Cases in the Netherlands per person are about 50% higher than they are in the UK at present. The problem for them is that we are almost at winter and they haven't been building up community immunity over the Summer or doing boosters. Other countries in Europe will not be far behind. Belgium, Austria and Ireland are probably worse already. I don't see how a "unvaccinated-only" lockdown can possibly be enforced.
Chances are the Austrian experiment won't do a lot of good. Even if we assume that selective lockdown is capable of being fully enforced, much of the transmission in previous waves has taken place in hospitals themselves (always the best incubators of disease) and in supermarkets. All the anti-vaxxers will also be permitted to keep going to work and pass the bug round there.
If you're going to even attempt a selective lockdown then you must. at a minimum, do what the Italians have done and lock anti-vaxxers out of work. Force them to give in by threatening them with destitution. They can get stroppy and dig their heels in over being forbidden from restaurants. Doing that when they can't afford to eat or pay the rent is a lot more difficult.
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Mrs C and, I, both double-vaccinated caught Covid. Did we spread it; don’t think so. We were staying with relatives for a few days before, and they’ve both been fine. Boosters today so should be OK for a while at least.
I know lots of double-vaccinated people who have now had Covid, including myself. All mildly. I am still hearing news every week of additional families who almost all seem to get it. There is some definite gap-filling still going on. When I was at the pub on Tuesday it has become a banter-topic over who has had it and who is yet to. Those who have had it generally think the others just need to get it done and out the way.
It was certainly not ‘severe’ for us. More of a considerable nuisance, feeling rough for a few days, and isolating. Not sure about the banter-topic yet, though!
People who know famous people? Doesn't @Leon know @LadyG ?
According to an Albanian Black Cab driver, the other day, he'd had a weird experience picking up a bloke in North London. It was as if there were millions of people in one body - strange echo in the voice....
UK reported cases on Friday last week were 34,029. We will get a much clearer idea today I think which way things are going. I suspect we will see a decent increase. I keep wondering how many more gaps there are to fill in of those who haven't been exposed to Covid and yet, unfortunately, there always seem to be more.
I'd wait until there's a more legitimate source than "disclosetv" for confirmation on that.
Sad if true. Its an utter failure to allow the exit wave to happen in the summer and autumn.
Zero Covid zealots may call me callous from being accepting of the fact some people will die from endemic Covid - but this is the alternative and its worse.
Dutch media have had it for a few hours already, official announcement this evening.
Yes, seems almost certain. You were right. New lockdowns in mainland Europe. Please God they don't come here
Tbf, it wasn't me it was one of the risk analysts, but yeah he did a pretty good job. He now thinks 8 EU countries will go into some kind of lockdown. His rating is that the UK won't.
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Sounds like the former. I think that the Germans are panicking because they are entering a phase of the pandemic where, whilst case rates aren't remotely as bad as they have been in previous peaks in Britain, they are worse then they have ever experienced before - and climbing.
If things carry on as they are for another few days in our respective countries then we'll reach crossover in terms of case rates, and that's despite the fact that Germany has more restrictions and conducts a lot fewer tests per capita. Some of their hospitals are also starting to scream like the NHS, and they have a lower vaccination rate.
That's what's going on here. There's no sign of any new variant that is vastly more potent or transmissible than Delta.
Drosten: "We have to maneuver slowly and carefully into the endemic phase without our health system collapsing due to excessive demands and deaths like in Great Britain."
Er, what? Do they really believe this??
He's a German Health Minister, not a Handelsblatt Journalist or the president of France
He must know this is drivel
He is a politician. If he can make his country look better compared with another country then he will. Same with all politicians, everywhere.
In effect, the judges have said that men can choke a woman to death during sex and then defend themselves by saying that she asked for it. The "rough sex" defence was meant to have been abolished in the Domestic Abuse Act last year.
And so a man kills a woman and gets four and a half years. Four and a half years for a woman's life. In reality he will be inside for about two.
But yeah let's have campaigns instead against Violence Against Women and Girls. A bit of PR words, that should do it.
Sickening.
Was there intention to kill? Assuming it was simply a consensual act taken too far why would such a sentence be too lenient?
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Sounds like the former. I think that the Germans are panicking because they are entering a phase of the pandemic where, whilst case rates aren't remotely as bad as they have been in previous peaks in Britain, they are worse then they have ever experienced before - and climbing.
If things carry on as they are for another few days in our respective countries then we'll reach crossover in terms of case rates, and that's despite the fact that Germany has more restrictions and conducts a lot fewer tests per capita. Some of their hospitals are also starting to scream like the NHS, and they have a lower vaccination rate.
That's what's going on here. There's no sign of any new variant that is vastly more potent or transmissible than Delta.
Drosten: "We have to maneuver slowly and carefully into the endemic phase without our health system collapsing due to excessive demands and deaths like in Great Britain."
Er, what? Do they really believe this??
He's a German Health Minister, not a Handelsblatt Journalist or the president of France
He must know this is drivel
He is a politician. If he can make his country look better compared with another country then he will. Same with all politicians, everywhere.
But it's such an obvious, provable lie. Amazing. Covid has been a revalatory insight into our own country's flaws and incompetence - but also the same in others
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Sounds like the former. I think that the Germans are panicking because they are entering a phase of the pandemic where, whilst case rates aren't remotely as bad as they have been in previous peaks in Britain, they are worse then they have ever experienced before - and climbing.
If things carry on as they are for another few days in our respective countries then we'll reach crossover in terms of case rates, and that's despite the fact that Germany has more restrictions and conducts a lot fewer tests per capita. Some of their hospitals are also starting to scream like the NHS, and they have a lower vaccination rate.
That's what's going on here. There's no sign of any new variant that is vastly more potent or transmissible than Delta.
Drosten: "We have to maneuver slowly and carefully into the endemic phase without our health system collapsing due to excessive demands and deaths like in Great Britain."
Er, what? Do they really believe this??
He's a German Health Minister, not a Handelsblatt Journalist or the president of France
He must know this is drivel
We get reminded, at intervals, is that politicians don't get their knowledge of what happens in other countries from super accurate briefings by sinister intelligence chiefs.
They use Twatter, their favourite newspapers and crap they've told each other.
They love to talk about what each party involve says at the high level. But there is next to no information that allows the reader to judge who is right. What is the evidence of trade inversion, which is one key test? Doesn't say. What is the evidence of how stringent the EU is being on checks? Doesn't say. What are the actual changes in checks the UK wants? Which categories of goods not checked or what information should be not given? Doesn't say. What would be the scale of the impacts if those checks were relaxed? Doesn't say.
It just seems like lazy reporting. If you ever listen to an RTE broadcast, they go into precisely this stuff, despite far lower resources. It's just sloppiness from the BBC and the lack of actual fact base is a big part of everyone interpreting things through existing prejudices and making us more politically divided.
Yes. And true of the BBC generally. Uniquely unburdened by needing no opinions or editorial slant and massively staffed worldwide, and with an infinity of time and space to use in every medium, the one thing it can do is to get the detail right, check facts, go into depth, and give worldwide coverage.
Instead it frequently does 'balance' by having a discussion involving two ignorant and opposing extremes, when it is staffed to give us a factual account of what is the true situation by journalists expert in their field.
The Today programme alone (for example) has three hours a day to do this. It is good, but could be so much better.
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Sounds like the former. I think that the Germans are panicking because they are entering a phase of the pandemic where, whilst case rates aren't remotely as bad as they have been in previous peaks in Britain, they are worse then they have ever experienced before - and climbing.
If things carry on as they are for another few days in our respective countries then we'll reach crossover in terms of case rates, and that's despite the fact that Germany has more restrictions and conducts a lot fewer tests per capita. Some of their hospitals are also starting to scream like the NHS, and they have a lower vaccination rate.
That's what's going on here. There's no sign of any new variant that is vastly more potent or transmissible than Delta.
Drosten: "We have to maneuver slowly and carefully into the endemic phase without our health system collapsing due to excessive demands and deaths like in Great Britain."
Er, what? Do they really believe this??
He's a German Health Minister, not a Handelsblatt Journalist or the president of France
He must know this is drivel
This is exactly the phenomenon my Italian colleague was talking about yesterday, the politicians are feeding the people a diet of constant fear and bullshit about the UK. She really was extremely frustrated that her family has just simply bought into the lie that the UK is collapsing under the weight of COVID because the politicians of Europe can't countenance that they got it wrong and we didn't.
I'd wait until there's a more legitimate source than "disclosetv" for confirmation on that.
Sad if true. Its an utter failure to allow the exit wave to happen in the summer and autumn.
Zero Covid zealots may call me callous from being accepting of the fact some people will die from endemic Covid - but this is the alternative and its worse.
Dutch media have had it for a few hours already, official announcement this evening.
Yes, seems almost certain. You were right. New lockdowns in mainland Europe. Please God they don't come here
Tbf, it wasn't me it was one of the risk analysts, but yeah he did a pretty good job. He now thinks 8 EU countries will go into some kind of lockdown. His rating is that the UK won't.
Eight European countries?
Romania is already in some kind of lockdown: curfew
Seven more. I'd go for Austria (if they aren't aready in a lockdown of the unjabbed), Germany, Netherlands (as we see), Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Czechia. Perhaps Greece
UK reported cases on Friday last week were 34,029. We will get a much clearer idea today I think which way things are going. I suspect we will see a decent increase. I keep wondering how many more gaps there are to fill in of those who haven't been exposed to Covid and yet, unfortunately, there always seem to be more.
The third jab offers what looks like decent neutralising efficacy. It's only being offered to the lowest case rate section of the population, whilst the highest is getting 1 jab .
I know the broad strategy is against hospitalisation but it lacks any ambition vs cases now. And hospitalisations tend to follow cases to some degree..
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
People who know famous people? Doesn't @Leon know @LadyG ?
According to an Albanian Black Cab driver, the other day, he'd had a weird experience picking up a bloke in North London. It was as if there were millions of people in one body - strange echo in the voice....
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Sounds like the former. I think that the Germans are panicking because they are entering a phase of the pandemic where, whilst case rates aren't remotely as bad as they have been in previous peaks in Britain, they are worse then they have ever experienced before - and climbing.
If things carry on as they are for another few days in our respective countries then we'll reach crossover in terms of case rates, and that's despite the fact that Germany has more restrictions and conducts a lot fewer tests per capita. Some of their hospitals are also starting to scream like the NHS, and they have a lower vaccination rate.
That's what's going on here. There's no sign of any new variant that is vastly more potent or transmissible than Delta.
Drosten: "We have to maneuver slowly and carefully into the endemic phase without our health system collapsing due to excessive demands and deaths like in Great Britain."
Er, what? Do they really believe this??
He's a German Health Minister, not a Handelsblatt Journalist or the president of France
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
A remark he denies. Essex have had quite a few ethnic-minority players, and those not held in high esteem deserved not to be. I don’t think, for example, that Ravi Bopara ever made any complaints. There might, though, have been some abuse of Dinesh Kaneria for his off-field behaviour.
This paragraph from the Times article Max mentions is troubling
"There are other reasons to be concerned. “The Delta variant has reshuffled the cards,” Drosten, one of Angela Merkel’s most trusted scientific advisers, said. “Soon it will very swiftly become transmissible among the vaccinated.""
Is he just saying what we all know, vaxxed people can still spread the bug? If this is news to the Germans then it might explain the panic. Or is this some new development, or variant, or what?
Sounds like the former. I think that the Germans are panicking because they are entering a phase of the pandemic where, whilst case rates aren't remotely as bad as they have been in previous peaks in Britain, they are worse then they have ever experienced before - and climbing.
If things carry on as they are for another few days in our respective countries then we'll reach crossover in terms of case rates, and that's despite the fact that Germany has more restrictions and conducts a lot fewer tests per capita. Some of their hospitals are also starting to scream like the NHS, and they have a lower vaccination rate.
That's what's going on here. There's no sign of any new variant that is vastly more potent or transmissible than Delta.
Drosten: "We have to maneuver slowly and carefully into the endemic phase without our health system collapsing due to excessive demands and deaths like in Great Britain."
Er, what? Do they really believe this??
He's a German Health Minister, not a Handelsblatt Journalist or the president of France
He must know this is drivel
This is exactly the phenomenon my Italian colleague was talking about yesterday, the politicians are feeding the people a diet of constant fear and bullshit about the UK. She really was extremely frustrated that her family has just simply bought into the lie that the UK is collapsing under the weight of COVID because the politicians of Europe can't countenance that they got it wrong and we didn't.
Except that the NHS is collapsing, which makes the notion that it's imploding under the weight of Covid very easy to sell, even though Covid is just the trigger rather than the root cause.
The root cause is that the NHS is a threadbare system that the Government and the people have both relied upon to provide care on the cheap for decades. And now both are being found out.
Nobody wants to pay substantially higher taxes to fix the various clapped out organs of the state that need to be renewed to cope with an ageing population, though in truth half the population can't afford to pay very much more and the other half think they shouldn't have to pay anything at all.
It's quite possible that the approach taken by the Government and its advisers to allowing the exit wave to break over the Summer was entirely correct, but that the whole health and social care system will go up in flames regardless because it's completely shot, basically.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
A remark he denies. Essex have had quite a few ethnic-minority players, and those not held in high esteem deserved not to be. I don’t think, for example, that Ravi Bopara ever made any complaints. There might, though, have been some abuse of Dinesh Kaneria for his off-field behaviour.
I'm forever reminded of that UKIP lady in 2015 who seemed mystified why people were upset at her for using the word 'negroid'.
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
A remark he denies. Essex have had quite a few ethnic-minority players, and those not held in high esteem deserved not to be. I don’t think, for example, that Ravi Bopara ever made any complaints. There might, though, have been some abuse of Dinesh Kaneria for his off-field behaviour.
I'm forever reminded of that UKIP lady in 2015 who seemed mystified why people were upset at her for using the word 'negroid'.
I might be wrong, I think today’s Dominic Cummings blog is the first time he has publicly accused Johnson of spending his time in Chevening in February 2020 writing his Shakespeare book. It was the period in which he was missing Covid cobr meetings. https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1459169899671138307
I informally met most of the mid-1990s F1 drivers in a slightly unusual setting. I also discussed concrete with Bernie Ecclestone, managing ten or so minutes before realising who he was.
I was also at school with director Shane Meadows ("This is England", " Once Upon a Time in the Midlands" etc), although I cannot remember him at all. Purely unconnected, my cousin is in a band with writer/actor Paddy Considine, who is good friends with Meadows.
It feels slightly odd that the most famous alumni of my schools was at a state school, and not the much longer period I spent at a private school ...
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
A remark he denies. Essex have had quite a few ethnic-minority players, and those not held in high esteem deserved not to be. I don’t think, for example, that Ravi Bopara ever made any complaints. There might, though, have been some abuse of Dinesh Kaneria for his off-field behaviour.
I'm forever reminded of that UKIP lady in 2015 who seemed mystified why people were upset at her for using the word 'negroid'.
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
I might be wrong, I think today’s Dominic Cummings blog is the first time he has publicly accused Johnson of spending his time in Chevening in February 2020 writing his Shakespeare book. It was the period in which he was missing Covid cobr meetings. https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1459169899671138307
It wasn’t until October 2020 that he finally understood even vaguely what leaving the Customs Union meant. I will never forget the look on his face when, after listening to Frost in a phones-out meeting on the final stage of the negotiation, he said, ‘No no no Frosty, fuck this, what happens with a deal?’ And Frost looked up from his paper and said, ‘PM, this is what happens with a deal, that’s what leaving the Customs Union means.’ The PM’s face was priceless. He sat back in his chair and looked around the room with appalled disbelief and shook his head. Horrified officials’ phones pinged around the Cabinet table. One very senior official texted me, ‘Now I realise how you managed to get Brexit done 😂’.
British troops have been deployed to Poland’s border with Belarus as tensions escalate over a migrant crisis.
Mariusz Blaszczak, the Polish defence minister, said that British Royal Engineers had been sent on a “reconnaissance” exercise with Nato allies amid a standoff between Minsk and Warsaw over the fate of hundreds of migrants trying to reach the European Union.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
150 per day for 3 months is about 12-15k though, 100k would mean 1000 people or more dying per day. That would be very extreme and thankfully very unlikely.
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
A remark he denies. Essex have had quite a few ethnic-minority players, and those not held in high esteem deserved not to be. I don’t think, for example, that Ravi Bopara ever made any complaints. There might, though, have been some abuse of Dinesh Kaneria for his off-field behaviour.
I'm forever reminded of that UKIP lady in 2015 who seemed mystified why people were upset at her for using the word 'negroid'.
At a random guess - these are being put there to prevent a lunatic-with-a-truck-mowing-poeople-down (as in France)
So blocking the end where they can actually get some speed up might make a kind of sense, and the other end, which is all twisting turns, would prevent a truck getting speed up?
British troops have been deployed to Poland’s border with Belarus as tensions escalate over a migrant crisis.
Mariusz Blaszczak, the Polish defence minister, said that British Royal Engineers had been sent on a “reconnaissance” exercise with Nato allies amid a standoff between Minsk and Warsaw over the fate of hundreds of migrants trying to reach the European Union.
This is why the EU will never cancel the TCA, whatever Ireland wants to brief and bounce everyone into. There are simply too many countries in the 27 with a much bigger interest in being allied to the UK that will veto any moves to cancel it.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
150 per day for 3 months is about 12-15k though, 100k would mean 1000 people or more dying per day. That would be very extreme and thankfully very unlikely.
Their vaccination rate is higher than the US, but not that much higher, so an exit wave similar to the last few months in the US must be the base case.
I might be wrong, I think today’s Dominic Cummings blog is the first time he has publicly accused Johnson of spending his time in Chevening in February 2020 writing his Shakespeare book. It was the period in which he was missing Covid cobr meetings. https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1459169899671138307
It wasn’t until October 2020 that he finally understood even vaguely what leaving the Customs Union meant. I will never forget the look on his face when, after listening to Frost in a phones-out meeting on the final stage of the negotiation, he said, ‘No no no Frosty, fuck this, what happens with a deal?’ And Frost looked up from his paper and said, ‘PM, this is what happens with a deal, that’s what leaving the Customs Union means.’ The PM’s face was priceless. He sat back in his chair and looked around the room with appalled disbelief and shook his head. Horrified officials’ phones pinged around the Cabinet table. One very senior official texted me, ‘Now I realise how you managed to get Brexit done 😂’.
This accords with my theory that Boris is not necessarily lying all the time, if we accept that lying includes knowing, let alone caring, whether what he says is true or false. Someone described it as bullshitting, which might be closer to the mark.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
150 per day for 3 months is about 12-15k though, 100k would mean 1000 people or more dying per day. That would be very extreme and thankfully very unlikely.
Some European countries have already posted the equivalent of 1200-1500 a day in UK terms, ie scaled for population. Latvia, Ukraine, Romania spring to mind. According to Worldometer Ukraine reported 750 today, and it's a country of 43 milli9n
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
150 per day for 3 months is about 12-15k though, 100k would mean 1000 people or more dying per day. That would be very extreme and thankfully very unlikely.
Leon’s predictions are always very unlikely, and always thankfully!
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
I'd tell those c**** at Oxfam to complain to Emmanuel Macron. Given the amount of shit AZ have had to put up with over the last 9 months, I don't blame them for hiking the price.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
150 per day for 3 months is about 12-15k though, 100k would mean 1000 people or more dying per day. That would be very extreme and thankfully very unlikely.
Some European countries have already posted the equivalent of 1200-1500 a day in UK terms, ie scaled for population. Latvia, Ukraine, Romania spring to mind. According to Worldometer Ukraine reported 750 today, and it's a country of 43 milli9n
Ukraine has it pretty bad at the moment. Densely populated areas and varied conspiracy theories telling people not to get vaccinated. Most of Eastern Europe has the same issues.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
150 per day for 3 months is about 12-15k though, 100k would mean 1000 people or more dying per day. That would be very extreme and thankfully very unlikely.
Some European countries have already posted the equivalent of 1200-1500 a day in UK terms, ie scaled for population. Latvia, Ukraine, Romania spring to mind. According to Worldometer Ukraine reported 750 today, and it's a country of 43 milli9n
Ukraine has it pretty bad at the moment. Densely populated areas and varied conspiracy theories telling people not to get vaccinated. Most of Eastern Europe has the same issues.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Point slightly undermined if you know why Oxfam is called that
And at least there isn't an Oxford China Centre. I suppose after nearly a century working for Moscow, Beijing makes a refreshing change.
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
The University of Oxford China Centre is a new hub for various academic activities related to China at the University of Oxford, located on the premises of St Hugh’s College in the magnificent Dickson Poon Building.
By bringing together superb academics and researchers from a broad range of disciplines, the China Centre will foster innovative collaborative initiatives and ensure that Oxford’s research on China produces even more substantial impact, both domestically and abroad.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Remember, in December 2020 Frost/Lewis suddenly had to make concessions (including fish) because the PM collapsed at the final moment after all his tough talk.
The tough, formidable Steph Riso was 100x more able than Barnier. Because the political media focuses on arrogant blowhard men instead of tough women, Westminster has a skewed impression of the key players.
She realised his weaknesses and said to our negotiating team at the crunch point: I know you are not bluffing but we all know your Prime Minister is weak, he is bluffing, he will collapse, you should take this deal.
Which second jobs for MPs do the public approve of?
Isn't that simply a proxy for the image of particular professions, with a political spin?
I'd see a larger correlation with where the public might see a conflict of interest between the profession in question and being a representative of the people. Not a perfect correlation (otherwise plumber and doctor would both score more highly), but I see a pattern without bothering to run the regression.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
Point slightly undermined if you know why Oxfam is called that
And at least there isn't an Oxford China Centre. I suppose after nearly a century working for Moscow, Beijing makes a refreshing change.
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
The University of Oxford China Centre is a new hub for various academic activities related to China at the University of Oxford, located on the premises of St Hugh’s College in the magnificent Dickson Poon Building.
By bringing together superb academics and researchers from a broad range of disciplines, the China Centre will foster innovative collaborative initiatives and ensure that Oxford’s research on China produces even more substantial impact, both domestically and abroad.
I don't think that the Government would try to lock us all up for a second year on the spin. Besides anything else, the evidence of the January massacre suggests that enough of the population defied last year's lockdown to render it useless, and there would be much more widespread rejection of Draconian measures at the second time of asking.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
100k seems very high. It could be one of those fear tactics to get refusers to get the vaccine.
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
Yes, quite possibly. But Britain has been jogging along at ~150-200 deaths a day for quite a while. About 3 months?
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
Well, let's do the maths, shall we?
Let's say Spring starts on 1 April 2021. (Seems late, but we'll go with it.) That means there are roughly 4.5 months to go. Shall we say 140 days?
That means we need to see around 700 deaths a day to get there - or 3-4x the British levels during the exit wave.
Possible, yes.
However, it is important to note that - from a vaccination perspective - Germany is two countries. The seven most vaccinated Lander are all in the West, while the five least are all in the East. (Baden-Wuttenberg and Bavaria in the West and Berlin in the East are pretty much the only exceptions to the rule.)
The vaccination gap between the most vaccinated (Bremen, 81% with one or more jabs) and the least Saxony (59%) is massive - larger than the difference in vaccination rates different between the UK (74%) and Poland (54%).
That means that it's extremely unlikely we'd see a situation very different from the UK's in most of West Germany. Deaths would be concentrated in the East and in Catholic Germany (Bavaria and BW). If you assume British death rates in the West, then you'd need to see 7-8x British death rates in the vaccine laggards to get ourselves up the 600 deaths a day level.
And I don't believe you get there without the population of Saxony locking themselves down: because that's what happened in other places where Covid absolutely exploded.
That's the real problem with all these "worst case scenarios": they assume that behaviour is unchanged. Trust me, if you can't sleep for the sound of ambulances (as happened in New York and Milan), then behaviour changes.
Ghastly AztraZeneca, I knew this was inevitable the moment they paired up with the dump. I mean you know you've hit rock bottom when Oxfam are rightly calling you out for being shits.
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
I'd tell those c**** at Oxfam to complain to Emmanuel Macron. Given the amount of shit AZ have had to put up with over the last 9 months, I don't blame them for hiking the price.
The blame falls squarely on Boris Johnson, he should have nuked France the moment Macron started bleating on about quasi effective.
I don't think that the Government would try to lock us all up for a second year on the spin. Besides anything else, the evidence of the January massacre suggests that enough of the population defied last year's lockdown to render it useless, and there would be much more widespread rejection of Draconian measures at the second time of asking.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
They are neither resolute, nor numerous, nor well enough armed to deal promptly with IB sociopaths setting up checkpoints for ambulances, so I think you are correct.
I don't think that the Government would try to lock us all up for a second year on the spin. Besides anything else, the evidence of the January massacre suggests that enough of the population defied last year's lockdown to render it useless, and there would be much more widespread rejection of Draconian measures at the second time of asking.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
Which second jobs for MPs do the public approve of?
Isn't that simply a proxy for the image of particular professions, with a political spin?
I'd see a larger correlation with where the public might see a conflict of interest between the profession in question and being a representative of the people. Not a perfect correlation (otherwise plumber and doctor would both score more highly), but I see a pattern without bothering to run the regression.
Quite surprising that "academic" is that respected, and that Company Director, Campaigner and Entrepreneur were left out as options.
I'd say that one downside of restricting some of this stuff is that MPs may stop learning.
That's the Robert Koch Institute's figures - yes. And yet Worldometer has 50,337. If RKI is right you win, if Worldometer is right, I win!
I believe Germany's figures are especially confusing, quite often, because the individual Lander report at different times, and they get totted up in different ways
However I am happy to agree that RKI is the more definitive source, so you win the bet and I will pay 5p to the next homeless person I see. In fact I will go further and give them a quid
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
Only on PB could a simple map of musicians by county provoke such an outpouring of quibbling, pedantry, nit-picking and whataboutery. Along with useless trivia, personal anecdotes and opinion. Superb. Keep it up.
OK then.
Roland Gift of the Fine Young Cannibals came to my birthday parties. He and I were friends for a while. I went out with the artist brother of the lead guitarist of The Buzzcocks. I knew Tony Wilson and hung out at the Hacienda and his home in my dissolute past.
Will that do?
Oh dear I bet we know each other.
Why "oh dear"? You are privileged. As am sure am I.
Of course. How ungallant of me. Did you know Tony during his time at Rathen Road?
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
I don't think that the Government would try to lock us all up for a second year on the spin. Besides anything else, the evidence of the January massacre suggests that enough of the population defied last year's lockdown to render it useless, and there would be much more widespread rejection of Draconian measures at the second time of asking.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
Millions will utterly ignore a second xmas lockdown.
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
Simply, children at school mix with far more people in far closer range than the vast majority of adults. They run around breathing heavily, they shout, they scream, the play games which involve close physical proximity. Basically, they behave as little Covid spreading machines.
If you run out of hosts in schools, then it's massively less easy for outbreaks to flare up. It gives me an enormous amount of confidence that the UK will not see a fourth wave.
I don't think that the Government would try to lock us all up for a second year on the spin. Besides anything else, the evidence of the January massacre suggests that enough of the population defied last year's lockdown to render it useless, and there would be much more widespread rejection of Draconian measures at the second time of asking.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
Millions will utterly ignore a second xmas lockdown.
You don't need to tell me that. I sat at home for the first one. No fucking way on Earth I'm doing it a second time.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Two or three weeks as per the Guardian. But we know how these things often get extended
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Every lockdown always starts as "just a few weeks".
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Two or three weeks as per the Guardian. But we know how these things often get extended
Yes, our lockdown last year was just supposed to be a few weeks and it lasted until April with the final unlockdown not until July.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Two or three weeks as per the Guardian. But we know how these things often get extended
It might well be extended, but cancelling Christmas is not popular. Governments will do what they think is popular.
(As an aside, I really don't understand why any European country - bearing in mind that they have 200 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna on hand - is holding back on booster programmes.)
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Two or three weeks as per the Guardian. But we know how these things often get extended
It might well be extended, but cancelling Christmas is not popular. Governments will do what they think is popular.
(As an aside, I really don't understand why any European country - bearing in mind that they have 200 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna on hand - is holding back on booster programmes.)
In big parts or Europe they're convinced that lockdown is a great idea.
I don't think that the Government would try to lock us all up for a second year on the spin. Besides anything else, the evidence of the January massacre suggests that enough of the population defied last year's lockdown to render it useless, and there would be much more widespread rejection of Draconian measures at the second time of asking.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
Millions will utterly ignore a second xmas lockdown.
If they close the bars, hotels, and restaurants, that will be hard to "ignore"
I will do my bloody best tho. Mentally, I could not endure another winter like last year. I will flee the damn country before then
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
Two or three weeks as per the Guardian. But we know how these things often get extended
Yes, our lockdown last year was just supposed to be a few weeks and it lasted until April with the final unlockdown not until July.
But that was because we were going through the whole vaccination process.
The Netherlands has higher percentage of population vaxxed than we do, they started later than us, and all the evidence is that Pfizer's protection wanes slightly less quickly than AZ.
If hospitalisations aren't going through the roof, then it's hard to see the political motivation to maintain lockdown measures.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
Simply, children at school mix with far more people in far closer range than the vast majority of adults. They run around breathing heavily, they shout, they scream, the play games which involve close physical proximity. Basically, they behave as little Covid spreading machines.
If you run out of hosts in schools, then it's massively less easy for outbreaks to flare up. It gives me an enormous amount of confidence that the UK will not see a fourth wave.
I suspect the number of children who haven't had it yet is higher than you might expect because of paranoid parenting.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
A lot was done at three weeks - but mostly that was the youngsters, later in the vaccination programme.
It's worth looking at Israel, which was all three weeks. They had a massive Covid third wave, reintroduced lockdowns, and their ICUs were also 85%+ the unvaccinated.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
And if the UK is the only country in Western Europe, not to have a cancelled Christmas?
There's not going to be cancelled Christmases in Western Europe - with the possible exception of East Germany. Vaccination rates are high enough - as they were in the UK - that hospitalisation rates will be well below the levels they were at their peak.
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
And yet the Netherlands is already locking down, now (or so we are told: their presser is at 5pm GMT). Closing bars and restaurants at 7pm is not very "Christmassy". If it happens in December then that is a cancelled Christmas for many
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
The story that I read is that it's a two week early closure, followed by reopening with strict Vaxport rules.
"don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. "
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
Yes, Philip made this same point last night. We think the continentals are lagging us by a month and therefore won't experience waning yet. But they often didn't have three month gaps like us. So their second doses are now, commonly, older than ours.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
I think this is the "step function" fallacy.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
It doesn't have to fall off a cliff for us to now be seeing an effect, across Europe
The smartest thing the UK did with Covid - this time around - was to let it absolutely rip through school kids. It would have been better if they'd done this after vaccinating them, but nevertheless the removal of this transmission vector is huge for the UK.
Simply, children at school mix with far more people in far closer range than the vast majority of adults. They run around breathing heavily, they shout, they scream, the play games which involve close physical proximity. Basically, they behave as little Covid spreading machines.
If you run out of hosts in schools, then it's massively less easy for outbreaks to flare up. It gives me an enormous amount of confidence that the UK will not see a fourth wave.
I suspect the number of children who haven't had it yet is higher than you might expect because of paranoid parenting.
I though the seroprevalence studies had antibodies north of 60%. Given that we have the vaccination programme going on now, I would hope that future outbreaks in schools would be limited.
Comments
If you're going to even attempt a selective lockdown then you must. at a minimum, do what the Italians have done and lock anti-vaxxers out of work. Force them to give in by threatening them with destitution. They can get stroppy and dig their heels in over being forbidden from restaurants. Doing that when they can't afford to eat or pay the rent is a lot more difficult.
Not sure about the banter-topic yet, though!
They use Twatter, their favourite newspapers and crap they've told each other.
Instead it frequently does 'balance' by having a discussion involving two ignorant and opposing extremes, when it is staffed to give us a factual account of what is the true situation by journalists expert in their field.
The Today programme alone (for example) has three hours a day to do this. It is good, but could be so much better.
Romania is already in some kind of lockdown: curfew
Seven more. I'd go for Austria (if they aren't aready in a lockdown of the unjabbed), Germany, Netherlands (as we see), Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Czechia. Perhaps Greece
I know the broad strategy is against hospitalisation but it lacks any ambition vs cases now. And hospitalisations tend to follow cases to some degree..
Essex chairman John Faragher has resigned with immediate effect following an historic allegation of racist language used by him at a board meeting in 2017, the club have announced
https://twitter.com/pasport/status/1459164764173656074
It was very good.
https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1459165884124000256?s=20
Our highest ever was ~70,000 in January 2021.
Vaccines and treatments will keep down the deaths, but they could still be nasty. 500 a day? More?
Drosten's prediction (he's the German Neil Ferguson) of 100,000 new German deaths by spring does not seem outlandish
I still find it shocking that in a world where vaccines exist and are highly effective there are countries that will lockdown to protect those who were stupid enough to say no. The responsible people who got vaccinated are being let down across Europe.
There might, though, have been some abuse of Dinesh Kaneria for his off-field behaviour.
The root cause is that the NHS is a threadbare system that the Government and the people have both relied upon to provide care on the cheap for decades. And now both are being found out.
Nobody wants to pay substantially higher taxes to fix the various clapped out organs of the state that need to be renewed to cope with an ageing population, though in truth half the population can't afford to pay very much more and the other half think they shouldn't have to pay anything at all.
It's quite possible that the approach taken by the Government and its advisers to allowing the exit wave to break over the Summer was entirely correct, but that the whole health and social care system will go up in flames regardless because it's completely shot, basically.
And there are more unvaxxed, and more without prior infections, living in Germany, a nation of more people
I reckon 100,000 is improbable, but not, as I say, outlandish. A bit like Neil Ferguson's figures
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1459169899671138307
BBC News - UK bucking trend of rising Covid cases in Europe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59262701
I was also at school with director Shane Meadows ("This is England", " Once Upon a Time in the Midlands" etc), although I cannot remember him at all. Purely unconnected, my cousin is in a band with writer/actor Paddy Considine, who is good friends with Meadows.
It feels slightly odd that the most famous alumni of my schools was at a state school, and not the much longer period I spent at a private school ...
(Though I'd tend to view 2017 and not historic.)
Anti-terrorist barriers at ONE END of the Shambles in York. Sold to them by an "expert".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-59250150
Safe to say cases are rising now in the greatest nation.
Mariusz Blaszczak, the Polish defence minister, said that British Royal Engineers had been sent on a “reconnaissance” exercise with Nato allies amid a standoff between Minsk and Warsaw over the fate of hundreds of migrants trying to reach the European Union.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-fears-russia-may-seize-parts-of-ukraine-dbzdn3xf6
So blocking the end where they can actually get some speed up might make a kind of sense, and the other end, which is all twisting turns, would prevent a truck getting speed up?
Bloody experts, what do they know?
Oxfam has accused AstraZeneca of breaking its promises after the drugs firm said it planned to start earning a "modest" profit from its COVID-19 vaccine having previously sold it at cost.
The Anglo-Swedish company has until now not been making a profit from the Oxford coronavirus jab and said it would not do so during the pandemic.
The vaccine has in fact proved a drag on earnings so far this year according to latest financial results.
https://news.sky.com/story/astrazeneca-eyes-modest-profit-from-covid-19-vaccine-12466692?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
And at least there isn't an Oxford China Centre. I suppose after nearly a century working for Moscow, Beijing makes a refreshing change.
The University of Oxford China Centre is a new hub for various academic activities related to China at the University of Oxford, located on the premises of St Hugh’s College in the magnificent Dickson Poon Building.
By bringing together superb academics and researchers from a broad range of disciplines, the China Centre will foster innovative collaborative initiatives and ensure that Oxford’s research on China produces even more substantial impact, both domestically and abroad.
https://www.chinacentre.ox.ac.uk/
What is not to love?
The tough, formidable Steph Riso was 100x more able than Barnier. Because the political media focuses on arrogant blowhard men instead of tough women, Westminster has a skewed impression of the key players.
She realised his weaknesses and said to our negotiating team at the crunch point: I know you are not bluffing but we all know your Prime Minister is weak, he is bluffing, he will collapse, you should take this deal.
The authorities can force businesses to shut, but the police are neither numerous nor heavily armed enough to keep the general population under house arrest if it won't cooperate.
Let's say Spring starts on 1 April 2021. (Seems late, but we'll go with it.) That means there are roughly 4.5 months to go. Shall we say 140 days?
That means we need to see around 700 deaths a day to get there - or 3-4x the British levels during the exit wave.
Possible, yes.
However, it is important to note that - from a vaccination perspective - Germany is two countries. The seven most vaccinated Lander are all in the West, while the five least are all in the East. (Baden-Wuttenberg and Bavaria in the West and Berlin in the East are pretty much the only exceptions to the rule.)
The vaccination gap between the most vaccinated (Bremen, 81% with one or more jabs) and the least Saxony (59%) is massive - larger than the difference in vaccination rates different between the UK (74%) and Poland (54%).
That means that it's extremely unlikely we'd see a situation very different from the UK's in most of West Germany. Deaths would be concentrated in the East and in Catholic Germany (Bavaria and BW). If you assume British death rates in the West, then you'd need to see 7-8x British death rates in the vaccine laggards to get ourselves up the 600 deaths a day level.
And I don't believe you get there without the population of Saxony locking themselves down: because that's what happened in other places where Covid absolutely exploded.
That's the real problem with all these "worst case scenarios": they assume that behaviour is unchanged. Trust me, if you can't sleep for the sound of ambulances (as happened in New York and Milan), then behaviour changes.
I believe German cases yesterday were 48,834.
I'd say that one downside of restricting some of this stuff is that MPs may stop learning.
I believe Germany's figures are especially confusing, quite often, because the individual Lander report at different times, and they get totted up in different ways
However I am happy to agree that RKI is the more definitive source, so you win the bet and I will pay 5p to the next homeless person I see. In fact I will go further and give them a quid
Yes, they'll have some nasty spikes (indeed, there are nasty spikes going on right now), but the vaccines will do their job of protecting the most vulnerable from hospitalisation and death.
Don't forget that 85% of the people in ICU wards are unvaccinated. And don't forget that most of Western Europe has similar vaccination rates to the UK. This doesn't mean they won't have some scares (as we did), and this doesn't mean they won't avoid all restrictions (I think Vaxports and mask mandates, as have happened in California, will be common), but the idea that Christmas will be cancelled* is for the birds.
* With the possible exception of Eastern Germany. And maybe Austria.
I think you are a little too optimistic. You might well be right but it is too early to be certain
Simply, children at school mix with far more people in far closer range than the vast majority of adults. They run around breathing heavily, they shout, they scream, the play games which involve close physical proximity. Basically, they behave as little Covid spreading machines.
If you run out of hosts in schools, then it's massively less easy for outbreaks to flare up. It gives me an enormous amount of confidence that the UK will not see a fourth wave.
Highly likely higher, but by how much...
The BBC notes, almost in passing, that in europe a lot of vaxxing of second dose was done at 3 weeks, and not the UK's longer time - which may be contributing to waning.
(As an aside, I really don't understand why any European country - bearing in mind that they have 200 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna on hand - is holding back on booster programmes.)
I will do my bloody best tho. Mentally, I could not endure another winter like last year. I will flee the damn country before then
The Netherlands has higher percentage of population vaxxed than we do, they started later than us, and all the evidence is that Pfizer's protection wanes slightly less quickly than AZ.
If hospitalisations aren't going through the roof, then it's hard to see the political motivation to maintain lockdown measures.
That vax 2nd dose delay might turn out to be a good UK decision, for an additional, unexpected reason
How long does it take to reach the rest of the country by public transport starting at 8:30am next to Big Ben -
https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1459180042861301763
It's worth looking at Israel, which was all three weeks. They had a massive Covid third wave, reintroduced lockdowns, and their ICUs were also 85%+ the unvaccinated.
Efficacy doesn't suddenly drop off a cliff at six months, it slowly worsens by 1-2% every month. There is no cliff edge as people get to six months in.
Hmm