak? I can't see Truss being his type, somehow.
Or has he reached the stage where he doesn't care what happens afterwards, and it's all DIEBORISDIEDIEDIE?
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
That's a two dose study and again, antibodies aren't the only measurable immune response.
Edit - binding efficiency dilution of that level will still give very good efficacy with three doses, especially against severe symptoms.
Exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
So there are 2 journalists (minimum) reporting the same 3 shots of Pfizer test.
And yet here we are on the precipice of another fucking lockdown. We have 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country, another 10m due by the end of the week. What the fuck have we been doing until now.
Fannying about.
History will be most unkind to Boris Johnson, particularly on Covid-19.
He pissed the summer months away when we could have vaccinated school children, there was no urgency on the booster jab until recently.
I'm sorry but the issue lies with the JCVI there, and possibly Hancock. They prevaricated. Only once Javid took over were they forced to make a choice, and even then flunked it. Johnson is a massive arse, and has done much wrong, but that one is unfair.
Hancock resigned in June, we had July and August to make a decision/overrule the JCVI.
Not really - you can't sanely vaccinate school children in school holidays (even this years).
Once we got to the end of June it was too late to sort out doing first vaccinations before the end of term (although I think I said at the time we needed to and should have done).
Why not ? Sheffield vaccination centre had a 12 - 15 desk when I went to get my booster.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
And yet here we are on the precipice of another fucking lockdown. We have 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country, another 10m due by the end of the week. What the fuck have we been doing until now.
Fannying about.
History will be most unkind to Boris Johnson, particularly on Covid-19.
He pissed the summer months away when we could have vaccinated school children, there was no urgency on the booster jab until recently.
I'm sorry but the issue lies with the JCVI there, and possibly Hancock. They prevaricated. Only once Javid took over were they forced to make a choice, and even then flunked it. Johnson is a massive arse, and has done much wrong, but that one is unfair.
Hancock resigned in June, we had July and August to make a decision/overrule the JCVI.
If the government had overruled the JCVI at that stage there would have been hell to pay. The media would have screamed and screamed and scream, and risk of allowing anti-vax nonsense.
One better criticism, SAGE hardly met during that time, including nothing in August. The government should have been on them to say you need to use these months to formulate all the plans and models. Instead they waited until September / October to start doing this.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
No, a real first world problem is something like "Due to chef's tasters between courses, I lost track of which course I was on at Montrachet, when having the nine course lunch."
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
And the problem can be solved by getting the third.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 Will the CABSEC also be asked to investigate the *flat* party on Fri 13 Nov, the other flat parties, & the flat's 'bubble' policy...?
Perhaps Cummings is behind all this in the final analysis. This is all from exactly that crucial patch at the very end of his time working on the governmental payroll, after all, when the fallout was bad. He also seems exactly the kind of person to have been plotting, planning and timing his revenge for a whole year since, carefully assembling material from any of his supporters still inside no.10.
Yep. This feels like Classic Dom Cummings. Take your time, get it right
It’s too clever for mad Remainer mandarins and too subtle for Labour double agents
As to the question Why do it - Why did Gabrielle d’Annunzio fellate himself?
In which case, the followup question is who does DC want instead?
Gove? Sunak? I can't see Truss being his type, somehow.
Or has he reached the stage where he doesn't care what happens afterwards, and it's all DIEBORISDIEDIEDIE?
And yet here we are on the precipice of another fucking lockdown. We have 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country, another 10m due by the end of the week. What the fuck have we been doing until now.
Fannying about.
History will be most unkind to Boris Johnson, particularly on Covid-19.
He pissed the summer months away when we could have vaccinated school children, there was no urgency on the booster jab until recently.
I'm sorry but the issue lies with the JCVI there, and possibly Hancock. They prevaricated. Only once Javid took over were they forced to make a choice, and even then flunked it. Johnson is a massive arse, and has done much wrong, but that one is unfair.
Hancock resigned in June, we had July and August to make a decision/overrule the JCVI.
If the government had overruled the JCVI at that stage there would have been hell to pay.
One better criticism, SAGE hardly met during that time, including nothing in August. The government should have been on them to say you need to use these months to formulate all the plans and models. Instead they waited until September / October to start doing this.
SAGE acted like we had all the time in the world !
And yet here we are on the precipice of another fucking lockdown. We have 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country, another 10m due by the end of the week. What the fuck have we been doing until now.
Fannying about.
History will be most unkind to Boris Johnson, particularly on Covid-19.
He pissed the summer months away when we could have vaccinated school children, there was no urgency on the booster jab until recently.
I'm sorry but the issue lies with the JCVI there, and possibly Hancock. They prevaricated. Only once Javid took over were they forced to make a choice, and even then flunked it. Johnson is a massive arse, and has done much wrong, but that one is unfair.
Hancock resigned in June, we had July and August to make a decision/overrule the JCVI.
Not really - you can't sanely vaccinate school children in school holidays (even this years).
Once we got to the end of June it was too late to sort out doing first vaccinations before the end of term (although I think I said at the time we needed to and should have done).
Why not ? Sheffield vaccination centre had a 12 - 15 desk when I went to get my booster.
Both my daughters got their vaccinations at the local vaccination centre.
Despite a slightly odd woman trying to argue that 12 is too young to have the vaccine under the 12-15 grouping....
Whilst millions cancelled plans and had to be alone at Christmas, unable to celebrate, or worse unable to say goodbye to a dying loved one - the Prime Minister was breaking his own rules to allow a boozy party in No10.
They broke the rules. They lied. They're laughing at you.
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
Every time confident people claim COVID is over it comes back.
Covid is never going to be over, any more than the common cold or the flu is over.
Sane people are saying we need to live with Covid, not that its over.
People need to understand this is a part of our lives now and it will never be over. We can't hide behind the cushions waiting for it to be over and its safe to come out again. There is no "over" to this.
And yet here we are on the precipice of another fucking lockdown. We have 30m doses of Pfizer and Moderna in the country, another 10m due by the end of the week. What the fuck have we been doing until now.
Fannying about.
History will be most unkind to Boris Johnson, particularly on Covid-19.
He pissed the summer months away when we could have vaccinated school children, there was no urgency on the booster jab until recently.
I'm sorry but the issue lies with the JCVI there, and possibly Hancock. They prevaricated. Only once Javid took over were they forced to make a choice, and even then flunked it. Johnson is a massive arse, and has done much wrong, but that one is unfair.
Hancock resigned in June, we had July and August to make a decision/overrule the JCVI.
If the government had overruled the JCVI at that stage there would have been hell to pay.
One better criticism, SAGE hardly met during that time, including nothing in August. The government should have been on them to say you need to use these months to formulate all the plans and models. Instead they waited until September / October to start doing this.
SAGE acted like we had all the time in the world !
It does seem like they treated the summer like the civil servants treated the evacuation from Afghanistan....mañana
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
That link says they were looking at double dose, not triple:
Sigal's lab tested blood from 12 people who had been vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, according to a manuscript posted on the website for his lab. The preliminary data in the manuscript has not yet been peer reviewed ... He said the lab had not tested the variant against blood from people who had received a booster dose, because they are not available in South Africa yet.
My comments below about panicking on the basis of a pre-print that hasn’t even hit bioArXiv yet, quoting figures that you don’t know the meaning of, still applies.
Absolutely useless performance from Johnson, and a dreadful decision on handling by Number 10 this morning.
A non-apology apology and semi-reversal (effectively "we followed the rules but are now investigating whether we followed the rules") which merely served to keep the story alive and the anger bubbling. Either come clean or stand firm.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Yes but haven't you heard, if it's less dangerous it's worse.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
He's going to explode if it's Truss.
if Johnson does resign (I think not but let's play) who puts their hat in the ring?
Sunak definitely. Truss probably. Hunt, Gove and Javid possibly.
Say all five do. Which two get through the MP ballots?
I'm not sure but I'd go with Sunak and Hunt. That could make for a very close membership vote.
Hunt has to be extremely well placed. Outside the cabinet, where he might have been in involved in any Christmas parties etc, and his COVID response has been impressive, basically it was a lesson in what Labour should have been doing. Constructive criticism, with a reasonable suggestions attached in regrads how to tweak the approach.
Every time confident people claim COVID is over it comes back.
Covid is never going to be over, any more than the common cold or the flu is over.
Sane people are saying we need to live with Covid, not that its over.
People need to understand this is a part of our lives now and it will never be over. We can't hide behind the cushions waiting for it to be over and its safe to come out again. There is no "over" to this.
I agree, although, just as in 1919-20, there will come a point when it fades into the background and joins the collection of viruses that periodically give groups of people a few days off work, with potentially more serious impacts on some who are already vulnerable. That will feel like a return to normal.
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
And the problem can be solved by getting the third.
Can it? The news is mixed
On a brighter note Cookie is right to note the numbers out of SA show a slight slowing. This is crucial if it continues. Maybe Omicron is a firework that falls away quickly
That and much reduced virulence are our main hopes now. Otherwise it’s a winter lockdown
The maths can’t lie. 5m Brits have no jab, maybe 10m more have lesser protection. If we all get exposed to Omicron it means 50-100,000 in hospital over the winter? Or many more?
In that scenario we will be locked down so hard they will even have to cancel the planned Roman-themed toga-orgies in Downing Street
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Very much at odds with other study data that is emerging.
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
That link says they were looking at double dose, not triple:
Sigal's lab tested blood from 12 people who had been vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, according to a manuscript posted on the website for his lab. The preliminary data in the manuscript has not yet been peer reviewed ... He said the lab had not tested the variant against blood from people who had received a booster dose, because they are not available in South Africa yet. My comments below about panicking on the basis of a pre-print that hasn’t even hit bioArXiv yet, quoting figures that you don’t know the meaning of, still applies.
NB. We have at least two research studies being quoted in that article (possibly three?). None of which have been peer reviewed or even published in full yet.
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
This stuff is going to cut through in a way very little has in the Johnson era. It is hugely damaging. The issue is it’s impossible to get away from the charge that “they joked (and allegedly partied) whilst my relative died alone.”
Flat renovations and holidays and all the rest of it can be waved away as standard Westminster run-of-the-mill noise. This can’t.
It would not surprise me to see the Tories fall 10 points behind after this. There must be a lot of people looking at Labour now and saying “actually, they can’t do a worse job than the current lot.” I’m one of them.
The only consolation for the Tories is that we’re 2.5 years out from an election and they’ve got time to recover. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that Johnson is up to leading that recovery though. For the first time, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got rid next year.
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Wasn't that for two jabs?
With three jabs it's ok.
I really don't like the language of 'up to 37 time lower'. Does it mean 'one thirty-seventh of'? Also, 'up to' covers a wide range.
On another note, will be interesting to see the figures from South Africa today. WoW increases yesterday were much, much lower than previously - could this be the peak already, or just a reporting blip?
Too many don't iunderstand that 37x less does not mean what they think. And several studies are suggesting the vaccines will hold up, marginally worse than beta and delta. Boosters will make a huge difference, potentially returning the nAb levels to that of the original vaccine trials against original strain.
I wouldn't want to be unvaccinated right now though...
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
Boris will stay through to the general election in my view.
If he went and Truss was is the last 2 I would vote for whoever her opponent is.
However I would still stay in the party if she ended up leader, provided she kept her past republicanism quiet as she has done so far. If not I would vote RefUK
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
Stratton's short spell at number ten is going to be ignominious
The video is probably not too problematic for Johnson. However, the allegation that Johnson had a lockdown party on November 13th is very serious... unless he wasn't at that shindig either.
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
Boris will stay through to the general election in my view.
If he went and Truss was is the last 2 I would vote for whoever her opponent is.
However I would still stay in the party if she ended up leader, provided she kept her past republicanism quiet as she has done so far. If not I would vote RefUK
.
Is it essential to be a monarchist to be either a conservative or Conservative?
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Very much at odds with other study data that is emerging.
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Very much at odds with other study data that is emerging.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
And the problem can be solved by getting the third.
Plus, and it has to be said yet again, the immune system does not consist of the nAb's alone...
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
Yes, boostered or not is more the question. But as yet a clear settled picture on the Omicron threat hasn't emerged. Or if it has I've missed it. It's significantly more transmissible and to some extent evades vaccines and prior infection, this is all we know. Leaves many questions still o/s. The most important of these imo is - What is the booster efficacy vs hospitalization?
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
That's a two dose study and again, antibodies aren't the only measurable immune response.
Edit - binding efficiency dilution of that level will still give very good efficacy with three doses, especially against severe symptoms.
Exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
So there are 2 journalists (minimum) reporting the same 3 shots of Pfizer test.
Also, up to is doing the heavy lifting. This will be the greatest reduction seen, not the average.
On Betfair, Truss is now just shorter than Starmer (she's 5.6, he's 6) to be next PM. Sunak still favourite.
Sunak shorter than both of them? 😉
Stop belittingly Sunak.
Ha ha. It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris - is not great on detail - serial liar - has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly - not great when it comes to numbers - has a long list of enemies - worryingly colourful private life
Rishi - is very, very small
One of my favourite choices of picture as picture editor of PB.
Probably time to forget any notions of Keir Starmer being challenged for the Labour leadership. Unlike Johnson, it looks like the vast majority of his party's MPs are fully behind him. I suspect it's the same with the membership. He's had a very good few weeks.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
Boris will stay through to the general election in my view.
If he went and Truss was is the last 2 I would vote for whoever her opponent is.
However I would still stay in the party if she ended up leader, provided she kept her past republicanism quiet as she has done so far. If not I would vote RefUK
.
Is it essential to be a monarchist to be either a conservative or Conservative?
No.
But the only Tory in the village will tell you it is.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Fundamental misunderstanding
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
Boris Johnson’s spokespeople refuse multiple times to repeat their denial, said countless times over the last week, that there was no party held in No10 on December 18th.
Boris Johnson told by SNP he must resign over No 10 party
Starmer says he should say sorry (Boris not Blackford I think)
Suggesting Johnson no longer has the "moral authority" (to move to plan B seems to be implying Johnson should resign.
You are indeed blinded by your hatred of Starmer.
I was quoting the Independent who said he "stopped short of asking him to resign and instead asked for an apology"
LOTOs don't ask the PM to resign because there's nowhere to go from there. Demanding resignations is what the SNP and LibDems do to get headlines. This isn't new, it's how it's always worked.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
Yes, boostered or not is more the question. But as yet a clear settled picture on the Omicron threat hasn't emerged. Or if it has I've missed it. It's significantly more transmissible and to some extent evades vaccines and prior infection, this is all we know. Leaves many questions still o/s. The most important of these imo is - What is the booster efficacy vs hospitalization?
There is no settled picture because we still won't have one for another week or two.
Which is a problem because the only thing we currently know is that it's so infectious it's going to spread quickly regardless of what measures are taken. Which is why tonights dead cat bounce is so completely pointless.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Yes but haven't you heard, if it's less dangerous it's worse.
Indeed. There is an absolutely amazing piece of attempted goalpost shifting going on.
A week ago, those that suggested that the South Africans might – just possibly – be right that Omicron was milder were dismissed as crazed optimists, deniers even. @Leon himself outright called me "delusional" merely for suggesting the possibility of it.
A week on, we have Fauci, the WHO, Pfizer, the Norwegian government, the Japanese government, John Burn-Murdoch, the South Africans and now even @Leon himself suggesting that it could in fact, be, erm milder.
Now the hawkish position is that well yes, um, but a milder virus that is more transmissible is actually worse, you delusional cock-eyed optimist hopium-addict covid-denier, you.
And yet, at the start of this shitshow, the general medical thinking seemed to be that the way out of a pandemic is for the virus to mutate so it spreads more quickly, yet keeps its hosts alive.
Douglas Ross is about to embark on a TV round after being left furious by Boris Johnson at PMQs. Expected to say there was a party, it can’t be defended and No10 reaction has not been good enough. Remember Ross quit as Scotland Office minister over Barnard Castle
None of this is remotely defensible. Not having busy, boozy not-parties while others were sticking to the rules, unable to visit ill or dying loved ones.
Nor flat-out denying things that are easily provable. Not taking the public for fools. 1/2
“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Very much at odds with other study data that is emerging.
I’m not sure it is. There are 2 very early studies. One from Frankfurt and one from SA. One shows a 41x drop in antibodies for Pfizer v Omicron another shows a 37x drop. A striking similarity
You may be aware of more studies? If so, fair enough. And these are all extremely tentative conclusions anyway, as the boffins admit
Boris Johnson told by SNP he must resign over No 10 party
Starmer says he should say sorry (Boris not Blackford I think)
Suggesting Johnson no longer has the "moral authority" (to move to plan B seems to be implying Johnson should resign.
You are indeed blinded by your hatred of Starmer.
I was quoting the Independent who said he "stopped short of asking him to resign and instead asked for an apology"
LOTOs don't ask the PM to resign because there's nowhere to go from there. Demanding resignations is what the SNP and LibDems do to get headlines. This isn't new, it's how it's always worked.
That's true, though demanding an apology right after the person has apologised is odd. He wasn't really able to adjust to Boris's pre-emptory statement, so just went with the pre-planned questions, but that was fine in this situation since the pre-planned questions were damaging enough.
This is such an own goal for Number 10 that even Starmer couldn't miss.
All those people with two fat jabs of summer Pfizer inside them should surely be cheered by the news that the immunity they have against Omicron is now so tiny it “cannot be measured”
Happy Days
You're comparing a lab study of current blood antibody levels in vaccinated individuals with "immunity". They are very much not the same thing - the former is a very rough proxy.
If a vaccinated individual is exposed to the virus it's true that their circulating antibody is unlikely to neutralise it (though if they've recently had their third shot booster it likely will to an extent). Even those vaccinated who have very low levels of circulating antibody will produce fresh antibodies which target the virus spike more rapidly and in greater quantities than if they'd not been vaccinated. They will also mount a targeted T-cell response much more rapidly than the unvaccinated.
Fact is that we already know from real world data that a lot of vaccinated people will be susceptible to infection by Omicron, and be infectious to others in turn. What we don't know is what proportion will go on to develop serious disease - but again we do know that it will be a lot fewer than those among the unvaccinated population.
They also refuse to say that Simon Case was definitely not at the event he has been asked to investigate, although PM’s Press Secretary does say: “This an independent fact-finding mission. I think you can be assured that due diligence has been followed on that.” https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1468573445772427281
I can't really see a good way out of this for the Tories.
What a mess.
Boris gets pushed out.
And the Tories probably face a decade or more in opposition.
Removing proven election winners rarely works. After forcing Thatcher out the Tories lost 3 out of 4 of the next general elections, after Blair went Labour has lost 4 General elections in a row.
There is a reason non Tories want Boris out as he is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and also the leader with most appeal to the RedWall. Remove him and Starmer's job becomes easier
I concur.
Keep Boris. Please.
Conflation of correlation and causation once again from master of statistics HYUFD.
Alternative explanation: leaders get kicked out by their own when the party has outlasted its sell-by date and is already in the electoral wilderness. I.e. the causation is the party has become rotten to the core. The effects are that the leader is kicked out AND the party takes a while to find a new leadership and recover.
Shhh! Never disturb an enemy while they’re making a mistake.
Happy to make my prediction, Truss (62%) defeats Sunak (38%) on the membership ballot.
Main question then if Sunak stays in post and how well they get on, which isn't clear. I don't think they hate each other, at least.
The main way that its not Truss v Sunak in my view is if it is instead a 'dream ticket' of Sunak and Truss running together with Truss to be Sunak's Chancellor.
I'd 100% vote for that, if I've rejoined the party by then and am eligible to do so.
That's extraordinary. LDs only got 10% at last election. Will we regret not backing CP at this price?
Possibly. I'd have been all over Con at this price when the election was called. Or even just after OB&S. But with recent events, who is going to get out of bed to go and vote Con when it makes no significant difference to who is in power? So, I'm staying with my LD trade out, I think.
The only interesting thing would be postal voting - do we have any numbers on how many in NS have postal votes or how many returned (is any of that public?). Postal votes could have come in before the latest snafus and postal voters might still tick the blue box rather than popping it in the bin. Maybe.
Boris Johnson told by SNP he must resign over No 10 party
Starmer says he should say sorry (Boris not Blackford I think)
Suggesting Johnson no longer has the "moral authority" (to move to plan B seems to be implying Johnson should resign.
You are indeed blinded by your hatred of Starmer.
I was quoting the Independent who said he "stopped short of asking him to resign and instead asked for an apology"
LOTOs don't ask the PM to resign because there's nowhere to go from there. Demanding resignations is what the SNP and LibDems do to get headlines. This isn't new, it's how it's always worked.
That's true, though demanding an apology right after the person has apologised is odd. He wasn't really able to adjust to Boris's pre-emptory statement, so just went with the pre-planned questions, but that was fine in this situation since the pre-planned questions were damaging enough.
This is such an own goal for Number 10 that even Starmer couldn't miss.
Not true at all. His "are you a leader" point was absolutely untouched by Johnson's apology. I am not even sure he asked for an apology, actually
BREAKING: Boris Johnson's spokesman says the Cabinet Secretary will *only* investigate the alleged Downing Street party on December 18th, which the prime minister did not attend, and not any other party, including the one he reportedly *did* attend. https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1468572366590599170
Comments
It’s too clever for mad Remainer mandarins and too subtle for Labour double agents
As to the question Why do it - Why did Gabrielle d’Annunzio fellate himself?
You are indeed blinded by your hatred of Starmer.
Edit - binding efficiency dilution of that level will still give very good efficacy with three doses, especially against severe symptoms.
Once we got to the end of June it was too late to sort out doing first vaccinations before the end of term (although I think I said at the time we needed to and should have done).
It's instructive to list the weaknesses of Boris and Sunak:
Boris
- is not great on detail
- serial liar
- has an interesting interpretation of prime-ministerly
- not great when it comes to numbers
- has a long list of enemies
- worryingly colourful private life
Rishi
- is very, very small
Happy Days
Reminded instantly of the Bill Hicks joke, to which the punchline is “Ladies, you’d all be here on your own. Looking at an empty stage”.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
Come to think of it, what's to stop us just naming the next one Omega?
Remember that Frodo was the greatest hero of them all.
Well. Except for Sam. But he's a hobbit too.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/06/13/rishi-sunak-looks-like-a-homunculus-this-may-stymie-his-leadership-ambitions/
Gove? Sunak? I can't see Truss being his type, somehow.
Or has he reached the stage where he doesn't care what happens afterwards, and it's all DIEBORISDIEDIEDIE?
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-partially-protective-against-omicron-bloomberg-news-2021-12-07/
To quote
Exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
So there are 2 journalists (minimum) reporting the same 3 shots of Pfizer test.
One better criticism, SAGE hardly met during that time, including nothing in August. The government should have been on them to say you need to use these months to formulate all the plans and models. Instead they waited until September / October to start doing this.
I am an expert on this problem.
Despite a slightly odd woman trying to argue that 12 is too young to have the vaccine under the 12-15 grouping....
They broke the rules. They lied. They're laughing at you.
https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1468540585678155786
Sane people are saying we need to live with Covid, not that its over.
People need to understand this is a part of our lives now and it will never be over. We can't hide behind the cushions waiting for it to be over and its safe to come out again. There is no "over" to this.
if Johnson does resign (I think not but let's play) who puts their hat in the ring?
Sunak definitely. Truss probably. Hunt, Gove and Javid possibly.
Say all five do. Which two get through the MP ballots?
I'm not sure but I'd go with Sunak and Hunt. That could make for a very close membership vote.
A non-apology apology and semi-reversal (effectively "we followed the rules but are now investigating whether we followed the rules") which merely served to keep the story alive and the anger bubbling. Either come clean or stand firm.
Clever politics.
Gove is never going to get through even if he does step forwards. I think Hunt's time has been and gone.
I expect it will be Gove v Truss. MPs like to back a winner and they both look like possible winners based on the polls.
On a brighter note Cookie is right to note the numbers out of SA show a slight slowing. This is crucial if it continues. Maybe Omicron is a firework that falls away quickly
That and much reduced virulence are our main hopes now. Otherwise it’s a winter lockdown
The maths can’t lie. 5m Brits have no jab, maybe 10m more have lesser protection. If we all get exposed to Omicron it means 50-100,000 in hospital over the winter? Or many more?
In that scenario we will be locked down so hard they will even have to cancel the planned Roman-themed toga-orgies in Downing Street
NB. We have at least two research studies being quoted in that article (possibly three?). None of which have been peer reviewed or even published in full yet.
I think Boris is a busted flush.
This stuff is going to cut through in a way very little has in the Johnson era. It is hugely damaging. The issue is it’s impossible to get away from the charge that “they joked (and allegedly partied) whilst my relative died alone.”
Flat renovations and holidays and all the rest of it can be waved away as standard Westminster run-of-the-mill noise. This can’t.
It would not surprise me to see the Tories fall 10 points behind after this. There must be a lot of people looking at Labour now and saying “actually, they can’t do a worse job than the current lot.” I’m one of them.
The only consolation for the Tories is that we’re 2.5 years out from an election and they’ve got time to recover. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that Johnson is up to leading that recovery though. For the first time, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got rid next year.
I wouldn't want to be unvaccinated right now though...
If he went and Truss was is the last 2 I would vote for whoever her opponent is.
However I would still stay in the party if she ended up leader, provided she kept her past republicanism quiet as she has done so far. If not I would vote RefUK
.
But the only Tory in the village will tell you it is.
So you were impressed by Starmer's 6-0 drubbing of Johnson?
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
They also refuse to deny that another party took place on 13th November, as alleged by Dominic Cummings.
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1468572777015820301
Which is a problem because the only thing we currently know is that it's so infectious it's going to spread quickly regardless of what measures are taken. Which is why tonights dead cat bounce is so completely pointless.
A week ago, those that suggested that the South Africans might – just possibly – be right that Omicron was milder were dismissed as crazed optimists, deniers even. @Leon himself outright called me "delusional" merely for suggesting the possibility of it.
A week on, we have Fauci, the WHO, Pfizer, the Norwegian government, the Japanese government, John Burn-Murdoch, the South Africans and now even @Leon himself suggesting that it could in fact, be, erm milder.
Now the hawkish position is that well yes, um, but a milder virus that is more transmissible is actually worse, you delusional cock-eyed optimist hopium-addict covid-denier, you.
And yet, at the start of this shitshow, the general medical thinking seemed to be that the way out of a pandemic is for the virus to mutate so it spreads more quickly, yet keeps its hosts alive.
Funny old world.
https://twitter.com/kieranpandrews/status/1468568917371240451?s=21
Main question then if Sunak stays in post and how well they get on, which isn't clear. I don't think they hate each other, at least.
Nor flat-out denying things that are easily provable. Not taking the public for fools. 1/2
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1468573458363727875
You may be aware of more studies? If so, fair enough. And these are all extremely tentative conclusions anyway, as the boffins admit
We need more numbers
This is such an own goal for Number 10 that even Starmer couldn't miss.
If a vaccinated individual is exposed to the virus it's true that their circulating antibody is unlikely to neutralise it (though if they've recently had their third shot booster it likely will to an extent).
Even those vaccinated who have very low levels of circulating antibody will produce fresh antibodies which target the virus spike more rapidly and in greater quantities than if they'd not been vaccinated. They will also mount a targeted T-cell response much more rapidly than the unvaccinated.
Fact is that we already know from real world data that a lot of vaccinated people will be susceptible to infection by Omicron, and be infectious to others in turn. What we don't know is what proportion will go on to develop serious disease - but again we do know that it will be a lot fewer than those among the unvaccinated population.
I'm rejoining the party to vote for her.
YESSSSS
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1468573445772427281
Never disturb an enemy while they’re making a mistake.
I'd 100% vote for that, if I've rejoined the party by then and am eligible to do so.
The only interesting thing would be postal voting - do we have any numbers on how many in NS have postal votes or how many returned (is any of that public?). Postal votes could have come in before the latest snafus and postal voters might still tick the blue box rather than popping it in the bin. Maybe.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1468572366590599170