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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primar
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primaries
The results from the latest three primaries are almost all in with victories for Clinton and Trump in the biggest, Arizona, and for Cruz and Sanders in Utah.
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1) BUYING NICE STUFF CHEAP - YOU KNOW THAT INTERNATIONAL TRADE IS ALL DOWN TO THE EU RIGHT??
2) CHEAPS FLIGHTS TO SOMEWHERE SUNNY
and
3) TERRORISM. Gosh, the world's a dangerous place, isn't it? Are you sure we can really look after ourselves?
I don't want to kick off the normal discussion about whether we are better equipped to protect ourselves from terrorism in or out of the EU, but I'm fairly sure that Cameron is the more skilled of the players at using the general sense of fear caused by the Brussels attacks and other events to further his cause.
@aljwhite: Taylor Swift's squad is "neutral but not hostile." https://t.co/OzZiAZK4fs
Irony of @SamCoatesTimes's excellent leaked list of Labour's 'core' MPs is many of 'core +' group berate him to me https://t.co/984uuhLsLX
* He made a little over £1 billion from his business empire. Bought his wife a flat in London and a house in Dublin (£1m each). Bought each of his 3 kids a £1m flat. Gave his wife £10m in cash and each of his kids £1m in cash. Total outlay: £18m. Reckoned that fulfilled his moral obligation to provide for his family, so he gave the other £1 billion away.
Intriguingly, Atlantic has a Sunset Clause - wouldn't work for me, but an interesting concept. By the time they wind down, they reckon they will have given away $8 billion.
http://www.atlanticphilanthropies.org/our-story
Salon
Tintin’s racist history: This symbol of Brussels solidarity is uncomfortably divisive https://t.co/fo7XH1wu7M https://t.co/eRU5dO3LAe
Received a BSE leaflet through the door, looked like one from a pizza place, all primary colours, telling me how jobs, wealth, you name it would be better/increased/etc by staying in. Totally b**sh*t stats no doubt.
Pathetic.
If that is the level of debate god help us. Then again, goodness only knows what the Leave one will look like; presumably edged in black.
* He made a little over £1 billion from his business empire. Bought his wife a flat in London and a house in Dublin (£1m each). Bought each of his 3 kids a £1m flat. Gave his wife £10m in cash and each of his kids £1m in cash. Total outlay: £18m. Reckoned that fulfilled his moral obligation to provide for his family, so he gave the other £1 billion away.
Intriguingly, Atlantic has a Sunset Clause - wouldn't work for me, but an interesting concept. By the time they wind down, they reckon they will have given away $8 billion.
http://www.atlanticphilanthropies.org/our-story
To all intents and purposes there is no limit on the amount of booze and fags you can bring back from the EU. Duty free is very different. From memory it's something like a bottle of whisky, five bottles of wine, 24 beers and 200 ciggies.
Leave has an EIGHTEEN point lead among 45+.
The base weightings seem to favour Remain as well with the under 35s over-represented compared to normal turnout.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/op6309_guardian_europe_uncovered_-_tables_website_0.pdf
ICM seem to have published the wrong tables.
On the Democratic side of last night's primaries the tenor of the press coverage is along the lines of "Clinton wins Arizona to march onwards although Sanders picks up consolation prizes in Utah and Idaho."
But all three states are proportionate delegate allocation, 75/33/23 respectively. Plugging in the vote share in the thread header I get to HC 56 / BS 75 (some rounding assumptions in getting to those numbers). On that basis Sanders has improved his position with delegates, and if we're looking to the momentum narrative, won two states to one. Yet the headlines call it for HRC when (to coin a phrase) the obvious call is BS.
What have I missed?
The penny finally starts to drop for the Belgian Interior Minister. https://t.co/1DY84qkrPY
Generalised unease drives people to vote for the status quo. The trick is not to make anything so specific that it's susceptible to an argument on the underlying logic of the threat which could demonstrate that actually the status quo is more dangerous. Or at least make sure that's so far down the line from initial claim, counter claim, and smear of "playing politics with this issue" that everyone except the nerds has lost interest in the discussion.
I scroll passed stories about cartoons, projections of flags, blah de blah hashtags. And It's Nothing To Do With Islam commentary.
Enough already.
Rt Honorable John
I've run Google Translate through Corbyns ranking of Labour MPs. https://t.co/m09ZiJT3Yu
Heroes of the People's Revolution 19;
Outer cadre 56;
Useful Idiots 72;
Running dogs 49;
Imperialist devils 36.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4719481.ece
"Jihadists have for years ruthlessly exploited the chronic dysfunction at the heart of the Belgian system of governance to use the divided country at the heart of Europe as a base for murderous attacks.
The story of Belgian counterterrorism is one of miscommunication, rivalry and mistrust that has hampered the response to the nest of terrorists incubated and concentrated in the capital’s Molenbeek district.
Appalling lapses in co-operation between a dozen different security and police authorities have been exacerbated by similar problems liaising with neighbouring France."
"Arguments between France and Belgium have been building as evidence of security failures has grown. The Belgian prosecutor’s office said it was angry that the French published the name of a suspect in the Paris attacks, Chakib Akrouh, before the Belgians searched the houses of his relatives.
Well crying and lighting candles is easy. Actually doing something concrete to stamp out this murderous extremism is not.
Rubio, Marco A. 70,499 13.46%
Kasich, John Richard 52,450 10.02%
Beaten by a non runner. How utterly humiliating for Kasich.
The Sun wins front page of the year at the Society of Press Awards for 'BUSTED' https://t.co/SaEGlCdwjI https://t.co/4sjPMDjU9s
Mind you, if they were led by someone other than Farage they'd be in a better place.
"In addition [to the 40 RNC delegates] , the [Utah] Precinct Caucuses elect approximately 4,000 delegates to the County and State Conventions"
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/UT-R
4000?
To do what, exactly?
NUS delegates pass a motion that blames “cis gay men” for “misogyny, transphobia, racism and biphobia”. https://t.co/J0pVwr15Sz
From a design perspective the main pages looks very crowded and busy - nothing jumps out at me.
Key messages (on the outside):
[On a black background] Leaving Europe would be a leap in the dark / Jobs, prices, worker's rights and national security would be at risk if we left
[On a red background] More jobs / lower prices. Your family is better off with Britain in Europe.
Seems pretty marginal in terms of positive claims (they claim "lower prices" because "it is cheaper to trade with Europe"); the jobs claim isn't stacked up specifically but they do say "over 200,000 UK businesses trade with the UK, helping them grow and create jobs in the UK".
On the negative claims, they quote Hugh Orde talking about the European Arrest Warrant and claiming that it helped bring one of the 7/2005 London bombers to justice (as if extradition/international cooperation wouldn't have worked). On jobs they quote the 200 business chiefs from the Times; they quote the Telegraph on military chiefs saying we are at risk from Isil and Russia; and they quote the AA saying petrol prices could go up 19p.
Doesn't feel particularly strong, overall, although I admit to being someone jaundiced.
The black and white cat?
It matters not if 999 Muslims out of a thousand are as appalled as anyone else by such attacks - the terrorists don't need that many recruits, after all.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/23/new-zealand-flag-change-as-voting-ends-poll-shows-little-hope-for-new-design
Also says something for the competence of the Labour leadership that their own list manages to omit 17 Labour MPs. #loyaltylist
Yes, although technically EU is for personal consumption. I'm not convinced that France would like to see it's hypermarches in Calais closed down, but either way the impact will be small beer (sorry)
In some quarters the EU has been blamed for years for just about every problem we have. If they win it will be very gratifying watching how it unfolds. Although I will be voting Remain a part of me would like to see the Leavers have to put their money where their mouths are for once.
Yep, it's not a big one. It will be good news for smugglers though.
Supposed to be a single market, innit?
So there should be no customs. Ever.
http://beta.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/analysis-how-britain-cracked-down-on-londonistan-v20tvldnq
Over the last decade or so London has gone from being a terrorist and extremist safe-haven to being extremely hostile to those who seek to harm us. It's one of those policy changes that is extremely under-appreciated.
Presumably expectation management comes into it too - not sure how these states came out compared with realistic expectations and whether this was over/underperformance for either candidate.
'There are going to be a lot of very, very angry Leave voters should Leave win. '
You keep repeating that week after week,presumably based on your hope that after a Leave vote we will join EFTA, if we are not part of EFTA or EEA we can of course have our own independent immigration policy.
You already know that but it doesn't fit with project Fear..
”He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security.”
Yokel told us last night that any criticisms of the Belgian security services were "entirely incorrect".
Well there's a surprise - exactly as I predicted yesterday.
Obviously the Remain side didn't take on board OGH's admonition not to use yesterday's carnage to make political points
That said,
'Vote Remain for German and French spies to legally snoop on you and read your emails. For counter-terrorism to be overseen by incompetent and corrupt foreign governments'
doesn't strike me as a vote winner
We could try cutting duties. And investing in the Outland Revenue.
Following by a lot of wine as people will be in very low spirits.
Terrorism can't be entirely stopped. The idea it can be is a blatant falsehood.
There are 70 references to Belgium in IS documents obtained by Sky, writes @ramsaysky https://t.co/xjxsUGPRXa https://t.co/PgTzC2zJra
Liberty refers to all free citizens and members of a demos. Clearly our modern views on who are members of the demos have changed in the last 250 years, but it doesn't invalidate the argument.
TinTin and the Blue Lotus (set in 1930s China) depicts the Japanese very badly, but the Chinese as long suffering and courageous. Etc etc.
Mostly TinTin is a reflection of attitudes of the times, with national stereotypes as the butt of the jokes, but usually affectionately. Many Tin Tin stories show him treating foreigners with courtesey and respect, freeing the african slaves being traffiked by Rastopopolous in The Crab with the Golden Claws for example. Indeed the rapracious villans are white Europeans!
3rd bomber suspect under arrest and in custody
http://www.jewishnews.co.uk/exclusive-labour-urged-to-suspend-councillor-over-hitler-and-isis-posts/
Haven't had anything from a Leave campaign. A few weeks ago, got a large leaflet of doom-laden woe from Remain.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/23/labour-reinstates-suspended-corbynista-who-said-jews-behind-isis-and-911/
That's two on the same day.