politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primar
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Dear Josias.JosiasJessop said:
The point (as you well know) is that relying on an Internet poll, yet alone a ConHome one, in this manner is ridiculous. Any Internet survey where people have to self-certify whether they are party members is absolutely rife to be gamed.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK I concede that it is in the most recent survey a bigger lead than 2 for LEAVE for every 1 member wanting to REMAIN....JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/58-per-cent-of-party-members-tell-our-survey-that-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html
The Yougov one is possibly more accurate, but with the same sort of problems (I guess - YouGov cannot know whether respondents are members or not?)
Please feel free to ignore these indicators from two separate sources. Yougov have gathered data on the background of people and I trust them to be able to be reasonably accurate.*
I do suggest that you do not bet much money on what Conservative members are going to do.
*Although I do wish they would crack on and introduce the new weightings such as 3.5 65+ voters for every 18-24 voter in line with their own article on the subject.
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One final post. ConHome's 2005 Leadership surveys of members was very accurate on Cameron vs Davis. But do not let past performance sway your judgement....JosiasJessop said:
Surely that has the same problem of self-certification?TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
Over to you, TCPB.
(If you were honest, you would ignore the ConHome 'surveys' and go to the YouGov directly, which is at least professionally done).
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Well spotted. I find the swaggering by some Remainers rather teenage.
They make all manner of claims about how crap Leave is without much evidence, and don't mention their own failing one trick pony strategy.
The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-30 -
That doesn't really explain why people currently in their 40s should be more eurosceptic than they were in their 20s does it?IanB2 said:
I expect the strong link with age is partly because there is an element within anti-EU sentiment of hankering for a lost (or imagined) past (Britain and its Empire bestriding the world, etc.) - which is a psychological condition that comes upon us all to some extent as we go through middle age - and partly because the opportunities to work, live and study throughout the EU are (with the small exception of retirees to foreign villas) more relevant to young people.HYUFD said:
Indeed but equally people get more Europhile the richer and more educated they areSean_F said:
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.HYUFD said:
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principleweejonnie said:One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
Also, in the Ryanair era, the young have more experience of travelling within other European cultures than do older people (excepting the dual-holiday brigade who are the 'richer and more educated' more pro-EU folks mentioned above).
Further, younger people have grown up in a Britain that is multi-cultural and international, with their experience of 'nationalism' conjuring up negative connotations of political extremism to weigh against the positive ones from patriotism. The older you are, the more likely the reverse is true, because of a youth lived through war (or more likely nowadays in the decades afterwards that were culturally within its shadow), when nationalism - in Britain at least (!) - was a 'good thing' and other countries, not so much.0 -
Mr. Betting, worth noting both the Conservative Party and ConHome are not the same as they were 11 years ago.0
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The first source, and the one you were obsessing on, is absolute voodoo. The fact you seem to put any credence on such a poll is remarkable. And I'd say the same if it showed data the other way: voodoo is voodoo, even if you agree with it.TCPoliticalBetting said:Dear Josias.
Please feel free to ignore these indicators from two separate sources. Yougov have gathered data on the background of people and I trust them to be able to be reasonably accurate.*
I do suggest that you do not bet much money on what Conservative members are going to do.
*Although I do wish they would crack on and introduce the new weightings such as 3.5 65+ voters for every 18-24 voter in line with their own article on the subject.
The Yougov *might* be more accurate. It may even resemble the truth. But again, you are putting a great deal of hope in what must be a subsample.
It'd be good to see the tables.
It also amuses me that people take polling so steriously given what happened less than a year ago ...0 -
Members yes Tory voters are more evenly dividedTCPoliticalBetting said:
OK I concede that it is in the most recent survey a bigger lead than 2 for LEAVE for every 1 member wanting to REMAIN....JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/58-per-cent-of-party-members-tell-our-survey-that-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html0 -
IndeedIanB2 said:
I expect the strong link with age is partly because there is an element within anti-EU sentiment of hankering for a lost (or imagined) past (Britain and its Empire bestriding the world, etc.) - which is a psychological condition that comes upon us all to some extent as we go through middle age - and partly because the opportunities to work, live and study throughout the EU are (with the small exception of retirees to foreign villas) more relevant to young people.HYUFD said:
Indeed but equally people get more Europhile the richer and more educated they areSean_F said:
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.HYUFD said:
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principleweejonnie said:One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
Also, in the Ryanair era, the young have more experience of travelling within other European cultures than do older people (excepting the dual-holiday brigade who are the 'richer and more educated' more pro-EU folks mentioned above).
Further, younger people have grown up in a Britain that is multi-cultural and international, with their experience of 'nationalism' conjuring up negative connotations of political extremism to weigh against the positive ones from patriotism. The older you are, the more likely the reverse is true, because of a youth lived through war (or more likely nowadays in the decades afterwards that were culturally within its shadow), when nationalism - in Britain at least (!) - was a 'good thing' and other countries, not so much.0 -
Absurd US campus reaction to someone writing 'Trump 2016' in chalk. The commitment to an annual junket is a nice touch.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/03/22/chalk-one-up-to-donald-trump-at-emory-university/
Yesterday I received a visit from 40 to 50 student protesters upset by the unexpected chalkings on campus sidewalks and some buildings yesterday morning, in this case referencing Donald Trump. The students shared with me their concern that these messages were meant to intimidate...
It is important that we recognize, listen to, and honor the concerns of these students, as well as faculty and staff who may feel similarly.
On the heels of work begun by students last fall and advanced last month through the Racial Justice Retreat and subsequent working groups, Emory is taking a number of significant steps:
• Immediate refinements to certain policy and procedural deficiencies (for example, our bias incident reporting and response process);
• Regular and structured opportunities for difficult dialogues (like the Transforming Community Project of several years ago);
• A formal process to institutionalize identification, review, and addressing of social justice opportunities and issues; and
• Commitment to an annual retreat to renew our efforts.0 -
I'm not a remainer, but I still call b/s on the Conhome survey, and am extremely dubious about the YouGov one.Plato_Says said:Well spotted. I find the swaggering by some Remainers rather teenage.
They make all manner of claims about how crap Leave is without much evidence, and don't mention their own failing one trick pony strategy.
The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-30 -
SAFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE SPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPACCCCCCCCCEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEwilliamglenn said:Absurd US campus reaction to someone writing 'Trump 2016' in chalk. The commitment to an annual junket is a nice touch.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/03/22/chalk-one-up-to-donald-trump-at-emory-university/
Yesterday I received a visit from 40 to 50 student protesters upset by the unexpected chalkings on campus sidewalks and some buildings yesterday morning, in this case referencing Donald Trump. The students shared with me their concern that these messages were meant to intimidate...
It is important that we recognize, listen to, and honor the concerns of these students, as well as faculty and staff who may feel similarly.
On the heels of work begun by students last fall and advanced last month through the Racial Justice Retreat and subsequent working groups, Emory is taking a number of significant steps:
• Immediate refinements to certain policy and procedural deficiencies (for example, our bias incident reporting and response process);
• Regular and structured opportunities for difficult dialogues (like the Transforming Community Project of several years ago);
• A formal process to institutionalize identification, review, and addressing of social justice opportunities and issues; and
• Commitment to an annual retreat to renew our efforts.0 -
''The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.''
Remember the 'switchers' ???? those lib dem voters trending to labour which meant a tory victory in 2015 was impossible?0 -
At the risk of sounding naïve, can someone please explain to me why Anus Robertson (SNP) keeps asking questions at PMQs about more transparency about the SAS? There is something a little chilling about his preoccupation with these group (of what the PM called "very brave men").FrancisUrquhart said:
I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.Moses_ said:Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist.
I 0 -
Anus Robertson ?LadyBucket said:
At the risk of sounding naïve, can someone please explain to me why Anus Robertson (SNP) keeps asking questions at PMQs about more transparency about the SAS? There is something a little chilling about his preoccupation with these group (of what the PM called "very brave men").FrancisUrquhart said:
I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.Moses_ said:Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist. I
snigger
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'That doesn't really explain why people currently in their 40s should be more eurosceptic than they were in their 20s does it?'
No it doesn't but it's a comforting myth for those on the left. From the same stable as 'Tory voters are all dying off'.0 -
Did I mention you? No.JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a remainer, but I still call b/s on the Conhome survey, and am extremely dubious about the YouGov one.Plato_Says said:Well spotted. I find the swaggering by some Remainers rather teenage.
They make all manner of claims about how crap Leave is without much evidence, and don't mention their own failing one trick pony strategy.
The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-30 -
And today's best typo goes to, drum roll.... Lady Bucket
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williamglenn said:
Absurd US campus reaction to someone writing 'Trump 2016' in chalk. The commitment to an annual junket is a nice touch.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/03/22/chalk-one-up-to-donald-trump-at-emory-university/
Yesterday I received a visit from 40 to 50 student protesters upset by the unexpected chalkings on campus sidewalks and some buildings yesterday morning, in this case referencing Donald Trump. The students shared with me their concern that these messages were meant to intimidate...
It is important that we recognize, listen to, and honor the concerns of these students, as well as faculty and staff who may feel similarly.
On the heels of work begun by students last fall and advanced last month through the Racial Justice Retreat and subsequent working groups, Emory is taking a number of significant steps:
• Immediate refinements to certain policy and procedural deficiencies (for example, our bias incident reporting and response process);
• Regular and structured opportunities for difficult dialogues (like the Transforming Community Project of several years ago);
• A formal process to institutionalize identification, review, and addressing of social justice opportunities and issues; and
• Commitment to an annual retreat to renew our efforts.
That University seems to be creating a pretty hostile environment for any Trump supporters. Time for a delegation of them to go see the university president.
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With UKIP's latest problems, what are the odds of the Conservatives, Labour, and UKIP all have a new leader a year after the referendum?0
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True.HYUFD said:
Members yes Tory voters are more evenly dividedTCPoliticalBetting said:
OK I concede that it is in the most recent survey a bigger lead than 2 for LEAVE for every 1 member wanting to REMAIN....JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/58-per-cent-of-party-members-tell-our-survey-that-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html
FWIW My guesstimate spreadsheet has 55% for LEAVE 45% for REMAIN as its current assumption. But turnout for each of these widens the gap with LEAVE t/o 66% and REMAIN t/o 56%.
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I was mentioned in the post you were replying to ...Plato_Says said:Did I mention you? No.
JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a remainer, but I still call b/s on the Conhome survey, and am extremely dubious about the YouGov one.Plato_Says said:Well spotted. I find the swaggering by some Remainers rather teenage.
They make all manner of claims about how crap Leave is without much evidence, and don't mention their own failing one trick pony strategy.
The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-30 -
UKIP is the hard one unless Farage flounces off. AFAIK there is no mechanism to remove FARAGE - but I stand to be corrected.JosiasJessop said:With UKIP's latest problems, what are the odds of the Conservatives, Labour, and UKIP all have a new leader a year after the referendum?
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And all the scatter graphs? And their mystical ability to defy electoral gravity?
Confirmation bias in action writ large given the final result.taffys said:''The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.''
Remember the 'switchers' ???? those lib dem voters trending to labour which meant a tory victory in 2015 was impossible?0 -
Juncker on France 24 talking about unsurprisingly 'more Europe'0
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He had asked a question in the past about Ground troops in Libya and would we get a vote on it.LadyBucket said:
At the risk of sounding naïve, can someone please explain to me why Anus Robertson (SNP) keeps asking questions at PMQs about more transparency about the SAS? There is something a little chilling about his preoccupation with these group (of what the PM called "very brave men").FrancisUrquhart said:
I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.Moses_ said:Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist. I
Dave said yes we would get a vote if conventional forces were sent.
Now this raises some interesting questions as the SAS aren't conventional forces and have they already been deployed.
Now it comes down to how you classify non conventional forces. 16 AAB has elements that aren't strictly conventional and support the Special reconnaissance Service.
He's right to raise them.0 -
I hope it wasn't autocorrectSimonStClare said:And today's best typo goes to, drum roll.... Lady Bucket
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I never go to ConHome.JosiasJessop said:
Surely that has the same problem of self-certification?TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
Over to you, TCPB.
(If you were honest, you would ignore the ConHome 'surveys' and go to the YouGov directly, which is at least professionally done).
So it may be under-recording Leavers... ;-)0 -
Suicide bombers named as the El Bakraoui brothers, aged 27 and 24, both with violent criminal records
Khalid Bakraoui, 27, is suspected to have rented a house under a false name in the Forest suburb of Brussels which was raided by police last week in connection with the Paris attacks.
Mohamed Belkaid, a key member of the Paris plot who had accompanied Salah Abdeslam on a trip to Hungary and who transferred cash to the plot’s mastermind, was killed in the raid, and an Isil flag found next to him. Two men got away.
According to local media, both El Bakraoui brothers were known to the police.
In October 2010, Ibrahim was sentenced to nine years in prison for opening fire on police with a Kalashnikov rifle during an armed robbery on a stockbroker.
Khalid was sentenced to five years probation in February 2011 for car-jackings. He was found to have Kalashnikovs when arrested.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12201940/Brussels-attack-suspects-unmasked-the-El-Bakraoui-brothers.html
No wonder Dupont and Dupond managed to become leading detectives...0 -
Not really. Even the Tory private polling a month before the election had most of the Lib Dem held seats too close to call.Plato_Says said:And all the scatter graphs? And their mystical ability to defy electoral gravity?
Confirmation bias in action writ large given the final result.taffys said:''The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.''
Remember the 'switchers' ???? those lib dem voters trending to labour which meant a tory victory in 2015 was impossible?
Why do you think Ozzy was texting Clegg on Election Day trying to arrange a second coalition.0 -
He means the band.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Juncker on France 24 talking about unsurprisingly 'more Europe'
http://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw0 -
The British public do enjoy surprising the pollsters.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really. Even the Tory private polling a month before the election had most of the Lib Dem held seats too close to call.Plato_Says said:And all the scatter graphs? And their mystical ability to defy electoral gravity?
Confirmation bias in action writ large given the final result.taffys said:''The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.''
Remember the 'switchers' ???? those lib dem voters trending to labour which meant a tory victory in 2015 was impossible?
Why do you think Ozzy was texting Clegg on Election Day trying to arrange a second coalition.0 -
'Even the Tory private polling a month before the election had most of the Lib Dem held seats too close to call'
If that's true, then it was cr*p.0 -
Rochdale Pioneers..it was probably predictive text...
0 -
It'd be interesting to know the arrangement and loyalties of the people at the top of UKIP: it does seem that they are very Farage-friendly, probably due to the party's history. Is this holding them back?TCPoliticalBetting said:
UKIP is the hard one unless Farage flounces off. AFAIK there is no mechanism to remove FARAGE - but I stand to be corrected.JosiasJessop said:With UKIP's latest problems, what are the odds of the Conservatives, Labour, and UKIP all have a new leader a year after the referendum?
I think it's 50:50 whether Cameron is Conservative leader in a year. As for Labour, it would depend on Labour MPs getting a backbone.
A question: if leave wins and Corbyn does little or no campaigning for remain, how will that play with a) the party leadership, b) the membership, and c) Labour voters.
I guess that a and b are generally pro-remain, and would be disconsolate. But hat about c) ?0 -
Think Defence lists all MoD questions and the responses (or used to do). Robertson used to be interested in things relating to a fair split of military assets between UK and Scotland.0
-
You've said you're intending to vote Leave, why would you get huffed by my observation of Remainers?
I'm perplexed. And if you don't like YouGov, perhaps you'd offer an alternative evidence source?JosiasJessop said:
I was mentioned in the post you were replying to ...Plato_Says said:Did I mention you? No.
JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a remainer, but I still call b/s on the Conhome survey, and am extremely dubious about the YouGov one.Plato_Says said:Well spotted. I find the swaggering by some Remainers rather teenage.
They make all manner of claims about how crap Leave is without much evidence, and don't mention their own failing one trick pony strategy.
The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Snip
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-30 -
It turned out to be accurate. Their final poll had the Tories getting 329 MPsrunnymede said:'Even the Tory private polling a month before the election had most of the Lib Dem held seats too close to call'
If that's true, then it was cr*p.0 -
My family lived in Ireland for 750 years. The British thought we were Irish; the Irish thought we were British...Innocent_Abroad said:
The Irish have never been British. That was the whole point of Nationalism, pacific or murderous.SouthamObserver said:
Hmmm. I am not sure that British voters will flock to support a party led by a man who openly and vociferously advocated support for an organisation whose aim was to force British citizens by bullet and bomb into a foreign country against their wishes.Polruan said:
Actually I think McDonnell could manage it. There's not exactly a lack of "terrorist sympathisers" or "dictator supporters" (let alone actual terrorists) who have been able to reinvent themselves. Corbyn is more of a problem, because of his inability to project a clear, strong, reassuring message without being sidetracked into a brief dissertation on the rights of terrorists' families and the tragedy it might be for their parents to be killed/locked up (for example).SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha - recent events have shown just how unsuitable Corbyn and McDonnell are as Labour leaders. National security is a huge issue to ordinary voters and neither has the credentials to provide any reassurance.Polruan said:
A bit like Corbyn and McDonnell....?SouthamObserver said:
They are superb social documents and give a real insight into the "liberal" thinking of that period. They probably are racist, but so what? Dickens is profoundly anti-Semitic, as was Hemingway (who was also a racist). They were of their time. And that fact does not diminish their greatness.foxinsoxuk said:
"TinTin in the Congo" is really quite racist (though more in a patronising "africans as children" way rather than malicious). The treatment of animals is the most shocking thing to modern eyes though!Plato_Says said:Dearie me
Salon
Tintin’s racist history: This symbol of Brussels solidarity is uncomfortably divisive https://t.co/fo7XH1wu7M https://t.co/eRU5dO3LAe
TinTin and the Blue Lotus (set in 1930s China) depicts the Japanese very badly, but the Chinese as long suffering and courageous. Etc etc.
Mostly TinTin is a reflection of attitudes of the times, with national stereotypes as the butt of the jokes, but usually affectionately. Many Tin Tin stories show him treating foreigners with courtesey and respect, freeing the african slaves being traffiked by Rastopopolous in The Crab with the Golden Claws for example. Indeed the rapracious villans are white Europeans!0 -
Unfortunately not.TheScreamingEagles said:
He means the band.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Juncker on France 24 talking about unsurprisingly 'more Europe'
http://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw0 -
From Paris to Brussels: Why the attacks are linked
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35879401
More evidence all this essential Europe wide intelligence sharing that we will lose if we leave the EU isn't looking so hot.0 -
The trend is surely with leave now?SeanT said:ComRes/Mail (#EURef):
#REMAIN 48 (-3)
#LEAVE 41 (+2)
Dates 18th-20th March
N=1,0020 -
Me neither, I read maybe an occasional tweeted Mark Wallace articleMarqueeMark said:
I never go to ConHome.JosiasJessop said:
Surely that has the same problem of self-certification?TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
Over to you, TCPB.
(If you were honest, you would ignore the ConHome 'surveys' and go to the YouGov directly, which is at least professionally done).
So it may be under-recording Leavers... ;-)0 -
But not if an attempt at political point scoring, puts the lives of any service personnel at risk.TheScreamingEagles said:
He had asked a question in the past about Ground troops in Libya and would we get a vote on it.LadyBucket said:
At the risk of sounding naïve, can someone please explain to me why Anus Robertson (SNP) keeps asking questions at PMQs about more transparency about the SAS? There is something a little chilling about his preoccupation with these group (of what the PM called "very brave men").FrancisUrquhart said:
I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.Moses_ said:Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist. I
Dave said yes we would get a vote if conventional forces were sent.
Now this raises some interesting questions as the SAS aren't conventional forces and have they already been deployed.
Now it comes down to how you classify non conventional forces. 16 AAB has elements that aren't strictly conventional and support the Special reconnaissance Service.
He's right to raise them.0 -
I suggest you re-read the thread.Plato_Says said:You've said you're intending to vote Leave, why would you get huffed by my observation of Remainers?
I'm perplexed. And if you don't like YouGov, perhaps you'd offer an alternative evidence source?JosiasJessop said:
I was mentioned in the post you were replying to ...Plato_Says said:Did I mention you? No.
JosiasJessop said:
I'm not a remainer, but I still call b/s on the Conhome survey, and am extremely dubious about the YouGov one.Plato_Says said:Well spotted. I find the swaggering by some Remainers rather teenage.
They make all manner of claims about how crap Leave is without much evidence, and don't mention their own failing one trick pony strategy.
The public hasn't trended Leave by accident. It's all a bit reminiscent of Lib Dems Winning Here before the GE.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Snip
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
There isn't a good (public) alternate source. The only people who might have one are the Conservatives, and they probably won't share if they did.0 -
Just to say the fieldwork was at a shite time for Dave.
But good news for Leave0 -
Indeed.watford30 said:
But not if an attempt at political point scoring, puts the lives of any service personnel at risk.TheScreamingEagles said:
He had asked a question in the past about Ground troops in Libya and would we get a vote on it.LadyBucket said:
At the risk of sounding naïve, can someone please explain to me why Anus Robertson (SNP) keeps asking questions at PMQs about more transparency about the SAS? There is something a little chilling about his preoccupation with these group (of what the PM called "very brave men").FrancisUrquhart said:
I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.Moses_ said:Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist. I
Dave said yes we would get a vote if conventional forces were sent.
Now this raises some interesting questions as the SAS aren't conventional forces and have they already been deployed.
Now it comes down to how you classify non conventional forces. 16 AAB has elements that aren't strictly conventional and support the Special reconnaissance Service.
He's right to raise them.0 -
You mean before Corbyn had reminded people of the alternative (again)?TheScreamingEagles said:Just to say the fieldwork was at a shite time for Dave.
But good news for Leave0 -
Very good poll for Leave. There is now no doubt that opinion is moving towards Leave. Don't see current prices hanging around for long.TheScreamingEagles said:Just to say the fieldwork was at a shite time for Dave.
But good news for Leave0 -
Yup.DavidL said:
You mean before Corbyn had reminded people of the alternative (again)?TheScreamingEagles said:Just to say the fieldwork was at a shite time for Dave.
But good news for Leave
Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday inclusive.0 -
And it is a phone poll.
We're getting the Ipsos Mori phone poll next week0 -
As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").
However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.0 -
0
-
You might be right, but you sound more than a little like a Nat in the months leading up to the Indyref.SeanT said:
Yes. On present trends LEAVE is going to win.JosiasJessop said:
The trend is surely with leave now?SeanT said:ComRes/Mail (#EURef):
#REMAIN 48 (-3)
#LEAVE 41 (+2)
Dates 18th-20th March
N=1,002
Waverers are going to break to IN, big-style.0 -
Oi!!! I heard that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Someone recently compared Farage to Moses.Sean_F said:
I think that you do need an ego the size of a planet, to spend years building up a political party from nowhere. The problem is that it prevents you from working with other people who are capable.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ego.Casino_Royale said:
I've totally gone off Farage in the last year.TheScreamingEagles said:
Just what on earth is his problem?
UKIP is a cult (sic) of Leadership
It annoys me beyond measure, the way that Farage (and some other politicians) do their damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
He led the Eurosceptic movement for decades, but it was someone else who has to lead them to the promised land.
He just can't accept that.
0 -
ComRes:
23/3/16 Remain 48%, Leave 41%
22/2/16 Remain 51%, Leave 39%
14/2/16 Remain 49%, Leave 41%
Looks pretty static to me.0 -
Maybe. Nothing is worse for Cameron than losing the referendum though.Danny565 said:As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").
However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.0 -
It makes the site a lot more interesting if we are going to go back to believing all the polls.Wanderer said:
Yes, previous ComRes's have been phone. I'd be amazed if that one isn't.SeanT said:Think this last poll, showing a significant narrowing, is a phone poll?
This is getting VERY scary for REMAIN0 -
No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.0
-
SeanT - Yes, as I said, it looks pretty static. Around 49%/40%. You are getting over-excited (not for the first time!) because the previous poll was a bit higher for Remain.
0 -
Who do you have down for POTUS ?SouthamObserver said:No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.
0 -
LOLTOPPING said:
It makes the site a lot more interesting if we are going to go back to believing all the polls.Wanderer said:
Yes, previous ComRes's have been phone. I'd be amazed if that one isn't.SeanT said:Think this last poll, showing a significant narrowing, is a phone poll?
This is getting VERY scary for REMAIN0 -
Off topic
The devolution deal for the North East looks to be having problems. Gateshead voted against it last night, County Durham asked for more time to avoid a vote against it this morning...
Meanwhile the Teesside version has either disappeared off the radar or my googlefu has failed me....0 -
Yes, as we know the online polls show a different picture. And yes, ComRes showed a better figure for Remain last year..SeanT said:
Jeezo, look at the graph. Last year REMAIN was 20 points ahead, or more. Now it's 7. And this is the poll most favourable to REMAINRichard_Nabavi said:SeanT - Yes, as I said, it looks pretty static. Around 49%/40%
ICM online has LEAVE ahead
And this latest poll shows a pretty static position compared with the last couple of ComRes polls.
But I'm sure you'll continue to get over-excited by statistical noise.0 -
We;re paying ten billion a year to be in a club with failed states like Belgium.SouthamObserver said:No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.
Game over.0 -
I think Remain will win narrowly but they are beginning to get their leaflets out so clearly Remain realise they have to get the message across, Leave have yet to put out a leaflet to me while I have had two from RemainSeanT said:
I still think REMAIN will win. I just pointed out, correctly, that all the trends are showing LEAVE gaining, and if they continue the same way, right up to June, then LEAVE wins.Anorak said:
You might be right, but you sound more than a little like a Nat in the months leading up to the Indyref.SeanT said:
Yes. On present trends LEAVE is going to win.JosiasJessop said:
The trend is surely with leave now?SeanT said:ComRes/Mail (#EURef):
#REMAIN 48 (-3)
#LEAVE 41 (+2)
Dates 18th-20th March
N=1,002
Waverers are going to break to IN, big-style.0 -
The BMA choose the nuclear option: all out strikes, including emergency cover: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-358842390
-
Which state isn't 'failed', according to your definition?taffys said:
We;re paying ten billion a year to be in a club with failed states like Belgium.SouthamObserver said:No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.
Game over.0 -
Ok we're getting the Ipsos Mori phone tomorrow now.0
-
FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.0 -
Well, ok then. Thought you were going all Mick Pork for a moment.SeanT said:
I still think REMAIN will win. I just pointed out, correctly, that all the trends are showing LEAVE gaining, and if they continue the same way, right up to June, then LEAVE wins.Anorak said:
You might be right, but you sound more than a little like a Nat in the months leading up to the Indyref.SeanT said:
Yes. On present trends LEAVE is going to win.JosiasJessop said:
The trend is surely with leave now?SeanT said:ComRes/Mail (#EURef):
#REMAIN 48 (-3)
#LEAVE 41 (+2)
Dates 18th-20th March
N=1,002
Waverers are going to break to IN, big-style.0 -
And quite possibly will pay a whopping £1.7bn less to be in a club with global titans like Norway and Liechtenstein. And Iceland.taffys said:
We;re paying ten billion a year to be in a club with failed states like Belgium.SouthamObserver said:No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.
Game over.0 -
I find this all tremendously patronising re identity politics, but interesting that this is in the Guardian
Over the past couple of months I’ve managed to shock some people by telling them I’m thinking of voting for Brexit. It seems black voters are supposed to be in favour of staying in the European Union. A report in the Times, though, suggests that’s not necessarily the case, and there are plenty of BAME votes in play if the out campaign gets its arguments straight.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/22/black-voting-brexit-out-campaign0 -
As I came top of the class for my "Advanced Typing Certificate" this was no typo error, I assure you.SimonStClare said:And today's best typo goes to, drum roll.... Lady Bucket
Put it down to my northern sense of humour, which I see you appreciated!
0 -
How many patients are they willing to see die to avoid having somebody working less than one in four Saturdays be considered as normal?JosiasJessop said:The BMA choose the nuclear option: all out strikes, including emergency cover: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239
0 -
This won't end well for the Doctors.JosiasJessop said:The BMA choose the nuclear option: all out strikes, including emergency cover: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239
0 -
I wish those wanting to defend Belgium's anti-terror policy all the very best of luck.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which state isn't 'failed', according to your definition?taffys said:
We;re paying ten billion a year to be in a club with failed states like Belgium.SouthamObserver said:No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.
Game over.0 -
45% for leave would create all sorts of twitter confusion.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.0 -
Is there anything else on twitter?Pulpstar said:
45% for leave would create all sorts of twitter confusion.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.0 -
Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.0 -
You could say the same about lots of countries, not least the UK a few years' ago. Or you could stupid things about wanting to have Free Trade Agreements with the US or, FFS, China.taffys said:I wish those wanting to defend Belgium's anti-terror policy all the very best of luck.
Really, this barmy Leaver jumping on anything bad that happens in any European country is just silly. Was the UK a 'failed state' in 2007, or the US in 2001?0 -
It will be interesting to see if we get polling and if the public support changes, as the question has always been do you support doctors action GIVEN that emergency cover is being provided.JosiasJessop said:The BMA choose the nuclear option: all out strikes, including emergency cover: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-35884239
I have no idea how the public react to the nuclear option.0 -
After having predicted Labour losses at the GE and the Tories to win most seats (but not a majority, I admit) I have decided to preserve my tipping record by staying well clear of the US elections.Pulpstar said:
Who do you have down for POTUS ?SouthamObserver said:No surprise the gap is closing. I have always expected a Leave win. They have the best lines. Immigration is an absolute killer for Remain. Just as it will prove to be for Leave post-referendum.
0 -
National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=23330 -
There's logic in that though. Keeping powder dry? Leaflets now will be in recycle long after people have quickly forgotten what's in them. Perceptions change in the last few weeks and mass leafleting at that point can build huge momentum. Besides which trends are closing the polls anyway so why bother at the moment it's only when the trend starts to shallow you then pile in and spend money on advertising and leafleting.HYUFD said:
I think Remain will win narrowly but they are beginning to get their leaflets out so clearly Remain realise they have to get the message across, Leave have yet to put out a leaflet to me while I have had two from RemainSeanT said:
I still think REMAIN will win. I just pointed out, correctly, that all the trends are showing LEAVE gaining, and if they continue the same way, right up to June, then LEAVE wins.Anorak said:
You might be right, but you sound more than a little like a Nat in the months leading up to the Indyref.SeanT said:
Yes. On present trends LEAVE is going to win.JosiasJessop said:
The trend is surely with leave now?SeanT said:ComRes/Mail (#EURef):
#REMAIN 48 (-3)
#LEAVE 41 (+2)
Dates 18th-20th March
N=1,002
Waverers are going to break to IN, big-style.
I think it's sensible to delay no one really cares right now compared to a couple of months time.0 -
Comical Dicki - 'I see no tanks'Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, as we know the online polls show a different picture. And yes, ComRes showed a better figure for Remain last year..SeanT said:
Jeezo, look at the graph. Last year REMAIN was 20 points ahead, or more. Now it's 7. And this is the poll most favourable to REMAINRichard_Nabavi said:SeanT - Yes, as I said, it looks pretty static. Around 49%/40%
ICM online has LEAVE ahead
And this latest poll shows a pretty static position compared with the last couple of ComRes polls.
But I'm sure you'll continue to get over-excited by statistical noise.0 -
Yep, that would be his legacy right there.Wanderer said:
Maybe. Nothing is worse for Cameron than losing the referendum though.Danny565 said:As I've said before, I don't think the Tory turmoil of the past week will be that much of a direct boost for "Leave" (in the sense of people thinking "Osborne gave a crap budget, therefore I'll vote Out to punish him").
However, I think one of the indirect consequences is that Cameron will have been scared out of a full-blooded "Project Fear", because he'll be too scared of really infuriating his MPs further - which helps "Leave", since "Remain" have nothing to fall back on if they're not scaring the living daylights out of everyone.0 -
Would now be the right time to put a no strike clause in doctor's contracts?0
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If the GOP had picked Kasich they would have the race in the bag, Hillary should be giving prayers of thanks they look likely to nominate TrumpJackW said:National - Quinnipiac
Trump 43 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 50 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 450 -
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 450 -
TOPPING said:
Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
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Did you get excited when the last ComRes poll showed a big jump towards Remain?watford30 said:
Comical Dicki - 'I see no tanks'Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, as we know the online polls show a different picture. And yes, ComRes showed a better figure for Remain last year..SeanT said:
Jeezo, look at the graph. Last year REMAIN was 20 points ahead, or more. Now it's 7. And this is the poll most favourable to REMAINRichard_Nabavi said:SeanT - Yes, as I said, it looks pretty static. Around 49%/40%
ICM online has LEAVE ahead
And this latest poll shows a pretty static position compared with the last couple of ComRes polls.
But I'm sure you'll continue to get over-excited by statistical noise.0 -
A party that keeps putting EU membership front and centre even after a low turnout referendum delivers a Remain verdict, however narrow, is not going to be thanked by voters. The Tories really are going to have to put this to bed whatever the result.DavidL said:FWIW Cameron seems to me to have felt a temporary need to get out of second gear this week to get his Chancellor out of some largely self-induced difficulty. When he does that he shows that he really is a different class from anyone else currently politically active. He is of course flattered by the comparison with Corbyn who is beyond useless but even so...
This is not good news for Leave. If the majority who are not very interested in politics think the "wrong" answer is going to bring down Cameron then Project Fear will have its most powerful weapon and it will be directly focussed at Tory supporters who are just beyond irritation with Brussels and its stupidity but are very anxious to keep Cameron in charge. I must confess I myself find this a dilemma.
Remain remains the favourite but it is going to be a grudging, half hearted Remain that will solve nothing in even the medium term. Probably the worst of all worlds really.0 -
But - again - the question is whether the public blame the doctors, or whether they blame ministers for provoking the doctors into it.MarkHopkins said:TOPPING said:Interesting escalation in junior doctors' tactics. Walking out, no emergency cover.
Jeremy H was sitting fairly pretty at PMQs today, wonder what is going on in his dept or if this is a surprise.
It's the nuclear option from the BMA - no emergency cover seems unreasonable from a 'caring' profession.
PBTories should've learnt by now that anger at the strike happening/continuing does not necessarily mean anger at the doctors.0 -
Utah looks to be in the mix, apparently.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those are dreadful figures for Hillary, except that the figures for Trump and Cruz are worse.JackW said:
Clinton 46 .. Trump 40
Clinton 45 .. Cruz 42
Clinton 39 .. Kasich 47
Sanders 52 .. Trump 38
Sanders 50 .. Cruz 39
Sanders 44 .. Kasich 45
Mind you Hillary distinctly underwhelmed both there and Idaho yesterday. 26 points below her polling.0 -
Snippet of info which people may be interested in (source: Labour NEC): the Boundary Commission recommendations, after various consultation processes, will be published in September 2016.0
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Nope, there are far more important things to worry about. You?Richard_Nabavi said:
Did you get excited when the last ComRes poll showed a big jump towards Remain?watford30 said:
Comical Dicki - 'I see no tanks'Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, as we know the online polls show a different picture. And yes, ComRes showed a better figure for Remain last year..SeanT said:
Jeezo, look at the graph. Last year REMAIN was 20 points ahead, or more. Now it's 7. And this is the poll most favourable to REMAINRichard_Nabavi said:SeanT - Yes, as I said, it looks pretty static. Around 49%/40%
ICM online has LEAVE ahead
And this latest poll shows a pretty static position compared with the last couple of ComRes polls.
But I'm sure you'll continue to get over-excited by statistical noise.0 -
Do you know the field work data, big Polling moment this I feelTheScreamingEagles said:Ok we're getting the Ipsos Mori phone tomorrow now.
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