One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
I think we can put John Woodcock down as "neutral but not hostile" on the list.
By the way, didn't Stalin like these kinds of lists? I think he managed to keep them all in his head though.
Yeah, you're right, it's only on the extreme left that political parties can split into warring factions where the leader needs to have an awareness of who is on which side in case he needs a sympathetic hearing/new S of S for DWP etc etc.
Special hour long Panorama this evening at 9pm looks interesting.
"Examining how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it, from highly organised cells, like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within communities"
The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.
Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.
I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)
Alaska 67 Hawaii 70 Washington 67 <- Most important
Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>
Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.
I'm going back to cricket analogies after Richard N pointed out the snag about the foray into cigars...
I think Carswell (and Evans perhaps) has more in common with the 140 Tory Leave MPs than he does with Farage and his cult.
Agree entirely. |But since those 140 MPs do not currently hold power in the Tory party that is rather a moot point.
They held enough power to force the Prime Minister to hold this referendum against his wishes as even with the Lib Dems last Parliament the writing was on the wall that there were enough rebels to bring this to a head.
The bungles were highlighted last week with the arrest of Salah Abdeslam, a suspect in the Paris outrages, during a raid on an apartment in Brussels months after he’d gone to ground in a seedy quarter of the capital.
Although the Belgian national had been known to law enforcement agencies before the November outrages, he’d managed to travel across the border to France, where he bought detonators using his driving licence as proof of identity.
Tangentially, this may help explain Trump's poor ratings with Mormons -- since Mormons commonly spend long periods abroad, they might be less impressed by Trump's scapegoating foreigners.
Tangentially, this may help explain Trump's poor ratings with Mormons -- since Mormons commonly spend long periods abroad, they might be less impressed by Trump's scapegoating foreigners.
More likely down to (a) being a more cohesive group (b) being more dedicated at a caucus (c) being more socially conservative and (d) holding a much better opinion of Romney, who endorsed Cruz.
Tangentially, this may help explain Trump's poor ratings with Mormons -- since Mormons commonly spend long periods abroad, they might be less impressed by Trump's scapegoating foreigners.
Last night's results clarified nothing and just made more questions than answers to be perfectly frank.
One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principle
The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.
Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.
I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)
Alaska 67 Hawaii 70 Washington 67 <- Most important
Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>
Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.
I'm going back to cricket analogies after Richard N pointed out the snag about the foray into cigars...
I'm sure that there's no risk at all of you getting into Clinton-related trouble with cricketing analogies, as the Afghanistan batsmen ruin another maiden with a tickle around the corner.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principle
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.
The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.
Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.
I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)
Alaska 67 Hawaii 70 Washington 67 <- Most important
Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>
Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.
I'm going back to cricket analogies after Richard N pointed out the snag about the foray into cigars...
I'm sure that there's no risk at all of you getting into Clinton-related trouble with cricketing analogies, as the Afghanistan batsmen ruin another maiden with a tickle around the corner.
Sanders has avoided the follow on, he is 190 runs behind though. Openers batting well for the moment.
One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principle
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.
Indeed but equally people get more Europhile the richer and more educated they are
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.
Careful Norman Smith will be round screaming at you.
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.
Theresa May is saying right now that Trump is wrong.
The bit that got me...everything is done in English. So beware if you are a criminal in Norway or Belgium, make sure your English is up to scratch !!! So not only do you get banged up in another country, you have to speak another language too.
Is there an appeal process for Labour MPs who think they've been misclassified? For example, if you think you've been mis-categorised as 'Neutral But Not Hostile', are you allowed to apply for promotion to 'Core Group Negative'?
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.
Theresa May is saying right now that Trump is wrong.
She isn't still trying to push the bollocks about if we leave the EU all intelligence sharing will be stopped...
. Apologists for Islamist terrorism insist it is a response to Western foreign policy, yet have no explanation for why, if that were the case, the terrorists target 20-year-olds at a rock gig rather than ministers of defence.
Or they say this terrorism is an expression of fury with Europe’s alleged mistreatment of Muslims, yet cannot explain why other groups that face prejudice — black Africans, Kurdish migrants, Jews — don’t also go to their nearest airport and blow it up.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Received a BSE leaflet through the door, looked like one from a pizza place, all primary colours, telling me how jobs, wealth, you name it would be better/increased/etc by staying in. Totally b**sh*t stats no doubt.
Pathetic.
If that is the level of debate god help us. Then again, goodness only knows what the Leave one will look like; presumably edged in black.
At least BSE are getting their leaflets out
Shooting of ammo before they know the target. And Vote Leave can reply - the last speech is the most important.
It will be disinformation and fear on both sides. John Redwood the other day said on the radio that we would have £12bn extra if we left, when even Civitas, in their pro-Brexit paper last year, put it at £1bn.
£12bn is possible, if we decide not to replace the EU spending in the UK. The realistic number is closer to £5-6bn.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
. Apologists for Islamist terrorism insist it is a response to Western foreign policy, yet have no explanation for why, if that were the case, the terrorists target 20-year-olds at a rock gig rather than ministers of defence.
Or they say this terrorism is an expression of fury with Europe’s alleged mistreatment of Muslims, yet cannot explain why other groups that face prejudice — black Africans, Kurdish migrants (*),, Jews — don’t also go to their nearest airport and blow it up.
(*)Last Sunday suicide bombers killed 37 people at a bus stop in the Turkish capital, Ankara. The militant Kurdistan freedom falcons (Tak) claimed responsibility for the attack.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Mr. Urquhart, only got 1.43 into it before I had to stop (at the word 'inflammatory'). Norman Smith is a damned fool.
I don't agree with Farage on lots of things, but he has highlighted that there could possibly be a tiny bit of a problem with a) arms being shipped across the EU and b) letting in millions of people to the EU area with no idea who they are and then left free to move around and c) that it is total nonsense that Out of the EU would mean no intelligence sharing. But Norman Smith can't jump down his throat fast enough.
Is there an appeal process for Labour MPs who think they've been misclassified? For example, if you think you've been mis-categorised as 'Neutral But Not Hostile', are you allowed to apply for promotion to 'Core Group Negative'?
@corbynjokes @corbynjokes I'm not saying my mother-in-law doesn't like me, but I've moved her from "core group negative" to "hostile".
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a whole
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist.
I
I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a whole
Not just with the Conservatives, it's happening in spades with the GOP and DEM races in the US, also see below on my terrorism post.
One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principle
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.
Indeed but equally people get more Europhile the richer and more educated they are
I expect the strong link with age is partly because there is an element within anti-EU sentiment of hankering for a lost (or imagined) past (Britain and its Empire bestriding the world, etc.) - which is a psychological condition that comes upon us all to some extent as we go through middle age - and partly because the opportunities to work, live and study throughout the EU are (with the small exception of retirees to foreign villas) more relevant to young people.
Also, in the Ryanair era, the young have more experience of travelling within other European cultures than do older people (excepting the dual-holiday brigade who are the 'richer and more educated' more pro-EU folks mentioned above).
Further, younger people have grown up in a Britain that is multi-cultural and international, with their experience of 'nationalism' conjuring up negative connotations of political extremism to weigh against the positive ones from patriotism. The older you are, the more likely the reverse is true, because of a youth lived through war (or more likely nowadays in the decades afterwards that were culturally within its shadow), when nationalism - in Britain at least (!) - was a 'good thing' and other countries, not so much.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
The point (as you well know) is that relying on an Internet poll, yet alone a ConHome one, in this manner is ridiculous. Any Internet survey where people have to self-certify whether they are party members is absolutely rife to be gamed.
The Yougov one is possibly more accurate, but with the same sort of problems (I guess - YouGov cannot know whether respondents are members or not?)
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a whole
Are you saying they're Core Group Negative so we should ignore them?
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a whole
Yougov found similar figures please see my post below.
The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
Not only funny but 17 mps were missed from the list. You couldn't make this stuff up
And the Jewish Chronicle hasn't been slow to spot where Jewish MPs have been listed......
Hang on, that makes no sense. You can't say someone in Labour is being anti-semitic by assessing which MPs don't like the current leadership and including the Jewish MPs in that group. I mean you might conclude that those MPs don't like the leadership because they perceive it as anti-semitic, but that's a different point.
Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.
Do you have evidence of that
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
Comments
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
"Examining how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it, from highly organised cells, like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within communities"
Although the Belgian national had been known to law enforcement agencies before the November outrages, he’d managed to travel across the border to France, where he bought detonators using his driving licence as proof of identity.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3505361/Lethal-failures-bungling-Belgians-Authorities-failed-prevent-atrocities-Brussels-hotbed-radical-Islamists-writes-MICHAEL-BURLEIGH.html
I thought not checking the wardrobe was bad....You just can't make this shit up...
Chris Blackwell
How would Greek history seem if we translated all names and terms, as happens with Native American history? https://t.co/e8EjqS0EXY
Maomentum
I gather the Labour leadership has spent the morning updating the loyalty list. https://t.co/PGpdryLCMq
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-allies-make-list-7611760
Why is PB full of England cricket fans who go all ponceyboots gaylord whenever England have a bad over?
Keep calm people.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/23/corbyn-yells-disgraceful-at-cameron-for-raising-anti-semitism/
So we can't bat, bowl or field. Are we going to win this?
Blue means you're an ultra loyalist and can be relied upon no matter what
Yellow means you're loyal but on a specific issue you have doubts but could be won over
Red means you're loyal but on a specific issue you have doubts but can't be won over
and Brown, for the shits like David Davis that will always vote against the Government, no matter what.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbULZ-nQ5yo
Tummon stays in. Labour HQ say Lasharie remains suspended https://t.co/606VfeaeJs
The Jewish Chronicle Verified account
@JewishChron
Chances of Corbyn dealing with Labour antisemitism are zero says @stephenpollard in his analysis of today's #PMQs
http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/155166/chances-corbyn-dealing-labour-antisemitism-are-zero …
Miss Plato, that's rather nice. I'm mildly surprised there aren't full translations like that (assuming they're aren't any. Perhaps there are?).
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.
The bit that got me...everything is done in English. So beware if you are a criminal in Norway or Belgium, make sure your English is up to scratch !!! So not only do you get banged up in another country, you have to speak another language too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-35873469
Also, the BBC piece refers only to female victims. From reports at the time, a third of the victims were boys.
Also an hour or so ago I posted on here a link to this article.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/03/andrew-lilico-unless-remain-wins-big-the-future-of-its-conservative-supporters-in-government-looks-doomed.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/19/istanbul-hit-by-deadly-bomb-attack
(*)Last Sunday suicide bombers killed 37 people at a bus stop in the Turkish capital, Ankara. The militant Kurdistan freedom falcons (Tak) claimed responsibility for the attack.
I'm not saying my mother-in-law doesn't like me, but I've moved her from "core group negative" to "hostile".
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/58-per-cent-of-party-members-tell-our-survey-that-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist.
Also, in the Ryanair era, the young have more experience of travelling within other European cultures than do older people (excepting the dual-holiday brigade who are the 'richer and more educated' more pro-EU folks mentioned above).
Further, younger people have grown up in a Britain that is multi-cultural and international, with their experience of 'nationalism' conjuring up negative connotations of political extremism to weigh against the positive ones from patriotism. The older you are, the more likely the reverse is true, because of a youth lived through war (or more likely nowadays in the decades afterwards that were culturally within its shadow), when nationalism - in Britain at least (!) - was a 'good thing' and other countries, not so much.
The Yougov one is possibly more accurate, but with the same sort of problems (I guess - YouGov cannot know whether respondents are members or not?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFwYJYl5GUQ
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
Hang on, that makes no sense. You can't say someone in Labour is being anti-semitic by assessing which MPs don't like the current leadership and including the Jewish MPs in that group. I mean you might conclude that those MPs don't like the leadership because they perceive it as anti-semitic, but that's a different point.
Over to you, TCPB.
(If you were honest, you would ignore the ConHome 'surveys' and go to the YouGov directly, which is at least professionally done).