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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay the price for being split
More detail from Times story on its YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/hXp0reb6l8
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Here we go again with more nonsense from the pollsters...0
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Dave Gorman's take down of the YouGov panel makeup is worth a second watch...all those Nazi's Dec fans vs the Maoist Ant fans...0
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Just for old times sake
Tonights YG JICIPM0 -
Corbynism sweeping the nation...0
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This is like Dallas, I was sure I was on a thread about by elections, now it seems it's all a dream.0
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Double new-thread: refreshes your breath, naturally.0
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BJOWNCFTNPM.bigjohnowls said:Just for old times sake
Tonights YG JICIPM0 -
People probably just run several years behind events - after all, people don't know how good they have got it till it's gone, as they say. Sometimes they don't know how bad they have had it either.FrancisUrquhart said:
I doubt it is that...TSE confirms, it seems like people are convinced they themselves are getting screwed by this budget...which just shows you people aren't actually reacting to what is in the budget.bigjohnowls said:
Clue - £4bn cuts to disabled benefits to pay for a Corporation Tax cut et alFrancisUrquhart said:
So what exactly in the budget was seen as unfair? He kicked all the tough decision down the road and increased personal tax threshold....TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave Gorman's take down of the YouGov panelist is worth a second watch...all those Nazi's Dec fans vs the Maoist Ant fans...
Past 6 years been several budgets that have shafted people and they didn't seem to notice and then when they aren't, they convinced they have been.
In all honesty though without the negativity being thrown around over the EU business, he might have scraped through again, but the leaders seem damaged, their party divided and angry, so admission of failure on economic targets and the cumulative weight of the cuts narrative for years has probably found a more fertile audience than in previous years.0 -
Jezza keeping his trap shut and allowing Tories to gob off is a simple plan, but an effective one!0
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Imagine if he had gone to the original negotiating table with some real demands and actually threatened to walk away for real...I think we might have got a fair bit more than repeal of the great tampon tax.MarkHopkins said:
Hasn't been shafted on other VAT stuff at the same time? e.g. home insulation?0 -
Oh for heaven's sake, has nobody ever told Osborne not to over hype things?MarkHopkins said:0 -
YES BJO!!!!!bigjohnowls said:Just for old times sake
Tonights YG JICIPM
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To be honest, given the council tax bill I got tonight, I might not declare Conservative to an opinion pollster right now.
But I would almost certainly still vote for them if a GE was held tomorrow.0 -
LOL HARSH BUT FAIRCasino_Royale said:
BJOWNCFTNPM.bigjohnowls said:Just for old times sake
Tonights YG JICIPM0 -
Yes - not sure it can lead to success, ultimately, but it's curious it took him so long to figure it out. I presume it is a genuine tactic too, as other than Ken insulting Jarvis a week or so ago I'd not heard much about him and Abbott in the past few months, when for the first few of Corbyn's leadership you couldn't go five minutes without them putting their foot in it.foxinsoxuk said:Jezza keeping his trap shut and allowing Tories to gob off is a simple plan, but an effective one!
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Who would have thought that a hopelessly divided party would suffer in the polls?
It will take the Conservatives about 15 years to work that out, of course.0 -
Forget the polls.
Liverpool knocked Manchester United out of Europe0 -
Those 50 letters might well be coming in before June 23rd...SeanT said:
Oh god. Tampons. Really? This is some great victory, or is this a joke?MarkHopkins said:
What a desperate bunch of shysters leads the Tory party. Just a ghastly busload of lying twits. Cameron is the worst of the lot. GET RID.0 -
If Cameron had actually stuck to what he said he would do — that if he couldn't get a good EU deal he might recommend leave — I don't think the Tory party would be in a mess. Most Tories would happily back leave under such circumstances. The conflict is a result of his rush to get the referendum over, useless negotiations, and laughable pretence that he has secured a good deal.SeanT said:So ICM not an outlier. And ICM was BEFORE the Budget
Europe is chewing up the Tories. Anyone associated with the Cameron "deal" will be tainted.0 -
Removing VAT on tampons is just the sort of fundamental reform of the EU that the UK requires.MarkHopkins said:0 -
It's the conundrum CR. The locals on my council do a good job so I still vote for them. The central party is packed full of prats so I don't.Casino_Royale said:To be honest, given the council tax bill I got tonight, I might not declare Conservative to an opinion pollster right now.
But I would almost certainly still vote for them if a GE was held tomorrow.0 -
I've pissed off The Times, I published their polls before they did.0
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Does this mean no more donations to great charity causes like rag week.SeanT said:
Oh god. Tampons. Really? This is some great victory, or is this a joke?MarkHopkins said:
What a desperate bunch of shysters leads the Tory party. Just a ghastly busload of lying twits. Cameron is the worst of the lot. GET RID.
BOO0 -
Government trying to salvage a bad unpopular budget with tampons.MarkHopkins said:0 -
In the great tome of the UK's history with the EU, we will have Major and Maastricht, Brown and Lisbon and Cameron repeal of the great tampon tax...0
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Bold prediction, those disability cuts are getting reversed PDQ0
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More like those who deserted the Lib Dems last year realising how much of an effect they did have in moderating Tory policies.0
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Liverpool REMAIN on courseTheScreamingEagles said:Forget the polls.
Liverpool knocked Manchester United out of Europe0 -
Not a good enough job. I'm not voting for a 4% rise packed full of excuses.Alanbrooke said:
It's the conundrum CR. The locals on my council do a good job so I still vote for them. The central party is packed full of prats so I don't.Casino_Royale said:To be honest, given the council tax bill I got tonight, I might not declare Conservative to an opinion pollster right now.
But I would almost certainly still vote for them if a GE was held tomorrow.0 -
That would be a mistake - unable to heal the Tory divide on Europe though he was, in fact he seems to have made it worse, Cameron is definitely not the worst of the lot. He'll be out on his ear if Remain lose anyway, not sure there's much benefit to the party in sparking a challenge beforehand.Mortimer said:
Those 50 letters might well be coming in before June 23rd...SeanT said:
Oh god. Tampons. Really? This is some great victory, or is this a joke?MarkHopkins said:
What a desperate bunch of shysters leads the Tory party. Just a ghastly busload of lying twits. Cameron is the worst of the lot. GET RID.
But if they want to go for it and ensure Farron is the most sensible of the party leaders in parliament (given Nicola is at Holyrood), sure, go for it.0 -
so about the same time as Labour and UKIP.AlastairMeeks said:Who would have thought that a hopelessly divided party would suffer in the polls?
It will take the Conservatives about 15 years to work that out, of course.0 -
Just 3 minutes before.TheScreamingEagles said:I've pissed off The Times, I published their polls before they did.
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Good poll for UKIP, incidentally.
isam, who seems to be absent at present, will be pleased. I hope he'll return soon enough.0 -
:-Dbigjohnowls said:
LOL HARSH BUT FAIRCasino_Royale said:
BJOWNCFTNPM.bigjohnowls said:Just for old times sake
Tonights YG JICIPM0 -
With McMao and Corbo leading the opposition, it will take them about 15 days.....AlastairMeeks said:Who would have thought that a hopelessly divided party would suffer in the polls?
It will take the Conservatives about 15 years to work that out, of course.0 -
There is no doubt that the in fighting in the Conservatives is damaging and the budget cut to disability allowances is another mistake and does make you wonder why GO seems oblivious to it. I would comment that it is a bit too early to view the popularity of the measures in the budget and tonight's news of David Cameron's success in abolition of the tampon tax will prove popular. Hopefully the Conservative back bencher's will succeed in ameliorating the disability mistake but of course it is very damaging to GO.0
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And the LDs are irrelevant and invisible.Alanbrooke said:
so about the same time as Labour and UKIP.AlastairMeeks said:Who would have thought that a hopelessly divided party would suffer in the polls?
It will take the Conservatives about 15 years to work that out, of course.
UK politics is in full churn right now.0 -
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That's the trouble of course - the budget might not actually be that bad, and the bits that are may well be reversed, but all that will be remembered is the initial reaction.Big_G_NorthWales said:There is no doubt that the in fighting in the Conservatives is damaging and the budget cut to disability allowances is another mistake and does make you wonder why GO seems oblivious to it. I would comment that it is a bit too early to view the popularity of the measures in the budget and tonight's news of David Cameron's success in abolition of the tampon tax will prove popular. Hopefully the Conservative back bencher's will succeed in ameliorating the disability mistake but of course it is very damaging to GO.
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Spurs and Arsenal are also "concentrating on the League"TheScreamingEagles said:Forget the polls.
Liverpool knocked Manchester United out of Europe
It takes a heart of stone...0 -
We can only hope.Mortimer said:
Those 50 letters might well be coming in before June 23rd...SeanT said:
Oh god. Tampons. Really? This is some great victory, or is this a joke?MarkHopkins said:
What a desperate bunch of shysters leads the Tory party. Just a ghastly busload of lying twits. Cameron is the worst of the lot. GET RID.
Cameron and Osborne are running the party into the ground.
Another shambles of a budget. No doubt Osborne will backtrack on the cuts to disability payments in the next few weeks.0 -
No - I really would not go that farSeanT said:
You really think the Great Victory in the War of the Sanitary Pad Impost will signal an epochal resurgence in Tory polling?Big_G_NorthWales said:There is no doubt that the in fighting in the Conservatives is damaging and the budget cut to disability allowances is another mistake and does make you wonder why GO seems oblivious to it. I would comment that it is a bit too early to view the popularity of the measures in the budget and tonight's news of David Cameron's success in abolition of the tampon tax will prove popular. Hopefully the Conservative back bencher's will succeed in ameliorating the disability mistake but of course it is very damaging to GO.
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LOL McD is actually closing the gap.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have to dream we might meet in next season's Champions League.foxinsoxuk said:
Spurs and Arsenal are also "concentrating on the League"TheScreamingEagles said:Forget the polls.
Liverpool knocked Manchester United out of Europe
It takes a heart of stone...0 -
Like Granny Tax and Pasty Tax budget...both in the grand scheme of things really rather minor, but that is what it was remembered for. Also, bizarre, whacking 10-15p on bottle of pop, thumbs up, whacking 10-15p on a pasty, booooooooooooooo.kle4 said:
That's the trouble of course - the budget might not actually be that bad, and the bits that are may well be reversed, but all that will be remembered is the initial reaction.Big_G_NorthWales said:There is no doubt that the in fighting in the Conservatives is damaging and the budget cut to disability allowances is another mistake and does make you wonder why GO seems oblivious to it. I would comment that it is a bit too early to view the popularity of the measures in the budget and tonight's news of David Cameron's success in abolition of the tampon tax will prove popular. Hopefully the Conservative back bencher's will succeed in ameliorating the disability mistake but of course it is very damaging to GO.
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I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.0
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The budget was designed to win the referendum remember, Osborne miscalculated the results and it backfired, they know it backfired and they are trying to salvage it with tampons.Big_G_NorthWales said:There is no doubt that the in fighting in the Conservatives is damaging and the budget cut to disability allowances is another mistake and does make you wonder why GO seems oblivious to it. I would comment that it is a bit too early to view the popularity of the measures in the budget and tonight's news of David Cameron's success in abolition of the tampon tax will prove popular. Hopefully the Conservative back bencher's will succeed in ameliorating the disability mistake but of course it is very damaging to GO.
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Most likely in the knockout stages.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to dream we might meet in next season's Champions League.foxinsoxuk said:
Spurs and Arsenal are also "concentrating on the League"TheScreamingEagles said:Forget the polls.
Liverpool knocked Manchester United out of Europe
It takes a heart of stone...0 -
The omnishambles budget was like that as well. The Treasury seem to make a right balls up in a relatively minor change that overshadows the whole.kle4 said:That's the trouble of course - the budget might not actually be that bad, and the bits that are may well be reversed, but all that will be remembered is the initial reaction.
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That is the public saying...we want RON....Re-Open Nominations...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Which wise sage said these prescient words back in September?JWisemann said:
Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.
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Hmm, talking about a race to the bottom.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Osborne's budgets remain a triumph of hype over experience.Speedy said:
The budget was designed to win the referendum remember, Osborne miscalculated the results and it backfired, they know it backfired and they are trying to salvage it with tampons.Big_G_NorthWales said:There is no doubt that the in fighting in the Conservatives is damaging and the budget cut to disability allowances is another mistake and does make you wonder why GO seems oblivious to it. I would comment that it is a bit too early to view the popularity of the measures in the budget and tonight's news of David Cameron's success in abolition of the tampon tax will prove popular. Hopefully the Conservative back bencher's will succeed in ameliorating the disability mistake but of course it is very damaging to GO.
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Patel? Dull and robotic, I recall someone saying, but I find it hard to believe Osborne's vaunted support with MPs will materialise if there is a leadership contest in the next year or so (as seems likely if Leave wins), and most of the others are also Remainers.SeanT said:The idea of Osborne as leader is laughable. He must surely see that.
Difficult to see a REMAINIAC winning in any event.
People are skeptical of Boris, Gove is damaged by the Queen thingy, so.... who? If not BoJo?
IDS redux?0 -
If we're being philosophical here, it's a race to de Botton.Speedy said:
Hmm, talking about a race to the bottom.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Agree.glw said:
If Cameron had actually stuck to what he said he would do — that if he couldn't get a good EU deal he might recommend leave — I don't think the Tory party would be in a mess. Most Tories would happily back leave under such circumstances. The conflict is a result of his rush to get the referendum over, useless negotiations, and laughable pretence that he has secured a good deal.SeanT said:So ICM not an outlier. And ICM was BEFORE the Budget
Europe is chewing up the Tories. Anyone associated with the Cameron "deal" will be tainted.0 -
No way can Osborne be the next PM after this. He's terrible at presenting anything.
Tories want to win above all else, hence its Bojo's on a plate.
On the other hand, Corbyn and Co anywhere near power is a serious risk to everyone in the UK regardless of Tory PM.0 -
No one cares about the Queen thingy. The Conservatives are in an ideological purity stage, so Michael Gove looks superbly placed. That he is as popular as herpes with the general public is irrelevant.SeanT said:The idea of Osborne as leader is laughable. He must surely see that.
Difficult to see a REMAINIAC winning in any event.
People are skeptical of Boris, Gove is damaged by the Queen thingy, so.... who? If not BoJo?0 -
Your party is still lead by Godless terrorist-sympathising Marxists. Actually getting people to vote for that shower in 2020 will prove more challenging than you appear to think.JWisemann said:Which wise sage said these prescient words back in September?
JWisemann said:Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.
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Ooh please! That will do nicely.kle4 said:
Patel? Dull and robotic, I recall someone saying, but I find it hard to believe Osborne's vaunted support with MPs will materialise if there is a leadership contest in the next year or so (as seems likely if Leave wins), and most of the others are also Remainers.SeanT said:The idea of Osborne as leader is laughable. He must surely see that.
Difficult to see a REMAINIAC winning in any event.
People are skeptical of Boris, Gove is damaged by the Queen thingy, so.... who? If not BoJo?
IDS redux?0 -
Hahaha. There is no socialist hubris like that seen when they lead 1% in 1 poll; a situation that would likely result in socialists still not being in power.JWisemann said:Which wise sage said these prescient words back in September?
JWisemann said:Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.
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This is even better than The Euro Sausage.
I'm crying with laughter, what are they doing?!?0 -
It is unfortunate that all the good measures, and there were many, are being overshadowed by GO insensitivity over PIP. I have no doubt they will be reversed before Tuesday's vote but if I was a betting man(which I am not) the odds on GO being moved post 23rd June must be shortening (I think that's the right way of describing the odds but I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong)MP_SE said:
We can only hope.Mortimer said:
Those 50 letters might well be coming in before June 23rd...SeanT said:
Oh god. Tampons. Really? This is some great victory, or is this a joke?MarkHopkins said:
What a desperate bunch of shysters leads the Tory party. Just a ghastly busload of lying twits. Cameron is the worst of the lot. GET RID.
Cameron and Osborne are running the party into the ground.
Another shambles of a budget. No doubt Osborne will backtrack on the cuts to disability payments in the next few weeks.0 -
Spot the pattern:
ComRes
CON -3
LAB +2
ICM
CON -3
LAB +4
YouGov
CON -4
LAB +4
This is not a fluke.0 -
That's novelty for you. Just imagine it, more people support Corbynite Labour that Cameroon Tories, even with all the Tory civil war and crap budget that seems insane, right?TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
But that enough people claim that, even accepting we are a long way from an election, it still makes one pause in shock. It couldn't be, surely...0 -
We're not in 1953 Alabama.glw said:
Your party is still lead by Godless terrorist-sympathising Marxists. Actually getting people to vote for that shower in 2020 will prove more challenging than you appear to think.JWisemann said:Which wise sage said these prescient words back in September?
JWisemann said:Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.
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*cough*SeanT said:
Seems to me that the Tory party has fallen apart ever since Cameron brought back the dreadful "deal"TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
When historians look at British political history I suspect they will date the peak of Tory hubris to the day before the Deal, when all seemed sunlit uplands: Corbyn as the feeble joke enemy, the Scot Nats defeated, the Lib Dems humiliated, UKIP at bay, the EU referendum a shoo-in.
And now, here we are.
I expect the Tories to win in 2020 if Corbyn stays leader, but the Tories won't be this cocky again for a generation. Or more.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/15/antifrank-on-how-the-conservatives-will-lose-their-hegemony/0 -
Outlier?TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
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Well sure, but they had a real tough time in the latter half of 2015 - even if this is a false dawn, and the Tory civil war is not as destructive as it appears it will be on their electoral prospects at least, Corbynistas and sympathising Labourites (that is to say, more Corbynites) deserve a little celebratory time.Mortimer said:
Hahaha. There is no socialist hubris like that seen when they lead 1% in 1 poll; a situation that would likely result in socialists still not being in power.JWisemann said:Which wise sage said these prescient words back in September?
JWisemann said:Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.
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OutliersSpeedy said:Spot the pattern:
ComRes
CON -3
LAB +2
ICM
CON -3
LAB +4
YouGov
CON -4
LAB +4
This is not a fluke.0 -
Oh dear. Osborne made me leave the Tory party in 2012 and he's now given Labour supporters who actually care about elections their first happy time in yonks. Shame that they don't have a team who could capitalise on that. Real shame.
Second boy arrived yesterday, by the way. Home and well so all good!0 -
I don't know. Looking at the supplementaries, it is fixable for the Tories.bigjohnowls said:
Outlier?TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
Think Omnishambles budget redux.0 -
yeah but the stupid cameroon twats will trade on Jezza in the hope that playing scaremonger will keep them in power. It wont. it's worth voting leave just to force the lazy numpties to actually get some policies and go looking for voters.SeanT said:
Seems to me that the Tory party has fallen apart ever since Cameron brought back the dreadful "deal"TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
When historians look at British political history I suspect they will date the peak of Tory hubris to the day before the Deal, when all seemed sunlit uplands: Corbyn as the feeble joke enemy, the Scot Nats defeated, the Lib Dems humiliated, UKIP at bay, the EU referendum a shoo-in.
And now, here we are.
I expect the Tories to win in 2020 if Corbyn stays leader, but the Tories won't be this cocky again for a generation. Or more.0 -
Don't worry someone will soon be along to tell us that this is all part of Dave's brilliant plan to dock us in the EU, and that if we were only clever enough we would be able to see if for ourselves.SeanT said:
Seems to me that the Tory party has fallen apart ever since Cameron brought back the dreadful "deal"TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
When historians look at British political history I suspect they will date the peak of Tory hubris to the day before the Deal, when all seemed sunlit uplands: Corbyn as the feeble joke enemy, the Scot Nats defeated, the Lib Dems humiliated, UKIP at bay, the EU referendum a shoo-in.
And now, here we are.
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No gripping local by-elections tonight?
(LibDems and Labour doing well in those too)0 -
I wouldnt expect these figures if there was an election tomorrow, though the trend for the week is pretty clear (could be reversed next week, who knows) - I'd expect the Tories to get a bit less than at the election and Labour a bit more, and for this to be enough to tip the Tories into an untenable minority government (noone will be willing to join them in coalition for the next generation or two after their duplicitous treatment of the Lib Dems after coalition, Labour after the Better Together campaign and Outters after the EU Ref).
After all the relentless hyperbolic propaganda against Corbyn's very moderate Labour, it's pretty funny to see them surpass the Tories in popularity, though.0 -
Three women candidates -SeanT said:The idea of Osborne as leader is laughable. He must surely see that.
Difficult to see a REMAINIAC winning in any event.
People are skeptical of Boris, Gove is damaged by the Queen thingy, so.... who? If not BoJo?
Penny Mordaunt,Andrea Leadsom and Nus Ghani.0 -
You all know my feelings on Cammo and Co, but YouGov is a company that I will never trust again to conduct a fair poll. Unfortunately, they are not the only ones tainted by their actions prior to the GE last May.0
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Congratulations you and your family.Lucian_Fletcher said:Oh dear. Osborne made me leave the Tory party in 2012 and he's now given Labour supporters who actually care about elections their first happy time in yonks. Shame that they don't have a team who could capitalise on that. Real shame.
Second boy arrived yesterday, by the way. Home and well so all good!0 -
The natural political balance in this country has moved on such that the EU is now desperately unpopular and it clearly wants a rational PM, and sensible government, to credibly lead it to Leave.SeanT said:
Seems to me that the Tory party has fallen apart ever since Cameron brought back the dreadful "deal"TheScreamingEagles said:I've not see so much interest in a poll since the YouGov poll during the Indyref that put Yes ahead.
When historians look at British political history I suspect they will date the peak of Tory hubris to the day before the Deal, when all seemed sunlit uplands: Corbyn as the feeble joke enemy, the Scot Nats defeated, the Lib Dems humiliated, UKIP at bay, the EU referendum a shoo-in.
And now, here we are.
I expect the Tories to win in 2020 if Corbyn stays leader, but the Tories won't be this cocky again for a generation. Or more.
Instead the government is trying to force us to Remain through exploiting the innate small c-conservatism of the British people, and ramping up Project Fear to the n-th degree; a strategy in which it will probably succeed.
But only temporarily. It is defying gravity, and it will have repercussions as any appeal to give an awful marriage one last try does. And the individual that did (in this case, Cameron) is never thanked for it.
He had his chance at History, and he bottled it.0 -
I was at my cousins wedding tonight. Was driving and turned down the Champagne. Turns out I should have booked a Taxi home post YG!!kle4 said:
Well sure, but they had a real tough time in the latter half of 2015 - even if this is a false dawn, and the Tory civil war is not as destructive as it appears it will be on their electoral prospects at least, Corbynistas and sympathising Labourites (that is to say, more Corbynites) deserve a little celebratory time.Mortimer said:
Hahaha. There is no socialist hubris like that seen when they lead 1% in 1 poll; a situation that would likely result in socialists still not being in power.JWisemann said:Which wise sage said these prescient words back in September?
JWisemann said:Enjoy your hubris Tories. 2015 is as good as it gets for the conservatives in the 21st century - a wafer thin majority, the first in decades, and probably the last, and you'll be spending most of it ripping yourselves apart. So have your fun.
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Of course the government is becoming more unpopular - We're nearly a year away from the general election and four away from the next one. That's what happens (ALWAYS)Speedy said:Spot the pattern:
ComRes
CON -3
LAB +2
ICM
CON -3
LAB +4
YouGov
CON -4
LAB +4
This is not a fluke.
Fundamentally though, were a general election really to be held tomorrow does anybody honestly think it would result in anything other than a thumping win for the Conservatives and catastrophe for Corbyn's Labour?
That said, Osborne is a disaster waiting to happen and this latest screw up with attacking the disabled is beyond belief really....
Lab need to ditch Corbyn and get someone credible pronto because 2020 is winnable (especially if Con are mad enough to give Boy George the leadership)0 -
Not a fluke. Bleeding obvious. And it is Cameron's fault. He needs to shut up and back the blue side the the Liberal elite. Zac only has 10% chance. Cameron ha skilled him, perhaps deliberately. But Cameron likely to face leadership challenge for his dis-loyalty to the party.bigjohnowls said:
OutliersSpeedy said:Spot the pattern:
ComRes
CON -3
LAB +2
ICM
CON -3
LAB +4
YouGov
CON -4
LAB +4
This is not a fluke.0 -
Very moderate?JWisemann said:I wouldnt expect these figures if there was an election tomorrow, though the trend for the week is pretty clear (could be reversed next week, who knows) - I'd expect the Tories to get a bit less than at the election and Labour a bit more, and for this to be enough to tip the Tories into an untenable minority government (noone will be willing to join them in coalition for the next generation or two after their duplicitous treatment of the Lib Dems after coalition, Labour after the Better Together campaign and Outters after the EU Ref).
After all the relentless hyperbolic propaganda against Corbyn's very moderate Labour, it's pretty funny to see them surpass the Tories in popularity, though.
Keep the jokes coming!0 -
Why did they even bother proposing the cuts to disability payments?
It's obvious they won't go through.
I think we're now at the stage where no benefits can be cut at all - in cash terms. All they can do is freeze everything - which is largely what they are doing - and then let inflation erode their real value.0 -
The Tory women are extremely impressive.Tykejohnno said:
Three women candidates -SeanT said:The idea of Osborne as leader is laughable. He must surely see that.
Difficult to see a REMAINIAC winning in any event.
People are skeptical of Boris, Gove is damaged by the Queen thingy, so.... who? If not BoJo?
Penny Mordaunt,Andrea Leadsom and Nus Ghani.0 -
I see that we are in an unusual, perhaps unique, position tonight, where Roger's specialist experience would provide an unparalleled insight into the the central political development of the day.0
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Congratulations.Lucian_Fletcher said:Oh dear. Osborne made me leave the Tory party in 2012 and he's now given Labour supporters who actually care about elections their first happy time in yonks. Shame that they don't have a team who could capitalise on that. Real shame.
Second boy arrived yesterday, by the way. Home and well so all good!0 -
Congrats Lucian.Lucian_Fletcher said:Oh dear. Osborne made me leave the Tory party in 2012 and he's now given Labour supporters who actually care about elections their first happy time in yonks. Shame that they don't have a team who could capitalise on that. Real shame.
Second boy arrived yesterday, by the way. Home and well so all good!
Right, must head off to bed. For tomorrow, I rise at dawn.0 -
Funny though it is (though as I've often reflected, I recall even such as Dan Hodges predicting pre-Corbyn election that under him Labour still would lead at some point), surely it's integral to the Corbyn brand appeal that he is very much not moderate? Not a raving loony as his opponents portray, of course, but I thought he was supposed to be radical and visionary and all that cobbler.JWisemann said:
After all the relentless hyperbolic propaganda against Corbyn's very moderate Labour, it's pretty funny to see them surpass the Tories in popularity, though.0 -
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Congrats Lucian.0
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Project "Save Corbyn" going tremendously well
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