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How the Tories will get a 20 seat bonus from the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    As someone who has been very much in the Starmer is useless camp.
    I think Labour has played this very cannily over the past 2 or 3 weeks.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,538

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    I was walking around London today, and apart from masks on the Tube everything seems pretty normal, as in pre-Covid 19.
    It's the same in the North. Except for the lack of integrated public transport.
    I note that the double vaxxed rate in the Netherlands is 72% and 74% in Belgium compared to 68% in UK*. In both there must be a lot of antibodies from infection too.

    If it really does get out of hand here too, and another Christmas lockdown, then Johnson may be picking up his P45 by Easter.

    *Worldometer figures for all.
    If there's a lockdown he's had it, but I don't think there will be - partly for that reason. Trying to lock everyone up again would shred what is left of the Government's credibility - as well as being largely ineffectual.

    They can, in extremis, force businesses to shut down again, but there's little they can do if private individuals won't cooperate, and there are an awful lot of us out there who aren't going to put up with a load of bullshit rules about which of our friends and family members we can and cannot see again.
    Sunak wont agree to the spending required. We've printed all the money we can to save the NHS.

    Sunak walking would cause the letters to Brady to mean a contest.

    I expect Truss to win.

    If it is Truss you may as well stick with Boris.

    Truss is already on an abysmal -24% rating with the public on whether she would make a good PM with Mori, even worse than Boris on -21% and worse too than Starmer on -16%.

    Sunak however does better than all of them on -9%
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-loses-poll-lead-ipsos-mori-sleaze-scandal-b964945.html
    Your obsession with polls does not translated how a conservative leader campaign may translate into public opinion, though I prefer Rishi as I believe he has the ability and character
    Normally it does, Cameron did best in next Tory leader polls with the public in 2005, Boris did best in next Tory leader polls in 2019. Both won the next general election.

    Clarke did best in next Tory leader polls in 1997 and 2001 but the Tories picked Hague and IDS and neither won a general election.

    On the Labour side Blair did best in 1994 Labour leader polls with the public and won.

    David Miliband did best in next Labour leader polls in 2010 and Burnham did best in 2015 but Labour picked Ed Miliband and Corbyn and lost
    Yesterday does not look at the future especially with such change around us
    Big G, the Philosopher King!
  • Options

    Things can only get better, we’ve had the Tory Black Wednesday

    Tories are like the Bourbons. They have learned nothing, and they have forgotten nothing.

    Once again, found with their tongues scrapping the sides of the trough whilst they stroke their fingers over their pig skin wallets.

    I do wonder if there's some mentality issue involved with some Conservative politicians.

    Namely that they think that being some sleazy middleman is actually what 'business' is all about as opposed to actually adding value along the line.

    Whereas in the outside world wannabe 10% merchants get told to sod off.

    Then again being a sleazy middleman seems to profitable for the politicians involved. Until that is it ends in disgrace.
  • Options
    JadeJade Posts: 27

    Jade said:

    MattW said:

    Jade said:

    Jade said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What's the French for "Fuck off" ?

    Boris Johnson orders Macron to beef up borders & stop migrants pouring in https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16720647/boris-johnson-macron-borders-migrants/

    You have a visceral dislike of Boris but on this he is correct

    France has a duty of care to these migrants as much as we have, and certainly the two countries should be conducting joint patrols to prevent loss of life at sea
    No. Boris just doing words as usual, no action. Truth is he knows he signs seven out of ten up to work here, he just wastes time before doing that. He should send Patel down on beaches to tell them where to start work on Monday, it will save our tax payers money
    What is your evidence for your claim 70% are signed up to work here
    The BBC said it. Are they a bot too or are you too busy to watch the news?

    The figures suggest only about a third of those arriving are not deemed to be refugees.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59257107

    Isn’t that relevant or important. I think it’s a four years wasted because of political dogma.

    And it’s also politics before a lack of humanity.
    @Jade

    The piece does not even include the word "work", never mind the rest of it.
    I think you mean I said work now? What happens then after the four years wait? They stay and they work just like they hoped when they got in the dingy, I think. Or pay for it. Is the news wrong that after long wait seven out of ten do stay and work?

    Sometimes it is said international criminal gangs are making it happen. But no one really says that enough in your opinion? The gangs have money and threat. Lots of people desperate to come here are coming in dingie boats on a sort of scale that’s a successful business. 4 years for processing and then 7 out of ten stay. Meantime where do they live, and how do they eat and live? And do locals embrace them. And how much tax payer money is all this? And it’s bad if the gangs behind it are laughing at us and rolling in it.

    I still think I am right. You saying every single one is so complicated it takes 4 years? There are no quick wins?

    Tell me where I have this all wrong?
    I only have one issue with you and that was accusing a long established poster @Philip_Thompson of being a bot

    That was out of order and maybe an apology would be nice
    Okay I understand now he’s for real. I still think his avatar makes him look very unserious. But I can’t really understand what he saying to be completely sure.

    Are you in charge in this room or something?
  • Options

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.

    Oh, and the 49p for milk.
    Cox has managed to tick every box:

    Vast earnings
    As a lawyer
    Working for a tax haven
    Doing it full time
    Flying around the world during covid
    Expenses troughing
    Involving London property
  • Options
    JadeJade Posts: 27
    dixiedean said:

    Jade said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.
    Yes. Again it was that detail on his property claims that made me faintly nauseous

    This is a while class of boyars that need to feel the wrath of the voter

    That said, you have the exact same class in government in Holyrood. An elite of SNP fat cats who are clearly creaming off the Scottish taxpayer. Grotesquely. And yet you won't say a word against them. Feeble
    Folk don't mind people making a bit of cash on the side. Most would if they had the chance.
    They don't like a bloke doing a full time job while pretending to be an MP. So, while not illegal, people can see Cox for what he is.
    A piss taker.
    If people earning a lot less money such as on benefits did a job on the side to bring fresh meat home to their family, these same MPs would respond how exactly?
    Well indeed. I know of folk who've been sanctioned for having their phone turned off during Christmas dinner.
    I don’t understand. Is it a reference to something somebody said?
  • Options
    Jade said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.
    Yes. Again it was that detail on his property claims that made me faintly nauseous

    This is a while class of boyars that need to feel the wrath of the voter

    That said, you have the exact same class in government in Holyrood. An elite of SNP fat cats who are clearly creaming off the Scottish taxpayer. Grotesquely. And yet you won't say a word against them. Feeble
    Folk don't mind people making a bit of cash on the side. Most would if they had the chance.
    They don't like a bloke doing a full time job while pretending to be an MP. So, while not illegal, people can see Cox for what he is.
    A piss taker.
    If people earning a lot less money such as on benefits did a job on the side to bring fresh meat home to their family, these same MPs would respond how exactly?
    Yeh, but the people on benefits are taking money from the tax payer, whereas Cox is taking money from...

    Oh wait...
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform UK has recorded 5% in a number of recent polls.

    Refuk 5+ Greens 10 = 1 seat between them. Go on. Chuck your vote away if you must.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Jade said:

    Jade said:

    MattW said:

    Jade said:

    Jade said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What's the French for "Fuck off" ?

    Boris Johnson orders Macron to beef up borders & stop migrants pouring in https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16720647/boris-johnson-macron-borders-migrants/

    You have a visceral dislike of Boris but on this he is correct

    France has a duty of care to these migrants as much as we have, and certainly the two countries should be conducting joint patrols to prevent loss of life at sea
    No. Boris just doing words as usual, no action. Truth is he knows he signs seven out of ten up to work here, he just wastes time before doing that. He should send Patel down on beaches to tell them where to start work on Monday, it will save our tax payers money
    What is your evidence for your claim 70% are signed up to work here
    The BBC said it. Are they a bot too or are you too busy to watch the news?

    The figures suggest only about a third of those arriving are not deemed to be refugees.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59257107

    Isn’t that relevant or important. I think it’s a four years wasted because of political dogma.

    And it’s also politics before a lack of humanity.
    @Jade

    The piece does not even include the word "work", never mind the rest of it.
    I think you mean I said work now? What happens then after the four years wait? They stay and they work just like they hoped when they got in the dingy, I think. Or pay for it. Is the news wrong that after long wait seven out of ten do stay and work?

    Sometimes it is said international criminal gangs are making it happen. But no one really says that enough in your opinion? The gangs have money and threat. Lots of people desperate to come here are coming in dingie boats on a sort of scale that’s a successful business. 4 years for processing and then 7 out of ten stay. Meantime where do they live, and how do they eat and live? And do locals embrace them. And how much tax payer money is all this? And it’s bad if the gangs behind it are laughing at us and rolling in it.

    I still think I am right. You saying every single one is so complicated it takes 4 years? There are no quick wins?

    Tell me where I have this all wrong?
    I only have one issue with you and that was accusing a long established poster @Philip_Thompson of being a bot

    That was out of order and maybe an apology would be nice
    Okay I understand now he’s for real. I still think his avatar makes him look very unserious. But I can’t really understand what he saying to be completely sure.

    Are you in charge in this room or something?
    Bloody hell. This AI learns swiftly!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,475
    Cyclefree said:

    So, would this be a good moment to remind Boris that if he needs an incorruptible tough Independent Commissioner to get him out of the very large hole he has dug for himself, I may be available at - obviously - Cox-like rates?

    😏

    Are you sure you won't sentence him to staying down the hole whilst you fill it in?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yShvgXZQBTs&t=90s
  • Options
    JadeJade Posts: 27
    Unpopular said:

    Jade said:

    Foxy said:

    Jade said:

    Foxy said:

    Jade said:

    MattW said:

    Jade said:

    Jade said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What's the French for "Fuck off" ?

    Boris Johnson orders Macron to beef up borders & stop migrants pouring in https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16720647/boris-johnson-macron-borders-migrants/

    You have a visceral dislike of Boris but on this he is correct

    France has a duty of care to these migrants as much as we have, and certainly the two countries should be conducting joint patrols to prevent loss of life at sea
    No. Boris just doing words as usual, no action. Truth is he knows he signs seven out of ten up to work here, he just wastes time before doing that. He should send Patel down on beaches to tell them where to start work on Monday, it will save our tax payers money
    What is your evidence for your claim 70% are signed up to work here
    The BBC said it. Are they a bot too or are you too busy to watch the news?

    The figures suggest only about a third of those arriving are not deemed to be refugees.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59257107

    Isn’t that relevant or important. I think it’s a four years wasted because of political dogma.

    And it’s also politics before a lack of humanity.
    @Jade

    The piece does not even include the word "work", never mind the rest of it.
    I think you mean I said work now? What happens then after the four years wait? They stay and they work just like they hoped when they got in the dingy, I think. Or pay for it. Is the news wrong that after long wait seven out of ten do stay and work?

    Sometimes it is said international criminal gangs are making it happen. But no one really says that enough in your opinion? The gangs have money and threat. Lots of people desperate to come here are coming in dingie boats on a sort of scale that’s a successful business. 4 years for processing and then 7 out of ten stay. Meantime where do they live, and how do they eat and live? And do locals embrace them. And how much tax payer money is all this? And it’s bad if the gangs behind it are laughing at us and rolling in it.

    I still think I am right. You saying every single one is so complicated it takes 4 years? There are no quick wins?

    Tell me where I have this all wrong?
    My church does quite a bit with refugees, and yes, 4 years is probably correct. It is a painful wait and needlessly prolonged.. In the meantime they do get a modest amount of benefits, and no right to work.
    If they come on a really big scale that is a lot of charity and patience on all sides. Not ideal. It can turn it from one thing to another thing on quantity of scale.

    Have they explained why they travel through lots of different countries just to come here? Throughout history there has been people who just have to move because it’s not safe now, but why not stop where the weather suits them? They must believe it’s safe here?

    Ideas.

    So can’t sort them into obvious quick wins heading and more complex cases?

    Why not allow them to apply for jobs, if at same time there is problem with vacancies and skill shortages? That costs tax payers much less?
    Working while claiming asylum used to be allowed, but stopped under New Labour, I think.

    The ones that I know are mostly Zimbabwean, Afghan or Pakistani Christian.
    Thinking of those places and what denomination they are, it’s obvious why the government doesn’t send them back in the end.
    They would feel safer here than there. But would they not feel just as safe in south of France and with better weather? With a blank book to write in, where would their quality of life actually be best going forward?

    There’s an old bbc play on YouTube of a policeman battling gangs in Birmingham, but his Father back in India has an idealised idea of what it’s like in UK, when he comes he gets beaten up walking down the street by thugs and you feel so sorry for him
    There's a scene in Season 4 (I think) of Ripper Street, where an Indian Army Officer comes to London as part of Victoria's Diamond Jubilee Celebrations, and to see his errant son, who moved from India. I don't know if it's historically accurate (I suspect not, though having started listening to the audiobook of the companion volume of Ken Burn's Vietnam, you never know), but he has this very patriotic idea of the British Empire... Until an officer in special branch, in response to a threat to go to the Colonial Secretary, asks 'Why would he listen to you, he's the colonial secretary and you're the colonial.' Felt sorry for the character in that moment, but I'm a sucker for scenes where a character discovers, tragically, that the world they were so sure of, that they built themselves around, does not exist. There's a similar scene, for those similarly interest, in Charité at War, a German drama about the eponymous hospital during the Second World War.
    You completely understood what I meant. People doing all that effort to come here with an idea of a future that doesn’t exist.

    Or maybe it does.
  • Options

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.

    Oh, and the 49p for milk.
    Cox has managed to tick every box:

    Vast earnings
    As a lawyer
    Working for a tax haven
    Doing it full time
    Flying around the world during covid
    Expenses troughing
    Involving London property
    And the most bizarre thing perhaps being the Chief Whip saying it was okay for Cox to go to the Virgin Isles and vote from there.

    The imagery of that compared to the difficulties millions of people have being facing is revolting.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.

    Oh, and the 49p for milk.
    Cox has managed to tick every box:

    Vast earnings
    As a lawyer
    Working for a tax haven
    Doing it full time
    Flying around the world during covid
    Expenses troughing
    Involving London property
    Would add. Making one intervention in Parliament in 2 years. That is the measure your average person makes of how hard they work.

    PS. It is lush that Boris' attacks on lawyers have rebounded.
    Most never encounter one. And if they do it is usually to move house or at bereavement. When they are very glad of one.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.

    Oh, and the 49p for milk.
    Cox has managed to tick every box:

    Vast earnings
    As a lawyer
    Working for a tax haven
    Doing it full time
    Flying around the world during covid
    Expenses troughing
    Involving London property
    Would add. Making one intervention in Parliament in 2 years. That is the measure your average person makes of how hard they work.

    PS. It is lush that Boris' attacks on lawyers have rebounded.
    Most never encounter one. And if they do it is usually to move house or at bereavement. When they are very glad of one.
    And don't forget, escaped from a Gilbert and Sullivan opera without permission.

  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.

    Oh, and the 49p for milk.
    Cox has managed to tick every box:

    Vast earnings
    As a lawyer
    Working for a tax haven
    Doing it full time
    Flying around the world during covid
    Expenses troughing
    Involving London property
    Would add. Making one intervention in Parliament in 2 years. That is the measure your average person makes of how hard they work.

    PS. It is lush that Boris' attacks on lawyers have rebounded.
    Most never encounter one. And if they do it is usually to move house or at bereavement. When they are very glad of one.
    If Cox had been doing his second job on Bideford High Street at £50ph it would have been viewed differently.
  • Options

    Pippa Crerar
    @PippaCrerar
    ·
    13m
    We can’t say it’s “just one poll”. For the time being, it’s a trend.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    As someone pointed out on Twitter earlier, unlike at various points in the last few years the Tories don’t have any UKIP or Brexit party vote to gobble up. The 35-40% they have now is the sum total of everything they’ll get in an election.

    Labour have between about 3 and 8% Green VI to garner under FPTP and provably 2% or so of the Lib Dems alongside some tactical voting. In this hyper partisan post Brexit world to have a poll with 60% voting anti-Tory starts to look a bit more tricky for them.

    Yes, that's right. I've been saying it for a while, but it's been masked by Labour's weakness, so the had-enough-of-the-Tories vote scattered in all directions. Starmer's stodgy strategy is actually proving quite good. Spend a year being boringly centrist. Pick a few fights with the left. Don't express a commitment to anything, but show you're not alarming and willing to work with the Government when they're doing the right thing. Then wait patiently until the Government demonstrably and unquestionably screws up, finally attack hard, and hey, you're the obvious alternative.

    It's only one poll, of course, but the potential for a big Tory swingback seems limited. I expect we'll see some more polls on Sunday which will tell us if it's real.
    I've always said this was the strategy, though more in hope rather than with any evidence. It's the same with the policies, go slowly, don't say much (because that unscrupulous Johnson would nick the best ones). Take it nice and slow. Wait for an election, when you're being directly compared, and then win! If the mood music is for a bombastic, cheeky public school boy chancing his arm, then Labour are fucked. If the public are wanting something more sober and studious, then could Labour squeak it? Just need to make that background music play your tune. Sleazy Tories, dodgy contracts. Once a narrative starts, it can difficult to stop it.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    dixiedean said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Proof here that once the opposition start getting poll leads, there’s no way back for the govt


    There is a way back and that requires Boris's Premiership to end

    I just do not see anyway back for him after this idiotic week
    It requires rather more self-discipline and hard work from him.

    I know, I know.

    And a proper crackdown on troughing MPs.
    In todays Yougov was this table:



    Even Tory voters think there is a lot of corruption. Johnson hasn't hit the bottom yet.
    There is a LOT more dodgy business surrounding PPE contracts than has come out yet. If you have corrupt politicians on the one hand and multi billion gbp orders on the other, the payoffs are not in the 100, 000 a year area, they are in the millions
    I was browsing the Private Eye special on the dodgy contracts and connections. There is plenty more to reach the main stream press.
    But they waste their time on Cox. Useless.
    I kind of get your position on Cox but the greedy barsteward slant must have traction. Coining an extra few million a year but still feeling the need to screw an extra £k a month from the taxpayer to pay a mortgage seems a bit...hoggish.

    Oh, and the 49p for milk.
    Cox has managed to tick every box:

    Vast earnings
    As a lawyer
    Working for a tax haven
    Doing it full time
    Flying around the world during covid
    Expenses troughing
    Involving London property
    Would add. Making one intervention in Parliament in 2 years. That is the measure your average person makes of how hard they work.

    PS. It is lush that Boris' attacks on lawyers have rebounded.
    Most never encounter one. And if they do it is usually to move house or at bereavement. When they are very glad of one.
    If Cox had been doing his second job on Bideford High Street at £50ph it would have been viewed differently.
    Precisely.
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    Starmer, the David Cameron of Labour
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    JadeJade Posts: 27
    dixiedean said:

    Jade said:

    Jade said:

    MattW said:

    Jade said:

    Jade said:

    Scott_xP said:

    What's the French for "Fuck off" ?

    Boris Johnson orders Macron to beef up borders & stop migrants pouring in https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16720647/boris-johnson-macron-borders-migrants/

    You have a visceral dislike of Boris but on this he is correct

    France has a duty of care to these migrants as much as we have, and certainly the two countries should be conducting joint patrols to prevent loss of life at sea
    No. Boris just doing words as usual, no action. Truth is he knows he signs seven out of ten up to work here, he just wastes time before doing that. He should send Patel down on beaches to tell them where to start work on Monday, it will save our tax payers money
    What is your evidence for your claim 70% are signed up to work here
    The BBC said it. Are they a bot too or are you too busy to watch the news?

    The figures suggest only about a third of those arriving are not deemed to be refugees.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59257107

    Isn’t that relevant or important. I think it’s a four years wasted because of political dogma.

    And it’s also politics before a lack of humanity.
    @Jade

    The piece does not even include the word "work", never mind the rest of it.
    I think you mean I said work now? What happens then after the four years wait? They stay and they work just like they hoped when they got in the dingy, I think. Or pay for it. Is the news wrong that after long wait seven out of ten do stay and work?

    Sometimes it is said international criminal gangs are making it happen. But no one really says that enough in your opinion? The gangs have money and threat. Lots of people desperate to come here are coming in dingie boats on a sort of scale that’s a successful business. 4 years for processing and then 7 out of ten stay. Meantime where do they live, and how do they eat and live? And do locals embrace them. And how much tax payer money is all this? And it’s bad if the gangs behind it are laughing at us and rolling in it.

    I still think I am right. You saying every single one is so complicated it takes 4 years? There are no quick wins?

    Tell me where I have this all wrong?
    I only have one issue with you and that was accusing a long established poster @Philip_Thompson of being a bot

    That was out of order and maybe an apology would be nice
    Okay I understand now he’s for real. I still think his avatar makes him look very unserious. But I can’t really understand what he saying to be completely sure.

    Are you in charge in this room or something?
    Bloody hell. This AI learns swiftly!
    Really Dean?

    From your enteries I had you down as a fair persons! Would a machine care as much about crisps? Has the fire destroyed all the evidence whose fault was the computer glitch
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,803

    Starmer, the David Cameron of Labour

    He's not even Labour's Ed Miliband... yet ;)
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    dr_spyn said:

    This Northern Ireland poll is worrying.

    SF 24% (-1 from August)

    DUP 18% (+5) Alliance 15% (+2) UUP 14% (-2) SDLP 12% (-1) TUV 11% (-1)

    https://twitter.com/SuzyJourno/status/1459296946577973248

    Not unprecedented. SF topped the poll at GE 2010, and at the Euros in 2019.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Ooh, looks like we have another non-human to play with…
This discussion has been closed.