politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primar
Comments
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The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 450 -
Never underestimate the mindless solipsism of many backbench Tory MPs.SouthamObserver said:
A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.0 -
But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.SouthamObserver said:
A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.0 -
Yeah, but those were caucuses, with low numbers of participants compared with the primaries. I wouldn't attach too much significance to them.Pulpstar said:Utah looks to be in the mix, apparently.
Mind you Hillary distinctly underwhelmed both there and Idaho yesterday. 26 points below her polling.0 -
HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
Indeed.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.
Dull it'll not be ....
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No, I never attach much significance to statistical noise.watford30 said:Nope, there are far more important things to worry about. You?
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I expect his ratings would rapidly fall if he were.Pulpstar said:The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
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Withdrawing emergency care is a *big* step. The consequent stories may not do the doctors any favours, especially over what are (by comparison) minor changes.Danny565 said:
But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.0 -
Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck0
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He does quite well with independents though.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect his ratings would rapidly fall if he were.Pulpstar said:The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
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If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.DavidL said:But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.0 -
Don´t worry, Mr Danny. The Remain campaign is safely in the capable hands of Sir Crosby, who single-handedly can terrify anybody into voting whatever way he chooses.Danny565 said:As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").
However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.
Cameron will just have to do and say what he is told. Like he did in the recent General Election. And spend lots and lots of money.0 -
Eh? Lynton Crosby is not working for Remain.PClipp said:
Don´t worry, Mr Danny. The Remain campaign is safely in the capable hands of Sir Crosby, who single-handedly can terrify anybody into voting whatever way he chooses.Danny565 said:As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").
However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.
Cameron will just have to do and say what he is told. Like he did in the recent General Election. And spend lots and lots of money.0 -
It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.Richard_Nabavi said:
If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.DavidL said:But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.0 -
'Grandma died because the doctors wanted more money'.JosiasJessop said:
Withdrawing emergency care is a *big* step. The consequent stories may not do the doctors any favours, especially over what are (by comparison) minor changes.Danny565 said:
But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.
It's not going to end favourably for them.0 -
Sanders/Trump would be something to see. Sanders crushes Trump in polls but right-wing populist vs socialist? This isn't France we are talking about.Pulpstar said:
He does quite well with independents though.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect his ratings would rapidly fall if he were.Pulpstar said:The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
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Indeed though Kasich beats Sanders albeit by 1%Pulpstar said:
The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 450 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006nldzMoses_ said:Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck
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Populus
#TTMN | Boris, immigration, & the Queen: The #EUreferendum one month in https://t.co/T6DAsRFCon https://t.co/o5lGnQvJlf0 -
I'll askAlistair said:
Do you know the field work data, big Polling moment this I feelTheScreamingEagles said:Ok we're getting the Ipsos Mori phone tomorrow now.
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But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.DavidL said:It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.
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I noticed that and it's something else that makes me very sceptical of Sanders' polling. If it came to those two in November Kasich would thrash him.HYUFD said:
Indeed though Kasich beats Sanders albeit by 1%Pulpstar said:
The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 450 -
I wouldn't put too much credence in match ups that will never occur. It's a bit like asking free owls for all vs free ice cream for all...when the options are10% cuts / 10% tax rises vs 20% cuts.0
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But surely there would 100% be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us if we left? I can't think of a concrete example plus why wouldn't the ECB try to repatriate EUR-denominated business (eg. clearing) if we were not in the EU?DavidL said:
But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.SouthamObserver said:
A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
We only won the court case because we _were_ in the EU.0 -
Precisely. The predictive value of these polls is nil.Wanderer said:
I noticed that and it's something else that makes me very sceptical of Sanders' polling. If it came to those two in November Kasich would thrash him.HYUFD said:
Indeed though Kasich beats Sanders albeit by 1%Pulpstar said:
The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 450 -
I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.Richard_Nabavi said:
But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.DavidL said:It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.
I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.
More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.0 -
Well on the bright side it will give them another free day to leave their mansions and drive their top of the range range rovers and sports cars out to the country sets to play a round at the club before a sumptuous dinner in the evening quaffed down with copious bottles of champagne.Danny565 said:
But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.
Let's hope they don't have an accident on the way there or way back ....heh?0 -
There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..JackW said:HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
Indeed.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.
Dull it'll not be ....0 -
@DavidL - OK, yes, that makes sense.0
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I thought he was. If he isn´t, that may explain why Cameron is doing so poorly on his own.Wanderer said:
Eh? Lynton Crosby is not working for Remain.PClipp said:
Don´t worry, Mr Danny. The Remain campaign is safely in the capable hands of Sir Crosby, who single-handedly can terrify anybody into voting whatever way he chooses.Danny565 said:As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").
However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.
Cameron will just have to do and say what he is told. Like he did in the recent General Election. And spend lots and lots of money.0 -
Speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels with the European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, Mr Valls said:
"I think unity is all the more essential when we are under attack, this brings us together as Europeans, we have reaffirmed our attachment to the European project and we want to make sure that Europe is stronger in future than it is today."0 -
But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?DavidL said:
I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.Richard_Nabavi said:
But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.DavidL said:It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.
I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.
More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.0 -
5 years, vetoes? If it is for remain then the day after the vote the flood gates will open from Europe. Demands for complete integration and the Euro will be deafening they just will not ever miss such a golden opportunity we will quite simply be hung strung and gutted in the quickest time possible.Richard_Nabavi said:
If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.DavidL said:But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
To think anything else is just utterly naive0 -
Of course there would be such a treaty but as long as we have access to the single market we have the protection that you are talking about because any attempt to limit an EEA member from trading freely across the single market would be against the fundamental freedoms promised by the EU. What we would not be involved in is their procedures by which they fix and regulate their domestic budgets, something we have no interest in.TOPPING said:
But surely there would 100% be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us if we left? I can't think of a concrete example plus why wouldn't the ECB try to repatriate EUR-denominated business (eg. clearing) if we were not in the EU?DavidL said:
But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.SouthamObserver said:
A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
We only won the court case because we _were_ in the EU.0 -
More lives than a cat...
It has also emerged that a teenager from Utah who suffered severe burns at Zaventem airport was one street away from the Boston marathon explosion in 2013. Mason Wells, who was standing within a few feet of one of the airport bombs, is expected to make a full recovery. The 19-year-old was also in Paris at the time of last November's attacks.
http://news.sky.com/story/1665391/woman-in-shock-photo-is-airline-stewardess
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@BBCNewsPR: Pleased to say @nicholaswatt is the new Political Editor of @BBCNewsnight #Newsnight https://t.co/6n1VCMdeWy https://t.co/MDSU2pwWWR
just need PaddyPower to settle the market now0 -
You are spouting a Project Of Fear even more loudly than that which the Remain campaign is accused of .Moses_ said:
5 years, vetoes? If it is for remain then the day after the vote the flood gates will open from Europe. Demands for complete integration and the Euro will be deafening they just will not ever miss such a golden opportunity we will quite simply be hung strung and gutted in the quickest time possible.Richard_Nabavi said:
If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.DavidL said:But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
To think anything else is just utterly naive0 -
Thank you sir MrDavid.DavidL said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006nldzMoses_ said:Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck
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For cricket fans....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/12202245/Cricketers-have-been-holding-their-bats-wrong-say-scientists.html
I didn't know that about lots of those named.0 -
Not quite sure where the "big surprise" is coming from? .. The nominations are a done deal.shiney2 said:
There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..JackW said:HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
Indeed.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.
Dull it'll not be ....
It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.0 -
We have the protection in the negotiated text that there will be no discrimination between EZ and non-EZ countries. Likewise, as a non-EZ member, most of the banking union doesn't apply to UK banks doing business in the UK.DavidL said:
Of course there would be such a treaty but as long as we have access to the single market we have the protection that you are talking about because any attempt to limit an EEA member from trading freely across the single market would be against the fundamental freedoms promised by the EU. What we would not be involved in is their procedures by which they fix and regulate their domestic budgets, something we have no interest in.TOPPING said:
But surely there would 100% be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us if we left? I can't think of a concrete example plus why wouldn't the ECB try to repatriate EUR-denominated business (eg. clearing) if we were not in the EU?DavidL said:
But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.SouthamObserver said:
A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of cust confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is gom term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.
The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
We only won the court case because we _were_ in the EU.
Now, of course, if like many on this board the thinking is that this protection will be struck down (although it has of course been tested in the courts already who found in our favour), then yes, voting to Leave is the right thing to do.0 -
Guardian TV adds another member....Scott_P said:@BBCNewsPR: Pleased to say @nicholaswatt is the new Political Editor of @BBCNewsnight #Newsnight https://t.co/6n1VCMdeWy https://t.co/MDSU2pwWWR
just need PaddyPower to settle the market now0 -
The problem is that, inasmuch as that it is true, it's massively more true in the event of a Leave vote, when the hangers, stringers and gutters wouldn't even have the inconvenience of having to work around the protections we get under the Treaties.Moses_ said:5 years, vetoes? If it is for remain then the day after the vote the flood gates will open from Europe. Demands for complete integration and the Euro will be deafening they just will not ever miss such a golden opportunity we will quite simply be hung strung and gutted in the quickest time possible.
To think anything else is just utterly naive0 -
My point is that at the moment we have an unhappy compromise by which the majority of member states have agreed to use additional co-operation provisions to regulate extremely important parts of their affairs but do not have access to the full panoply of EU institutions because there are non-EZ members. The EZ members are not happy with this and I have given examples of why they should not be.TOPPING said:
But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?DavidL said:
I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.Richard_Nabavi said:
But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.DavidL said:It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.
I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.
More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
Sooner or later they are going to want to integrate the 2 set ups so that there can be some sort of democratic accountability to very important parts of their governance.
It is not really true that the EU does not opine on UK banks but that is a different argument and that is not my point. My point is that the EU is not going to stay as it is. It never has. It is going to change and change in ways that make the views of non EZ members increasingly irrelevant.0 -
They just don't get it. Two bit eurocrats heading for a fall, and I am for remain but very unsureFrancisUrquhart said:Speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels with the European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, Mr Valls said:
"I think unity is all the more essential when we are under attack, this brings us together as Europeans, we have reaffirmed our attachment to the European project and we want to make sure that Europe is stronger in future than it is today."0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12202137/Brussels-attacks-why-Isil-is-losing-its-war-on-terror-in-the-West.html
Crickey this guy is holding himself to hostage to fortune....0 -
True, but not as irrelevant as if we were not in the EU at all!DavidL said:
My point is that at the moment we have an unhappy compromise by which the majority of member states have agreed to use additional co-operation provisions to regulate extremely important parts of their affairs but do not have access to the full panoply of EU institutions because there are non-EU members. The EZ members are not happy with this and I have given examples of why they should not be.TOPPING said:
But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?DavidL said:
I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.Richard_Nabavi said:
But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.DavidL said:It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.
I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.
More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
Sooner or later they are going to want to integrate the 2 set ups so that there can be some sort of democratic accountability to very important parts of their governance.
It is not really true that the EU does not opine on UK banks but that is a different argument and that is not my point. My point is that the EU is not going to stay as it is. It never has. It is going to change and change in ways that make the views of non EZ members increasingly irrelevant.
The argument seems to be that we should leave and let the EU do its own thing because if we stay the EU will do it's own thing.0 -
She can thank the GOP throwing the kitchen sink at Trump for those leads. They were polling fairly closely before the Republican opposition to Trump really got going. Come November it will be very different.JackW said:It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton0 -
No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.0 -
The Queen did what the Government asked her to do.surbiton said:
Nonetheless, whenever the IRA connection is raised, the Queen having lunch with him should be dragged up to show if it was good enough for the Queen to mix with this lot, then it was good enough for Corbyn too !
If they are all murdering thugs, the Queen, surely, should not have invited one of them, right ?
As I recall, Charles was very upset with the whole idea and scheduled it so the meeting could only be in the village that he last spent time with Mountbatten before his godfather was murdered0 -
I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacksFrancisUrquhart said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12202137/Brussels-attacks-why-Isil-is-losing-its-war-on-terror-in-the-West.html
Crickey this guy is holding himself to hostage to fortune....0 -
I was referring to the GE when current sanders sympathisers will (probably) have a choice of Trump, Clinton or sitting it out.JackW said:
Not quite sure where the "big surprise" is coming from? .. The nominations are a done deal.shiney2 said:
There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..JackW said:HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
Indeed.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.
Dull it'll not be ....
It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.0 -
This sounds like the sort of Spam text you would put on a web page to get a high ranking. These days Google would throw it out as being of poor quality content.FrancisUrquhart said:Speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels with the European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, Mr Valls said:
"I think unity is all the more essential when we are under attack, this brings us together as Europeans, we have reaffirmed our attachment to the European project and we want to make sure that Europe is stronger in future than it is today."0 -
It's only cost-neutral if the government doesn't put more investment into weekend cover on top of what exists now.foxinsoxuk said:
No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.0 -
The last thing Hunt will do is to surrender to this. The doctors are going to lose now - it is only a matter of timefoxinsoxuk said:
No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.0 -
@SebastianEPayne: Someone has been at Katy Clark's Wikipedia page @PickardJE https://t.co/xg7qDlcsoY0
-
Good afternoon, everyone.
Just seen that junior doctors will walk out of A&E:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239
Not sure the public will be impressed.0 -
For me, that pretty much is the argument. There are clear downsides to being in the EU but there are also upsides such as having a say in the rules for the Single Market. But if we lose the upsides of having a say then the reasons for staying weigh one way.TOPPING said:
True, but not as irrelevant as if we were not in the EU at all!DavidL said:
My point is that at the moment we have an unhappy compromise by which the majority of member states have agreed to use additional co-operation provisions to regulate extremely important parts of their affairs but do not have access to the full panoply of EU institutions because there are non-EU members. The EZ members are not happy with this and I have given examples of why they should not be.TOPPING said:
But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?DavidL said:
I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.Richard_Nabavi said:DavidL said:.
I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.
More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
Sooner or later they are going to want to integrate the 2 set ups so that there can be some sort of democratic accountability to very important parts of their governance.
It is not really true that the EU does not opine on UK banks but that is a different argument and that is not my point. My point is that the EU is not going to stay as it is. It never has. It is going to change and change in ways that make the views of non EZ members increasingly irrelevant.
The argument seems to be that we should leave and let the EU do its own thing because if we stay the EU will do it's own thing.
What we need is an amicable, close relationship where we get access to the Single Market, they get to organise their own affairs and we continue to work together on issues we have in common, not least of which after yesterday is security.
Anyway, must get some work done now.0 -
I see the foolish Docs have fallen into Hunt's trap.
Cue 65/25 support/opposition for the Docs reversing....0 -
It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacksFrancisUrquhart said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12202137/Brussels-attacks-why-Isil-is-losing-its-war-on-terror-in-the-West.html
Crickey this guy is holding himself to hostage to fortune....
How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.0 -
Why will it be different?williamglenn said:
She can thank the GOP throwing the kitchen sink at Trump for those leads. They were polling fairly closely before the Republican opposition to Trump really got going. Come November it will be very different.JackW said:It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Will the Trumpster suddenly find humility, grace and a countenance befitting the POTUS whilst the Democrats forget all the faults his GOP rivals have kindly alluded to?
More importantly where will Trump find the extra voters outside of his base? There are not enough angry white working class males to fill the gap.0 -
Do you have figures for the numbers of consultants / senior doctors in hospitals when compared to junior doctors ?foxinsoxuk said:
No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
It seems ludicrous to say that this will not affect patient care, either in emergency care or elsewhere.0 -
Bangladesh making India fight very hard to reach 146 after their 20 overs. Crowd quiet.0
-
The chappy who ran off from the airport left the biggest bomb undetonated, after shoving it away.
Bottled it at the last moment by the looks of it - thankfully.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacksFrancisUrquhart said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12202137/Brussels-attacks-why-Isil-is-losing-its-war-on-terror-in-the-West.html
Crickey this guy is holding himself to hostage to fortune....
How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.0 -
Mr Dancer,Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Just seen that junior doctors will walk out of A&E:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239
Not sure the public will be impressed.
You might be interested in the following:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/358828200 -
new thread
0 -
What is the world coming to...you just can't get the Jahadi's these days...no wonder ISIS are importing so many via Eastern Europe....Plato_Says said:The chappy who ran off from the airport left the biggest bomb undetonated, after shoving it away.
Bottled it at the last moment by the looks of it - thankfully.FrancisUrquhart said:
It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacksFrancisUrquhart said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12202137/Brussels-attacks-why-Isil-is-losing-its-war-on-terror-in-the-West.html
Crickey this guy is holding himself to hostage to fortune....
How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.0 -
New Thread New Thread
0 -
The vast majority of Sanders voters will vote for Clinton. Your view was much speculated upon in 08 in a similar fashion when Obama defeated Clinton. They came back to the Democrat fold. The rest as they say ....shiney2 said:
I was referring to the GE when current sanders sympathisers will (probably) have a choice of Trump, Clinton or sitting it out.JackW said:
Not quite sure where the "big surprise" is coming from? .. The nominations are a done deal.shiney2 said:
There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..JackW said:HYUFD said:
If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
Indeed.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.
Dull it'll not be ....
It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.0 -
I haven't said that it won't affect care, but emergency care can be covered. It will cost financially as Consultants doing extra shifts will cost substantially more than the juniors being covered.JosiasJessop said:
Do you have figures for the numbers of consultants / senior doctors in hospitals when compared to junior doctors ?foxinsoxuk said:
No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
It seems ludicrous to say that this will not affect patient care, either in emergency care or elsewhere.
Hunt has delivered an ultimatum, one that is unacceptable to the BMA JDC. They either back down or escalate. Escalation it is.
Not going to impress the week before the elections (Scotland, Wales and NI will not be striking because the new contract does not apply in devolved nations).0 -
You make it sound like the strike is political.foxinsoxuk said:
I haven't said that it won't affect care, but emergency care can be covered. It will cost financially as Consultants doing extra shifts will cost substantially more than the juniors being covered.JosiasJessop said:
Do you have figures for the numbers of consultants / senior doctors in hospitals when compared to junior doctors ?foxinsoxuk said:
No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
It seems ludicrous to say that this will not affect patient care, either in emergency care or elsewhere.
Hunt has delivered an ultimatum, one that is unacceptable to the BMA JDC. They either back down or escalate. Escalation it is.
Not going to impress the week before the elections (Scotland, Wales and NI will not be striking because the new contract does not apply in devolved nations).
And at least you finally admit the strikes do harm care.0