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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 25th 2016

Kingswinford North and Wall Heath (Con defence) and St. James (Lab defence) on Dudley
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 25, United Kingdom Independence Party 7, Independent 1, Green Party 1 (Labour majority of 4)
Result of ward at last election

Read the full story here

Philip_Thompson

First like Remain.

Philip_Thompson

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

Speedy

Tories may lose 2-3 council seats tonight.
Their position looks vulnerable in them.

Ave_it

Man U

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Speedy

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

Ave_it

Man U new favourites

HYUFD

Wisconsin general election

Clinton 47
Trump 37

Clinton 43
Cruz 43

Clinton 44
Rubio 43


Sanders 54
Trump 34

Sanders 53
Cruz 35

Sanders 53
Rubio 35
http://fox6now.com/2016/02/25/new-marquette-university-law-school-poll/

Philip_Thompson

It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

I think it is pretty impossible actually, that's why I didn't want Cameron to win a majority, and thought Nabavi was insane to recommend people who wanted to leave the EU voted for him

The "UKIP" vote is far bigger than 13% though.. many people who would have voted UKIP had a Miliband govt been a non runner voted Tory, as Cameroons who champion the Salmond/Miliband ad will tell you

Wanderer

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Casino_Royale

Philip_Thompson said:

It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?

Vanilla messaged you.

Polruan

Philip_Thompson said:

It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?

From the context we can deduce it is both smaller than a football (presumably a rugby ball-shaped thing) yet larger than one would reasonably conceive possible for a belt buckle.

Philip_Thompson

Ave_it said:

Man U new favourites

Of course if Midtylland get one more then ManUre will need three more to go through.

Wanderer

Polruan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?

From the context we can deduce it is both smaller than a football (presumably a rugby ball-shaped thing) yet larger than one would reasonably conceive possible for a belt buckle.

forensic dissection

ThreeQuidder

Philip_Thompson said:

It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wilson-NFL-Micro-American-Football/dp/B00YCIFOCK#featureBulletsAndDetailBullets_secondary_view_div_1456433045686

136mm x 90mm, apparently.

MarkSenior

Interesting set of candidates in the Studley by election .
The Independent candidate , Nick Moon , is the previous Conservative councillor for the ward who resigned because he was too busy to do the job as a councillor . He objected to the Conservatives being unable to find a Conservative to stand as his replacwmwnt . Instead they chose Paul Beaman , the Lib Dem candidate last May and a former Lib Dem councillor for the former combined Studley ward .He is also chairman of Studley P C which is another source of friction between himself and Mr Moon .
The Lib Dem candidate is Hazel Wright , another former Lib Dem councillor for the former Studley ward who narrowly lost in the new Studley with Mappleborough ward last May .

HYUFD

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotes

Wanderer

HYUFD said:

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotes

Depends on whether one slices by age or socio-economic status doesn't it? Remain leads with ABs, Leave with >65s.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotes

I think that's fair.

isam

Man Utd vs Arsenal
Herrera FGS 14/1 is a good bet

taffys

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

Why is it an amazing quote? What's wrong with wanting to uproot the US establishment?

Wanderer

MarkSenior said:

Interesting set of candidates in the Studley by election .
The Independent candidate , Nick Moon , is the previous Conservative councillor for the ward who resigned because he was too busy to do the job as a councillor . He objected to the Conservatives being unable to find a Conservative to stand as his replacwmwnt . Instead they chose Paul Beaman , the Lib Dem candidate last May and a former Lib Dem councillor for the former combined Studley ward .He is also chairman of Studley P C which is another source of friction between himself and Mr Moon .
The Lib Dem candidate is Hazel Wright , another former Lib Dem councillor for the former Studley ward who narrowly lost in the new Studley with Mappleborough ward last May .

That's not so far from where I live.

I love the bedroom-farce-like drama of local elections.

Ave_it

MATA = LEAVE

RodCrosby

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

dr_spyn

Ave_it said:

MATA = LEAVE

Man U leave Europe

HYUFD

Wanderer said:

HYUFD said:

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotes

Depends on whether one slices by age or socio-economic status doesn't it? Remain leads with ABs, Leave with >65s.

Indeed, so they cancel each other out

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotes

I think that's fair.

Yes, that is how it looks

Casino_Royale

@RodCrosby

I'm jealous of your money.

tlg86

isam said:

Man Utd vs Arsenal
Herrera FGS 14/1 is a good bet

I just had a look at no goalscorer and the best you can get is 15/2 - damn these smart bookies!

Pulpstar

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...

Philip_Thompson

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Today yes. But Remain is relentlessly campaigning to convince certain voters. Leave so far (and especially GO/Farage/isam version of Leave) is preferring to ignore certain voters and try and convince non-voters.

Those two campaigning techniques have been tried and tested to death. Only one of those tried and tested techniques works, campaign to certain voters. Appeal to non-voters too if you can, but be unrelentingly positive to those who vote.

If Leave target non-voters and Remain target voters then it will be an AV ref/1975 ref style of landslide victory for Remain.

isam

https://twitter.com/danhannanmep/status/701012628768997377

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

You have done very well.

I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.

Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.

isam

tlg86 said:

isam said:

Man Utd vs Arsenal
Herrera FGS 14/1 is a good bet

I just had a look at no goalscorer and the best you can get is 15/2 - damn these smart bookies!

Herrera surely on pens now

Casino_Royale

Ave_it said:

MATA = LEAVE

Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!

Pulpstar

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

You have done very well.

I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.

Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.

My "regular savers" should be available before long.

Wanderer

Philip_Thompson said:

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Today yes. But Remain is relentlessly campaigning to convince certain voters. Leave so far (and especially GO/Farage/isam version of Leave) is preferring to ignore certain voters and try and convince non-voters.

Those two campaigning techniques have been tried and tested to death. Only one of those tried and tested techniques works, campaign to certain voters. Appeal to non-voters too if you can, but be unrelentingly positive to those who vote.

If Leave target non-voters and Remain target voters then it will be an AV ref/1975 ref style of landslide victory for Remain.

I see what you mean. Yes, Remain is campaigning with far better focus. I don't think it's a sure thing though because:

There's a long-standing underlying dislike of the EU in the population
Leave might get its act together (tbh I think this is a tiny risk)
Random events are far more likely to favour Leave than Remain

Wanderer

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

You have done very well.

I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.

Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.

My "regular savers" should be available before long.

As a small-timer I will make £200 on Trump nomination and £400 if he wins the Presidency. I will be annoyed if he dies.

Casino_Royale

FWIW, my prediction is the final Tory split will be 184 Remain to 146 Leave:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=450656551

So 44% of the Tory parliamentary party voting for Leave.

I think that's bad for UKIP, and for the Leadership.

Tykejohnno

FPT -

TCPoliticalBetting said:
» show previous quotes
I wonder if an organisation such as Migration Watch have a bombshell of a report yet to come out into the effects of immigration on pay rates and housing costs?



Or on schools,in bradford the schools are in crisis with population increase and migration from Easern Europe.

The leave camp should be hitting home on this and things you have pointed out from around the country.

Quality of life for people is a Big issue.


District expected to need 40,000 extra places by 2020

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/8457301.Crisis_looms_over_Bradford_school_places_shortage/#comments-anchor

Plans to ease pressure on some school rolls set to be agreed by Bradford councillors

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/14249251.Plans_to_ease_pressure_on_some_school_rolls_set_to_be_agreed_by_Bradford_councillors/#comments-anchor

Ave_it

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

MATA = LEAVE

Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!

Cameron - hero on Europe!

Next stop - kick out Osborne!

#handsoffthepension

Tykejohnno

Ave_it said:

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

MATA = LEAVE

Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!

Cameron - hero on Europe!

Next stop - kick out Osborne!

#handsoffthepension

So your on the remain side ?

Pulpstar

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

You have done very well.

I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.

Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.

My "regular savers" should be available before long.

As a small-timer I will make £200 on Trump nomination and £400 if he wins the Presidency. I will be annoyed if he dies.

Thats my normal stakes, but my POTUS book has sort of grown to be a bit of a monster.

Ave_it

Tykejohnno said:

Ave_it said:

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

MATA = LEAVE

Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!

Cameron - hero on Europe!

Next stop - kick out Osborne!

#handsoffthepension

So your on the remain side ?

Of course!

taffys

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html

Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.

RodCrosby

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...

About £1.5k @ 2.1 for the nom, £3.5k @ 6.2 for POTUS

What I'm really looking forward to, of course, is Trump's inauguration speech.

"Forget that other guy. You know, he never really was president..."

"Oh, yeah..."

"Oh, yeah..."

Anyone give me odds? (^_-)

Casino_Royale

Ave_it said:

Casino_Royale said:

Ave_it said:

MATA = LEAVE

Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!

Cameron - hero on Europe!

Next stop - kick out Osborne!

#handsoffthepension

Agree with the second bit!

MP_SE

taffys said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html

Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.

I will believe it when I see it:

in response to the series of Asian sex abuse gangs uncovered in towns across the country in recent years – there is likely to be an “acceleration of passport strike-outs and potential deportations”.

tlg86

isam said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

Man Utd vs Arsenal
Herrera FGS 14/1 is a good bet

I just had a look at no goalscorer and the best you can get is 15/2 - damn these smart bookies!

Herrera surely on pens now

If Dean was ref - and not just fourth official - that would be a dead cert!

isam

taffys said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html

Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.

I assumed they were British born of Pakistani heritage

Casino_Royale

I find Jesse Norman's position interesting. He seems the only Tory MP to have made a virtue out of staying on the fence.

I can't help but remember this tip, from the man who tipped Cameron right back in 2003:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/could-jesse-norman-be-the-next-tory-leader/

Speedy

Trump is building up his GE campaign:

Robert Costa ‏@costareports 23h23 hours ago
.@WilliamJBennett spoke by phone with Trump today, tells WaPo that call was coordinated by casino magnate Steve Wynn, a mutual friend.

Robert Costa ‏@costareports 23h23 hours ago
Bennett & Trump don't agree on Common Core. But Bennett, a fmr drug czar, said they did discuss heroin epidemic. Called DT "tough" on issue

And a pointer for the VP place:

Robert Costa ‏@costareports 20m20 minutes ago
Sarah Huckabee is joining the Trump campaign as a senior adviser... she managed her father's bid, is close w/ conservative leaders

taffys

isam said:

taffys said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html

Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.

I assumed they were British born of Pakistani heritage</blockquote

Me too but it would appear not. There could be many deportations, if the article is correct, as these are not Brit born citizens in many cases.

rcs1000

RodCrosby said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...

About £1.5k @ 2.1 for the nom, £3.5k @ 6.2 for POTUS

What I'm really looking forward to, of course, is Trump's inauguration speech.

"Forget that other guy. You know, he never really was president..."

"Oh, yeah..."

"Oh, yeah..."

Anyone give me odds? (^_-)

I'm wondering if the State of the Union will be extemporised when Trump is President

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

You have done very well.

I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.

Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.

My "regular savers" should be available before long.

As a small-timer I will make £200 on Trump nomination and £400 if he wins the Presidency. I will be annoyed if he dies.

Thats my normal stakes, but my POTUS book has sort of grown to be a bit of a monster.

600 (once commission is taken out) nom / 500 presidency

Ave_it

#rashford saves van gaal

isam

Casino_Royale said:

I find Jesse Norman's position interesting. He seems the only Tory MP to have made a virtue out of staying on the fence.

I can't help but remember this tip, from the man who tipped Cameron right back in 2003:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/could-jesse-norman-be-the-next-tory-leader/

I said earlier in the week, I find it very surprising many more aren't saying "no bet"... having an opinion on everything esp at small margins, must be a sign of weakness

RodCrosby

rcs1000 said:

RodCrosby said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?

If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !

Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...

About £1.5k @ 2.1 for the nom, £3.5k @ 6.2 for POTUS

What I'm really looking forward to, of course, is Trump's inauguration speech.

"Forget that other guy. You know, he never really was president..."

"Oh, yeah..."

"Oh, yeah..."

Anyone give me odds? (^_-)

I'm wondering if the State of the Union will be extemporised when Trump is President

I heard he's having his inauguration on the roof of Trump Tower in Vegas.

Being sworn in by Sherriff Joe Arpaio...

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Wanderer said:

HYUFD said:

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

Wanderer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting

Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote

That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.

If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.

If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.

In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.

I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.

That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?

Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.

Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.

Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to vote

If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?

Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.

Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.

Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotes

Depends on whether one slices by age or socio-economic status doesn't it? Remain leads with ABs, Leave with >65s.

Indeed, so they cancel each other out

50+ is probably the tipping point at which Leave begins to outnumber Remain.

foxinsoxuk

Ave_it said:

#rashford saves van gaal

I do hope so!

Pong

This is all a bit ridiculous;

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers

Pulpstar

Pong said:

This is all a bit ridiculous;

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers

Aarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhh

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

This is all a bit ridiculous;

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers

Aarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhh

We're on at 1,000/1, aren't we? ;-)

RodCrosby

Pong said:

This is all a bit ridiculous;

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers

Trick question. They don't say which year...

Ave_it

#RASHFORD

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

This is all a bit ridiculous;

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers

Aarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhh

Return of the Jeb!i

Alistair

Rubio last matched now at 4.5

If you ever wanted to see a heart over head battle or hope over expectation then Rubio's price is the thing to watch.

Over/Under on his price Super Tuesday morning?
Over/Under on his price by Wednesday mid-day?

hunchman

Ave_it said:

#RASHFORD

Forgot to remind you earlier this week Ave_it that you still owe me that pint on our FTSE bet years ago! I hope you REMAIN steadfast in honouring that bet, you know I'm not going to LEAVE it alone until its settled!

Vote LEAVE.

Alistair

When Trump pivots to fight the general this is the kind of thing he will start talking about, his regular old run of the mill fight against institutional racism and anti-semitism in Florida

http://spectator.org/articles/64643/when-trump-fought-racists

hunchman

Speaking of voting, I did vote down at a polling station today, to approve plans for our local neighbourhood plan over the next x years. On asking how turnout had been when voting this evening at the polling station, the clerk replied 'depends on what you mean by a good turnout' in a pretty despondent manner!

Alistair

Still green on Jeb

Speedy

Trump going up and up in Georgia:

Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

If the debate doesn't stop his momentum, he's going to clock 50+ in some S.Tuesday states.
With early voting going on for weeks now it looks pretty difficult that Trump manages to lose anything but Texas on Tuesday.

I will as usual live comment on the GOP debate on PB.
My guess is that Cruz and Rubio will desperately try to hang on during the debate, it will be interesting to see how the moderators handle it.

RodCrosby

Speedy said:

Trump going up and up in Georgia:

Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

If the debate doesn't stop his momentum, he's going to clock 50+ in some S.Tuesday states.
With early voting going on for weeks now it looks pretty difficult that Trump manages to lose anything but Texas on Tuesday.

I will as usual live comment on the GOP debate on PB.
My guess is that Cruz and Rubio will desperately try to hang on during the debate, it will be interesting to see how the moderators handle it.

Looks a bit of an outlier, tbh.

hunchman

Disgraceful cover up by Dame Janet Smith today and £10 million pi$$ed up the wall on a useless junk report. If anyone believes that senior management knew nothing about the abuse going on at the BBC in the 1970's then they need their ar*es kicking. The report simply isn't worth the paper its written on.

And you only need to look at all the suspicious deaths of people connected with the BBC - Jill Dando, Rik Mayall, Mike Smith, Peaches Geldof, Kristian Digby, Natasha Collins, Kevin Greening, Paula Yates to name but a few - I could write a lot more but this is an utterly rotten organisation that I simply try to avoid at all costs.

And then we have the total disgrace of Tony Blackburn thrown to the wolves today - the whole thing makes my blood boil. The clock is ticking on this, its just a matter of time before the truth of the filthy corrupt BBC is revealed for all to see.

Speedy

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

Trump going up and up in Georgia:

Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

If the debate doesn't stop his momentum, he's going to clock 50+ in some S.Tuesday states.
With early voting going on for weeks now it looks pretty difficult that Trump manages to lose anything but Texas on Tuesday.

I will as usual live comment on the GOP debate on PB.
My guess is that Cruz and Rubio will desperately try to hang on during the debate, it will be interesting to see how the moderators handle it.

Looks a bit of an outlier, tbh.

I think this is the 3rd Georgia poll with Trump over 40.
Second one today with Trump over 40.

Also it has that 58% of voters that already voted go for Trump (14% of votes), early voting has started a long time there.

Charles

@Cyclefree

Saw your Carsten news earlier. Depressing. He's already said to Frankfurt that "no power or jobs will leave Frankfurt". Sometimes I think our government should take strategic stakes in companies with a role of national significance. The French don't do everything wrong...

@Cyclefree @rcs1000

Are either of you going to the City for Britain launch at CMC on Monday evening?

DavidL

Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.

Pulpstar

That Jeb 5% market is hilarious. It's betting on a Real Clear technicality now.

Charles

Polruan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?

From the context we can deduce it is both smaller than a football (presumably a rugby ball-shaped thing) yet larger than one would reasonably conceive possible for a belt buckle.

About 2 fists I think.

Sunil_Prasannan

Philip_Thompson said:

First like Remain.

LEAVE in Silence

What can I say?
I don't wanna play any more
What can I say?
I'm heading for the door
I can't stand this emotional violence
LEAVE in silence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q

Pulpstar

I might leave my voting till very late in the EU referendum, will mean I can gauge turnout for y'all.

Charles

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.html

Just for you - Prof. Norpoth's view

AndyJS

Trump now 3/1 to be POTUS with Betfair:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

HYUFD

Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave
https://twitter.com/Vote_LeaveMedia/status/702977561421352960

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/702977526466015233

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave
https://twitter.com/Vote_LeaveMedia/status/702977561421352960

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/702977526466015233

He's thinking what we're thinking

notme

If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965

2hrs and 50 minutes into tonights council meeting... You get to see what happens when the chairman/mayor/speaker of a chamber is working in cahoots with the Executive authority... but comes up against someone who wont stand for it.

Essentially there was a list of people wishing to speak, the chairman allowed a guillotine motion which is supposed to be allowed only after all points have been aired. There were over twenty people still wishing to speak..

Quite extraordinary behaviour by the chairman...

By the way, this is as exciting as it gets for local government.

Big_G_NorthWales

DavidL said:

Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.

They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by Memphis

RodCrosby

Charles said:

RodCrosby said:

Speedy said:

This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168

On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)

I could cash out for £2k now.

That figure will almost certainly rise.

If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k

I may load up some more...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.html

Just for you - Prof. Norpoth's view

Well that's sweet!

What a coincidence. I knew he tipped the GOP about 3 years ago.

But 97%?

Gulp...

DanSmith

Four state polls out today with Trump over 40%, looking pretty unstoppable.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave

I never thought I'd say this but an intervention by John Major must be the most valuable political currency in the land at the moment.

isam

One for @AlastairMeeks !!!

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/702981727371796480

AndyJS

DanSmith said:

Four state polls out today with Trump over 40%, looking pretty unstoppable.

People with nothing much to lose are saying "let's try Trump and see what he can do".

Ave_it

Is there a pensions story in the Express tomorrow?

#handsoffourpensions

#makeosborneleavenow

TCPoliticalBetting

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12173817/Ministers-hiding-full-scale-of-EU-immigration.html

AndyJS

Election night is about to get underway — in Jamaica:

http://jamaica-elections.com/general/2016/videos/view.php?id=349

DanSmith

AndyJS said:

DanSmith said:

Four state polls out today with Trump over 40%, looking pretty unstoppable.

People with nothing much to lose are saying "let's try Trump and see what he can do".

Yeah, and he's got that winners sheen now.

Pulpstar

Ave_it said:

Is there a pensions story in the Express tomorrow?

#handsoffourpensions

#makeosborneleavenow

#Flatrateof33%ta

Tykejohnno

Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Over the past five years 2.25m EU nationals registered for NI number. But official figures show only 1m EU migrants over same period.