politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primar
Comments
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One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.0 -
Indeed – Tis always wise to vacate the area when Miss Marple arrives in your town.richardDodd said:FU..We need to know that Mormons future travel plans
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Be nice. You always said he wasn't a rat. Don't make me upset you again Mr Eagles :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Suzanne Evans has been suspended and gone to the courts, so maybe Douglas has reratted back.Richard_Tyndall said:OT. Have I missed a bit of news somewhere?
At 11.35 on the Telegraph live politics update page there is a photo of all 140 Tory MPs who want to Leave the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/12201926/Boris-Johnson-faces-first-major-Prime-Minister-test--as-he-is-challenged-over-claims-London-will-be-better-off-outside-EU-live.html
Now I would swear that the 6th in from the right is Douglas Carswell. Has he rejoined the Tories over the last few days?0 -
The Fast Show fans will get this, but that's a real life Unlucky AlfFrancisUrquhart said:American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html0 -
Yeah, you're right, it's only on the extreme left that political parties can split into warring factions where the leader needs to have an awareness of who is on which side in case he needs a sympathetic hearing/new S of S for DWP etc etc.rottenborough said:
I think we can put John Woodcock down as "neutral but not hostile" on the list.Scott_P said:
By the way, didn't Stalin like these kinds of lists? I think he managed to keep them all in his head though.0 -
Cameron must be getting bored with all these strolls in the park..0
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How about, if Douglas Carswell rejoined the Tories, it would make him positively Churchillian.Richard_Tyndall said:
Be nice. You always said he wasn't a rat. Don't make me upset you again Mr Eagles :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Suzanne Evans has been suspended and gone to the courts, so maybe Douglas has reratted back.Richard_Tyndall said:OT. Have I missed a bit of news somewhere?
At 11.35 on the Telegraph live politics update page there is a photo of all 140 Tory MPs who want to Leave the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/12201926/Boris-Johnson-faces-first-major-Prime-Minister-test--as-he-is-challenged-over-claims-London-will-be-better-off-outside-EU-live.html
Now I would swear that the 6th in from the right is Douglas Carswell. Has he rejoined the Tories over the last few days?0 -
You see I knew you could do it. :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
How about, if Douglas Carswell rejoined the Tories, it would make him positively Churchillian.Richard_Tyndall said:
Be nice. You always said he wasn't a rat. Don't make me upset you again Mr Eagles :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Suzanne Evans has been suspended and gone to the courts, so maybe Douglas has reratted back.Richard_Tyndall said:OT. Have I missed a bit of news somewhere?
At 11.35 on the Telegraph live politics update page there is a photo of all 140 Tory MPs who want to Leave the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/12201926/Boris-Johnson-faces-first-major-Prime-Minister-test--as-he-is-challenged-over-claims-London-will-be-better-off-outside-EU-live.html
Now I would swear that the 6th in from the right is Douglas Carswell. Has he rejoined the Tories over the last few days?
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There could be a few more twists, but if you said 5 hours ago that England would win by 20 runs, the answer would have been "boring", "NID".0
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Special hour long Panorama this evening at 9pm looks interesting.
"Examining how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it, from highly organised cells, like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within communities"
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I think Carswell (and Evans perhaps) has more in common with the 140 Tory Leave MPs than he does with Farage and his cult.0
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I'm going back to cricket analogies after Richard N pointed out the snag about the foray into cigars...Polruan said:
Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.Pulpstar said:
I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)LondonBob said:The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.
Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.
Alaska 67
Hawaii 70
Washington 67 <- Most important
Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>0 -
Agree entirely. |But since those 140 MPs do not currently hold power in the Tory party that is rather a moot point.Philip_Thompson said:I think Carswell (and Evans perhaps) has more in common with the 140 Tory Leave MPs than he does with Farage and his cult.
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You get the feeling were someone like Gove became Tory leader, you'd see a lot of UKIP switchers heading back to the Tories.Philip_Thompson said:I think Carswell (and Evans perhaps) has more in common with the 140 Tory Leave MPs than he does with Farage and his cult.
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If my arithmetic is right Afghanistan are about 1 run behind where England were at this stage. But it is all about that penultimate over.0
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They held enough power to force the Prime Minister to hold this referendum against his wishes as even with the Lib Dems last Parliament the writing was on the wall that there were enough rebels to bring this to a head.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agree entirely. |But since those 140 MPs do not currently hold power in the Tory party that is rather a moot point.Philip_Thompson said:I think Carswell (and Evans perhaps) has more in common with the 140 Tory Leave MPs than he does with Farage and his cult.
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I'd have thought Suzanne Evans would be a very good leader of Ukip. Is Farage a Labour plant?0
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The bungles were highlighted last week with the arrest of Salah Abdeslam, a suspect in the Paris outrages, during a raid on an apartment in Brussels months after he’d gone to ground in a seedy quarter of the capital.
Although the Belgian national had been known to law enforcement agencies before the November outrages, he’d managed to travel across the border to France, where he bought detonators using his driving licence as proof of identity.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3505361/Lethal-failures-bungling-Belgians-Authorities-failed-prevent-atrocities-Brussels-hotbed-radical-Islamists-writes-MICHAEL-BURLEIGH.html
I thought not checking the wardrobe was bad....You just can't make this shit up...0 -
@Morris_Dancer Saw this and thought of you
Chris Blackwell
How would Greek history seem if we translated all names and terms, as happens with Native American history? https://t.co/e8EjqS0EXY0 -
It's all over now.DavidL said:If my arithmetic is right Afghanistan are about 1 run behind where England were at this stage. But it is all about that penultimate over.
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Are you sure?Philip_Thompson said:
It's all over now.DavidL said:If my arithmetic is right Afghanistan are about 1 run behind where England were at this stage. But it is all about that penultimate over.
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Lolz
Maomentum
I gather the Labour leadership has spent the morning updating the loyalty list. https://t.co/PGpdryLCMq0 -
24 from 6 deliveries on the last wicket. I sure hope so!DavidL said:
Are you sure?Philip_Thompson said:
It's all over now.DavidL said:If my arithmetic is right Afghanistan are about 1 run behind where England were at this stage. But it is all about that penultimate over.
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Is there a link to this famous list?0
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http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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"Aw....bugger...."TheScreamingEagles said:
The Fast Show fans will get this, but that's a real life Unlucky AlfFrancisUrquhart said:American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html
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Tangentially, this may help explain Trump's poor ratings with Mormons -- since Mormons commonly spend long periods abroad, they might be less impressed by Trump's scapegoating foreigners.FrancisUrquhart said:American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html0 -
The full list is on the Mirror website
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyn-allies-make-list-76117600 -
Never in doubt.
Why is PB full of England cricket fans who go all ponceyboots gaylord whenever England have a bad over?
Keep calm people.0 -
Good final over from England. Four dot balls in the final over.0
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Mike Gapes being neutral makes me start laughing every time I think about it. Christ, I wouldn't like to see him when he's hostile.Pulpstar said:
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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More likely down to (a) being a more cohesive group (b) being more dedicated at a caucus (c) being more socially conservative and (d) holding a much better opinion of Romney, who endorsed Cruz.DecrepitJohnL said:
Tangentially, this may help explain Trump's poor ratings with Mormons -- since Mormons commonly spend long periods abroad, they might be less impressed by Trump's scapegoating foreigners.FrancisUrquhart said:American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html0 -
Last night's results clarified nothing and just made more questions than answers to be perfectly frank.DecrepitJohnL said:
Tangentially, this may help explain Trump's poor ratings with Mormons -- since Mormons commonly spend long periods abroad, they might be less impressed by Trump's scapegoating foreigners.FrancisUrquhart said:American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html0 -
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I'd like to see it too, - just to find out which circle of hell Liz Kendall has been placed in.GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principleweejonnie said:One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.0 -
Because you will insist on watching the match instead of doing your duty incommunicado in the lav.TheScreamingEagles said:Never in doubt.
Why is PB full of England cricket fans who go all ponceyboots gaylord whenever England have a bad over?
Keep calm people.0 -
Fantastic effort by Shafiqullah, who I must confess of never having heard of before today.TheScreamingEagles said:Never in doubt.
Why is PB full of England cricket fans who go all ponceyboots gaylord whenever England have a bad over?
Keep calm people.
So we can't bat, bowl or field. Are we going to win this?0 -
There are obviously exceptions, but my impression is that competence increases in step with hostility to Corbyn.Pulpstar said:
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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Incidentally, nice that labourlist is living up to its name there.Pulpstar said:
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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Cricket, oh so boringTheScreamingEagles said:Never in doubt.
Why is PB full of England cricket fans who go all ponceyboots gaylord whenever England have a bad over?
Keep calm people.0 -
To be fair to Corbyn, I'm fairly certain the Tory Whips have a colour coded system for their own side.
Blue means you're an ultra loyalist and can be relied upon no matter what
Yellow means you're loyal but on a specific issue you have doubts but could be won over
Red means you're loyal but on a specific issue you have doubts but can't be won over
and Brown, for the shits like David Davis that will always vote against the Government, no matter what.0 -
I'm sure that there's no risk at all of you getting into Clinton-related trouble with cricketing analogies, as the Afghanistan batsmen ruin another maiden with a tickle around the corner.NickPalmer said:
I'm going back to cricket analogies after Richard N pointed out the snag about the foray into cigars...Polruan said:
Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.Pulpstar said:
I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)LondonBob said:The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.
Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.
Alaska 67
Hawaii 70
Washington 67 <- Most important
Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>0 -
Wes Streeting neutral? He voted for Leicester LizWanderer said:
Mike Gapes being neutral makes me start laughing every time I think about it. Christ, I wouldn't like to see him when he's hostile.Pulpstar said:
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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Well, one of the Core Group is dead.Anorak said:
There are obviously exceptions, but my impression is that competence increases in step with hostility to Corbyn.Pulpstar said:
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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Stalin began by deciding how many people there would be within each category, then generally left the dirty work of filling in the names to others.rottenborough said:
By the way, didn't Stalin like these kinds of lists? I think he managed to keep them all in his head though.Scott_P said:0 -
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The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
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I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.HYUFD said:
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principleweejonnie said:One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.0 -
Harry Cole
Tummon stays in. Labour HQ say Lasharie remains suspended https://t.co/606VfeaeJs0 -
And he remains the most competent in that column...Wanderer said:
Well, one of the Core Group is dead.Anorak said:
There are obviously exceptions, but my impression is that competence increases in step with hostility to Corbyn.Pulpstar said:
http://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/GarethoftheVale2 said:Is there a link to this famous list?
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Sanders has avoided the follow on, he is 190 runs behind though. Openers batting well for the moment.Polruan said:
I'm sure that there's no risk at all of you getting into Clinton-related trouble with cricketing analogies, as the Afghanistan batsmen ruin another maiden with a tickle around the corner.NickPalmer said:
I'm going back to cricket analogies after Richard N pointed out the snag about the foray into cigars...Polruan said:
Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.Pulpstar said:
I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)LondonBob said:The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.
Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.
Alaska 67
Hawaii 70
Washington 67 <- Most important
Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>0 -
The Jewish Chronicle Verified account
@JewishChron
Chances of Corbyn dealing with Labour antisemitism are zero says @stephenpollard in his analysis of today's #PMQs
http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/analysis/155166/chances-corbyn-dealing-labour-antisemitism-are-zero …0 -
Mr. Eagles, at least you're consistent, and gaylord ponceyboots all the time
Miss Plato, that's rather nice. I'm mildly surprised there aren't full translations like that (assuming they're aren't any. Perhaps there are?).0 -
Indeed but equally people get more Europhile the richer and more educated they areSean_F said:
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.HYUFD said:
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principleweejonnie said:One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12201878/Donald-Trump-British-Muslims-arent-reporting-terror-suspects.html
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.0 -
Careful Norman Smith will be round screaming at you.MaxPB said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12201878/Donald-Trump-British-Muslims-arent-reporting-terror-suspects.html
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.0 -
Theresa May is saying right now that Trump is wrong.MaxPB said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12201878/Donald-Trump-British-Muslims-arent-reporting-terror-suspects.html
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/netherlands/12201375/Netherlands-doesnt-have-enough-criminals-to-fill-its-prisons-as-crime-to-drop.html
The bit that got me...everything is done in English. So beware if you are a criminal in Norway or Belgium, make sure your English is up to scratch !!! So not only do you get banged up in another country, you have to speak another language too.0 -
Is there an appeal process for Labour MPs who think they've been misclassified? For example, if you think you've been mis-categorised as 'Neutral But Not Hostile', are you allowed to apply for promotion to 'Core Group Negative'?0
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She isn't still trying to push the bollocks about if we leave the EU all intelligence sharing will be stopped...taffys said:
Theresa May is saying right now that Trump is wrong.MaxPB said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12201878/Donald-Trump-British-Muslims-arent-reporting-terror-suspects.html
Trump once again saying it how it is. Every single person who knew that Abdelsalam was hiding out in Brussels and knew his location needs to be rounded up and put away for a long time. They are as guilty as him for the atrocities committed yesterday. It's heartening to see that the Met are reporting an increase in the use of the terror hotline, but the polling still shows there are too many Muslims unwilling to speak out against criminal and terrorist acts planned by other Muslims.0 -
Meanwhile, South Yorkshire Police receives a review [concisely, they ignored claims of children being abused]:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-35873469
Also, the BBC piece refers only to female victims. From reports at the time, a third of the victims were boys.0 -
. Apologists for Islamist terrorism insist it is a response to Western foreign policy, yet have no explanation for why, if that were the case, the terrorists target 20-year-olds at a rock gig rather than ministers of defence.
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/after-brussels-how-to-hit-the-terrorists-where-it-hurts/18174#.VvKXFrOnxTc
Or they say this terrorism is an expression of fury with Europe’s alleged mistreatment of Muslims, yet cannot explain why other groups that face prejudice — black Africans, Kurdish migrants, Jews — don’t also go to their nearest airport and blow it up.0 -
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.0 -
The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.0
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£12bn is possible, if we decide not to replace the EU spending in the UK. The realistic number is closer to £5-6bn.TOPPING said:
It will be disinformation and fear on both sides. John Redwood the other day said on the radio that we would have £12bn extra if we left, when even Civitas, in their pro-Brexit paper last year, put it at £1bn.weejonnie said:
Shooting of ammo before they know the target. And Vote Leave can reply - the last speech is the most important.HYUFD said:
At least BSE are getting their leaflets outTOPPING said:FPT
Received a BSE leaflet through the door, looked like one from a pizza place, all primary colours, telling me how jobs, wealth, you name it would be better/increased/etc by staying in. Totally b**sh*t stats no doubt.
Pathetic.
If that is the level of debate god help us. Then again, goodness only knows what the Leave one will look like; presumably edged in black.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, only got 1.43 into it before I had to stop (at the word 'inflammatory'). Norman Smith is a damned fool.0
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Not only funny but 17 mps were missed from the list. You couldn't make this stuff upRochdalePioneers said:The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
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Kinda. See my post at 1pmRochdalePioneers said:The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
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Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Also an hour or so ago I posted on here a link to this article.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/03/andrew-lilico-unless-remain-wins-big-the-future-of-its-conservative-supporters-in-government-looks-doomed.html0 -
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/after-brussels-how-to-hit-the-terrorists-where-it-hurts/18174#.VvKXFrOnxTcPlato_Says said:. Apologists for Islamist terrorism insist it is a response to Western foreign policy, yet have no explanation for why, if that were the case, the terrorists target 20-year-olds at a rock gig rather than ministers of defence.
Or they say this terrorism is an expression of fury with Europe’s alleged mistreatment of Muslims, yet cannot explain why other groups that face prejudice — black Africans, Kurdish migrants (*),, Jews — don’t also go to their nearest airport and blow it up.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/19/istanbul-hit-by-deadly-bomb-attack
(*)Last Sunday suicide bombers killed 37 people at a bus stop in the Turkish capital, Ankara. The militant Kurdistan freedom falcons (Tak) claimed responsibility for the attack.
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ContinuityIDS is not a neutral or scientific source.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Also an hour or so ago I posted on here a link to this article.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/03/andrew-lilico-unless-remain-wins-big-the-future-of-its-conservative-supporters-in-government-looks-doomed.html0 -
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.0 -
I don't agree with Farage on lots of things, but he has highlighted that there could possibly be a tiny bit of a problem with a) arms being shipped across the EU and b) letting in millions of people to the EU area with no idea who they are and then left free to move around and c) that it is total nonsense that Out of the EU would mean no intelligence sharing. But Norman Smith can't jump down his throat fast enough.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, only got 1.43 into it before I had to stop (at the word 'inflammatory'). Norman Smith is a damned fool.
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@corbynjokes @corbynjokesRichard_Nabavi said:Is there an appeal process for Labour MPs who think they've been misclassified? For example, if you think you've been mis-categorised as 'Neutral But Not Hostile', are you allowed to apply for promotion to 'Core Group Negative'?
I'm not saying my mother-in-law doesn't like me, but I've moved her from "core group negative" to "hostile".0 -
@TSE and @Big_G_NorthWales the joy of poliics/The Thick of It is when real life politics happens like a script for The Think of It.0
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Conservative home is not an unbiased source - it may be correct but 2 in 3 seems high to meTCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
Also an hour or so ago I posted on here a link to this article.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/03/andrew-lilico-unless-remain-wins-big-the-future-of-its-conservative-supporters-in-government-looks-doomed.html0 -
Leaving it in a HoC bar is the corker.RochdalePioneers said:
The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
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I would have thought the list would be split into "not twats" and "twats".TheScreamingEagles said:
Kinda. See my post at 1pmRochdalePioneers said:The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
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OK I concede that it is in the most recent survey a bigger lead than 2 for LEAVE for every 1 member wanting to REMAIN....JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/58-per-cent-of-party-members-tell-our-survey-that-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html0 -
I'm just disappointed the groups didn't include "Red Tories" and "Actual Tories".RochdalePioneers said:The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
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Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.0 -
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a wholePulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.0 -
Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist.I
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I only found out today, that the Belgium security forces are so friggin useless, that it is actually the French SAS doing a lot of the work. Not sure it is covering the French SAS is much glory either.Moses_ said:Latest news on the 3rd bomber non arrest.
Belgian security forces did actually look in the right cupboard this time but mistook the milkman for an IS terrorist.I
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Core Group Negative is also a great name for a band.0
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Not just with the Conservatives, it's happening in spades with the GOP and DEM races in the US, also see below on my terrorism post.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a wholePulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.0 -
I expect the strong link with age is partly because there is an element within anti-EU sentiment of hankering for a lost (or imagined) past (Britain and its Empire bestriding the world, etc.) - which is a psychological condition that comes upon us all to some extent as we go through middle age - and partly because the opportunities to work, live and study throughout the EU are (with the small exception of retirees to foreign villas) more relevant to young people.HYUFD said:
Indeed but equally people get more Europhile the richer and more educated they areSean_F said:
I'm not sure of the reason, but it's clear that people get more Eurosceptic as they age. Peter Kellner says that polling from the 1960s onwards shows young people far more enthusiastic about the EU than older voters. But, the young people who were enthusiastic in the past, are now the middle aged and elderly voters who want to Leave.HYUFD said:
What about all the anti EU rhetoric from the tabloids and most young people are more likely to have friends from other EU nations and be more attracted to the free movement principleweejonnie said:One point in favour of leave: The over 35s have some experience of life and many years of EU failures. The under 35s are only now discovering that there are other opinions and facts.
I would hazard that the leavers will stick, but some remainers are having their eyes opened after all the years of pro-EU rhetoric.
Also, in the Ryanair era, the young have more experience of travelling within other European cultures than do older people (excepting the dual-holiday brigade who are the 'richer and more educated' more pro-EU folks mentioned above).
Further, younger people have grown up in a Britain that is multi-cultural and international, with their experience of 'nationalism' conjuring up negative connotations of political extremism to weigh against the positive ones from patriotism. The older you are, the more likely the reverse is true, because of a youth lived through war (or more likely nowadays in the decades afterwards that were culturally within its shadow), when nationalism - in Britain at least (!) - was a 'good thing' and other countries, not so much.0 -
Have Buzzfeed done a "Are you Core Group Negative?" quiz yet?0
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And the Jewish Chronicle hasn't been slow to spot where Jewish MPs have been listed......Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not only funny but 17 mps were missed from the list. You couldn't make this stuff upRochdalePioneers said:The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
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The point (as you well know) is that relying on an Internet poll, yet alone a ConHome one, in this manner is ridiculous. Any Internet survey where people have to self-certify whether they are party members is absolutely rife to be gamed.TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK I concede that it is in the most recent survey a bigger lead than 2 for LEAVE for every 1 member wanting to REMAIN....JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/58-per-cent-of-party-members-tell-our-survey-that-they-will-vote-to-leave-the-eu.html
The Yougov one is possibly more accurate, but with the same sort of problems (I guess - YouGov cannot know whether respondents are members or not?)0 -
It's the authentically illiterate 'Neutral But Not Hostile' heading which convinces me this list is genuine.0
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Are you saying they're Core Group Negative so we should ignore them?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a wholePulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.0 -
Too close to Type O-Negative...Freggles said:Core Group Negative is also a great name for a band.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFwYJYl5GUQ0 -
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
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Yougov found similar figures please see my post below.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Conservative home is a brexit site and any survey produced by it will result in a heavily pro exit result. However it does not represent the membership as a wholePulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
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CarlottaVance said:
And the Jewish Chronicle hasn't been slow to spot where Jewish MPs have been listed......Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not only funny but 17 mps were missed from the list. You couldn't make this stuff upRochdalePioneers said:The list. Do the Tories have a similar list? Undoubtedly. Is airing our list in public very very funny? Absolutely.
Hang on, that makes no sense. You can't say someone in Labour is being anti-semitic by assessing which MPs don't like the current leadership and including the Jewish MPs in that group. I mean you might conclude that those MPs don't like the leadership because they perceive it as anti-semitic, but that's a different point.0 -
Surely that has the same problem of self-certification?TCPoliticalBetting said:
OK all you doubters that queried the surveys of Conservative members being 2 for LEAVE for every 1 for REMAIN.............Pulpstar said:
Facts unfortunately do often get in the way of a good narrative.JosiasJessop said:
But those sources sadly don't match your repeated claim.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Been listed on here a few times. There was a piece of outside research (possibly Yougov) and also several Conservative Home surveys this year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Do you have evidence of thatTCPoliticalBetting said:
The next Leader will be from LEAVE. Two in 3 members (or more) are for LEAVE.HYUFD said:
Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU refRichard_Nabavi said:Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.
Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.
"The reason for Johnson's lead can be answered by another question YouGov asked in the same poll — do Tory members want to leave the EU? 59% said they were planning to vote for a Brexit in the June 23 referendum, while only 31% will be voting to remain."
Now if you will not respect Conservative Home surveys that have found similar levels of preference, maybe you will accept Yougov? Josias, BG Northwales etc etc
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-boris-to-be-next-tory-leader-2016-3
Over to you, TCPB.
(If you were honest, you would ignore the ConHome 'surveys' and go to the YouGov directly, which is at least professionally done).0