Categories
Options
How the Tories will get a 20 seat bonus from the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com
How the Tories will get a 20 seat bonus from the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com
Above are two projections from Electoral Calculus of a seat projection based on the latest poll R&W poll that had LAB 2% ahead.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
*innocent face*
If it does, I find it surprising that given that change, the projected advantage to the Conservatives of the new boundaries has not changed more....
Non essential shops closing at 6pm
No more crowds in sports arenas
Work from home
Social distancing again
The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended
That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....
Jeez
https://twitter.com/DutchNewsNL/status/1459218358734311424?s=20
The sensible ones will fly in for the match, and straight back out again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701
Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans
There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January
If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html
Seats like mine (Woking) are contracting to be more town and less country, but it's still a comfortable Tory hold.
Yes yes, civil liberties, but lockdowns are FAR worse. We could beat this virus with vaccines and vaxports, and no lockdowns. We are taking an unnecessary risk with the mental health of the nation to indulge 5 million stupid selfish c*nts who won't get jabbed
Boris sounding a note of caution today - time for everyone to get the booster as soon as they can
Wales is the first area to watch if any further restrictions are to appear domestically...
The rate for the initial program - 18+ adults is very high, 93%+ (I'll run the numbers on that)
The rate for the 17-16 is still low and the 12-15 is really getting started.
"Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".
It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say
And no prospect of a Tory led government, 13 extra seats or no.
Please let this not come here. PLEASE
DO THE BLOODY VAXPORTS
Things could have turned out rather differently.
Surely that is clear enough?
Hard to say which is worse. I think the winner has to be the prosecution - arguing in a US court room that the 5th Amendment doesn't mean a right to silence?
A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
However it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still become UK PM with SNP confidence and supply.
Though the Tories would have won a majority in England (but without their own parliament unlike Scotland and Wales if they get a Tory UK government they did not vote for now)
Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 35% (-1)
LAB: 35% (-)
GRN: 10% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
And Boris falls behind Starmer in ratings
@nickeardleybbc
Met says tonight in letter to Pete Wishart: "The Metropolitan Police have considered the material available and the relevant legislation and I am now writing to inform you that there is insufficient information upon which to launch a criminal investigation."
Perhaps one day we'll be able to understand why the JCVI didn't understand the basics about how vaccination works.
Concerns about Tory sleaze are back to levels last seen in the 1990s, with twice as many voters seeing the Conservatives as disreputable as say the same about Labour.
The Conservatives have also lost their poll lead, with the two main parties neck and neck on 35 per cent of the vote, according to a YouGov survey carried on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
The findings suggest that voters have started to punish Johnson for his handling of the government’s abortive attempt to rip up the Commons ethics system to clear Owen Paterson, who was found to have breached rules against paid lobbying.
Although the government backed down after an outcry from backbench MPs and voters, the affair has focused attention on MPs’ outside earnings and wealth in a way not seen since the MPs’ expenses scandal a decade ago.
Some voters appear to blame Johnson personally, with his ratings as “best prime minister” falling four points in a month to 27 per cent. Starmer’s rating on the same measure have jumped four points to 29 per cent, according to the survey of 1,696 British adults.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/very-sleazy-tories-cost-boris-johnson-poll-lead-over-keir-starmer-5mbdfpdjb
There is no disadvantage for the Tories. So long as our voting system remains crooked and their opposition remains Labour, they’re laughing.
Big Country on the other hand have been referred to The Hague.
And surely we deserve better than both leaders at 27/29 approval ratings
I thought i must have misunderstood a subtle legal distinction. But no.
Otherwise they would have asked why every other developed world regulator was making the opposite decision.
It was amusing to see other people realising that the blue states might pass anti gun laws using the same principle.
Though you've got a fair question there. If Johnson is so sleazy, why isn't Starmer unambiguously better? If Starmer is so boring, why isn't Johnson unambiguously better? To give him his due, SKS at least raised a version of that question in his conference speech. I'm not sure that BoJo would respond to the situation as self-reflectively.
Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
https://www.ft.com/content/ac88d7d9-1d39-4aaa-a8a6-06d24d9b9ae6
https://thecritic.co.uk/power-reveals/
Which is NOT the case today. Indeed, not even his most hardened apologists on PB (or beyond) risk credibility (or tempt incredulity) by even trying to make a case for Boris Johnson as a paragon of probity (fiscal, personal, mineral OR vegetable).
That is a clear grouping on the left (and I am sure on the right) who believes their opponents do not deserve due process and are guilty solely based on their politics.
In fact (for at least one jab) -
SCOTLAND 97.44
NORTHERN IRELAND 92.32
WALES 96.69
ENGLAND 95.30
Using the mid-2019 population numbers.
After Adam Finn umming and arring every morning on breakfast TV and radio about how safe the vaccine might not be, no wonder takeup is shit.
'True' immunity from SARS-Cov 2 is difficult but vaccination is the best tool available. The JCVI thoroughly pissed in that well for schoolchildren.
There were 7 dead in England and Wales last week alone.
This may be okay, but we should use the accurate numbers rather than someone saying they vaguely remembered a figure from somewhere or other and having everyone use it as the solid data from which to make the call.
It seems clear that there is more momentum behind the sleaze story than we have had for a while. We know sleaze can destroy a government. And we know we have more sleaze to come out. The party can kill it all off with a change of leader and a sweeping brush...
That's a genuine question.
Regrettably.
On a quick skim, one figure stood out: the caseload of applications to deal with at the time of this briefing was 125,00. That's roughly 4-years worth of asylum seekers. Rather like the accused in our justice system in general, it's clear that lots of asylum seekers are being left in limbo for years on end - though I accept that this is sometimes due to appeals. But the cost, as well as the human suffering, of these interminable delays to dealing with cases is high.
AKA ignoring things we don't like.
Bit like the heady days of Swedish reporting.... days.....
What happened to Galloway's charge of Labour cheating in B&S?
To be blunt, the BBC news gave out a “in hospital with Covid figure” earlier, that in this situation is utterly meaningless and pointless them saying it?
And defines people like Paula Radcliffe and David Beckham as having “underlying health conditions.”
It’s very hard to reopen once you’ve locked down. It’s psychologically much easier to err on the side of caution. Otherwise ‘all these extra Christmas deaths are on you, Mr or Ms Dutch PM’
You do tend to be optimistic. Generally an attractive trait
- The number of staff and ICU spaces taken up by COVID is much higher than other illnesses.
- The need for anti-COVID precautions in hospitals has massively reduced capacity.
So its a multiple whammy thing -
- COVID patients needing lots of resources
- Reduction in capacity because of COVID
- Backlog of planned operations etc
- Backlog of people now being diagnosed and/or being rushed to emergency because of undiagnosed conditions.
- Staff burnt out from COVID.
It’s just ideological gumpf holding back common sense?
Surely removing the PM loses as many as it gains?
The PM has many, many fans. Often people who wouldn't otherwise vote. The Tories would be barking to replace him.
And, he is the personification of Brexit too.
Which means: BOOSTER EFFECT
Which should mean hospitalisations should further decouple from cases.
Yes, slowly catching up on second vaccinations. Seems that quite a few people are not bothering.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1459219455188385793?t=OpiPFdwzpugWZX2Nosoj3g&s=19
The equivalent in the UK would be around 75,000
I am convinced there's a lot yet to come out about Randox btw. If you are corrupt you don't fix a 600m contract for a 100,000 bung, unless you are IDS level stupid. The Aintree/jockey club link absolutely stinks. It is possible Boris learnt some of this overnight prior to sacking OP.