politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 25th 2016
Comments
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It is interesting that quite a lot of the media seem rather supportive as if he certainly hasn't been somebody whose name was an "open secret" among everybody but senior management of the BBC. Not the same could be said of when say harris or Hall stories came to light.isam said:0 -
There could be no other solution to that dilemma.isam said:0 -
My only concern was that Memphis would end up with a broken leg. He was totally taking the piss in that second half.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by MemphisDavidL said:Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.
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Seems it's similar to his 2nd order autoregressive that works so well on UK elections, the "sunspot" predictor.RodCrosby said:
Well that's sweet!Charles said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.htmlRodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
Just for you - Prof. Norpoth's view
What a coincidence. I knew he tipped the GOP about 3 years ago.
But 97%?
Gulp...
Maybe combined with betting the farm on the outcome of the NH primary...
No technical paper available yet, but here's something from 2012.
https://primarymodel.wordpress.com/0 -
Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?0
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The leader of the Rotherham child abuse gang,fathered up to 18 babies.
And cameron giving peerages to supporters in the EU ref campaign.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/702982965995937792/photo/10 -
One too many commas gives that sentence an unfortunate meaning.Tykejohnno said:Christ,the leader of the Rotherham child abuse gang,fathered 18 babies.
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What are they leading with? The rising cost of organic non-gm Quinoa?MarqueeMark said:Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?
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Johnathan Portes has got a nerve saying that the data "hidden" is outrageous. He was an actor in the previous Labour government's decision to open the gates to immigration.TCPoliticalBetting said:
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LOLwilliamglenn said:
One too many commas gives that sentence an unfortunate meaning.Tykejohnno said:Christ,the leader of the Rotherham child abuse gang,fathered 18 babies.
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I haven't watched Newsnight for years now or that tired old program called Question Time, but this really shouldn't surprise you. Newsnight lost all their talent with Paxo retiring and people like Michael Crick leaving for Channel 4 along with many others.MarqueeMark said:Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?
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Of former Tory leaders still alive Major will be for Remain alongside Hague, IDS and Howard are for Leavewilliamglenn said:
I never thought I'd say this but an intervention by John Major must be the most valuable political currency in the land at the moment.HYUFD said:Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave
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Both numbers are likely true. Someone comes here, works for six months, and leaves. That's a zero in the migration number, but a new NI number issued.Tykejohnno said:Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Over the past five years 2.25m EU nationals registered for NI number. But official figures show only 1m EU migrants over same period.0 -
The commentary said he had been having intensive training with Ryan GiggsDavidL said:
My only concern was that Memphis would end up with a broken leg. He was totally taking the piss in that second half.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by MemphisDavidL said:Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.
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What are Mrs Portia-Simpson's chances of getting back in?AndyJS said:Election night is about to get underway — in Jamaica:
http://jamaica-elections.com/general/2016/videos/view.php?id=3490 -
Often abused, the 'question be now put' motion, I'm told. My understanding is that once moved and seconded it is generally supposed to be voted upon at once without debate(as the Chairman defends himself)...except where the Chairman feels the matter has not yet been sufficiently discussed they do not have to accept such a motion, for the very purpose that debate should not be unfairly stifled by using it (as a point of natural justice/fairness even if not specified in one's constitutional rules). Obviously I would defer to qualified legal professionals on that however.notme said:If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965
2hrs and 50 minutes into tonights council meeting... You get to see what happens when the chairman/mayor/speaker of a chamber is working in cahoots with the Executive authority... but comes up against someone who wont stand for it.
Essentially there was a list of people wishing to speak, the chairman allowed a guillotine motion which is supposed to be allowed only after all points have been aired. There were over twenty people still wishing to speak..
Quite extraordinary behaviour by the chairman...
By the way, this is as exciting as it gets for local government.
Quite notable how the Chairman's attitude goes from extremely confrontational to more halting in reply at the very detailed point of order challenging his chairmanship.0 -
O/T:
"Tony Blackburn, the veteran radio DJ, said last night that he had been sacked by the BBC after a report into the Jimmy Savile scandal contained allegations that he seduced a teenage girl in the 1970s.
The 73-year-old DJ, who has worked at the BBC for 49 years and most recently hosted a Saturday show on Radio 2, said that the corporation had terminated “all relationships I had with them” and that he was devastated."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/media/article4699077.ece0 -
Lock up your wives...Big_G_NorthWales said:
The commentary said he had been having intensive training with Ryan GiggsDavidL said:
My only concern was that Memphis would end up with a broken leg. He was totally taking the piss in that second half.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by MemphisDavidL said:Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.
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Key would be how many are in use each month. Portes has asked for additional info and that has been refused according to the article as it would upset teh referendum.... If true a very worrying development by the Govt in respect of FOI and having a fair referendum.rcs1000 said:
Both numbers are likely true. Someone comes here, works for six months, and leaves. That's a zero in the migration number, but a new NI number issued.Tykejohnno said:Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Over the past five years 2.25m EU nationals registered for NI number. But official figures show only 1m EU migrants over same period.
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Agreed but for once this slimy chap may have some benefit to the country.perdix said:
Johnathan Portes has got a nerve saying that the data "hidden" is outrageous. He was an actor in the previous Labour government's decision to open the gates to immigration.TCPoliticalBetting said:
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Remember everyone:
Nothing is happening in Rotherham - ditto many other places
Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person - ditto many others
Stafford hospital is safe - ditto many others
The banks are well run
Politicians expenses are honest
Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
There will be no more than 15,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe
Saddam Hussein has WMD
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Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/0 -
They've certainly embraced broadcasting - they even record Town Council meetings, planning inquiries and more on top of a lot of regular committees and sub-committees. Good for them, most will stick to just Council and Cabinet, if that much.notme said:If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965
Recording that much must make their views per broadcast figures look like crap though.0 -
Apple refusing to unlock phones for the FBI....FrancisUrquhart said:
What are they leading with? The rising cost of organic non-gm Quinoa?MarqueeMark said:Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?
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It really is quite difficult to believe thus guy was a brain surgeon.Pulpstar said:Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/0 -
Oh so a breaking hot of the presses story then.MarqueeMark said:
Apple refusing to unlock phones for the FBI....FrancisUrquhart said:
What are they leading with? The rising cost of organic non-gm Quinoa?MarqueeMark said:Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?
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I see the rallying round is going well...
"He has to be defeated. He has to be exposed. He has to be humiliated on national TV in front of 25 million people. How should Cruz and Rubio go after Trump? They must depict Trump as a game-show host out of his depth. They must laugh at his kindergarten-level grasp of national-security policy. They should bait him into putting forth an opinion on Obamacare and then mock him for having held the opposite view that morning on Morning Joe. They should pound him on his four bankruptcies, ridicule his failed Trump University scam that stole tens of thousands of dollars from average Americans, call him on his support for Planned Parenthood, knock him for his bullying, vulgar self-righteousness, laugh at him for not knowing what the nuclear triad is, and guffaw at his inept attempt to revitalize Atlantic City. And when Trump loses his cool, they should do it again and again. And again. Cruz and Rubio must mock Trump until the audience views him as the deranged half-wit that he is."
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431893/cruz-rubio-trump-debate0 -
What's happened to Diane Abbott?
She's looking a little different on QT.0 -
"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a0 -
If it was that easy Trump would have been taken down in the debates a while ago.RodCrosby said:I see the rallying round is going well...
"He has to be defeated. He has to be exposed. He has to be humiliated on national TV in front of 25 million people. How should Cruz and Rubio go after Trump? They must depict Trump as a game-show host out of his depth. They must laugh at his kindergarten-level grasp of national-security policy. They should bait him into putting forth an opinion on Obamacare and then mock him for having held the opposite view that morning on Morning Joe. They should pound him on his four bankruptcies, ridicule his failed Trump University scam that stole tens of thousands of dollars from average Americans, call him on his support for Planned Parenthood, knock him for his bullying, vulgar self-righteousness, laugh at him for not knowing what the nuclear triad is, and guffaw at his inept attempt to revitalize Atlantic City. And when Trump loses his cool, they should do it again and again. And again. Cruz and Rubio must mock Trump until the audience views him as the deranged half-wit that he is."
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431893/cruz-rubio-trump-debate0 -
I think that being a frontbench cheerleader for Jezza is quite wearing.chestnut said:What's happened to Diane Abbott?
She's looking a little different on QT.0 -
The author's byline photo goes perfectly with that rant.RodCrosby said:I see the rallying round is going well...
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431893/cruz-rubio-trump-debate
http://c0.nrostatic.com/sites/default/files/page_2015_200_mawright_square.jpg0 -
The National Review magazine is totally against Trump because the William Buckley tradition is anti-government, pro-war, anti-black and obsessed with purity on anti-abortion, while Trump is none of those things. He doesn't really need the support of any print media these days, just their coverage.0
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"President Trump" poll:
I'm excited at the prospect 16%
Fears of it are exaggerated; he'd be OK 16%
I'm anxious but America is strong and he would not do too much damage 12%
I'm terrified 49%
Don't know 8%
What does it mean to say "if this polling is correct?" This is an exceptionally biased poll. The second and third options are a joke.
Here's an improvement:
How do you feel about the possibility of a victory by Donald Trump in the presidential election?
Very excited
Rather enthusiastic
No strong feelings either way
Rather anxious
Terrified
Then ask the same question about the possibility of a victory by Hillary Clinton, and randomise the order in which the two candidates are mentioned.0 -
Yes three bags full!another_richard said:Remember everyone:
Nothing is happening in Rotherham - ditto many other places
Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person - ditto many others
Stafford hospital is safe - ditto many others
The banks are well run
Politicians expenses are honest
Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
There will be no more than 15,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe
Saddam Hussein has WMD
And lets add to that:
No Westminster VIP Paedophile ring - move along
No corruption at 788 790 Finchley Road
No executives at the BBC knew of Savile's activities
Nothing more to investigate after the Cullen inquiry despite 27 D-notices
We have a free press despite all the D-notices
The Royal family are impeccable, be loyal subjects to the crown
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She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.AndyJS said:"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a0 -
Donald Trump is so completely the alpha male in the field.
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I think she's more used to being on his backseat rather than his frontbench.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that being a frontbench cheerleader for Jezza is quite wearing.chestnut said:What's happened to Diane Abbott?
She's looking a little different on QT.
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Diane Abbott doing her bit for BREXIT I see
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How can it be balanced to have Diane Abbot and Giles Fraser on the same QT panel? They have practically the same views on most issues.0
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That said, she hasn't been appearing that often lately, has she? There was a time it seemed you couldn't go a day without Abbott or Ken popping up, possibly both of them.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that being a frontbench cheerleader for Jezza is quite wearing.chestnut said:What's happened to Diane Abbott?
She's looking a little different on QT.0 -
Some more detail on this turning point coming up on credibility of ECB monetary policy:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/collapse-of-the-eu-is-it-inevitable/
We have around 100 days after the 13th / 14th March to the referendum - is that enough time for the great British public to see that the EU emperor has no clothes?0 -
JHB is really quite good on QT. Good judge of audience.0
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Ha! That's funny!another_richard said:Remember everyone:
Nothing is happening in Rotherham - ditto many other places
Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person - ditto many others
Stafford hospital is safe - ditto many others
The banks are well run
Politicians expenses are honest
Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
There will be no more than 15,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe
Saddam Hussein has WMD
Let's add to the list:
"There's a growing consensus to end the social apartheid implicit in the role of private schools". Like f*ck there is!0 -
I don't think Merkel regards all unilateral decisions as being equal.kle4 said:
She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.AndyJS said:"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a
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Conversely Liz Truss, who I've frequently tipped for leader, just cannot seem to connect with others. Sticks too closely to the brief.0
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Point of pedantry: if agreed by Austria plus 9 others then it is a decalateral decision not a unilateral one.kle4 said:
She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.AndyJS said:"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a
Indeed a recreation of the Austria-Hungarian sphere...0 -
It was used once in an other place that ive been involved in. There was uproar. No mayor/chairman would ever try it again or risk been taken out and shot. You cannot let councils get away with this kind of thing.kle4 said:
Often abused, the 'question be now put' motion, I'm told. My understanding is that once moved and seconded it is generally supposed to be voted upon at once without debate(as the Chairman defends himself)...except where the Chairman feels the matter has not yet been sufficiently discussed they do not have to accept such a motion, for the very purpose that debate should not be unfairly stifled by using it (as a point of natural justice/fairness even if not specified in one's constitutional rules). Obviously I would defer to qualified legal professionals on that however.notme said:If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965
2hrs and 50 minutes into tonights council meeting... You get to see what happens when the chairman/mayor/speaker of a chamber is working in cahoots with the Executive authority... but comes up against someone who wont stand for it.
Essentially there was a list of people wishing to speak, the chairman allowed a guillotine motion which is supposed to be allowed only after all points have been aired. There were over twenty people still wishing to speak..
Quite extraordinary behaviour by the chairman...
By the way, this is as exciting as it gets for local government.
Quite notable how the Chairman's attitude goes from extremely confrontational to more halting in reply at the very detailed point of order challenging his chairmanship.0 -
Julia Hartley Brewer for POTUK !
Great "battered wife" argument from her.0 -
Alongside Rubio's betfair price, surely how Diane Abbot got so far in British politics with a) her views and b) her manner is a modern wonder.0
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LT doesn't seem to understand that most people don't have a clue what 'access to services' actually means.0
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Trump now 3.85 with Betfair.0
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Unilateral decisions taken by Germany are supposed to be accepted later as part of a EU consensus, so really they're not really unilateral, just prophetic, you see.another_richard said:
I don't think Merkel regards all unilateral decisions as being equal.kle4 said:
She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.AndyJS said:"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a
Always better to err on the side of letting people speak than curtail debate, certainly. That meeting linked to was only 3.5 hours long, that's nothing, plenty of time to let a debate go on.notme said:0 -
Talking of modern wonders...Mortimer said:LT doesn't seem to understand that most people don't have a clue what 'access to services' actually means.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o0 -
Charles said:
@Cyclefree
Saw your Carsten news earlier. Depressing. He's already said to Frankfurt that "no power or jobs will leave Frankfurt". Sometimes I think our government should take strategic stakes in companies with a role of national significance. The French don't do everything wrong...
@Cyclefree @rcs1000
Are either of you going to the City for Britain launch at CMC on Monday evening?
My concern with Carsten is his history: serial failure (to put it mildly), far worse than even what is publicly known. The authorities here need to think very hard about what message his appointment would send out to the markets, other regulators and the public. And then they need to grow a spine!
No - I haven't been invited. What is the event?
OTOH if you are going to a KPMG invite to a Fraud in Business Network event on 7 March you get to hear me speak on Rogue Trading and other interesting topics!
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Trump's Top!Pulpstar said:Donald Trump is so completely the alpha male in the field.
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I know it is Poole, and our views here are not exactly wide-ranging on the political spectrum, but there is some serious, serious opposition to the EU in the QT audience.0
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Point of Germany: Only big nations count. Those ten together only count as 1.foxinsoxuk said:
Point of pedantry: if agreed by Austria plus 9 others then it is a decalateral decision not a unilateral one.kle4 said:
She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.AndyJS said:"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a0 -
The only hope Cruz and Rubio have is something like this.Pulpstar said:Donald Trump is so completely the alpha male in the field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0nR0FUzyRI0 -
Isn't that what Michael Foot proposed in 1983 ?Charles said:@Cyclefree
Saw your Carsten news earlier. Depressing. He's already said to Frankfurt that "no power or jobs will leave Frankfurt". Sometimes I think our government should take strategic stakes in companies with a role of national significance. The French don't do everything wrong...
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God damnit Corbyn, that was a Labour policy from 2015 I supported!
Labour plans to retain the posts of police and crime commissioners and make them "more accountable", Jeremy Corbyn has said.
The party's 2015 election manifesto promised to abolish the elected roles, created by the coalition government.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-356617750 -
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On topic, I'm always a fan of councils which have both Independents and 'placename independents'. Come on, if you have enough of a shared platform to not feel you fit in with the all-purpose independent groupings, come up with a better name than that. In Wiltshire we had the Devizes Guardians, which is a better effort.0
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Wow - 27! Didn't know that. I knew about the boat trips to Loch Ness though.hunchman said:
Nothing more to investigate after the Cullen inquiry despite 27 D-notices
We have a free press despite all the D-notices
The Royal family are impeccable, be loyal subjects to the crown
Another one:
They weren't really children's remains at Haut de la Garenne in Jersey - move along.
And
There's free speech, especially where Prince Charles and his, er, "friend" Michael Fawcett are concerned.
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Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd
LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55
Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come
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Dudley St James
Lab 847 UKIP 554 Con 4270 -
It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.MarkSenior said:Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd
LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55
Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come0 -
The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.0
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Here is another reason to vote LEAVE on the 23rd June:
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/02/11/met-office-fears-brexit-would-hit-world-best-climate-models/
And we all believe their climate models are the world's best:
The barbecue summers that never were
No arctic sea ice cover by 2015
The jetstream to move to the north and become less wavy
More hurricanes worldwide
Today's children won't know what snow is
Pull the other one!
Good night all.0 -
Yes by spurning the kippers and flocking to the LDs. Trebles alround!Tykejohnno said:
It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.MarkSenior said:Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd
LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55
Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come0 -
Dudley Kingswinford Con hold
Con 1456 Lab 934 UKIP 262 Green 52
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0
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Flocking to the lib dems - lol up 4 votesfoxinsoxuk said:
Yes by spurning the kippers and flocking to the LDs. Trebles alround!Tykejohnno said:
It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.MarkSenior said:Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd
LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55
Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come0 -
Greater than 50% vote share and 12 times the kipper vote. That will do!Tykejohnno said:
Flocking to the lib dems - lol up 4 votesfoxinsoxuk said:
Yes by spurning the kippers and flocking to the LDs. Trebles alround!Tykejohnno said:
It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.MarkSenior said:Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd
LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55
Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come
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@RodCrosby
@Charles
Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?0 -
Camerons new token buddy Lammy trying to make the case for REMAIN while Portillo laughs in his face0
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Interesting comment on here:
"Last election in Poole rounded to nearest thousand
Conservatives 24,000
UKIP 8,000
Labour 6,000
QT audience seemngly not reflecting this."
http://biasedbbc.org/blog/2016/02/25/question-time-live-chat-33/0 -
There's the "13 Keys" model, andviewcode said:@RodCrosby
@Charles
Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?
Abramowitz's "Time for change" model
Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.0 -
The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.AndyJS said:The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.
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Anyone seen his patients?FrancisUrquhart said:
It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.Pulpstar said:Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/0 -
Daily Telegraph:
Panic sets in among Republicans as poll shows Trump leading Rubio in Florida
New poll shows Donald Trump leading Marco Rubio by 16 points in his home state of Florida0 -
In retrospect what the GOP establishment should have done is persuade Schwarzenegger to run with the response, 'So sue me!' to the obvious charge that he's not eligible. He might have stood a chance of taking the publicity away from Trump for long enough for the mainstream candidates to break through.0
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Useful as ever, Rod. Thank you very much.RodCrosby said:
There's the "13 Keys" model, andviewcode said:@RodCrosby
@Charles
Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?
Abramowitz's "Time for change" model
Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.0 -
Are we sure he didn't practise on himself?RodCrosby said:
Anyone seen his patients?FrancisUrquhart said:
It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.Pulpstar said:Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/0 -
Uh oh - looks like Hillary is not the only one deleting emails. So is Centcom...
Personnel at U.S. Central Command have deleted files and emails amid allegations that intelligence assessments were altered to exaggerate progress against Islamic State militants, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee said Thursday.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/25/house-chairman-military-files-emails-deleted-amid-probe.html0 -
Her most senior post after nearly 30 years in parliament is shadow international debt secretary. Grant shapes, to pick just one charmless, talentless hack, has been chairman of the Conservative party.Mortimer said:Alongside Rubio's betfair price, surely how Diane Abbot got so far in British politics with a) her views and b) her manner is a modern wonder.
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Do you think one of them will drop out after next Tuesday?Tim_B said:
The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.AndyJS said:The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.
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Schwartzenegger is busy right now promoting a smartphone game called 'Mobile Strike'williamglenn said:In retrospect what the GOP establishment should have done is persuade Schwarzenegger to run with the response, 'So sue me!' to the obvious charge that he's not eligible. He might have stood a chance of taking the publicity away from Trump for long enough for the mainstream candidates to break through.
You hear his voice at the end (and he is apparently heavily featured in the game too) saying "Download now from de app stowah"0 -
They're in the...special room. They're ever so happy. We managed to calm them down. Eventually.RodCrosby said:
Anyone seen his patients?FrancisUrquhart said:
It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.Pulpstar said:Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/0 -
Frankly, the "Keys" are too subjective, and liable to ex post facto rationalization. FWIW, they narrowly favour Clinton, maybe...viewcode said:
Useful as ever, Rod. Thank you very much.RodCrosby said:
There's the "13 Keys" model, andviewcode said:@RodCrosby
@Charles
Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?
Abramowitz's "Time for change" model
Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.
Abramowitz has faffed around with his model so much, I'm not sure what it's supposed to show any more. Narrowly favours Trump, I believe...0 -
If Cruz doesn't win Texas, he may well. If Rubio doesn't win Florida, he may well. After Super Tuesday (last time I looked Trump was leading in 12 states, but that may have changed in the last few days) it might be too late to stop Trump.AndyJS said:
Do you think one of them will drop out after next Tuesday?Tim_B said:
The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.AndyJS said:The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.
I'm struggling between Trump and Rubio. My concern about Trump is his temperament. But neither of them could be as bad as what we have now.0 -
He reminds me of the guy who was "looking after" Jackson...viewcode said:
They're in the...special room. They're ever so happy. We managed to calm them down. Eventually.RodCrosby said:
Anyone seen his patients?FrancisUrquhart said:
It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.Pulpstar said:Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/0 -
Because that worked out so well..RodCrosby said:
He reminds me of the guy who was "looking after" Jackson...viewcode said:
They're in the...special room. They're ever so happy. We managed to calm them down. Eventually.RodCrosby said:
Anyone seen his patients?FrancisUrquhart said:
It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.Pulpstar said:Ben Carson's campaign has a few issues to sort out.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/ben-carson-thinks-maybe-his-campaign-was-a-scam/470715/ 0 -
From a GOP point of view, Cruz should drop out before Rubio because there's no way Cruz can compete on the west coast and north-east where about 50% of US voters live.Tim_B said:
If Cruz doesn't win Texas, he may well. If Rubio doesn't win Florida, he may well. After Super Tuesday (last time I looked Trump was leading in 12 states, but that may have changed in the last few days) it might be too late to stop Trump.AndyJS said:
Do you think one of them will drop out after next Tuesday?Tim_B said:
The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.AndyJS said:The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.
I'm struggling between Trump and Rubio. My concern about Trump is his temperament. But neither of them could be as bad as what we have now.0 -
I think you know more about this than I do, but if you recalibrate your model every time a new result comes in, eventually that makes it worse, not better: sacrificing an crude view of the future for a precise view of the past. This is one reason why I think PB should abandon predicting vote share and size of lead and stick to just predicting which one will win.RodCrosby said:
Frankly, the "Keys" are too subjective, and liable to ex post facto rationalization. FWIW, they narrowly favour Clinton, maybe...viewcode said:
Useful as ever, Rod. Thank you very much.RodCrosby said:
There's the "13 Keys" model, andviewcode said:@RodCrosby
@Charles
Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?
Abramowitz's "Time for change" model
Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.
Abramowitz has faffed around with his model so much, I'm not such what it's supposed to show any more. Narrowly favours Trump, I believe...0 -
Reuters:
"EU has 10 days to see progress on migrant crisis or Schengen unravels: EU commissioner"
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-avramopoulos-idUSKCN0VY22T0
