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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primar

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  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,985
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump
    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399

    DavidL said:

    FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...

    This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.

    Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.

    A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.
    Never underestimate the mindless solipsism of many backbench Tory MPs.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361

    DavidL said:

    FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...

    This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.

    Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.

    A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.
    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Utah looks to be in the mix, apparently.

    Mind you Hillary distinctly underwhelmed both there and Idaho yesterday. 26 points below her polling.

    Yeah, but those were caucuses, with low numbers of participants compared with the primaries. I wouldn't attach too much significance to them.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump

    JackW said:


    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.
    Indeed.

    It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.

    Dull it'll not be .... :smile:

  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    watford30 said:

    Nope, there are far more important things to worry about. You?

    No, I never attach much significance to statistical noise.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.

    I expect his ratings would rapidly fall if he were.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.

    PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.
    Withdrawing emergency care is a *big* step. The consequent stories may not do the doctors any favours, especially over what are (by comparison) minor changes.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,985

    Pulpstar said:

    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.

    I expect his ratings would rapidly fall if he were.
    He does quite well with independents though.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2016
    DavidL said:

    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.

    If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Danny565 said:

    As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").

    However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.

    Don´t worry, Mr Danny. The Remain campaign is safely in the capable hands of Sir Crosby, who single-handedly can terrify anybody into voting whatever way he chooses.

    Cameron will just have to do and say what he is told. Like he did in the recent General Election. And spend lots and lots of money.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    PClipp said:

    Danny565 said:

    As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").

    However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.

    Don´t worry, Mr Danny. The Remain campaign is safely in the capable hands of Sir Crosby, who single-handedly can terrify anybody into voting whatever way he chooses.

    Cameron will just have to do and say what he is told. Like he did in the recent General Election. And spend lots and lots of money.
    Eh? Lynton Crosby is not working for Remain.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361

    DavidL said:

    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.

    If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.
    It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016

    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.

    PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.
    Withdrawing emergency care is a *big* step. The consequent stories may not do the doctors any favours, especially over what are (by comparison) minor changes.
    'Grandma died because the doctors wanted more money'.

    It's not going to end favourably for them.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.

    I expect his ratings would rapidly fall if he were.
    He does quite well with independents though.
    Sanders/Trump would be something to see. Sanders crushes Trump in polls but right-wing populist vs socialist? This isn't France we are talking about.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,118
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump
    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
    Indeed though Kasich beats Sanders albeit by 1%
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361
    Moses_ said:

    Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006nldz
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Populus
    #TTMN | Boris, immigration, & the Queen: The #EUreferendum one month in https://t.co/T6DAsRFCon https://t.co/o5lGnQvJlf
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    Moses_ said:

    Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck

    Why would anyone (except a masochist) wish to watch it?
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Ok we're getting the Ipsos Mori phone tomorrow now.

    Do you know the field work data, big Polling moment this I feel
    I'll ask
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2016
    DavidL said:

    It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.

    But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump
    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
    Indeed though Kasich beats Sanders albeit by 1%
    I noticed that and it's something else that makes me very sceptical of Sanders' polling. If it came to those two in November Kasich would thrash him.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    I wouldn't put too much credence in match ups that will never occur. It's a bit like asking free owls for all vs free ice cream for all...when the options are10% cuts / 10% tax rises vs 20% cuts.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...

    This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.

    Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.

    A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.
    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
    But surely there would 100% be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us if we left? I can't think of a concrete example plus why wouldn't the ECB try to repatriate EUR-denominated business (eg. clearing) if we were not in the EU?

    We only won the court case because we _were_ in the EU.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    Wanderer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump
    The GOP should also be thanking their lucky stars Sanders isn't going to be the candidate.
    Indeed though Kasich beats Sanders albeit by 1%
    I noticed that and it's something else that makes me very sceptical of Sanders' polling. If it came to those two in November Kasich would thrash him.
    Precisely. The predictive value of these polls is nil.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361

    DavidL said:

    It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.

    But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.
    I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.

    I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.

    More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Danny565 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.

    PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.
    Well on the bright side it will give them another free day to leave their mansions and drive their top of the range range rovers and sports cars out to the country sets to play a round at the club before a sumptuous dinner in the evening quaffed down with copious bottles of champagne.

    Let's hope they don't have an accident on the way there or way back ....heh?

    :wink:
  • Options
    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump

    JackW said:


    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.
    Indeed.

    It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.

    Dull it'll not be .... :smile:

    There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    @DavidL - OK, yes, that makes sense.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Wanderer said:

    PClipp said:

    Danny565 said:

    As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").

    However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.

    Don´t worry, Mr Danny. The Remain campaign is safely in the capable hands of Sir Crosby, who single-handedly can terrify anybody into voting whatever way he chooses.

    Cameron will just have to do and say what he is told. Like he did in the recent General Election. And spend lots and lots of money.
    Eh? Lynton Crosby is not working for Remain.
    I thought he was. If he isn´t, that may explain why Cameron is doing so poorly on his own.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited March 2016
    Speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels with the European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, Mr Valls said:

    "I think unity is all the more essential when we are under attack, this brings us together as Europeans, we have reaffirmed our attachment to the European project and we want to make sure that Europe is stronger in future than it is today."
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.

    But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.
    I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.

    I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.

    More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
    But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited March 2016

    DavidL said:

    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.

    If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.
    5 years, vetoes? If it is for remain then the day after the vote the flood gates will open from Europe. Demands for complete integration and the Euro will be deafening they just will not ever miss such a golden opportunity we will quite simply be hung strung and gutted in the quickest time possible.

    To think anything else is just utterly naive
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...

    This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.

    Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.

    A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.
    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
    But surely there would 100% be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us if we left? I can't think of a concrete example plus why wouldn't the ECB try to repatriate EUR-denominated business (eg. clearing) if we were not in the EU?

    We only won the court case because we _were_ in the EU.
    Of course there would be such a treaty but as long as we have access to the single market we have the protection that you are talking about because any attempt to limit an EEA member from trading freely across the single market would be against the fundamental freedoms promised by the EU. What we would not be involved in is their procedures by which they fix and regulate their domestic budgets, something we have no interest in.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    More lives than a cat...

    It has also emerged that a teenager from Utah who suffered severe burns at Zaventem airport was one street away from the Boston marathon explosion in 2013. Mason Wells, who was standing within a few feet of one of the airport bombs, is expected to make a full recovery. The 19-year-old was also in Paris at the time of last November's attacks.


    http://news.sky.com/story/1665391/woman-in-shock-photo-is-airline-stewardess
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsPR: Pleased to say @nicholaswatt is the new Political Editor of @BBCNewsnight #Newsnight https://t.co/6n1VCMdeWy https://t.co/MDSU2pwWWR

    just need PaddyPower to settle the market now
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Moses_ said:

    DavidL said:

    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.

    If there's another Treaty, we'll have a veto if there's anything in it we don't like. Why should it be a problem for us? More an opportunity.
    5 years, vetoes? If it is for remain then the day after the vote the flood gates will open from Europe. Demands for complete integration and the Euro will be deafening they just will not ever miss such a golden opportunity we will quite simply be hung strung and gutted in the quickest time possible.

    To think anything else is just utterly naive
    You are spouting a Project Of Fear even more loudly than that which the Remain campaign is accused of .
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    DavidL said:

    Moses_ said:

    Can you watch today's PMQs right now somewhere and if so where. Checked parliament Chanel etc but no luck

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006nldz
    Thank you sir MrDavid.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    shiney2 said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump

    JackW said:


    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.
    Indeed.

    It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.

    Dull it'll not be .... :smile:

    There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..
    Not quite sure where the "big surprise" is coming from? .. The nominations are a done deal.

    It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of cust confess I myself find this a dilemma.

    Remain remains the favourite but it is gom term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.

    A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.
    But it won't be put back to bed. Within 5 years there will be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us and another referendum on the basis of current legislation. And Cameron will be gone. And, I think, the UK will not agree to such a new treaty making our continued membership problematic.

    The problem is not now. Whilst not perfect the current EU situation is just about tolerable. The problem is where the EU is going. Nowhere I want to, that is for sure.
    But surely there would 100% be another EU treaty with additional integration of the EZ with knock on implications for us if we left? I can't think of a concrete example plus why wouldn't the ECB try to repatriate EUR-denominated business (eg. clearing) if we were not in the EU?

    We only won the court case because we _were_ in the EU.
    Of course there would be such a treaty but as long as we have access to the single market we have the protection that you are talking about because any attempt to limit an EEA member from trading freely across the single market would be against the fundamental freedoms promised by the EU. What we would not be involved in is their procedures by which they fix and regulate their domestic budgets, something we have no interest in.
    We have the protection in the negotiated text that there will be no discrimination between EZ and non-EZ countries. Likewise, as a non-EZ member, most of the banking union doesn't apply to UK banks doing business in the UK.

    Now, of course, if like many on this board the thinking is that this protection will be struck down (although it has of course been tested in the courts already who found in our favour), then yes, voting to Leave is the right thing to do.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsPR: Pleased to say @nicholaswatt is the new Political Editor of @BBCNewsnight #Newsnight https://t.co/6n1VCMdeWy https://t.co/MDSU2pwWWR

    just need PaddyPower to settle the market now

    Guardian TV adds another member....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Moses_ said:

    5 years, vetoes? If it is for remain then the day after the vote the flood gates will open from Europe. Demands for complete integration and the Euro will be deafening they just will not ever miss such a golden opportunity we will quite simply be hung strung and gutted in the quickest time possible.

    To think anything else is just utterly naive

    The problem is that, inasmuch as that it is true, it's massively more true in the event of a Leave vote, when the hangers, stringers and gutters wouldn't even have the inconvenience of having to work around the protections we get under the Treaties.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361
    edited March 2016
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.

    But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.
    I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.

    I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.

    More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
    But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?
    My point is that at the moment we have an unhappy compromise by which the majority of member states have agreed to use additional co-operation provisions to regulate extremely important parts of their affairs but do not have access to the full panoply of EU institutions because there are non-EZ members. The EZ members are not happy with this and I have given examples of why they should not be.

    Sooner or later they are going to want to integrate the 2 set ups so that there can be some sort of democratic accountability to very important parts of their governance.

    It is not really true that the EU does not opine on UK banks but that is a different argument and that is not my point. My point is that the EU is not going to stay as it is. It never has. It is going to change and change in ways that make the views of non EZ members increasingly irrelevant.
  • Options

    Speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels with the European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, Mr Valls said:

    "I think unity is all the more essential when we are under attack, this brings us together as Europeans, we have reaffirmed our attachment to the European project and we want to make sure that Europe is stronger in future than it is today."

    They just don't get it. Two bit eurocrats heading for a fall, and I am for remain but very unsure
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,399
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    It will, in my opinion, result in us leaving or at least moving nearer to an EEA type arrangement. Better to do it now I think but whatever, unless there is a serious change of view on the part of the UK public, that is where I think we will end up.

    But that's a good outcome, not a bad outcome. If we can gently disengage without the disruption of leaving, and at the same time get concessions favourable to us because we'll have a veto on the next treaty, then what's not to like? I'd say that was a particularly attractive scenario. I'm not particularly optimistic that it will happen, however; I think it's more likely that the Eurozone will fudge things as usual and there won't be any new treaty for many years.
    I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.

    I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.

    More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
    But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?
    My point is that at the moment we have an unhappy compromise by which the majority of member states have agreed to use additional co-operation provisions to regulate extremely important parts of their affairs but do not have access to the full panoply of EU institutions because there are non-EU members. The EZ members are not happy with this and I have given examples of why they should not be.

    Sooner or later they are going to want to integrate the 2 set ups so that there can be some sort of democratic accountability to very important parts of their governance.

    It is not really true that the EU does not opine on UK banks but that is a different argument and that is not my point. My point is that the EU is not going to stay as it is. It never has. It is going to change and change in ways that make the views of non EZ members increasingly irrelevant.
    True, but not as irrelevant as if we were not in the EU at all!

    The argument seems to be that we should leave and let the EU do its own thing because if we stay the EU will do it's own thing.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    JackW said:

    It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.

    She can thank the GOP throwing the kitchen sink at Trump for those leads. They were polling fairly closely before the Republican opposition to Trump really got going. Come November it will be very different.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.

    Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:



    Nonetheless, whenever the IRA connection is raised, the Queen having lunch with him should be dragged up to show if it was good enough for the Queen to mix with this lot, then it was good enough for Corbyn too !

    If they are all murdering thugs, the Queen, surely, should not have invited one of them, right ?

    The Queen did what the Government asked her to do.

    As I recall, Charles was very upset with the whole idea and scheduled it so the meeting could only be in the village that he last spent time with Mountbatten before his godfather was murdered
  • Options
    I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacks
  • Options
    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    JackW said:

    shiney2 said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump

    JackW said:


    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.
    Indeed.

    It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.

    Dull it'll not be .... :smile:

    There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..
    Not quite sure where the "big surprise" is coming from? .. The nominations are a done deal.

    It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.
    I was referring to the GE when current sanders sympathisers will (probably) have a choice of Trump, Clinton or sitting it out.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Speaking at a joint news conference in Brussels with the European Commissioner Jean Claude Juncker, Mr Valls said:

    "I think unity is all the more essential when we are under attack, this brings us together as Europeans, we have reaffirmed our attachment to the European project and we want to make sure that Europe is stronger in future than it is today."

    This sounds like the sort of Spam text you would put on a web page to get a high ranking. These days Google would throw it out as being of poor quality content.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.

    Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
    It's only cost-neutral if the government doesn't put more investment into weekend cover on top of what exists now.
  • Options

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.

    Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
    The last thing Hunt will do is to surrender to this. The doctors are going to lose now - it is only a matter of time
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SebastianEPayne: Someone has been at Katy Clark's Wikipedia page @PickardJE https://t.co/xg7qDlcsoY
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Just seen that junior doctors will walk out of A&E:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239

    Not sure the public will be impressed.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,361
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    .

    I think it is a bad scenario because it means the current uncertainty will go on indefinitely and because it means the Tories will continue to divide on the issue.

    I think it will happen because, for example, the present scenario where the ECB is effectively not an EU institution is really not acceptable. If there is to be any kind of democratic control the ECB needs to be made more accountable and the EU Parliament is the obvious body. Can't really do that at the moment. They will want the mechanisms of the CJE to hold countries to account in respect of budgets etc as well.

    More and more of the game will be the bit we don't want to play. We should get out of the road and let them get on with it with our best wishes.
    But the ECB doesn't opine on UK banks based in the UK. Or am I misunderstanding your point?
    My point is that at the moment we have an unhappy compromise by which the majority of member states have agreed to use additional co-operation provisions to regulate extremely important parts of their affairs but do not have access to the full panoply of EU institutions because there are non-EU members. The EZ members are not happy with this and I have given examples of why they should not be.

    Sooner or later they are going to want to integrate the 2 set ups so that there can be some sort of democratic accountability to very important parts of their governance.

    It is not really true that the EU does not opine on UK banks but that is a different argument and that is not my point. My point is that the EU is not going to stay as it is. It never has. It is going to change and change in ways that make the views of non EZ members increasingly irrelevant.
    True, but not as irrelevant as if we were not in the EU at all!

    The argument seems to be that we should leave and let the EU do its own thing because if we stay the EU will do it's own thing.
    For me, that pretty much is the argument. There are clear downsides to being in the EU but there are also upsides such as having a say in the rules for the Single Market. But if we lose the upsides of having a say then the reasons for staying weigh one way.

    What we need is an amicable, close relationship where we get access to the Single Market, they get to organise their own affairs and we continue to work together on issues we have in common, not least of which after yesterday is security.

    Anyway, must get some work done now.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    I see the foolish Docs have fallen into Hunt's trap.

    Cue 65/25 support/opposition for the Docs reversing....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited March 2016

    I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacks
    It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.

    How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.

    She can thank the GOP throwing the kitchen sink at Trump for those leads. They were polling fairly closely before the Republican opposition to Trump really got going. Come November it will be very different.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
    Why will it be different?

    Will the Trumpster suddenly find humility, grace and a countenance befitting the POTUS whilst the Democrats forget all the faults his GOP rivals have kindly alluded to?

    More importantly where will Trump find the extra voters outside of his base? There are not enough angry white working class males to fill the gap.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.

    Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
    Do you have figures for the numbers of consultants / senior doctors in hospitals when compared to junior doctors ?

    It seems ludicrous to say that this will not affect patient care, either in emergency care or elsewhere.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Bangladesh making India fight very hard to reach 146 after their 20 overs. Crowd quiet.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The chappy who ran off from the airport left the biggest bomb undetonated, after shoving it away.

    Bottled it at the last moment by the looks of it - thankfully.

    I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacks
    It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.

    How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Just seen that junior doctors will walk out of A&E:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239

    Not sure the public will be impressed.

    Mr Dancer,

    You might be interested in the following:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35882820
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited March 2016

    The chappy who ran off from the airport left the biggest bomb undetonated, after shoving it away.

    Bottled it at the last moment by the looks of it - thankfully.

    I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacks
    It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.

    How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.
    What is the world coming to...you just can't get the Jahadi's these days...no wonder ISIS are importing so many via Eastern Europe....
  • Options

    New Thread New Thread

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    shiney2 said:

    JackW said:

    shiney2 said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    JackW said:

    National - Quinnipiac

    Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
    Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38

    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate Trump

    JackW said:


    Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
    Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
    Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
    Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
    Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
    Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45

    Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.
    Indeed.

    It's the reason why the GOP establishment are pulling every stroke to avoid a Trump nomination but to no avail. Enough GOP voters will see him over the line and then admire his thoroughly entertaining but futile effort to defeat Clinton.

    Dull it'll not be .... :smile:

    There is a lot of class similarity between sanders and trump voters. The establishment could be due a big surprise..
    Not quite sure where the "big surprise" is coming from? .. The nominations are a done deal.

    It's Clinton/Trump in November and the average of the last four national polls gives Clinton a lead of just over 10 points.
    I was referring to the GE when current sanders sympathisers will (probably) have a choice of Trump, Clinton or sitting it out.
    The vast majority of Sanders voters will vote for Clinton. Your view was much speculated upon in 08 in a similar fashion when Obama defeated Clinton. They came back to the Democrat fold. The rest as they say ....
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.

    Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
    Do you have figures for the numbers of consultants / senior doctors in hospitals when compared to junior doctors ?

    It seems ludicrous to say that this will not affect patient care, either in emergency care or elsewhere.
    I haven't said that it won't affect care, but emergency care can be covered. It will cost financially as Consultants doing extra shifts will cost substantially more than the juniors being covered.

    Hunt has delivered an ultimatum, one that is unacceptable to the BMA JDC. They either back down or escalate. Escalation it is.

    Not going to impress the week before the elections (Scotland, Wales and NI will not be striking because the new contract does not apply in devolved nations).
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.

    Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.


    It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.

    No. It is no emergency cover from junior doctors. Senior doctors will cover (mostly at the expense of planned work). Indeed the emergency cover is going to be at a higher level of expertise.

    Perfectly open to withdraw his unilateral imposition and restart negotiations. The BMA JDC position was cost neutral.
    Do you have figures for the numbers of consultants / senior doctors in hospitals when compared to junior doctors ?

    It seems ludicrous to say that this will not affect patient care, either in emergency care or elsewhere.
    I haven't said that it won't affect care, but emergency care can be covered. It will cost financially as Consultants doing extra shifts will cost substantially more than the juniors being covered.

    Hunt has delivered an ultimatum, one that is unacceptable to the BMA JDC. They either back down or escalate. Escalation it is.

    Not going to impress the week before the elections (Scotland, Wales and NI will not be striking because the new contract does not apply in devolved nations).
    You make it sound like the strike is political.

    And at least you finally admit the strikes do harm care.
This discussion has been closed.