politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Holyrood 2016: the SNP’s hegemony continues
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And they've convinced themselves they are the 'moral majority' apparently on the back of Katie Hopkins! Makes 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' seem like a dangerous leftyAndrew said:
It really is. Even as someone who's leaning leave, the foaming at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned is pretty off-putting.Richard_Nabavi said:
The anti-Cameron nonsense here (and, to be fair, in the Mail and Telegraph sometimes) is stark, raving, 100%, fruitcake-rich, bonkers.
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You lot look just as ridiculous. I think there is a very good business and economic case to be made for staying in the EU. But Cameron does himself and the Remain cause no good whatsoever by hopping across the channel to get a socialist to try to blackmail the British people.felix said:
And they've convinced themselves they are the 'moral majority' apparently on the back of Katie Hopkins! Makes 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' seem like a dangerous leftyAndrew said:
It really is. Even as someone who's leaning leave, the foaming at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned is pretty off-putting.Richard_Nabavi said:
The anti-Cameron nonsense here (and, to be fair, in the Mail and Telegraph sometimes) is stark, raving, 100%, fruitcake-rich, bonkers.0 -
Weird Bernie surge on Betfair right now, got backed all the way into around 10-1.0
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Did you see this article? If it is accurate, Rubio's campaign seems to be completely incompetent. Voting has already started in FL and the campaign's only just gearing up now.Pulpstar said:Weird Bernie surge on Betfair right now, got backed all the way into around 10-1.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/rubio-scrambles-to-undo-trump-in-florida-2202430 -
Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
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I've got him at ~ zero/ a small negative right now. I'm hoping Ted Cruz can get some momentum (~+2.7k Nom & ~ +3.4k POTUS), and Hillary's slow strangulation on Bernie continues. Trump almost exactly matches the fair value of my book, so does Kasich for that matter. Not really taking too much of a view on the current odds (Trump/Hillary), but Cruz looks value whilst Rubio looks toast to me.Richard_Nabavi said:
Did you see this article? If it is accurate, Rubio's campaign seems to be completely incompetent. Voting has already started in FL and the campaign's only just gearing up now.Pulpstar said:Weird Bernie surge on Betfair right now, got backed all the way into around 10-1.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/rubio-scrambles-to-undo-trump-in-florida-2202430 -
Yup - it's all an evil conspiracy stage-managed by Cameron leading Hollande by the nose while at the same time being weak and vacuous. Thank heavens I'm off out for a meal by the sun in the beautiful Mediterranean.tlg86 said:
You lot look just as ridiculous. I think there is a very good business and economic case to be made for staying in the EU. But Cameron does himself and the Remain cause no good whatsoever by hopping across the channel to get a socialist to try to blackmail the British people.felix said:
And they've convinced themselves they are the 'moral majority' apparently on the back of Katie Hopkins! Makes 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' seem like a dangerous leftyAndrew said:
It really is. Even as someone who's leaning leave, the foaming at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned is pretty off-putting.Richard_Nabavi said:
The anti-Cameron nonsense here (and, to be fair, in the Mail and Telegraph sometimes) is stark, raving, 100%, fruitcake-rich, bonkers.0 -
Its gets better.....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Afternoon everyone.
I've spent the last few hours watching the first 6 episodes of House of Cards.
Think it is very good so far.0 -
I was just leafleting rather than canvassing, so no chats with the voters! I'm in Bromley.SimonStClare said:
Evening Mr RoyalBlue,RoyalBlue said:Just got back from 2 hours of leafleting for Vote Leave. It started chucking it down so I went home early, then as soon as I get home the sun comes out! Typical...
How was the general reception on the door step and if not secret, where were you leafleting?
Will try to get a few helpers next time, it's not so fun on your own.
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I support the other side but good on you for getting out there - not an easy job!RoyalBlue said:
I was just leafleting rather than canvassing, so no chats with the voters! I'm in Bromley.SimonStClare said:
Evening Mr RoyalBlue,RoyalBlue said:Just got back from 2 hours of leafleting for Vote Leave. It started chucking it down so I went home early, then as soon as I get home the sun comes out! Typical...
How was the general reception on the door step and if not secret, where were you leafleting?
Will try to get a few helpers next time, it's not so fun on your own.-1 -
Good to hear, will catch the rest tomorrow as will be watching the cycling this evening. :-)FrancisUrquhart said:
Its gets better.....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Afternoon everyone.
I've spent the last few hours watching the first 6 episodes of House of Cards.
Think it is very good so far.0 -
That's right; no danger of record levels of immigration affecting your lifestyle.felix said:
Yup - it's all an evil conspiracy stage-managed by Cameron leading Hollande by the nose while at the same time being weak and vacuous. Thank heavens I'm off out for a meal by the sun in the beautiful Mediterranean.tlg86 said:
You lot look just as ridiculous. I think there is a very good business and economic case to be made for staying in the EU. But Cameron does himself and the Remain cause no good whatsoever by hopping across the channel to get a socialist to try to blackmail the British people.felix said:
And they've convinced themselves they are the 'moral majority' apparently on the back of Katie Hopkins! Makes 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' seem like a dangerous leftyAndrew said:
It really is. Even as someone who's leaning leave, the foaming at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned is pretty off-putting.Richard_Nabavi said:
The anti-Cameron nonsense here (and, to be fair, in the Mail and Telegraph sometimes) is stark, raving, 100%, fruitcake-rich, bonkers.0 -
Trump's defeat now would be unprecedented in the recent history of the United States. Obviously, it could be a first - but whilst Cruz is right, Rubio is too short and Trump too long IMP0
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Thanks, and bravo for getting out there. PBs very own ‘man on the spot’ Bromley divisionRoyalBlue said:
I was just leafleting rather than canvassing, so no chats with the voters! I'm in Bromley.SimonStClare said:
Evening Mr RoyalBlue,RoyalBlue said:Just got back from 2 hours of leafleting for Vote Leave. It started chucking it down so I went home early, then as soon as I get home the sun comes out! Typical...
How was the general reception on the door step and if not secret, where were you leafleting?
Will try to get a few helpers next time, it's not so fun on your own.
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Marco Rubio has also picked a terrible time to get the flu.0
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Kasich is also probably too short, but lets wait till he wins Ohio and Marco loses Florida to lay him.0
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Herself has a stinking cold. She has retired to bed to marathon on it. It seems to have perked her up enormously.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its gets better.....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Afternoon everyone.
I've spent the last few hours watching the first 6 episodes of House of Cards.
Think it is very good so far.
I have caught up with 6 episodes of Trapped instead. Which is enjoyable despite being Nordically ponderous. I keep seeing buildings in Reykjavik and going "Oooh - I know where that is!"
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13083781perdix said:Cameron did not pledge to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, it was an objective which still applies (forever?)
And I believe that will mean net migration to this country will be in the order of tens of thousands each year, not the hundreds of thousands every year that we have seen over the last decade.
So yes, a lie, and if that isn't funny enough
Yes, Britain will always be open to the best and brightest from around the world and those fleeing persecution.
But with us, our borders will be under control and immigration will be at levels our country can manage.
No ifs. No buts.
That's a promise we made to the British people. And it's a promise we are keeping.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11985075/David-Cameron-vows-to-seize-control-of-Britains-borders-as-he-sets-out-his-demands-for-EU-reform.htmlHe added: "Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do OK outside the EU. I don’t think that is true.
So not quite Armageddon then.
“Let’s be frank. Britain is an amazing country. We have got the fifth biggest economy in the world … The argument isn't whether Britain could survive outside the EU. Of course it could.0 -
@Richard_Nabavi
A Rubio loss, Cruz's orbit believes, would then set up the two-man race with Donald Trump they believe they are destined for -- and absolutely need -- to win.
"Florida's a burning dumpster fire for Marco Rubio," said Cruz spokesman Ron Nehring. "If he doesn't win his own state, it's hard to rationalize going forward."0 -
Jonathan Portes sent in a freedom of information request on how many active NI numbers there were for EU citizens and HMRC did not release the numbers, so he is correct and you owe him an apology.Richard_Nabavi said:
You think the immigration statistics are not being released?blackburn63 said:And?
Cameron pledged to reduce immigration to tens of thousand, now the figures aren't released.
Your stance is becoming more ludicrous by the day.
Fruitcakes and loons hardly covers it.
Just yesterday people on here pledged to stop gratuitous insults but here you go being rude needlessly. Learn some manners. Would you speak to people like that in real life??0 -
Lets see it's too early to tell.Pulpstar said:Kasich is also probably too short, but lets wait till he wins Ohio and Marco loses Florida to lay him.
There have been no polls since the Fox debate, so we are flying blind.
But Cruz has torpedoed the Romney plan:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/04/politics/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-florida/index.html
"Cruz's aides and allies are preparing an aggressive effort to keep Marco Rubio from winning his home state of Florida on March 15, a blow they hope would render Rubio's path to the GOP nomination unimaginable and force him to withdraw.
A Rubio loss, Cruz's orbit believes, would then set up the two-man race with Donald Trump they believe they are destined for -- and absolutely need -- to win."0 -
That load of utter tosh is beneath even your level of asskissery. The vast majority of the public think that getting out of the EU will solve the immigration problem. They may be wrong in the short term if Cameron is suicidal enough to try going the EEA route in the teeth of a Leave vote on the basis of controlling immigration, if the government goes full kipper it will definitely reduce immigration. Whether they are right or wrong at this stage is beside the point, if the new immigration figures are much higher than last year, it will increase the turn out for Leave voters, the last thing the PM wants. I know this, you know this, Uncle Tom Cobley could have a fair guess at this, so please don't insult our intelligence.Richard_Nabavi said:I particularly enjoyed the nonsense about the allegedly 'true' immigration figures, which the nutjobs think he is deliberately concealing because of the referendum. No-one seems to ask what conceivable relevance illegal immigration has to the question of whether the UK should stay in the EU or not.
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I also think Project Fear will work, the danger for Remain is that when the things they promised would not happen do happen, the credibility of a lot of people will be shot to pieces.Sean_F said:
It's a truism. But, it sounded like Hollande was threatening the UK, and Cameron seemed happy for him to be threatening the UK.richardDodd said:Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..
On balance, I think Project Fear will work, but the danger for Remain is that they will come over as being unpatriotic if they emphasise how powerless we are when foreigners want to do nasty things to us.0 -
The whole Romney plan was based on Cruz, Rubio and Kasich to cooperate with each other in order to go to the convention and select Romney as the nominee.Pulpstar said:@Speedy A burning dumpster for the Rubio campaign !
The situation reminds me of an old Top Gear episode were the 3 had alfa romeo's and they where at a race track, their strategy was to cooperate to block everyone and get stuck behind them, until Hammond decided to break away and they lost the race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4xniFkFdfA0 -
I foresee further trimming of the terms in the EU Parliament and a lot of desperate government backing and filling trying to tell people that that changes are cosmetic and we still really got a damn fine deal.... and then the emergency brake will get struck down in the ECJ...nigel4england said:
I also think Project Fear will work, the danger for Remain is that when the things they promised would not happen do happen, the credibility of a lot of people will be shot to pieces.Sean_F said:
It's a truism. But, it sounded like Hollande was threatening the UK, and Cameron seemed happy for him to be threatening the UK.richardDodd said:Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..
On balance, I think Project Fear will work, but the danger for Remain is that they will come over as being unpatriotic if they emphasise how powerless we are when foreigners want to do nasty things to us.0 -
Maybe he sees it as paying £71,000 to guarantee Leicester winning the league. A lot of fans of a lot of clubs would pay that.malcolmg said:I see the Leicester City fan who had £20 on at 5000-1 has accepted £29,000 payout from the bookie to void the bet. Debatable whether he will want them to win it now.
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He's got pretty poor odds there though... I would have held out for more.SouthamObserver said:
Maybe he sees it as paying £71,000 to guarantee Leicester winning the league. A lot of fans of a lot of clubs would pay that.malcolmg said:I see the Leicester City fan who had £20 on at 5000-1 has accepted £29,000 payout from the bookie to void the bet. Debatable whether he will want them to win it now.
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I imagine the government spin would be that you all said it was bad deal, so what are you complaining about?Indigo said:
I foresee further trimming of the terms in the EU Parliament and a lot of desperate government backing and filling trying to tell people that that changes are cosmetic and we still really got a damn fine deal.... and then the emergency brake will get struck down in the ECJ...nigel4england said:
I also think Project Fear will work, the danger for Remain is that when the things they promised would not happen do happen, the credibility of a lot of people will be shot to pieces.Sean_F said:
It's a truism. But, it sounded like Hollande was threatening the UK, and Cameron seemed happy for him to be threatening the UK.richardDodd said:Hollande was absolutely right..there will be consequences for the UK if we leave..impossible for there not to be..anyone who thinks there wont be is a total fool. What the UK voters have to do is consider whether they are worth it..
On balance, I think Project Fear will work, but the danger for Remain is that they will come over as being unpatriotic if they emphasise how powerless we are when foreigners want to do nasty things to us.0 -
Calm down lad - lolfelix said:
The anti-Cameron nonsense on here is understandable from Lab/LD sympathisers but simply crazy from Conservatives. Do you really want the likes of Fox/IDS or worse in charge? If so prepare for opposition.Plato_Says said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Cameron is nothing more than a Hollandaise sauce slurping surrender monkey. A national embarrassment and laughing stock. The sooner he's gone the better.Alanbrooke said:
not so much standing up for Britain as kneeling down and unzipping for Britain.TheScreamingEagles said:
The British public loved it.Alanbrooke said:
Like a briish PM standing sheepishly aside while a French President threatens his country ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Like the Bulgars after Kleidion?Sean_F said:
I think it's worse than that for them.TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish Labour are like Carthaginian soldiers just before the Battle of Zama. they are led by a numpty, facing a formidable opponent, they know they're in for the shellacking of their lives.
YouGov has recorded four consecutive leads for Remain since the last published poll, suggesting a movement towards the Remain side in the first two weeks of campaigning
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/05/remain-retakes-lead-eu-referendum/0 -
He als don't understand the situation. Illegal immigrants do not have NINOs for Gods sake. This is about accurately understanding legal immigration what the passenger survey numbers are failing to do. Pro-EU pro-migration left wing professor and former civil servant Portes is pointing this out. He put in FOI request and it was blocked. The cabinet office is putting in huge resources to publisg dodgy dossiers but they won't release this one number. Cameron is trying to keep the figures from public before crucial decision!!Indigo said:
That load of utter tosh is beneath even your level of asskissery. The vast majority of the public think that getting out of the EU will solve the immigration problem. They may be wrong in the short term if Cameron is suicidal enough to try going the EEA route in the teeth of a Leave vote on the basis of controlling immigration, if the government goes full kipper it will definitely reduce immigration. Whether they are right or wrong at this stage is beside the point, if the new immigration figures are much higher than last year, it will increase the turn out for Leave voters, the last thing the PM wants. I know this, you know this, Uncle Tom Cobley could have a fair guess at this, so please don't insult our intelligence.Richard_Nabavi said:I particularly enjoyed the nonsense about the allegedly 'true' immigration figures, which the nutjobs think he is deliberately concealing because of the referendum. No-one seems to ask what conceivable relevance illegal immigration has to the question of whether the UK should stay in the EU or not.
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First Maine caucus result looks bad for Trump good for Cruz:
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/7061818516609720320 -
When did he give in? After what I saw at WHL and what I'm seeing on the TV right now Leicester are looking very good for the title.TheWhiteRabbit said:
He's got pretty poor odds there though... I would have held out for more.SouthamObserver said:
Maybe he sees it as paying £71,000 to guarantee Leicester winning the league. A lot of fans of a lot of clubs would pay that.malcolmg said:I see the Leicester City fan who had £20 on at 5000-1 has accepted £29,000 payout from the bookie to void the bet. Debatable whether he will want them to win it now.
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lol, no way Maine is voting CruzSpeedy said:First Maine caucus result looks bad for Trump good for Cruz:
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/7061818516609720320 -
Out of touch I see.felix said:
Yup - it's all an evil conspiracy stage-managed by Cameron leading Hollande by the nose while at the same time being weak and vacuous. Thank heavens I'm off out for a meal by the sun in the beautiful Mediterranean.tlg86 said:
You lot look just as ridiculous. I think there is a very good business and economic case to be made for staying in the EU. But Cameron does himself and the Remain cause no good whatsoever by hopping across the channel to get a socialist to try to blackmail the British people.felix said:
And they've convinced themselves they are the 'moral majority' apparently on the back of Katie Hopkins! Makes 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells' seem like a dangerous leftyAndrew said:
It really is. Even as someone who's leaning leave, the foaming at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned is pretty off-putting.Richard_Nabavi said:
The anti-Cameron nonsense here (and, to be fair, in the Mail and Telegraph sometimes) is stark, raving, 100%, fruitcake-rich, bonkers.0 -
Well Cruz getting 50% there, Trump 31%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
lol, no way Maine is voting CruzSpeedy said:First Maine caucus result looks bad for Trump good for Cruz:
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/706181851660972032
In 2012 the same county had Paul 34, Romney 28, Santorum 26, the whole Main results where Romney 38, Paul 36, Santorum 18.
It could be very close in Maine.0 -
Santorum was overstated, so Cruz will be... I just don't see a Cruz win. It may be close Trump vs the field thoughSpeedy said:
Well Cruz getting 50% there, Trump 31%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
lol, no way Maine is voting CruzSpeedy said:First Maine caucus result looks bad for Trump good for Cruz:
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/706181851660972032
In 2012 the same county had Paul 34, Romney 28, Santorum 26, the whole Main results where Romney 38, Paul 36, Santorum 18.
It could be very close in Maine.0 -
Those voodoo Maine numbers look dire for Rubio, and even worse for Kasich mind.0
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Only Kasich is barely above 10%, Rubio is bellow 10.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Santorum was overstated, so Cruz will be... I just don't see a Cruz win. It may be close Trump vs the field thoughSpeedy said:
Well Cruz getting 50% there, Trump 31%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
lol, no way Maine is voting CruzSpeedy said:First Maine caucus result looks bad for Trump good for Cruz:
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/706181851660972032
In 2012 the same county had Paul 34, Romney 28, Santorum 26, the whole Main results where Romney 38, Paul 36, Santorum 18.
It could be very close in Maine.
It could be that the debate damaged Trump and Rubio so much, Cruz wins.0 -
My recommendation of Cruz 40-1 POTUS was at the exact smae time he was 10.5 for the nomination btw.
For full disclosure I laid £20 @ 10.5 Nom, backed £40 @ 40.0 POTUS.0 -
Tosh? What has illegal immigration got to do with the EU. What about the legal non EU immigration figures?Indigo said:
That load of utter tosh is beneath even your level of asskissery. The vast majority of the public think that getting out of the EU will solve the immigration problem. They may be wrong in the short term if Cameron is suicidal enough to try going the EEA route in the teeth of a Leave vote on the basis of controlling immigration, if the government goes full kipper it will definitely reduce immigration. Whether they are right or wrong at this stage is beside the point, if the new immigration figures are much higher than last year, it will increase the turn out for Leave voters, the last thing the PM wants. I know this, you know this, Uncle Tom Cobley could have a fair guess at this, so please don't insult our intelligence.Richard_Nabavi said:I particularly enjoyed the nonsense about the allegedly 'true' immigration figures, which the nutjobs think he is deliberately concealing because of the referendum. No-one seems to ask what conceivable relevance illegal immigration has to the question of whether the UK should stay in the EU or not.
Are Leave united around not even joining the EEA/EFTA?
Can Leave actually tell us what they want us to vote for please?
Certainly you had better tell the people of Sunderland and all the workers dependant on the Nissan factory. Renault/Nissan are already building a direct rival to the Sunderland built Nissan/Renault Qashqai... the Kadjar - built in Spain and it's typically £2000 cheaper.
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He was about that for a while, which was fair. He should never have been 49/1, I should have backed him more strongly at that point.Pulpstar said:My recommendation of Cruz 40-1 POTUS was at the exact smae time he was 10.5 for the nomination btw.
For full disclosure I laid £20 @ 10.5 Nom, backed £40 @ 40.0 POTUS.
I am (nom)
Rubio -717
Trump +775
Cruz +585
Pres
Trump +570
The field -1100 -
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/maine/
Early days yet but perhaps a wholesale transfer of Rubio -> Cruz going on.0 -
4.5% reporting. Cruz's odds will tumble if that holds.0
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Second Maine county, Hancock:
Cruz 410
Trump 220
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/706188476962709504
2 out of 22 caucus sites now have Cruz way way way ahead in Maine.
It seems I was right about the debate terminating Trump, and Cruz winning it.0 -
Isn't that just that one we saw earlier?Pulpstar said:4.5% reporting. Cruz's odds will tumble if that holds.
Speedy's got a second0 -
I'm frustrated with myself that I only nibbled at Cruz @50 rather than jumping in with both feetTheWhiteRabbit said:
He was about that for a while, which was fair. He should never have been 49/1, I should have backed him more strongly at that point.Pulpstar said:My recommendation of Cruz 40-1 POTUS was at the exact smae time he was 10.5 for the nomination btw.
For full disclosure I laid £20 @ 10.5 Nom, backed £40 @ 40.0 POTUS.
I am (nom)
Rubio -717
Trump +775
Cruz +585
Pres
Trump +570
The field -1100 -
But the negotiation process was designed to humour the Tory backbenches, not the voters. I think most voters see it as a ridiculous charade - it's blindingly obvious that Cameron never had the remotest intention of leaving the EU.CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
It's amazing that so many Tories apparently believed otherwise.0 -
Malcolm Turnbull becomes the first Australian PM to attend Mardi Gras
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mardi-gras-2016-celebrations/72237880 -
Caucuses favour Cruz, Maine would be a big upset but Trump could still win Louisiana and Kentucky.Speedy said:Second Maine county, Hancock:
Cruz 410
Trump 220
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/706188476962709504
2 out of 22 caucus sites now have Cruz way way way ahead in Maine.
It seems I was right about the debate terminating Trump, and Cruz winning it.0 -
Who cares, Cruz is beating Trump in Maine big time.HYUFD said:Malcolm Turnbull becomes the first Australian PM to attend Mardi Gras
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mardi-gras-2016-celebrations/72237880 -
Kentucky is also a caucus.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Caucuses favour Cruz, Maine would be a big upset but Trump could still win Louisiana and Kentucky.Speedy said:Second Maine county, Hancock:
Cruz 410
Trump 220
https://twitter.com/AERatterree/status/706188476962709504
2 out of 22 caucus sites now have Cruz way way way ahead in Maine.
It seems I was right about the debate terminating Trump, and Cruz winning it.
Maine should have been one of Trumps best states, it's right next to N.H and Massachusetts, yet Cruz is winning there by almost 2-1.
I think it was the debate that did it.0 -
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
3 out of 22 now:
https://twitter.com/Mark_Ellis/status/706196880103972868
So Trump finally after so many months collapsed, after the Fox debate.
Cruz is picking up the pieces, he's winning Maine which means that he will win the rest too.0 -
There is barely a trickle of results in, most Maine results will not be in until 8pm ET ie around 12-1am UK timeSpeedy said:
Who cares, Cruz is beating Trump in Maine big time.HYUFD said:Malcolm Turnbull becomes the first Australian PM to attend Mardi Gras
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mardi-gras-2016-celebrations/72237880 -
Are Nissan closing the Sunderland plant then?flightpath01 said:
Tosh? What has illegal immigration got to do with the EU. What about the legal non EU immigration figures?Indigo said:
That load of utter tosh is beneath even your level of asskissery. The vast majority of the public think that getting out of the EU will solve the immigration problem. They may be wrong in the short term if Cameron is suicidal enough to try going the EEA route in the teeth of a Leave vote on the basis of controlling immigration, if the government goes full kipper it will definitely reduce immigration. Whether they are right or wrong at this stage is beside the point, if the new immigration figures are much higher than last year, it will increase the turn out for Leave voters, the last thing the PM wants. I know this, you know this, Uncle Tom Cobley could have a fair guess at this, so please don't insult our intelligence.Richard_Nabavi said:I particularly enjoyed the nonsense about the allegedly 'true' immigration figures, which the nutjobs think he is deliberately concealing because of the referendum. No-one seems to ask what conceivable relevance illegal immigration has to the question of whether the UK should stay in the EU or not.
Are Leave united around not even joining the EEA/EFTA?
Can Leave actually tell us what they want us to vote for please?
Certainly you had better tell the people of Sunderland and all the workers dependant on the Nissan factory. Renault/Nissan are already building a direct rival to the Sunderland built Nissan/Renault Qashqai... the Kadjar - built in Spain and it's typically £2000 cheaper.
Meantime nobody has warned Honda the world will fall in if we leave:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/31/honda-200m-investment-record-week-uk-car-industry-swindon-factory-civic0 -
The margins of Cruz's lead over Trump are so big that it will be difficult for Trump to beat him.HYUFD said:
There is barely a trickle of results in, most Maine results will not be in until 8pm ET ie around 12-1am UK timeSpeedy said:
Who cares, Cruz is beating Trump in Maine big time.HYUFD said:Malcolm Turnbull becomes the first Australian PM to attend Mardi Gras
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mardi-gras-2016-celebrations/72237880 -
Many of these are from areas where Paul won in 2012, Romney won the state. It is also a caucus which helps CruzSpeedy said:
The margins of Cruz's lead over Trump are so big that it will be difficult for Trump to beat him.HYUFD said:
There is barely a trickle of results in, most Maine results will not be in until 8pm ET ie around 12-1am UK timeSpeedy said:
Who cares, Cruz is beating Trump in Maine big time.HYUFD said:Malcolm Turnbull becomes the first Australian PM to attend Mardi Gras
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mardi-gras-2016-celebrations/72237880 -
You are exaggerating things to a ridiculous degree, you cannot say Cruz is going to be nominee on less than 5% in from a few caucuses in Maine!! If Cruz wins Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas and Maine tonight clearly that may be a slight possibility, if not a probability but certainly not at this very early stage. I would agree he is now Trump's main rivalSpeedy said:3 out of 22 now:
https://twitter.com/Mark_Ellis/status/706196880103972868
So Trump finally after so many months collapsed, after the Fox debate.
Cruz is picking up the pieces, he's winning Maine which means that he will win the rest too.
This is about as likely as your posts at 11.30pm a fortnight ago that Trump had lost South Carolina based on a handful of titbits from a few exit polls, which were not even the headline numbers0 -
Well Cruz is leading by 2-1 in Waldo, Hancock and Kennebeck counties, those are counties that Paul won in 2012, but the margins for Cruz are much larger.HYUFD said:
Many of these are from areas where Paul won in 2012, Romney won the state. It is also a caucus which helps CruzSpeedy said:
The margins of Cruz's lead over Trump are so big that it will be difficult for Trump to beat him.HYUFD said:
There is barely a trickle of results in, most Maine results will not be in until 8pm ET ie around 12-1am UK timeSpeedy said:
Who cares, Cruz is beating Trump in Maine big time.HYUFD said:Malcolm Turnbull becomes the first Australian PM to attend Mardi Gras
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-05/mardi-gras-2016-celebrations/72237880 -
There has been zero polling in Maine that I saw
It's not surprising that it favours Trump and Cruz since (a) it was a strong Perot state with a big white working-class and (b) its conservatives are really conservative
It's consistent with Cruz winning about 1 in 3 states so far, but the margin seems really big. Maybe this is the Ben Carson vote coming home
It certainly does NOT prove or disprove anything about the debates, since we don't know the status quo ante in Maine0 -
OK maybe i'm overreacting, however 3 out of 22 is 13.5% in , and the margins are very big.HYUFD said:
You are exaggerating things to a ridiculous degree, you cannot say Cruz is going to be nominee on less than 5% in from a few caucuses in Maine!! If Cruz wins Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas and Maine tonight clearly that may be a slight possibility, if not a probability but certainly not at this very early stage. I would agree he is now Trump's main rivalSpeedy said:3 out of 22 now:
https://twitter.com/Mark_Ellis/status/706196880103972868
So Trump finally after so many months collapsed, after the Fox debate.
Cruz is picking up the pieces, he's winning Maine which means that he will win the rest too.
This is about as likely as your posts at 11.30pm a fortnight ago that Trump had lost South Carolina based on a handful of titbits from a few exit polls, which were not even the headline numbers0 -
Once we have 12 in you will be able to make a clearer prediction and we also need to see the other 3 states results too (though the fact all bar Louisiana is a caucus will help Cruz, so bear that in mind)Speedy said:
OK maybe i'm overreacting, however 3 out of 22 is 13.5% in , and the margins are very big.HYUFD said:
You are exaggerating things to a ridiculous degree, you cannot say Cruz is going to be nominee on less than 5% in from a few caucuses in Maine!! If Cruz wins Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas and Maine tonight clearly that may be a slight possibility, if not a probability but certainly not at this very early stage. I would agree he is now Trump's main rivalSpeedy said:3 out of 22 now:
https://twitter.com/Mark_Ellis/status/706196880103972868
So Trump finally after so many months collapsed, after the Fox debate.
Cruz is picking up the pieces, he's winning Maine which means that he will win the rest too.
This is about as likely as your posts at 11.30pm a fortnight ago that Trump had lost South Carolina based on a handful of titbits from a few exit polls, which were not even the headline numbers0 -
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.0 -
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
0 -
Actually I'm waiting for Cumberland county to decide who won Maine.HYUFD said:
Once we have 12 in you will be able to make a clearer prediction and we also need to see the other 3 states results too (though the fact all bar Louisiana is a caucus will help Cruz, so bear that in mind)Speedy said:
OK maybe i'm overreacting, however 3 out of 22 is 13.5% in , and the margins are very big.HYUFD said:
You are exaggerating things to a ridiculous degree, you cannot say Cruz is going to be nominee on less than 5% in from a few caucuses in Maine!! If Cruz wins Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas and Maine tonight clearly that may be a slight possibility, if not a probability but certainly not at this very early stage. I would agree he is now Trump's main rivalSpeedy said:3 out of 22 now:
https://twitter.com/Mark_Ellis/status/706196880103972868
So Trump finally after so many months collapsed, after the Fox debate.
Cruz is picking up the pieces, he's winning Maine which means that he will win the rest too.
This is about as likely as your posts at 11.30pm a fortnight ago that Trump had lost South Carolina based on a handful of titbits from a few exit polls, which were not even the headline numbers
That's a county that should go to Trump, but it has to go heavily for him to balance the 2-1 margins for Cruz in the Ron Paul counties.0 -
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.anothernick said:
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.0 -
The only published Maine poll came in November 2013 and had Christie on 27%, then Cruz on 14%, Bush on 12% and Paul on 10%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_ME_111313.pdf0 -
No-one is claiming such words represent the practical and coherent vision of the future. If you want one of those, here you are.anothernick said:
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
http://www.iea.org.uk/brexit0 -
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
No, and it may not be enough. But against an unloved alternate vision, there is still a reasonable chance it will be enough.anothernick said:
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.
There's some of that, but that is not all there is. If Cameron could stay in place whatever the result, or at least it was certain the Tories would not deviate too much from his mostly moderate positions, that would satisfy me as a non Tory much more than those who see it as an opportunity to turn everything upside down that Cameron touched. It's an unfortunate distraction to the EU contest for some, not all, anti_Cameron Tories (that is, the historical ones, not the new converts) seeing this as a wider thing.flightpath01 said:
And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party.CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.0 -
Steven Whaley left the website yesterday because of how rude and brash some people were being. Why don't you make your arguments without being rude??flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2015/10/16/sanders-clinton-trump-lead-presidential-field-in-maine-poll/HYUFD said:The only published Maine poll came in November 2013 and had Christie on 27%, then Cruz on 14%, Bush on 12% and Paul on 10%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_ME_111313.pdf
Trump 23
Carson 13
Bush 6
Fiorina 6
0 -
Trump's probably going to win it but I think he's going to drift again tonight. £100 Sold at 5.00
-
I can't find any polls on Maine so to be frank we have no idea whether Cruz doing well is a surprise or not. Also caucuses tell us nowhere as much as primaries.
If the race does boils down very quickly to Cruz v Trump (and t'sa very big if) then a Trump victory is not quite a done deal yet. There are some huge winner-takes-all primaries coming up.
From a Democratic point of view though it matters little, it's debatable whether Cruz is anymore electable than Trump. In fact as a full on Tea Party Conservative his chances are probably slimmer.0 -
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?Sean_F said:
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.anothernick said:
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.0 -
Well it's over in Maine it seems:
Mark J. Ellis @Mark_Ellis 33s34 seconds ago
In Portland, #Maine's largest city, @tedcruz beats @realDonaldTrump. @JohnKasich 3rd #mepolitics #mecaucus #unofficial0 -
Interesting to see these straws in the wind of Cruz potentially challenging in Maine of all places...
Personally I think Cruz would stand less chance in a general election than Trump (though admittedly the head-to-head polls are saying something different for now).0 -
Any website for updates, decisiondeskhq is slooow.0
-
Cruz was not mentioned in that pollSpeedy said:
http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2015/10/16/sanders-clinton-trump-lead-presidential-field-in-maine-poll/HYUFD said:The only published Maine poll came in November 2013 and had Christie on 27%, then Cruz on 14%, Bush on 12% and Paul on 10%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_ME_111313.pdf
Trump 23
Carson 13
Bush 6
Fiorina 60 -
You mean engage in debate with the pro Leavers on here who trot out the word liar in every post they make on here .Sean_F said:
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
Cruz is a social extremist, of course he would lose.Danny565 said:Interesting to see these straws in the wind of Cruz potentially challenging in Maine of all places...
Personally I think Cruz would stand less chance in a general election than Trump (though admittedly the head-to-head polls are saying something different for now).0 -
Cruz is really setting himself up as next in line for 2020 if Trump loses in November, he will probably keep the contest going until New York and Pennsylvania vote at the end of April but I think Trump still wins in the endDanny565 said:Interesting to see these straws in the wind of Cruz potentially challenging in Maine of all places...
Personally I think Cruz would stand less chance in a general election than Trump (though admittedly the head-to-head polls are saying something different for now).0 -
So, would Cruz or Trump be a better general election candidate?
Cruz'd wound but not split the party. Republicans would hate him but get in line. Trump would cause a split, and some Republicans would endorse Hillary Clinton
Cruz might be more repellent to low-income white voters, and less repellent to ethnic minorities (not 100 per cent sure about that one)
The Clinton-Cruz map would look more like the post-2000 Bush and Obama alignment than Clinton-Trump. Put plainly, I think Trump would be more likely than Generic-R to win Pennsylvania and Maine, but also to lose Georgia and North Carolina
I think Cruz outcomes are in a narrower range, in which the conservative core vote secures the usual states, while the post-2000 swing states are repelled0 -
Trump of course.EPG said:So, would Cruz or Trump be a better general election candidate?
Cruz'd wound but not split the party. Republicans would hate him but get in line. Trump would cause a split, and some Republicans would endorse Hillary Clinton
Cruz might be more repellent to low-income white voters, and less repellent to ethnic minorities (not 100 per cent sure about that one)
The Clinton-Cruz map would look more like the post-2000 Bush and Obama alignment than Clinton-Trump. Put plainly, I think Trump would be more likely than Generic-R to win Pennsylvania and Maine, but also to lose Georgia and North Carolina
I think Cruz outcomes are in a narrower range, in which the conservative core vote secures the usual states, while the post-2000 swing states are repelled
Cruz is all God, Guns and Bible, a more polished version of Rick Santorum.0 -
Also, even leaving policy aside, he suffers from EdMiliband-itis -- comes across as too dull and weird to even get people to pay attention to what he has to say, which means he won't be able to drown out the negative campaigning from the other side.Speedy said:
Cruz is a social extremist, of course he would lose.Danny565 said:Interesting to see these straws in the wind of Cruz potentially challenging in Maine of all places...
Personally I think Cruz would stand less chance in a general election than Trump (though admittedly the head-to-head polls are saying something different for now).
Trump, if nothing else, will always get people to pay attention to him, which might pay off if he starts moderating some of his rhetoric in the general election.0 -
Unlike the guy who wants to kill families of terrorists.Speedy said:
Cruz is a social extremist, of course he would lose.Danny565 said:Interesting to see these straws in the wind of Cruz potentially challenging in Maine of all places...
Personally I think Cruz would stand less chance in a general election than Trump (though admittedly the head-to-head polls are saying something different for now).0 -
nah it's more about people who have given up on their compatriots.anothernick said:
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?Sean_F said:
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.anothernick said:
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.0 -
The defeatism lies with predicting horrors if we leave the EU.anothernick said:
"Defeatism" - interesting way of looking at it. Are we in some kind of war with other EU countries which we will somehow "win" if we leave?Sean_F said:
But, it's more attractive than the defeatism that comes from their opponents.anothernick said:
Leavers often sound like true believers reciting articles of faith - "govern ourselves" "throw off the bureaucracy" "independence day" and even "come into the light" .flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
This hardly amounts to a practical and coherent vision of the future.0 -
Cruz is miles better at debating than Ed Miliband.
Also Rubio has got the flu in the last few days. Ted is taking full advantage.0 -
While enforcing the Bible as the law of the land is not ?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Unlike the guy who wants to kill families of terrorists.Speedy said:
Cruz is a social extremist, of course he would lose.Danny565 said:Interesting to see these straws in the wind of Cruz potentially challenging in Maine of all places...
Personally I think Cruz would stand less chance in a general election than Trump (though admittedly the head-to-head polls are saying something different for now).0 -
Another closed contest, another Cruz victory though...0
-
There are plenty of Leave supporters here who don't call their opponents liars, a fact you are well aware of.MarkSenior said:
You mean engage in debate with the pro Leavers on here who trot out the word liar in every post they make on here .Sean_F said:
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
0 -
Spot on. The hypocrisy is breath taking- G20 says something about BREXIT and its "Project Fear" whilst certain posters on PB make endless statements about the UK being swamped with immigrants if we REMAIN knowing full well that if we leave we will almost certainly end up with a trade deal that makes not a jot of difference to free movement.MarkSenior said:
You mean engage in debate with the pro Leavers on here who trot out the word liar in every post they make on here .Sean_F said:
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
Anyways Mr F, I hope all's well with you this has been one of the weirder periods on PB.Sean_F said:
There are plenty of Leave supporters here who don't call their opponents liars, a fact you are well aware of.MarkSenior said:
You mean engage in debate with the pro Leavers on here who trot out the word liar in every post they make on here .Sean_F said:
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
Liar.Sean_F said:
There are plenty of Leave supporters here who don't call their opponents liars, a fact you are well aware of.MarkSenior said:
You mean engage in debate with the pro Leavers on here who trot out the word liar in every post they make on here .Sean_F said:
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/05/pay-to-stay-tory-climbdown
Yet another retreat. What does Osborne believe in? He has no steel.0 -
Of course when (doesn't look like if at the moment) Trump loses to Cruz tonight in most states, the question will arise as to why that happened.
I think Trump made a big mistake going on the Fox debate and also making a big mistake pitching to a GE audience before the primaries were over.
Softening on immigration and saying the word "flexible" all the time and "changing my position" on top of the Fox videos and attacks that Trump is an impostor, all that in 2 hours in front of national TV was probably what did it.0 -
I am a critic of the EU.Sean_F said:
Why not try engaging with critics of the EU, rather than just calling them names?flightpath01 said:
It was clearly absurd to vote Labour at the general election, but many did.nigel4england said:
Blimey, seems like 45% of voters are nutjobs.flightpath01 said:
You are being as inventive as the nutjob Leavers. And with every post they make the Leavers are betraying themselves as grade a nutjobs. It's not about the EU its about anti Cameron its about anti Cameron Osborne. It's about anti a centrist mainstream Conservative Party. It's about evangelising for the true religion. Laughably they sneer at the Corbynite cult without any sense of self awareness...CD13 said:Despite never voting for Cameron or the Tories, I have no problem with him being a cheer leader for remain and doing everything in his power to keep us in the EU.
But I thought it an insult to every voter's intelligence to pretend he had any intention of conducting serious negotiations to achieve change. It was a childish game of 'Let's humour the loons and fruitcakes, they're not very bright.'
We know politicians believe the voters are fools, but please be subtle about it.
Go ahead and join Peter Bone in applauding and praising George Galloway and supporting Farage in dumping Carswell. You plonkers!
I would not be too fussed about an Area/EFTA - EU arrangement like Norway's. But I know it would be little different to now.
Manic Leavers are majoring on an immigration project fear so need to turn against the EEA exit door. But that is an even bigger leap into the dark for our economy. And this difference is why leave cannot tell us where they want to leave to and have only an airy fairy way to get there anyway.
The plain fact is emerging as I said that for many on the right it is an issue not of the EU but of s desire to take over the Tory party despite it successfully recovering its centrist mainstream position.
And as far as I can see the name calling is coming from Leavers and their target in personalising this referendum is Cameron.0
