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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 25th 2016

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    isam said:
    It is interesting that quite a lot of the media seem rather supportive as if he certainly hasn't been somebody whose name was an "open secret" among everybody but senior management of the BBC. Not the same could be said of when say harris or Hall stories came to light.
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    isam said:
    There could be no other solution to that dilemma.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,585

    DavidL said:

    Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.

    They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by Memphis
    My only concern was that Memphis would end up with a broken leg. He was totally taking the piss in that second half.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Charles said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:
    On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

    I could cash out for £2k now.

    That figure will almost certainly rise.

    If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

    I may load up some more...
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.html

    Just for you - Prof. Norpoth's view
    Well that's sweet!

    What a coincidence. I knew he tipped the GOP about 3 years ago.

    But 97%?

    Gulp...
    Seems it's similar to his 2nd order autoregressive that works so well on UK elections, the "sunspot" predictor.

    Maybe combined with betting the farm on the outcome of the NH primary...

    No technical paper available yet, but here's something from 2012.
    https://primarymodel.wordpress.com/
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited February 2016
    The leader of the Rotherham child abuse gang,fathered up to 18 babies.

    And cameron giving peerages to supporters in the EU ref campaign.


    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/702982965995937792/photo/1
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355

    Christ,the leader of the Rotherham child abuse gang,fathered 18 babies.

    One too many commas gives that sentence an unfortunate meaning.
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    Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?

    What are they leading with? The rising cost of organic non-gm Quinoa?
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Johnathan Portes has got a nerve saying that the data "hidden" is outrageous. He was an actor in the previous Labour government's decision to open the gates to immigration.



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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Christ,the leader of the Rotherham child abuse gang,fathered 18 babies.

    One too many commas gives that sentence an unfortunate meaning.
    LOL
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?

    I haven't watched Newsnight for years now or that tired old program called Question Time, but this really shouldn't surprise you. Newsnight lost all their talent with Paxo retiring and people like Michael Crick leaving for Channel 4 along with many others.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,334

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave

    I never thought I'd say this but an intervention by John Major must be the most valuable political currency in the land at the moment.
    Of former Tory leaders still alive Major will be for Remain alongside Hague, IDS and Howard are for Leave
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324

    Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
    Over the past five years 2.25m EU nationals registered for NI number. But official figures show only 1m EU migrants over same period.

    Both numbers are likely true. Someone comes here, works for six months, and leaves. That's a zero in the migration number, but a new NI number issued.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.

    They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by Memphis
    My only concern was that Memphis would end up with a broken leg. He was totally taking the piss in that second half.
    The commentary said he had been having intensive training with Ryan Giggs
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    AndyJS said:

    Election night is about to get underway — in Jamaica:

    http://jamaica-elections.com/general/2016/videos/view.php?id=349

    What are Mrs Portia-Simpson's chances of getting back in?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited February 2016
    notme said:

    If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
    http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965

    2hrs and 50 minutes into tonights council meeting... You get to see what happens when the chairman/mayor/speaker of a chamber is working in cahoots with the Executive authority... but comes up against someone who wont stand for it.

    Essentially there was a list of people wishing to speak, the chairman allowed a guillotine motion which is supposed to be allowed only after all points have been aired. There were over twenty people still wishing to speak..

    Quite extraordinary behaviour by the chairman...

    By the way, this is as exciting as it gets for local government.

    Often abused, the 'question be now put' motion, I'm told. My understanding is that once moved and seconded it is generally supposed to be voted upon at once without debate(as the Chairman defends himself)...except where the Chairman feels the matter has not yet been sufficiently discussed they do not have to accept such a motion, for the very purpose that debate should not be unfairly stifled by using it (as a point of natural justice/fairness even if not specified in one's constitutional rules). Obviously I would defer to qualified legal professionals on that however.

    Quite notable how the Chairman's attitude goes from extremely confrontational to more halting in reply at the very detailed point of order challenging his chairmanship.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    O/T:

    "Tony Blackburn, the veteran radio DJ, said last night that he had been sacked by the BBC after a report into the Jimmy Savile scandal contained allegations that he seduced a teenage girl in the 1970s.
    The 73-year-old DJ, who has worked at the BBC for 49 years and most recently hosted a Saturday show on Radio 2, said that the corporation had terminated “all relationships I had with them” and that he was devastated."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/media/article4699077.ece
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.

    They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by Memphis
    My only concern was that Memphis would end up with a broken leg. He was totally taking the piss in that second half.
    The commentary said he had been having intensive training with Ryan Giggs
    Lock up your wives...
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    rcs1000 said:

    Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
    Over the past five years 2.25m EU nationals registered for NI number. But official figures show only 1m EU migrants over same period.

    Both numbers are likely true. Someone comes here, works for six months, and leaves. That's a zero in the migration number, but a new NI number issued.
    Key would be how many are in use each month. Portes has asked for additional info and that has been refused according to the article as it would upset teh referendum.... If true a very worrying development by the Govt in respect of FOI and having a fair referendum.
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    perdix said:

    Johnathan Portes has got a nerve saying that the data "hidden" is outrageous. He was an actor in the previous Labour government's decision to open the gates to immigration.

    Agreed but for once this slimy chap may have some benefit to the country.
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    Remember everyone:

    Nothing is happening in Rotherham - ditto many other places
    Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person - ditto many others
    Stafford hospital is safe - ditto many others
    The banks are well run
    Politicians expenses are honest
    Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
    There will be no more than 15,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe
    Saddam Hussein has WMD
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited February 2016
    notme said:

    If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
    http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965

    They've certainly embraced broadcasting - they even record Town Council meetings, planning inquiries and more on top of a lot of regular committees and sub-committees. Good for them, most will stick to just Council and Cabinet, if that much.

    Recording that much must make their views per broadcast figures look like crap though.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?

    What are they leading with? The rising cost of organic non-gm Quinoa?
    Apple refusing to unlock phones for the FBI....
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    Pulpstar said:
    It really is quite difficult to believe thus guy was a brain surgeon.
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    Really - Newsnight not leading with the Savile report?

    What are they leading with? The rising cost of organic non-gm Quinoa?
    Apple refusing to unlock phones for the FBI....
    Oh so a breaking hot of the presses story then.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I see the rallying round is going well...

    "He has to be defeated. He has to be exposed. He has to be humiliated on national TV in front of 25 million people. How should Cruz and Rubio go after Trump? They must depict Trump as a game-show host out of his depth. They must laugh at his kindergarten-level grasp of national-security policy. They should bait him into putting forth an opinion on Obamacare and then mock him for having held the opposite view that morning on Morning Joe. They should pound him on his four bankruptcies, ridicule his failed Trump University scam that stole tens of thousands of dollars from average Americans, call him on his support for Planned Parenthood, knock him for his bullying, vulgar self-righteousness, laugh at him for not knowing what the nuclear triad is, and guffaw at his inept attempt to revitalize Atlantic City. And when Trump loses his cool, they should do it again and again. And again. Cruz and Rubio must mock Trump until the audience views him as the deranged half-wit that he is."

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431893/cruz-rubio-trump-debate
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    What's happened to Diane Abbott?

    She's looking a little different on QT.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    RodCrosby said:

    I see the rallying round is going well...

    "He has to be defeated. He has to be exposed. He has to be humiliated on national TV in front of 25 million people. How should Cruz and Rubio go after Trump? They must depict Trump as a game-show host out of his depth. They must laugh at his kindergarten-level grasp of national-security policy. They should bait him into putting forth an opinion on Obamacare and then mock him for having held the opposite view that morning on Morning Joe. They should pound him on his four bankruptcies, ridicule his failed Trump University scam that stole tens of thousands of dollars from average Americans, call him on his support for Planned Parenthood, knock him for his bullying, vulgar self-righteousness, laugh at him for not knowing what the nuclear triad is, and guffaw at his inept attempt to revitalize Atlantic City. And when Trump loses his cool, they should do it again and again. And again. Cruz and Rubio must mock Trump until the audience views him as the deranged half-wit that he is."

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431893/cruz-rubio-trump-debate

    If it was that easy Trump would have been taken down in the debates a while ago.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    What's happened to Diane Abbott?

    She's looking a little different on QT.

    I think that being a frontbench cheerleader for Jezza is quite wearing.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    edited February 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    I see the rallying round is going well...

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431893/cruz-rubio-trump-debate

    The author's byline photo goes perfectly with that rant.

    http://c0.nrostatic.com/sites/default/files/page_2015_200_mawright_square.jpg
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,090
    The National Review magazine is totally against Trump because the William Buckley tradition is anti-government, pro-war, anti-black and obsessed with purity on anti-abortion, while Trump is none of those things. He doesn't really need the support of any print media these days, just their coverage.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016
    "President Trump" poll:

    I'm excited at the prospect 16%
    Fears of it are exaggerated; he'd be OK 16%
    I'm anxious but America is strong and he would not do too much damage 12%
    I'm terrified 49%
    Don't know 8%

    What does it mean to say "if this polling is correct?" This is an exceptionally biased poll. The second and third options are a joke.

    Here's an improvement:

    How do you feel about the possibility of a victory by Donald Trump in the presidential election?

    Very excited
    Rather enthusiastic
    No strong feelings either way
    Rather anxious
    Terrified

    Then ask the same question about the possibility of a victory by Hillary Clinton, and randomise the order in which the two candidates are mentioned.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Remember everyone:

    Nothing is happening in Rotherham - ditto many other places
    Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person - ditto many others
    Stafford hospital is safe - ditto many others
    The banks are well run
    Politicians expenses are honest
    Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
    There will be no more than 15,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe
    Saddam Hussein has WMD

    Yes three bags full!

    And lets add to that:

    No Westminster VIP Paedophile ring - move along
    No corruption at 788 790 Finchley Road
    No executives at the BBC knew of Savile's activities
    Nothing more to investigate after the Cullen inquiry despite 27 D-notices
    We have a free press despite all the D-notices
    The Royal family are impeccable, be loyal subjects to the crown
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    AndyJS said:

    "The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a

    She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    Donald Trump is so completely the alpha male in the field.

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    chestnut said:

    What's happened to Diane Abbott?

    She's looking a little different on QT.

    I think that being a frontbench cheerleader for Jezza is quite wearing.
    I think she's more used to being on his backseat rather than his frontbench.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    Diane Abbott doing her bit for BREXIT I see :D
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How can it be balanced to have Diane Abbot and Giles Fraser on the same QT panel? They have practically the same views on most issues.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    chestnut said:

    What's happened to Diane Abbott?

    She's looking a little different on QT.

    I think that being a frontbench cheerleader for Jezza is quite wearing.
    That said, she hasn't been appearing that often lately, has she? There was a time it seemed you couldn't go a day without Abbott or Ken popping up, possibly both of them.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Some more detail on this turning point coming up on credibility of ECB monetary policy:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/collapse-of-the-eu-is-it-inevitable/

    We have around 100 days after the 13th / 14th March to the referendum - is that enough time for the great British public to see that the EU emperor has no clothes?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    JHB is really quite good on QT. Good judge of audience.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited February 2016

    Remember everyone:

    Nothing is happening in Rotherham - ditto many other places
    Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person - ditto many others
    Stafford hospital is safe - ditto many others
    The banks are well run
    Politicians expenses are honest
    Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair
    There will be no more than 15,000 immigrants from Eastern Europe
    Saddam Hussein has WMD

    Ha! That's funny! :)

    Let's add to the list:

    "There's a growing consensus to end the social apartheid implicit in the role of private schools". Like f*ck there is!
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    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a

    She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.
    I don't think Merkel regards all unilateral decisions as being equal.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Conversely Liz Truss, who I've frequently tipped for leader, just cannot seem to connect with others. Sticks too closely to the brief.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2016
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a

    She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.
    Point of pedantry: if agreed by Austria plus 9 others then it is a decalateral decision not a unilateral one.

    Indeed a recreation of the Austria-Hungarian sphere...
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
    http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965

    2hrs and 50 minutes into tonights council meeting... You get to see what happens when the chairman/mayor/speaker of a chamber is working in cahoots with the Executive authority... but comes up against someone who wont stand for it.

    Essentially there was a list of people wishing to speak, the chairman allowed a guillotine motion which is supposed to be allowed only after all points have been aired. There were over twenty people still wishing to speak..

    Quite extraordinary behaviour by the chairman...

    By the way, this is as exciting as it gets for local government.

    Often abused, the 'question be now put' motion, I'm told. My understanding is that once moved and seconded it is generally supposed to be voted upon at once without debate(as the Chairman defends himself)...except where the Chairman feels the matter has not yet been sufficiently discussed they do not have to accept such a motion, for the very purpose that debate should not be unfairly stifled by using it (as a point of natural justice/fairness even if not specified in one's constitutional rules). Obviously I would defer to qualified legal professionals on that however.

    Quite notable how the Chairman's attitude goes from extremely confrontational to more halting in reply at the very detailed point of order challenging his chairmanship.
    It was used once in an other place that ive been involved in. There was uproar. No mayor/chairman would ever try it again or risk been taken out and shot. You cannot let councils get away with this kind of thing.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    Julia Hartley Brewer for POTUK !

    Great "battered wife" argument from her.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Alongside Rubio's betfair price, surely how Diane Abbot got so far in British politics with a) her views and b) her manner is a modern wonder.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    LT doesn't seem to understand that most people don't have a clue what 'access to services' actually means.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Trump now 3.85 with Betfair.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a

    She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.
    I don't think Merkel regards all unilateral decisions as being equal.

    Unilateral decisions taken by Germany are supposed to be accepted later as part of a EU consensus, so really they're not really unilateral, just prophetic, you see.
    notme said:

    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    If anernment.

    Often ab
    It was used once in an other place that ive been involved in. There was uproar. No mayor/chairman would ever try it again or risk been taken out and shot. You cannot let councils get away with this kind of thing.
    Always better to err on the side of letting people speak than curtail debate, certainly. That meeting linked to was only 3.5 hours long, that's nothing, plenty of time to let a debate go on.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    Mortimer said:

    LT doesn't seem to understand that most people don't have a clue what 'access to services' actually means.

    Talking of modern wonders...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_wkO4hk07o
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    Saw your Carsten news earlier. Depressing. He's already said to Frankfurt that "no power or jobs will leave Frankfurt". Sometimes I think our government should take strategic stakes in companies with a role of national significance. The French don't do everything wrong...

    @Cyclefree @rcs1000

    Are either of you going to the City for Britain launch at CMC on Monday evening?


    My concern with Carsten is his history: serial failure (to put it mildly), far worse than even what is publicly known. The authorities here need to think very hard about what message his appointment would send out to the markets, other regulators and the public. And then they need to grow a spine!

    No - I haven't been invited. What is the event?

    OTOH if you are going to a KPMG invite to a Fraud in Business Network event on 7 March you get to hear me speak on Rogue Trading and other interesting topics!
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    Pulpstar said:

    Donald Trump is so completely the alpha male in the field.

    Trump's Top!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    I know it is Poole, and our views here are not exactly wide-ranging on the political spectrum, but there is some serious, serious opposition to the EU in the QT audience.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin, which fears it could torpedo Chancellor Merkel’s drive for an EU-wide solution to the refugee crisis."

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18768b9a-dbdd-11e5-9ba8-3abc1e7247e4.html#axzz41Dtynv5a

    She's got some cheek to be angry at unilateral decisions.
    Point of pedantry: if agreed by Austria plus 9 others then it is a decalateral decision not a unilateral one.
    Point of Germany: Only big nations count. Those ten together only count as 1.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    Donald Trump is so completely the alpha male in the field.

    The only hope Cruz and Rubio have is something like this.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0nR0FUzyRI
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    Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    Saw your Carsten news earlier. Depressing. He's already said to Frankfurt that "no power or jobs will leave Frankfurt". Sometimes I think our government should take strategic stakes in companies with a role of national significance. The French don't do everything wrong...

    Isn't that what Michael Foot proposed in 1983 ?

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    God damnit Corbyn, that was a Labour policy from 2015 I supported!

    Labour plans to retain the posts of police and crime commissioners and make them "more accountable", Jeremy Corbyn has said.

    The party's 2015 election manifesto promised to abolish the elected roles, created by the coalition government.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35661775
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,053
    Offtopic:

    Rocket time !

    http://www.spacex.com/webcast
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    On topic, I'm always a fan of councils which have both Independents and 'placename independents'. Come on, if you have enough of a shared platform to not feel you fit in with the all-purpose independent groupings, come up with a better name than that. In Wiltshire we had the Devizes Guardians, which is a better effort.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    hunchman said:


    Nothing more to investigate after the Cullen inquiry despite 27 D-notices
    We have a free press despite all the D-notices
    The Royal family are impeccable, be loyal subjects to the crown

    Wow - 27! Didn't know that. I knew about the boat trips to Loch Ness though.

    Another one:

    They weren't really children's remains at Haut de la Garenne in Jersey - move along.

    And

    There's free speech, especially where Prince Charles and his, er, "friend" Michael Fawcett are concerned.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd

    LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55

    Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Dudley St James
    Lab 847 UKIP 554 Con 427
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd

    LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55

    Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come

    It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Trump now 3.85 with Betfair.

    Yeah, it was me...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Here is another reason to vote LEAVE on the 23rd June:

    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/02/11/met-office-fears-brexit-would-hit-world-best-climate-models/

    And we all believe their climate models are the world's best:

    The barbecue summers that never were
    No arctic sea ice cover by 2015
    The jetstream to move to the north and become less wavy
    More hurricanes worldwide
    Today's children won't know what snow is

    Pull the other one!

    Good night all.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd

    LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55

    Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come

    It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.
    Yes by spurning the kippers and flocking to the LDs. Trebles alround!
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Dudley Kingswinford Con hold

    Con 1456 Lab 934 UKIP 262 Green 52

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    O/T:

    Bucks Fizz on Top of the Pops 1981:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcfour
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd

    LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55

    Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come

    It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.
    Yes by spurning the kippers and flocking to the LDs. Trebles alround!
    Flocking to the lib dems - lol up 4 votes
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    Conversely Liz Truss, who I've frequently tipped for leader, just cannot seem to connect with others. Sticks too closely to the brief.

    A Tory Trollop for Leader! Really?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Stratford Studley LD gain from Con , Labour move to 2nd

    LD 632 Lab 256 Con 233 Ind 66 UKIP 55

    Dudley St James Lab hold figures to come

    It seems the con vote has gone down since camerons EU deal,it looks like the people can smell bullsh!t.
    Yes by spurning the kippers and flocking to the LDs. Trebles alround!
    Flocking to the lib dems - lol up 4 votes
    Greater than 50% vote share and 12 times the kipper vote. That will do!

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,240
    @RodCrosby
    @Charles

    Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Camerons new token buddy Lammy trying to make the case for REMAIN while Portillo laughs in his face
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting comment on here:

    "Last election in Poole rounded to nearest thousand
    Conservatives 24,000
    UKIP 8,000
    Labour 6,000

    QT audience seemngly not reflecting this."


    http://biasedbbc.org/blog/2016/02/25/question-time-live-chat-33/
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2016
    viewcode said:

    @RodCrosby
    @Charles

    Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?

    There's the "13 Keys" model, and

    Abramowitz's "Time for change" model

    Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.

    The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Pulpstar said:
    It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.
    Anyone seen his patients?
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    Daily Telegraph:

    Panic sets in among Republicans as poll shows Trump leading Rubio in Florida
    New poll shows Donald Trump leading Marco Rubio by 16 points in his home state of Florida
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    In retrospect what the GOP establishment should have done is persuade Schwarzenegger to run with the response, 'So sue me!' to the obvious charge that he's not eligible. He might have stood a chance of taking the publicity away from Trump for long enough for the mainstream candidates to break through.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,240
    RodCrosby said:

    viewcode said:

    @RodCrosby
    @Charles

    Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?

    There's the "13 Keys" model, and

    Abramowitz's "Time for change" model

    Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.
    Useful as ever, Rod. Thank you very much.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:
    It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.
    Anyone seen his patients?
    Are we sure he didn't practise on himself?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Uh oh - looks like Hillary is not the only one deleting emails. So is Centcom...

    Personnel at U.S. Central Command have deleted files and emails amid allegations that intelligence assessments were altered to exaggerate progress against Islamic State militants, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee said Thursday.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/25/house-chairman-military-files-emails-deleted-amid-probe.html
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    Mortimer said:

    Alongside Rubio's betfair price, surely how Diane Abbot got so far in British politics with a) her views and b) her manner is a modern wonder.

    Her most senior post after nearly 30 years in parliament is shadow international debt secretary. Grant shapes, to pick just one charmless, talentless hack, has been chairman of the Conservative party.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.

    The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.
    Do you think one of them will drop out after next Tuesday?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    In retrospect what the GOP establishment should have done is persuade Schwarzenegger to run with the response, 'So sue me!' to the obvious charge that he's not eligible. He might have stood a chance of taking the publicity away from Trump for long enough for the mainstream candidates to break through.

    Schwartzenegger is busy right now promoting a smartphone game called 'Mobile Strike'

    You hear his voice at the end (and he is apparently heavily featured in the game too) saying "Download now from de app stowah"
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,240
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:
    It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.
    Anyone seen his patients?
    They're in the...special room. They're ever so happy. We managed to calm them down. Eventually.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2016
    viewcode said:

    RodCrosby said:

    viewcode said:

    @RodCrosby
    @Charles

    Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?

    There's the "13 Keys" model, and

    Abramowitz's "Time for change" model

    Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.
    Useful as ever, Rod. Thank you very much.
    Frankly, the "Keys" are too subjective, and liable to ex post facto rationalization. FWIW, they narrowly favour Clinton, maybe...

    Abramowitz has faffed around with his model so much, I'm not sure what it's supposed to show any more. Narrowly favours Trump, I believe...
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.

    The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.
    Do you think one of them will drop out after next Tuesday?
    If Cruz doesn't win Texas, he may well. If Rubio doesn't win Florida, he may well. After Super Tuesday (last time I looked Trump was leading in 12 states, but that may have changed in the last few days) it might be too late to stop Trump.

    I'm struggling between Trump and Rubio. My concern about Trump is his temperament. But neither of them could be as bad as what we have now.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    viewcode said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:
    It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.
    Anyone seen his patients?
    They're in the...special room. They're ever so happy. We managed to calm them down. Eventually.
    He reminds me of the guy who was "looking after" Jackson...
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,240
    RodCrosby said:

    viewcode said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:
    It really is quite difficult to believe this guy was a brain surgeon.
    Anyone seen his patients?
    They're in the...special room. They're ever so happy. We managed to calm them down. Eventually.
    He reminds me of the guy who was "looking after" Jackson...
    Because that worked out so well.. :)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    The way to stop Trump is for the elite / establishment to ignore him for five minutes. Every time they express how horrified they are by him his ratings go up.

    The way to stop Trump is for either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw, otherwise they are splitting the anti-Trump vote. Right now they are racking up a few delegates as they are awarded proportionally, but as of 3/15 all primaries are winner take all and Trump will win in a walk.
    Do you think one of them will drop out after next Tuesday?
    If Cruz doesn't win Texas, he may well. If Rubio doesn't win Florida, he may well. After Super Tuesday (last time I looked Trump was leading in 12 states, but that may have changed in the last few days) it might be too late to stop Trump.

    I'm struggling between Trump and Rubio. My concern about Trump is his temperament. But neither of them could be as bad as what we have now.
    From a GOP point of view, Cruz should drop out before Rubio because there's no way Cruz can compete on the west coast and north-east where about 50% of US voters live.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,240
    RodCrosby said:

    viewcode said:

    RodCrosby said:

    viewcode said:

    @RodCrosby
    @Charles

    Thank you for the link to the Mail article of the Norpoth projection. In 2015UKGE there was an entire fleet of modelers predicting the outcome, but I am not aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS, except possibly for Silver. Are you aware of any modelers predicting 2016POTUS and if so, who are they?

    There's the "13 Keys" model, and

    Abramowitz's "Time for change" model

    Others will take as their inputs the polls in June.
    Useful as ever, Rod. Thank you very much.
    Frankly, the "Keys" are too subjective, and liable to ex post facto rationalization. FWIW, they narrowly favour Clinton, maybe...

    Abramowitz has faffed around with his model so much, I'm not such what it's supposed to show any more. Narrowly favours Trump, I believe...
    I think you know more about this than I do, but if you recalibrate your model every time a new result comes in, eventually that makes it worse, not better: sacrificing an crude view of the future for a precise view of the past. This is one reason why I think PB should abandon predicting vote share and size of lead and stick to just predicting which one will win.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Reuters:

    "EU has 10 days to see progress on migrant crisis or Schengen unravels: EU commissioner"

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-avramopoulos-idUSKCN0VY22T
This discussion has been closed.