politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q: Is there a free trade agreement that gives full access to financial services?

Johnsons says he is not aware of one.

Tyrie says he thinks the answer is no.

Johnson concedes there is no precedent for a country having a free trade deal with the EU giving full access to financial services.

Boris drowning ?

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver said:

surbiton said:

Wanderer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Polruan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Polruan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Polruan said:

SouthamObserver said:

They are superb social documents and give a real insight into the "liberal" thinking of that period. They probably are racist, but so what? Dickens is profoundly anti-Semitic, as was Hemingway (who was also a racist). They were of their time. And that fact does not diminish their greatness.

A bit like Corbyn and McDonnell....?

Actually I think McDonnell could manage it.

Hmmm. I am not sure that British voters will flock to support a party led by a man who openly and vociferously advocated support for an organisation whose aim was to force British citizens by bullet and bomb into a foreign country against their wishes.

Depends how you play it, doesn't it? "Different times, different places but I got it wrong and have apologised for that. But look at my opponents who are still endangering British people by their support for (insert unsavoury ISIS enabling regime of your choice here) and haven't apologised. That's the risk to the nation's security today."

Obviously he'd need to be happy to apologise. Might be a challenge.

Yep, that's true. A full and believable apology might change things. And that is McDonnell's problem.

I don't think anything can nullify the IRA-hugging in McDonnell's past. I get the impression that he has discovered that, now he is on the front bench, he is ambitious for office and that if he could he would go back in time and stop himself saying that stuff. But he can't and is permanently and fatally damaged by it.

Would that be Martin McGuinnes who had lunch [ luncheon ? ] with the Queen ? Was he invited to Buck House ?

Every time the IRA connection is brought up, the reply will be you mean McGuinnes who had lunch with the Queen and Adams who had lunch with Bonnie Prince Charlie.

Martin McGuinness will never lead the Labour party or seek to be the PM of the UK.

If they are all murdering thugs, the Queen, surely, should not have invited one of them, right ?

Not when they were murdering, which is a non-trivial difference......

Polruan said:

Wanderer said:

surbiton said:

Would that be Martin McGuinnes who had lunch [ luncheon ? ] with the Queen ? Was he invited to Buck House ?

Every time the IRA connection is brought up, the reply will be you mean McGuinnes who had lunch with the Queen and Adams who had lunch with Bonnie Prince Charlie.

Do you think going on about how the shadow chancellor or leader of the Labour Party is just like Martin McGuinness is your best strategy?

Maybe something about how times move on, and there can be peace and reconciliation... just look how certain Tories sequentially campaigned for Mandela's execution and beatification.

Alternatively just find people that don't have the IRA baggage.

Feck (hope it is just a precaution)

Passengers being asked to evacuate Kings Cross tube #London due to 'reported emergency'.

Polruan said:

Pulpstar said:

LondonBob said:

The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.

Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.

I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)

Alaska 67
Hawaii 70
Washington 67 <- Most important

Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>

Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.

Sanders should beat his target in DC.

He needs to beat 0.3%

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/712604805387182081

Polruan said:

Pulpstar said:

LondonBob said:

The only two counties in AZ that Cruz ran Trump close were Navajo and Graham which are Mormon areas, 20% and 25% respectively. In SoCal and NM only Catron County in NM has a significant Mormon population at 20%, so the AZ result reads even better for Trump. The other good news for Trump is there is a mere scattering of Mormons in Montana and Washington, and negligible elsewhere.

Sanders did do very well, HRC stumbles on, ever reliant on the superdelegates.

I've posted targets for Sanders and Hillary on my profile (For HRC to win WITHOUT superdelegates)

Alaska 67
Hawaii 70
Washington 67 <- Most important

Sanders needs to beat in the next lot.</p>

Thanks, that's very useful. Good material for me and @nickpalmer to get to work on a more nuanced cricketing analogy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/112R0zDRQLC2cxE1op0TY-IBq_PTtcxpwgfbu87DI45w/edit?usp=sharing <- My Democrat spreadsheet.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q: Is there a free trade agreement that gives full access to financial services?

Johnsons says he is not aware of one.

Tyrie says he thinks the answer is no.

Johnson concedes there is no precedent for a country having a free trade deal with the EU giving full access to financial services.

Boris drowning ?

John Mann got Boris on the ropes - He is all bluster and not having a good day at the Office

NickPalmer said:

... I think he does have a chance if something dreadful happened to Hillary's campaign between now and then, as he's certainly done respectably, but otherwise it will be close but no cigar. ...

Not the happiest choice of metaphor given the history!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Q: Is there a free trade agreement that gives full access to financial services?

Johnsons says he is not aware of one.

Tyrie says he thinks the answer is no.

Johnson concedes there is no precedent for a country having a free trade deal with the EU giving full access to financial services.

Boris drowning ?

John Mann got Boris on the ropes - He is all bluster and not having a good day at the Office

Any Boris for PM?

Still?

Has Hopi Sen put his piece up on here yet? It's absolutely jaw-dropping, and I'd imagine Labour will need a new Minister for Trade Unions soon enough.

https://storify.com/hopisen/defending-good-unions-doesn-t-mean-protecting-bad-

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage really is a [moderated] trying to ruin UKIP and Leave

Guido understands there a plans afoot in UKIP to suspend Suzanne Evans from the party. The party scheduled a disciplinary meeting this morning to discuss whether to take action against Evans over a series of claims involving alleged breaches of party rules.

Court documents show that Evans is filing an application to the High Court at midday today to attempt to postpone any disciplinary action until after the GLA nominations are closed on March 31. In the explosive court documents, Suzanne writes that Nigel Farage is trying to force her out:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/23/suzanne-evans-v-ukip-in-high-court-today/

Is it just possible that Farage wants leave to lose, even probable

Given how shite he is at becoming an MP, you can understand why Farage would prefer to retain an MEP's salary and attendant allowances and not give that up

Tissue_Price said:

Has Hopi Sen put his piece up on here yet? It's absolutely jaw-dropping, and I'd imagine Labour will need a new Minister for Trade Unions soon enough.

https://storify.com/hopisen/defending-good-unions-doesn-t-mean-protecting-bad-

Crikey.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farage really is a [moderated] trying to ruin UKIP and Leave

Guido understands there a plans afoot in UKIP to suspend Suzanne Evans from the party. The party scheduled a disciplinary meeting this morning to discuss whether to take action against Evans over a series of claims involving alleged breaches of party rules.

Court documents show that Evans is filing an application to the High Court at midday today to attempt to postpone any disciplinary action until after the GLA nominations are closed on March 31. In the explosive court documents, Suzanne writes that Nigel Farage is trying to force her out:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/23/suzanne-evans-v-ukip-in-high-court-today/

FFS. Farage needs to be pushed off a cliff somewhere by the UKIP members, Neil Hamilton as well. Put Suzanne in charge afterwards, she is the only reasonable UKIP speaker.

Hope that's the start of a trend

chestnut said:

ICM - Leave SEVENTEEN points ahead among 35+.

The left appear to be drifting to Leave. LD and Lab starting to show 30-40%.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.

Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.

Which is why I think Leave will try and convince Dave to stay on with chancellor Gove and foreign sec Boris in his team if Leave wins (or Remain for Gove tbh).

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.

Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.

Given historically the Tories pick the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary in power Philip Hammond is a good bet if Osborne is done for and Remain narrowly win EU ref

Anorak said:

Don't know why the nervous nellies were worried about the cricket. Practically in the bag. *cough*

Dropped catch...followed by a 6...arrhhhh...

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris needs, above all, to impress Tory MPs if he's to get the PM gig. As things stand, I don't think he'll be on the final ballot - MPs have never been totally convinced that he's a sufficiently serious figure to be leader and PM, and he doesn't seem to be performing in a way which would allay those doubts.

Given that Osborne is not looking good either, get your money on Mrs May.

Which is why I think Leave will try and convince Dave to stay on with chancellor Gove and foreign sec Boris in his team if Leave wins (or Remain for Gove tbh).

Yep, when Dave fights that snap election after a Leave vote, that'll be his shadow team providing he can reconcile his stubborn loyalty to Osborne with those appointments. Maybe Osborne to Chairman in order to give his role as "master" "strategist" full rein.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/712607133221724160

I've totally gone off Farage in the last year.

Just what on earth is his problem?

Tissue_Price said:

Has Hopi Sen put his piece up on here yet? It's absolutely jaw-dropping, and I'd imagine Labour will need a new Minister for Trade Unions soon enough.

https://storify.com/hopisen/defending-good-unions-doesn-t-mean-protecting-bad-

Wow. Just wow.

@gabyhinsliff: This is clearly the most fun Tory MPs have had at #PMQs for ages. Despite everything.

chestnut said:

ICM - Leave SEVENTEEN points ahead among 35+.

The left appear to be drifting to Leave. LD and Lab starting to show 30-40%.

Anecdotally that's what my experiences tell me: Tory eurosceptics going wobbly (sort yourselves out, gentlemen) but Left wingers being unimpressed by arguments to Remain purely based on what's convenient for the City and the banks.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Once I can find my debit card, I'm sticking a lot of money on Theresa May as next Tory leader and laying Boris like one of his mistresses

Lay Boris and Osborne.

I agree with all the above

chestnut said:

ICM - Leave SEVENTEEN points ahead among 35+.

The left appear to be drifting to Leave. LD and Lab starting to show 30-40%.

AB voters back Remain though 50-37 while DE voters back Leave 52-31. Tories back Leave 46 to 40% so Cameron needs to close that gap.

The South and Scotland back Remain, Wales, the North and Midlands back Leave

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/712614388306456576

Suspected Brussels bomber Najim Laachraoui is still on the run after his bomb - containing the biggest charge at the airport - failed to explode, Belgian prosecutor Frederick Van Leeuw says.

Oh wow, it could have been a lot lot worse...

Corbyn still managing to impress people on how unimpressive he is....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZnKob6XBqg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/712607133221724160

I've totally gone off Farage in the last year.

Just what on earth is his problem?

Ego.

UKIP is a cult (sic) of Leadership

I think that you do need an ego the size of a planet, to spend years building up a political party from nowhere. The problem is that it prevents you from working with other people who are capable.

It annoys me beyond measure, the way that Farage (and some other politicians) do their damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/712607133221724160

I've totally gone off Farage in the last year.

Just what on earth is his problem?

Ego.

UKIP is a cult (sic) of Leadership

I think that you do need an ego the size of a planet, to spend years building up a political party from nowhere. The problem is that it prevents you from working with other people who are capable.

It annoys me beyond measure, the way that Farage (and some other politicians) do their damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Someone recently compared Farage to Moses.

He led the Eurosceptic movement for decades, but it was someone else who has to lead them to the promised land.

He just can't accept that.

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Well that wasn't the way you'd have thought PMQs would go last Friday night. An absolute rout.

I'd have predicted a fairly comfortable victory for Dave based off of Monday

Fundamentally, Dave isn't too bad at PMQs, although nowhere near TB's standard. Corbyn is utterly hopeless at it and any other parliamentary appearance.

As I keep saying, time for a leadership challenge in the summer, despite what Nick P's focus group is telling him.

Not able to watch PMQs live today, but if Corbyn flunked it again, it's surely going to be curtains for him soon?

Could be leadership elections for both the big two this year!

Eng and Afghanistan are neck and neck on the "worm". Not over yet.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/712617296359985152

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/712617296359985152

The internet never forgets....

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eng and Afghanistan are neck and neck on the "worm". Not over yet.

The penultimate over of the English innings will prove decisive but blimey, that has been hard work.

@youngvulgarian: hey @LadPolitics can I have odds on Woodcock just fucking losing it and lunging at Corbyn before the end of PMQs

Lucky incident for England...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Eng and Afghanistan are neck and neck on the "worm". Not over yet.

It is now.

American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/712607133221724160

I've totally gone off Farage in the last year.

Just what on earth is his problem?

Ego.

UKIP is a cult (sic) of Leadership

I think that you do need an ego the size of a planet, to spend years building up a political party from nowhere. The problem is that it prevents you from working with other people who are capable.

It annoys me beyond measure, the way that Farage (and some other politicians) do their damnedest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Is he snatching defeat though. It is not that great of a conspiracy theory to suggest that Farage is OK with losing the referendum.

As you said he has spent years building up a political party, the question is whether his ultimate ambition is to build up that party (and his career) or to leave the EU because the two are mutually exclusive. The party and his career effectively die with a Leave vote.

If we're in the EU then the European Parliament's Proportional Representation voting system gives Farage a job for life.
If we're out of the EU then England's two party system has time and again prevented UKIP and Farage from making any breakthrough.

Leaving the EU doesn't just destroy UKIP's very reason for existence but leaving PR Europe and having just FPTP Westminster left is the total death of UKIP. This may not have been the case had Farage and UKIP made a real breakthrough in Westminster already but they haven't so Farage faces both redundancy and the death of his party if he "wins" the referendum" and a six-figure salary and the continuation of the party he helped build if he "loses".

No wonder Farage seems more interested in his party than actually winning a leave vote.

FrancisUrquhart said:

American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html

I want his itinerary for the next decade please. In fact we all do.

JackW said:

Casino_Royale said:

I would welcome the defection of Suzanne Evans onto the sensible Brexit wing of the Conservative Party.

She would make an excellent MP.

It rather begs the question what is the point of UKIP, unless it simply remains a Farage cult?

If sensible Kippers realise that the Conservative Party is their best chance of getting UK independence, then they will organise themselves accordingly until UKIP becomes a rump.

However, the Conservatives won't *necessarily* be socially conservative, so, in the medium-long term, I think there will always be a role for such a party in UK politics of some size.

OT. Have I missed a bit of news somewhere?

At 11.35 on the Telegraph live politics update page there is a photo of all 140 Tory MPs who want to Leave the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/12201926/Boris-Johnson-faces-first-major-Prime-Minister-test--as-he-is-challenged-over-claims-London-will-be-better-off-outside-EU-live.html

Now I would swear that the 6th in from the right is Douglas Carswell. Has he rejoined the Tories over the last few days?

The old bowl a total pie and get a wicket routine appears to have finally won it for England.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

American Mormon, 19, left with burns and shrapnel injuries in Brussels attack also survived Boston and Paris bombings

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3505243/It-s-blessing-God-s-alive-American-Mormon-injured-brush-terrorism-Brussels-surviving-Boston-bombing-Paris-attacks.html

I want his itinerary for the next decade please. In fact we all do.

He's heading next to Dundee to protect the maidens !!

FrancisUrquhart said:

The old bowl a total pie and get a wicket routine appears to have finally won it for England.

Cricinfo description made me chuckle:
Stokes to Samiullah Shenwari, OUT, possibly one of the worst balls ever bowled, miles wide of off, short, slow - complete and utter filth - but Shinwari's attempt to smack it over cover merely skies it straight to Root at extra-cover.