politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Tru
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I'm calling it, >5% lead, >10% counted (test 7).oxfordsimon said:
Sanders is now 41k behind... not ideal direction of travelAndyJS said:Illinois is continuing to look interesting for Sanders, just 34,000 votes behind at present.
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It should do, if that's the final result. I don't think it's a true loophole, as the delegates are bound [unless they are elected as uncommitted].TheWhiteRabbit said:
Rod you may know better but with the "loophole" system that GreenPapers descirbe, doesn't 42/22/22 produce close to WTA for Trump?RodCrosby said:
Kasich edging for 2nd place there...TheWhiteRabbit said:Trump holds >5% lead with >105 counted, I call Illinois (test 5).
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With a majority of republicans hating their own party it will be difficult to convince them.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Just in any election, the vast majority of Republicans will vote Republican, regardless of nominee, even if they opposed him in the primaries.Speedy said:
Nope, that 1/4 takes orders from Trump.TheWhiteRabbit said:
They're mistaken. They will vote for them, when push comes to shove. They have to rationalise their choice for somebody else at present, they will be "convinced" by the chosn nominee later.Speedy said:
It doesn't matter anymore, look at the sore state of the Republicans.dugarbandier said:
has the email thing gone away?Speedy said:And this is the official end of the Sanders campaign, typically it was over after Iowa and Nevada.
The Democrats come out of their primary almost united, the Republicans still in a nasty civil war.
Winner:Democrats.
Even with Kasich 1/4 of Republican voters will refuse to vote for their nominee.
The Republicans lost the GE after their factions declared total war on each other, sometime after Nevada.
The NeverTrump is a classic example of party infighting at it's extremes.0 -
Sanders has said he is going on and will likely stay on until at least the end of April when Trump and Clinton wrap up the nomination by winning New York and PennsylvaniaSpeedy said:And this is the official end of the Sanders campaign, typically it was over after Iowa and Nevada.
The Democrats come out of their primary almost united, the Republicans still in a nasty civil war.
Winner:Democrats.0 -
Cruz 100% of the vote, 274 votes in Winnebago county !0
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Wonder if Sanders will suspend, the maths is too much for Bernie now for sure.0
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Well i mean I had to pick something. 40(T)/26(C)/22(K)/10(R) looks a more likely result at presentRodCrosby said:
It should do, if that's the final result. I don't think it's a true loophole, as the delegates are bound [unless they are elected as uncommitted].TheWhiteRabbit said:
Rod you may know better but with the "loophole" system that GreenPapers descirbe, doesn't 42/22/22 produce close to WTA for Trump?RodCrosby said:
Kasich edging for 2nd place there...TheWhiteRabbit said:Trump holds >5% lead with >105 counted, I call Illinois (test 5).
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Hillary is 4 years older than Maggie was when she left Downing Street.0
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I'm calling Illinois for Trump.0
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Santos would have been a woeful President.Plato_Says said:The GOP really needed Matt Santos
oxfordsimon said:
Bit like Arnie Vinick and his broken hand all over again.williamglenn said:Hillary sounds like she'll lose her voice before the campaign is over.
(The West Wing is real... isn't it?!)0 -
Is it me or have the exit polls understated Trump in Mo and Il ?0
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Interesting how much they made of McCain's age 8 years ago...and now we have Sander, Clinton, Trump...not exactly spring chickens.AndyJS said:Hillary is 4 years older than Maggie was when she left Downing Street.
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Isn't it mathematically impossible for Kasich to win now?0
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They're dismissing Sam Wang's analysis on CNN. He knows more than the lot of them put together !
Ohio could well turn out strategically good for Mr Trump in the end !0 -
Is there anywhere doing a vote breakdown by congressional district in Missouri?0
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Stars & Stripes forever.
Here we go, here we go, here we go....0 -
Well he needs to win 90% of outstanding delegates, so practically he can't get the nomination in the primaries, only if it's handed to him by the establishment at the convention.Plato_Says said:Isn't it mathematically impossible for Kasich to win now?
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ABC coverage is amateur hour. A $5 set and idiot commentary.Pulpstar said:
They're dismissing Sam Wang's analysis on CNN. He knows more than the lot of them put together !
Ohio could well turn out strategically good for Mr Trump in the end !0 -
Agree, people rally around eventually.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Just in any election, the vast majority of Republicans will vote Republican, regardless of nominee, even if they opposed him in the primaries.Speedy said:
Nope, that 1/4 takes orders from Trump.TheWhiteRabbit said:
They're mistaken. They will vote for them, when push comes to shove. They have to rationalise their choice for somebody else at present, they will be "convinced" by the chosn nominee later.Speedy said:
It doesn't matter anymore, look at the sore state of the Republicans.dugarbandier said:
has the email thing gone away?Speedy said:And this is the official end of the Sanders campaign, typically it was over after Iowa and Nevada.
The Democrats come out of their primary almost united, the Republicans still in a nasty civil war.
Winner:Democrats.
Even with Kasich 1/4 of Republican voters will refuse to vote for their nominee.
Trump being powered by Chicago but he seems to be doing well across Illinois.0 -
GP's having a go...TheWhiteRabbit said:Is there anywhere doing a vote breakdown by congressional district in Missouri?
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R0 -
Kasich speaking promising to pull together not split apart0
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I'm surprised by the call in favour of Kasich in Ohio. He's 43,000 ahead with possibly a million still to be counted.0
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Nobody in any primary has come back from such a deficit.AndyJS said:I'm surprised by the call in favour of Kasich in Ohio. He's 43,000 ahead with possibly a million still to be counted.
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It'd be a corker if he didn't win now, imagine the meltdownsAndyJS said:
I'm surprised by the call in favour of Kasich in Ohio. He's 43,000 ahead with possibly a million still to be counted.
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Has anyone ever come back from a national delegate deficit behind TWO candidates as Kasich ?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Nobody in any primary has come back from such a deficit.AndyJS said:I'm surprised by the call in favour of Kasich in Ohio. He's 43,000 ahead with possibly a million still to be counted.
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Versus 538 targets, it could well be:
Florida 99 (-)
Ohio 0 (-66)
Marianas 9 (+9)
Missouri 43 (-)
North Carolina 29 (+3)
Illinois 60 (+21)
Leaving Trump -33 down on the day, trails by ~13. And Rubio out the race means Trump can make that back easily.0 -
CBS
In OH Dem primary @HillaryClinton won 59% white women; @BernieSanders won 59% white men: https://t.co/BUqYBYsrIM https://t.co/WuMhEPj9Cf0 -
Missouri is going to be a nail-biter, CNN has revised their exit poll to Cruz 41.4 Trump 41.1 .0
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Amazing Sousa wrote 150 marches; only 5 are memorable...0
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Results so far show Trump with a 4% lead, enough to win 43 of the states 53 delegates.Speedy said:Missouri is going to be a nail-biter, CNN has revised their exit poll to Cruz 41.4 Trump 41.1 .
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Lets see.TheWhiteRabbit said:Versus 538 targets, it could well be:
Florida 99 (-)
Ohio 0 (-66)
Marianas 9 (+9)
Missouri 43 (-)
North Carolina 29 (+3)
Illinois 60 (+21)
Leaving Trump -33 down on the day, trails by ~13. And Rubio out the race means Trump can make that back easily.
If Trump wins Missouri and sweeps all the CD in Illinois he might salvage the night.0 -
The Thunderer!0
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CNN
Illinois
GOP 13% in
Trump 41%
Kasich 24%
Cruz 23%
Dems 41% in
Clinton 54%
Sanders 46%
Missouri
GOP 5% in
Trump 42%
Cruz 34%
Kasich 10%
Dems 4% in
Clinton 53%
Sanders 45%
North Carolina
GOP 41%in
Trump 40%
Cruz 37%
Kasich 13%0 -
Logically he should, but Hillary might want him to stay in for a while. While he's fighting her, Trump and Cruz won't start fully attacking her. And he's bringing in a certain section of voters that she needs to win in November.Pulpstar said:Wonder if Sanders will suspend, the maths is too much for Bernie now for sure.
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Reuters says Obama is announcing a Supreme Court pick "as early as" tomorrow https://t.co/kzV2GJPsk00
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Blasted, Missouri is reporting most results only after 100% completion.
This might take until the morning.0 -
I know that Kasich deserves his moment in the sun - but brevity is better than this rambling. He will never be POTUS - unless he gets on a ticket and the other guy dies0
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Bizarre speech from Kasich about a widow's dress.0
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Lets hope we won't, he maybe a smiling guy but he's as nuts as G.W.Bush on foreign policy.oxfordsimon said:I know that Kasich deserves his moment in the sun - but brevity is better than this rambling. He will never be POTUS - unless he gets on a ticket and the other guy dies
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As he should. He is in office until January 20th 2017 - he has to show a lead on this (even if the Republicans block it)Plato_Says said:Reuters says Obama is announcing a Supreme Court pick "as early as" tomorrow https://t.co/kzV2GJPsk0
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So in conclusion Trump wins Florida, knocking out Rubio and North Carolina and probably Illinois and maybe Missouri. Kasich wins his home state and he and Cruz will go on for another month before Trump seals it with wins in New York and Pennsylvania
On the Democratic side looks like Clinton has won 3 out of 5 states and maybe all 5 so effectively seals the nomination although Sanders too stays in until the big NE states vote
Goodnight0 -
From 538:
The Best News Of The Night For Trump So Far
All right, this is going to get nerdy, but it’s absolutely critical. There are very few GOP voters in Cook County, Illinois (Chicago), but the best news of the night for Trump so far might be that he’s winning it handily. That’s because there are three delegates at stake in each of Illinois’s 18 districts, regardless of how blue or red they are. In fact, Trump could win three delegates from a Chicago district with as few as 5,000 votes but then collect zero delegates from a Cruz-won downstate district with as many as 50,000 votes.
In early returns, Trump is taking 44 percent in Cook County to 23 percent for Kasich and 21 percent for Cruz. If that holds, he could win a bigger delegate margin out of the city of Chicago than he would win with a 15 percent margin of victory in the entire state of North Carolina. It’s a fascinating quirk of the Republican National Committee’s delegate allocation rules, and it wasn’t simply an accident or sign of provocation that Trump planned a Chicago rally last week.The Best News Of The Night For Trump So Far
All right, this is going to get nerdy, but it’s absolutely critical. There are very few GOP voters in Cook County, Illinois (Chicago), but the best news of the night for Trump so far might be that he’s winning it handily. That’s because there are three delegates at stake in each of Illinois’s 18 districts, regardless of how blue or red they are. In fact, Trump could win three delegates from a Chicago district with as few as 5,000 votes but then collect zero delegates from a Cruz-won downstate district with as many as 50,000 votes.
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Kasich off to PA next.0
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I don't udnerstand, Trump's got 70,000 votes in Cook County.Pulpstar said:From 538:
The Best News Of The Night For Trump So Far
All right, this is going to get nerdy, but it’s absolutely critical. There are very few GOP voters in Cook County, Illinois (Chicago), but the best news of the night for Trump so far might be that he’s winning it handily. That’s because there are three delegates at stake in each of Illinois’s 18 districts, regardless of how blue or red they are. In fact, Trump could win three delegates from a Chicago district with as few as 5,000 votes but then collect zero delegates from a Cruz-won downstate district with as many as 50,000 votes.
In early returns, Trump is taking 44 percent in Cook County to 23 percent for Kasich and 21 percent for Cruz. If that holds, he could win a bigger delegate margin out of the city of Chicago than he would win with a 15 percent margin of victory in the entire state of North Carolina. It’s a fascinating quirk of the Republican National Committee’s delegate allocation rules, and it wasn’t simply an accident or sign of provocation that Trump planned a Chicago rally last week.The Best News Of The Night For Trump So Far
All right, this is going to get nerdy, but it’s absolutely critical. There are very few GOP voters in Cook County, Illinois (Chicago), but the best news of the night for Trump so far might be that he’s winning it handily. That’s because there are three delegates at stake in each of Illinois’s 18 districts, regardless of how blue or red they are. In fact, Trump could win three delegates from a Chicago district with as few as 5,000 votes but then collect zero delegates from a Cruz-won downstate district with as many as 50,000 votes.0 -
PA? On April 26th? Not NY a week earlier?Pulpstar said:Kasich off to PA next.
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How close is Donald Trump to the GOP nomination? Here's our real-time tracker. https://t.co/mvjJEeGevq https://t.co/3olAnmg4tR0
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Missouri is neck-and-neck on both sides.0
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Trump projected to win North Carolina0
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PA looks very good for Trump, those counties bordering PA in OH are almost 50% Trump. Indiana also looking good from the bordering counties in OH and IL, when one discounts the home candidate factor for Kasich in the OH counties.0
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"Laufet, Brüder, eure Bahn, freudig, wie ein Held zum Siegen!"
Who is running the Trump live feeds?0 -
Let's not forget that's over a month away. Lot of time for things to change.LondonBob said:PA looks very good for Trump, those counties bordering PA in OH are almost 50% Trump. Indiana also looking good from the bordering counties in OH and IL, when one discounts the home candidate factor for Kasich in the OH counties.
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I am not sure Sanders supporters quite get the logic flaw in his argument....corporate America must pay a minimum wage of $15/hr, because nobody can live on $9/hr, but at the same time corporate America must make all their good in America, where the jobs will have to pay $15/hr (rather than a $1/hr in China)...so the cost of goods will be much higher, so the cost of living will be higher, so people won't be able to live on $15/hr...0
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Sanders speaking makes clear has come along way in ten months and he will fight on telling the truth and his campaign continues0
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Martin Bormannwilliamglenn said:"Laufet, Brüder, eure Bahn, freudig, wie ein Held zum Siegen!"
Who is running the Trump live feeds?
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He's got them so far: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/missouri/ difficult to see Trump getting less than 38/53 here (i.e. losing 3 congressional districts)Speedy said:
Cruz will run it with the S.W part of Missouri and the region around it's capital, Trump will need numbers and margins in Kansas City and St.Louis.AndyJS said:Missouri is neck-and-neck on both sides.
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Have a whole bunch of Bernie Sanders supporters picked up the Kasich ballot in Ohio ?!0
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That's the problem for Trump, from now till April 19th he will only win Arizona.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not forget that's over a month away. Lot of time for things to change.LondonBob said:PA looks very good for Trump, those counties bordering PA in OH are almost 50% Trump. Indiana also looking good from the bordering counties in OH and IL, when one discounts the home candidate factor for Kasich in the OH counties.
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AP projects Trump wins Illinois0
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I wish I got a $1 for every time Sander's says the word "billion"....I would be at least a millionaire...0
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Sanders is telling his truth - but not the truth. His arm-waving and random pointing can continue as long as he likes. He is not going to win (or get any position in a HRC administration. He can disappear back to Vermont and all 32 of the residents there.HYUFD said:Sanders speaking makes clear has come along way in ten months and he will fight on telling the truth and his campaign continues
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ditto Trump actuallyFrancisUrquhart said:I wish I got a $1 for every time Sander's says the word "billion"....I would be at least a millionaire...
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Nah drinking game buzz words for Trump is "GET'EM OUT"....Wanderer said:
ditto Trump actuallyFrancisUrquhart said:I wish I got a $1 for every time Sander's says the word "billion"....I would be at least a millionaire...
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He'll win Wisconsin and apart from that there's only Utah and American Samoa.Speedy said:
That's the problem for Trump, from now till April 19th he will only win Arizona.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not forget that's over a month away. Lot of time for things to change.LondonBob said:PA looks very good for Trump, those counties bordering PA in OH are almost 50% Trump. Indiana also looking good from the bordering counties in OH and IL, when one discounts the home candidate factor for Kasich in the OH counties.
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Finally CNN project Illinois for Trump.0
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That's a great picture of Trump CNN has.0
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Missouri (Dems) at ~10% counted, lead is less than 5% - no call.0
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Florida is by far the most populous state tonight, so why is everywhere else taking much longer to count?0
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I'm seeing 25% counted.TheWhiteRabbit said:Missouri (Dems) at ~10% counted, lead is less than 5% - no call.
Trump 3% ahead, Cruz needs to be 1% ahead in the rest. Most counties have Trump ahead at the moment.
Update: trending more Trump...0 -
Does make me chuckle when all candidates bang on about some family experience of being an immigrant....99% of Americans are from immigrant families...0
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I would be surprised if Trump won the Democratic Primary, TBH.RodCrosby said:
I'm seeing 25% counted.TheWhiteRabbit said:Missouri (Dems) at ~10% counted, lead is less than 5% - no call.
Trump 3% ahead, Cruz needs to be 1% ahead in the rest. Most counties have Trump ahead at the moment.
I don't know why one is stuck 10% counted behind the other, though.0 -
NC called for Trump.0
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Dems though: Sanders narrowly ahead with 14% in.RodCrosby said:
I'm seeing 25% counted.TheWhiteRabbit said:Missouri (Dems) at ~10% counted, lead is less than 5% - no call.
Trump 3% ahead, Cruz needs to be 1% ahead in the rest. Most counties have Trump ahead at the moment.
Update: trending more Trump...0 -
Missouri Trump now 3% ahead
Illinois Trump on 40%0 -
CNN projects Trump wins N.Carolina.0
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The discrepancy between Missouri and Ohio is mahoosive on the Democrat side.
Sanders supporters sinking their own man by picking up the Kasich ballot lol0 -
I can't call Illinois yet for Hillary since most of Chicago is not in yet.0
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Trump does appear to be too far ahead in Missouri now.
Kasich and Cruz, two candidates you would want to be up against.0 -
Trump's warm up chap is on, so the Donald will be on soon...0
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Trump talking now.0
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er kommt on Sky0
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Trump thanks the N.Mariana Islands Governor, says that 9 delegates is a lot, mentions the yougov poll that gives him 53%.0
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I am, she leads in Chicago with 25% counted.Speedy said:I can't call Illinois yet for Hillary since most of Chicago is not in yet.
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BBC headline: Setback for Trump in White House race0
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Ivanka is having a baby since Iowa voted.0
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The BBC newsroom is going to need a massive amount of therapy to cope with a Trump win. They just don't know how to handle such a prospect.williamglenn said:BBC headline: Setback for Trump in White House race
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BBC displaying same level of understanding of foreign politics as with the German elections?williamglenn said:BBC headline: Setback for Trump in White House race
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CBS coverage is pretty good and nice results graphics http://www.cbsnews.com/live/0
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If she'd leading in Chicago then I'm also calling it for Hillary.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I am, she leads in Chicago with 25% counted.Speedy said:I can't call Illinois yet for Hillary since most of Chicago is not in yet.
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Yeah, he was missing a bulb on his chandelier...williamglenn said:BBC headline: Setback for Trump in White House race
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What you mean there won't be 100;s of champagne bottle cluttering the corridors ala 1997 and 2008?oxfordsimon said:
The BBC newsroom is going to need a massive amount of therapy to cope with a Trump win. They just don't know how to handle such a prospect.williamglenn said:BBC headline: Setback for Trump in White House race
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