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How the Tories will get a 20 seat bonus from the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 12 in General
imageHow the Tories will get a 20 seat bonus from the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com

Above are two projections from Electoral Calculus of a seat projection based on the latest poll R&W poll that had LAB 2% ahead.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,348
    1st
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    They think it's Moldova...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    My first question is : does this take into account the change in the distribution of the Conservative vote (aka Red Wall) ?

    If it does, I find it surprising that given that change, the projected advantage to the Conservatives of the new boundaries has not changed more....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    An amusing Dutch Twitter thread following developments


    https://twitter.com/DutchNewsNL/status/1459218358734311424?s=20
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    I do hope Scotland make it to Qatar. If ever there was a set of supporters likely to be problematic for Qatar, it's them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    tlg86 said:

    They think it's Moldova...

    It Chisinau!
    *applause*
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,462
    Leon said:

    An amusing Dutch Twitter thread following developments


    https://twitter.com/DutchNewsNL/status/1459218358734311424?s=20

    Nice that someone still thinks it's amusing.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    Let's all make the most of the current situation here...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    My first question is : does this take into account the change in the distribution of the Conservative vote (aka Red Wall) ?

    If it does, I find it surprising that given that change, the projected advantage to the Conservatives of the new boundaries has not changed more....

    Yes, I thought the view now was it was basically minimal, maybe 10 or so?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    tlg86 said:

    I do hope Scotland make it to Qatar. If ever there was a set of supporters likely to be problematic for Qatar, it's them.

    The stories of football fans in Qatar next year are going to be hillarious.

    The sensible ones will fly in for the match, and straight back out again.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,845
    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,724
    kle4 said:

    My first question is : does this take into account the change in the distribution of the Conservative vote (aka Red Wall) ?

    If it does, I find it surprising that given that change, the projected advantage to the Conservatives of the new boundaries has not changed more....

    Yes, I thought the view now was it was basically minimal, maybe 10 or so?
    What makes the difference is the increase in seats in the South East:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html

    Seats like mine (Woking) are contracting to be more town and less country, but it's still a comfortable Tory hold.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    If the rest of Europe locks down and we don't, i'll forgive Boris bloody anything. Can't do another.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    If the rest of Europe locks down and we don't, i'll forgive Boris bloody anything. Can't do another.
    Well quite. Which is why we should be enforcing fucking vaxports, like every other nation on earth

    Yes yes, civil liberties, but lockdowns are FAR worse. We could beat this virus with vaccines and vaxports, and no lockdowns. We are taking an unnecessary risk with the mental health of the nation to indulge 5 million stupid selfish c*nts who won't get jabbed
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,462

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    More like reopening early April! Not much joy in NL.

    Boris sounding a note of caution today - time for everyone to get the booster as soon as they can

    Wales is the first area to watch if any further restrictions are to appear domestically...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    Yes, it is the children

    The rate for the initial program - 18+ adults is very high, 93%+ (I'll run the numbers on that)

    The rate for the 17-16 is still low and the 12-15 is really getting started.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,836
    edited November 12
    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    edited November 12
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    Of course we saw in the UK last year the danger of ending lockdown too soon at Christmas time - it'd be a brave Dutch politician to risk that, even with vaccines this time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    edited November 12
    No path to a majority for either Party in either scenario without the SNP.
    And no prospect of a Tory led government, 13 extra seats or no.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    edited November 12

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    Edit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    kle4 said:

    My first question is : does this take into account the change in the distribution of the Conservative vote (aka Red Wall) ?

    If it does, I find it surprising that given that change, the projected advantage to the Conservatives of the new boundaries has not changed more....

    Yes, I thought the view now was it was basically minimal, maybe 10 or so?
    My impression was that it was +10 if the last election were to be repeated. It is +13 here, so not much different really.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    FtPt
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    The judge in the Rittenhouse case continues to be the most jaw dropping arsehole imaginable.

    Slate (no alt Right site) has a good piece on the case:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/judge-bruce-schroeder-rittenhouse-trial-villain.html

    That was Wednesaday. A lot has happened since then.


    He's currently reading text messages on his iPhone as the prosecution is making aural arguments to him. He has not switched off hos ringer and the phone keeps going off.

    He lead a round of applause for a defence witness yesterday (jury was present).

    Today he's lament that he cannot remembr exactly what Rittemhoise said in his sworn testimony on Wednesday - he's sittong right next to the court stenographer.
    If Rittenhouse gets acquitted - which he should do on the evidence presented so far - it’s not because of the judge.

    It’s because there is video evidence of him being chased down the street by people obviously looking to cause harm.

    It’s because one of the chief prosecution witnesses has admitted that that Rittenhouse only pointed a gun at him when the witness aimed a gun at him, a clear case of self defence

    It’s because another prosecution witness said that one of those killed made it clear he wanted to kill Rittenhouse and used his skateboard in a manner obviously meant to cause the most serious harm.

    It’s because Wisconsin has a law regarding self defence which makes it clear that the prosecution has to make it very clear it was not self defence.

    It’s also because the prosecutor has been totally inept.

    You don’t like Rittenhouse for his politics. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have rights, like that d1ck Jeffries - who is considered a f**king contender to replace Pelosi - suggested. And yes my reaction would be the same if it was a BLM supporter shooting some Trumpsters in exactly the same circumstances.
    Lol, if a judge led a round of apllause for a BLM defence witness you would be losing your shit on here. And rightly so.
    Actually I wouldn’t. I might make a comment (I think I did when Stacey Abrams’s sister - who is a judge in Georgia - make a ruling that was clearly biased after refusing to recuse herself). But my view of the US legal system is that it is inherently biased one way or the other.

    However, the fact remains. You can’t bang on about due rights and Trump is destroying democracy and then claim Rittenhouse and his ilk has no rights. That is what Jeffries effectively said in his tweet. Everyone has rights, regardless of their politics. But if you will show me one of my posts where I have argued differently, I will happily climb down from the high horse.
    I literally have said nothing about the guilt or not of Rittenhouse. My comments are entirely about the conduct of the judge.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    Of course we saw in the UK last year the danger of ending lockdown too soon at Christmas time - it'd be a brave Dutch politician to risk that, even with vaccines this time.
    Yes, I'd wager money they don't reopen in December. Such a risk, all the psych pressure will be on them to stay locked down

    Please let this not come here. PLEASE

    DO THE BLOODY VAXPORTS
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,348
    Just thinking, if we'd had these new boundaries back in 2017 Tezzie wouldn't have needed the bowler hats.

    Things could have turned out rather differently.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Chris said:

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
    The JCVI were very clear that they couldn't be very clear about why they couldn't report on whether or not boosters and child vaccination were a good idea.

    Surely that is clear enough?
  • glwglw Posts: 7,776
    edited November 12

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    Mind you our antibody rates are very high, something like 98% of the UK adult population has antibodies according to blood test data, wwhich is probably the best data going. Children are the only group where there is still a large number of people with naive immunity, and that group is getting smaller day by day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Alistair said:

    FtPt

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    The judge in the Rittenhouse case continues to be the most jaw dropping arsehole imaginable.

    Slate (no alt Right site) has a good piece on the case:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/judge-bruce-schroeder-rittenhouse-trial-villain.html

    That was Wednesaday. A lot has happened since then.


    He's currently reading text messages on his iPhone as the prosecution is making aural arguments to him. He has not switched off hos ringer and the phone keeps going off.

    He lead a round of applause for a defence witness yesterday (jury was present).

    Today he's lament that he cannot remembr exactly what Rittemhoise said in his sworn testimony on Wednesday - he's sittong right next to the court stenographer.
    If Rittenhouse gets acquitted - which he should do on the evidence presented so far - it’s not because of the judge.

    It’s because there is video evidence of him being chased down the street by people obviously looking to cause harm.

    It’s because one of the chief prosecution witnesses has admitted that that Rittenhouse only pointed a gun at him when the witness aimed a gun at him, a clear case of self defence

    It’s because another prosecution witness said that one of those killed made it clear he wanted to kill Rittenhouse and used his skateboard in a manner obviously meant to cause the most serious harm.

    It’s because Wisconsin has a law regarding self defence which makes it clear that the prosecution has to make it very clear it was not self defence.

    It’s also because the prosecutor has been totally inept.

    You don’t like Rittenhouse for his politics. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have rights, like that d1ck Jeffries - who is considered a f**king contender to replace Pelosi - suggested. And yes my reaction would be the same if it was a BLM supporter shooting some Trumpsters in exactly the same circumstances.
    Lol, if a judge led a round of apllause for a BLM defence witness you would be losing your shit on here. And rightly so.
    Actually I wouldn’t. I might make a comment (I think I did when Stacey Abrams’s sister - who is a judge in Georgia - make a ruling that was clearly biased after refusing to recuse herself). But my view of the US legal system is that it is inherently biased one way or the other.

    However, the fact remains. You can’t bang on about due rights and Trump is destroying democracy and then claim Rittenhouse and his ilk has no rights. That is what Jeffries effectively said in his tweet. Everyone has rights, regardless of their politics. But if you will show me one of my posts where I have argued differently, I will happily climb down from the high horse.
    I literally have said nothing about the guilt or not of Rittenhouse. My comments are entirely about the conduct of the judge.
    The Judge is being stupid. The prosecution acted like idiots - either they didn't review the material for the case and interrogate their witnesses, or they went ahead, knowing that they couldn't prove murder.

    Hard to say which is worse. I think the winner has to be the prosecution - arguing in a US court room that the 5th Amendment doesn't mean a right to silence?
  • JadeJade Posts: 27

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    I don’t wish to be argumentative, and by all means if I have the 7/10 fact wrong call me out, but the most important point is being missed here. Seven out of ten of all these boat people this government is giving Global Britain passports and working visas to? These people have been tested and proved their desire to make us the engine room of the world by literally putting their life on the line to be here - it’s exactly the right sort of immigration needed to fill all those low paid low skill vacancies and boost our economy?

    A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 12
    Yes on the new boundaries the Tories would win most seats even if Labour are narrowly ahead across the UK as in the new Redfield poll.

    However it would still be a hung parliament and Starmer could still become UK PM with SNP confidence and supply.

    Though the Tories would have won a majority in England (but without their own parliament unlike Scotland and Wales if they get a Tory UK government they did not vote for now)

  • Britain Elects

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 35% (-1)
    LAB: 35% (-)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-)

    And Boris falls behind Starmer in ratings

  • @nickeardleybbc

    Met says tonight in letter to Pete Wishart: "The Metropolitan Police have considered the material available and the relevant legislation and I am now writing to inform you that there is insufficient information upon which to launch a criminal investigation."
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,462
    edited November 12

    Chris said:

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
    The JCVI were very clear that they couldn't be very clear about why they couldn't report on whether or not boosters and child vaccination were a good idea.

    Surely that is clear enough?
    Indeed - the only thing that seemed clear was that they didn't think it was even worth considering the effect of transmission to other sections of the population.

    Perhaps one day we'll be able to understand why the JCVI didn't understand the basics about how vaccination works.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,925
    edited November 12
    Two thirds of voters now see the Tories as “very sleazy” as Boris Johnson’s ratings fall behind Sir Keir Starmer’s for the first time since the January lockdown.

    Concerns about Tory sleaze are back to levels last seen in the 1990s, with twice as many voters seeing the Conservatives as disreputable as say the same about Labour.

    The Conservatives have also lost their poll lead, with the two main parties neck and neck on 35 per cent of the vote, according to a YouGov survey carried on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

    The findings suggest that voters have started to punish Johnson for his handling of the government’s abortive attempt to rip up the Commons ethics system to clear Owen Paterson, who was found to have breached rules against paid lobbying.

    Although the government backed down after an outcry from backbench MPs and voters, the affair has focused attention on MPs’ outside earnings and wealth in a way not seen since the MPs’ expenses scandal a decade ago.

    Some voters appear to blame Johnson personally, with his ratings as “best prime minister” falling four points in a month to 27 per cent. Starmer’s rating on the same measure have jumped four points to 29 per cent, according to the survey of 1,696 British adults.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/very-sleazy-tories-cost-boris-johnson-poll-lead-over-keir-starmer-5mbdfpdjb
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    tlg86 said:

    They think it's Moldova...

    It Chisinau!
    Very good sir.
  • Anthony Wells, director of political research at YouGov, said: “This is the worst Conservative score on being seen as sleazy and disreputable since YouGov first asked it in 2006 and, as far as I call tell, since Gallup asked the same question during the John Major years.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    RobD said:

    Bonus? Don't you mean how the Tories will lose a 20 seat disadvantage with the new boundaries?

    *innocent face*

    In a system that already gives them a huge advantage (cf. 2019 when anti-Brexit or pro-second vote party votes exceeded pro-Brexit ones, yet now everybody thinks the votes endorsed Brexit), the boundaries is tinkering around the edges.

    There is no disadvantage for the Tories. So long as our voting system remains crooked and their opposition remains Labour, they’re laughing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500


    @nickeardleybbc

    Met says tonight in letter to Pete Wishart: "The Metropolitan Police have considered the material available and the relevant legislation and I am now writing to inform you that there is insufficient information upon which to launch a criminal investigation."

    Yeah. Runrig weren't that bad.
    Big Country on the other hand have been referred to The Hague.
  • Two thirds of voters now see the Tories as “very sleazy” as Boris Johnson’s ratings fall behind Sir Keir Starmer’s for the first time since the January lockdown.

    Concerns about Tory sleaze are back to levels last seen in the 1990s, with twice as many voters seeing the Conservatives as disreputable as say the same about Labour.

    The Conservatives have also lost their poll lead, with the two main parties neck and neck on 35 per cent of the vote, according to a YouGov survey carried on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

    The findings suggest that voters have started to punish Johnson for his handling of the government’s abortive attempt to rip up the Commons ethics system to clear Owen Paterson, who was found to have breached rules against paid lobbying.

    Although the government backed down after an outcry from backbench MPs and voters, the affair has focused attention on MPs’ outside earnings and wealth in a way not seen since the MPs’ expenses scandal a decade ago.

    Some voters appear to blame Johnson personally, with his ratings as “best prime minister” falling four points in a month to 27 per cent. Starmer’s rating on the same measure have jumped four points to 29 per cent, according to the survey of 1,696 British adults.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/very-sleazy-tories-cost-boris-johnson-poll-lead-over-keir-starmer-5mbdfpdjb

    Boris 'Ratner' his brand and he should pay the price with his Premiership

    And surely we deserve better than both leaders at 27/29 approval ratings
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,348
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    They think it's Moldova...

    It Chisinau!
    Very good sir.
    I think I've reached my peak. It's downhill from here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    This Dutch news spooks me. I'm going tae the gym
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Alistair said:

    FtPt

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    The judge in the Rittenhouse case continues to be the most jaw dropping arsehole imaginable.

    Slate (no alt Right site) has a good piece on the case:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/judge-bruce-schroeder-rittenhouse-trial-villain.html

    That was Wednesaday. A lot has happened since then.


    He's currently reading text messages on his iPhone as the prosecution is making aural arguments to him. He has not switched off hos ringer and the phone keeps going off.

    He lead a round of applause for a defence witness yesterday (jury was present).

    Today he's lament that he cannot remembr exactly what Rittemhoise said in his sworn testimony on Wednesday - he's sittong right next to the court stenographer.
    If Rittenhouse gets acquitted - which he should do on the evidence presented so far - it’s not because of the judge.

    It’s because there is video evidence of him being chased down the street by people obviously looking to cause harm.

    It’s because one of the chief prosecution witnesses has admitted that that Rittenhouse only pointed a gun at him when the witness aimed a gun at him, a clear case of self defence

    It’s because another prosecution witness said that one of those killed made it clear he wanted to kill Rittenhouse and used his skateboard in a manner obviously meant to cause the most serious harm.

    It’s because Wisconsin has a law regarding self defence which makes it clear that the prosecution has to make it very clear it was not self defence.

    It’s also because the prosecutor has been totally inept.

    You don’t like Rittenhouse for his politics. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have rights, like that d1ck Jeffries - who is considered a f**king contender to replace Pelosi - suggested. And yes my reaction would be the same if it was a BLM supporter shooting some Trumpsters in exactly the same circumstances.
    Lol, if a judge led a round of apllause for a BLM defence witness you would be losing your shit on here. And rightly so.
    Actually I wouldn’t. I might make a comment (I think I did when Stacey Abrams’s sister - who is a judge in Georgia - make a ruling that was clearly biased after refusing to recuse herself). But my view of the US legal system is that it is inherently biased one way or the other.

    However, the fact remains. You can’t bang on about due rights and Trump is destroying democracy and then claim Rittenhouse and his ilk has no rights. That is what Jeffries effectively said in his tweet. Everyone has rights, regardless of their politics. But if you will show me one of my posts where I have argued differently, I will happily climb down from the high horse.
    I literally have said nothing about the guilt or not of Rittenhouse. My comments are entirely about the conduct of the judge.
    The Judge is being stupid. The prosecution acted like idiots - either they didn't review the material for the case and interrogate their witnesses, or they went ahead, knowing that they couldn't prove murder.

    Hard to say which is worse. I think the winner has to be the prosecution - arguing in a US court room that the 5th Amendment doesn't mean a right to silence?
    Yeah, the right to silence stuff by the prosecution made my jaw hit the floor when I read it.

    I thought i must have misunderstood a subtle legal distinction. But no.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    😂 If Brexit means we become a haven for refugees maybe it's not so bad after all. But I'm not sure it's what leave voters had in mind...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
    The JCVI were very clear that they couldn't be very clear about why they couldn't report on whether or not boosters and child vaccination were a good idea.

    Surely that is clear enough?
    Indeed - the only thing that seemed clear was that they didn't think it was even worth considering the effect of transmission to other sections of the population.

    Perhaps one day we'll be able to understand why the JCVI didn't understand the basics about how vaccination works.
    They didn't want the boosters or the child vaccinations. The mistaken numbers on the probable child infection rates etc were simply what they wanted to see, so they didn't question them.

    Otherwise they would have asked why every other developed world regulator was making the opposite decision.
  • dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    My first question is : does this take into account the change in the distribution of the Conservative vote (aka Red Wall) ?

    If it does, I find it surprising that given that change, the projected advantage to the Conservatives of the new boundaries has not changed more....

    Yes, I thought the view now was it was basically minimal, maybe 10 or so?
    My impression was that it was +10 if the last election were to be repeated. It is +13 here, so not much different really.
    Every mickle makes a muckle.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    FtPt

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    The judge in the Rittenhouse case continues to be the most jaw dropping arsehole imaginable.

    Slate (no alt Right site) has a good piece on the case:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/judge-bruce-schroeder-rittenhouse-trial-villain.html

    That was Wednesaday. A lot has happened since then.


    He's currently reading text messages on his iPhone as the prosecution is making aural arguments to him. He has not switched off hos ringer and the phone keeps going off.

    He lead a round of applause for a defence witness yesterday (jury was present).

    Today he's lament that he cannot remembr exactly what Rittemhoise said in his sworn testimony on Wednesday - he's sittong right next to the court stenographer.
    If Rittenhouse gets acquitted - which he should do on the evidence presented so far - it’s not because of the judge.

    It’s because there is video evidence of him being chased down the street by people obviously looking to cause harm.

    It’s because one of the chief prosecution witnesses has admitted that that Rittenhouse only pointed a gun at him when the witness aimed a gun at him, a clear case of self defence

    It’s because another prosecution witness said that one of those killed made it clear he wanted to kill Rittenhouse and used his skateboard in a manner obviously meant to cause the most serious harm.

    It’s because Wisconsin has a law regarding self defence which makes it clear that the prosecution has to make it very clear it was not self defence.

    It’s also because the prosecutor has been totally inept.

    You don’t like Rittenhouse for his politics. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have rights, like that d1ck Jeffries - who is considered a f**king contender to replace Pelosi - suggested. And yes my reaction would be the same if it was a BLM supporter shooting some Trumpsters in exactly the same circumstances.
    Lol, if a judge led a round of apllause for a BLM defence witness you would be losing your shit on here. And rightly so.
    Actually I wouldn’t. I might make a comment (I think I did when Stacey Abrams’s sister - who is a judge in Georgia - make a ruling that was clearly biased after refusing to recuse herself). But my view of the US legal system is that it is inherently biased one way or the other.

    However, the fact remains. You can’t bang on about due rights and Trump is destroying democracy and then claim Rittenhouse and his ilk has no rights. That is what Jeffries effectively said in his tweet. Everyone has rights, regardless of their politics. But if you will show me one of my posts where I have argued differently, I will happily climb down from the high horse.
    I literally have said nothing about the guilt or not of Rittenhouse. My comments are entirely about the conduct of the judge.
    The Judge is being stupid. The prosecution acted like idiots - either they didn't review the material for the case and interrogate their witnesses, or they went ahead, knowing that they couldn't prove murder.

    Hard to say which is worse. I think the winner has to be the prosecution - arguing in a US court room that the 5th Amendment doesn't mean a right to silence?
    Yeah, the right to silence stuff by the prosecution made my jaw hit the floor when I read it.

    I thought i must have misunderstood a subtle legal distinction. But no.
    I think the NRA's amicus brief on the Texas abortion law was quite the eye opener.

    It was amusing to see other people realising that the blue states might pass anti gun laws using the same principle.
  • Two thirds of voters now see the Tories as “very sleazy” as Boris Johnson’s ratings fall behind Sir Keir Starmer’s for the first time since the January lockdown.

    Concerns about Tory sleaze are back to levels last seen in the 1990s, with twice as many voters seeing the Conservatives as disreputable as say the same about Labour.

    The Conservatives have also lost their poll lead, with the two main parties neck and neck on 35 per cent of the vote, according to a YouGov survey carried on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

    The findings suggest that voters have started to punish Johnson for his handling of the government’s abortive attempt to rip up the Commons ethics system to clear Owen Paterson, who was found to have breached rules against paid lobbying.

    Although the government backed down after an outcry from backbench MPs and voters, the affair has focused attention on MPs’ outside earnings and wealth in a way not seen since the MPs’ expenses scandal a decade ago.

    Some voters appear to blame Johnson personally, with his ratings as “best prime minister” falling four points in a month to 27 per cent. Starmer’s rating on the same measure have jumped four points to 29 per cent, according to the survey of 1,696 British adults.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/very-sleazy-tories-cost-boris-johnson-poll-lead-over-keir-starmer-5mbdfpdjb

    Boris 'Ratner' his brand and he should pay the price with his Premiership

    And surely we deserve better than both leaders at 27/29 approval ratings
    Are they approval ratings? Looking at the options isn't it 27% Johnson better than Starmer, 29% Starmer better than Johnson, 41% Not sure who is better. I don't think it tells us where they are on the scale from equally brilliant to equally awful.

    Though you've got a fair question there. If Johnson is so sleazy, why isn't Starmer unambiguously better? If Starmer is so boring, why isn't Johnson unambiguously better? To give him his due, SKS at least raised a version of that question in his conference speech. I'm not sure that BoJo would respond to the situation as self-reflectively.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,476

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    They think it's Moldova...

    It Chisinau!
    Very good sir.
    I think I've reached my peak. It's downhill from here.
    So you’re basically Boris circa May this year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    I think it rather all depends on hospitalisations (not cases). If hospitalisations remain at pretty low levels, then I would think they'll reopen with strict Vaxports and mask mandates. It is worth remembering that while Dutch cases have increased 30-fold from the June/July lows, the numbers in hospital have less than doubled.

    Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
    The JCVI were very clear that they couldn't be very clear about why they couldn't report on whether or not boosters and child vaccination were a good idea.

    Surely that is clear enough?
    Indeed - the only thing that seemed clear was that they didn't think it was even worth considering the effect of transmission to other sections of the population.

    Perhaps one day we'll be able to understand why the JCVI didn't understand the basics about how vaccination works.
    Because they wanted the kids to get it as soon as possible when the adults were largely protected by vaccines and in summer/autumn when the health service was (relatively) better placed to cope.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589
    Jade said:

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    I don’t wish to be argumentative, and by all means if I have the 7/10 fact wrong call me out, but the most important point is being missed here. Seven out of ten of all these boat people this government is giving Global Britain passports and working visas to? These people have been tested and proved their desire to make us the engine room of the world by literally putting their life on the line to be here - it’s exactly the right sort of immigration needed to fill all those low paid low skill vacancies and boost our economy?

    A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
    It is worth reading the full House of Commons briefing on this - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01403/SN01403.pdf
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
    The JCVI were very clear that they couldn't be very clear about why they couldn't report on whether or not boosters and child vaccination were a good idea.

    Surely that is clear enough?
    Indeed - the only thing that seemed clear was that they didn't think it was even worth considering the effect of transmission to other sections of the population.

    Perhaps one day we'll be able to understand why the JCVI didn't understand the basics about how vaccination works.
    They didn't want the boosters or the child vaccinations. The mistaken numbers on the probable child infection rates etc were simply what they wanted to see, so they didn't question them.

    Otherwise they would have asked why every other developed world regulator was making the opposite decision.
    The net benefit to kids is very slim. I wonder if European countries took a more collectivist decision than we did. Arguably, you should vaccinate kids, even if there is a net deficit, if there is a greater benefit to other age groups from slowing transmission
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    Of course we saw in the UK last year the danger of ending lockdown too soon at Christmas time - it'd be a brave Dutch politician to risk that, even with vaccines this time.
    Yes, I'd wager money they don't reopen in December. Such a risk, all the psych pressure will be on them to stay locked down

    Please let this not come here. PLEASE

    DO THE BLOODY VAXPORTS
    I am consistently optimistic (often too optimistic), but unless the number in hospital really starts moving upwards, then I think there will be a lot of pressure to reopen. (Especially if combined with Vaxports.)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001
    edited November 12

    Two thirds of voters now see the Tories as “very sleazy” as Boris Johnson’s ratings fall behind Sir Keir Starmer’s for the first time since the January lockdown.

    Concerns about Tory sleaze are back to levels last seen in the 1990s, with twice as many voters seeing the Conservatives as disreputable as say the same about Labour.

    The Conservatives have also lost their poll lead, with the two main parties neck and neck on 35 per cent of the vote, according to a YouGov survey carried on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

    The findings suggest that voters have started to punish Johnson for his handling of the government’s abortive attempt to rip up the Commons ethics system to clear Owen Paterson, who was found to have breached rules against paid lobbying.

    Although the government backed down after an outcry from backbench MPs and voters, the affair has focused attention on MPs’ outside earnings and wealth in a way not seen since the MPs’ expenses scandal a decade ago.

    Some voters appear to blame Johnson personally, with his ratings as “best prime minister” falling four points in a month to 27 per cent. Starmer’s rating on the same measure have jumped four points to 29 per cent, according to the survey of 1,696 British adults.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/very-sleazy-tories-cost-boris-johnson-poll-lead-over-keir-starmer-5mbdfpdjb

    So 66% of voters think the Tories are very sleazy. 65% would currently not vote for them - almost a perfect match. Presumably if we can persuade 80% of voters to think the Tories are very sleazy, which shouldn't be too difficult, then Tory VI would reach a very satisfactory 20%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Two thirds of voters now see the Tories as “very sleazy” as Boris Johnson’s ratings fall behind Sir Keir Starmer’s for the first time since the January lockdown.

    Concerns about Tory sleaze are back to levels last seen in the 1990s, with twice as many voters seeing the Conservatives as disreputable as say the same about Labour.

    The Conservatives have also lost their poll lead, with the two main parties neck and neck on 35 per cent of the vote, according to a YouGov survey carried on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

    The findings suggest that voters have started to punish Johnson for his handling of the government’s abortive attempt to rip up the Commons ethics system to clear Owen Paterson, who was found to have breached rules against paid lobbying.

    Although the government backed down after an outcry from backbench MPs and voters, the affair has focused attention on MPs’ outside earnings and wealth in a way not seen since the MPs’ expenses scandal a decade ago.

    Some voters appear to blame Johnson personally, with his ratings as “best prime minister” falling four points in a month to 27 per cent. Starmer’s rating on the same measure have jumped four points to 29 per cent, according to the survey of 1,696 British adults.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/very-sleazy-tories-cost-boris-johnson-poll-lead-over-keir-starmer-5mbdfpdjb

    Poll respondents have started to punish Johnson, not voters. But it would be justified if voters did too.
  • Leon said:

    This Dutch news spooks me. I'm going tae the gym

    Why would it spook you? After all you have been a leading advocate that actually the numbers in the UK are falling and actually we're better than the Europeans in having high numbers of cases in the autumn etc etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Scoop: Conservatives Owen Paterson and Steve Brine are under investigation over whether they undertook unregistered lobbying while serving as MPs, the latest fallout in a growing “sleaze” scandal enveloping Westminster

    https://www.ft.com/content/ac88d7d9-1d39-4aaa-a8a6-06d24d9b9ae6
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742
    A first for me - I'm drinking a dry red passito. Of course I have drunk sweet white passito but this is a revelation. So intense. Fruity but dry, tannins and spice (it's an IGT Puglia). Is this the new trendy thing?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    I see we're having another wave of "People Who Worked Closely With Boris Johnson Over The Years And Supported Him To Be Prime Minister Express Horror At How Boris Johnson Governs". I wrote about this six months ago, and it still stands.
    https://thecritic.co.uk/power-reveals/
  • Anthony Wells, director of political research at YouGov, said: “This is the worst Conservative score on being seen as sleazy and disreputable since YouGov first asked it in 2006 and, as far as I call tell, since Gallup asked the same question during the John Major years.”

    One difference (at least) between the Major years and the Johnson years re: sleaze, is that a quarter century ago, voters generally did NOT think that the Prime Minister was personally sleazy.

    Which is NOT the case today. Indeed, not even his most hardened apologists on PB (or beyond) risk credibility (or tempt incredulity) by even trying to make a case for Boris Johnson as a paragon of probity (fiscal, personal, mineral OR vegetable).
  • isamisam Posts: 38,544
    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701
    Alistair said:

    FtPt

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    The judge in the Rittenhouse case continues to be the most jaw dropping arsehole imaginable.

    Slate (no alt Right site) has a good piece on the case:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/judge-bruce-schroeder-rittenhouse-trial-villain.html

    That was Wednesaday. A lot has happened since then.


    He's currently reading text messages on his iPhone as the prosecution is making aural arguments to him. He has not switched off hos ringer and the phone keeps going off.

    He lead a round of applause for a defence witness yesterday (jury was present).

    Today he's lament that he cannot remembr exactly what Rittemhoise said in his sworn testimony on Wednesday - he's sittong right next to the court stenographer.
    If Rittenhouse gets acquitted - which he should do on the evidence presented so far - it’s not because of the judge.

    It’s because there is video evidence of him being chased down the street by people obviously looking to cause harm.

    It’s because one of the chief prosecution witnesses has admitted that that Rittenhouse only pointed a gun at him when the witness aimed a gun at him, a clear case of self defence

    It’s because another prosecution witness said that one of those killed made it clear he wanted to kill Rittenhouse and used his skateboard in a manner obviously meant to cause the most serious harm.

    It’s because Wisconsin has a law regarding self defence which makes it clear that the prosecution has to make it very clear it was not self defence.

    It’s also because the prosecutor has been totally inept.

    You don’t like Rittenhouse for his politics. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have rights, like that d1ck Jeffries - who is considered a f**king contender to replace Pelosi - suggested. And yes my reaction would be the same if it was a BLM supporter shooting some Trumpsters in exactly the same circumstances.
    Lol, if a judge led a round of apllause for a BLM defence witness you would be losing your shit on here. And rightly so.
    Actually I wouldn’t. I might make a comment (I think I did when Stacey Abrams’s sister - who is a judge in Georgia - make a ruling that was clearly biased after refusing to recuse herself). But my view of the US legal system is that it is inherently biased one way or the other.

    However, the fact remains. You can’t bang on about due rights and Trump is destroying democracy and then claim Rittenhouse and his ilk has no rights. That is what Jeffries effectively said in his tweet. Everyone has rights, regardless of their politics. But if you will show me one of my posts where I have argued differently, I will happily climb down from the high horse.
    I literally have said nothing about the guilt or not of Rittenhouse. My comments are entirely about the conduct of the judge.
    I didn’t say you did. Reread my message. It was about Raheem Jeffries saying they should lock away Rittenhouse and throw away the key. The same Jeffries who banged on about ending mass incarceration.

    That is a clear grouping on the left (and I am sure on the right) who believes their opponents do not deserve due process and are guilty solely based on their politics.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Perhaps of mild interest. Someone was king about the vaccination program and I remember the 18+ vaccination rate as 93%+

    In fact (for at least one jab) -

    SCOTLAND 97.44
    NORTHERN IRELAND 92.32
    WALES 96.69
    ENGLAND 95.30

    Using the mid-2019 population numbers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,498
    alex_ said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    According to this the UK vaccination rate is well below several European countries. Do we have an explanation for this? Is it to do with children?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701

    It's to do with the inexplicable dithering over the vaccination of school-age children, over a period of months, which has catapulted us from leading the field to perhaps the worst vaccination rate in Western Europe (depending where one places Austria geographically).
    The JCVI were very clear that they couldn't be very clear about why they couldn't report on whether or not boosters and child vaccination were a good idea.

    Surely that is clear enough?
    Indeed - the only thing that seemed clear was that they didn't think it was even worth considering the effect of transmission to other sections of the population.

    Perhaps one day we'll be able to understand why the JCVI didn't understand the basics about how vaccination works.
    Because they wanted the kids to get it as soon as possible when the adults were largely protected by vaccines and in summer/autumn when the health service was (relatively) better placed to cope.
    Unless your infection rates are ridiculously high, you can bang through vaccinations a heck of a lot quicker than infections. Also there's no infectious period with vaccination (No spreading out to the parental group...)
    After Adam Finn umming and arring every morning on breakfast TV and radio about how safe the vaccine might not be, no wonder takeup is shit.
    'True' immunity from SARS-Cov 2 is difficult but vaccination is the best tool available. The JCVI thoroughly pissed in that well for schoolchildren.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    Perhaps of mild interest. Someone was king about the vaccination program and I remember the 18+ vaccination rate as 93%+

    In fact (for at least one jab) -

    SCOTLAND 97.44
    NORTHERN IRELAND 92.32
    WALES 96.69
    ENGLAND 95.30

    Using the mid-2019 population numbers.

    Stunning figures!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701

    A first for me - I'm drinking a dry red passito. Of course I have drunk sweet white passito but this is a revelation. So intense. Fruity but dry, tannins and spice (it's an IGT Puglia). Is this the new trendy thing?

    Who cares, it sounds delicious!!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    Looking at the previous thread, where on Earth are people getting the number of 6 kids dead with covid in six months?
    There were 7 dead in England and Wales last week alone.
    This may be okay, but we should use the accurate numbers rather than someone saying they vaguely remembered a figure from somewhere or other and having everyone use it as the solid data from which to make the call.

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701
    isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    And yet another poll showing that Labour is still not making inroads. Which suggests that this is something that BJ can sort out quickly if he chooses. A bit of mea culpa, we will look into the rules and soon it is forgotten. Unlike Starmer, whose problems look more structural in their nature.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    kle4 said:

    Perhaps of mild interest. Someone was king about the vaccination program and I remember the 18+ vaccination rate as 93%+

    In fact (for at least one jab) -

    SCOTLAND 97.44
    NORTHERN IRELAND 92.32
    WALES 96.69
    ENGLAND 95.30

    Using the mid-2019 population numbers.

    Stunning figures!
    I think this explains why the Government haven't been especially keen on VaxPorts - not many refusenik adults to sweep up.
  • isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    It doesn't have to be tough times for the Tories. This is all Boris. Remove him, replace him with someone credible and reputable like Sunak and the win is back on again.

    It seems clear that there is more momentum behind the sleaze story than we have had for a while. We know sleaze can destroy a government. And we know we have more sleaze to come out. The party can kill it all off with a change of leader and a sweeping brush...
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,097
    Best thing for Tories would be BoJo goes soon but not obviously as result of a scandal (sudden long Covid return?) then new leader makes an example of a couple of malefactors. New PM then needs a mandate so election on old boundaries if opinion polls look good otherwise 2023.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632

    Looking at the previous thread, where on Earth are people getting the number of 6 kids dead with covid in six months?
    There were 7 dead in England and Wales last week alone.
    This may be okay, but we should use the accurate numbers rather than someone saying they vaguely remembered a figure from somewhere or other and having everyone use it as the solid data from which to make the call.

    It's six with no underlying health issues iirc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    MrEd said:

    isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    And yet another poll showing that Labour is still not making inroads. Which suggests that this is something that BJ can sort out quickly if he chooses. A bit of mea culpa, we will look into the rules and soon it is forgotten. Unlike Starmer, whose problems look more structural in their nature.
    A bit of mea culpa needed is a structural problem for the PM though. He just doesn't do that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,498

    Looking at the previous thread, where on Earth are people getting the number of 6 kids dead with covid in six months?
    There were 7 dead in England and Wales last week alone.
    This may be okay, but we should use the accurate numbers rather than someone saying they vaguely remembered a figure from somewhere or other and having everyone use it as the solid data from which to make the call.

    It's six with no underlying health issues iirc.
    & has the JCVI recommended the full course for children with underlying health issues using the same definition that's been applied here ?

    That's a genuine question.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 319

    Leon said:

    This Dutch news spooks me. I'm going tae the gym

    Why would it spook you? After all you have been a leading advocate that actually the numbers in the UK are falling and actually we're better than the Europeans in having high numbers of cases in the autumn etc etc.
    Maybe because this is all too familiar? We're far from out of this.

    Regrettably.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,001
    rcs1000 said:

    Jade said:

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    I don’t wish to be argumentative, and by all means if I have the 7/10 fact wrong call me out, but the most important point is being missed here. Seven out of ten of all these boat people this government is giving Global Britain passports and working visas to? These people have been tested and proved their desire to make us the engine room of the world by literally putting their life on the line to be here - it’s exactly the right sort of immigration needed to fill all those low paid low skill vacancies and boost our economy?

    A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
    It is worth reading the full House of Commons briefing on this - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01403/SN01403.pdf
    That's really helpful, thanks - useful to get some facts on asylum seekers rather than the usual gut feelings.

    On a quick skim, one figure stood out: the caseload of applications to deal with at the time of this briefing was 125,00. That's roughly 4-years worth of asylum seekers. Rather like the accused in our justice system in general, it's clear that lots of asylum seekers are being left in limbo for years on end - though I accept that this is sometimes due to appeals. But the cost, as well as the human suffering, of these interminable delays to dealing with cases is high.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240

    Looking at the previous thread, where on Earth are people getting the number of 6 kids dead with covid in six months?
    There were 7 dead in England and Wales last week alone.
    This may be okay, but we should use the accurate numbers rather than someone saying they vaguely remembered a figure from somewhere or other and having everyone use it as the solid data from which to make the call.

    It's six with no underlying health issues iirc.
    In WeirdCOVID land, people with health issues aren't people.

    AKA ignoring things we don't like.

    Bit like the heady days of Swedish reporting.... days.....
  • isamisam Posts: 38,544

    isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    It doesn't have to be tough times for the Tories. This is all Boris. Remove him, replace him with someone credible and reputable like Sunak and the win is back on again.

    It seems clear that there is more momentum behind the sleaze story than we have had for a while. We know sleaze can destroy a government. And we know we have more sleaze to come out. The party can kill it all off with a change of leader and a sweeping brush...
    No, when Boris took over he was the obvious choice, yet almost everyone on here said he was a liability, so PB is very skewed to the anti Boris narrative. There are always ebbs and flows to government popularity, just when you are watching one of the down times, it looks impossible for it to change. 6 months ago Sir Keir looked doomed, a skin of the teeth By Election victory gave him a bit of confidence and now he is on the up.

    What happened to Galloway's charge of Labour cheating in B&S?
  • JadeJade Posts: 27
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    I think it rather all depends on hospitalisations (not cases). If hospitalisations remain at pretty low levels, then I would think they'll reopen with strict Vaxports and mask mandates. It is worth remembering that while Dutch cases have increased 30-fold from the June/July lows, the numbers in hospital have less than doubled.

    Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
    If they put just Covid hospitalisation number in the media, surely that is misleading? The key is the total in specific treatment, including flu and the other respiratory illnesses - because it’s the totality, not just Covid figure, making the services creak, ambulances not coming quickly enough, unloading quickly enough, needy getting right treatment the government and scientists will be looking at when they make their lockdown decisions?

    To be blunt, the BBC news gave out a “in hospital with Covid figure” earlier, that in this situation is utterly meaningless and pointless them saying it?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742
    MrEd said:

    A first for me - I'm drinking a dry red passito. Of course I have drunk sweet white passito but this is a revelation. So intense. Fruity but dry, tannins and spice (it's an IGT Puglia). Is this the new trendy thing?

    Who cares, it sounds delicious!!
    Yes it is. I don't normally like "fruity" wine but this is pretty complex and structured.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835

    Looking at the previous thread, where on Earth are people getting the number of 6 kids dead with covid in six months?
    There were 7 dead in England and Wales last week alone.
    This may be okay, but we should use the accurate numbers rather than someone saying they vaguely remembered a figure from somewhere or other and having everyone use it as the solid data from which to make the call.

    It's six with no underlying health issues iirc.
    If it’s about the bollocks from the Telegraph, that’s also only up until last February - way, way before most of the infections in school-aged kids.

    And defines people like Paula Radcliffe and David Beckham as having “underlying health conditions.”
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    I think it rather all depends on hospitalisations (not cases). If hospitalisations remain at pretty low levels, then I would think they'll reopen with strict Vaxports and mask mandates. It is worth remembering that while Dutch cases have increased 30-fold from the June/July lows, the numbers in hospital have less than doubled.

    Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
    I’m not arguing the data. As we agreed before, they are probably already over-reacting. But what’s to stop them over-reacting again?

    It’s very hard to reopen once you’ve locked down. It’s psychologically much easier to err on the side of caution. Otherwise ‘all these extra Christmas deaths are on you, Mr or Ms Dutch PM’

    You do tend to be optimistic. Generally an attractive trait
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    Jade said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    I think it rather all depends on hospitalisations (not cases). If hospitalisations remain at pretty low levels, then I would think they'll reopen with strict Vaxports and mask mandates. It is worth remembering that while Dutch cases have increased 30-fold from the June/July lows, the numbers in hospital have less than doubled.

    Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
    If they put just Covid hospitalisation number in the media, surely that is misleading? The key is the total in specific treatment, including flu and the other respiratory illnesses - because it’s the totality, not just Covid figure, making the services creak, ambulances not coming quickly enough, unloading quickly enough, needy getting right treatment the government and scientists will be looking at when they make their lockdown decisions?

    To be blunt, the BBC news gave out a “in hospital with Covid figure” earlier, that in this situation is utterly meaningless and pointless them saying it?
    Fear we are over the COVID crisis. Just beginning a health care crisis.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Jade said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    I think it rather all depends on hospitalisations (not cases). If hospitalisations remain at pretty low levels, then I would think they'll reopen with strict Vaxports and mask mandates. It is worth remembering that while Dutch cases have increased 30-fold from the June/July lows, the numbers in hospital have less than doubled.

    Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
    If they put just Covid hospitalisation number in the media, surely that is misleading? The key is the total in specific treatment, including flu and the other respiratory illnesses - because it’s the totality, not just Covid figure, making the services creak, ambulances not coming quickly enough, unloading quickly enough, needy getting right treatment the government and scientists will be looking at when they make their lockdown decisions?

    To be blunt, the BBC news gave out a “in hospital with Covid figure” earlier, that in this situation is utterly meaningless and pointless them saying it?
    I think you will also find that -

    - The number of staff and ICU spaces taken up by COVID is much higher than other illnesses.
    - The need for anti-COVID precautions in hospitals has massively reduced capacity.

    So its a multiple whammy thing -

    - COVID patients needing lots of resources
    - Reduction in capacity because of COVID
    - Backlog of planned operations etc
    - Backlog of people now being diagnosed and/or being rushed to emergency because of undiagnosed conditions.
    - Staff burnt out from COVID.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    edited November 12

    Perhaps of mild interest. Someone was king about the vaccination program and I remember the 18+ vaccination rate as 93%+

    In fact (for at least one jab) -

    SCOTLAND 97.44
    NORTHERN IRELAND 92.32
    WALES 96.69
    ENGLAND 95.30

    Using the mid-2019 population numbers.

    Remarkable and encouraging stats. Thankyou. It does imply that hardly any kids are jabbed, tho. And lots of people are missing 2nd jabs?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,589

    rcs1000 said:

    Jade said:

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    I don’t wish to be argumentative, and by all means if I have the 7/10 fact wrong call me out, but the most important point is being missed here. Seven out of ten of all these boat people this government is giving Global Britain passports and working visas to? These people have been tested and proved their desire to make us the engine room of the world by literally putting their life on the line to be here - it’s exactly the right sort of immigration needed to fill all those low paid low skill vacancies and boost our economy?

    A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
    It is worth reading the full House of Commons briefing on this - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01403/SN01403.pdf
    That's really helpful, thanks - useful to get some facts on asylum seekers rather than the usual gut feelings.

    On a quick skim, one figure stood out: the caseload of applications to deal with at the time of this briefing was 125,00. That's roughly 4-years worth of asylum seekers. Rather like the accused in our justice system in general, it's clear that lots of asylum seekers are being left in limbo for years on end - though I accept that this is sometimes due to appeals. But the cost, as well as the human suffering, of these interminable delays to dealing with cases is high.
    That's spot on. The system is massively underfunded, and that's the biggest problem. It's a classic false economy: "Looking for savings? Oh, we'll pull some money out of the asylum and refugee processing bucket." But by doing this, you create more pull for migrants. Because the longer they're here, the easier it is for them to argue that they have roots in the community and should stay. If you could get 80% of cases decided in 90 days, then the UK would be a lot less attractive destination for economic migrants.
  • JadeJade Posts: 27

    rcs1000 said:

    Jade said:

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    I don’t wish to be argumentative, and by all means if I have the 7/10 fact wrong call me out, but the most important point is being missed here. Seven out of ten of all these boat people this government is giving Global Britain passports and working visas to? These people have been tested and proved their desire to make us the engine room of the world by literally putting their life on the line to be here - it’s exactly the right sort of immigration needed to fill all those low paid low skill vacancies and boost our economy?

    A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
    It is worth reading the full House of Commons briefing on this - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01403/SN01403.pdf
    That's really helpful, thanks - useful to get some facts on asylum seekers rather than the usual gut feelings.

    On a quick skim, one figure stood out: the caseload of applications to deal with at the time of this briefing was 125,00. That's roughly 4-years worth of asylum seekers. Rather like the accused in our justice system in general, it's clear that lots of asylum seekers are being left in limbo for years on end - though I accept that this is sometimes due to appeals. But the cost, as well as the human suffering, of these interminable delays to dealing with cases is high.
    You are absolutely right Al, they could be driving lorries, serving meals, playing football for Sutton. If the eventual outcome is so obviously stay and make Britain Great Again, and so clear now after four years the planes take off with just 3 people being repatriated, and by then just the ones pleased for the free flight home, the common sense approach is to have Pretti Patel on the beaches handing out work permits and passports, and save all that wasted time and money.

    It’s just ideological gumpf holding back common sense?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,382
    dixiedean said:

    Jade said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    All shops, bars, restaurants in Holland closing at 8pm

    Non essential shops closing at 6pm

    No more crowds in sports arenas

    Work from home

    Social distancing again


    The Dutch government will "revisit" this on December 6th. No guarantee that those measures won't be extended

    That's a proper lockdown. And it might go on for many weeks....

    Jeez

    From previous experience, it takes about a month for a lockdown to start cutting into the number. Hence the failure of 2 week "circuit breakers".
    Indeed. And, from previous experience, once governments do a lockdown, they tend to extend them, as it's the easiest thing, rather than open up and take the risk. Hence nearly ALL of them get extended

    Also, December 6th is a mad time to reopen, unless you're VERY confident, because it is the peak of Christmas party season, and everyone will rush out to drink eggnog in crowded Jenever bars in Jordaans

    There must be a high probability the Dutch Govt will extend these measures over Christmas, just to be safe. Reopen in mid January

    If I was a Dutchman, I'd be quite depressed tonight
    I think it rather all depends on hospitalisations (not cases). If hospitalisations remain at pretty low levels, then I would think they'll reopen with strict Vaxports and mask mandates. It is worth remembering that while Dutch cases have increased 30-fold from the June/July lows, the numbers in hospital have less than doubled.

    Now, we can all say "lag yada yada yada", but cases have been rising for quite some time in the Netherlands. And just as with the UK, the case numbers have risen a lot faster than hospitalisations. There are just 1,400 people (in total) in hospital with Covid in the Netherlands. And the number increased by just 33 yesterday. That's down 90% from the peaks.
    If they put just Covid hospitalisation number in the media, surely that is misleading? The key is the total in specific treatment, including flu and the other respiratory illnesses - because it’s the totality, not just Covid figure, making the services creak, ambulances not coming quickly enough, unloading quickly enough, needy getting right treatment the government and scientists will be looking at when they make their lockdown decisions?

    To be blunt, the BBC news gave out a “in hospital with Covid figure” earlier, that in this situation is utterly meaningless and pointless them saying it?
    Fear we are over the COVID crisis. Just beginning a health care crisis.
    So saying, what is the point of GP practices these days?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500

    isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    It doesn't have to be tough times for the Tories. This is all Boris. Remove him, replace him with someone credible and reputable like Sunak and the win is back on again.

    It seems clear that there is more momentum behind the sleaze story than we have had for a while. We know sleaze can destroy a government. And we know we have more sleaze to come out. The party can kill it all off with a change of leader and a sweeping brush...
    Really?
    Surely removing the PM loses as many as it gains?
    The PM has many, many fans. Often people who wouldn't otherwise vote. The Tories would be barking to replace him.
    And, he is the personification of Brexit too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,498
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jade said:

    What an interesting article this is, in contrast to the rhetoric about "securing our borders".

    "Everyone is saying to me that since Brexit it is easier to find safety in the UK".

    It appears that not only has Brexit been acting as an increasing pull factor since 2016, but that the Dublin agreement to resettle both migrants and refugees in European safe countries was already no longer being fully implemented, two or three years before the official exit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/brexit-easier-small-boat-crossings-to-reach-uk-refugees-say

    I don’t wish to be argumentative, and by all means if I have the 7/10 fact wrong call me out, but the most important point is being missed here. Seven out of ten of all these boat people this government is giving Global Britain passports and working visas to? These people have been tested and proved their desire to make us the engine room of the world by literally putting their life on the line to be here - it’s exactly the right sort of immigration needed to fill all those low paid low skill vacancies and boost our economy?

    A record 1200 in a week, the government is surely doing the right thing allowing nearly 700 of these to stay, very neatly managing this under the radar of a press and media who can be very silly when discussing these things?
    It is worth reading the full House of Commons briefing on this - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01403/SN01403.pdf
    That's really helpful, thanks - useful to get some facts on asylum seekers rather than the usual gut feelings.

    On a quick skim, one figure stood out: the caseload of applications to deal with at the time of this briefing was 125,00. That's roughly 4-years worth of asylum seekers. Rather like the accused in our justice system in general, it's clear that lots of asylum seekers are being left in limbo for years on end - though I accept that this is sometimes due to appeals. But the cost, as well as the human suffering, of these interminable delays to dealing with cases is high.
    That's spot on. The system is massively underfunded, and that's the biggest problem. It's a classic false economy: "Looking for savings? Oh, we'll pull some money out of the asylum and refugee processing bucket." But by doing this, you create more pull for migrants. Because the longer they're here, the easier it is for them to argue that they have roots in the community and should stay. If you could get 80% of cases decided in 90 days, then the UK would be a lot less attractive destination for economic migrants.
    The Holiday Inn in Wath seem to be doing a roaring trade out of it all according to my colleague who lives near there.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    Anyway, in separate discussion - the uptick in cases is conspicuously absent in older people - all of whom are continuing to see cases fall, and fall faster and faster the older they get.

    Which means: BOOSTER EFFECT

    Which should mean hospitalisations should further decouple from cases.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,240
    Leon said:

    Perhaps of mild interest. Someone was king about the vaccination program and I remember the 18+ vaccination rate as 93%+

    In fact (for at least one jab) -

    SCOTLAND 97.44
    NORTHERN IRELAND 92.32
    WALES 96.69
    ENGLAND 95.30

    Using the mid-2019 population numbers.

    Remarkable and encouraging stats. Thankyou. It does imply that hardly any kids are jabbed, tho. And lots of people are missing 2nd jabs?
    The thing to remember is that they are slightly exaggerated by the fact that we are using ONS Mid-2019 in 2021. IIRC one age group in England is over 100%

    Yes, slowly catching up on second vaccinations. Seems that quite a few people are not bothering.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    It doesn't have to be tough times for the Tories. This is all Boris. Remove him, replace him with someone credible and reputable like Sunak and the win is back on again.

    It seems clear that there is more momentum behind the sleaze story than we have had for a while. We know sleaze can destroy a government. And we know we have more sleaze to come out. The party can kill it all off with a change of leader and a sweeping brush...
    No, when Boris took over he was the obvious choice, yet almost everyone on here said he was a liability, so PB is very skewed to the anti Boris narrative. There are always ebbs and flows to government popularity, just when you are watching one of the down times, it looks impossible for it to change. 6 months ago Sir Keir looked doomed, a skin of the teeth By Election victory gave him a bit of confidence and now he is on the up.

    What happened to Galloway's charge of Labour cheating in B&S?
    This is GuidoFawkes take

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1459219455188385793?t=OpiPFdwzpugWZX2Nosoj3g&s=19
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,085
    5400 cases in Ireland. A big spike. Only a few days last winter were worse

    The equivalent in the UK would be around 75,000
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,811
    MrEd said:

    isam said:

    Tough times for Boris and the Tories. The question is, are they just mid term blues or something more permanent? I am sure all those who were desperate to see Thatcher and Cameron fail would have claimed their mid term dips were permanent during the 83, 87 and 15 electoral cycles, but they weren't. That doesn't mean this isn't the beginning of the end for Boris though - Is "holding your nerve" the same as "marrying the hand"?

    And yet another poll showing that Labour is still not making inroads. Which suggests that this is something that BJ can sort out quickly if he chooses. A bit of mea culpa, we will look into the rules and soon it is forgotten. Unlike Starmer, whose problems look more structural in their nature.
    It's an ugly contest, though. If Boris sinks far enough SKS just has to stand still to start looking the better option. Old proverb: Starmers don't win elections, Borises lose them.

    I am convinced there's a lot yet to come out about Randox btw. If you are corrupt you don't fix a 600m contract for a 100,000 bung, unless you are IDS level stupid. The Aintree/jockey club link absolutely stinks. It is possible Boris learnt some of this overnight prior to sacking OP.
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