“Reuters is carrying a somewhat bleak analysis that has emerged from virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University hospital Frankfurt.
“Stressing that she has posted only selected findings and a paper hasn’t been presented yet, she has said exposing the blood of vaccinated individuals to different virus variants, she found that the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three shots of BioNTech/Pfizer was up to 37 times lower than the response to Delta.
“An antibody response to Omicron half a year after a two-shot regimen of Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna or a mixed course of AstraZeneca/BioNTech was not even measurable, Ciesek added.”
(Guardian live blog)
Very much at odds with other study data that is emerging.
I’m not sure it is. There are 2 very early studies. One from Frankfurt and one from SA. One shows a 41x drop in antibodies for Pfizer v Omicron another shows a 37x drop. A striking similarity
You may be aware of more studies? If so, fair enough. And these are all extremely tentative conclusions anyway, as the boffins admit
We need more numbers
Up to 41x for two doses, and as @Chris noted, the low numbers were outliers.
We do need more numbers, but you are falling into the journalistic trap of looking at the worst case scenario and adopting it as the most likely, or the number to report.
Absolutely useless performance from Johnson, and a dreadful decision on handling by Number 10 this morning.
A non-apology apology and semi-reversal (effectively "we followed the rules but are now investigating whether we followed the rules") which merely served to keep the story alive and the anger bubbling. Either come clean or stand firm.
Yes. The entire strategy is laughable. "There was no party. But I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to investigate if there was a party so that he can confirm there was a party".
Unfortunately, when asked by Starmer if he would turn over all records to the police, Liar said he would before turning back to one of his attack points.
We know he won't. But they will now be hounded until they do. So they've not only failed to kill off this story, they're doubling down on their efforts to cover it up...
Boris Johnson told by SNP he must resign over No 10 party
Starmer says he should say sorry (Boris not Blackford I think)
Suggesting Johnson no longer has the "moral authority" (to move to plan B seems to be implying Johnson should resign.
You are indeed blinded by your hatred of Starmer.
I was quoting the Independent who said he "stopped short of asking him to resign and instead asked for an apology"
LOTOs don't ask the PM to resign because there's nowhere to go from there. Demanding resignations is what the SNP and LibDems do to get headlines. This isn't new, it's how it's always worked.
That's true, though demanding an apology right after the person has apologised is odd. He wasn't really able to adjust to Boris's pre-emptory statement, so just went with the pre-planned questions, but that was fine in this situation since the pre-planned questions were damaging enough.
This is such an own goal for Number 10 that even Starmer couldn't miss.
The apology was specifically in relation to the video. In other words the sideshow.
Starmer was demanding an apology for the party that didn't happen according to Johnson.
Douglas Ross is about to embark on a TV round after being left furious by Boris Johnson at PMQs. Expected to say there was a party, it can’t be defended and No10 reaction has not been good enough. Remember Ross quit as Scotland Office minister over Barnard Castle
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Fundamental misunderstanding
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
We have got no idea yet on average case severity for single, double, triple vaccinated, naturally immune or completely virus naive. We also don't know what the natural severity of Omicron is.
So far all of the known Omicron cases in vaccinated or previously infected people are mild or people have no symptoms.
I agree that Omicron might be bad for people without any immunity, but there is growing evidence now that for people with some kind of immunity (double vaxxed, prior infection and triple vaxxed), Omicron isn't that bad. That covers 90% of the UK population with the majority of the remainder under 18.
There's potential for Omicron to be really, really bad in countries where vax rates are low and have low rates of natural immunity, but for the UK the potential for COVID to reach escape velocity is low and Omicron doesn't evade existing immunity to a serious enough level to cause serious disease.
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Yes but haven't you heard, if it's less dangerous it's worse.
Indeed. There is an absolutely amazing piece of attempted goalpost shifting going on.
A week ago, those that suggested that the South Africans might – just possibly – be right that Omicron was milder were dismissed as crazed optimists, deniers even. @Leon himself outright called me "delusional" merely for suggesting the possibility of it.
A week on, we have Fauci, the WHO, Pfizer, the Norwegian government, the Japanese government, John Burn-Murdoch, the South Africans and now even @Leon himself suggesting that it could in fact, be, erm milder.
Now the hawkish position is that well yes, um, but a milder virus that is more transmissible is actually worse, you delusional cock-eyed optimist hopium-addict covid-denier, you.
And yet, at the start of this shitshow, the general medical thinking seemed to be that the way out of a pandemic is for the virus to mutate so it spreads more quickly, yet keeps its hosts alive.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Fundamental misunderstanding
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
As an Omicron survivor seems you were quite lucky.
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
Probably time to forget any notions of Keir Starmer being challenged for the Labour leadership. Unlike Johnson, it looks like the vast majority of his party's MPs are fully behind him. I suspect it's the same with the membership. He's had a very good few weeks.
Yep. And one of my finest hours (punditwise) was going contra when everyone was saying he was toast after Hartlepool. Money down too. Got long of him at bigger than 8 for Next PM. Terrific piece of business. Or was it? Because if Johnson crashes & burns before the GE, so does the bet. Oh dear. I still don't think it will happen, Johnson going, but I'm not quite as sure of this as I was this time last week.
I thought he was a loyal Unionist and a believer in the Tory Party? Like Lady Davidson for that matter.
And today's "we'll investigate what we've spent a week saying didn't happen and discipline staff for rules we continue to say weren't broken" was pathetic. As a Tory, I was brought up to believe in playing with a straight bat. Believe me, colleagues are furious at this, too. 2/2 https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1468574627836448769
Douglas Ross is about to embark on a TV round after being left furious by Boris Johnson at PMQs. Expected to say there was a party, it can’t be defended and No10 reaction has not been good enough. Remember Ross quit as Scotland Office minister over Barnard Castle
I don't think he has ever been a big Boris fan. He's pretty close to Ruth Davidson who loathes BJ.
I think he will move Scottish Tories into a more detached stance from the UK party.
The Scottish Conservatives have a different profile to rest of party. The "white van man" component, important south of the border, votes SNP in Scotland.
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
I hate to think of HYUFD trying to persuade Adam Tomkins to join the Tories. This is an interesting anecdote about someone who might have become First Minister in an alternative universe or five.
I just booked my third jab for Sunday. Pretty impressive how quick the system is working.
How old are you? My wife wants to book booster and she's mid 40s.
40's. Looked through all the various vaccination centres - have to travel about 10 miles to get it done this Sunday, others were booked up until the new year.
Edit - its on the NHS website - search book covid vaccination. You don't even need your NHS number.
Again, I said it earlier the income data shows that Omicron seems to have about the same level of vaccine efficacy dilution as Beta. We already had this same panic of "but what if the vaccines don't work" with that and the South Africans made the absolutely ridiculous decision on throwing out their AZ doses.
Laura K: "What is surprising is that PM was still trying to say that he didn't really know what was going on.....after seven days".
"Boris Johnson is in a very very very uncomfortable position, despite having apologised, and I think there are very few Conservatives prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, frankly"
Probably time to forget any notions of Keir Starmer being challenged for the Labour leadership. Unlike Johnson, it looks like the vast majority of his party's MPs are fully behind him. I suspect it's the same with the membership. He's had a very good few weeks.
Yep. And one of my finest hours (punditwise) was going contra when everyone was saying he was toast after Hartlepool. Money down too. Got long of him at bigger than 8 for Next PM. Terrific piece of business. Or was it? Because if Johnson crashes & burns before the GE, so does the bet. Oh dear. I still don't think it will happen, Johnson going, but I'm not quite as sure of this as I was this time last week.
You and I were I think the only people that said he was secure.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Fundamental misunderstanding
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
We have got no idea yet on average case severity for single, double, triple vaccinated, naturally immune or completely virus naive. We also don't know what the natural severity of Omicron is.
So far all of the known Omicron cases in vaccinated or previously infected people are mild or people have no symptoms.
I agree that Omicron might be bad for people without any immunity, but there is growing evidence now that for people with some kind of immunity (double vaxxed, prior infection and triple vaxxed), Omicron isn't that bad. That covers 90% of the UK population with the majority of the remainder under 18.
There's potential for Omicron to be really, really bad in countries where vax rates are low and have low rates of natural immunity, but for the UK the potential for COVID to reach escape velocity is low and Omicron doesn't evade existing immunity to a serious enough level to cause serious disease.
I blame you for all this. I told you that you were breaking the Second Rule of Covid Hubris, and that it would come back to bite us
Tsk!
More seriously, there are strange things happening everywhere, which muddies the picture even more. Almost unnoticed Covid has finally exploded in South Korea. Today is their worst day ever. Over 7000 cases
"The discrepancy is often explained by the disparity between the 19th-century French inch, which was 2.71 cm, and the current inch measurement, which is 2.54 cm. Sources consequently estimate that Napoleon was probably closer to 5'6” or 5'7” (1.68 or 1.7 meters) than to 5'2”."
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
I hate to think of HYUFD trying to persuade Adam Tomkins to join the Tories. This is an interesting anecdote about someone who might have become First Minister in an alternative universe or five.
Very smart guy, Prof Adam Tomkins, but, sadly, only did one term at Holyrood. All parties in the Scottish Parliament need people like him, especially SNP, who have a real post-Sturgeon problem as there are so few plausible successors.
"The discrepancy is often explained by the disparity between the 19th-century French inch, which was 2.71 cm, and the current inch measurement, which is 2.54 cm. Sources consequently estimate that Napoleon was probably closer to 5'6” or 5'7” (1.68 or 1.7 meters) than to 5'2”."
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
I hate to think of HYUFD trying to persuade Adam Tomkins to join the Tories. This is an interesting anecdote about someone who might have become First Minister in an alternative universe or five.
Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringe @sailorrooscout Fantastic news. Initial lab studies show a third dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine neutralizes Omicron. A booster with the current version of the vaccine RAISES antibodies 25-FOLD providing a similar level as observed after two doses against the original virus and other variants!
All those people with two fat jabs of summer Pfizer inside them should surely be cheered by the news that the immunity they have against Omicron is now so tiny it “cannot be measured”
Happy Days
You're comparing a lab study of current blood antibody levels in vaccinated individuals with "immunity". They are very much not the same thing - the former is a very rough proxy.
If a vaccinated individual is exposed to the virus it's true that their circulating antibody is unlikely to neutralise it (though if they've recently had their third shot booster it likely will to an extent). Even those vaccinated who have very low levels of circulating antibody will produce fresh antibodies which target the virus spike more rapidly and in greater quantities than if they'd not been vaccinated. They will also mount a targeted T-cell response much more rapidly than the unvaccinated.
Fact is that we already know from real world data that a lot of vaccinated people will be susceptible to infection by Omicron, and be infectious to others in turn. What we don't know is what proportion will go on to develop serious disease - but again we do know that it will be a lot fewer than those among the unvaccinated population.
I suspect there’s too much focus on “antibodies” - these decline over time from either infection or vaccination - long term the bodies war against invaders is carried out by T-cells - which AZ was better at producing in the elderly. They may not be as fast off the mark as antibodies but they do the long term heavy lifting.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
He's going to explode if it's Truss.
if Johnson does resign (I think not but let's play) who puts their hat in the ring?
Sunak definitely. Truss probably. Hunt, Gove and Javid possibly.
Say all five do. Which two get through the MP ballots?
I'm not sure but I'd go with Sunak and Hunt. That could make for a very close membership vote.
Is Raab acting PM in between!?
Why should HYUFD explode if it is Ms Truss? Does he object to being taught punctuation?
She's a former Lib Dem and republican.
I'm rejoining the party to vote for her.
Isn't there a 6 month rule to deter opportunists like you? Or does it not apply if you are fnarrr attempting re-entry?
I think it is three months.
I think there's special circumstances for long standing lapsed members.
Collapsed, you mean, I think.
I'm still a conservative, it is the just the Conservative Party stopped being conservative.
This is my way of getting my party back.
The Tory Party of now is ideologically bankrupt, something that was a respectable institution is now dead and buried unless people like yourself save it.
Probably time to forget any notions of Keir Starmer being challenged for the Labour leadership. Unlike Johnson, it looks like the vast majority of his party's MPs are fully behind him. I suspect it's the same with the membership. He's had a very good few weeks.
Yep. And one of my finest hours (punditwise) was going contra when everyone was saying he was toast after Hartlepool. Money down too. Got long of him at bigger than 8 for Next PM. Terrific piece of business. Or was it? Because if Johnson crashes & burns before the GE, so does the bet. Oh dear. I still don't think it will happen, Johnson going, but I'm not quite as sure of this as I was this time last week.
You and I were I think the only people that said he was secure.
I got on at just under 8 because I agreed with Kinabalu he was too long. But traded out when he got to 4.something - there's a smallish window* for Starmer to do well enough to be PM but not well enough that Johnson gets defenestrated and the bet loses through another Con PM.
*relies mostly on May-like paralysis where no one gets Johnson out for fear that the 'other' side gets in, but I don't think those divisions/fears are so strong now OR for Johnson to look set for a majority right up until near the election and for late events or polling upset to sneak Starmer in.
Douglas Ross is about to embark on a TV round after being left furious by Boris Johnson at PMQs. Expected to say there was a party, it can’t be defended and No10 reaction has not been good enough. Remember Ross quit as Scotland Office minister over Barnard Castle
I don't think he has ever been a big Boris fan. He's pretty close to Ruth Davidson who loathes BJ.
I think he will move Scottish Tories into a more detached stance from the UK party.
The Scottish Conservatives have a different profile to rest of party. The "white van man" component, important south of the border, votes SNP in Scotland.
Ooh, get the petit bourgeois snobbery; that's not the way to keep the Rangers men on board. What about the Scotch white van man that hates immigration and the EU?
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
I hate to think of HYUFD trying to persuade Adam Tomkins to join the Tories. This is an interesting anecdote about someone who might have become First Minister in an alternative universe or five.
Laura K: "What is surprising is that PM was still trying to say that he didn't really know what was going on.....after seven days".
"Boris Johnson is in a very very very uncomfortable position, despite having apologised, and I think there are very few Conservatives prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, frankly"
Douglas Ross is about to embark on a TV round after being left furious by Boris Johnson at PMQs. Expected to say there was a party, it can’t be defended and No10 reaction has not been good enough. Remember Ross quit as Scotland Office minister over Barnard Castle
I don't think he has ever been a big Boris fan. He's pretty close to Ruth Davidson who loathes BJ.
I think he will move Scottish Tories into a more detached stance from the UK party.
The Scottish Conservatives have a different profile to rest of party. The "white van man" component, important south of the border, votes SNP in Scotland.
Ooh, get the petit bourgeois snobbery; that's not the way to keep the Rangers men on board. What about the white van man that hates immigration and the EU?
I agree - far more mixed politically than that suggestion. Plenty Labour voters in the eastern central ex-mining districts too.
Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringe @sailorrooscout Fantastic news. Initial lab studies show a third dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine neutralizes Omicron. A booster with the current version of the vaccine RAISES antibodies 25-FOLD providing a similar level as observed after two doses against the original virus and other variants!
Tim Montgomerie: "I remain genuinely gobsmacked at the whole saga, the fact that a party could be held in the first place was bad enough, but for the PM to spend a long time in denial about a party that the BBC and other journalists had managed to substantiate was treating the public as fools"
"He MUST have known something; everybody else I have spoken to in Westminster knew something"
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Fundamental misunderstanding
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
We have got no idea yet on average case severity for single, double, triple vaccinated, naturally immune or completely virus naive. We also don't know what the natural severity of Omicron is.
So far all of the known Omicron cases in vaccinated or previously infected people are mild or people have no symptoms.
I agree that Omicron might be bad for people without any immunity, but there is growing evidence now that for people with some kind of immunity (double vaxxed, prior infection and triple vaxxed), Omicron isn't that bad. That covers 90% of the UK population with the majority of the remainder under 18.
There's potential for Omicron to be really, really bad in countries where vax rates are low and have low rates of natural immunity, but for the UK the potential for COVID to reach escape velocity is low and Omicron doesn't evade existing immunity to a serious enough level to cause serious disease.
I blame you for all this. I told you that you were breaking the Second Rule of Covid Hubris, and that it would come back to bite us
Tsk!
More seriously, there are strange things happening everywhere, which muddies the picture even more. Almost unnoticed Covid has finally exploded in South Korea. Today is their worst day ever. Over 7000 cases
Wtf? Very low natural immunity, of course
As you say, very low natural immunity. Omicron can't be contained without a full China style economic shutdown, not even our most severe lockdown will contain Omicron because we all need to shop. The Rt is so high that we will still have exponential growth and 4-5 day doubling times in a full lockdown. Our only way out is to now let it burn through the remaining unvaccinated and those who are unlucky enough to get severe symptoms after two or three doses or prior infection.
Tim Montgomerie: "I remain genuinely gobsmacked at the whole saga, the fact that a party could be held in the first place was bad enough, but for the PM to spend a long time in denial about a party that the BBC and other journalists had managed to substantiate was treating the public as fools"
"He MUST have known something; everybody else I have spoken to in Westminster knew something"
If Truss runs I wonder if her Young Lib Dem past will be brought up, believe in the early 90's she was part of a conference motion to abolish the monarchy or something akin!!!
I hate to think of HYUFD trying to persuade Adam Tomkins to join the Tories. This is an interesting anecdote about someone who might have become First Minister in an alternative universe or five.
The timing of this scandal is quite interesting. Seems to me like someone not fond of lockdowns / vaxports waited patiently for a year to unleash it all.
Dear god. This reminds me of Bill Clinton’s ‘it depends what your definition of the word “is” is’
When you’ve reached those levels of absurd, shambolic semi-denial, you’re done
I guess their only hope now is to brazen it out. Just keep lying and hope bad Covid news overtakes. Anyone who admits to being at the parties will now be toast. This also applies to political journalists, of course. A dangerous scandalette for many
Back in the day, this sort of thing would have been conveyed quietly by men in grey suits.
(Worth noting, as someone who grew up nearby, SE Hampshire is a funny place, demographically. It fell off the Red Wall, put on a Naval uniform, and that's what made it vote Conservative, especially through the 80s.)
The timing of this scandal is quite interesting. Seems to me like someone not fond of lockdowns / vaxports waited patiently for a year to unleash it all.
Or the CBI speech was the final straw and they decided that PM Peppa Pig needed ejecting as clear he was now losing the important business folk, poll ratings were dropping, etc.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Yes but haven't you heard, if it's less dangerous it's worse.
Indeed. There is an absolutely amazing piece of attempted goalpost shifting going on.
A week ago, those that suggested that the South Africans might – just possibly – be right that Omicron was milder were dismissed as crazed optimists, deniers even. @Leon himself outright called me "delusional" merely for suggesting the possibility of it.
A week on, we have Fauci, the WHO, Pfizer, the Norwegian government, the Japanese government, John Burn-Murdoch, the South Africans and now even @Leon himself suggesting that it could in fact, be, erm milder.
Now the hawkish position is that well yes, um, but a milder virus that is more transmissible is actually worse, you delusional cock-eyed optimist hopium-addict covid-denier, you.
And yet, at the start of this shitshow, the general medical thinking seemed to be that the way out of a pandemic is for the virus to mutate so it spreads more quickly, yet keeps its hosts alive.
Funny old world.
I tried to warn you. Ah well
You tried to warn me of what exactly?
Not that I care, as you yourself have observed I'm pretty thick-skinned – being called delusional by a man with more mood swings than a hormonal teenager is part of the deal on PB. And as I usually enjoy your posts I'm happy to take my medicine.
But, it's worth my making the general point, nevertheless.
Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringe @sailorrooscout Fantastic news. Initial lab studies show a third dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine neutralizes Omicron. A booster with the current version of the vaccine RAISES antibodies 25-FOLD providing a similar level as observed after two doses against the original virus and other variants!
All those people with two fat jabs of summer Pfizer inside them should surely be cheered by the news that the immunity they have against Omicron is now so tiny it “cannot be measured”
Happy Days
You're comparing a lab study of current blood antibody levels in vaccinated individuals with "immunity". They are very much not the same thing - the former is a very rough proxy.
If a vaccinated individual is exposed to the virus it's true that their circulating antibody is unlikely to neutralise it (though if they've recently had their third shot booster it likely will to an extent). Even those vaccinated who have very low levels of circulating antibody will produce fresh antibodies which target the virus spike more rapidly and in greater quantities than if they'd not been vaccinated. They will also mount a targeted T-cell response much more rapidly than the unvaccinated.
Fact is that we already know from real world data that a lot of vaccinated people will be susceptible to infection by Omicron, and be infectious to others in turn. What we don't know is what proportion will go on to develop serious disease - but again we do know that it will be a lot fewer than those among the unvaccinated population.
I suspect there’s too much focus on “antibodies” - these decline over time from either infection or vaccination - long term the bodies war against invaders is carried out by T-cells - which AZ was better at producing in the elderly. They may not be as fast off the mark as antibodies but they do the long term heavy lifting.
Its because 'everyone and his dog' has become expert in the immune system without the pesky problom of attending university at UG level (minimum). The depth of understanding of many, including some on here, is laughable.
I had AZ as I am high risk, for my first two jabs.
Just recently had Moderna for my booster, praying I am protected
You're probably better protected than triple Pfizer.
Indeed, of the available combinations I've been told by multiple people AZ/AZ/Moderna is the best followed by 3x Moderna. 3x Pfizer will be really good to though.
Absolutely. Getting exercised about the particular brand of vaccine you had, when all are pretty effective, is a waste of time.
"First world problem" is an overused term but ...
The worry is not really which brand of vax you had. The concern is when you had it. If you had 2 and they are now 6 months old they appear to be virtually useless against OMICRON THE MANSLAYER
There's no evidence omicron is more dangerous.
Fundamental misunderstanding
A virus can be less severe - less virulent - but still more dangerous if it is much more transmissible and also capable of reinfection (as seems to be the case with OMICRON, THE DEVOURER OF SOULS)
Simple maths. Let’s say Omicron puts only 5% of cases in hospital but Delta can do 10%. Delta is more dangerous? Well yes, unless it turns out Omicron is 4 times more infectious so it will infect 4 times as many people
eg
Delta attacks 10000 and infects 1000. 10% go to hospital. That’s 100 in hospital
Omicron attacks 10000 and infects 4000. 5% go to hospital. That’s 200 in hospital
We have got no idea yet on average case severity for single, double, triple vaccinated, naturally immune or completely virus naive. We also don't know what the natural severity of Omicron is.
So far all of the known Omicron cases in vaccinated or previously infected people are mild or people have no symptoms.
I agree that Omicron might be bad for people without any immunity, but there is growing evidence now that for people with some kind of immunity (double vaxxed, prior infection and triple vaxxed), Omicron isn't that bad. That covers 90% of the UK population with the majority of the remainder under 18.
There's potential for Omicron to be really, really bad in countries where vax rates are low and have low rates of natural immunity, but for the UK the potential for COVID to reach escape velocity is low and Omicron doesn't evade existing immunity to a serious enough level to cause serious disease.
I blame you for all this. I told you that you were breaking the Second Rule of Covid Hubris, and that it would come back to bite us
Tsk!
More seriously, there are strange things happening everywhere, which muddies the picture even more. Almost unnoticed Covid has finally exploded in South Korea. Today is their worst day ever. Over 7000 cases
Wtf? Very low natural immunity, of course
As you say, very low natural immunity. Omicron can't be contained without a full China style economic shutdown, not even our most severe lockdown will contain Omicron because we all need to shop. The Rt is so high that we will still have exponential growth and 4-5 day doubling times in a full lockdown. Our only way out is to now let it burn through the remaining unvaccinated and those who are unlucky enough to get severe symptoms after two or three doses or prior infection.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
Boris will stay through to the general election in my view.
If he went and Truss was is the last 2 I would vote for whoever her opponent is.
However I would still stay in the party if she ended up leader, provided she kept her past republicanism quiet as she has done so far. If not I would vote RefUK
.
Is it essential to be a monarchist to be either a conservative or Conservative?
To be a UK Tory and certainly to be UK Tory leader absolutely, otherwise the Tory party ceases to exist.
In which case Tories can explore other options until the party returns to true Toryism once again
Well, for context, Switzerland has a U.K. equivalent case rate of 97,000 and a positivity rate of over 16%. It’s because they decided not to join the EU.
You mean I can get an article published in the Speccie pointing out that Boris is a useless solipsistic twat.
Nothing in his career suggested a man capable of making a success of one of the country’s most demanding jobs. What was foreseeable was in fact foreseen.
What does Johnson actually want to do as Prime Minister? Your guess will have to be better than mine because I haven’t a clue.
This is a government that does not even possess the courage — the moral courage — to own its decisions. It is a profoundly unserious administration of a sort that has no equivalent in living memory. There have been bad or failing governments, of course, but this one is bad and fails in a different way. When everything can be a joke nothing really matters; when everything is a performance who worries about actual reality? What is the point of any of it? This is a government without a purpose, without a vision, and without any keen interest in having any of these notionally useful things.
You can't not have a Gov't making decisions it thinks are correct for public health due to their internal troubles. You can't have this Gov't headed by Boris pronouncing on public health given how they've shat all over everything now.
Until Boris is replaced at which point whoever is the new leader he gets a software upgrade to become their biggest fan.
I'll laugh so hard if its Truss.
Boris will stay through to the general election in my view.
If he went and Truss was is the last 2 I would vote for whoever her opponent is.
However I would still stay in the party if she ended up leader, provided she kept her past republicanism quiet as she has done so far. If not I would vote RefUK
.
Is it essential to be a monarchist to be either a conservative or Conservative?
To be a UK Tory and certainly to be UK Tory leader absolutely, otherwise the Tory party ceases to exist.
In which case Tories can explore other options until the party returns to true Toryism once again
But you're not a UK Tory. You're an English Parliament advocate (right in principle, though impractical in reality) - why is being a monarchist more important than a belief in the sole supremacy of Westminster?
The timing of this scandal is quite interesting. Seems to me like someone not fond of lockdowns / vaxports waited patiently for a year to unleash it all.
Well the rumour is that it was the Dom. Apparently he knew about it and has waited to unleash the video at the lethal moment.
Anyway, whatever the source this is one of the worst moments of any Government in my lifetime. When Keir Starmer told the Trish story, the whole chamber fell silent. It wasn't playing politics, it was resonating with what millions of us went through. We gave up f-ing so much whilst that tosser in charge and his acolytes were partying.
It's like something out of the worst excesses of totalitarian regimes: literally lock up your people whilst you party.
If the tories don't replace Boris Johnson and have to endure another couple of years of this then they will be annihilated at the next general election. I remember those who believed that because of 1992, John Major was invincible. Well he wasn't and nor is Johnson. The people will boot him out.
Has there been a better news source for COVID over the past 2 years than the previously little known BNO News? How is a small operation from Holland is able to provide better and more up to date news than anybody else?
Probably time to forget any notions of Keir Starmer being challenged for the Labour leadership. Unlike Johnson, it looks like the vast majority of his party's MPs are fully behind him. I suspect it's the same with the membership. He's had a very good few weeks.
Yep. And one of my finest hours (punditwise) was going contra when everyone was saying he was toast after Hartlepool. Money down too. Got long of him at bigger than 8 for Next PM. Terrific piece of business. Or was it? Because if Johnson crashes & burns before the GE, so does the bet. Oh dear. I still don't think it will happen, Johnson going, but I'm not quite as sure of this as I was this time last week.
You and I were I think the only people that said he was secure.
I got on at just under 8 because I agreed with Kinabalu he was too long. But traded out when he got to 4.something - there's a smallish window* for Starmer to do well enough to be PM but not well enough that Johnson gets defenestrated and the bet loses through another Con PM.
*relies mostly on May-like paralysis where no one gets Johnson out for fear that the 'other' side gets in, but I don't think those divisions/fears are so strong now OR for Johnson to look set for a majority right up until near the election and for late events or polling upset to sneak Starmer in.
Excellent trading, that. I set a 3 handle target for layback and it didn't quite get there. Now back at 7.
Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringe @sailorrooscout Fantastic news. Initial lab studies show a third dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine neutralizes Omicron. A booster with the current version of the vaccine RAISES antibodies 25-FOLD providing a similar level as observed after two doses against the original virus and other variants!
Considering the study last night showing Omicron was 41 times less covered by 2 doses compared to original variant, which equates to 6.5x less covered than delta, a 25x increase could easily suggest 3 doses vs Omicron is considerably better protection than 2 doses vs Delta was.
Plan B the rapper and Plan B the crypto modelling guy are going to get some nasty shocks in their twitter mentions when the government announce the move to stricter restrictions.....
Comments
We do need more numbers, but you are falling into the journalistic trap of looking at the worst case scenario and adopting it as the most likely, or the number to report.
See also what Pfizer have said.
Unfortunately, when asked by Starmer if he would turn over all records to the police, Liar said he would before turning back to one of his attack points.
We know he won't. But they will now be hounded until they do. So they've not only failed to kill off this story, they're doubling down on their efforts to cover it up...
Starmer was demanding an apology for the party that didn't happen according to Johnson.
So far all of the known Omicron cases in vaccinated or previously infected people are mild or people have no symptoms.
I agree that Omicron might be bad for people without any immunity, but there is growing evidence now that for people with some kind of immunity (double vaxxed, prior infection and triple vaxxed), Omicron isn't that bad. That covers 90% of the UK population with the majority of the remainder under 18.
There's potential for Omicron to be really, really bad in countries where vax rates are low and have low rates of natural immunity, but for the UK the potential for COVID to reach escape velocity is low and Omicron doesn't evade existing immunity to a serious enough level to cause serious disease.
I think the masks are unfortunate - you can't read the facial expressions of MPs.
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonPC/status/1468574627836448769
They are both staunch Conservative and Unionists.
unlike BoZo, who is neither...
I think he will move Scottish Tories into a more detached stance from the UK party.
The Scottish Conservatives have a different profile to rest of party. The "white van man" component, important south of the border, votes SNP in Scotland.
I hate to think of HYUFD trying to persuade Adam Tomkins to join the Tories. This is an interesting anecdote about someone who might have become First Minister in an alternative universe or five.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15284720.left-wing-republican-ruth-davidsons-brain-meet-tory-msp-adam-tomkins/
I think there's special circumstances for long standing lapsed members.
Edit - its on the NHS website - search book covid vaccination. You don't even need your NHS number.
JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugust?What will be the point at which the government says ok now everyone can not work from home.
"Boris Johnson is in a very very very uncomfortable position, despite having apologised, and I think there are very few Conservatives prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, frankly"
Tsk!
More seriously, there are strange things happening everywhere, which muddies the picture even more. Almost unnoticed Covid has finally exploded in South Korea. Today is their worst day ever. Over 7000 cases
Wtf? Very low natural immunity, of course
It said 52m.
https://twitter.com/BylineTV/status/1468568213344690179
"The discrepancy is often explained by the disparity between the 19th-century French inch, which was 2.71 cm, and the current inch measurement, which is 2.54 cm. Sources consequently estimate that Napoleon was probably closer to 5'6” or 5'7” (1.68 or 1.7 meters) than to 5'2”."
He may not be SNP but he is clearly not Tory either
Chise DNAPetri dishMicrobeSyringe
@sailorrooscout
Fantastic news. Initial lab studies show a third dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine neutralizes Omicron. A booster with the current version of the vaccine RAISES antibodies 25-FOLD providing a similar level as observed after two doses against the original virus and other variants!
This is my way of getting my party back.
I did my duty in saving Labour.
*relies mostly on May-like paralysis where no one gets Johnson out for fear that the 'other' side gets in, but I don't think those divisions/fears are so strong now OR for Johnson to look set for a majority right up until near the election and for late events or polling upset to sneak Starmer in.
What about the Scotch white van man that hates immigration and the EU?
So obviously you don't think the Scottish Tories are real Tories.
How can they possibly not know the answer to this question?
If the answer is that he wasn’t at the party, they should be able to say so immediately.
If the answer is that he was, then this is even more of a sham than we thought.
#OneRuleForThem
https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1468578451506536460
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1468575983351607300
https://news.sky.com/story/f-35-fighter-jet-wreckage-of-aircraft-that-plunged-into-the-mediterranean-recovered-and-sailor-arrested-for-allegedly-leaking-footage-12489624
What follows, I wonder.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1468578867745021954
✍️ Alex Massie
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-is-eating-reality
"He MUST have known something; everybody else I have spoken to in Westminster knew something"
Am still waiting to for a PPS to step down, as a sign that Johnson has support.
As for Soubury, her views on the PM won't really add anything, must be almost 3 years since she slopped off to Change UK,.
I'd would look for more hostile comments, or interviews from Tory backbenchers on his fitness to head a government.
"I think it's an example again - very unusual for Prime Ministers - of his inability to think through consequences..."
Jeez we've been saying that for two years.
Where is the news angle?
When you’ve reached those levels of absurd, shambolic semi-denial, you’re done
I guess their only hope now is to brazen it out. Just keep lying and hope bad Covid news overtakes. Anyone who admits to being at the parties will now be toast. This also applies to political journalists, of course. A dangerous scandalette for many
(Worth noting, as someone who grew up nearby, SE Hampshire is a funny place, demographically. It fell off the Red Wall, put on a Naval uniform, and that's what made it vote Conservative, especially through the 80s.)
As I said, you have split the UK asunder.
Not that I care, as you yourself have observed I'm pretty thick-skinned – being called delusional by a man with more mood swings than a hormonal teenager is part of the deal on PB. And as I usually enjoy your posts I'm happy to take my medicine.
But, it's worth my making the general point, nevertheless.
In which case Tories can explore other options until the party returns to true Toryism once again
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1468579174386442243
Nothing in his career suggested a man capable of making a success of one of the country’s most demanding jobs. What was foreseeable was in fact foreseen.
What does Johnson actually want to do as Prime Minister? Your guess will have to be better than mine because I haven’t a clue.
This is a government that does not even possess the courage — the moral courage — to own its decisions. It is a profoundly unserious administration of a sort that has no equivalent in living memory. There have been bad or failing governments, of course, but this one is bad and fails in a different way. When everything can be a joke nothing really matters; when everything is a performance who worries about actual reality? What is the point of any of it? This is a government without a purpose, without a vision, and without any keen interest in having any of these notionally useful things.
You can't not have a Gov't making decisions it thinks are correct for public health due to their internal troubles.
You can't have this Gov't headed by Boris pronouncing on public health given how they've shat all over everything now.
He has to go. Now.
Anyway, whatever the source this is one of the worst moments of any Government in my lifetime. When Keir Starmer told the Trish story, the whole chamber fell silent. It wasn't playing politics, it was resonating with what millions of us went through. We gave up f-ing so much whilst that tosser in charge and his acolytes were partying.
It's like something out of the worst excesses of totalitarian regimes: literally lock up your people whilst you party.
If the tories don't replace Boris Johnson and have to endure another couple of years of this then they will be annihilated at the next general election. I remember those who believed that because of 1992, John Major was invincible. Well he wasn't and nor is Johnson. The people will boot him out.
You can't hold on, and you can't let go.