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More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
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Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.MP_SE said:
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?AlastairMeeks said:
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.blackburn63 said:
That's another 1/100 shot landed.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.runnymede said:'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.0 -
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones.rcs1000 said:
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.HYUFD said:
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mailrcs1000 said:
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.HYUFD said:
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lostrcs1000 said:
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"HYUFD said:Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
But he'll only do it if:
(a) Remain is going to win anyway
and
(b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.0 -
Sorry but that doesn't quite capture the stark staring bonkers Blofeld image you are trying to attain.richardDodd said:AHhh.. Tyndal..I wondered how long it would take for your asinine comments to appear ..you never fail to disappoint.. well done..
Try putting your finger in the corner of your mouth and you might just get it.0 -
The number of Better Together people who seem to be suffering total memory loss at appearing at events with and campaigning alongside George Galloway is starting to get a little scary.
Might need to name a new psychological condition after it.0 -
'Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?'
Lying0 -
I find it an offensive argument as it plays down the important contribution from NATO and the USA. These people were willing to lay down their lives to protect us and we have people coming out and arguing it was in fact the EU.CornishBlue said:
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.MP_SE said:
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?AlastairMeeks said:
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.blackburn63 said:
That's another 1/100 shot landed.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.runnymede said:'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.0 -
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.0 -
If this morning's poll is correct, and Unionists split just over 3:1 Leave, that would give Leave 38% from Unionists. Add in 6% or so from the rest and Northern Ireland would vote about 56/44 Remain.Indigo said:
They are a handful of MPs, the real question is how will their electorate vote, which might be a completely different matter.HYUFD said:0 -
Sorry, Brookie, you'd only get a vote if the Executive Council decides to initiate deselection. I think Nadhim is safe from your depredations.Alanbrooke said:
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)taffys said:
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The bitterness will be enormous.0 -
I've changed tack, I thought this EU debate was about real issues but its actually about celebs and who appeals to you.
In that case I'm on the side of Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and hope to be nominated to spend time in the jungle (not the Calais one) with them.
Remainers can have Toynbee and Tom Watson0 -
Shades of Ken Clarke who admitted he had never read the Maastricht Treaty a decade after he fought so hard to get it passed.Sean_F said:
Maybe he didn't read it, or didn't understand it.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not quite sure how someone deals with this. Cameron has made a series of Statements today which are directly contradicted by the document he has agreed. I assume that he has actually read and understood the document so he must know that what he is saying is not born out by the facts. How would you define that?perdix said:
Accusing Cameron and Co of telling lies requires some proof of you statement. If that's all that Leavers can say they will lose. Posted by a possible Leaver.runnymede said:'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'0 -
The Tories won't split, the EU ref. result will damage the present leadership and the Remain Tory team leadership prospects, but that's it.richardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.0 -
Plenty of room for manoeuvre there if the "deal" disintegrates as expected, or is eviscerated by the European Parliament, or as was being touted earlier, thrown out by the ECJ. To make it stick they would pretty much have to do Cameron up like a .... kipperrcs1000 said:
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
"The deal was plainly bollox, Cameron sold us a pup, lets do it again only properly this time"0 -
A sense of betrayal is a very strong emotion.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Whereas the ability to say "I told you so" is quite delicious for those who previously warned the gullible.
I mean did some people really have any trust in Philip Hammond after his eagerness to implement defence cuts ???
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-12294766
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Not careerist scum, at least not in the latest decision necessarily. In presenting as more eurosceptic earlier, perhaps. Semantic, I know, but I genuinely think it's not that people want to leave but are too spineless to follow through now in order to save their career, but that they don't want to leave, but were too spineless to be upfront about it and figured a little eurosceptic teasing earlier was permissible (on the grounds that they probably don't like the EU, which is softly eurosceptic) for a quieter time from the genuine skeptics.SeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.0 -
I'm fine, thanks. And won't be deselecting my MP.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.0 -
There are a lot of gleeful harbingers of doom for the Conservative Party out and about today. It won't play like that. Country first - and that means keeping out Corbyn and his loons.
But there are a number of people with ambition who will have had their card marked. I just can't see Osborne, May, Javid or Hammond getting the membership's vote as leader now. Boris has probably buggered up what slim chance he had too, waiting to see which way the wind was blowing.
The party will probably skip Cameron's generation and go for a younger, fresher face - as Cameron was, all those years ago. Lots of betting fun to be had!0 -
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.Speedy said:
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones.rcs1000 said:
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.HYUFD said:
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mailrcs1000 said:
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.HYUFD said:
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lostrcs1000 said:
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"HYUFD said:Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
But he'll only do it if:
(a) Remain is going to win anyway
and
(b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.0 -
Currently on holiday and just picked up the local area free English language paper outside one of the many villa selling estate agents. It claims 'read by 500,000'.HYUFD said:
How will they vote?0 -
Absolutely. Go back to the 1980s and ask people whether it's the EEC or NATO that is keeping the peace and they'd look at you strangely!MP_SE said:
I find it an offensive argument as it plays down the important contribution from NATO and the USA. These people were willing to lay down their lives to protect us and we have people coming out and arguing it was in fact the EU.CornishBlue said:
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.MP_SE said:
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?AlastairMeeks said:
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.blackburn63 said:
That's another 1/100 shot landed.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.runnymede said:'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.0 -
@ProfTomkins:
EEC referendum, 1975
EU referendum, 2016
Forty-one years
AKA "a generation", as in "once in...."0 -
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.0 -
All the turncoats and liars need purging from the party. The boundary changes may provide a few opportunities. We also need to make sure a Eurosceptic leader is elected.John_M said:
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.0 -
Graham Stringer from Labour has joined VoteLeave.0
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Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?rcs1000 said:
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?Indigo said:
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.old_labour said:0 -
We'd clearly be fine in those circumstances, and I think the political pressure then would be enormous. I think there would be a groundswell (maybe 60%) of support for Leave on the basis that the EU had reneged.Indigo said:
Plenty of room for manoeuvre there if the "deal" disintegrates as expected, or is eviscerated by the European Parliament, or as was being touted earlier, thrown out by the ECJ. To make it stick they would pretty much have to do Cameron up like a .... kipperrcs1000 said:
The danger for the Conservative Party is if Remain wins 60:40, and then they elect a hardcore "Out-ter", who moves the party in a direction that has just been fairly roundly rejected by the electorate.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
"The deal was plainly bollox, Cameron sold us a pup, lets do it again only properly this time"0 -
REMAIN is now down to 1.39 on Betfair yet Boris has come down to 3.65 for the leadership (Osborne on 3.95). How do you interpret that?0
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Mr Memory
@stephenkb @DavidMills73 @JohnRentoul MP split in Apr 75 HoC vote - Lab: Yes 137, No 145, 33 didn't vote; Con: Yes 249, No 8, 18 didn't vote0 -
And in general, warfare between democracies is unusual.MP_SE said:
I find it an offensive argument as it plays down the important contribution from NATO and the USA. These people were willing to lay down their lives to protect us and we have people coming out and arguing it was in fact the EU.CornishBlue said:
Even though the argument that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe completely mixes up cause and effect, as the actual case is that it's the other way round: peace in Europe has allowed for the EU to develop. Now that peacefulness is beginning to break down, so the EU is breaking down too.MP_SE said:
Doesn't one of the centre piece arguments for remaining in the EU revolve around it preventing WW3 and the importance of avoiding the horrors of WW1 and WW2?AlastairMeeks said:
Serious answer, constantly refighting the Second World War isn't going to allay any concerns that Leavers are backward-looking Little Englanders. Leavers need to start reaching for less confrontational metaphors.blackburn63 said:
That's another 1/100 shot landed.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers sure do love their Nazi references.runnymede said:'When performing karaoke there's no point sounding hesitant about the quality of your offering. Regardless of the merits, you've got to belt it out.'
That's just a nice way of rewriting Goebbel's famous dictum isn't it?
'The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it.'
Perhaps Cameron & co. might want to beware the follow up though
'They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous'
A serious question Mr Meeks, what % of those who vote Leave do you consider to be Nazi sympathisers?
NATO creates the peace for the EU to then exist.
Warfare usually occurs between non-democratic States, or between a democratic State and a non-democratic State.0 -
Just back from B&Q, apparently national shortage of whitewash. In other news,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3455604/BBC-s-Savile-sex-abuse-probe-waited-THREE-YEARS-talk-key-witness-unmasked-presenter-serial-paedophile-rapist.html0 -
Once you've erased the memory of campaigning with whole parties, expunging one wee, baldy bloke is a dawdle.Alistair said:The number of Better Together people who seem to be suffering total memory loss at appearing at events with and campaigning alongside George Galloway is starting to get a little scary.
Might need to name a new psychological condition after it.0 -
You'd like that, but I suspect not. Osborne is increasingly unlikely to be Cameron's successor and 2020 is looking like nothing short of a Tory majority, especially with boundary changes.HYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
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Banal+ and a Spanish channel are not worth a lot (compared with FOX and Sky), and the future prospects of the French and Spanish consumer markets are less than stellar.rcs1000 said:
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.Speedy said:
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones.rcs1000 said:
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.HYUFD said:
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mailrcs1000 said:
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.HYUFD said:
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lostrcs1000 said:
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"HYUFD said:Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
But he'll only do it if:
(a) Remain is going to win anyway
and
(b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.0 -
Pinky finger. Has to be the pinky....Richard_Tyndall said:
Sorry but that doesn't quite capture the stark staring bonkers Blofeld image you are trying to attain.richardDodd said:AHhh.. Tyndal..I wondered how long it would take for your asinine comments to appear ..you never fail to disappoint.. well done..
Try putting your finger in the corner of your mouth and you might just get it.0 -
As you say it isn;t the deal, its what the deal is being dressed up as. Its the insult to our intelligence that is the really galling thing.John_M said:
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.0 -
CBS/Survey Monkey SC is Trump 43 Rubio 21 Cruz 14. Google trends is now Trump 30 Rubio 23 Cruz 21Speedy said:
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.HYUFD said:
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologiesSpeedy said:
That's the old one.HYUFD said:CBS South Carolina GOP Final
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.0 -
The reason I ask is because the US has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish statehood and protects the Kurdish pseudo-state in Iraq.Indigo said:
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?rcs1000 said:
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?Indigo said:
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.old_labour said:
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.0 -
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as ChancellorAlanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.0 -
I'm not even convinced that Osbourne wants to be PM. I think him cutting a deal with Johnson to support him is more likely.Alanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.0 -
I would never vote for a conservative party led by that scumbag Osborne. I'd rather see McDonnell become chancellor. At least he's honest about who he is and what he'll do.CornishBlue said:
You'd like that, but I suspect not. Osborne is increasingly unlikely to be Cameron's successor and 2020 is looking like nothing short of a Tory majority, especially with boundary changes.HYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.0 -
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.HYUFD said:
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as ChancellorAlanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.0 -
Costa Del Sol retirees will vote Leave Provence and Tuscany retirees will vote Remainflightpath01 said:
Currently on holiday and just picked up the local area free English language paper outside one of the many villa selling estate agents. It claims 'read by 500,000'.HYUFD said:
How will they vote?0 -
Can you give the source for the CBS one?HYUFD said:
CBS/Survey Monkey SC is Trump 43 Rubio 21 Cruz 14. Google trends is now Trump 30 Rubio 23 Cruz 21Speedy said:
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.HYUFD said:
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologiesSpeedy said:
That's the old one.HYUFD said:CBS South Carolina GOP Final
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Usually it's yougov not SurveyMonkey (can they change their name to something more serious?), but their both online pollsters.0 -
Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.0 -
x
Spelling "amended" incorrectly is quite something!Theuniondivvie said:*newspaper of record*
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar1/status/7010799149849600010 -
How does that work when 650 become 600 ?JohnO said:
Sorry, Brookie, you'd only get a vote if the Executive Council decides to initiate deselection. I think Nadhim is safe from your depredations.Alanbrooke said:
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)taffys said:
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The bitterness will be enormous.0 -
Me in the past and Plato was active at GE15.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
0 -
This is rather good by a WSJourno
In or Out: The arguments for and against #Brexit https://t.co/mt2hD4gZ0m https://t.co/qRJ1pwPcQr0 -
If it is a narrow Remain some Leave Tories will switch to UKIP. In 2020 a result something like Tories 32% Labour 31% UKIP 20% is very possibleSpeedy said:
The Tories won't split, the EU ref. result will damage the present leadership and the Remain Tory team leadership prospects, but that's it.richardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.
.0 -
It might well affect the number of activists prepared to donate their shoe leather to a "eurosceptic" candidate that when the key moment arrived, chickened out.Speedy said:
The Tories won't split, the EU ref. result will damage the present leadership and the Remain Tory team leadership prospects, but that's it.richardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
It won't even affect voting intention for the GE, but it will affect voting in other areas like local elections where Tory voters can protest safely.
The only thing for sure is that it makes it simpler to see who has the upper hand in any Tory leadership election, since anyone backing Remain will have an automatic disadvantage for that race.0 -
It is the stated goal of Sky to become Sky Europe. I'm not speculating here, this is the stated objective of Sky.Speedy said:
Banal+ and a Spanish channel are not worth a lot (compared with FOX and Sky), and the future prospects of the French and Spanish consumer markets are less than stellar.rcs1000 said:
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.Speedy said:
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones.rcs1000 said:
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.HYUFD said:
Given Remain will only win narrowly Murdoch will not risk it especially as most Sum readers will vote Leave he does not want to lose them to the Star or Mailrcs1000 said:
They can say: with reluctance, and although there is much that is wrong with the EU, it is for Leave to make the case. The Sun, therefore, recommends - with a heavy heart - that we stay in.HYUFD said:
There is no way on earth the Sun will back Remain while Murdoch owns it, he despises the EU, after all the Sun backed Yes in Scotland and lostrcs1000 said:
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"HYUFD said:Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
But he'll only do it if:
(a) Remain is going to win anyway
and
(b) He's got assurances from the EU that they won't block the creation of Sky Europe
North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.
The US market is fragmented, with DirecTV, Cablevision, TimeWarner Cable, Comcast, and Dish. There is no (or virtually no) exclusive content.
Sky and the Murdochs want to change the structure of rights in Europe: they want to own all the rights for football, for movies etc. etc.
That's a pretty enormous prize.0 -
The friend I was speaking to earlier, who thought Cameron was advocating LEAVE, ie not interested in politics, said "We've got to leave cos of all that shit that's going on in Europe, we aren't safe"MikeL said:
Yep - and it'll be very effective.Alanbrooke said:LOL
just listening to Cameron's speech. He's really laying on the scare the voters theme
Reminds me of Gordon Brown just before the Scottish referendum when he started talking about the State pension.
How many people would have even thought of that being raised as an issue?
But it was very clever - designed to make all those reliant on it think "Oh no, I never dreamt there might even be a chance I might lose some of my pension. That's enough - forget this - we have to stay in the UK".
Very effective tactic indeed.
Now Cameron will do the same this time - it's very noticeable how much he is talking about "safety" - designed to frighten people as much as possible - just like Brown with the State pension.
And the same tactic will be used yet again in GE 2020 against Labour re defence.
Interesting that the PM will try and go directly against that feeling. Normal people consider the EU unsafe because of the migrant crisis
Maybe he will tell us its "false consciousness"0 -
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.0 -
So who is going to sweep the Tories to victory at the next general election then?david_herdson said:
I would be very surprised if the final three were Boris, Osborne and May. I could well see only one of them making it, and then not being elected.CornishBlue said:
He won't be getting my vote, for sure.MP_SE said:George will never be leader:
https://twitter.com/lawyers4britain/status/700964983631454208
Will be interesting to see which two MPs get to the final round of 2 (for the membership to vote). Boris v May is my guess now.0 -
Perhaps it's because your memebrship fees are too high Mr O.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
( muffled guffaw)0 -
Sadly I do expect some form of civil war after.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists .... post here? I think we divide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
1. Cameron, Feldman and Osborne have not been playing fair with use of party resources and Feldman has been tapping up donors for the Remain campaign.
2. The octopus workings of Osborne are piling up resentment in the MPs.
3. Feldman's review of the party is likely to increase the "them and us" tensions between associations and CCHQ and Feldman starts from a low base of approval amongst members.
0 -
Apparently Boris has decided to wait to decide until he's heard Cameron give a speech on Parliamentary sovereignty.
Don't rush him! These career decisions take time.
LOL0 -
The only people attacking Kurds are Turkey and ISIS. Not Russia nor the US. The Kurdish part of Turkey is already being attacked - by Turkey. Turkey is also shelling Kurds who are fighting ISIS in Azaz. Obama is already acting (on the phone) on Erdogan.rcs1000 said:
The reason I ask is because the US has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish statehood and protects the Kurdish pseudo-state in Iraq.Indigo said:
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?rcs1000 said:
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?Indigo said:
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.old_labour said:
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.0 -
All this fence sitting much be killing his arse.NickPalmer said:Apparently Boris has decided to wait to decide until he's heard Cameron give a speech on Parliamentary sovereignty.
Don't rush him! These career decisions take time.
LOL0 -
So that's what Brownian motion means!taffys said:Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.
Any whispers about Boris's intentions? I was expecting his decision to be in tomorrow's papers, but it's too late now. Is he planning to knife his fellow Old Etonian and Bullingdon Clubber shortly before Cameron gets interviewed by Andrew Marr tomorrow? What, and still get the OE invitations? I kind of doubt it. More likely he won't make a big bang but will squib it with a silly phrase that essentially means "Yeah, nice one, Dave", maybe tomorrow afternoon or evening when the world has stopped giving a damn.
The prior question is whether the City of London got what it wanted in the deal, and on the face of it it seems they probably did, even if one could reasonably add the words "for now". This is the "France wimped out" reading, which is no more than a guess. If Boris stabs, I'll reconsider.
0 -
The ones with no credibility what so ever are the Cameroon bullshit artists that have been telling us for months that something important would happen. The sceptics have been saying since the middle of last year that Cameron would come home with a little bit of tinsel and try and dress it up as the second coming...another_richard said:I mean did some people really have any trust in Philip Hammond after his eagerness to implement defence cuts ???
"Oh no!" quote the Nabavi Tendancy, "you must not prejudge the negotiations, Dave will bring home the bacon just you wait and see.". There were accusations of prejudgement, queries about were we actually in the conference room, and the whole slew of semantics to try and deflect the the inadequacy that everyone with a brain knew was coming.
Over the last year the deal has got thinner and thinner, and we have been reassured of rabbits from hats, last minute ploys, tough negotiating tactics, Dave will do it, Batting for Britain... AND IT WAS ALL BULLSHIT
Some small piece of tinsel delivered as anticipate and oversold as expected. Don't expect to be taken seriously on this or similar matters again.. ever.0 -
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.0 -
Taking time to find the right historical allegory? Is it the Ides of March or ....the formation of the 1922 against the coalition government of David Lloyd George?NickPalmer said:Apparently Boris has decided to wait to decide until he's heard Cameron give a speech on Parliamentary sovereignty.
Don't rush him! These career decisions take time.
LOL
0 -
Your very special rate is £3000 because we're worth it.Alanbrooke said:
Perhaps it's because your memebrship fees are too high Mr O.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
( muffled guffaw)
Love L'Orealy Hersham0 -
I just read Gove's excellent statement. I never liked him at education, but he's done good things at justice and after reading that I am tempte to join the Tories to vote for him as leader.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
Us centre left eurosceptics don't have many options!!0 -
Absolutely. The referendum is a great way of defining for sure which Tory MPs are genuine eurosceptics. Those who have changed their tune since last night (ie now support Remain) should watch their backs.MP_SE said:
All the turncoats and liars need purging from the party. The boundary changes may provide a few opportunities. We also need to make sure a Eurosceptic leader is elected.John_M said:
Well, I _was_ incandescent with rage earlier this morning. I cannot believe that the leader of this country, a man that (until a fortnight or so ago) I respected, can stand there and tell me that this pile of crap that's been excreted from the summit is somehow indicative of a turning point in EU/UK relations.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
It's on a par with the lazy, transparent lies of a teenager ("Where have you been? Nowhere?"). I last felt this way when I realised that Blair had completely sold me a pup on Iraq II (I supported the war).
However, I've walked the dogs, eaten some delicious pub food, and all I'm left with is the residual thought of 'fuck 'em'. They'll not get my vote again.
PS The only silver lining has been reading Gove's beautiful, lucid prose on why Leave is the best option for my beloved country.0 -
Shame so many Tory MPs have forgotten the 'country first' mantra.MarqueeMark said:There are a lot of gleeful harbingers of doom for the Conservative Party out and about today. It won't play like that. Country first - and that means keeping out Corbyn and his loons.
But there are a number of people with ambition who will have had their card marked. I just can't see Osborne, May, Javid or Hammond getting the membership's vote as leader now. Boris has probably buggered up what slim chance he had too, waiting to see which way the wind was blowing.
The party will probably skip Cameron's generation and go for a younger, fresher face - as Cameron was, all those years ago. Lots of betting fun to be had!0 -
Healing the conservatives after this might take some doing.rcs1000 said:
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.0 -
I suspect the most likely outcome will be a wash: with the Sun backing Out, and the Times going for Remain.SeanT said:Murdoch is also a very old man now. He will relish, emotionally, one last chance to give the hated British Establishment a kicking. Moreover, you overdo the Sky stuff. And you also overstate the infuence he has over his editors.
But we have a bet on this. I am pretty sure you won't win.0 -
Osborne will likely be Tory leader if a narrow Remain but UKIP will see a mini SNP style surgeSpeedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.0 -
Done.JohnO said:
Your very special rate is £3000 because we're worth it.Alanbrooke said:
Perhaps it's because your memebrship fees are too high Mr O.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
may6be if you dropped it to three quid you could entice a lot more of us to sign up.
( muffled guffaw)
Love L'Orealy Hersham
Three thousand egyptian pounds on their way Mr O0 -
I'm hardly an activist, but I did leaflet for my local MP (David Davies [Monmouth]) as he's a nice bloke and he lives about 100 yards up the hill from me.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Me in the past and Plato was active at GE15.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
0 -
Depends what Feldman pulls off in the structural review.Indigo said:
How does that work when 650 become 600 ?JohnO said:
Sorry, Brookie, you'd only get a vote if the Executive Council decides to initiate deselection. I think Nadhim is safe from your depredations.Alanbrooke said:
I might just join the conservatives now so I can vote against the reslection of my MP :-)taffys said:
Quite. Imagine you pounded the streets for a 'eurosceptic' MP, especially in a marginal, enduring all sorts of insults. And you find out that 'eurosceptic' is nothing of the sort.SeanT said:
Quite possibly true, in my case. I am probably a dupe and a halfwit. And a knob.isam said:
I had a theory (no more than a theory) that people only really ever get angry at themselves... ie angry at someone lying because you trusted them, angry at someone letting you down because you had faith in them etcSeanT said:
Scum. I am surprised how angered I am. But I am. Spineless, careerist scum,rottenborough said:Philip Hammond @PHammondMP 10m10 minutes ago
#EUreform deal tilts the balance firmly in favour of the UK remaining in. We're stronger, safer, better off in EU on these terms than out
Tory members out in the country must be besides themselves with anger this afternoon listening to these so-called euro-sceptics suddenly finding reasons why all the issues have been sorted out.
There'll be reckoning over all this at some point.
Nonetheless this is what I feel, and I am not even a Tory.
I can't imagine how a loyal eurosceptic Tory member or activist is feeling right about now (and "loyal eurosceptic" describes 60% of them at a guess). I don't think it will be pretty. I do think they will have their revenge.
The bitterness will be enormous.
0 -
It is on Twitter but I am posting in the back of a carSpeedy said:
Can you give the source for the CBS one?HYUFD said:
CBS/Survey Monkey SC is Trump 43 Rubio 21 Cruz 14. Google trends is now Trump 30 Rubio 23 Cruz 21Speedy said:
Don't mix it up with the national CBS poll that came out 2 days ago.HYUFD said:
Actually from 9am this morning SC time Trump was back im front on Google trends there is a new CBS poll out but CBS still only have the old one up apologiesSpeedy said:
That's the old one.HYUFD said:CBS South Carolina GOP Final
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 9%
Bush 6%
Carson 6%
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-south-carolina-still-solidly-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
If Google Trends is right Trump is battling for third place with Kasich.
Usually it's yougov not SurveyMonkey (can they change their name to something more serious?), but their both online pollsters.0 -
Looking at the Tories' "Gang of Six" I can only see one leader in waiting...0
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The Times has been mercilessly on message for Remain.rcs1000 said:
I suspect the most likely outcome will be a wash: with the Sun backing Out, and the Times going for Remain.SeanT said:Murdoch is also a very old man now. He will relish, emotionally, one last chance to give the hated British Establishment a kicking. Moreover, you overdo the Sky stuff. And you also overstate the infuence he has over his editors.
But we have a bet on this. I am pretty sure you won't win.0 -
Gosh you are class ridden. I'm embarrassed to say it but the part I am on is quite upmarket.HYUFD said:
Costa Del Sol retirees will vote Leave Provence and Tuscany retirees will vote Remainflightpath01 said:
Currently on holiday and just picked up the local area free English language paper outside one of the many villa selling estate agents. It claims 'read by 500,000'.HYUFD said:
How will they vote?0 -
They are not going to choose Gove or IDSAlanbrooke said:
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.HYUFD said:
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as ChancellorAlanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.0 -
The most likely people to attack the Kurdish part of Turkey are the Turks themselves. Indeed they are already bombing Turkish positions in Syria and Iraq.rcs1000 said:
The reason I ask is because the US has been a very vocal supporter of Kurdish statehood and protects the Kurdish pseudo-state in Iraq.Indigo said:
Will they stay there if the Russians start dropping cluster bombs on their houses ?rcs1000 said:
Aren't the areas where there are likely to be shooting matches the bits with lots of Kurds in?Indigo said:
If Turkey gets into even a moderate shooting war with Russia the refugee movements will make Syria look like a tea party, not to mention that Turkey will also lose all interest in stopping the existing flows, especially if the EU refuses to help.old_labour said:
If it is the Kurdish part of Turkey that is attacked, I think Obama may act.
The EU and the refugee crisis will be the least of our worries at that point.
0 -
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.0 -
Why has he taken on the role of Dave's deputy and features in many announcements that are the responsibility of other departments? Judge a man by his actions.rcs1000 said:
I'm not even convinced that Osbourne wants to be PM. I think him cutting a deal with Johnson to support him is more likely.Alanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
0 -
But, and this seems to be under-rated, they have to be an instantly credible Prime Minister. No party membership has ever directly elected a PM before. If an Outer, this limits the field to Gove and (at a stretch) Patel, unless Boris goes Leave.rcs1000 said:
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.0 -
I can also see a split between an Outer that wants a hardline renegotiation on next EU treaty and one that wants to stick to Cameron's terms of standing aside.rcs1000 said:
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.0 -
Heavy investment in a shrinking market:rcs1000 said:
It is the stated goal of Sky to become Sky Europe. I'm not speculating here, this is the stated objective of Sky.Speedy said:
Banal+ and a Spanish channel are not worth a lot (compared with FOX and Sky), and the future prospects of the French and Spanish consumer markets are less than stellar.rcs1000 said:
I am a committed and vocal EFTA/EEA supporter. I'm merely pointing out that the Murdochs - for a change - may be desirous of approval from the EU. There may be a secret quid pro quo between the Murdochs and the EU on the subject of the referendum.Speedy said:
I don't know what he will do, but I prefer Britain to be the offshore base for North American operations than European ones.rcs1000 said:
We'll see; but don't forget that Murdoch's business interests come ahead of any political principles he may (or may not) have.HYUFD said:rcs1000 said:
EuropeHYUFD said:
trcs1000 said:
The Murdoch papers will back whatever result is more likely. They need to be able to say "It was the Sun What Won It"HYUFD said:Cameron will have the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent online, the FT and the BBC behind him in the Remain camp, the Sun, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and probably the Times will back Leave
North America is bigger and has better future prospects than Europe.
Investing plenty of money in a shrinking market is not the right idea, if Murdoch wants to burn cash quicker he should back Jeb Bush for president.
The US market is fragmented, with DirecTV, Cablevision, TimeWarner Cable, Comcast, and Dish. There is no (or virtually no) exclusive content.
Sky and the Murdochs want to change the structure of rights in Europe: they want to own all the rights for football, for movies etc. etc.
That's a pretty enormous prize.
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/entertainment-media/outlook/segment-insights/tv-advertising.html
https://www.digitaltvresearch.com/ugc/tv advg 2013 sample pdf_sample_81.pdf
Murdoch will be better off investing money on growing markets, if he invests a lot in europe he might end up like Leo Kirch.
Kirch made the mistake of trying to build a european media empire based from Germany and rivaled Murdoch, however Murdoch won because his companies invested in N.America and Britain which have larger and healthier consumer markets than continental Europe and Germany.0 -
Precisely so. You have to be a member of the tribe to understand it.TheScreamingEagles said:
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.0 -
OGH, worth a couple of threads onTheScreamingEagles said:
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.
1. What happens to the Conservative party if Remain wins?
2. What happens to the Conservative party if Leave wins?
It affects the betting on next Leader and PM.
0 -
I used to but left before the 2010 election.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.0 -
As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.0 -
I've not for one moment suggested they will.HYUFD said:
They are not going to choose Gove or IDSAlanbrooke said:
If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.HYUFD said:
If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as ChancellorAlanbrooke said:
GOWNBPMHYUFD said:
More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace OsbornerichardDodd said:If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...
if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.
Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.
They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.
Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.0 -
Precisely.JohnO said:This Tory member of 40 years standing is beside hmself with tolerance, emolience and tenderness. Philip is my next door MP and he won't suffer any backlash, neither will Dom Raab whichever side he chooses.
It's only the more loony Leavers who talk about 'betrayal' and who are so conceited or wilfully blind that they think the only people who are principled are those voting Leave.
The more sensible of us accept that there are arguments on either side. I read Michael Gove's excellent statement with great interest (although I was a bit puzzled by his claim that the EU prevents us building houses), and I respect those who argue coherently on the other side.
0 -
There are more and they will get an opportunity to fly or sink.Tissue_Price said:
But, and this seems to be under-rated, they have to be an instantly credible Prime Minister. No party membership has ever directly elected a PM before. If an Outer, this limits the field to Gove and (at a stretch) Patel, unless Boris goes Leave.rcs1000 said:
Unless there is a monumental victory for Remain, I think your analysis is correct: the party will want an Out-ter.Speedy said:
While I'm sure than in the case Remain wins the deal will not produce results or will be altered or forgotten to be implemented by the EU, I doubt there would be an extreme reaction by Tory voters against their own party, however they will want to replace their leadership with a Leaver.SeanT said:Speaking as the only pb-er (I think) to predict 1 a narrow indyref NO followed by 2 an emotional surge to the SNP
here's how I see post REMAIN playing out, as it did in Scotland (and yes I get zillions of predix wrong blah blah, but I got this one right)
Once the country has voted REMAIN it will look at itself with a kind guilty self-disgust - how could we be so unmanly, why didn't we vote for the patriotic cause, WTF were we thinking, falling for those Establishment lies, etc. These feelings are what convulsed the Scots post indyref. A Freudian self loathing sublimated into political aggression. It will be the same in the UK, and these feelings will be particularly acute - borderline virulent - in the Tory party.
A version of this same Freudian, quasi-Oedipal psychosis is now playing out in the Labour party, vis a vis Blair and Iraq. Self hatred turned into self harm, or externalised harm.
The result will be the same for the Tories as it was in Scotland and in Labour. The child will turn on the guilty father, and slay him, symbolically. The Cameroons will be reviled, and their acolytes abjured. The local deity will be mocked and killed. There may be ritualised burnings.
The Remainers can forget about Tory leadership prospects for a long time whatever the result.
But I think it needs to be someone who can bring the party back together again. It cannot be someone divisive.
0 -
Who are "we"? Much of the Tory base - not the activists, but the party's base - view Cameron as something close to a traitor. They're in sore need of a leader, but so was much of the Labour base when Blair and Mandelson and Powell took over in 1994, and they didn't get one. Farage would be the logical choice, but this isn't logical.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.0 -
Me neither and we'll be knackered after the locals on May 6th.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.0 -
I will.TheScreamingEagles said:As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)
I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.0 -
No. France won hands down. Cameron got absolutely nothing on protection for the city.John_N said:
So that's what Brownian motion means!taffys said:Osborne by contrast, will produce a Brownian turd of a budget next month and pretend he's a conservative.
Any whispers about Boris's intentions? I was expecting his decision to be in tomorrow's papers, but it's too late now. Is he planning to knife his fellow Old Etonian and Bullingdon Clubber shortly before Cameron gets interviewed by Andrew Marr tomorrow? What, and still get the OE invitations? I kind of doubt it. More likely he won't make a big bang but will squib it with a silly phrase that essentially means "Yeah, nice one, Dave", maybe tomorrow afternoon or evening when the world has stopped giving a damn.
The prior question is whether the City of London got what it wanted in the deal, and on the face of it it seems they probably did, even if one could reasonably add the words "for now". This is the "France wimped out" reading, which is no more than a guess. If Boris stabs, I'll reconsider.0 -
i think that Corbyn concentrates minds wonderfully.JohnO said:
Precisely so. You have to be a member of the tribe to understand it.TheScreamingEagles said:
My old constituency chairman who is someone who thinks it is a shame Bill Cash has never been Tory leader, has been in contact today, his view.JohnO said:Out of interest I wonder how many actual Conservative grassroots activists who pound the streets, canvass, attend party meetings etc post here? From memory, there's only TSE, MarqueeMark, Mortimer, Richard Nabavi, David Herdson and me.
I think we devide 3-2 for LEAVE with me still on the fence, albeit sliding back to Remain, but I don't think any of us believe we are heading for anything like civil war.
PS and Tissue Price too I believe.
Dave's giving us a referendum, he's not loaded it, he's let the cabinet oppose him, there's been no rancour, no resignations, may the best side win.
There's not going to be a split, he's not going to let that [expletives deleted] Corbyn become PM on my watch. We're not making the mistakes of 1992 to 1997 again.0
