politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits
Comments
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Frank Field likes Crabb. Sky now0
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As the middle-class rise in China they will want freedom as well as money if they do not the Chinese leadership may get revolution instead of representative democracyInnocent_Abroad said:
So the Chinese leadership is right about representative democracy...tyson said:Great tweet I read today- 2020 election- the unelectable 1983 Labour Party versus the unelectable 1997 Tory Party. Throw in the 1945 Liberal party and you get the set- that's my bit.
The thing is now with the Tories is that now they are genuinely messed up. And politics, like football management, it just gets uglier and more horrible. It did with Labour in the Brown years. It did with Major.
Cameron was the Tory's best hope of keeping this wholly unmanageable, cutthroat, back stabbing, ideologically divided party on the straight and narrow. And now, I think he's fatally wounded, Osborne is the dead parrot, and the others May and Johnson, well they just don't bear thinking about.0 -
Hes being attacked because he got IDS to agree to cutting the welfare of disabled people as it was necessary for deficit reduction, then turned round and used it to handout tax cuts to the wealthy. Just as he did in the first Omnishambles budget. He never learns.perdix said:
Osborne is being attacked by his own side and in the press because he is a "Remainer". That was ultimately the cause of IDS's frustration. However, Osborne needs to be more circumspect in his dealings.SouthamObserver said:We may all be reading too much into IDS's resignation:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/welfare/2016/03/think-iain-duncan-smiths-resignation-masterstroke-sadly-hes-not-clever
Perhaps Cameron and Osborne would have more loyalty if they didn't treat cabinet ministers they disagreed with like crap. Their arrogance has come back to haunt them.0 -
Mr. HYUFD, maybe. If prosperity continues in China it may well continue as is (there will be bumps, of course).
China's history is summed up by a Han era saying: the empire, long divided, must unite. The empire, long united, must divide.0 -
General Boles
I'm not saying #ScotLab16 is sparsely attended but Marco Rubio just sent them a condolence muffin basket0 -
I could never for a Tory leader that doesn't support equal rights for gay people.0
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And then gifted the country to New Labour!HYUFD said:
John Major won a general election after 13 years of Tory governmentTCPoliticalBetting said:
He has some thing of John Major about him. Not a positive.Casino_Royale said:
I've done a rapid about turn since yesterday evening when I poo-poo'ed him below 50/1 (my oh my, how politics can change) and just backed him at 33/1 with Bet365.Plato_Says said:An interview with Stephen Crabb, the new Work & Pensions Secretary https://t.co/oJpguxVjhb by @isabelhardman
Having read a bit more about him, and watched a couple of youtube videos of his speeches this morning, he has the X-factor.
He needs (a) a shave and (b) to find an answer to the handicap of his strong pro-Remain credentials, and relaxed attitude on immigration
If he do those, and impresses in office now he's SoS, he could go far.0 -
Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.0
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Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.0
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With the largest number of voters ever.HYUFD said:
John Major won a general election after 13 years of Tory governmentTCPoliticalBetting said:
He has some thing of John Major about him. Not a positive.Casino_Royale said:
I've done a rapid about turn since yesterday evening when I poo-poo'ed him below 50/1 (my oh my, how politics can change) and just backed him at 33/1 with Bet365.Plato_Says said:An interview with Stephen Crabb, the new Work & Pensions Secretary https://t.co/oJpguxVjhb by @isabelhardman
Having read a bit more about him, and watched a couple of youtube videos of his speeches this morning, he has the X-factor.
He needs (a) a shave and (b) to find an answer to the handicap of his strong pro-Remain credentials, and relaxed attitude on immigration
If he do those, and impresses in office now he's SoS, he could go far.0 -
Tom Harris
Applied at the last minute for a pass to today's @ScottishLabour conference but was told it was "full up". True story.0 -
F1: just checking the calendar. Races are every fortnight until June (traditionally, the first quartet have been a fly-away group set apart by a slightly longer break). Then there's just a week between Canada and Azerbaijan, which aren't exactly next door.
Incidentally, Channel 4 qualifying highlights are from 12.30pm. I'll try and catch the end to see what people say about the new format.0 -
He may not be there long, as there will be another reshuffle after EU vote.volcanopete said:A little money so far for Crabbe in the next Tory leader market,although he is still generally available at 25-1.
Having worked for them,the DWP is the graveyard of all ambition where all social mobility is downwards.No bet.0 -
What's the reception?RochdalePioneers said:
Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
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Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these days0 -
Brave. Not a fruitful area for Remain.RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
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Then he is a fool.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
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When people stop and talk its brief. Polite conversations end in "no". Less polite in "off". Its all about migration and in my opinion the In campaign have no answers to very genuine concerns that working people have. I posted on Facebook on New Years Day that (a) Boris would be the face of OUT (b) Out wins and (c) Boris becomes PM. I'm confident that b and c will happen as a already has.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
An interesting time. We're heading for the unholy trinity of Prime Minister Johnson and Presidents Trump and Le Pen.0 -
Always useful to hear from people on the ground, especially when out of the country it's difficult to get the mood just from watching TV and reading PB. Thanks for the update.RochdalePioneers said:
When people stop and talk its brief. Polite conversations end in "no". Less polite in "off". Its all about migration and in my opinion the In campaign have no answers to very genuine concerns that working people have. I posted on Facebook on New Years Day that (a) Boris would be the face of OUT (b) Out wins and (c) Boris becomes PM. I'm confident that b and c will happen as a already has.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
An interesting time. We're heading for the unholy trinity of Prime Minister Johnson and Presidents Trump and Le Pen.0 -
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
That is what is known as a first world perspective. Sitting here in the third world I can assure you plenty of CRT type TVs are still in use. Stuff gets used and lovingly cared for until it eventually dies because people can't afford to replace it. Plenty of people still using VHS video recorders as well. I imagine the same is true in Senegal.0 -
Mr. Llama, a politer than expected four letter description of Cameron
Mr. Pioneers, I'm still not convinced Out has a significant chance of winning. Disgruntled many are, but that's not the same as voting to leave come the day. Not sure I can see Boris as PM, but it's more credible than it was.0 -
Southam- it matters to you. To cement the Norther Irish agreement NI went to McGuiness and Paisley who became friends. Politics is full of figures who reinvent themselves, often for good.
Most people accept the past is the past.
Labour needs someone who can reach out to both sides of the party- the PLP and the membership. Corbyn has neither the intelligence, the insight, or the will to do this. The membership will not accept a figure foisted on them by the PLP.
I am sure McDonnell would not have spent his political capital on a defence review, or talking about the Falklands.
McDonnell is charming, and his narrative about the economy resonates.
So, we need a figure from the left who can unite the party with it's moderate MP's.SouthamObserver said:
McDonnell is certainly more politically astute than Corbyn and more pragmatic economically. But that is not a huge leap forward. What he has said and done in the past matters. It's the only way to judge him. And he openly supported an organisation that wanted to murder and maim British citizens into becoming part of another country. That is just not acceptable in my book. There have to be red lines.tyson said:OK McDonnell has a past. But it is what he does now that is important. Could he create a shadow cabinet and bring in people like Yvette, Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Starmer? Would he treat the PLP with more respect?
McDonnell has a lefty, economic discourse that is really quite compelling. So far, I have yet to see any of the Labour moderates come up with any idea of any note except the "I am not a Tory line."SouthamObserver said:@Tyson - McDonnell is presentable. Then you look at what he has said and done over the years, and you quickly realise he is deeply unpleasant.
I hear plenty of things from Labour moderates. It's just most Labour members do not agree with them. I like what people such as Dan Jarvis say, but I am in a minority - or would be if I were a Labour member.0 -
The contrast with the wards canvassed by Nick in London are stark. He met 2 Leavers out of 100 doorknocksRochdalePioneers said:
When people stop and talk its brief. Polite conversations end in "no". Less polite in "off". Its all about migration and in my opinion the In campaign have no answers to very genuine concerns that working people have. I posted on Facebook on New Years Day that (a) Boris would be the face of OUT (b) Out wins and (c) Boris becomes PM. I'm confident that b and c will happen as a already has.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
An interesting time. We're heading for the unholy trinity of Prime Minister Johnson and Presidents Trump and Le Pen.0 -
In other words, the replacement of class by identity (mainly, but not wholly, race) as the main source of political cleavage. There's no evidence whatsoever that representative democracy can handle this, and some historic indications that it can't.RochdalePioneers said:
When people stop and talk its brief. Polite conversations end in "no". Less polite in "off". Its all about migration and in my opinion the In campaign have no answers to very genuine concerns that working people have. I posted on Facebook on New Years Day that (a) Boris would be the face of OUT (b) Out wins and (c) Boris becomes PM. I'm confident that b and c will happen as a already has.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
An interesting time. We're heading for the unholy trinity of Prime Minister Johnson and Presidents Trump and Le Pen.
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Would Celtic Park be an option? *Ducks*RobD said:
Meanwhile Scottish Tories won't be holding a conference as there just isn't a venue big enough in the whole of Scotland.malcolmg said:
Labour conference today in the IMAX, capacity 370 and it is not even filled, how low can they go.ThreeQuidder said:
If Scotland last year didn't kill off the idea of the "safe seat", what will?foxinsoxuk said:
Have you considered the Womens Equality Party?TwistedFireStopper said:
I know. Is there an East Midlands SNP branch?foxinsoxuk said:
The Green party isn't doing very well either...TwistedFireStopper said:
Ah, I've got you there, young Jack. I never voted for them, I voted Green, so I feel pure enough to be able to carp from the sidelines.JackW said:
The "piss poor" electorate vote for them ....TwistedFireStopper said:Hahaha haha haha!
Conservatives-fecked.
Labour-fecked.
Lib Dems-really fecked.
UKIP-fecked.
How did we end up with such piss poor politicians?
In Leics every seat now seems to be safe for one party or the other (7:3 Con over Lab) with no one else getting a serious look in, so it doesn't really matter who you vote for. In a way it is quite liberating.
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I think the word that best describes Osborne is insouciant and it will be his insouciance that is the main barrier to his advancement.He isn't capable of changing this essential flaw either.He repeats mistakes and doesn't learn from them.
I,and others,have been urging a lay on Osborne for months,especially as he reached an unbelievable 5-4 fav.He's currently out to 4-1 2nd fav and it may not be that long before he's out of the 1st two.The last couple of days has also confirmed the right wing press don't want him either.
Insousiance will secure his downfall.0 -
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
Probably just to show that they are modern devices, not just cast-offs.
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I think the next Labour leader battle, sometime between 2018 and 2021 will be between McDonnell, Nandy, Benn and maybe Jarvis. Nandy to win is my finger in the air guess at this point. If not Nandy, McDonnell - definitely not Jarvis or Benn.0
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I see the headbangers think they are losing then.0
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I bought my smartphone last year. My friends laughed at my ten years old Nokia.
That is what is known as a first world perspective. Sitting here in the third world I can assure you plenty of CRT type TVs are still in use. Stuff gets used and lovingly cared for until it eventually dies because people can't afford to replace it. Plenty of people still using VHS video recorders as well. I imagine the same is true in Senegal.Indigo said:
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
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NorfolkTilIDie said:
Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
Or he just went for who he thought would do the best job. Patel hasn't been that impressive at DWP.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
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I agree with all that.Pulpstar said:I think the next Labour leader battle, sometime between 2018 and 2021 will be between McDonnell, Nandy, Benn and maybe Jarvis. Nandy to win is my finger in the air guess at this point. If not Nandy, McDonnell - definitely not Jarvis or Benn.
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I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
I thought 'curved screens' were the new flat screens. Anyway note that the money has come FROM Europe, weakening the European (and by inference the UK) economy.0 -
Not again
Mine for Nothing
"#Greece’s bailout negotiators are on the verge of leaving Athens without an agreement," writes @SpiegelPeter. https://t.co/7VjEfqVJ7e0 -
Pre election it would be McDonnell or Benn i.e. a senior Shadow Cabinet figure as Michael Howard was when he replaced IDS. Post election if Labour lost it would be Chuka Umunna or Dan JarvisPulpstar said:I think the next Labour leader battle, sometime between 2018 and 2021 will be between McDonnell, Nandy, Benn and maybe Jarvis. Nandy to win is my finger in the air guess at this point. If not Nandy, McDonnell - definitely not Jarvis or Benn.
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Plato_Says said:
I bought my smartphone last year. My friends laughed at my ten years old Nokia.
That is what is known as a first world perspective. Sitting here in the third world I can assure you plenty of CRT type TVs are still in use. Stuff gets used and lovingly cared for until it eventually dies because people can't afford to replace it. Plenty of people still using VHS video recorders as well. I imagine the same is true in Senegal.Indigo said:
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
I still use a bottom end Nokia, I bought a pair for P450 (about six and a half quid) in a department store, new and unlocked. When I walk around downtown I would get a little nervous taking out a smartphone to make a call when the phone is worth what most of the people walking past me earn in half a year.0 -
Jesus Christ would have lost to Blair in 1997 indeed many though Blair was the second coming!Sunil_Prasannan said:
And then gifted the country to New Labour!HYUFD said:
John Major won a general election after 13 years of Tory governmentTCPoliticalBetting said:
He has some thing of John Major about him. Not a positive.Casino_Royale said:
I've done a rapid about turn since yesterday evening when I poo-poo'ed him below 50/1 (my oh my, how politics can change) and just backed him at 33/1 with Bet365.Plato_Says said:An interview with Stephen Crabb, the new Work & Pensions Secretary https://t.co/oJpguxVjhb by @isabelhardman
Having read a bit more about him, and watched a couple of youtube videos of his speeches this morning, he has the X-factor.
He needs (a) a shave and (b) to find an answer to the handicap of his strong pro-Remain credentials, and relaxed attitude on immigration
If he do those, and impresses in office now he's SoS, he could go far.0 -
I still use a bottom end Nokia, I bought 2 for P450 (about six and a half quid) in a department store, new and unlocked. When I walk around downtown I would get a little nervous taking out a smartphone to make a call when the phone is worth what most of the people walking past me earn in half a year.Indigo said:Plato_Says said:I bought my smartphone last year. My friends laughed at my ten years old Nokia.
That is what is known as a first world perspective. Sitting here in the third world I can assure you plenty of CRT type TVs are still in use. Stuff gets used and lovingly cared for until it eventually dies because people can't afford to replace it. Plenty of people still using VHS video recorders as well. I imagine the same is true in Senegal.Indigo said:
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
I got a C3 for my birthday in 2010, which I still use to this day
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Many years ago I read an article that said 98% of men & 50% of women were w**k*rs.FrancisUrquhart said:
Talk about limiting your market...Plato_Says said:Matt Bloom
A real sign by religious preachers in Manchester's main shopping street. How many are YOU? https://t.co/MaktmeLnjV0 -
Indeed and revolutions are driven by the middle-classsMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, maybe. If prosperity continues in China it may well continue as is (there will be bumps, of course).
China's history is summed up by a Han era saying: the empire, long divided, must unite. The empire, long united, must divide.0 -
Ah, the EU - ain't it cool?Plato_Says said:Not again
Mine for Nothing
"#Greece’s bailout negotiators are on the verge of leaving Athens without an agreement," writes @SpiegelPeter. https://t.co/7VjEfqVJ7e0 -
The damage to Osborne from the current "unishambles" will be much greater than the damage from the "omnishambles".
It eliminates Osborne's chance of being voted leader and it damages Conservative prospects in the May elections, upsetting local activists.0 -
And that reflects a real split in the country. As I understand it from reading in dispatches (not the programme) In is doing well in cities and OUT well in towns. Mind you, would imagine that go into the east end of London and OUT would be popular.
Ordinarily I'd agree that IN would win. People generally stick with the status quo instead of change, especially when it could be big change. But I think that a lot of people have a gut instinct that the status quo doesn't work for them and they want to change it. Unless IN comes up with either a viable narrative to address migration or a proper fear campaign ("Nissan, Honda, Toyota - why would these exporters stay here if we cut ourselves off from their market" etc) I can't see how the argument is won.
With respect to the markets are they paying attention too much to leafy London suburbia?Plato_Says said:The contrast with the wards canvassed by Nick in London are stark. He met 2 Leavers out of 100 doorknocks
RochdalePioneers said:Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
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It's more complicated than that. Many of the African migrants were quite happily settled in Libya, until that country imploded.
People move to improve their lot. Globalisation, global warming and global conflict are considerable drivers, combined with the huge profits to be made in people trafficking. There is a perfect storm fuelling this huge population displacement which will only get more acute over the coming months and years.
If you want to blame anything for the present migrant crisis, blame the human condition and it's need to survive and thrive. It is what makes us what we are.Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
No so.
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.0 -
Required by who?Plato_Says said:A link is required for that assertion
Pong said:
He's also a hardcore homophobe.Plato_Says said:Depends on your POV, but I think it helps him
Fraser Nelson
Something else about Stephen Crabb, new Work & Pensions Secretary: he does God. Interview: https://t.co/TPsgFh7t71 https://t.co/tjRSIojvj1
He's a CARE plant. See google.0 -
Ned Donovan
lol https://t.co/eT1xcq4QDV0 -
Hold your bets on John McDonnell.He is less likely to be a runner than not.Pulpstar said:I think the next Labour leader battle, sometime between 2018 and 2021 will be between McDonnell, Nandy, Benn and maybe Jarvis. Nandy to win is my finger in the air guess at this point. If not Nandy, McDonnell - definitely not Jarvis or Benn.
0 -
tyson - soft on illegal immigration, soft on the causes of illegal immigrationtyson said:It's more complicated than that. Many of the African migrants were quite happily settled in Libya, until that country imploded.
People move to improve their lot. Globalisation, global warming and global conflict are considerable drivers, combined with the huge profits to be made in people trafficking. There is a perfect storm fuelling this huge population displacement which will only get more acute over the coming months and years.
If you want to blame anything for the present migrant crisis, blame the human condition and it's need to survive and thrive. It is what makes us what we are. 0 -
tyson said:
Southam- it matters to you. To cement the Norther Irish agreement NI went to McGuiness and Paisley who became friends. Politics is full of figures who reinvent themselves, often for good.
Most people accept the past is the past.
Labour needs someone who can reach out to both sides of the party- the PLP and the membership. Corbyn has neither the intelligence, the insight, or the will to do this. The membership will not accept a figure foisted on them by the PLP.
I am sure McDonnell would not have spent his political capital on a defence review, or talking about the Falklands.
McDonnell is charming, and his narrative about the economy resonates.
So, we need a figure from the left who can unite the party with it's moderate MP's.
Yep, it's not acceptable to me. I really don't see anything charming in openly and consistently supporting an organisation that spent decades pursuing a strategy of murder and maiming in order to force a united Ireland against the democratically expressed wishes of the majority in Northern Ireland. It maybe just me, but there you go.SouthamObserver said:
McDonnell is certainly more politically astute than Corbyn and more pragmatic economically. But that is not a huge leap forward. What he has said and done in the past matters. It's the only way to judge him. And he openly supported an organisation that wanted to murder and maim British citizens into becoming part of another country. That is just not acceptable in my book. There have to be red lines.tyson said:OK McDonnell has a past. But it is what he does now that is important. Could he create a shadow cabinet and bring in people like Yvette, Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Starmer? Would he treat the PLP with more respect?
McDonnell has a lefty, economic discourse that is really quite compelling. So far, I have yet to see any of the Labour moderates come up with any idea of any note except the "I am not a Tory line."SouthamObserver said:@Tyson - McDonnell is presentable. Then you look at what he has said and done over the years, and you quickly realise he is deeply unpleasant.
I hear plenty of things from Labour moderates. It's just most Labour members do not agree with them. I like what people such as Dan Jarvis say, but I am in a minority - or would be if I were a Labour member.0 -
I don't see why he'd want to give his opponents extra stature at this point. The time to be magnanimous will be after he's won.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
0 -
Why do you say that? Has he given some indication that he wouldn't stand?volcanopete said:
Hold your bets on John McDonnell.He is less likely to be a runner than not.Pulpstar said:I think the next Labour leader battle, sometime between 2018 and 2021 will be between McDonnell, Nandy, Benn and maybe Jarvis. Nandy to win is my finger in the air guess at this point. If not Nandy, McDonnell - definitely not Jarvis or Benn.
0 -
It maybe more a sign he does not think she's very good; which is probably a fair assessment.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
0 -
Given you're an expert here, share your evidence. It's perfectly normal PB fact sharing.Pong said:
Required by who?Plato_Says said:A link is required for that assertion
Pong said:
He's also a hardcore homophobe.Plato_Says said:Depends on your POV, but I think it helps him
Fraser Nelson
Something else about Stephen Crabb, new Work & Pensions Secretary: he does God. Interview: https://t.co/TPsgFh7t71 https://t.co/tjRSIojvj1
He's a CARE plant. See google.0 -
Major had to contend with the eurosceptic "bastards" undermining him, including Duncan Smith.Sunil_Prasannan said:
And then gifted the country to New Labour!HYUFD said:
John Major won a general election after 13 years of Tory governmentTCPoliticalBetting said:
He has some thing of John Major about him. Not a positive.Casino_Royale said:
I've done a rapid about turn since yesterday evening when I poo-poo'ed him below 50/1 (my oh my, how politics can change) and just backed him at 33/1 with Bet365.Plato_Says said:An interview with Stephen Crabb, the new Work & Pensions Secretary https://t.co/oJpguxVjhb by @isabelhardman
Having read a bit more about him, and watched a couple of youtube videos of his speeches this morning, he has the X-factor.
He needs (a) a shave and (b) to find an answer to the handicap of his strong pro-Remain credentials, and relaxed attitude on immigration
If he do those, and impresses in office now he's SoS, he could go far.0 -
Immigration is a massive issue and it is one that I think a lot of ordinary people are now starting to get quite worked up about. This is nothing to do with immigrants or jobs but about public services, especially health and education.RochdalePioneers said:
When people stop and talk its brief. Polite conversations end in "no". Less polite in "off". Its all about migration and in my opinion the In campaign have no answers to very genuine concerns that working people have. I posted on Facebook on New Years Day that (a) Boris would be the face of OUT (b) Out wins and (c) Boris becomes PM. I'm confident that b and c will happen as a already has.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
An interesting time. We're heading for the unholy trinity of Prime Minister Johnson and Presidents Trump and Le Pen.
We cannot increase the population of the country by the equivalent of a city the size of Cardiff every year, for year after year, without putting pressure on public services. Those pressures have now built up to the point that an awful lot of people are starting not only to notice but to be adversely affected. The article on the front page of the Telegraph this morning about the crisis in A&E is, perhaps, another bit of evidence of the problems caused by a rapidly rising population.
Cameron & Co have nothing to say about this, save a policy, a promise (or was it an aspiration), that he has for some six years now failed to implement. If in the minds of the electorate membership of the EU becomes linked with overwhelmed public services then Remain will lose.
I still can't see Johnson as PM though.
0 -
In other words, there is only so much protection of older richer retired people at the expense of younger poorer working ones that social justice can bear. We have long made exactly this case, suggesting that the winter fuel allowance, free bus passes, free TV licences, the triple locking of pensions and the ring-fencing of NHS spending are now a hook on which the Government is impaled and from which it needs an Affordability Commission to wriggle free...
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/03/duncan-smiths-resignation-the-quiet-man-roars.html
Duncan Smith’s appointment was risky from the first. His relationship with Osborne went wrong very quickly. David Cameron tried to move him from Work and Pensions to Justice, but Duncan Smith stood his ground and dug in.0 -
I don't think Osborne's dodgy brother helps either, especially since he looks just like George except podgier.
I think George also suffers from that terrible curse- being too clever for his own good. Gordon suffered from the same affliction. Just too bright by half. It doesn't help being the school swot- it just makes you unlikeable and charmless.
Poor old George- hero to zero in a matter of weeks. You could almost feel sorry for him.David_Evershed said:The damage to Osborne from the current "unishambles" will be much greater than the damage from the "omnishambles".
It eliminates Osborne's chance of being voted leader and it damages Conservative prospects in the May elections, upsetting local activists.0 -
You "handout" Benefits (income supplements), you cannot "handout" tax cuts ... the latter, far from being a handout is simply putting the government's greedy paw less deeply into someone's pockets. Similarly, not raising beer duty is not a handout ... [see 'The Magic Money Tree Lectures'].NorfolkTilIDie said:
Hes being attacked because he got IDS to agree to cutting the welfare of disabled people as it was necessary for deficit reduction, then turned round and used it to handout tax cuts to the wealthy. Just as he did in the first Omnishambles budget. He never learns.perdix said:
Osborne is being attacked by his own side and in the press because he is a "Remainer". That was ultimately the cause of IDS's frustration. However, Osborne needs to be more circumspect in his dealings.SouthamObserver said:We may all be reading too much into IDS's resignation:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/welfare/2016/03/think-iain-duncan-smiths-resignation-masterstroke-sadly-hes-not-clever
Perhaps Cameron and Osborne would have more loyalty if they didn't treat cabinet ministers they disagreed with like crap. Their arrogance has come back to haunt them.0 -
They were subsequently proved to be right went the EU stiffed Major on the Social Chapter(?) and his only response was a rather weak "it's not fair" letter to the Commission.David_Evershed said:
Major had to contend with the eurosceptic "bastards" undermining him, including Duncan Smith.Sunil_Prasannan said:
And then gifted the country to New Labour!HYUFD said:
John Major won a general election after 13 years of Tory governmentTCPoliticalBetting said:
He has some thing of John Major about him. Not a positive.Casino_Royale said:
I've done a rapid about turn since yesterday evening when I poo-poo'ed him below 50/1 (my oh my, how politics can change) and just backed him at 33/1 with Bet365.Plato_Says said:An interview with Stephen Crabb, the new Work & Pensions Secretary https://t.co/oJpguxVjhb by @isabelhardman
Having read a bit more about him, and watched a couple of youtube videos of his speeches this morning, he has the X-factor.
He needs (a) a shave and (b) to find an answer to the handicap of his strong pro-Remain credentials, and relaxed attitude on immigration
If he do those, and impresses in office now he's SoS, he could go far.0 -
Hmm the new F1 qualifying seems a bit... errm...0
-
Mr. Pulpstar, no spoilers. I listened to it live, but others may be waiting for highlights.
I agree it is quite special.
Edited extra bit: my pre-race piece, which is full of spoilers for qualifying, is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/australia-pre-race.html0 -
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You are right. Overall, I am a bit of a softy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
tyson - soft on illegal immigration, soft on the causes of illegal immigrationtyson said:It's more complicated than that. Many of the African migrants were quite happily settled in Libya, until that country imploded.
People move to improve their lot. Globalisation, global warming and global conflict are considerable drivers, combined with the huge profits to be made in people trafficking. There is a perfect storm fuelling this huge population displacement which will only get more acute over the coming months and years.
If you want to blame anything for the present migrant crisis, blame the human condition and it's need to survive and thrive. It is what makes us what we are.Sunil_Prasannan said:
tyson - soft on illegal immigration, soft on the causes of illegal immigrationtyson said:It's more complicated than that. Many of the African migrants were quite happily settled in Libya, until that country imploded.
People move to improve their lot. Globalisation, global warming and global conflict are considerable drivers, combined with the huge profits to be made in people trafficking. There is a perfect storm fuelling this huge population displacement which will only get more acute over the coming months and years.
If you want to blame anything for the present migrant crisis, blame the human condition and it's need to survive and thrive. It is what makes us what we are.0 -
The consequence of Merkel's decision to encourage economic migrants from the Middle East to Germany means Germany will end up funding both Greece and Turkey.Plato_Says said:Not again
Mine for Nothing
"#Greece’s bailout negotiators are on the verge of leaving Athens without an agreement," writes @SpiegelPeter. https://t.co/7VjEfqVJ7e
What will be the other unintended consequences of the current plan to forcibly send back asylum seekers to Turkey?0 -
Duplicate0
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Added to which, Patel, like Javid, is mainly backed because of her background rather than her ability. I recall the automaton interview she gave in response to the election of Corbyn (like Ed Miliband at his absolute worst), in which despite being continually pressed she was never going to shift from the wording of her brief. That interview convinced me she hasn't got what it takes.edmundintokyo said:
I don't see why he'd want to give his opponents extra stature at this point. The time to be magnanimous will be after he's won.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
0 -
There is a Tory lord (& not the only Tory I'm sure) on the Celtic board as it happens. Not hugely popular on the terraces, mind..david_herdson said:
Would Celtic Park be an option? *Ducks*RobD said:
Meanwhile Scottish Tories won't be holding a conference as there just isn't a venue big enough in the whole of Scotland.malcolmg said:
Labour conference today in the IMAX, capacity 370 and it is not even filled, how low can they go.ThreeQuidder said:
If Scotland last year didn't kill off the idea of the "safe seat", what will?foxinsoxuk said:
Have you considered the Womens Equality Party?TwistedFireStopper said:
I know. Is there an East Midlands SNP branch?foxinsoxuk said:
The Green party isn't doing very well either...TwistedFireStopper said:
Ah, I've got you there, young Jack. I never voted for them, I voted Green, so I feel pure enough to be able to carp from the sidelines.JackW said:
The "piss poor" electorate vote for them ....TwistedFireStopper said:Hahaha haha haha!
Conservatives-fecked.
Labour-fecked.
Lib Dems-really fecked.
UKIP-fecked.
How did we end up with such piss poor politicians?
In Leics every seat now seems to be safe for one party or the other (7:3 Con over Lab) with no one else getting a serious look in, so it doesn't really matter who you vote for. In a way it is quite liberating.
0 -
While we are being pedantic: deciding not raise an area of spending in future years by quite as much as one previously planned to is not a cut, and it certainly doesn't take money away from anyone.LewisDuckworth said:
You "handout" Benefits (income supplements), you cannot "handout" tax cuts ... the latter, far from being a handout is simply putting the government's greedy paw less deeply into someone's pockets. Similarly, not raising beer duty is not a handout ... [see 'The Magic Money Tree Lectures'].NorfolkTilIDie said:
Hes being attacked because he got IDS to agree to cutting the welfare of disabled people as it was necessary for deficit reduction, then turned round and used it to handout tax cuts to the wealthy. Just as he did in the first Omnishambles budget. He never learns.perdix said:
Osborne is being attacked by his own side and in the press because he is a "Remainer". That was ultimately the cause of IDS's frustration. However, Osborne needs to be more circumspect in his dealings.SouthamObserver said:We may all be reading too much into IDS's resignation:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/welfare/2016/03/think-iain-duncan-smiths-resignation-masterstroke-sadly-hes-not-clever
Perhaps Cameron and Osborne would have more loyalty if they didn't treat cabinet ministers they disagreed with like crap. Their arrogance has come back to haunt them.0 -
Another round of the Greek financial crisis is interesting timing #EURef wise, it will also likely test, possibly to destruction, the recent agreement that the UK doesn't have to foot and of the bill for any eurozone financial woes.David_Evershed said:
The consequence of Merkel's decision to encourage economic migrants from the Middle East to Germany means Germany will end up funding both Greece and Turkey.Plato_Says said:Not again
Mine for Nothing
"#Greece’s bailout negotiators are on the verge of leaving Athens without an agreement," writes @SpiegelPeter. https://t.co/7VjEfqVJ7e
What will be the other unintended consequences of the current plan to forcibly send back asylum seekers to Turkey?
Forced repatriation as disaster written all over it, is against the Geneva Convention, its against the ECHR and its going to give the TV endless footage of dust ups between angry young men and border guards, and tearful women with babies in arms being frogmarched by border guards. If there is the slightest overreaction on either side it will also be a bloodbath.0 -
Mr. Indigo, not only that, how much of the €6bn bribe being flung at Turkey will come from us?0
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Had a conversation with one chap on exactly this subject - not bothered about migration per se, but on the impact of mass migration on the NHS. And its hard to argue against this argument. You can't control migration within the EU - unless free movement ceases to be a core part of the EU project and we need the refugee crisis to split apart schengen for that to happen.
There are "other" views on EU and migration. Quite a few people voting out when asked why say "are you colour blind"....HurstLlama said:
Immigration is a massive issue and it is one that I think a lot of ordinary people are now starting to get quite worked up about. This is nothing to do with immigrants or jobs but about public services, especially health and education.RochdalePioneers said:
When people stop and talk its brief. Polite conversations end in "no". Less polite in "off". Its all about migration and in my opinion the In campaign have no answers to very genuine concerns that working people have. I posted on Facebook on New Years Day that (a) Boris would be the face of OUT (b) Out wins and (c) Boris becomes PM. I'm confident that b and c will happen as a already has.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
An interesting time. We're heading for the unholy trinity of Prime Minister Johnson and Presidents Trump and Le Pen.
We cannot increase the population of the country by the equivalent of a city the size of Cardiff every year, for year after year, without putting pressure on public services. Those pressures have now built up to the point that an awful lot of people are starting not only to notice but to be adversely affected. The article on the front page of the Telegraph this morning about the crisis in A&E is, perhaps, another bit of evidence of the problems caused by a rapidly rising population.
Cameron & Co have nothing to say about this, save a policy, a promise (or was it an aspiration), that he has for some six years now failed to implement. If in the minds of the electorate membership of the EU becomes linked with overwhelmed public services then Remain will lose.
I still can't see Johnson as PM though.0 -
This is rather fun
Standing for Oh my God, and used to express astonishment, this initialism predates textspeak by many decades. It is first found, indeed, in a letter to Winston Churchill (later Prime Minister) from 1917.
http://blog.oxforddictionaries.com/2015/10/x-factor-older-words/0 -
Stop being emotive. McDonnell's manner is quite charming- he is self deprecating and eloquent. His views on the IRA are in the past- and that horrible conflict was so utterly compromised by all parties that I doubt few folk can look back on it with such clarity as you can.SouthamObserver said:tyson said:
Southam- it matters to you. To cement the Norther Irish agreement NI went to McGuiness and Paisley who became friends. Politics is full of figures who reinvent themselves, often for good.
Most people accept the past is the past.
Labour needs someone who can reach out to both sides of the party- the PLP and the membership. Corbyn has neither the intelligence, the insight, or the will to do this. The membership will not accept a figure foisted on them by the PLP.
I am sure McDonnell would not have spent his political capital on a defence review, or talking about the Falklands.
McDonnell is charming, and his narrative about the economy resonates.
So, we need a figure from the left who can unite the party with it's moderate MP's.
Yep, it's not acceptable to me. I really don't see anything charming in openly and consistently supporting an organisation that spent decades pursuing a strategy of murder and maiming in order to force a united Ireland against the democratically expressed wishes of the majority in Northern Ireland. It maybe just me, but there you go.SouthamObserver said:
McDonnell is certainly more politically astute than Corbyn and more pragmatic economically. But that is not a huge leap forward. What he has said and done in the past matters. It's the only way to judge him. And he openly supported an organisation that wanted to murder and maim British citizens into becoming part of another country. That is just not acceptable in my book. There have to be red lines.tyson said:OK McDonnell has a past. But it is what he does now that is important. Could he create a shadow cabinet and bring in people like Yvette, Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Starmer? Would he treat the PLP with more respect?
McDonnell has a lefty, economic discourse that is really quite compelling. So far, I have yet to see any of the Labour moderates come up with any idea of any note except the "I am not a Tory line."SouthamObserver said:@Tyson - McDonnell is presentable. Then you look at what he has said and done over the years, and you quickly realise he is deeply unpleasant.
I hear plenty of things from Labour moderates. It's just most Labour members do not agree with them. I like what people such as Dan Jarvis say, but I am in a minority - or would be if I were a Labour member.0 -
Wasn't Javid some big cheese in a bank? Promoting on grounds of background is not a known trait of money making organisations, so I rather suspect he has a lot of talent. Whether he has the communication skills needed to be a successful politician is another matter. I am beginning to suspect he hasn't, but we shall see.ThomasNashe said:
Added to which, Patel, like Javid, is mainly backed because of her background rather than her ability. I recall the automaton interview she gave in response to the election of Corbyn (like Ed Miliband at his absolute worst), in which despite being continually pressed she was never going to shift from the wording of her brief. That interview convinced me she hasn't got what it takes.edmundintokyo said:
I don't see why he'd want to give his opponents extra stature at this point. The time to be magnanimous will be after he's won.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
0 -
Plato_Says said:
I bought my smartphone last year. My friends laughed at my ten years old Nokia.
That is what is known as a first world perspective. Sitting here in the third world I can assure you plenty of CRT type TVs are still in use. Stuff gets used and lovingly cared for until it eventually dies because people can't afford to replace it. Plenty of people still using VHS video recorders as well. I imagine the same is true in Senegal.Indigo said:
I really wish people would stop saying "flat screen" before TV as if this is some kind of decadent luxury. All TVs are flat screen these daysAlistair said:Indigo said:
No so.Mortimer said:I understand this pov re migrants, but I think it is simplistic. The migrants are coming from failed or failing states - the people of Egypt are not exactly flocking are they?
Quite a lot of economic migrants are coming from the "doing slightly better states" notably Senegal. The problem with increasing the prosperity a bit of the sort of states people migrate from is there is still a massive difference in standard of living, easily enough to drive migration, but the people concerned can now afford smartphones to see what they are missing in the rest of the world, and afford to pay for tickets and people smugglers to get them there.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/young-men-in-senegal-join-migrant-wave-despite-growing-prosperity-at-home-1434127244Senegal is a stable West African democracy, and Kothiary has profited from the currents of globalization transforming rural Africa’s more prosperous areas. Flat screen TVs and, increasingly, cars—mostly purchased with money wired home by villagers working in Europe—have reshaped what was once a settlement of mud huts. The wealth has plugged this isolated landscape of peanut farms and baobab trees into the global economy and won respect for the men who sent it.
But it has also put European living standards on real-time display, and handed young farm hands the cash to buy a ticket out.
My car is nearly 15 years old, but still works fine, so why bother buying a new one?0 -
£500m so far isn't it?
Or was that a different bung?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not only that, how much of the €6bn bribe being flung at Turkey will come from us?
0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
And that reflects a real split in the country. As I understand it from reading in dispatches (not the programme) In is doing well in cities and OUT well in towns. Mind you, would imagine that go into the east end of London and OUT would be popular.
Ordinarily I'd agree that IN would win. People generally stick with the status quo instead of change, especially when it could be big change. But I think that a lot of people have a gut instinct that the status quo doesn't work for them and they want to change it. Unless IN comes up with either a viable narrative to address migration or a proper fear campaign ("Nissan, Honda, Toyota - why would these exporters stay here if we cut ourselves off from their market" etc) I can't see how the argument is won.
With respect to the markets are they paying attention too much to leafy London suburbia?Plato_Says said:The contrast with the wards canvassed by Nick in London are stark. He met 2 Leavers out of 100 doorknocks
RochdalePioneers said:
Stockton is probably as representative of England as Islington is. The bit that really matters is the middle where most people have jobs, mortgages and are reasonably - though not comfortably - off. Places like Leamington Spa, for example! Up to now around here, referendum fever has not been that evident.Plato_Says said:What's the reception?
RochdalePioneers said:Just back in from our second RemaIN EU street stall in Stockton-on-Tees. Don't put money on IN.
If people do vote Leave on the basis that it will significantly restrict immigration they are going to end up very angry.0 -
Mid 1920s, Population exchanges in Greece, Turkey hid a multitude of personal tragedies.Indigo said:
Another round of the Greek financial crisis is interesting timing #EURef wise, it will also likely test, possibly to destruction, the recent agreement that the UK doesn't have to foot and of the bill for any eurozone financial woes.David_Evershed said:
The consequence of Merkel's decision to encourage economic migrants from the Middle East to Germany means Germany will end up funding both Greece and Turkey.Plato_Says said:Not again
Mine for Nothing
"#Greece’s bailout negotiators are on the verge of leaving Athens without an agreement," writes @SpiegelPeter. https://t.co/7VjEfqVJ7e
What will be the other unintended consequences of the current plan to forcibly send back asylum seekers to Turkey?
Forced repatriation as disaster written all over it, is against the Geneva Convention, its against the ECHR and its going to give the TV endless footage of dust ups between angry young men and border guards, and tearful women with babies in arms being frogmarched by border guards. If there is the slightest overreaction on either side it will also be a bloodbath.0 -
The TV pix will kill it alone. IIRC Turkey isn't signed up to Refugees Convention rules, but that won't matter muchIndigo said:
Another round of the Greek financial crisis is interesting timing #EURef wise, it will also likely test, possibly to destruction, the recent agreement that the UK doesn't have to foot and of the bill for any eurozone financial woes.David_Evershed said:
The consequence of Merkel's decision to encourage economic migrants from the Middle East to Germany means Germany will end up funding both Greece and Turkey.Plato_Says said:Not again
Mine for Nothing
"#Greece’s bailout negotiators are on the verge of leaving Athens without an agreement," writes @SpiegelPeter. https://t.co/7VjEfqVJ7e
What will be the other unintended consequences of the current plan to forcibly send back asylum seekers to Turkey?
Forced repatriation as disaster written all over it, is against the Geneva Convention, its against the ECHR and its going to give the TV endless footage of dust ups between angry young men and border guards, and tearful women with babies in arms being frogmarched by border guards. If there is the slightest overreaction on either side it will also be a bloodbath.0 -
Stockton is probably as representative of England as Islington is. The bit that really matters is the middle where most people have jobs, mortgages and are reasonably - though not comfortably - off. Places like Leamington Spa, for example! Up to now around here, referendum fever has not been that evident.
If people do vote Leave on the basis that it will significantly restrict immigration they are going to end up very angry.
0 -
Incidentally, if you google 'Priti Patel car crash interview' there are rather more entries than a prospective Prime Minister would ideally want.0
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I've just read up on Crabb on Wikipedia and Pong is right. He was a CARE Parliamentary intern.Plato_Says said:Given you're an expert here, share your evidence. It's perfectly normal PB fact sharing.
Pong said:
Required by who?Plato_Says said:A link is required for that assertion
Pong said:
He's also a hardcore homophobe.Plato_Says said:Depends on your POV, but I think it helps him
Fraser Nelson
Something else about Stephen Crabb, new Work & Pensions Secretary: he does God. Interview: https://t.co/TPsgFh7t71 https://t.co/tjRSIojvj1
He's a CARE plant. See google.0 -
Baroness Stroud is very odd looking on Sky. She's wearing pearl strings and a pearl Alice band - and a black dress. All she needs is a Victorian funeral to attend.0
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@HurstLlama
'Immigration is a massive issue and it is one that I think a lot of ordinary people are now starting to get quite worked up about. This is nothing to do with immigrants or jobs but about public services, especially health and education.
We cannot increase the population of the country by the equivalent of a city the size of Cardiff every year, for year after year, without putting pressure on public services. Those pressures have now built up to the point that an awful lot of people are starting not only to notice but to be adversely affected. The article on the front page of the Telegraph this morning about the crisis in A&E is, perhaps, another bit of evidence of the problems caused by a rapidly rising population.'
How can people not notice the impact of mass immigration, whether it's trying to get an appointment with your GP,taking your car on grid locked roads,young people trying to find somewhere to live or the sheer volume of people waiting at A & E.
And the trade-off in terms of doing something about it is lower GDP for a few years & no influence in an organisation that we already have virtually no influence,it's a no brainer for many people.0 -
Yes, by ability I mean principally the abilities required by a politician who wants to to win elections: i.e communication, projecting a boundary-crossing vision. I'm certainly not seeing it with either Javid or Patel.HurstLlama said:
Wasn't Javid some big cheese in a bank? Promoting on grounds of background is not a known trait of money making organisations, so I rather suspect he has a lot of talent. Whether he has the communication skills needed to be a successful politician is another matter. I am beginning to suspect he hasn't, but we shall see.ThomasNashe said:
Added to which, Patel, like Javid, is mainly backed because of her background rather than her ability. I recall the automaton interview she gave in response to the election of Corbyn (like Ed Miliband at his absolute worst), in which despite being continually pressed she was never going to shift from the wording of her brief. That interview convinced me she hasn't got what it takes.edmundintokyo said:
I don't see why he'd want to give his opponents extra stature at this point. The time to be magnanimous will be after he's won.NorfolkTilIDie said:Patel being passed over for Crabb is sign Cameron is not going to try to reconcile with Leave supporters.
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€500m was mentioned.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indigo, not only that, how much of the 6bn bribe being flung at Turkey will come from us?
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Absolutely. Most of the OUT support seems based on migration (at least up here - we have jobs and mortgages and some of us are reasonably off). They seem to think that if we vote out we get rid of all these foreigners. The IN campaign needs to point out that this is a blatant lie...SouthamObserver said:If people do vote Leave on the basis that it will significantly restrict immigration they are going to end up very angry.
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Greece is , and that is where the unwilling people are going to have to be prodded onto buses and driven back to Turkey from. Complete madness.Plato_Says said:The TV pix will kill it alone. IIRC Turkey isn't signed up to Refugees Convention rules, but that won't matter much
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tyson said:
Stop being emotive. McDonnell's manner is quite charming- he is self deprecating and eloquent. His views on the IRA are in the past- and that horrible conflict was so utterly compromised by all parties that I doubt few folk can look back on it with such clarity as you can.
I am giving you my views. Maybe they are emotive. I don't find McDonnell charming. I don't care if he's self-deprecating or eloquent. It's his record and his beliefs that interest me. They are abhorent. We'll have to agree to disagree.SouthamObserver said:tyson said:Southam- it matters to you. To cement the Norther Irish agreement NI went to McGuiness and Paisley who became friends. Politics is full of figures who reinvent themselves, often for good.
Most people accept the past is the past.
Labour needs someone who can reach out to both sides of the party- the PLP and the membership. Corbyn has neither the intelligence, the insight, or the will to do this. The membership will not accept a figure foisted on them by the PLP.
I am sure McDonnell would not have spent his political capital on a defence review, or talking about the Falklands.
McDonnell is charming, and his narrative about the economy resonates.
So, we need a figure from the left who can unite the party with it's moderate MP's.
Yep, it's not acceptable to me. I really don't see anything charming in openly and consistently supporting an organisation that spent decades pursuing a strategy of murder and maiming in order to force a united Ireland against the democratically expressed wishes of the majority in Northern Ireland. It maybe just me, but there you go.SouthamObserver said:
McDonnell is certainly more politically astute than Corbyn and more pragmatic economically. But that is not a huge leap forward.tyson said:OK McDonnell has a past. But it is what he does now that is important. Could he create a shadow cabinet and bring in people like Yvette, Dan Jarvis, Chuka, Starmer? Would he treat the PLP with more respect?
McDonnell has a lefty, economic discourse that is really quite compelling. So far, I have yet to see any of the Labour moderates come up with any idea of any note except the "I am not a Tory line."SouthamObserver said:@Tyson - McDonnell is presentable. Then you look at what he has said and done over the years, and you quickly realise he is deeply unpleasant.
I hear plenty of things from Labour moderates. It's just most Labour members do not agree with them. I like what people such as Dan Jarvis say, but I am in a minority - or would be if I were a Labour member.0 -
Really looking to lock up the minority vote there.RodCrosby said:
Excellent centre pivoting. Just feels super central.0 -
If you read the article, it's hardly "neo-nazi"TheWhiteRabbit said:
- stopping state funding for single mothers, making abortion and divorce more difficult
- therapy resistant alcoholics, mentally ill and pyschologically ill perpetrators kept under lock and key not hospitals
- not including handicapped children in mainstream schools "at all costs"
- reduced age of criminal responsibility
- flat tax
I don't agree with many of those prescriptions, but there are valid arguments that can be made for them.0 -
With regard to the next Labour leader market,there is a possibility of an AWS should the party want to show it really has addressed gender inequality and show it truly is a progressive party of the 21st century.It is the only way for Labour to stop electing a bloke every time.In that unlikely event,I would look to the Deputy Leadership candidates,Stella Creasy at 50-1,Angela Eagle at 25-1 and Caroline Flint at 40-1.
It might happen but it's worth saying the Lib Dems,riven by allegations of sexual harassment, are far worse with all their MPs old white blokes in suits.
In hope.0 -
@SouthamObserver
'If people do vote Leave on the basis that it will significantly restrict immigration they are going to end up very angry.'
If the end Leave deal is outside EU / EFTA then of course immigration can be properly controlled.
What people clearly understand is if Remain wins immigration will only continue to increase & perhaps at an even faster rate with either a resulting collapse in public services or massive tax hikes to pay for them.
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I said fucking hell, not that they were neo-Nazis.Charles said:
If you read the article, it's hardly "neo-nazi"TheWhiteRabbit said:
- stopping state funding for single mothers, making abortion and divorce more difficult
- therapy resistant alcoholics, mentally ill and pyschologically ill perpetrators kept under lock and key not hospitals
- not including handicapped children in mainstream schools "at all costs"
- reduced age of criminal responsibility
- flat tax
I don't agree with many of those prescriptions, but there are valid arguments that can be made for them.
But it is a very dramatic manifesto, rolling back seventy years of the welfare state, ending religious and ethnic equality, introducing state censorship of culture, and a complete overhaul of taxation.
Approached with an almost religious fervour, from a party that used to be perfectly moderate.0 -
The people I've spoken to want immigrants out. Not just capped where it is now.john_zims said:
If the end Leave deal is outside EU / EFTA then of course immigration can be properly controlled.
What people clearly understand is if Remain wins immigration will only continue to increase & perhaps at an even faster rate with either a resulting collapse in public services or massive tax hikes to pay for them.
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But they can't as it would admit they are powerless and Camerons' "Cutting net migration to the tens of thousands" would be shown to be the lie it was.RochdalePioneers said:
Absolutely. Most of the OUT support seems based on migration (at least up here - we have jobs and mortgages and some of us are reasonably off). They seem to think that if we vote out we get rid of all these foreigners. The IN campaign needs to point out that this is a blatant lie...SouthamObserver said:If people do vote Leave on the basis that it will significantly restrict immigration they are going to end up very angry.
Basically LEAVE WANT the theme to be pushed onto immigration as well as cultural conflict.0 -
What would you do with them?Indigo said:
Greece is , and that is where the unwilling people are going to have to be prodded onto buses and driven back to Turkey from. Complete madness.Plato_Says said:The TV pix will kill it alone. IIRC Turkey isn't signed up to Refugees Convention rules, but that won't matter much
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The simulation that proves standing only escalators work on the Tube https://t.co/DD1B5L2skS https://t.co/ACE66TXxvO0
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One can say it wasn't all him, but he did his part
Fraser Nelson
Iain Duncan Smith took over in a crash, and leaves with employment at highest rate ever recorded. Not a bad legacy. https://t.co/OVHRCVxKQq0
