politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Tru

Getting very psyched for this

Who is this Ted Cruz guy, I have only heard of "Lyin Ted"...

Osborne will admit he has broken 2 out of the 3 fiscal rules he set down after last year’s election #Budget2016
https://next.ft.com/content/f311157e-ead6-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4#ixzz430RzZJBm …

Speedy said:

Seeing pictures of Florida ballots with Trump omitted.
http://i.imgur.com/sllN7bJ.jpg
The official explanation is that if you are not a registered republican then you can vote for any other republican but Trump.

Says "SAMPLE" on it?

Wanderer said:

Speedy said:

Seeing pictures of Florida ballots with Trump omitted.
http://i.imgur.com/sllN7bJ.jpg
The official explanation is that if you are not a registered republican then you can vote for any other republican but Trump.

Says "SAMPLE" on it?

You're correct, it does say SAMPLE.
The person complaining probably didn't realize.

Speedy said:

First Exit Poll leaks:

https://twitter.com/DavidShuster/status/709844940713553920

Why is this such a shock? Rahm Emanuel's challenger was Hispanic. Hispanics ran hard against Rahm. Sanders has campaigned on Clinton = Rahm

RodCrosby said:

The nuclear option. GOP to go third-party?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/top-conservatives-gather-to-plot-third-party-run-against-trump-220786

I've heard and read and posted those stories here for a long time.

The consensus among the anti-Trumps is that they break off and nominate Rick Perry as an independent conservative, if they fail to stop Trump winning the GOP nomination.
It gives an idea of desperation and stupidity that is prevalent among the GOP establishment.

Speedy said:

First Exit Poll leaks:

https://twitter.com/DavidShuster/status/709844940713553920

LOL! Just after I bet on Hillary.

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT: If we assume that Remain are actually right and that three million jobs are dependent upon our trade agreement with the EU (1/5th of the world's economy), then if we join the EEA we have the potential to keep those three million jobs and create up to 12 million more by signing new agreements with the remaining 80% of the globe.

The case for leaving the EU rests on sovereignty.

The idea that China or the US is suddenly going to give us trade deals unavailable to anyone else in the world is fantasy.

Ah a sane voice !

You won't last long in the EU debate :-)

justin124 said:

On the eve of the Budget I have just come across this interesting piece!http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/03/13/the-conservatives-have-been-the-biggest-borrowers-over-the-last-70-years/

No s**t Sherlock. When you inherit an economy that's so screwed up it has an enormous deficit of course you'll end up borrowing. That's the legacy of Labour getting kicked out of office when it wreck things again rather than being trust to fix their mess.

justin124 said:

On the eve of the Budget I have just come across this interesting piece!http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/03/13/the-conservatives-have-been-the-biggest-borrowers-over-the-last-70-years/

Richard Murphy.....Corbyn's "economic guru"...yawn...

Could the CSU be tempted ?

The CSU are arguing hard with Merkel on the migration crisis. One statistic lurking among the analysis from the German regionals was 65-75% of AfD voters said they would consider voting CSU if they were standing in their Land.

I wonder if Seehofer might consider standing in all 18 Lander and not just Bavaria,


http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/gabriel-seehofer-faellt-merkel-bei-tuerkei-verhandlung-in-den-ruecken-14126961.html

MikeK said:

https://twitter.com/missloren60/status/709845863825276928
Germany taking the piss out of Britain? Never!

It was a very poor imitation of Jon Stewart.

CNN GOP Exit Poll leaks:

Betrayed by party leadership.

N.C 56%
OHIO 57%

Outsider

N.C 54
OHIO 50

Seems good for Trump.
Looks like a 33% floor for him in Ohio, slightly higher for Trump in N.C.

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

On the eve of the Budget I have just come across this interesting piece!http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/03/13/the-conservatives-have-been-the-biggest-borrowers-over-the-last-70-years/

No s**t Sherlock. When you inherit an economy that's so screwed up it has an enormous deficit of course you'll end up borrowing. That's the legacy of Labour getting kicked out of office when it wreck things again rather than being trust to fix their mess.

But he has allowed for the financial crash by also looking at the period pre-2007.

Because he narcissistically assumed that the most recent crash was the only one.

Did he allow for the sound finances that Brown inherited as opposed to the dreadful ones bequeathed?
Did he allow for the terrible state inherited after the winter of discontent and the IMF?

And so on and so forth.

Breaking News.

Someone has sent white flour to Rubio's HQ.
People running in panic.

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/Couranto/status/709852258553430016

Let me guess, he will threaten to direct his supporters to vote against the senators, congressmen and governors that will support an independent run.

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT: If we assume that Remain are actually right and that three million jobs are dependent upon our trade agreement with the EU (1/5th of the world's economy), then if we join the EEA we have the potential to keep those three million jobs and create up to 12 million more by signing new agreements with the remaining 80% of the globe.

The case for leaving the EU rests on sovereignty.

The idea that China or the US is suddenly going to give us trade deals unavailable to anyone else in the world is fantasy.

Australia has a free trade agreement with China and is much closer than the EU to signing one with the US too. Switzerland has one with China.

TIPP is better than TPP for two reasons: 1. ISDS tribunals under TIPP are (according to the last draft I saw) not held in secret; 2. Australia (and other TPP signatories) are treaty bound to keep their intellectual property laws in lock-step with the US.

The Swiss deal is not a great deal. Under its terms, Chinese companies are allowed to own banking licenses in Switzerland, and sell financial services products there. They can also buy Swiss banks, insurance companies and other financial service providers. In return, the Swiss can buy up to 49.9% of Chinese banks. The Swiss government is removing the tariffs on about 85% of Chinese imports to Switzerland. In return, tariffs on Swiss drugs are eliminated, and the tariff on Swiss watches going into China is cut from 12.5% to 7.5%. Over 10 years.

In fact, both the TPP and the China deal are classic examples of big countries bullying little ones in trade negotiations.

By contrast, the EFTA deals are largely excellent. It has established deals with all the same places as the EU, plus Canada, and the GCC.

We are a significantly bigger player than the Swiss and if we join the EFTA then the EFTA would be considerably bigger. But without having to appeal to the lowest common denominator of French farmers etc

MikeK said:

Speedy said:

CNN GOP Exit Poll leaks:

Betrayed by party leadership.

N.C 56%
OHIO 57%

Outsider

N.C 54
OHIO 50

Seems good for Trump.

Very leaky, but if it sticks then it could be "A Clean Sweep" for Trump, as the old submariners used to say.

Prepare to hang out your broom from the turret.

Well Kasich is not an Outsider, however Insiders get 43% in Ohio, since Rubio gets 0% I think almost all of it is Kasich vote.
That means that Kasich has a floor of 35% in Ohio, Trump will win only if he gets more than 80% of the Outsider vote.

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

On the eve of the Budget I have just come across this interesting piece!http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/03/13/the-conservatives-have-been-the-biggest-borrowers-over-the-last-70-years/

No s**t Sherlock. When you inherit an economy that's so screwed up it has an enormous deficit of course you'll end up borrowing. That's the legacy of Labour getting kicked out of office when it wreck things again rather than being trust to fix their mess.

But he has allowed for the financial crash by also looking at the period pre-2007.

Because he narcissistically assumed that the most recent crash was the only one.

Did he allow for the sound finances that Brown inherited as opposed to the dreadful ones bequeathed?
Did he allow for the terrible state inherited after the winter of discontent and the IMF?

And so on and so forth.

The dreadful state bequeathed by Norman Lamont in 1993? Or Anthony Barber in 1974? He will also have taken account of the Budget surplus bequeathed by Roy Jenkins in 1970 and Hugh Gaitskell in 1951.

I must have missed Labour taking over in 93.

Ohio exit poll, 47% evangelicals.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT: If we assume that Remain are actually right and that three million jobs are dependent upon our trade agreement with the EU (1/5th of the world's economy), then if we join the EEA we have the potential to keep those three million jobs and create up to 12 million more by signing new agreements with the remaining 80% of the globe.

The case for leaving the EU rests on sovereignty.

The idea that China or the US is suddenly going to give us trade deals unavailable to anyone else in the world is fantasy.

Australia has a free trade agreement with China and is much closer than the EU to signing one with the US too. Switzerland has one with China.

TIPP is better than TPP for two reasons: 1. ISDS tribunals under TIPP are (according to the last draft I saw) not held in secret; 2. Australia (and other TPP signatories) are treaty bound to keep their intellectual property laws in lock-step with the US.

The Swiss deal is not a great deal. Under its terms, Chinese companies are allowed to own banking licenses in Switzerland, and sell financial services products there. They can also buy Swiss banks, insurance companies and other financial service providers. In return, the Swiss can buy up to 49.9% of Chinese banks. The Swiss government is removing the tariffs on about 85% of Chinese imports to Switzerland. In return, tariffs on Swiss drugs are eliminated, and the tariff on Swiss watches going into China is cut from 12.5% to 7.5%. Over 10 years.

In fact, both the TPP and the China deal are classic examples of big countries bullying little ones in trade negotiations.

By contrast, the EFTA deals are largely excellent. It has established deals with all the same places as the EU, plus Canada, and the GCC.

We are a significantly bigger player than the Swiss and if we join the EFTA then the EFTA would be considerably bigger. But without having to appeal to the lowest common denominator of French farmers etc

Let me know about all the trade deals that the Japanese have that have opened up - for example - the Indian or Chinese financial services markets. And let me know if Japan was able to exempt itself from the secret ISDS tribunals or the treaty requirement to keep its IP laws in lock-step with the US.

In Florida only 16% are late deciders, that's good for Trump.
It doesn't allow much room for his opponents.

Speedy said:

This is bad news for Trump:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/709854084916838400

Is that before or after they have seen the other options such as John Mcafee?

There are at least 100 really good reasons for leaving the EU. Three off the top of my head are:

1. No more supremacy of EU law and no ECJ.
2. No need - even in the EEA - to pay benefits to migrants.
3. A massive tax saving.

But the 'the rest of the world is desperate to open up their markets to us' is sadly and simply not true. Neither the Chinese not the Indians are going to let British banks into protected domestic markets. Nor are they going to relax foreign ownership rules. (And, by the way, that is mostly what trade negotiations are about these days. The Chinese know that our modest tariffs do little to stop demand for their consumer electronics, so realistically, our leverage is limited.)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-mini-super-tuesday-republican-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37666149 :

"Across GOP contests to date, 35 percent of voters have said they’re looking chiefly for a candidate who “shares my values,” more than have picked any other attribute. They’ve been a strong group for Cruz – he’s won 42 percent in this group – and a dreadful one for Trump, with just 11 percent. (Trump’s come back, overwhelmingly, among voters looking for someone who “can bring needed change” or who “tells it like it is,” who’ve accounted for half of voters so far, while Rubio’s done his best among those most focused on who can win in November.) In preliminary results, nearly four in 10 voters in today’s states are stressing shared values, consistent across all five states."

RodCrosby said:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/709854951183351808

I think the money men might have a different idea.

rcs1000 said:

There are at least 100 really good reasons for leaving the EU. Three off the top of my head are:

1. No more supremacy of EU law and no ECJ.
2. No need - even in the EEA - to pay benefits to migrants.
3. A massive tax saving.

But the 'the rest of the world is desperate to open up their markets to us' is sadly and simply not true. Neither the Chinese not the Indians are going to let British banks into protected domestic markets. Nor are they going to relax foreign ownership rules. (And, by the way, that is mostly what trade negotiations are about these days. The Chinese know that our modest tariffs do little to stop demand for their consumer electronics, so realistically, our leverage is limited.)

Are China and India's financial services the sum of the rest of the world?

Inside the EU we don't even have a free trade agreement with Australia FFS!

Scott_P said:

@Michael_Heaver: Nigel wins #GuardianLive EU debate by a mile - 46%. Huge win for Leave/Brexit! https://t.co/CkWmUnksOd

I thought Farage was a big vote loser?

The Public Accounts report says Government has not acted quickly enough to keep acute hospital trusts in financial balance—also finding "there is not yet a convincing plan in place for closing the £22 billion efficiency gap and avoiding a 'black hole' in the NHS finances".

The Committee concludes the financial performance of NHS trusts and NHS foundation trusts has deteriorated sharply and this trend is not sustainable.

The Committee highlights the "long-term damage" to trusts' finances caused by unrealistic government efficiency targets, and describes the data used to estimate trusts' potential cost savings targets as "seriously flawed".

It concludes the current system for paying providers "is not fit-for-purpose as it does not incentivise the right behaviours needed for joined-up healthcare services

Report summary
The financial health of NHS trusts and NHS foundation trusts has significantly worsened in the last three financial years. Trusts had a net deficit of £843 million in 2014–15, which is a severe decline from trusts' £91 million deficit in 2013–14, and £592 million surplus in 2012–13.

Trusts' finances look set to deteriorate further—halfway through 2015–16 three quarters of trusts had a deficit, and their total overspend could rise to around £2.5 billion.

The Department, NHS England and NHS Improvement have not taken action soon enough to keep trusts in financial balance. The target for trusts to make 4% efficiency savings across the board is unrealistic and better data is needed for more informed savings and efficiency targets.

Current system "not fit-for-purpose"
Failings in the system for paying providers need to be addressed as a matter of urgency, with NHS Improvement and NHS England acknowledging that the current system is not fit-for-purpose as it does not incentivise the right behaviours needed for joined-up healthcare services.

Spending on agency staff has contributed to trusts' financial distress, and action to tackle this problem is welcome, albeit late. The NHS will not solve the problem of reliance on agency staff until it solves its wider workforce planning issues.

We recognise the immense challenge of achieving financial and service sustainability when demand is rising and budgets are tight, and acknowledge the ongoing efforts of NHS England and NHS Improvement to find solutions. But there is much to do to produce the convincing plan necessary for the NHS to get itself back into financial balance.

Speedy said:

Ted Cruz will win Missouri, if the CNN report is accurate about late deciders breaking for Cruz there.
Bad night for Trump it seems.

Quelle surprise!

Let me guess: with Trump finished for good, and his candidature definitely dead?

Sanders seems to on course to win Illinois, not sure about Ohio:

https://twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/709860379590041606

AndyJS said:

Scott_P said:

@Michael_Heaver: Nigel wins #GuardianLive EU debate by a mile - 46%. Huge win for Leave/Brexit! https://t.co/CkWmUnksOd

I thought Farage was a big vote loser?

I think even Farage's detractors think he's a good in a debate. Well, many of his detractors think so.

Free Trade not popular again tonight, 57% of Democrats are against.

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Did anybody watch the first part of 4 part series of Inside Obama's Whitehouse on BBC2?

I didn't, wondering if it is worth it. I presume it was a lovely soft soap jobbie.

I just misread that as "Inside Obama's Warehouse"

I have a feeling that a reality show on Mo Obama's Cash n Carry Warehouse might have been more interesting.

Speedy said:

Free Trade not popular again tonight, 57% of Democrats are against.

I find it bizarre that people are opposed to free trade. But then go out and buy foreign goods. They can personally simulate life in a world without free trade by going out and only buying American.

But they don't.

CNN is setting the stage with their commentary that Trump will win Florida and Kasich will win Ohio, also that Sanders will win Ohio.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/709854261249646592

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

Ted Cruz will win Missouri, if the CNN report is accurate about late deciders breaking for Cruz there.
Bad night for Trump it seems.

If Cruz wins Ohio and Missouri, and Trump Florida, does that make the magic number all but unattainable?

Yep.
Trump comes out so much under target that it will be extremely unlikely for him to reach 1237 even if he outperforms in N.Y and California.

Nah, he can still make it with strong performances in North Carolina and Illinois tonight. Although it would depend on Rubio dropping out (we're at the official denial stage of that one).

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

Free Trade not popular again tonight, 57% of Democrats are against.

I find it bizarre that people are opposed to free trade. But then go out and buy foreign goods. They can personally simulate life in a world without free trade by going out and only buying American.

But they don't.

How can they when the American brands use predominantly offshore manufacturing?

The case against free trade isn't that it is bad in itself and is not the end goal of world economic development, but that until the behemoths of the developing world have caught up, the disruption caused by wage arbitrage has too great a human cost in the already industrialised societies. It may yet prove to have a geostrategic cost at some point as well.

Scrapping bursary saves £880mn but it reduces nurse supply & increases NHS reliance on agencies. Last years agency spend was £4bn in 2010 it was £0.4bn

chestnut said:

bigjohnowls said:

The Public Accounts report says Government has not acted quickly enough to keep acute hospital trusts in financial balance—also finding "there is not yet a convincing plan in place for closing the £22 billion efficiency gap and avoiding a 'black hole' in the NHS finances".

The Committee concludes the financial performance of NHS trusts and NHS foundation trusts has deteriorated sharply and this trend is not sustainable.

The Committee highlights the "long-term damage" to trusts' finances caused by unrealistic government efficiency targets, and describes the data used to estimate trusts' potential cost savings targets as "seriously flawed".

It concludes the current system for paying providers "is not fit-for-purpose as it does not incentivise the right behaviours needed for joined-up healthcare services

Report summary
The financial health of NHS trusts and NHS foundation trusts has significantly worsened in the last three financial years. Trusts had a net deficit of £843 million in 2014–15, which is a severe decline from trusts' £91 million deficit in 2013–14, and £592 million surplus in 2012–13.

Trusts' finances look set to deteriorate further—halfway through 2015–16 three quarters of trusts had a deficit, and their total overspend could rise to around £2.5 billion.

The Department, NHS England and NHS Improvement have not taken action soon enough to keep trusts in financial balance. The target for trusts to make 4% efficiency savings across the board is unrealistic and better data is needed for more informed savings and efficiency targets.

Current system "not fit-for-purpose"
Failings in the system for paying providers need to be addressed as a matter of urgency, with NHS Improvement and NHS England acknowledging that the current system is not fit-for-purpose as it does not incentivise the right behaviours needed for joined-up healthcare services.

Spending on agency staff has contributed to trusts' financial distress, and action to tackle this problem is welcome, albeit late. The NHS will not solve the problem of reliance on agency staff until it solves its wider workforce planning issues.

We recognise the immense challenge of achieving financial and service sustainability when demand is rising and budgets are tight, and acknowledge the ongoing efforts of NHS England and NHS Improvement to find solutions. But there is much to do to produce the convincing plan necessary for the NHS to get itself back into financial balance.

So, in spite of a record budget the "Envy of the World" is still crap , and "one of the worst healthcare systems in the advanced world" ((c) OECD)?

Never trust the Tories with the NHS