And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
Simply, children at school mix with far more people in far closer range than the vast majority of adults. They run around breathing heavily, they shout, they scream, the play games which involve close physical proximity. Basically, they behave as little Covid spreading machines.
If you run out of hosts in schools, then it's massively less easy for outbreaks to flare up. It gives me an enormous amount of confidence that the UK will not see a fourth wave.
I suspect the number of children who haven't had it yet is higher than you might expect because of paranoid parenting.
I though the seroprevalence studies had antibodies north of 60%. Given that we have the vaccination programme going on now, I would hope that future outbreaks in schools would be limited.
33,155 (the total, not the difference fortunately.)
Is that a published figure or your guess ?
That is the published figure.
Cases, hospitalisations and the body count are all still down on the seven day average measure. Total numbers in hospital also still in gentle decline. Long may it remain so.
Cases tick up again, deaths down, hospitalisations down
Hmm
Hospitalisations lag cases. We've been doing this long enough for you to know this.
Hospitalisations are not nailed on, however. Not in the age of vaccines and not when so many oldsters have boosters, and not when so many cases are in the young, who don't to to hozzie
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Two or three weeks as per the Guardian. But we know how these things often get extended
Yes, our lockdown last year was just supposed to be a few weeks and it lasted until April with the final unlockdown not until July.
But that was because we were going through the whole vaccination process.
The Netherlands has higher percentage of population vaxxed than we do, they started later than us, and all the evidence is that Pfizer's protection wanes slightly less quickly than AZ.
If hospitalisations aren't going through the roof, then it's hard to see the political motivation to maintain lockdown measures.
The issue is that we've taken millions of cases in the unvaccinated from June to now spread over a time where airborne viruses have a transmission disadvantage and initial viral loads are lower. They are taking those same cases in their unvaccinated all at once in the winter where the virus has huge transmission advantages and initial viral loads will be orders of magnitude higher than outdoor transmission in the summer. Having 100k people use the healthcare system over a period of 6 months is just about within the bounds of capacity, having 100k people use it within 6 weeks is going to end in disaster.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
And we are seeing it.
But remember, Pfizer - even at a three week gap - is massively good at preventing hospitalisations.
Look at the Netherlands. Hospital admissions for Covid today are 172, and the total number of people in hospital being treated for Covid is 1,402 (up 33 on yesterday). That's not that many. (And just as in the UK, the number being admitted has not moved up at the same rate as cases.)
Cases tick up again, deaths down, hospitalisations down
Hmm
Stop using case reporting date.
Even using specimen date there is a clear increase now. If you look back to Summer time we seem to have seen oscillating case numbers in line with school holidays. I would hope with the acquired immunity amongst school children that the size of the oscillations will get smaller over time.
I don't think it is likely that we will jump higher than previous levels of cases as behaviours have not changed since the end of the Summer. Will the Christmas party season change that?
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
And we are seeing it.
But remember, Pfizer - even at a three week gap - is massively good at preventing hospitalisations.
Look at the Netherlands. Hospital admissions for Covid today are 172, and the total number of people in hospital being treated for Covid is 1,402 (up 33 on yesterday). That's not that many. (And just as in the UK, the number being admitted has not moved up at the same rate as cases.)
Indeed. I'm not quite sure why the Netherlands are going for a quasi-lockdown, with those figures
Is their health system close to collapse from 1400 people in hospital? I doubt it. That must be a strain but it's not apocalyptic
This is one reason why I think there may be lockdowns - and even semi-cancelled Christmases - across Europe. They are twitchier than us, perhaps. Also we've been through greater trauma than lots of them, which has maybe hardened us a bit?
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Belated thanks to Cyclefree for the interesting header. I think I'm the only contributor who is openly a former member (there may be some in drag), so a couple of comments:
* The job of an MP eats your whole life if you let it, and doing it merely competently is certainly a 60-hour/week job. * No decent MP of any party wants to be paid to raise issues in the House, directly, indirectly, by nudge and wink, or in any other way. * Being out of date in your professional life when you lose is a serious issue which should be a warning to any serious candidate. Doing some work on the side in your old profession, or a potential new one, is not evil and may be common sense. I started doing regular translations at weekends around 2008 as I could see I was unlikely to hold the seat (even though we nearly did in the end). * The losing-touch-with-work issue becomes more acute the longer you're in Parliament, so restricting MPs to prior contacts doesn't really address that problem. * An Outside Interests Commissioner sounds a reasonable solution, at least for any kind of work connected in any way with political life. I translated a brochure on holidays in Sri Lanka for someone - I'm not sure that asking the Commissioner for permission would have been a good use of anyone's time. Default should be that activity unrelated to Parliament or politics is allowed (but must still be declared), activity related to Parliament usually not. * A common issue is that the outside interest doesn't pay the MP but the constituency association/party to help them get re-elected. This is well-established and above board for numerous donors and trade unions. I think it's probably part of the democratic process, so long as it's declared (as now) - but needs to be combined with tight spending limits that really work. (One of my largest contributors was a UKIP supporter who happened to be an old friend - he disagreed with me on pretty much everything and would have been astonished if I'd tried to put his views in Parliament, but he wished me well.)
Cases tick up again, deaths down, hospitalisations down
Hmm
Stop using case reporting date.
Even using specimen date there is a clear increase now. If you look back to Summer time we seem to have seen oscillating case numbers in line with school holidays. I would hope with the acquired immunity amongst school children that the size of the oscillations will get smaller over time.
I don't think it is likely that we will jump higher than previous levels of cases as behaviours have not changed since the end of the Summer. Will the Christmas party season change that?
+1
And a lot of this weeks chart will be the result of children catching it from their friends when back at school on November 1st /3rd with positive tests arriving a week or so later.
This is UK specimen date cases. Look at the 2nd and 3rd grey bars (incomplete data) and they are already higher than the same days a week before. The increase is currently a small one but let's see how it pans out. Having said that I still think that cases now isn't the most concerned metric but instead should be hospitalisations which despite a bad day yesterday are still trending downwards.
Cases tick up again, deaths down, hospitalisations down
Hmm
Stop using case reporting date.
Even using specimen date there is a clear increase now. If you look back to Summer time we seem to have seen oscillating case numbers in line with school holidays. I would hope with the acquired immunity amongst school children that the size of the oscillations will get smaller over time.
I don't think it is likely that we will jump higher than previous levels of cases as behaviours have not changed since the end of the Summer. Will the Christmas party season change that?
+1
And a lot of this weeks chart will be the result of children catching it from their friends when back at school on November 1st /3rd with positive tests arriving a week or so later.
I thought the little rascals had all had it by now according to some experts on here ?
Cases tick up again, deaths down, hospitalisations down
Hmm
Hospitalisations lag cases. We've been doing this long enough for you to know this.
Hospitalisations are not nailed on, however. Not in the age of vaccines and not when so many oldsters have boosters, and not when so many cases are in the young, who don't to to hozzie
You are mature enough to grasp this
7 day average Cases peaked on the 17th.
When did 7 day average for admissions peak (hint, not on the 17th).
All things are possible but tp try and draw an inference about the future trajectory of hospitalisations based on 3 days of rising reported date cases numbers and todays admissions is about as accurate as casting yarrow stalks.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
And we are seeing it.
But remember, Pfizer - even at a three week gap - is massively good at preventing hospitalisations.
Look at the Netherlands. Hospital admissions for Covid today are 172, and the total number of people in hospital being treated for Covid is 1,402 (up 33 on yesterday). That's not that many. (And just as in the UK, the number being admitted has not moved up at the same rate as cases.)
Indeed. I'm not quite sure why the Netherlands are going for a quasi-lockdown, with those figures
Is their health system close to collapse from 1400 people in hospital? I doubt it. That must be a strain but it's not apocalyptic
This is one reason why I think there may be lockdowns - and even semi-cancelled Christmases - across Europe. They are twitchier than us, perhaps. Also we've been through greater trauma than lots of them, which has maybe hardened us a bit?
We shall see
I think that's spot on: they are twitchier.
Now hospital admissions are a lagging indicator. And I don't know Dutch numbers by age cohort (which would be fascinating to know). So, it's possible that it will shoot up.
But my guess is that the Netherlands will follow the same path as the French, the New Yorkers, the Californians, the Israelis etc., and impose incredibly restrictive Vaxports. Basically, if you want to go to any private establishment with many people there, then you'll need to prove vaccination status.
If you can't be bothered to use reliable data, then you look like Robert Peston.
That may have been the harshest insult ever used in the history of PB.
I have Alistair Haimes tweet from September 2020 to hand which references falling admissions in the face of rising case numbers that I am very close to busting out.
Good header from @Cyclefree but I personally don't think there's much wrong with either the rules on MP 2nd jobs or their enforcement. Eg Paterson transgressed and he was caught. BJ & his cronies then intervened in bad faith. Far from the system not working it was (in their eyes) working only too well. So they tried to neuter it and get rid of the independent person in charge. This, together with corruption around government contracts, is the scandal and it's a humdinger.
What's the way forward on standards in public life? Well it's no surprise that they plummet when we have a PM utterly devoid of them himself. There's the problem right there. So the answer isn't new rules & new systems, it lies with the voters from whom he derives his power. Via first opinion polls and then voting booths they need to deliver a clear message in the requisite simple 3 word format for our times: Taxi For Johnson.
While I agree that the person at the top really matters, the rules are not working.
First they don't stop it happening, which is what we should be aiming for. Not catching after the event. Pre-approval makes the boundaries effective.
Second, what's the punishment? An absence from the House. Big bloody deal. The penalty needs to be financial ie the return of the money made.
Third, the rules seem to have a default assumption that MPs should use their status as MPs to get other paid work. I would like the assumption to be the other way around. Paid work only if it has nothing to do with being an MP and if you want to fight the corner of pressure groups, companies etc you do that as part of your job not in return for payment.
Yep, I don't disagree with this, I wouldn't even oppose a ban on 2nd jobs, just to really nail any last semblance of Conflict of Interest, but I'm keen for the focus to stay on Johnson and I do think removing his baleful influence is (easily) the biggest single thing that would improve matters.
Can you point us to somewhere with a set of rules that demonstrably work better?
(IIRC back to the convo in 2010, that might have been Norway.)
* An Outside Interests Commissioner sounds a reasonable solution, at least for any kind of work connected in any way with political life. I translated a brochure on holidays in Sri Lanka for someone - I'm not sure that asking the Commissioner for permission would have been a good use of anyone's time. Default should be that activity unrelated to Parliament or politics is allowed (but must still be declared), activity related to Parliament usually not.
I suspect more work of a type that has been previously approved would be a mere formality rather than an investigation - it's the sort of thing that should be automatically approved to ensure time is available for the more awkward cases.
This is UK specimen date cases. Look at the 2nd and 3rd grey bars (incomplete data) and they are already higher than the same days a week before. The increase is currently a small one but let's see how it pans out. Having said that I still think that cases now isn't the most concerned metric but instead should be hospitalisations which despite a bad day yesterday are still trending downwards.
Indeed - the problem is the variation in reporting data. There might be very little to add, there might be tons.
So it is very hard to draw any conclusions until the data is relatively "set" - 4-5 days old.
Really quite extraordinary that that isn't headline news, given it's from the horse's mouth, and how often the argument of a false prospectus has been completed dismissed by the media in favour of the one of Hard Brexit being "democracy".
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Yes, that is a fair point. And the UK should have followed the example of France and the US in allowing kids to be vaccinated earlier.
But way more than six kids died in road traffic accidents in the last six months. Those deaths could all have been avoided by restricting motor vehicles to a 20 miles per hour top speed. And yet I don't see you advocating for that.
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Government is all about trade-offs, including deeply unpleasant ones. One in two million children dying of Covid and no lockdown, or one in four or five million children dying of Covid and lockdown from Christmas til Easter. Which is worse?
Cases tick up again, deaths down, hospitalisations down
Hmm
Hospitalisations lag cases. We've been doing this long enough for you to know this.
Hospitalisations are not nailed on, however. Not in the age of vaccines and not when so many oldsters have boosters, and not when so many cases are in the young, who don't to to hozzie
You are mature enough to grasp this
7 day average Cases peaked on the 17th.
When did 7 day average for admissions peak (hint, not on the 17th).
All things are possible but tp try and draw an inference about the future trajectory of hospitalisations based on 3 days of rising reported date cases numbers and todays admissions is about as accurate as casting yarrow stalks.
I think the most interesting measure is the number in hospital. And yes, it lags. And that, in the UK, peaked exactly two weeks later on 31 October.
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Government is all about trade-offs, including deeply unpleasant ones. One in two million children dying of Covid and no lockdown, or one in four or five million children dying of Covid and lockdown from Christmas til Easter. Which is worse?
Yes, 5 kids dying is terrible. A bitter tragedy for 5 families. But it happens every day
ScottXp seems to be advocating something like near-perpetual lockdown, and no schools? That would mean much more human suffering
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
For the last time, I am just relaying what is on today's coronavirus dashboard. Perhaps I should have said that in my original comment, but I thought the timing - right after 4pm, when it resets, made that obvious
Again, for the last time. The government GRAPH does show an uptick in cases, albeit still a small fall "in the last 7 days"
However with deaths the 7 day figure is 1090: down 8.9% from the prior week And with hospitalisations, the 7 day figure is 6,427, down 12.4% from the prior week
That's it. That's what I said. There is no cause for any nerd to be agitated. And yes, I appreciate there are millions of nuances lying beneath these figures
But way more than six kids died in road traffic accidents in the last six months. Those deaths could all have been avoided by restricting motor vehicles to a 20 miles per hour top speed. And yet I don't see you advocating for that.
Edinburgh has 20mph limits everywhere. It's a total nightmare
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
For the last time, I am just relaying what is on today's coronavirus dashboard. Perhaps I should have said that in my original comment, but I thought the timing - right after 4pm, when it resets, made that obvious
Again, for the last time. The government GRAPH does show an uptick in cases, albeit still a small fall "in the last 7 days"
However with deaths the 7 day figure is 1090: down 8.9% from the prior week And with hospitalisations, the 7 day figure is 6,427, down 12.4% from the prior week
That's it. That's what I said. There is no cause for any nerd to be agitated. And yes, I appreciate there are millions of nuances lying beneath these figures
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
For the last time, I am just relaying what is on today's coronavirus dashboard. Perhaps I should have said that in my original comment, but I thought the timing - right after 4pm, when it resets, made that obvious
Again, for the last time. The government GRAPH does show an uptick in cases, albeit still a small fall "in the last 7 days"
However with deaths the 7 day figure is 1090: down 8.9% from the prior week And with hospitalisations, the 7 day figure is 6,427, down 12.4% from the prior week
That's it. That's what I said. There is no cause for any nerd to be agitated. And yes, I appreciate there are millions of nuances lying beneath these figures
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Has Belarus indicated why it doesn't regard itself as a suitable destination for those fleeing persecution?
I wouldn't have thought so, on two grounds:
1. It's a dictatorship, why would Lukashenko feel any such need to justify himself? 2. They don't need to anyway because none of the migrants wants to stay regardless.
Clearly the argument, when they all freeze to death in the swamps and forests of the border, will be that the migrants wanted to go to the EU so it's all the EU's fault. Lovely, innocent Belarus merely offered them safe passage.
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
It's more about not using ridiculous metrics, like one day of data from Germany. Where the reporting day data is so spiky that it is close too meaningless.
It's all very nice to be the first to run down the street with your hair on fire etc. But waiting to see what the actual reality is, is to be recommended.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
And we are seeing it.
But remember, Pfizer - even at a three week gap - is massively good at preventing hospitalisations.
Look at the Netherlands. Hospital admissions for Covid today are 172, and the total number of people in hospital being treated for Covid is 1,402 (up 33 on yesterday). That's not that many. (And just as in the UK, the number being admitted has not moved up at the same rate as cases.)
Indeed. I'm not quite sure why the Netherlands are going for a quasi-lockdown, with those figures
Is their health system close to collapse from 1400 people in hospital? I doubt it. That must be a strain but it's not apocalyptic
This is one reason why I think there may be lockdowns - and even semi-cancelled Christmases - across Europe. They are twitchier than us, perhaps. Also we've been through greater trauma than lots of them, which has maybe hardened us a bit?
We shall see
I think that's spot on: they are twitchier.
Now hospital admissions are a lagging indicator. And I don't know Dutch numbers by age cohort (which would be fascinating to know). So, it's possible that it will shoot up.
But my guess is that the Netherlands will follow the same path as the French, the New Yorkers, the Californians, the Israelis etc., and impose incredibly restrictive Vaxports. Basically, if you want to go to any private establishment with many people there, then you'll need to prove vaccination status.
Not sure about the Netherlands but Germany has maybe 4 times as many unvaccinated over 60s as the UK. That's enough to overwhelm the health system with Delta. I expect 2g and 2g+ rules to become more and more common. Not sure what cancelling Christmas means, but some Christmas markets will probably be cancelled, if they haven't already been. The vaccinated are increasingly willing to blame the unvaccinated for any restrictions - excluding unvaccinated from more things is going to be popular with the majority I suspect.
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
It's more about not using ridiculous metrics, like one day of data from Germany. Where the reporting day data is so spiky that it is close too meaningless.
It's all very nice to be the first to run down the street with your hair on fire etc. But waiting to see what the actual reality is, is to be recommended.
I know, we should all shut up until you strain and puff and you do your enormous daily data dump, in the potty of PB
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
It's more about not using ridiculous metrics, like one day of data from Germany. Where the reporting day data is so spiky that it is close too meaningless.
It's all very nice to be the first to run down the street with your hair on fire etc. But waiting to see what the actual reality is, is to be recommended.
I know, we should all shut up until you strain and puff and do you enormous daily data dump, in the potty of PB
I think the reason for the "precious guardians of the data" is that when people are using data to bash other places it probably helps that the data is accurate. Its easy to say "its spiking elsewhere, we got it right". But when its going up here as well...?
It's more about not using ridiculous metrics, like one day of data from Germany. Where the reporting day data is so spiky that it is close too meaningless.
It's all very nice to be the first to run down the street with your hair on fire etc. But waiting to see what the actual reality is, is to be recommended.
I know, we should all shut up until you strain and puff and do you enormous daily data dump, in the potty of PB
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
And we are seeing it.
But remember, Pfizer - even at a three week gap - is massively good at preventing hospitalisations.
Look at the Netherlands. Hospital admissions for Covid today are 172, and the total number of people in hospital being treated for Covid is 1,402 (up 33 on yesterday). That's not that many. (And just as in the UK, the number being admitted has not moved up at the same rate as cases.)
Indeed. I'm not quite sure why the Netherlands are going for a quasi-lockdown, with those figures
Is their health system close to collapse from 1400 people in hospital? I doubt it. That must be a strain but it's not apocalyptic
This is one reason why I think there may be lockdowns - and even semi-cancelled Christmases - across Europe. They are twitchier than us, perhaps. Also we've been through greater trauma than lots of them, which has maybe hardened us a bit?
We shall see
I think that's spot on: they are twitchier.
Now hospital admissions are a lagging indicator. And I don't know Dutch numbers by age cohort (which would be fascinating to know). So, it's possible that it will shoot up.
But my guess is that the Netherlands will follow the same path as the French, the New Yorkers, the Californians, the Israelis etc., and impose incredibly restrictive Vaxports. Basically, if you want to go to any private establishment with many people there, then you'll need to prove vaccination status.
Not sure about the Netherlands but Germany has maybe 4 times as many unvaccinated over 60s as the UK. That's enough to overwhelm the health system with Delta. I expect 2g and 2g+ rules to become more and more common. Not sure what cancelling Christmas means, but some Christmas markets will probably be cancelled, if they haven't already been. The vaccinated are increasingly willing to blame the unvaccinated for any restrictions - excluding unvaccinated from more things is going to be popular with the majority I suspect.
According to the Groaniad, some Xmas markets are already cancelled
"German Christmas markets face second year of closures as Covid rates soar Many markets have already announced they will not be going ahead amid record case numbers"
Really quite extraordinary that that isn't headline news, given it's from the horse's mouth, and how often the argument of a false prospectus has been completed dismissed by the media in favour of the one of Hard Brexit being "democracy".
Horse or gift-horse?
I thought Dom was an unspeakable mendacious Brexiteer sh1t. Suddenly he speaks truth unto nations.
Really quite extraordinary that that isn't headline news, given it's from the horse's mouth, and how often the argument of a false prospectus has been completed dismissed by the media in favour of the one of Hard Brexit being "democracy".
Horse or gift-horse?
I thought Dom was an unspeakable mendacious Brexiteer sh1t. Suddenly he speaks truth unto nations.
Captain Darling: So you see, Blackadder, Field Marshall Haig is most anxious to eliminate all these German spies.
General Melchett: Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!
Captain Darling: And fortunately, one of our spies...
General Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!
Austria will impose a nationwide lockdown for people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19, becoming the first country in the world to do so, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced on Friday.
Austria will impose a nationwide lockdown for people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19, becoming the first country in the world to do so, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced on Friday.
The Austrians have got this right and the Dutch have got it wrong. End of. Indeed, the main problem with the Austrian rules is they don't go far enough. It won't hurt the anti-vaxxers enough to really bear down on the problem unless they're sent home from work without pay.
Austria will impose a nationwide lockdown for people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19, becoming the first country in the world to do so, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced on Friday.
The details are pretty stark
"A lockdown for the unvaccinated means one cannot leave one’s home unless one is going to work, shopping (for essentials), stretching one’s legs – exactly what we all had to suffer through in 2020,” Schallenberg said earlier, according to Reuters.
"The lockdown for the unvaccinated has already been formally approved in Upper Austria, where restrictions have also been announced for the entire population. This includes a legal requirement to wear an FFP2 mask in all indoor public places and a ban on events for 3 weeks."
This is UK specimen date cases. Look at the 2nd and 3rd grey bars (incomplete data) and they are already higher than the same days a week before. The increase is currently a small one but let's see how it pans out. Having said that I still think that cases now isn't the most concerned metric but instead should be hospitalisations which despite a bad day yesterday are still trending downwards.
Indeed - the problem is the variation in reporting data. There might be very little to add, there might be tons.
So it is very hard to draw any conclusions until the data is relatively "set" - 4-5 days old.
For sure 9 Nov and 10 Nov sample date numbers already higher than 7 days earlier now, and given those 7 days earlier figures will be static this will likely get a little worse by the time finalised. UK wide cases look to have started rising. Very slightly.
If boosters outpace these case rises it is quite possible Hospitalisations and deaths could fall even if we have more case rises - we'd be back in a "breaking the link" part of the cycle, reversing the recent waning of vaccine immunity.
And then school vaccination, which shows a bit of a sign of ramping up (100k first vaccinations reported yesterday) will have some effect on cases.
But I've not changed my mind on the mild plan B restrictions (plus preparing more severe Vaxport type restriction on the unvaccinated), NHS is too marginal - the posdible outcome of several months of sustained high respiratory admissions and intensive care usage is a different challenge to the short, sharp shock of massive pressure over a month or two of previous pandemic waves or the typical flu wave.
MP with stake in giant health insurer lobbied for ‘Australian-style’ care insurance
Exclusive: Tory MP Marcus Fysh ‘wrong’ not to mention interest in insurance firm when proposing insurance-friendly amendment to care levy, says ex-standards committee chair
DecrepiterJohn raised an important point earlier: This accords with my theory that Boris is not necessarily lying all the time, if we accept that lying includes knowing, let alone caring, whether what he says is true or false. Someone described it as bullshitting, which might be closer to the mark.
Without knowing what a politician (or anyone else) actually knows and believes, it can be hard to tell whether they are lying, when they say something false.
My favorite fact checker, Glenn Kessler, resolves that problem by calling factual errors "falsehoods", rather than lies. That lacks the emotional impact of calling them "lies", but avoids the problem of knowing another person's mind. And he uses a third category, "misleading", for statements that are not false, but might mislead a reader or listener.
Austria will impose a nationwide lockdown for people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19, becoming the first country in the world to do so, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced on Friday.
The details are pretty stark
"A lockdown for the unvaccinated means one cannot leave one’s home unless one is going to work, shopping (for essentials), stretching one’s legs – exactly what we all had to suffer through in 2020,” Schallenberg said earlier, according to Reuters.
"The lockdown for the unvaccinated has already been formally approved in Upper Austria, where restrictions have also been announced for the entire population. This includes a legal requirement to wear an FFP2 mask in all indoor public places and a ban on events for 3 weeks."
Your papers, please
That's not very different from New York, where you can be (and are) asked for your vaccination card on the subway.
I guess it's a whole next step up, because you literally cannot leave your home without a card in Austria.
Jes Staley exchanged 1,200 emails with Jeffrey Epstein over a four-year period with content that included unexplained terms such as “snow white”, according to people familiar with the correspondence between the former Barclays chief executive and the convicted sex offender.
Staley resigned from Barclays last week after seeing preliminary conclusions of an investigation by UK regulators, which examined whether he had mischaracterised his relationship with Epstein as purely professional. He has said he will contest the findings.
Central to the probe was a cache of emails first provided to US regulators by JPMorgan, where Staley worked for more than 30 years in various roles including head of the private bank where Epstein was a client.
Epstein died by suicide in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges that he sex-trafficked underage girls.
Neither the extent of the email traffic between the two men nor any of its content has been made public until now.
Many of the emails, sent between 2008 and 2012, were matter of fact — for example, discussing news articles or arranging to meet up for drinks — but showed a close relationship between the two men, according to the people familiar with the contents.
However, regulators have highlighted certain terms that do not have an obvious meaning. The “snow white” reference was written in a short, two-message exchange referring to a conversation the men had previously had in person, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Regulators at the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority are yet to draw conclusions over the phrase, a second person said.
Kathleen Harris, a lawyer for Staley, said: “We wish to make it expressly clear that our client had no involvement in any of the alleged crimes committed by Mr Epstein, and codewords were never used by Mr Staley in any communications with Mr Epstein, ever.” She said all the emails were innocuous.
Barclays pointed to an earlier statement that said “the investigation makes no findings that Mr Staley saw, or was aware of, any of Mr Epstein’s alleged crimes”. JPMorgan declined to comment.
As we were talking about Germany, it's worth noting that they are (slowly) beginning to get their booster programme moving. The last two days have seen about 370,000 doses given, which is up about 4x on a month ago.
By contrast the UK is average about 450,000 doses per day with a meaningfully smaller population.
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Government is all about trade-offs, including deeply unpleasant ones. One in two million children dying of Covid and no lockdown, or one in four or five million children dying of Covid and lockdown from Christmas til Easter. Which is worse?
Yes, 5 kids dying is terrible. A bitter tragedy for 5 families. But it happens every day
ScottXp seems to be advocating something like near-perpetual lockdown, and no schools? That would mean much more human suffering
Closing schools has been very harmful. I wouldn't close schools again even if covid killed 1,000 children a year.
The luxury villa where Boris Johnson stayed on holiday last month is linked to Costa del Sol property businesses owned by Zac Goldsmith’s family that engaged in a multimillion-pound tax evasion scheme, according to Spanish courts.
Court papers obtained by the Guardian show tax inspectors ordered two property companies owned by the Goldsmith family to pay €24m (£20m) in unpaid taxes and fines after investigating what they said was a suspicious property deal.
The tax authority’s findings have been upheld by one of Spain’s highest courts, with judges agreeing the companies effectively engaged in a deliberate effort to evade tax and committed “serious” violations of the law.
Documents indicate Spanish authorities are still seeking to recover the funds and could even seize parts of the family’s land, which is spread across more than 600 hectares (1,480 acres) of private woodland about 10 miles from the Marbella coastline.
A Swiss lawyer for one of the companies denied the case amounted to a “tax evasion” issue, describing it as a dispute that resulted from a mistaken land valuation by Spanish tax authorities. She said the finding against her client was “extremely hard to understand, to put it mildly”. Court papers indicate there will be a further appeal.
However, the revelation raises difficult questions for the prime minister, who has already faced criticism for refusing to declare his use of the luxury property in the MPs’ register of interests, which would require him to disclose the monetary value of the gift from the Goldsmith family.
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Government is all about trade-offs, including deeply unpleasant ones. One in two million children dying of Covid and no lockdown, or one in four or five million children dying of Covid and lockdown from Christmas til Easter. Which is worse?
Yes, 5 kids dying is terrible. A bitter tragedy for 5 families. But it happens every day
ScottXp seems to be advocating something like near-perpetual lockdown, and no schools? That would mean much more human suffering
Closing schools has been very harmful. I wouldn't close schools again even if covid killed 1,000 children a year.
Yes. I'm not sure we should ever have closed them, we must not close them again
MP with stake in giant health insurer lobbied for ‘Australian-style’ care insurance
Exclusive: Tory MP Marcus Fysh ‘wrong’ not to mention interest in insurance firm when proposing insurance-friendly amendment to care levy, says ex-standards committee chair
Hmmm. Always worth looking at the basis of claims by Open Democracy. Interesting edge case - how far do we take this?
The piece acknowledges that they do not work in the UK, and this is the Fysh interests declared in the Misc section of his register:
From 24 January 2021, beneficial interest via futures, options, contracts for difference and other holdings not registrable under Category 7: Shareholdings, related to movement in the value of:
Abaxx Technologies Inc. (Financial services, information technology, iron ore) ADA utility tokens of the Cardano blockchain network (Information technology) (until 9 May 2021) ETH utility tokens of the Ethereum blockchain network (Information technology) AGNC Investment Corp. (Mortgage and real estate investment) Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (Precious metal mining) AIA Group Ltd. (Insurance) Apple Inc. (Information technology) Alamos Gold Inc. (Precious metal mining) Albemarle Corporation (Specialty chemicals / sustainable transport energy storage) Alphabet Inc. (Information technology) Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (Precious metal mining) Bank of America Corporation (Financial services) Citigroup, Inc (Financial services) Cameco Corporation (Energy/mining) Coeur Mining Inc. (Precious metal mining) Evercore Inc. (Financial services) Franco-Nevada Corporation (Precious metal, energy and base metal mining investment) Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. (Precious metal mining) The Howard Hughes Corporation (Real estate development) Hudbay Minerals Inc. (Base and precious metal mining) Iamgold Corporation (Precious metal mining) Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (Consulting and engineering services) Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (Precious metal mining) Lowes Companies, Inc. (Consumer discretionary retail) MAG Silver Corp. (Precious metal mining) Microsoft Corporation (Information technology) Mr Cooper Group (Mortgage and real estate services) ImmunityBio, Inc. (Biotechnology healthcare and vaccines) NASDAQ 100 Index Novagold Resources Inc. (Precious metal resources) Pan American Silver Corp. (Precious metal mining) Popular, Inc (Financial services) Pretium Resources, Inc. (Precious metal mining) Russell 2000 Index Schlumberger Limited (Energy services) Seabridge Gold (Precious metal resources) S&P 500 Index SSR Mining Inc. (Precious metal mining) Van Eck Vectors Junior Gold Mining ETF (Precious metal mining index fund) Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (Precious metal mining and investment)
MP with stake in giant health insurer lobbied for ‘Australian-style’ care insurance
Exclusive: Tory MP Marcus Fysh ‘wrong’ not to mention interest in insurance firm when proposing insurance-friendly amendment to care levy, says ex-standards committee chair
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
I believe there was a report yesterday that said 6 kids died
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
Government is all about trade-offs, including deeply unpleasant ones. One in two million children dying of Covid and no lockdown, or one in four or five million children dying of Covid and lockdown from Christmas til Easter. Which is worse?
Yes, 5 kids dying is terrible. A bitter tragedy for 5 families. But it happens every day
ScottXp seems to be advocating something like near-perpetual lockdown, and no schools? That would mean much more human suffering
Closing schools has been very harmful. I wouldn't close schools again even if covid killed 1,000 children a year.
Yes. I'm not sure we should ever have closed them, we must not close them again
Yes with hindsight I wonder whether they should have remained open for all, and closing schools should certainly be the very last measure we take if we need to.
MP with stake in giant health insurer lobbied for ‘Australian-style’ care insurance
Exclusive: Tory MP Marcus Fysh ‘wrong’ not to mention interest in insurance firm when proposing insurance-friendly amendment to care levy, says ex-standards committee chair
"MP with stake in giant health insurer that does not operate in the UK..." doesn't have quite the same sensationalist ring to it, does it?
Alistair Graham, former chairman of the Committee on Standards in Public Life, told openDemocracy that Fysh’s actions were “quite wrong” and, in his view, a breach of the parliamentary code of conduct.
Graham said: “The rules of procedure would clearly require him to explain what his interest is in the matter, so, yes, I think that would be a breach of the code. Particularly where he’s seeking with an amendment to influence the policy of the government, then he’s duty-bound to declare any interest he has in the matter.”
Graham acknowledged that AIA does not currently operate in the UK, but added: “They might in the future, mightn’t they, and presumably all this questioning is that he anticipates that they will and he’ll make a big shot of money when they do that.”
Comments
Cases, hospitalisations and the body count are all still down on the seven day average measure. Total numbers in hospital also still in gentle decline. Long may it remain so.
Polling Swingback doubters proven wrong again.
I am giving HMG's figures, on the coronavirus dashboard
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
You are mature enough to grasp this
But remember, Pfizer - even at a three week gap - is massively good at preventing hospitalisations.
Look at the Netherlands. Hospital admissions for Covid today are 172, and the total number of people in hospital being treated for Covid is 1,402 (up 33 on yesterday). That's not that many. (And just as in the UK, the number being admitted has not moved up at the same rate as cases.)
Fuck off
Just look at last week's number & two week ago number and pick something between them.
Simples.
You're coming off as crazed as a Scot Nat reading too much into a Scottish subsample of six people.
I don't think it is likely that we will jump higher than previous levels of cases as behaviours have not changed since the end of the Summer. Will the Christmas party season change that?
Is their health system close to collapse from 1400 people in hospital? I doubt it. That must be a strain but it's not apocalyptic
This is one reason why I think there may be lockdowns - and even semi-cancelled Christmases - across Europe. They are twitchier than us, perhaps. Also we've been through greater trauma than lots of them, which has maybe hardened us a bit?
We shall see
There is a question whether that is a price worth paying
* The job of an MP eats your whole life if you let it, and doing it merely competently is certainly a 60-hour/week job.
* No decent MP of any party wants to be paid to raise issues in the House, directly, indirectly, by nudge and wink, or in any other way.
* Being out of date in your professional life when you lose is a serious issue which should be a warning to any serious candidate. Doing some work on the side in your old profession, or a potential new one, is not evil and may be common sense. I started doing regular translations at weekends around 2008 as I could see I was unlikely to hold the seat (even though we nearly did in the end).
* The losing-touch-with-work issue becomes more acute the longer you're in Parliament, so restricting MPs to prior contacts doesn't really address that problem.
* An Outside Interests Commissioner sounds a reasonable solution, at least for any kind of work connected in any way with political life. I translated a brochure on holidays in Sri Lanka for someone - I'm not sure that asking the Commissioner for permission would have been a good use of anyone's time. Default should be that activity unrelated to Parliament or politics is allowed (but must still be declared), activity related to Parliament usually not.
* A common issue is that the outside interest doesn't pay the MP but the constituency association/party to help them get re-elected. This is well-established and above board for numerous donors and trade unions. I think it's probably part of the democratic process, so long as it's declared (as now) - but needs to be combined with tight spending limits that really work. (One of my largest contributors was a UKIP supporter who happened to be an old friend - he disagreed with me on pretty much everything and would have been astonished if I'd tried to put his views in Parliament, but he wished me well.)
And a lot of this weeks chart will be the result of children catching it from their friends when back at school on November 1st /3rd with positive tests arriving a week or so later.
We've been doing this for twenty months.
@Dura_Ace, @Dura_Ace, @Dura_Ace
This is UK specimen date cases. Look at the 2nd and 3rd grey bars (incomplete data) and they are already higher than the same days a week before. The increase is currently a small one but let's see how it pans out. Having said that I still think that cases now isn't the most concerned metric but instead should be hospitalisations which despite a bad day yesterday are still trending downwards.
When did 7 day average for admissions peak (hint, not on the 17th).
All things are possible but tp try and draw an inference about the future trajectory of hospitalisations based on 3 days of rising reported date cases numbers and todays admissions is about as accurate as casting yarrow stalks.
Now hospital admissions are a lagging indicator. And I don't know Dutch numbers by age cohort (which would be fascinating to know). So, it's possible that it will shoot up.
But my guess is that the Netherlands will follow the same path as the French, the New Yorkers, the Californians, the Israelis etc., and impose incredibly restrictive Vaxports. Basically, if you want to go to any private establishment with many people there, then you'll need to prove vaccination status.
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1459191936972201986
The one he wanted to resign last week...
(IIRC back to the convo in 2010, that might have been Norway.)
You're like seven year old girls with dolls, but this time it's the Collective of PB Pinheads and Geeks
NO, IT'S MINE, CAN'T PLAY
Every time you think it's hit a peak...
So it is very hard to draw any conclusions until the data is relatively "set" - 4-5 days old.
But way more than six kids died in road traffic accidents in the last six months. Those deaths could all have been avoided by restricting motor vehicles to a 20 miles per hour top speed. And yet I don't see you advocating for that.
ScottXp seems to be advocating something like near-perpetual lockdown, and no schools? That would mean much more human suffering
Again, for the last time. The government GRAPH does show an uptick in cases, albeit still a small fall "in the last 7 days"
However with deaths the 7 day figure is 1090: down 8.9% from the prior week
And with hospitalisations, the 7 day figure is 6,427, down 12.4% from the prior week
That's it. That's what I said. There is no cause for any nerd to be agitated. And yes, I appreciate there are millions of nuances lying beneath these figures
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59256223
1. It's a dictatorship, why would Lukashenko feel any such need to justify himself?
2. They don't need to anyway because none of the migrants wants to stay regardless.
Clearly the argument, when they all freeze to death in the swamps and forests of the border, will be that the migrants wanted to go to the EU so it's all the EU's fault. Lovely, innocent Belarus merely offered them safe passage.
Explains to a degree why killing HS2 NE could hurt BJ.
But not sure how that fits in the hierarchy of issues.
It's all very nice to be the first to run down the street with your hair on fire etc. But waiting to see what the actual reality is, is to be recommended.
I get it
@SeanT would be appalled!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCui-UrNCME
"German Christmas markets face second year of closures as Covid rates soar
Many markets have already announced they will not be going ahead amid record case numbers"
Sad
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/10/germany-christmas-market-closures-covid-rates-soar
Latvia bans unvaccinated lawmakers from voting, becoming the first country to adopt such a measure
Democratic rights suspended for the Unvaxed
Ooof
General Melchett: Filthy hun weasels, fighting their dirty underhand war!
Captain Darling: And fortunately, one of our spies...
General Melchett: Splendid fellows, brave heroes risking life and limb for Blighty!
Austria will impose a nationwide lockdown for people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19, becoming the first country in the world to do so, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg announced on Friday.
Very beautiful women. As a refugee from war torn Syria, you could do worse (and better)
"A lockdown for the unvaccinated means one cannot leave one’s home unless one is going to work, shopping (for essentials), stretching one’s legs – exactly what we all had to suffer through in 2020,” Schallenberg said earlier, according to Reuters.
"The lockdown for the unvaccinated has already been formally approved in Upper Austria, where restrictions have also been announced for the entire population. This includes a legal requirement to wear an FFP2 mask in all indoor public places and a ban on events for 3 weeks."
Your papers, please
They are currently the national leader in cases.
If boosters outpace these case rises it is quite possible Hospitalisations and deaths could fall even if we have more case rises - we'd be back in a "breaking the link" part of the cycle, reversing the recent waning of vaccine immunity.
And then school vaccination, which shows a bit of a sign of ramping up (100k first vaccinations reported yesterday) will have some effect on cases.
But I've not changed my mind on the mild plan B restrictions (plus preparing more severe Vaxport type restriction on the unvaccinated), NHS is too marginal - the posdible outcome of several months of sustained high respiratory admissions and intensive care usage is a different challenge to the short, sharp shock of massive pressure over a month or two of previous pandemic waves or the typical flu wave.
Exclusive: Tory MP Marcus Fysh ‘wrong’ not to mention interest in insurance firm when proposing insurance-friendly amendment to care levy, says ex-standards committee chair
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/mp-with-stake-in-giant-health-insurer-lobbied-for-australian-style-care-insurance/
This accords with my theory that Boris is not necessarily lying all the time, if we accept that lying includes knowing, let alone caring, whether what he says is true or false. Someone described it as bullshitting, which might be closer to the mark.
Without knowing what a politician (or anyone else) actually knows and believes, it can be hard to tell whether they are lying, when they say something false.
My favorite fact checker, Glenn Kessler, resolves that problem by calling factual errors "falsehoods", rather than lies. That lacks the emotional impact of calling them "lies", but avoids the problem of knowing another person's mind. And he uses a third category, "misleading", for statements that are not false, but might mislead a reader or listener.
(Glenn Kessler: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Kessler_(journalist))
I guess it's a whole next step up, because you literally cannot leave your home without a card in Austria.
Jes Staley exchanged 1,200 emails with Jeffrey Epstein over a four-year period with content that included unexplained terms such as “snow white”, according to people familiar with the correspondence between the former Barclays chief executive and the convicted sex offender.
Staley resigned from Barclays last week after seeing preliminary conclusions of an investigation by UK regulators, which examined whether he had mischaracterised his relationship with Epstein as purely professional. He has said he will contest the findings.
Central to the probe was a cache of emails first provided to US regulators by JPMorgan, where Staley worked for more than 30 years in various roles including head of the private bank where Epstein was a client.
Epstein died by suicide in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges that he sex-trafficked underage girls.
Neither the extent of the email traffic between the two men nor any of its content has been made public until now.
Many of the emails, sent between 2008 and 2012, were matter of fact — for example, discussing news articles or arranging to meet up for drinks — but showed a close relationship between the two men, according to the people familiar with the contents.
However, regulators have highlighted certain terms that do not have an obvious meaning. The “snow white” reference was written in a short, two-message exchange referring to a conversation the men had previously had in person, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Regulators at the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority are yet to draw conclusions over the phrase, a second person said.
Kathleen Harris, a lawyer for Staley, said: “We wish to make it expressly clear that our client had no involvement in any of the alleged crimes committed by Mr Epstein, and codewords were never used by Mr Staley in any communications with Mr Epstein, ever.” She said all the emails were innocuous.
Barclays pointed to an earlier statement that said “the investigation makes no findings that Mr Staley saw, or was aware of, any of Mr Epstein’s alleged crimes”. JPMorgan declined to comment.
https://www.ft.com/content/e25f32ec-6f1b-4a9a-b2cc-fed794bb6a20
By contrast the UK is average about 450,000 doses per day with a meaningfully smaller population.
Court papers obtained by the Guardian show tax inspectors ordered two property companies owned by the Goldsmith family to pay €24m (£20m) in unpaid taxes and fines after investigating what they said was a suspicious property deal.
The tax authority’s findings have been upheld by one of Spain’s highest courts, with judges agreeing the companies effectively engaged in a deliberate effort to evade tax and committed “serious” violations of the law.
Documents indicate Spanish authorities are still seeking to recover the funds and could even seize parts of the family’s land, which is spread across more than 600 hectares (1,480 acres) of private woodland about 10 miles from the Marbella coastline.
A Swiss lawyer for one of the companies denied the case amounted to a “tax evasion” issue, describing it as a dispute that resulted from a mistaken land valuation by Spanish tax authorities. She said the finding against her client was “extremely hard to understand, to put it mildly”. Court papers indicate there will be a further appeal.
However, the revelation raises difficult questions for the prime minister, who has already faced criticism for refusing to declare his use of the luxury property in the MPs’ register of interests, which would require him to disclose the monetary value of the gift from the Goldsmith family.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/boris-johnson-holiday-villa-linked-to-zac-goldsmith-firms-accused-of-tax-evasion
Tax evasion!
The piece acknowledges that they do not work in the UK, and this is the Fysh interests declared in the Misc section of his register:
From 24 January 2021, beneficial interest via futures, options, contracts for
difference and other holdings not registrable under Category 7: Shareholdings,
related to movement in the value of:
Abaxx Technologies Inc. (Financial services, information technology, iron ore)
ADA utility tokens of the Cardano blockchain network (Information technology)
(until 9 May 2021) ETH utility tokens of the Ethereum blockchain network
(Information technology)
AGNC Investment Corp. (Mortgage and real estate investment)
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (Precious metal mining)
AIA Group Ltd. (Insurance)
Apple Inc. (Information technology)
Alamos Gold Inc. (Precious metal mining)
Albemarle Corporation (Specialty chemicals / sustainable transport energy storage)
Alphabet Inc. (Information technology)
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (Precious metal mining)
Bank of America Corporation (Financial services)
Citigroup, Inc (Financial services)
Cameco Corporation (Energy/mining)
Coeur Mining Inc. (Precious metal mining)
Evercore Inc. (Financial services)
Franco-Nevada Corporation (Precious metal, energy and base metal mining
investment)
Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. (Precious metal mining)
The Howard Hughes Corporation (Real estate development)
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (Base and precious metal mining)
Iamgold Corporation (Precious metal mining)
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (Consulting and engineering services)
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (Precious metal mining)
Lowes Companies, Inc. (Consumer discretionary retail)
MAG Silver Corp. (Precious metal mining)
Microsoft Corporation (Information technology)
Mr Cooper Group (Mortgage and real estate services)
ImmunityBio, Inc. (Biotechnology healthcare and vaccines)
NASDAQ 100 Index
Novagold Resources Inc. (Precious metal resources)
Pan American Silver Corp. (Precious metal mining)
Popular, Inc (Financial services)
Pretium Resources, Inc. (Precious metal mining)
Russell 2000 Index
Schlumberger Limited (Energy services)
Seabridge Gold (Precious metal resources)
S&P 500 Index
SSR Mining Inc. (Precious metal mining)
Van Eck Vectors Junior Gold Mining ETF (Precious metal mining index fund)
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (Precious metal mining and investment)
(Registered 15 March 2021; updated 07 July 2021)
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/210920/210920.pdf
Graham said: “The rules of procedure would clearly require him to explain what his interest is in the matter, so, yes, I think that would be a breach of the code. Particularly where he’s seeking with an amendment to influence the policy of the government, then he’s duty-bound to declare any interest he has in the matter.”
Graham acknowledged that AIA does not currently operate in the UK, but added: “They might in the future, mightn’t they, and presumably all this questioning is that he anticipates that they will and he’ll make a big shot of money when they do that.”